The Polish economy, and especially the energy sector, is facing an energy transformation. For decades, most electricity in Poland has been generated from hard coal, but in recent years, renewable energy sources have been gaining an increasing share of the market. The aim of the energy transformation is to reduce the carbon footprint in electricity production, which translates into the decarbonization of the economy, including manufactured products. Currently (2024), increasing the share of renewable energy sources raises major challenges in terms of energy storage or other activities and forces cooperation with flexible sources of electricity generation. One of the challenges is to determine what a decarbonized energy mix in Poland could look like in 2050, in which there would be sources (with a smaller share of coal sources in the mix than currently) of electricity generation based on hard coal with CCS technology. In order to do this in an economically efficient manner, there are aspects related to the location of power plants that would remain in operation or repower current generating units. The added value of the study is the simulation approach to the analysis of the problem of assessing the effectiveness of CCS technology implementation together with the transport and storage infrastructure, as well as the multi-aspect scenario analysis, which can determine the limits of CCS technology effectiveness for a given power unit. Positive simulation results (NPV amounted to 147 million Euro) and the knowledge obtained in the scope of the correlated and simultaneous impact of many important cost factors and prices of CO2 emission allowances make this analysis and its results close to reality. Examples of analyses of the effectiveness of CCS system implementations known from the literature are most often limited to determining linear relationships of single explanatory variables with a specific forecasted variable, even if these are multifactor mathematical models.
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