Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectories Research Articles

Association between trajectories of systolic blood pressure and frailty outcome in middle-aged and older adults

ObjectivesThe association between blood pressure and frailty outcome in the middle-aged and older population remains controversial. This study aimed to examine the relationship between trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and new-onset frailty. DesignCohort study with a 7-year follow-up. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTSData were derived from 4 waves (2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and 6168 participants aged ≥45 years were included in the study. MethodsThe frailty index (FI) was constructed based on 40 scored items, with FI ≥ 0.25 defined as frailty. We identified the 5-year trajectory of SBP by latent class trajectory modeling. The association between SBP trajectories and frailty was explored based on hazard ratios (HR) by four Cox proportional hazards models. Furthermore, we also investigated the relationship between mean SBP and systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) and frailty. Results6168 participants were included in this study with a mean age of 59 years. We identified five trajectories based on SBP, which are maintained low-stable SBP (T0), moderate-stable SBP (T1), remitting then increasing SBP (T2), increasing then remitting SBP (T3), and remaining stable at high SBP levels (T4). During the 7-year follow-up period, frailty outcome occurred in 1415 participants. After adjusting for other confounders, the two trajectories labeled “T2” and “T4” were associated with a higher risk of frailty compared with T0. In addition, elevated SBP and increased SBPV were associated with risk of frailty. ConclusionsHigher risk of frailty occurred in two trajectories, remitting then increasing and remaining stable at high SBP levels, were associated with a relatively higher risk of frailty.

Combined blood pressure and heart rate trajectories are associated with prognosis in critically ill patients with acute aortic dissection: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

BackgroundManaging systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) is pivotal in acute aortic dissection (AAD) care. However, no prior studies have jointly analyzed the trajectories of these parameters. This research aimed to characterize their joint longitudinal trajectories and investigate the influence on AAD prognosis. MethodsWe included AAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Using group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBMTM), we identified combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within the initial 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Cox proportional hazard regression, log-binomial regression, and logistic regression were employed to assess the association between trajectory groups and mortality outcomes. ResultsData from 337 patients were analyzed. GBMTM identified five combined trajectory groups. Group 1 featured rapidly declining SBP and DBP with high pulse pressure and low HR; Group 2 showed high to moderate SBP with slight rebound and persistently low HR; Group 3 displayed persistently moderate BP and HR; Group 4 was characterized by moderate blood pressure with persistently high HR; and Group 5 had high to moderate SBP with slight rebound, high but gradually declining DBP, and slightly high HR. Group 3 demonstrated a lower risk of mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.32 (95 % CI, 0.14–0.74), and the adjusted relative risks for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities were 0.37 (95 % CI, 0.15–0.87), 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.10–0.62), and 0.41 (95 % CI, 0.22–0.79), respectively. The time-independent C-index curve demonstrated that the multi-trajectory groups had higher C-index values than any univariate trajectory groups or admission values of SBP, DBP, and HR. ConclusionsUtilization of GBMTM can yield data-driven insights to identify distinct subphenotypes in AAD patients. The combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within 24 h of ICU admission significantly influenced the mortality rate.

Twenty-four-hour blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in patients who had an acute ischaemic stroke

ObjectiveThe management of blood pressure (BP) in acute ischaemic stroke remains a subject of controversy. This investigation aimed to explore the relationship between 24-hour BP patterns following ischaemic stroke and...

First trimester plasma PER- AND Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) and blood pressure trajectories across the second and third trimesters of pregnancy

BackgroundEvidence suggests that exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) increases risk of high blood pressure (BP) during pregnancy. Prior studies did not examine associations with BP trajectory parameters (i.e., overall magnitude and velocity) during pregnancy, which is linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes. ObjectivesTo estimate associations of multiple plasma PFAS in early pregnancy with BP trajectory parameters across the second and third trimesters. To assess potential effect modification by maternal age and parity. MethodsIn 1297 individuals, we quantified six PFAS in plasma collected during early pregnancy (median gestational age: 9.4 weeks). We abstracted from medical records systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) measurements, recorded from 12 weeks gestation until delivery. BP trajectory parameters were estimated via Super Imposition by Translation and Rotation modeling. Subsequently, Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) was employed to estimate individual and joint associations of PFAS concentrations with trajectory parameters – adjusting for maternal age, race/ethnicity, pre-pregnancy body mass index, income, parity, smoking status, and seafood intake. We evaluated effect modification by age at enrollment and parity. ResultsWe collected a median of 13 BP measurements per participant. In BKMR, higher concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was independently associated with higher magnitude of overall SBP and DBP trajectories (i.e., upward shift of trajectories) and faster SBP trajectory velocity, holding all other PFAS at their medians. In stratified BKMR analyses, participants with ≥ 1 live birth had more pronounced positive associations between PFOS and SBP velocity, DBP magnitude, and DBP velocity – compared to nulliparous participants. We did not observe significant associations between concentrations of the overall PFAS mixture and either magnitude or velocity of the BP trajectories. ConclusionEarly pregnancy plasma PFOS concentrations were associated with altered BP trajectory in pregnancy, which may impact future cardiovascular health of the mother.

Time-dependent systolic blood pressure within 72h after endovascular treatment in large vessel occlusion stroke.

The association of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and ischemic stroke outcome has recently been proved to be varied at different time points within 72h after acute ischemic stroke onset; however, the specific status of how SBP affects prognosis at different time points within 72h after endovascular treatment (EVT) among patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) remains unclear. Consecutive LVO patients treated with EVT were enrolled in our study. BP data were collected at eight time points (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 24, 48, and 72h post-EVT). Outcome measure of interest was functional dependence, which was defined as mRS >2 at 90 days. A total of 406 LVO patients treated with EVT from 2016 to 2022 were included. At 16h after EVT, the relationship between SBP and functional dependence showed a nonlinear association. At other time points after EVT, SBP had linear relationships with functional dependence. Furthermore, higher SBP, as either a linear or quadratic term, had an adverse effect on functional outcome. In addition, three SBP trajectories were observed, and the high-to-low group was independently associated with functional dependence. Taken together, higher SBP within the first 72h after EVT has a time-dependent association with adverse clinical outcomes. Optimal blood pressure management during the first 72h after EVT may be important to improve clinical outcome.

Trends in blood pressure changes and hypertension prevalence in Australian adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Efforts to limit the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic led to the implementation of public health measures and reallocation of health resources. To investigate trends in blood pressure (BP), hypertension and BMI in the Australian population during the COVID-19 pandemic, data from publicly accessible health stations were analyzed. Average BP and BMI measured by the SiSU Health Station network in Australia in over 1.6 million health screenings were compared between the years 2018 and 2021. Additionally, paired trajectories for BP and BMI development before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were calculated. Comparisons between pre-COVID years and post-COVID years of 2018versus 2020, 2019versus 2020, 2018versus 2021, and 2019versus 2021 showed increases in average adjusted systolic BP of 2.0, 1.7, 2.6, and 2.3mmHg, respectively. Paired analysis of longitudinal data showed an overall increase in the trajectory of systolic BP of 3.2mmHg between pre- and post-COVID years. The prevalence of hypertension in users of the health stations increased by approximately 25% in the years 2020-2021. Similar trends were seen for BMI. Data from public Australian health stations indicated a strong trend toward higher BP during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the population level, BP increments have been shown to markedly increase cardiovascular disease risk. Anti-pandemic measures need to be carefully evaluated in terms of secondary public health effects and health support systems extended to effectively target cardiovascular risk.

Blood Pressure Trajectories and Outcomes After Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Data on systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories in the first 24 hours after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke are limited. We sought to identify these trajectories and their relationship to outcomes. We combined individual-level data from 5 studies of patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent EVT and had individual blood pressure values after the end of the procedure. We used group-based trajectory analysis to identify the number and shape of SBP trajectories post-EVT. We used mixed effects regression models to identify associations between trajectory groups and outcomes adjusting for potential confounders and reported the respective adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and common odds ratios. There were 2640 total patients with acute ischemic stroke included in the analysis. The most parsimonious model identified 4 distinct SBP trajectories, that is, general directional patterns after repeated SBP measurements: high, moderate-high, moderate, and low. Patients in the higher blood pressure trajectory groups were older, had a higher prevalence of vascular risk factors, presented with more severe stroke syndromes, and were less likely to achieve successful recanalization after the EVT. In the adjusted analyses, only patients in the high-SBP trajectory were found to have significantly higher odds of early neurological deterioration (aOR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.20-2.82]), intracranial hemorrhage (aOR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.31-2.59]), mortality (aOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.21-2.53), death or disability (aOR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.15-2.31]), and worse functional outcomes (adjusted common odds ratio,1.92 [95% CI, 1.47-2.50]). Patients follow distinct SBP trajectories in the first 24 hours after an EVT. Persistently elevated SBP after the procedure is associated with unfavorable short-term and long-term outcomes.

Early life cardiovascular risk factor trajectories and vascular aging in midlife: a 30-year prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Vascular aging, as assessed by structural and functional arterial properties, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to explore the associations of individual cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to midlife and their accumulation over a 30-year span with vascular aging in midlife. Methods Using data from the ongoing cohort of Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension study, 2180 participants aged 6 to 18 years at baseline were followed for over 30 years. Distinct trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), and heart rate (HR) from childhood to midlife were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Vascular aging was assessed by carotid intima–media thickness (cIMT) or brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). Results We identified 4 distinct SBP trajectories, 3 distinct BMI trajectories and 2 distinct HR trajectories from childhood to midlife. Persistently-increasing SBP, high-increasing BMI, and high-stable HR were all shown to have a positive association with baPWV in midlife. For cIMT, similar associations were observed for persistently-increasing SBP and high-increasing BMI. After further adjustment for SBP, BMI and HR at the time of vascular assessment in 2017, associations were also observed for cardiovascular risk factor trajectories accumulation with baPWV (β=0.656 (95%CI, 0.265-1.047)] and with cIMT [β=0.045 (95%CI, 0.011-0.079)] in adulthood. Conclusions Longitudinal exposure to individual cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to midlife and cardiovascular risk factor accumulation were associated with an increased risk of vascular aging in midlife. Our study lends support for early targeting of risk factors in order to prevent cardiovascular disease later in life.Long-term SBP, BMI, HR trajectories

Abstract 13490: Sex Differences in the Association of Multi-Ethnic Genome-Wide Blood Pressure Polygenic Risk Score With Population Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectories

Introduction: Sex differences in the systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories have been described previously. However, the contribution of underlying genetic architecture to the sex associated differences in SBP trajectories has not been assessed. Methods: Multiancestry sex-specific SBP polygenic risk scores (SBP-PRS), accumulating 1.1 million variants each, were calculated in the participants of the ARIC, JHS, CARDIA, CHS, MESA, FHS, and JHS who underwent whole genome sequencing under the TransOmics for Precision Medicine Program. Based on the SBP-PRS, the cohort was stratified into low (<20 th centile), intermediate (20 th -80 th centile), and high (>80 th centile) genetic risk of SBP. For individuals on antihypertensive medications, SBP measurements were corrected by adding 15 mmHg. Multivariable adjusted restricted cubic splines were used to depict the non-linear relationship of SBP with age in each sex separately. Bootstrapping using 1000 samples was used to estimate the age and 95% CIs at which the sex-specific SBP trajectories crossed over in each SBP-PRS group. Results: In this study of 21,542 individuals (median age: 56 years; 56.0% females; 35.8% non-White individuals), the non-linear association of SBP with age varied by sex (P interaction : <0.001) and SBP-PRS groups (P interaction : 0.05). On stratifying by SBP-PRS, females had a higher age-related increase in SBP compared with males across the groups (p<0.001 in low, intermediate, and high SBP-PRS groups). The age at which the SBP in females surpassed that of males progressively decreased with increasing genetic risk of SBP [low: 66.7 (66.4-67.0) years, intermediate: 64.3 (64.1-64.6) years, high: 55.8 (54.4-57.1) years; p: <0.001]. In the high SBP-PRS group, the sex-associated differences in SBP trajectories were modest with females and males having nearly similar SBP values in old age. Conclusion: The underlying genetic architecture may contribute to sex difference of SBP trajectories.

Change in physical activity and systolic blood pressure trajectories throughout mid-life and the development of dementia in older age: the HUNT study

BackgroundThere is lack of research on combinations of possible modifiable risk factors for dementia in a life-time perspective. Dementia has currently no cure, and therefore new knowledge of preventive factors is important. The purpose of this study is to investigate if changes in physical activity (PA) in combinations with systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories in mid to late life are related to development of dementia in older age.MethodsThis prospective cohort study uses data from four consecutive surveys of the HUNT Study, Norway. Dementia was assessed in the HUNT4 70 + sub-study (2017–19). Group-based trajectory modelling identified three SBP trajectories from HUNT1 (1984–86) to HUNT3 (2006–2008): low, middle, and high. Change in PA was categorized into four groups based on high or low PA level at HUNT1 and HUNT3 and were combined with the SBP trajectories resulting in 12 distinct categories. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of dementia.ResultsA total of 8487 participants (55% women, mean age (SD) 44.8 (6.5) years at HUNT1) were included. At HUNT4 70 + , 15.2% had dementia. We observed an overall decrease in OR of dementia across the PA/SBP categories when ranked from low to high PA (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.00, P = 0.04). Within PA groups, a low SBP trajectory was associated with lower OR for dementia, apart from those with decreasing PA. The strongest association was observed for people with stable high PA and low SBP trajectory (OR, 0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.13 to 1.10 and adjusted risk difference, -8.34 percentage points; 95% CI, -15.32 to -1.36).ConclusionOur findings illustrate the clinical importance of PA and SBP for dementia prevention and that favorable levels of both are associated with reduced occurrence of dementia.

Abstract P424: Postpartum Blood Pressure Trajectories After Hypertensive Disorders Of Pregnancy

Background: Following a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy, blood pressure (BP) generally decreases rapidly in the first three weeks postpartum followed by a period of stabilization. Little is known about patterns of deviation from this trend. Methods: Patients with hypertension during pregnancy (chronic, gestational, or during delivery hospitalization) were enrolled in a remote BP monitoring program and provided with a cell-enabled cuff to take daily BP measurements during their first six weeks postpartum. Measurements were transmitted to a portal and integrated with their electronic medical record. Patients delivering between January 2021 and December 2022 with ≥2 BP measures at an urban safety net hospital were included (n=1,571). Quadratic group-based trajectory models were used to identify latent patterns of postpartum systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) over time, a method that can be used to capture clinically distinct sub-groups of patients. Patients were grouped into one of four trajectories based on posterior probabilities. Demographic and reproductive characteristics of each trajectory group were examined. Results: Based on 1,571 patients with an average of 15 postpartum BP measurements per patient, the group trajectory model identified 4 trajectories of SBP and DBP (labeled as starting BP value-rate of BP decline): (1) low-steep (SBP 123, DBP 78), (2) moderate-steep (SBP 134, DBP 87), (3) high-gradual (SBP 143, DBP 93), and (4) high-flat (SBP 146, DBP 95). The percent of patients falling into each SBP trajectory group were (1)22.6 (n=346), (2)38.0 (n=611), (3)28.6 (n=451), (4)10.8 (n=163), and for DBP were (1)18.2 (n=288), (2)35.4 (n=557), (3)31.9 (n=508), and (4)14.4 (n=218). Key demographic and pregnancy characteristics varied across SBP and DBP trajectory groups. The high-flat groups were most likely to be older (≥36 years) and non-Hispanic Black. The high-flat SBP and DBP groups had the highest percentage of preterm births (26.4%, 43 out of 163; 20.6%, 45 out of 218, respectively). Conclusion: In this on-going observational study, we characterized 4 distinct group trajectories of SBP and DBP in the 6-weeks postpartum. These data may aid in the identification of patients at risk of persistent postpartum hypertension.

Associations between long-term blood pressure trajectory and all-cause and CVD mortality among old people in China.

Optimal blood pressure (BP) management strategy among the elderly remains controversial, with insufficient consideration of long-term BP trajectory. This study aimed to identify BP trajectory patterns as well as terminal BP trajectory among the Chinese elderly and to explore the relationships between BP trajectories and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We included 11,181 participants older than 60 at baseline (mean age, 80.98 ± 10.71) with 42,871 routine BP measurements from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Latent class trajectory analysis and Cox proportional hazard model were conducted to identify trajectory patterns and their associations with mortality. Furthermore, we also applied mixed-effects model to identify terminal BP trajectories among the elderly. Compared with stable at normal high level trajectory, excess systolic BP (SBP) trajectory with decreasing trend was associated with a 34% (HR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.23-1.45) higher risk of all-cause mortality. Considering the competing risk of non-CVD death, excess BP trajectory with decreasing trend had a more pronounced effect on CVD mortality, in which HR (95% CI) was 1.67 (1.17, 2.37). Similar results were also found in diastolic BP (DBP), pulse pressure (PP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) trajectories. We further conducted a mixed-effects model and observed that SBP and PP trajectories first increased and began to decline slightly six years before death. In contrast, DBP and MAP showed continuous decline 15 years before death. Long-term BP trajectory was associated with all-cause mortality, especially CVD mortality. Keeping a stable BP over time may be an important way for CVD prevention among the elderly.

Association of blood pressure trajectories with coronary heart disease among the disabled population in Shanghai, China: a cohort study of 7 years following up

BackgroundMuch less is known about the importance of blood pressure (BP) trajectories concerning the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in people with disabilities. Our aim was to evaluate this association.MethodsThis cohort study surveyed 5711 adults from the Shanghai Disability Health Survey from June 2012 to June 2019. The latent class growth mixture model was used to examine distinct BP trajectories. We evaluated the association of BP trajectories with the risk of CHD by Cox proportional hazard models. The model for CHD risk fitted to BP trajectories was compared with models fitted to other BP-related indicators by goodness-of-fit, discrimination, and calibration.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 71.74 months, 686 cases (median age was 49.03 (54.49, 58.55) years, 51.90% female) with CHD were identified, with a cumulative incidence of 12.01%. Systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were categorized into three classes, respectively. A statistically significant association was only observed between SBP trajectories and CHD. Compared with the normotensive stable SBP group (n = 1956), the prehypertension-stable group (n = 3268) had a higher risk (adjust hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.266, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.014–1.581), and the stage 1 hypertension-decreasing group (n = 487) had the highest risk (aHR = 1.609, 95%CI 1.157–2.238). Among the BP-related indicators, the SBP trajectory was the strongest predictor of new-onset CHD. Findings were similar when sensitivity analyses were conducted.ConclusionsSBP trajectory was a more important risk factor for CHD than other BP-related indicators and stringent BP control strategies may be effective for primary CHD prevention in the disabled population.

Associations of blood pressure trajectories in early life with target organ damage in midlife : a 30-year cohort study.

Hypertension is a pivotal factor in cardiovascular risk. However, the association of longitudinal blood pressure (BP) trajectories in the early life and cardiovascular risk assessed by target organ damage (TOD) in adulthood is poorly reported. The objective of this study was to identify the association between systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mean atrial pressure (MAP) trajectories early in life with a single or multiple TOD in later life. We identified BP trajectories from 6 to 45 year-old using group-based trajectory models among 2430 individuals in the Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Study and examined the relationship between BP trajectories and cardiovascular risk in later life. Four discrete long-term systolic BP, diastolic BP, and MAP trajectories were identified, namely, low stable, moderate stable, high stable (low increasing), and moderate increasing groups, based on the BP levels at baseline and in the 30-year follow-up. The carotid intima-media thickness were higher in persistently high or increasing trajectories in comparison to the low stable group. Individuals with deteriorative trajectories during early life were at an increased risk of suffering from a single TOD, including left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and carotid atherosclerosis (CA) in middle age (36-49 years old). Moreover, higher BP trajectories were correlated with the presence of combined TODs load stage which were assessed by CA, LVH, arteriosclerosis and subclinical renal damage (SRD). Higher longitudinal BP trajectories early in life were associated with increased cardiovascular risk in midlife, and identifying BP trajectories in early life can help screen individuals with TOD later. LVH, left Ventricular Hypertrophy; CA, carotid atherosclerosis; SRD, subclinical renal damage; TOD, target organ damage.

Comparison of BP variability, cumulative BP, and BP trajectory for predicting cardiovascular events in the general population

ObjectiveSystolic blood pressure variability (SBPV), cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP), and systolic blood pressure trajectory (trajSBP) are major indices describing characteristics of BP changes. The aim of this study was to compare their discrimination abilities for cardiovascular (CV) events. MethodsIn 51698 subjects, associations were assessed using Cox regression in the overall cohort and Framingham risk score (FRS) stratified groups. Individuals with <10%, 10%-20%, and >20% 10-year CV risk were categorized into the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively. Discrimination capabilities were evaluated using the area under curve (AUC), Harrell's C index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI). ResultsWithin a mean follow-up of 6.83 ± 0.89 years, 2330 participants had CV events, and all three markers were significantly associated with CV events. TrajSBP provided the best additional discriminative value for CV events, with improvements of 1.54% in AUC%, 0.01 in Harrell's C, 37.52% in NRI%, and 0.59% in IDI%. CumSBP had good additional discriminative capability in the intermediate to high FRS groups, but the effect sizes were smaller than those of trajSBP. Although, SBPV improved the predictive capabilities in the low-to intermediate-risk groups, the effect sizes were much smaller than those of the other indices. Sensitivity analyses excluding patients who underwent antihypertensive therapy revealed similar patterns but higher effect sizes than in the overall population. ConclusionTrajSBP provides the best additional discrimination capabilities based on traditional risk profiles and may assist the risk stratification and individual prediction for future CV events.

Early Pregnancy Systolic Blood Pressure Patterns Predict Early- and Later-Onset Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension Among Ostensibly Low-to-Moderate Risk Groups.

Background Clinical risk factors, a single blood pressure (BP) measurement, current biomarkers, and biophysical parameters can effectively identify risk of early-onset preeclampsia but have limited ability to predict later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Clinical BP patterns hold promise to improve early risk stratification for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Methods and Results After excluding preexisting hypertension, heart, kidney, or liver disease, or prior preeclampsia, the retrospective cohort (n=249 892) all had systolic BP <140 mm Hg and diastolic BP <90 mm Hg or a single BP elevation ≤20 weeks' gestation, prenatal care at <14 weeks' gestation, and a still or live birth delivery at Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals (2009-2019). The sample was randomly split into development (N=174 925; 70%) and validation (n=74 967; 30%) data sets. Predictive performance of multinomial logistic regression models for early-onset (<34 weeks) preeclampsia, later-onset (≥34 weeks) preeclampsia, and gestational hypertension was evaluated in the validation data set. There were 1008 (0.4%), 10 766 (4.3%), and 11 514 (4.6%) patients with early-onset preeclampsia, later-onset preeclampsia, and gestation hypertension, respectively. Models with 6 systolic BP trajectory groups (0-20 weeks' gestation) plus standard clinical risk factors performed substantially better than risk factors alone to predict early- and later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, with C-statistics (95% CIs) of 0.747 (0.720-0.775), 0.730 (0.722-0.739), and 0.768 (0.761-0.776) versus 0.688 (0.659-0.717), 0.695 (0.686-0.704) and 0.692 (0.683-0.701), respectively, with excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.99, 0.99, and 0.74, respectively). Conclusions Early pregnancy BP patterns up to 20 weeks' gestation plus clinical, social, and behavioral factors more accurately discriminate hypertensive disorders of pregnancy risk among low-to-moderate risk pregnancies. Early pregnancy BP trajectories improve risk stratification to reveal higher-risk individuals hidden within ostensibly low-to-moderate risk groups and lower-risk individuals considered at higher risk by US Preventive Services Task Force criteria.

Trajectory of blood pressure levels and weight gain in pregnant women: A group-based approach

Background and objectivesMorbidities associated with increased blood pressure levels during pregnancy represent one of the main causes of maternal mortality. The objective was to identify patterns of systolic blood pressure (SPB) trajectory in pregnant women undergoing prenatal care at the Unified Health System, and associations with weight gain trajectory, demographic, obstetric, anthropometric data, and health related behaviors. Methods and resultsCohort study with pregnant women using the public health services in Brazil. Data were collected through questionnaires and medical records. Trajectory patterns of SBP and weight gain were identified by a group-based trajectory model. For trajectory analysis, 460 women had SBP information available, totaling 2839 measurements, with an average of 6.2 measurements during pregnancy. Three SBP trajectory patterns were identified and classified as “Group 1” (48.0%), with a mean of 103 mmHg (95% CI 102.5–103.7 mmHg), “Group 2” (42.7%) with a mean of 114 mmHg (95% CI 113.7–114.9 mmHg), and “Group 3” (9.1%) with the highest mean SBP value of 130 mmHg (95% CI 128.8–131.5 mmHg). It was observed that regardless of the weight gain trajectory group, women classified in the group with the highest SBP had the highest SBP levels. The probability of being classified in Group 3 was higher among women with higher education, who started pregnancy presenting obesity, and who were using antihypertensive drugs. ConclusionThe probability of belonging to groups with a greater trajectory of SBP during pregnancy was associated with obesity, education, and hypertension under treatment.

EARLY LIFE CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTOR TRAJECTORIES AND VASCULAR AGING IN MIDLIFE: A 30-YEAR PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Objective: Vascular aging, as assessed by structural and functional arterial properties, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to explore the associations of individual cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to midlife and their accumulation over a 30-year span with vascular aging in midlife. Design and method: Using data from the ongoing cohort of Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension study, 2180 participants aged 6 to 18 years at baseline were followed for over 30 years. Distinct trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), and heart rate (HR) from childhood to midlife were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Vascular aging was assessed by carotid intima–media thickness (cIMT) or brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). Results: We identified 4 distinct SBP trajectories, 3 distinct BMI trajectories and 2 distinct HR trajectories from childhood to midlife. Persistently-increasing SBP, high-increasing BMI, and high-stable HR were all shown to have a positive association with baPWV in midlife. For cIMT, similar associations were observed for persistently-increasing SBP and high-increasing BMI. After further adjustment for SBP, BMI and HR at the time of vascular assessment in 2017, associations were also observed for cardiovascular risk factor trajectories accumulation with baPWV (↓ = 0.656 (95%CI, 0.265 - 1.047)] and with cIMT [↓ = 0.045 (95%CI, 0.011 - 0.079)] in adulthood. Conclusions: Longitudinal exposure to individual cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to midlife and cardiovascular risk factor accumulation were associated with an increased risk of vascular aging in midlife. Our study lends support for early targeting of risk factors in order to prevent cardiovascular disease later in life.

The longitudinal influence of ADHD status and stimulant medication on body mass index and blood pressure among youth with obesity.

Youth with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are more vulnerable to developing obesity. Stimulant medication use, an evidence-based treatment for ADHD, is associated with lower body mass index (BMI) and higher blood pressure among non-overweight youth. The purpose of this study was to examine the longitudinal influence of ADHD and stimulant medication use on BMI and blood pressure among a sample of 456 youth with overweight and obesity treated in a paediatric weight management clinic. Mixed linear modelling examined the main and interactive effects of time by ADHD status and stimulant medication use on BMI and blood pressure. Youth without ADHD experienced a significantly faster decrease in BMI compared to youth with ADHD (p < 0.001). Youth with ADHD who were taking stimulant medication had a significantly faster decrease in BMI compared to youth with ADHD who were not taking stimulant medication (p = 0.009). There was no significant effect of ADHD status or stimulant medication use on diastolic or systolic blood pressure trajectories over time (ps >0.05). Results from this study suggest that youth with ADHD who are not taking stimulant medication may not benefit from clinical weight management to the same extent as either youth without ADHD or youth with ADHD who are taking a stimulant medication.

Obesity Weight Loss Phenotypes in CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

Although people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and obesity have important motivations to lose weight, weight loss is also associated with health risks. We examined whether patterns of change in systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum albumin level, and fat-free mass (FFM) can help to differentiate between healthy and high-risk weight loss in this population. Using data from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC), we estimated a joint multivariate latent class model with 6 classes to identify distinct trajectories of body mass index (BMI), albumin, and SBP among participants with obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m2 at baseline), accounting for informative missingness from death. In a secondary analysis, we fit a 6-class model with BMI and FFM. Among 2831 participants (median baseline BMI 35.6, interquartile range [IQR] 32.4-40.0 kg/m2), median follow-up was 6.8 (IQR 4.8-12.9) years, median age was 61 (IQR 54-67) years, 53% were male, 50% were non-Hispanic Black, and 82% were trying to control or lose weight at baseline. Latent classes were associated with mortality risk (5-year cumulative incidence of mortality 6.8% and 1.5% in class 6 and 3, respectively). Class 6 had the highest mortality rate and was characterized by early, steep BMI loss, early serum albumin decline, and late SBP increase. In the secondary analysis, a class characterized by steep BMI and FFM loss was associated with the highest death risk. Among adults with CKD and obesity, BMI loss with concomitant serum albumin or FFM loss was associated with a high risk of death.