Traffic Speed Prediction Research Articles

Speed prediction and nearby road impact analysis using machine learning and ensemble of explainable AI techniques

Traffic speed prediction is an important topic in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). Although traffic speed prediction for real-life applications is burgeoning, the study of explaining and interpreting AI-based speed prediction is still in its initial stage. In this paper, we applied multiple advanced regression techniques, such as XGBoost and CatBoost optimized gradient boosting, Random Forest, and LASSO to predict traffic speed more accurately in the subsequent time windows. The experiment with prediction methods was conducted using the traffic speed data of the Seoul metropolitan road network. Each road segment represented as a node in the network is associated with neighboring roads within a configurable range. We picked heavily congested nodes as prediction targets. Then, we evaluated nearby road influences to determine critical contributions to the situation of the target nodes. We interpreted the model’s output and extracted the topmost influential neighboring nodes by using an ensemble of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques such as feature importance assessment using the GINI entropy function, Recursive Feature Elimination, Shapely Additive Explanation, and a method of measuring the impact of masked nodes. We validated the XAI interpretations through traffic flow simulation by tuning the topmost influential nearby roads’ speed and observing the effect on the roads’ traffic congestion relief correspondingly. We also proved our solution through local explanation techniques such as Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations. Our methods are applicable to any transport network and open the door to new strategies for controlling the specific nearby roads for effective congestion relief.

Short-Term Traffic Speed Prediction Based on AGC-LSTM with Multi-Source Data Integration

Short-Term Traffic Speed Prediction Based on AGC-LSTM with Multi-Source Data Integration

A traffic speed prediction algorithm for dynamic spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks based on attention mechanism

A traffic speed prediction algorithm for dynamic spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks based on attention mechanism

Traffic speed prediction of regional complex road network based on CapsNet and D-BiLSTM

Accurate and efficient short-term traffic prediction is of great significance in the study of regional traffic network. However, the complex and dynamic spatiotemporal correlation of traffic patterns makes the existing methods insufficient in learning traffic evolution in terms of structural depth and prediction scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning model combining capsule network (CapsNet) and deep bidirectional LSTM (D-BiLSTM). CapsNet is used to identify the spatial topological structure of the road network and extract spatial features, and D-BiLSTM network is integrated. The forward and backward dependencies of traffic states are considered at the same time, and the bidirectional temporal correlation of different historical periods is captured to predict the traffic of large-scale complex road networks in the target area. Experiments on real traffic network speed datasets show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is improved by more than 10% on average , which is better than other methods. It has high prediction accuracy and good robustness in traffic prediction of regional complex road networks.

Deep Learning for Traffic Prediction and Trend Deviation Identification: A Case Study in Hong Kong

This paper introduces a robust methodology for predicting traffic volume and speed on major strategic routes in Hong Kong by leveraging data from data.gov.hk and utilizing deep learning models. The approach offers predictions from 6 min to 1 h, considering detector reliability. By extracting hidden deep features from historical detector data to establish detector profiles and grouping detectors into clusters based on profile similarities, the method employs a CNN-LSTM prediction model for each cluster. The study demonstrates the model’s resilience to detector failures, with tests conducted across failure rates from 1% to 20%, highlighting its ability to maintain accurate predictions despite random failures. In scenarios without failed detectors, the method achieves favorable performance metrics: MAE, RMSE, and MAPE for traffic volume prediction over the next 6 min stand at 5.17 vehicles/6 min, 7.64 vehicles/6 min, and 14.07%, respectively, while for traffic speed prediction, the values are 3.70 km/h, 6.32 km/h, and 6.33%. Considering a failure rate of approximately 6% in the Hong Kong dataset, in simulated scenarios with 6% failures, the model maintains its predictive accuracy, with average MAE, RMSE, and MAPE for traffic volume prediction at 5.24 vehicles/6 min, 7.81 vehicles/6 min, and 14.21%, and for traffic speed prediction at 3.87 km/h, 6.55 km/h, and 6.68%. However, the limitation of the proposed method is its potential to underperform when predicting rare or unseen scenarios, indicating the need for future research to incorporate additional data sources and methods to enhance predictive performance.

Multimodal fusion for large-scale traffic prediction with heterogeneous retentive networks

Traffic speed prediction is a critical challenge in transportation research due to the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of urban mobility. This study proposes a novel framework for fusing diverse data modalities to enhance short-term traffic speed forecasting accuracy. We introduce the Heterogeneous Retentive Network (H-RetNet), which integrates multisource urban data into high-dimensional representations encoded with geospatial relationships. By combining the H-RetNet with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), our model captures intricate spatial and temporal correlations. We validate the approach using a real-world Beijing traffic dataset encompassing social media, real estate, and point of interest data. Experiments demonstrate superior performance over existing methods, with the fusion architecture improving robustness. Specifically, we observe a 21.91% reduction in MSE, underscoring the potential of our framework to inform and enhance traffic management strategies.

Traffic Speed Prediction Based on Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Attention Graph Convolutional Network

Abstract The prediction of traffic speed represents a crucial branch within the broader field of traffic forecasting. Its objective is to forecast the average speed or speed distribution on road segments or within a network for a designated future time period . The prediction results can provide scientific decision support for traffic management departments to effectively control and guide traffic flow. However, given the limitations of urban road network topology and its dynamic temporal shifts, traffic prediction has consistently been deemed a perpetual scientific challenge. To simultaneously encapsulate both spatial and temporal dependencies, we introduce an innovative Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Attention Network (DSTANet). This model integrates spatio-temporal attention with graph convolutional networks and temporal convolution to enhance its analytical capabilities. Specifically, the graph convolutional network is leveraged to learn the intricate topology for capturing spatial relations, while temporal convolution is employed to ascertain the dynamic fluctuations of traffic data, thereby acquiring temporal dependencies. Subsequently, we implement our model to forecast traffic patterns within the framework of road networks. Experimental results demonstrate that our model effectively captures the spatio-temporal dependencies among roadway junctions derived from traffic data, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world traffic datasets in terms of predictive accuracy.

A Novel Traffic Speed Prediction for Road Weaving Sections: Incorporating Traffic Flow Characteristics

Weaving sections on roads are crucial areas with high concentrations of mandatory lane changes, which can increase the likelihood of traffic accidents. Speed is a key factor in determining traffic safety, and the development of an accurate speed prediction method is essential for improving safety in weaving sections. While current methods are effective in predicting speeds in straightforward situations, they face challenges in more complex scenarios such as weaving sections. This study presents a refined traffic speed prediction approach specifically designed for weaving sections in order to tackle the aforementioned issue. Initially, novel variables were formulated to capture the unique traffic flow attributes present in weaving sections, which distinguish them from standard road segments. Subsequently, supplementary empirical variables that are known to impact speed were incorporated. We conducted a variable importance assessment to ascertain the extent and direction of each variable’s contribution. Lastly, variables with significant positive effects were chosen as inputs for three machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Backpropagation Neural Network optimised with Genetic Algorithm (BPNN-GA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). This method was evaluated using aerial footage from five distinct weaving sections in China, maintaining an approximately 3 km/h prediction error. In addition, the study also finds that the speed distribution in weaving sections is negatively correlated with the number of lane-changing. Vehicles experience deceleration at both on-ramp and off-ramp, with a more significant deceleration occurring at the on-ramp. Speed is significantly affected by short length, number of lanes and proportion of large vehicles. The proposed method can be embedded into intelligent traffic systems for safe speeds of autonomous vehicles in weaving sections. Reconstructing spatiotemporal patterns of traffic congestion, predicting traffic accidents and implementing active traffic management strategies in weaving sections could be investigated in the future.

Dynamic attention aggregated missing spatial–temporal data imputation for traffic speed prediction

Traffic speed forecasting is indispensable in Intelligent Traffic Systems (ITS). The missing traffic speed due to sensors’ failure may hamper the accurate prediction of traffic speed. Different kinds of imputation techniques were employed to replace the missing values considering the spatial and temporal information. However, previous techniques did not consider the dynamic contribution of the neighboring nodes and failed to capture the complex properties of traffic speed data precisely. The architecture of the previous imputation models was infeasible in real-time applications in terms of scalability. Therefore, a novel machine learning-based imputation technique is proposed to generate the missing traffic speed using the spatial–temporal information and dynamic contribution of neighboring nodes. A new dataset considering the characteristics of the traffic speed data is generated from the existing dataset by exploiting the non-missing traffic speed of neighboring nodes. The newly formed dataset helps in the estimation of the dynamic contribution of the neighboring nodes using the linear regression algorithm. The non-missing speeds and estimated dynamic contribution of neighboring nodes assist in calculating the missing speeds of a node. Furthermore, a novel deep learning-based prediction model is introduced to forecast traffic speed accurately. The prediction model contains graph structure learning, a deep graph neural network with skip connections, GRU, multi-head soft attention, and a fully connected neural network. Graph structure learning is proposed based on the distribution of the congestion to represent the graph in an efficient way. The deep graph neural network with skip connections and GRU help in capturing topological and temporal information, respectively. The multi-head soft attention is designed to focus on every relevant temporal information at each time step for capturing global traffic information. Finally, the extracted spatial–temporal features are fed into the fully connected neural network to predict the traffic speed. The proposed imputation and prediction models are evaluated on two real-time datasets, METR-LA and PeMSD7 datasets, under different missing rates of different missing patterns. The proposed framework generates possible spatial–temporal information for efficient traffic congestion management and evicts erroneous issues in real-time.

Integrating Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks with Convolutional Neural Networks for Predicting Short-Term Traffic Speed in Urban Road Networks

The rapid expansion of large urban areas underscores the critical importance of road infrastructure. An accurate understanding of traffic flow on road networks is essential for enhancing civil services and reducing fuel consumption. However, traffic flow is influenced by a complex array of factors and perpetually changing conditions, making comprehensive prediction of road network behavior challenging. Recent research has leveraged deep learning techniques to identify and forecast traffic flow and road network conditions, enhancing prediction accuracy by extracting key features from diverse factors. In this study, we performed short-term traffic speed predictions for road networks using data from Mobileye sensors mounted on taxis in Daegu City, Republic of Korea. These sensors capture the road network flow environment and the driver’s intentions. Utilizing these data, we integrated convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks (STGCNs). Our experimental results demonstrated that the combined STGCN and CNN model outperformed the standalone STGCN and CNN models. The findings of this study contribute to the advancement of short-term traffic speed prediction models, thereby improving road network flow management.

Multistep traffic speed prediction from multiple time-scale spatiotemporal features using graph attention network

Multistep traffic speed prediction from multiple time-scale spatiotemporal features using graph attention network

A Novel Spatiotemporal Periodic Polynomial Model for Predicting Road Traffic Speed

Accurate and fast traffic prediction is the data-based foundation for achieving traffic control and management, and the accuracy of prediction results will directly affect the effectiveness of traffic control and management. This paper proposes a new spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model for road traffic, which integrates the temporal, spatial, and periodic features of speed time series and can effectively handle the nonlinear mapping relationship from input to output. In terms of the model, we establish a road traffic speed prediction model based on polynomial regression. In terms of spatial feature extraction methods, we introduce a maximum mutual information coefficient spatial feature extraction method. In terms of periodic feature extraction methods, we introduce a periodic trend modeling method into the prediction of speed time series, and effective fusion is carried out. Four strategies are evaluated based on the Guangzhou road speed dataset: a univariate polynomial model, a spatiotemporal polynomial model, a periodic polynomial model, and a spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model. The test results show that the three methods proposed in this article can effectively improve prediction accuracy. Comparing the spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model with multiple machine learning models and deep learning models, the prediction accuracy is improved by 5.94% compared to the best feedforward neural network. The research in this article can effectively deal with the temporal, spatial, periodic, and nonlinear characteristics of speed prediction, and to a certain extent, improve the accuracy of speed prediction.

A novel real-time data driven method for floating vehicle speed trend prediction

Traffic congestion in urban areas has become a major worldwide problem. As an important direction of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), traffic-speed prediction can help drivers better plan routes and shorten travel time according to IOT techniques, thereby effectively alleviating the problem of traffic congestion. Traffic speed changes dynamically over time, so forecasting using historical data may not be able to quickly adapt to sudden changes in traffic conditions, and predicted traffic conditions may lag behind. The use of real-time data can capture instantaneous changes in traffic conditions, which is more adaptable to different traffic scenarios. In order to further explore the advantages of using real-time data for traffic forecasting, a novel real-time Data Driven method for traffic Speed trend Prediction (2DSP) is proposed. The 2DSP method can predict the macro-level traffic speed trend (rising or falling) by using only near-real-time microscopic vehicle information, which effectively captures the dynamic changes in traffic speed. In addition, an adaptive time-slicing strategy based on traffic density is proposed. This strategy dynamically divides time slices based on traffic density, reducing the frequency of data processing and improving the user experience. The effectiveness of the 2DSP method is validated using two real traffic datasets of floating vehicles. The experimental results show that the 2DSP method has good potential for real-time traffic-speed trend prediction.

Traffic prediction via clustering and deep transfer learning with limited data

AbstractThis paper proposes a method based on the clustering algorithm, deep learning, and transfer learning (TL) for short‐term traffic prediction with limited data. To address the challenges posed by limited data and the complex and diverse traffic patterns observed in traffic networks, we propose a profile model based on few‐shot learning to extract each detector's unique profiles. These profiles are then used to cluster detectors with similar patterns into distinct clusters, facilitating effective learning with limited data. A Convolutional Neural Network ‐ Long Short‐Term Memory (CNN‐LSTM)‐based predictive model is proposed to learn and predict traffic volumes for each detector within a cluster. The proposed method demonstrates resilience to detector failures and has been validated using the Performance Measurement System dataset. In scenarios with less than 2 months of training data and 10% failed detectors, the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for station‐level traffic volume prediction increase from 12.7 vehs/5 min, 20.9 vehs/5 min, and 10.5% to 13.9 vehs/5 min, 24.2 vehs/5 min, and 11.7%, respectively. For lane‐level traffic volume prediction, the average MAE, RMSE, and MAPE increase from 4.7 vehs/5 min, 7.7 vehs/5 min, and 15% to 5.6 vehs/5 min, 9.6 vehs/5 min, and 16.8%. Furthermore, the proposed method extends its applicability to traffic speed and occupancy prediction tasks. TL is integrated to improve speed/occupancy prediction accuracy by leveraging knowledge obtained from traffic volume, considering the correlation between traffic flow, speed, and occupancy. When less than 1 month of traffic speed/occupancy data is available for learning, the proposed method achieves an MAE, RMSE, and MAPE of 0.7 km/h, 1.3 km/h, and 1.3% for station‐level traffic speed prediction and 0.5%, 1.1%, and 11% for station‐level traffic occupancy.

Online Multi-Agent Forecasting With Interpretable Collaborative Graph Neural Networks.

This article considers predicting future statuses of multiple agents in an online fashion by exploiting dynamic interactions in the system. We propose a novel collaborative prediction unit (CoPU), which aggregates the predictions from multiple collaborative predictors according to a collaborative graph. Each collaborative predictor is trained to predict the agent status by integrating the impact of another agent. The edge weights of the collaborative graph reflect the importance of each predictor. The collaborative graph is adjusted online by multiplicative update, which can be motivated by minimizing an explicit objective. With this objective, we also conduct regret analysis to indicate that, along with training, our CoPU achieves similar performance with the best individual collaborative predictor in hindsight. This theoretical interpretability distinguishes our method from many other graph networks. To progressively refine predictions, multiple CoPUs are stacked to form a collaborative graph neural network. Extensive experiments are conducted on three tasks: online simulated trajectory prediction, online human motion prediction, and online traffic speed prediction, and our methods outperform state-of-the-art works on the three tasks by 28.6%, 17.4%, and 21.0% on average, respectively; in addition, the proposed CoGNNs have lower average time costs in one online training/testing iteration than most previous methods.

Dynamic Spatiotemporal Correlation Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Speed Prediction

Accurate and real-time traffic speed prediction remains challenging due to the irregularity and asymmetry of real-traffic road networks. Existing models based on graph convolutional networks commonly use multi-layer graph convolution to extract an undirected static adjacency matrix to map the correlation of nodes, which ignores the dynamic symmetry change of correlation over time and faces the challenge of oversmoothing during training iterations, making it difficult to learn the spatial structure and temporal trend of the traffic network. To overcome the above challenges, we propose a novel multi-head self-attention gated spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSGSGCN) for traffic speed prediction. The MSGSGCN model mainly consists of the Node Correlation Estimator (NCE) module, the Time Residual Learner (TRL) module, and the Gated Graph Convolutional Fusion (GGCF) module. Specifically, the NCE module aims to capture the dynamic spatiotemporal correlations between nodes. The TRL module utilizes a residual structure to learn the long-term temporal features of traffic data. The GGCF module relies on adaptive diffusion graph convolution and gated recurrent units to learn the key spatial features of traffic data. Experimental analysis on a pair of real-world datasets indicates that the proposed MSGSGCN model enhances prediction accuracy by more than 4% when contrasted with state-of-the-art models.

Traffic Congestion Prediction Using Feature Series LSTM Neural Network and a New Congestion Index

Large and expanding cities suffer from a traffic congestion problem that harms the environment, travelers, and the economy. This paper aims to predict short term traffic congestion on a road section of expressway in Delhi city. For this purpose, we first propose a traffic congestion index based on traffic speed and flow. Clustering techniques and the Greenshield’s model were used for the derivation of the congestion index. Using this congestion index, congested time intervals of each day and each location of a weekday were identified. This study also introduces a feature series long short-term memory neural network (FSLSTMNN), which links a long short-term memory (LSTM) layer to each feature. It is trained using the many heterogeneous traffic features data collected in Delhi city for the next five minutes of traffic flow and speed prediction. FSLSTMNN achieved the good capability to learn feature series data. We also trained several traditional and deep-learning models using the same traffic data. The FSLSTMNN reduces mean absolute error 12.90% and 17.13%, respectively, in speed and traffic flow prediction compared to the second good-performance long short-term memory neural network (LSTMNN). Finally, traffic congestion is predicted classwise (light, medium, and congested) using the developed congestion index and traffic speed and flow predicted by the FSLSTMNN. Predicted results are consistent with the measured field data. Study results confirm that the developed congestion index and FSLSTMNN can be used successfully to predict traffic congestion.

Multistep traffic speed prediction: A sequence-to-sequence spatio-temporal attention model

Multistep traffic speed prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating road congestion and improving transport efficiency. In actual traffic networks, the spatio-temporal dependence among roads dynamically changes over time due to factors such as road conditions and unforeseen incidents, which brings great challenges to multistep traffic speed prediction. Additionally, multistep traffic speed prediction commonly faces the problem of error accumulation, resulting in a loss of prediction accuracy. To address these issues, we propose a Sequence-to-Sequence Spatio-Temporal Attention model (STSSTA) for multistep traffic speed prediction. Specifically, we build an adaptive tuning module to select road preferences and automatically obtain global information about the roads. Then we construct a Sequence-to-Sequence architecture for spatio-temporal feature learning and multistep traffic speed prediction. In particular, in the encoder, we design a Diffusion Graph Convolutional Network (DGCN) and combine it with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to effectively capture the complex spatio-temporal features within the traffic networks. In the decoder, we introduce a Recalling attention mechanism to alleviate the problem of local information loss caused by encoder compression, thereby reducing error accumulation in multistep prediction. Experiments on METR-LA and PeMS-BAY datasets demonstrate that STSSTA outperforms the baseline models in long-term prediction.

Improving Road Traffic Speed Prediction Using Data Augmentation: A Deep Generative Models-based Approach

Improving Road Traffic Speed Prediction Using Data Augmentation: A Deep Generative Models-based Approach

A Novel Deep Stacking-Based Ensemble Approach for Short-Term Traffic Speed Prediction

A Novel Deep Stacking-Based Ensemble Approach for Short-Term Traffic Speed Prediction