Traffic Safety Strategies Research Articles

A Stochastic Model to Predict Road Accidents in Albania

The importance of predicting accident rates lies in the improvement of road infrastructure and the effective implementation of laws and traffic regulations. The statistical change of many phenomena over time is described by time series. This paper aims to forecast the number of individuals involved in road accidents in Albania by applying SARIMA model approach. This study used monthly number of individuals involved in road traffic accidents in Albania from 2016 to 2023. Using forecasting techniques for the number of traffic accidents can serve as a valuable strategy for achieving various objectives including the implementation of traffic safety campaigns, strategies, and action plans outlined in traffic safety initiatives. The model was found to be effective in capturing the underlying patterns and trends in the data, providing valuable insights for understanding and forecasting traffic accident occurrences in Albania.

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Analysis of Provincial Road Traffic Accidents and Its Influencing Factors in China

To objectively evaluate the road traffic safety levels across different provinces in China, this study investigated the spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics of macro factors influencing road traffic accidents. Panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2021 were collected, and after data preprocessing, traffic accident data were selected as the dependent variables. Population size, economic level, motorization level, highway mileage, unemployment rate, and passenger volume were selected as explanatory variables. Based on the spatiotemporal non-stationarity testing of traffic accident data, three models, namely, ordinary least squares (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), were constructed for empirical research. The results showed that the spatiotemporal heterogeneity characterizing the macro factors of traffic accidents could not be ignored. In terms of impact effects, highway mileage, population size, motorization level and passenger volume had positive promoting effects on road traffic accidents, while economic level and unemployment rate mainly exhibited negative inhibitory effects. In terms of impact magnitude, highway mileage had the greatest impact on traffic accidents, followed by population size, motorization level, and passenger volume. Comparatively, the impact magnitude of economic level and unemployment rate was relatively small. The conclusions were aimed at contributing to the objective evaluation of road traffic safety levels in different provinces and providing a basis for the formulation of reasonable macro traffic safety planning and management decisions. The findings offer valuable insights that can be used to optimize regional traffic safety policies and strategies, thereby enhancing road safety.

Analysis of traffic accidents based on Spark and causal inference

Traffic accidents have occurred frequently in recent years, causing great losses to personal and property safety. Studying traffic accident data is helpful to identify key factors of traffic accidents from big data. This paper processes and calculates big data based on the Spark platform. By introducing causal inference into the analysis of traffic accidents, it establishes the causal relationships between 17 factors and the severity of traffic accidents, thereby analyzing the root causes and intermediate causes of the accidents. In addition, this paper also conducts an intervention study to evaluate the influence weight of each factor. The study finds that the physical conditions of pedestrians and weather conditions are inferred to be the root causes, and the others are intermediate causes. Besides that, the presence of police force and reduced traffic volume are considered to be the best ways to reduce traffic accidents. Therefore, this article believes that in real life, we should reduce the incidence of traffic accidents by controlling traffic flow and increasing patrol or on-duty police force. These findings provide a scientific basis for traffic management departments to develop more effective traffic safety strategies.

Effectiveness of Data Imbalance Treatment in Weather-Related Crash Severity Analysis

Accurate predictive modeling is often hindered by the prevalent issue of class imbalance within weather-related crash datasets. To address this critical challenge, this study introduces a novel and tailored synthetic data generation technique aimed at effectively handling nominal predictors specific to weather-related crash cases in North Carolina. Data treatment techniques such as the synthetic minority over-sampling technique-nominal (SMOTE-N) and adaptive synthetic-nominal (ADASYN-N) were investigated in this study. A comprehensive comparison of these data treatment techniques is conducted using two prominent machine learning models: the bagging algorithm (random forest [RF]) and the boosting algorithm (extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]). The findings indicate that the effectiveness of data treatment varies with the severity level and the algorithm used. The ADASYN-N technique was observed to be highly effective for severe and moderate injury crash prediction using both the RF and XGBoost models, while the control dataset and SMOTE-N demonstrated notable performance in property damage only crash prediction using both the RF and XGBoost models. The findings from evaluating the performance of these models with data treatment methods serve as a benchmark for practitioners in selecting appropriate synthetic sample generation techniques, consequently facilitating the development of more accurate crash severity prediction models and contributing to enhanced traffic safety strategies.

Identifying spatiotemporal variability of traffic accident mortality. Evidence from the City of Belgrade, Serbia

Traffic accident mortality (TAM) is a significant global problem and is a part of the sustainable development goals strategy. In Serbia, a decline in the number of deaths in traffic accidents is evident, but in certain time intervals and areas, the number of deaths is higher than in others. This paper adopted Joinpoint regression analysis and a geospatial approach to assessing spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal mortality variability due to traffic accidents in Belgrade from 2016 to 2021. Results suggested statistically significant change during each year and spatial clustering of higher values of deaths in central Belgrade municipalities. Spatiotemporal analysis of traffic accidents data indicated a change in spatial clusters over time, pointing out two types of hotspots for traffic accident mortality—Sporadic- and New hotspots along the international highway, main, and local roads, in the broader area of the city. The main findings of this paper pointed to the areas in Belgrade where the population is more endangered in traffic compared to others. The obtained results and conclusions can serve traffic managers and decision-makers as a basis for more detailed research and local-specific traffic safety strategies.

Hotspot analysis of single-vehicle lane departure crashes in North Dakota

According to the North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT), 90% of the state's fatal lane departure crashes between 2015 and 2019 occurred on rural roads. Of these, 77% were single-vehicle events. The objective here was to identify relatively high-risk areas on the rural road system. Spatial analysis techniques were explored as a beneficial tool in resource allocations aimed at single-vehicle crash prevention. Hotspot identification techniques, including Global Moran's I, local Moran's I, network kernel density estimation (NetKDE), and emerging hotspot analysis were employed. While the Global Moran's I index indicated the existence of crash clustering, the local Moran's I statistic revealed hot and cold spots in the state. The NetKDE approach was used to quantify crash clusters and prioritize locations. Results from NetKDE defined boundaries for each cluster in terms of density values embedded in the roadway. Emerging hotspot analysis evaluated the hot and cold spots with respect to time. This study will provide valuable insight and help decision makers to make more informed decisions with respect to education, enforcement and infrastructure strategies aimed at preventing single-vehicle lane departure crashes. Although limited to a narrow crash type in one state, this approach can inform other jurisdictions seeking to empirically visualize hotspots and more effectively deploy traffic safety strategies.

SARIMA Modelling Approach for Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

To achieve greater sustainability of the traffic system, the trend of traffic accidents in road traffic was analysed. Injuries from traffic accidents are among the leading factors in the suffering of people around the world. Injuries from road traffic accidents are predicted to be the third leading factor contributing to human deaths. Road traffic accidents have decreased in most countries during the last decade because of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. The main reasons behind the reduction of traffic accidents are improvements in the construction of vehicles and roads, the training and education of drivers, and advances in medical technology and medical care. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the pattern in the time series of traffic accidents in the city of Belgrade. Time series have been analysed using exploratory data analysis to describe and understand the data, the method of regression and the Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The study found that the time series has a pronounced seasonal character. The model presented in the paper has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.22% and can be seen as an indicator that the prognosis is acceptably accurate. The forecasting, in the context of number of a traffic accidents, may be a strategy to achieve different goals such as traffic safety campaigns, traffic safety strategies and action plans to achieve the objectives defined in traffic safety strategies.

Exploration of the characteristics and trends of electric vehicle crashes: a case study in Norway

With the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in the past decade, many new traffic safety challenges are also emerging. With the crash data of Norway from 2011 to 2018, this study gives an overview of the status quo of EV crashes. In the survey period, the proportion of EV crashes in total traffic crashes had risen from zero to 3.11% in Norway. However, in terms of severity, EV crashes do not show statistically significant differences from the Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) crashes. Compared to ICEV crashes, the occurrence of EV crashes features on weekday peak hours, urban areas, roadway junctions, low-speed roadways, and good visibility scenarios, which can be attributed to the fact that EVs are mainly used for urban local commuting travels in Norway. Besides, EVs are confirmed to be much more likely to collide with cyclists and pedestrians, probably due to their low-noise engines. Then, the separate logistic regression models are built to identify important factors influencing the severity of ICEV and EV crashes, respectively. Many factors show very different effects on ICEV and EV crashes, which implies the necessity of re-evaluating many current traffic safety strategies in the face of the EV era. Although the Norway data is analyzed here, the findings are expected to provide new insights to other countries also in the process of the complete automotive electrification.

Effects of Mobile Phone Use on Driving Performance: An Experimental Study of Workload and Traffic Violations.

The use of communication technologies, e.g., mobile phones, has increased dramatically in recent years, and their use among drivers has become a great risk to traffic safety. The present study assessed the workload and road ordinary violations, utilizing driving data collected from 39 young participants who underwent a dual-task while driving a simulator, i.e., respond to a call, text on WhatsApp, and check Instagram. Findings confirmed that there are significant differences in the driving performance of young drivers in terms of vehicle control (i.e., lateral distance and hard shoulder line violations) between distracted and non-distracted drivers. Furthermore, the overall workload score of young drivers increases with the use of their mobile phones while driving. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of the driving performance of distracted young drivers and thus they could be useful for further improvements to traffic safety strategies.

Towards the Development of Traffic Safety Strategies in Developing Countries: Analysis of Road Users’ Perspective

The rapid growth of automobile ownership and use in developing countries resulted in an exponential growth in road traffic related fatalities and injuries. It is estimated that 1.25 million road traffic deaths occur in the world every year (WHO, 2015), most of them in developing countries in which more than 51% are vulnerable road users. The complexity and unexpected nature of the traffic accidents put the decision makers confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of measures to reduce traffic accidents. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyze the selection of the traffic safety strategies and to identify key selection measures. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two methods: the Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first method aims to collect general views from road users to identify the traffic problems, while AHP method was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the selected measures.

Toward more comprehensive evaluation of traffic risks and safety strategies

Despite large investments in traffic safety programs and technologies, motor vehicle accidents continue to impose high social costs. New strategies will be needed to achieve ambitious traffic safety targets such as Vision Zero. Recent research improves our understanding of factors that affect traffic risks and ways to increase traffic safety. Applying this knowledge requires a paradigm shift, a change in the way we define problems and evaluate potential solutions. The old paradigm assumed that driving is generally safe and favored targeted safety programs that reduce special risks such as youth, senior, impaired and distracted driving. The new paradigm recognizes that all vehicle travel imposes risks, and so, in addition to targeted programs also supports vehicle travel reduction strategies such as more multimodal planning, efficient transport pricing, Smart Growth development policies and TDM programs. These strategies tend to provide large co-benefits, in addition to safety. This article examines our emerging understanding of traffic risks and new ways to increase safety.

Optimal Road Congestion Pricing for Both Traffic Efficiency and Safety under Demand Uncertainty

AbstractThe impacts of road congestion charges on traffic safety are often overlooked in evaluating the benefits of congestion charging practices and searching for traffic safety strategies. This p...

Relationship of traffic fatality rates to maximum state speed limits

ABSTRACTObjectives: The objective of this study was to examine the safety effects of increases in U.S. state maximum speed limits during the period 1993–2013.Methods: Poisson regression was used to model state-by-state annual traffic fatality rates per mile of travel as a function of time, the unemployment rate, the percentage of the driving age population that was younger than 25, per capita alcohol consumption, and the maximum posted speed limit on any road in the state. Separate analyses were conducted for all roads, interstates and freeways, and all other roads.Results: A 5 mph increase in the maximum state speed limit was associated with an 8% increase in fatality rates on interstates and freeways and a 4% increase on other roads. In total, there were an estimated 33,000 more traffic fatalities during the years 1995–2013 than would have been expected if maximum speed limits had not increased. In 2013 alone, there were approximately 1,900 additional deaths—500 on interstates/freeways and 1,400 on other roads.Conclusions: There is a definite trend of increased fatality risk when speed limits are raised. As roadway sections with higher speed limits have become more ubiquitous, the increase in fatality risk has extended beyond these roadways. The increase in risk has been so great that it has now largely offset the beneficial effects of some other traffic safety strategies. State policy makers should keep this trade-off in mind when considering proposals to raise speed limits.

Relationships between the motorcyclists’ behavioural perception and their actual behaviour

The paper deals with studying the relationships between the motorcyclists’ thinking about proper behaviour and their actual behaviour in the traffic. The impact of some control variables, such as riders’ age, experience, driving history, and engine cubature, on actual behaviour, is also addressed here. For the purpose of research, two additional questionnaires were applied besides the well-known Motorcycle Rider Behaviour Questionnaire (MRBQ). To examine the causal relations between all-important latent factors present in this study, the structural equation model was designed. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were also engaged in the analysis and the statistical modelling process. The results show that the higher awareness about alcohol danger and benefits of protective equipment and helmet can noticeably contribute to the bigger traffic safety. Besides, from the results is evident that the control variables are in most cases also significantly interrelated with the actual behaviour factors. The findings of this research could be important for the planning of better traffic safety strategies for the motorcyclists to decrease the fatalities and related costs and traumas.

Traffic fatality trends in four continents based micro level data for three decades

Traffic fatality data for four continents, namely Asia, Africa, Europe and North America, are analysed and modelled here. The analysis is based on gathered traffic death frequencies and rates for over three decades considering 176 countries within the four continents. The predicted values for the coming decade, based on best regression fits, are also analysed. The data sums to over 28,000 records. Official publications, well-known databases, journal papers, official web-sites and personal correspondance were manily employed in collecting the necessary data. While fatlity and vehicular data for the developed countries and few other less developed countries take no time to compile; those for most of the other countries are highly time consuming and distracting, due to the presence of conflicting data, to be processed. It took over three years to gather such data. Such large gathered data for such long period of time are yet not observed in the literature using the common means. Moreover, while future trends of traffic fatalities in Europe and North America are very common and widely presented; that in Asia and Africa are very scarce and lack accuracy due to lack of long-term data. The results indicate that traffic fatalities in Asia and Africa raised from 153 thousands and 46 thousands during 1980 to 384 thousands and 90 thousands deaths during 2011, in respective order; that in Europe and North America dropped from 97 thousands and 57 thousands deaths to 39 thousands and 33 thousands, respectively. It is also intresting to mention that the traffic fatalities in the Arab world sharply increased from 22,145 during 1980 to 37,736 during 2011. It is expected to pass 45 thousands deaths during 2021. The traffic fatalities in the four continents will add up to just 790 thousands considering a flat rate of adjustment factor for underreporting. This however raises serious question regarding underreporting of the official records. Nevertheless, while the roadway deaths in Europe and North America is expected to drop by around 40 and 20%, respectively by the year 2025, according to the models developed here, that in Asia and Africa is expected to increase by around 15 and 70%, respectively. The fatality rates per population followed a very similar pattern, but steeper, of the fatality frequency. There are many contributory factors leading to such high traffic deaths in Asia and Africa. These include, among many other factors, lack of measurable long term safety plans on real ground, inconsistent handling of traffic safety strategies, poor involvement of NGO’s, poor coordination between various stake holders, poor research involvement in the traffic safety crises and limited post-accident rehabilitation centres. Selected

Investigation of fatal crash trends in the Arab world compared with Eu

Over three decades, vehicular and fatality related data are analysed and modelled for the Arab world and compared with 27 EU countries. The data comparison and modelling include vehicle development, death frequencies and death rates per inhabitants and vehicles. The modelling is based on least-squares regression fit considering around two-third of a million gathered data points for 45 considered countries. The gathered Arab countries’ data, as a whole, are thought to be presented for the first time; since no such data are yet observed in the literature. It is expected that an extra 117 million vehicles will be pumped into the global road network in a decade time from the earlier two regions. This sums to around 15% of the current global vehicle population. While such an increase looks very encouraging for the vehicles’ manufacturers, its environmental consequences and power consumption needs are surely not. While crash deaths in EU countries dropped from 74,876 during 1980 to 30,170 during 2011, that in the Arab countries increased from 22,145 victims to 37,736. The death record in the Arab countries is expected to further escalate to 54 thousand by the year 2022 based on mathematical models developed here. This represents around 45% increase since 2011. That for 27 EU countries is expected to be within 10 and 20 thousand deaths, which is less than half of the 2011 record. The crash death rates in the EU countries decreased continuously during the past three decades and will continue doing so during the coming decade. That in the Arab world will also continue dropping gently during the coming decade. Currently, the overall rates for the EU countries is half that of the average Arab countries. The gap between the two will increase with the time if no proper counter action is considered. The rates in the Arab countries is quite misleading because of the clear difference in the vehicle ownership rate and average vehicle-miles travelled between Arab and EU countries. While the deaths rates per population in the 15 EU countries are heading towards zero in a decade time; the rate in the Arab countries are expected to increase by 16%. Many factors contribute to such high rates of traffic deaths in the Arab countries, as lack of measurable long-term safety plans, inconsistent handling of traffic safety strategies, poor research involvement and limited post-accident rehabilitation centres.

Analysis on Comparison of Highway Accident Severity between Weekday and Weekend using Structural Equation Model

교통사고를 감소시키고 안전성을 향상시키기 위해, 사고에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하여 교통사고를 예측하는 모형은 지속적으로 개발되어 왔다. 교통사고 감소와 사고 사망자 감소에 대한 문제는 선진국과 후진국 모두 중요한 문제로서, 우리나라에서는 매해 교통사고 감소를 위한 정책 및 방안을 제시하고 있다. 주 5일제 시행과 여가활동에 대한 관심의 증가로 주중과 주말의 통행패턴은 다른 형태를 지니고 있으며, 교통사고의 특성도 마찬가지로 다르게 나타난다. 본 연구에서는 주중과 주말의 사고 심각도에 미치는 요인이 다름에 대하여 분석하였으며, 이는 고속도로에서 발생한 5년 동안의 사고자료를 구조방정식 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 모형의 추정결과 주중 사고 심각도 모형은 도로 요인이 사고 심각도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 주말 사고 심각도 모형은 운전자 요인이 사고 심각도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 주중과 주말 사고의 원인 차이를 나타냈다. In order to identify and understand the crucial factors to induce traffic accident, causal relationships between diverse factors and traffic accident occurrence have been investigated continuously. It is one of most important issues all over the world to reduce the number of traffic accidents and deaths by them. Korea government is also stepping up their effort to reduce the number of traffic accidents and mitigate the severity of the accidents by establishing various traffic safety strategies. By introducing the five-day work week and increasing concern of leisure activities, the differences of trip characteristics between weekday and weekend is getting greater. According to this, the patterns and crucial factors of traffic accident occurrence in weekend appear differently from those in weekday. This study aims to understand major different factors affecting accident severity between weekday and weekend using 12,042 incident data occurred on freeways of Korea from 2006 to 2011. The model developed in this study estimated relationships among various exogenous factors of traffic accident by each type using SEM(Structural Equation Model). The result provides that road factors are related to the accident severity for weekday model, while environment factors affects on accident severity for weekend.

TRAFFIC SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENT: Conflict or Integration

Our transport system is not on a sustainable path. Achievements in terms of mobility have come at some considerable environmental, economic and social cost. Sustainability is a long-term concept, also demanding attention to its social dimension. For transport, this underscores a need to link considerations of the environment and traffic safety together. An integrated strategy implies systematic translation of a broad field of goals into a set of mutually reinforcing packages of measures. The focus is on improving the manner in which different actors recognise the need for co-operation and their readiness to implement it. The starting point is in improving communication. There are clear benefits in integration, in regard of both the synergy of actions as well as improved optimisation, but integration may also bring problems. This article is based on an international survey of an expert group formed by the OECD to review the issues and opportunities of integrating environmental and traffic safety strategies. The group assessed case studies from 12 countries and the European Union, using a classification scheme focusing on the decision contexts and life stages represented by the cases. The group's full report was published in 1997. In its conclusions, the group presents a pragmatic way ahead, and identifies some basic research needs. There are some important persisting questions: how to influence transport demand, how to increase the role of non-motorised traffic and public transport, how to find packages of measures relevant for entire regions surrounding large urban areas, and how to respond to the process of rapid motorisation in developing countries. There are as yet few measures dealing effectively with these issues, or taking them up with a concern for both safety and environment. While the approaches that have shown some success underline the importance of tailoring policies and strategies to the concrete situation of each country, they also demonstrate the importance of the international exchange of know-how.

A review of the traffic safety situation in Sweden with regard to different strategies and methods of evaluating traffic safety measures

Nilsson, G., 1984. A review of the traffic safety situation in Sweden with regard to different strategies and methods of evaluating traffic safety measures. Journal of Occupational Accidents, 6: 35–47. In industrialized countries road traffic accidents cause the majority of accidental deaths. The experience from accident and casualty investigations and studies of the effect of traffic safety countermeasures can to some extent be of great value in research on occupational accidents. This paper illustrates problems connected with the evaluation of the effects of countermeasures, problems with accident and casualty statistics, examples from investigations and of the evaluation process in order to describe the benefit of investments to increase road traffic safety in relation to traffic safety strategies in Sweden.