Traffic Flow Prediction Model Research Articles

Matrix-based long-term traffic flow prediction

ABSTRACT Accurate long-term traffic prediction is crucial for enhancing traffic efficiency, ensuring urban safety, and fostering sustainable urban development. However, forecasting over extended periods is challenging due to intricate trends, cyclical variations, and interference from outlier data. To address these issues, this study proposes a matrix-based traffic flow prediction model. The model constructs a matrix with periods as rows and similarities as columns, leveraging periodicity and similarity in traffic data. A row-column prediction module links these patterns efficiently, while a fluctuation transformation mitigates the impact of outliers, significantly improving forecast accuracy. Extending the forecast time span to 14 days with hourly intervals, the model was validated using the PeMS dataset provided by the California Department of Transportation. Results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in capturing complex temporal dynamics, providing a robust tool for long-term traffic prediction.

PREFER: A Pre-trained Model Recommendation Framework for Edge Computing Enabled Traffic Flow Prediction

The recent years have witnessed a surge in the development of traffic flow prediction methods, often deployed on cloud platforms to offer predictive services for entire transportation networks. However, the processes of training and executing a model for the entire traffic network are both time-consuming and computationally expensive. As a result, the utilization of edge servers for local sub-network prediction services has gained prominence. Nevertheless, training prediction models for numerous sub-networks within the extensive traffic network remains a time-intensive and computing resource-consuming task. To tackle this challenge, this paper introduces the Pre-trained model REcommendation Framework for traffic sub-nEtwork in tRaffic flow prediction (PREFER). PREFER trains a set of traffic flow prediction models on selected sub-networks, then recommends optimal pre-trained models for edge servers. The recommendation is specifically based on performance prediction, integrating neural collaborative filtering and traffic flow characteristics. Experiments conducted on real datasets reveal that the pre-trained models recommended by PREFER perform close to the actual optimal ones and significantly outperform existing recommendation algorithms.

Traffic Flow Prediction Methods Based on Deep Learning

In recent years, due to the rapid development of deep learning, it has been found that deep learning has shown good experimental results in traffic flow prediction, and is significantly better than traditional traffic flow prediction methods. This paper mainly classifies, sorts out, and summarizes the classic techniques and research status of traffic flow prediction based on deep learning. According to the length of traffic flow data, the traffic flow prediction method based on deep learning is further subdivided into long traffic flow prediction method and short traffic flow prediction method. The representative models of the two traffic flow prediction methods are analyzed and introduced in detail. Each representative model is expanded and extended, and the performance evaluation indicators of the long and short traffic flow prediction models are introduced. Finally, the possible future research directions and corresponding development trends in this field are summarized.

Towards explainable traffic flow prediction with large language models

Traffic forecasting is crucial for intelligent transportation systems. It has experienced significant advancements thanks to the power of deep learning in capturing latent patterns of traffic data. However, recent deep-learning architectures require intricate model designs and lack an intuitive understanding of the mapping from input data to predicted results. Achieving both accuracy and explainability in traffic prediction models remains a challenge due to the complexity of traffic data and the inherent opacity of deep learning models. To tackle these challenges, we propose a traffic flow prediction model based on large language models (LLMs) to generate explainable traffic predictions, named xTP-LLM. By transferring multi-modal traffic data into natural language descriptions, xTP-LLM captures complex time-series patterns and external factors from comprehensive traffic data. The LLM framework is fine-tuned using language-based instructions to align with spatial-temporal traffic flow data. Empirically, xTP-LLM shows competitive accuracy compared with deep learning baselines, while providing an intuitive and reliable explanation for predictions. This study contributes to advancing explainable traffic prediction models and lays a foundation for future exploration of LLM applications in transportation.

Research on Deep Learning Models for Traffic Flow Prediction

The issue of urban traffic congestion is becoming increasingly severe, highlighting the need for accurate traffic flow prediction to facilitate effective traffic management. Traditional prediction methods often struggle to address the complex spatiotemporal dependencies and external factors inherent in traffic data. This paper reviews existing deep learning models applied to traffic flow prediction, categorizing them into spatial and temporal types based on their dependencies. Spatial dependency models include those based on Euclidean space, such as CNN-based models, and non-Euclidean space models that combine Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) with attention mechanism. These models effectively capture spatial variations in traffic flow data. Temporal dependency models, such as Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN), focus on capturing long-term dependencies and time series dynamics. The selection of models depends on specific tasks and data characteristics. The article concludes with a summary and outlook on the entire discussion.

A Cross-City Traffic Flow Prediction Framework Incorporating Holidays and Weather Factors

Although graph neural networks are widely used in urban traffic flow prediction research, they often face challenges related to data scarcity. Cross-city transfer learning presents a promising and cost-effective solution to this problem. This study introduces TransGTR-MCA (Meteorological and Calendrical Aware), an advanced model for cross-city traffic flow prediction based on the TransGTR framework. TransGTR-MCA utilizes a Graph Structure Learning framework that creates adaptive graph structures dynamically, without depending on predefined adjacency matrices. This method enhances the ability to capture complex spatial dependencies, especially in cross-city contexts. A key innovation of the model is its incorporation of external factors like weather and holidays, which allows for a thorough consideration of the unique climatic and cultural traits of different cities. This integration aims to improve the transfer learning process across various urban settings. To assess the model's effectiveness, experiments were carried out using three benchmark datasets for traffic flow prediction: METR-LA, PEMSD7M, and SZ-TAXI. The results demonstrate that the TransGTR-MCA model outperforms others in short-term predictions. Specifically, when transferring knowledge from the U.S. METR-LA dataset to the Chinese SZ-TAXI dataset, the model achieved a notable 2.73% reduction in error for 5-minute predictions, highlighting its potential for cross-cultural urban traffic forecasting.

Multi-view Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Spatiotemporal Convolution

Predicting traffic flow has always been a significant task in intelligent transportation systems. Due to the substantial temporal and spatial dependencies of traffic flow sequences, accurately predicting traffic flow poses a considerable challenge. Many existing works primarily rely on recurrent neural networks, graph neural networks, and Transformer models to establish traffic flow prediction models. To better extract features and enhance efficiency, a traffic flow prediction model based on multi-view spatiotemporal convolution (MVSC) is proposed. This model learns the representation of sequence data at the input encoding layer and incorporates location and time information. In the spatiotemporal feature representation learning layer, considering the diverse periodic patterns in sequences, several representation learning modules are designed, conducting local spatiotemporal feature exploration through one-dimensional convolution and then accomplishing global spatiotemporal feature mining based on causal convolution. To further enhance the model's utilization of spatiotemporal features, a channel attention mechanism is introduced at the prediction layer. The forecasting method employed in the study is direct multistep, and subsequent experiments conducted on two real datasets demonstrate that the MVSC model exhibits a certain degree of superiority in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE for both short-term and long-term predictions compared to existing models. And through the latest experiments and investigations, it has been found that MVSC has improved MAPE performance by about 1.2% compared to recent models such as RTGCN and STRGCN, achieving the intended outcomes.

Edge Computing-driven Smart Transportation: Analysis and Prediction of Urban Traffic Flow

Abstract With the continuous development of artificial intelligence, the research and application of automated connected driving is receiving more and more attention. The combination of mobile edge computing and Telematics provides crucial technical support. In this paper, we propose a rasterization method for mobile edge computing scenario. We establish a grid classification model based on K-means to facilitate targeted and distributed optimization of computing resources. Meanwhile, we dynamically adjust the allocation of computational resources and the location of edge servers in advance deployment by predicting vehicle traffic. The experimental results demonstrate that the K-means-based grid classification model can accurately classify the grids and differentiate the traffic patterns of the grids, such as remote suburban areas, suburban areas, residential living areas, production industrial areas, and commercial center areas. The Backpropagation (BP) neural network-based grid traffic flow prediction model can simulate the overall changes of the grid traffic flow throughout a day to the maximum extent. Finally, we plan optimization scheme in urban mobile edge scenarios based on the results obtained from our analysis and prediction, and through our results, we can make edge computing resources be utilized efficiently.

Federated Learning-Based Traffic Flow Prediction Model in Intelligent Transportation Systems

The existing Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) achieves high success. As an essential component of ITS, Traffic Flow Prediction (TFP) has attracted tremendous attention. It is a critical but challenging task to improve the robust convergence and high accuracy of TFP in real-world scenarios. This study presents an optimized Federated Learning (FL)-based ChebNet model, FedproxChebNet, to realize the highly effective and accurate TFP. By selecting the best penalty constant in the proximal term to optimize the objective function, this model can achieve fast and stable convergence. Using the ChebNet model to aggregate neighbor nodes’ characteristics, more hidden information underlying the spatio-temporal traffic data can be taken into consideration for training the global and local models. All the superiority of the FedproxChebNet model makes it outperform other FL models with the Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Graph Attention Network (GAT) and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN). We designed a series of experiments on various FL-based GNN model comparisons, parameter sensitivity tests, and on verifying the performance of FedproxChebNet with different heterogeneous systems with [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Based on four real-world data sets from the cognitive network, the experimental results demonstrate that the presented FedproxChebNet provides the best convergence and the highest accuracy in TFP, and achieves the best performance in a highly heterogeneous system ([Formula: see text]). Specifically, the accuracy of FedproxChebNet is at least improved by [Formula: see text] on PeMS07 than other FL-based GNN models. This proposed FedproxChebNet model may be preferable for different scenarios in ITS such as route planning, traffic congestion control and reversible lanes.

An Artificial Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction in Two Lane Highway in Khulna Metropolitan City, Bangladesh

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most significant research topics in traffic engineering. It is instrumental in designing a more modern transport network to manage traffic signals and reduce congestion. Short-term traffic flow is a challenge that a third-world country like Bangladesh is all too familiar with. Like the other cities of Bangladesh, Khulna Metropolitan City is gradually becoming more aware of this situation. The Khulna-Jashore National Highway (N-7), which runs through the city and provides a linear shape, serves as the backbone of the Khulna Metropolitan City traffic flow. This study developed an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for the short-term Traffic Flow Prediction on Two-Lane Highway in Khulna Metropolitan City, Bangladesh. Data was collected from March 1, 2021, through June 30, 2021, during 600–900 hours and 1200–1500 hours. Good-quality electronic cameras recorded the vehicles at the full designated length. The regression graphs displayed the network outputs with targets for the training, validation, and test sets. The various speed level parameters for which the fit is reasonable for all data sets, with R values of 0.98426 in each case. The various traffic volume parameters for which the fit is reasonable for all data sets, with R values of 0.96758 in each case. The model's superiority is indicated by its low mean squared error values. This study demonstrated that the neural network has a good prediction effect on specific road traffic flow, which can achieve the goal of short-term prediction and has improved practicability through testing on real traffic data. This study provides an opportunity to provide a suitable alternative for short-term traffic flow forecasting in Khulna Metropolitan City with traffic flow conditions for two-lane undivided highways.

Research on Smart City Road Network Capacity Optimization Configuration Based on Deep Learning Algorithms

At present, the urban traffic system is faced with the problems of congestion and low efficiency, and the traditional methods have certain limitations when dealing with the complex urban road network. This paper aims to explore a new method of capacity Optimization of Road Networks in a Smart City environment and proposes a method based on a Graph Neural network, named “Smart City Road optimization Graph Neural Network” (SCRO-GNN). SCRO-GNN first collects and preprocesses multi-source data, including road network data, traffic flow, accident records, environmental factors, etc. The key node and edge features, including the number of lanes at the intersection, the traffic flow of the section, and the adjacency matrix of the road network are defined to characterize the structure of the road network. Then, the graph neural network model is constructed and trained to predict the traffic flow of different sections and evaluate the road capacity by using the graph structure of the road network. This paper tests the performance of SCRO-GNN on real road networks in multiple cities. The results show that, compared with the traditional traffic flow prediction model, SCRO-GNN can significantly improve the prediction accuracy, especially when dealing with the highly complex urban road network structure. Based on these predictions, the proposed optimization strategy performed well in reducing traffic congestion and improving the efficiency of road use. The research in this paper not only demonstrates the potential of graph neural networks in smart city road network optimization, but also provides a new direction for future traffic system research. The successful implementation of the SCRO-GNN approach is expected to provide more efficient and intelligent solutions for urban traffic management and planning.

Deep spatial-temporal information fusion dynamic graph convolutional network for traffic flow prediction

Abstract Predicting traffic flow is vital for advancing intelligent transportation systems, but achieving precise forecasts remains challenging. To deeply explore the complex and diverse dynamic spatio-temporal correlation of traffic data, this study proposes a multi-information fusion spatio-temporal dynamic graph convolution model for traffic flow prediction. In the model construction, firstly, a dynamic graph generation module is designed to fully capture the complex spatial correlation of the traffic network and model the changing spatio-temporal interaction; secondly, the spatial self-attention mechanism is used to dynamically focus on the spatial relationship between different nodes, and combined with the dynamic graph convolution network to extract the spatial dynamic correlation features of the road network to study deep spatiotemporal information; Finally, existing models rarely consider other traffic information related to traffic flow, and a spatiotemporal information fusion module is designed to enhance the ability of the model to perceive information, thereby improving the performance of traffic flow prediction models. Experiments are conducted on four real traffic datasets using three performance evaluation metrics and 18 baseline models. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy.

MODELS FOR REAL-TIME TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEABILITY AND DECISION-MAKING IN INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

This article explores models in Intelligent Transportation Systems for real-time traffic flow manageability, focusing on decision-making processes. It covers forecasting, planning, implementing, and controlling strategies to manage traffic flow and ease congestion. Traffic flow prediction models, like dynamic route guidance and traffic flow prediction, utilize historical data and real-time inputs for proactive decision-making. Traffic flow planning models, such as dynamic route guidance index and route efficiency factor, aid in route selection and signal timing optimization. In order to streamline the boundless complexity, the authors assume that it is effective to delineate the managerial capacity paradigm of intelligent transportation systems into the two separate scenarios of “stable and known situation” and “unstable and with large uncertainty situation”. The article proposes a hypothesis to improve the decision-making process in traffic flow. The distinction between these two situations is essential for the smooth running of the business and requires a thorough understanding of the traffic flow in real time, making decisions in intelligent transport systems in order to direct the traffic. The article focuses on data-driven decisions for smoother traffic flow.

LGTCN: A Spatial–Temporal Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Local–Global Feature Fusion Temporal Convolutional Network

High-precision traffic flow prediction facilitates intelligent traffic control and refined management decisions. Previous research has built a variety of exquisite models with good prediction results. However, they ignore the reality that traffic flows can propagate backwards on road networks when modeling spatial relationships, as well as associations between distant nodes. In addition, more effective model components for modeling temporal relationships remain to be developed. To address the above challenges, we propose a local–global features fusion temporal convolutional network (LGTCN) for spatio-temporal traffic flow prediction, which incorporates a bidirectional graph convolutional network, probabilistic sparse self-attention, and a multichannel temporal convolutional network. To extract the bidirectional propagation relationship of traffic flow on the road network, we improve the traditional graph convolutional network so that information can be propagated in multiple directions. In addition, in spatial global dimensions, we propose probabilistic sparse self-attention to effectively perceive global data correlations and reduce the computational complexity caused by the finite perspective graph. Furthermore, we develop a multichannel temporal convolutional network. It not only retains the temporal learning capability of temporal convolutional networks, but also corresponds each channel to a node, and it realizes the interaction of node features through output interoperation. Extensive experiments on four open access benchmark traffic flow datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Application of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction based on time-series data

Application of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction based on time-series data

Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on KELM Optimized By Improved Slime Mould Algorithm

Traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in improving transportation efficiency and enhancing Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). However, the temporal, spatial, and nonlinear nature of traffic flow data presents challenges for accurate short-term prediction. We propose a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM) optimized by the improved Slime Mould Algorithm (SMA). KELM is an improved version of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) that incorporates kernel functions for improved generalization and stability. SMA is a meta-heuristic algorithm inspired by the behavior of slime mould in foraging, known for its strong global searching ability. For better performance, three strategies are introduced: the Good Point Set method for optimizing the initial population, the combination of Opposition Based Learning (OBL) and Differential Evolution (DE) to improve the slime mould generation mechanism, and the use of adaptive t distribution mutation to enhance convergence speed. After comparing the performance of these improved SMAs on twelve test functions, the ISMA improved by integrating three strategies as mentioned above is best. Then the ISMA is applied to search for the optimal parameters of KELM model. Finally, the optimized KELM with optimal parameters is applied to predict the short-term traffic flow on given traffic data set. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, KELM optimized by ISMA namely ISMA-KELM, outperforms existing models such as Random Forest (RF), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), KELM optimized by Tuna Swarm Optimization Algorithm (TSO-KELM), and KELM optimized by SMA (SMA-KELM) in terms of traffic flow prediction accuracy. The proposed model ISMA-KELM provides a promising approach for addressing the challenges of traffic flow prediction, offering improved accuracy and efficiency in real-time traffic management systems.

Research and Application of Traffic Flow Prediction in Chengdu City Based on Neural Network Algorithms

As urban traffic systems increase in complexity, accurately predicting traffic flow has become a critical task in traffic management and planning. This paper employs neural network technologies, specifically Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) and Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), to develop a traffic flow prediction model for Chengdu that incorporates spatio-temporal characteristics. Through empirical analysis, the model demonstrates high accuracy and good generalization capability, effectively predicting and analyzing traffic flow at different times and regions. Additionally, this study explores the application of the prediction model in traffic law regulation and policy formulation, providing data support and scientific basis for advancing smarter traffic systems.

A Novel Confined Attention Mechanism Driven Bi-GRU Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

A Novel Confined Attention Mechanism Driven Bi-GRU Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

Secure and Efficient Continuous Learning Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

Secure and Efficient Continuous Learning Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

A Review of Traffic Flow Prediction Models in 5G Using Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract: Wireless technology has advanced significantly since its origin and is now an essential aspect of our daily life. The advancement of wireless communication from the first generation (1G) to the fifth generation (5G) of technology has been revolutionary. An extensive summary of the development of wireless communication from 1G to 5G has been given in this paper. Cellular networks are heading towards becoming more diverse, broadband, integrated, and intelligent networks with the introduction of 5G networks. The goals of 5G wireless technology are to provide more users with more consistent user experiences, ultralow latency, vast network capacity, faster multi-Gbps peak data speeds and increased reliability. While the resources needed for computation and communication are also growing with the maturity of 5G technology .At the same time, cellular traffic has increased dramatically due to the widespread use of smart devices. Cellular traffic prediction is a crucial component of the resource management system for cellular networks but it confronts many difficulties due to strict standards for accuracy and dependability. Among the most important issues is how to enhance the predictive performance of Mobile data traffic. This review describes the need of traffic forecasting in cellular network in 5G technology. A study of different models for network analysis and traffic prediction by different researchers is presented in this paper. The distinctiveness and guidelines of earlier research for traffic prediction in 5G are examined. To determine the distinctive qualities of each method used for traffic prediction in mobile network, a thorough analysis of the most popular techniques using Machine learning for predictive analysis are discussed.