Traditional Event Research Articles

The Ergonomic Observer: A New Flexible Interface Technique for Online Work and Teamwork Analysis

Traditional event recording means to predefine and memorise function keys or abbreviations codes. Those tools doesn't fulfil the Ergonomic Dialogue Design Criteria, especially the self-descriptiveness, individualisation and learnability. Using such devices to analyse and improve Man-Machine systems is paradox. The FIT-System (Flexible Interface Technique) — a new method to record observational data — can improve this (figure 1)

Detection of very small neutrino masses in double-beta decay using laser tagging

We describe an approach to the study of neutrino masses that combines quantum optics techniques with radiation detectors to obtain unprecedented sensitivity. With it the search for Majorana neutrino masses down to ∼10 meV will become accessible. The experimental technique uses the possibility of individually detecting Ba +-ions in the final state of 136Xe double-beta decay via resonant excitation with a set of lasers aimed at a specific location in a large Time Projection Chamber. The specificity of the atomic levels provides tagging and, together with more traditional event recognition parameters, greatly suppresses radioactive backgrounds.

The Process Geography of Law (As Approached through Andalucian Gitano Family Law)

Comparative law and legal anthropology have for long theorized on the basis of a traditional geography which saw states, regions, locales and social fields as having durable boundaries containing stable and homogenous cultures. This idea of place is now undergoing a massive transformation in response to the effects of and theories about globalization. The emerging ‘process geography’ rejects these traditional ideas, arguing that they are not, and indeed have never been aspects of reality, which is better represented by an imagery of processes. However, it is argued here that globalization is not a synonym for homogenization, nor has place suddenly become entirely irrelevant to identity.This problematic is examined in relation to family law in the Gitano communities of Jerez de la Frontera, Andalucia. Research there suggests that locale is a meaningful site of inquiry, but that it is suffused with remote influences. Three localizable, multifaceted struggles may be seen. First, the Holy See and Madrid have struggled for centuries over whether civil family law would trump religious law, that is, whether the secular state would break the Catholic monopoly over family law. Second, there has been a struggle between Andalucia, Madrid and the global tourist population. Madrid has promoted a mass influx of tourists wishing to view the traditional pilgrimage to Rocio, which has been marketed as a typically Spanish, ‘authentic’ traditional event. But the Andalucian population which celebrates Jerez’s Holy Week at the center of the event continues to observe it in unorthodox ways uncontrolled by either the Church or the State. Third, Gitano families struggle with Andalucia, Madrid and the globally shifting tourist population. Andalucia, Madrid and the Gitano population all have an interest in promoting Flamenco, allegedly created by Gitanos, as a tourist attraction. Observation of the rituals of an ‘authentic’ Gitano wedding showed that some aspects had been transformed to accommodate the floating class of tourists, but also that tourists were barred from one stage of the process in a decision which itself was a controversial event in local history.Thus family law, as practised and idealized in this instance, responds to local, national and global imageries. The reshaping of national identity in the light of globalization results locally not so much in harmonization as constantly renewed ways of negotiating the character of the family and of the self in the family according to a vast multiplicity of signifiers from many dispersed locales.

Market Reaction to Directors’ Share Dealings: Some Irish Evidence

This paper examines the market’s reaction to directors dealing in the shares of their company on the Dublin Stock Exchange. The traditional event study methodology is employed to test whether or not directors purchasing (selling) equity conveys a significant positive (negative) signal to the market. We find that there is no market reaction to directors’ equity purchases but a significant response to directors’ equity sales prior to the event. We suggest that these results may be associated with reduced information asymmetry and conjecture that the results reported here may point to the possible existence of an asymmetric market response to positive and negative information signals.

Information and liquidity effects of government approved stock investments

On April 1, 1986, the Singapore government announced that resident investors or Central Provident Fund (CPF) members could use their compulsory savings in the CPF to invest in approved equity stocks, unit trusts, and gold. This policy was implemented on May 1, 1986. However, the list of 70 approved trustee stocks in which CPF members may invest their funds was not released until May 3, 1986. This paper studies the economic impact of the event of releasing the list of 70 approved trustee stocks on the returns of both the approved and the non-approved stocks. Two possible impact are suggested, namely the information effect and the liquidity constraint effect. A multivariate regression model as well as a traditional event study time series model are used to test for the presence of the two effects. We test for both the partial information release on April 1, and also the full information release on May 3. The results show that significant information effect was not present. However, there is evidence that liquidity constraint did exist before May 1, 1986. The paper draws two implications which may be useful to policymakers. Firstly, the releasing of information in stages can effectively reduce informational impact on the stock market. Secondly, the existence of a liquidity constraint implies that compulsory saving schemes may cause investors, the savers, to hold more riskfree assets than they really desire.

Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns

We analyze tests for long‐run abnormal returns and document that two approaches yield well‐specified test statistics in random samples. The first uses a traditional event study framework and buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns calculated using carefully constructed reference portfolios. Inference is based on either a skewness‐adjusted t‐statistic or the empirically generated distribution of long‐run abnormal returns. The second approach is based on calculation of mean monthly abnormal returns using calendar‐time portfolios and a time‐series t‐statistic. Though both approaches perform well in random samples, misspecification in nonrandom samples is pervasive. Thus, analysis of long‐run abnormal returns is treacherous.

A Performance Comparison Between Cross-Sectional Stochastic Dominance and Traditional Event Study Methodologies

In this study, the performance of cross-sectional stochastic dominance (SD), first proposed by Falk and Levy (FL) (1989), is compared with three traditional event study methodologies: the Mean Adjusted model, the Market Adjusted model, and the Market and Risk Adjusted Returns model. The comparison technique we use is a simulations approach similar to that of Brown and Warner (BW) (1980). BW show that the Mean Adjusted and Market Adjusted Returns models perform as well as the more sophisticated Market and Risk Adjusted Returns model. FL, however, provide a very compelling argument against the three traditional event study methodologies. The problem, they note, is not the theoretical need for risk adjustment; it is the definition and measurement of risk. FL assert that the observed abnormal returns (or lack thereof) may be due to omitted variables, a market proxy effect, or other specification errors in implementing the traditional event study methodologies. The present research finds that SD analysis without the bootstrap method for statistical testing is not very useful at any level of abnormal return. However, when the bootstrap method of statistical testing is employed, SD is found to perform as well as, and sometimes better than, the three traditional models in detecting simulated abnormal performance at all test levels. The results are consistent with FL\'s assertion that the improved performance may result from the SD methodology being free from the specification errors inherent in the three traditional event study models.

The 1994–1995 Mexican Currency Crisis and U.S. Bank Stock Returns

We investigate the impact of the 1994–1995 Mexican currency crisis on U.S. bank stock returns. We use a jump-diffusion model rather than a pure diffusion model to describe daily stock returns, because the public release of unexpected information generally is associated with discrete jumps in prices. Traditional event study models pool both announcement effects and trading effects and may lead to inefficient estimators. The jump-diffusion model can separate the impact of informed trading from unanticipated public announcements. Our results indicate that the variance of the jumps is large and increases with bank size and portion of loans to Mexico.

ESTIMATION OF WATER TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES USING THERMO‐HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A continuous simulation approach is proposed for estimating water temperature exceedance probabilities using thermo‐hydrodynamic modeling. The approach uses (1) a deterministic unsteady flow and heat transport model, (2) continuous hydrological and meteorological data for a long historical period, and (3) synthetic records of tributary water temperatures and other model inputs. Representative historical records of streamflow, air temperatures, and other hydrometeorological variables are obtained from nearby gages. Stochastic modeling methods are used to construct synthetic records for other model inputs, including inflow water temperatures. An application of this deterministic‐stochastic approach is presented for a complex waterway in northeastern Illinois with heat discharges from several power plants and wastewater treatment plants. Statistical results from the continuous simulations are compared to results obtained from traditional event simulations. The application illustrates the information that engineers and biologists can obtain for (1) evaluating compliance with water temperature standards, and (2) assessing the effect of water temperatures on aquatic habitat.

Do markets learn from experience? Price reaction to stock dividends in the Turkish market

In this paper we provide an empirical analysis of the announcement and implementation of rights issues and stock dividends in the thinly traded Istanbul Stock Exchange. The efficiency of the Turkish market with respect to this information set is tested at different time horizons characterized by different development levels of the market. Evidence is detected of different price reactions for the different development phases of the market as well as for the board meeting and actual implementation information. As the market matures, neither the board meeting nor the actual implementation of stock dividends-rights offerings cause significant price reactions. Besides the traditional event study methodology, non-parametric tests such as sign and rank tests are also employed but are found to be unsuitable for this particular case.

State antitakeover legislation and firm financial policy

In the wake of numerous hostile corporate takeover attempts in the 1980s, many states enacted antitakeover legislation, often as a direct response to a particular takeover effort in the specific state. A number of empirical studies assess the impact of such statutes on firm value using traditional event methodology. While the event type research may capture the immediate market assessment of the impact of such legislation, the legislation can affect longer term financial policies of the affected firms. Theorists have speculated that firms less exposed to a takeover threat are more likely to pursue a longer term investment strategy, that leverage may substitute for or complement other existing takeover defenses, and that protected firms may require additional external monitoring. The results of this study indicate that protected firms increase both capital expenditures and R&D relative to assets and sales. Further, there are increases in dividends but only small changes in leverage. Firms with antitakeover amendments in place prior to the legislation show lower increases in capital spending and R&D, and modest evidence of a greater tendency to increase debt levels. While these results indicate that the laws influence subsequent firm strategy, that does not necessarily mean that these changes in policy improve firm value. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Impact of Health Care Reform on Capital Acquisition for Hospitals

AbstractIn this paper, the response of the market for hospital stocks to the episode of the Medicare Prospective Payment System (PPS) legislation and its resulting impact on the ability of hospitals to generate capital for expansion and growth are addressed. The response to PPS legislation is evaluated by examining stock returns of publicly traded hospital companies using both traditional event study analysis and intervention analysis. The paper focuses on the effect of PPS over time and uses qualitative data to support the empirical evidence. Before and after its passage, the market reacted negatively to PPS legislation. This result supports qualitative evidence showing that hospitals' capital positions were impaired. When profit margins fell, bond ratings went down, while borrowing costs increased; the rate of hospital bond defaults went up and capital improvements were delayed.

Evaluation of pollution reduction scenarios in a river basin: application of long term water quality simulations

Because of stricter environmental regulations for surface water quality in Flanders, large efforts are made for the construction of sewers and water treatment plants. The present methodology to determine the necessary pollutant load reductions is based on the combination of simple mass balances, the 90-percentile discharge and neglects the self-purification capacity of the surface water. This method is very easy to apply but offers little guarantee that the goals set will be met. A sustainable river basin management requires a methodology to evaluate different options in pollution abatement strategies. Only by this, the available resources can be applied in the most advantageous, sustainable way. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to evaluate water quality based on dynamic modelling. This methodology is illustrated by means of a case study on the river Dender. Continuous and simultaneous measurements uin 3 places along the river were used to calibrate and validate the model. Continuous simulations over a period of four years guarantee that, in contrast with traditional event type simulations, most discharge and hydrometeorologic conditions are taken into account. Attention was given to the occurrence of extreme events. These events will determine the global ecological condition of the river. CDF-curves (Concentrated-Duration-Frequency) make it possible to gain insight in the duration and the frequency of occurrence of events with inadmissible concentrations of dissolved oxygen and ammonia. Besides simulations taking into account the present loads, different pollutant abatement strategies were analysed and compared. The applied methodology offers the possibility to evaluate the impact of different strategies and to locate present and future problems.

A Study of a Traditional Event UTAGAKI in Tsugaru Area

A Study of a Traditional Event UTAGAKI in Tsugaru Area

Evaluation of pollution reduction scenarios in a river basin: Application of long term water quality simulations

Because of stricter environmental regulations for surface water quality in Flanders, large efforts are made for the construction of sewers and water treatment plants. The present methodology to determine the necessary pollutant load reductions is based on the combination of simple mass balances, the 90-percentile discharge and neglects the self-purification capacity of the surface water. This method is very easy to apply but offers little guarantee that the goals set will be met. A sustainable river basin management requires a methodology to evaluate different options in pollution abatement strategies. Only by this, the available resources can be applied in the most advantageous, sustainable way. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to evaluate water quality based on dynamic modelling. This methodology is illustrated by means of a case study on the river Dender. Continuous and simultaneous measurements uin 3 places along the river were used to calibrate and validate the model. Continuous simulations over a period of four years guarantee that, in contrast with traditional event type simulations, most discharge and hydrometeorologic conditions are taken into account. Attention was given to the occurrence of extreme events. These events will determine the global ecological condition of the river. CDF-curves (Concentrated-Duration-Frequency) make it possible to gain insight in the duration and the frequency of occurrence of events with inadmissible concentrations of dissolved oxygen and ammonia. Besides simulations taking into account the present loads, different pollutant abatement strategies were analysed and compared. The applied methodology offers the possibility to evaluate the impact of different strategies and to locate present and future problems.

The Wealth Effects of Domestic vs International Joint Ventures: The Case of Real Estate

This study examines the wealth effect of international versus domestic real estate joint ventures on the U.S. participating firm’s shareholders. This is done using traditional event study methodology for real estate joint venture announcements. The results suggest that domestic real estate joint ventures generally result in a significant increase in the firm’s value, while international real estate joint ventures usually have a much less significant to nonsignificant wealth impact. This may be due to the immovability of real properties in foreign countries and the large amount of initial investment in real estate that increase both political and economic risks for international real estate joint ventures. This study also finds that hotel joint ventures generally have a weaker wealth effect than non-hotel real estate joint ventures.

Conditional heteroskedasticity adjusted market model and an event study

Stock returns series generally exhibit time-varying volatility. Therefore, one can cast doubt on the way abnormal returns are calculated and consequently interpreted in traditional event studies. In this paper we apply a market model which accounts for GARCH effects leading to more efficient estimators. Using a sample of divestitures, we empirically investigate how this adjustment affects the magnitude of the abnormal returns associated with an event.

Appraisals of Negative Events by Preadolescent Children of Divorce

This study investigated the appraisals of the significance of negative events made by 256 preadolescent children of divorce. Appraisals were assessed by a 24-item self-report scale. Confirmatory factor analysis of this scale found support for a 3-dimensional model: negative self-appraisal, negative other-appraisal, and material loss. Differentiation between the dimensions of appraisal increased with age in both cross-sectional and over-time data. Evidence for convergent and discriminant validity of the self-report measure of appraisals was found with scores derived from children's open-ended descriptions of their appraisals. Cross-sectional structural equation models found significant paths between negative appraisal and psychological symptoms, over and above the direct effects of the traditional life event measure of stress. Structural equation modeling of longitudinal (5.5 months) data found a significant path from Time 1 appraisal to Time 2 anxiety for the older children.

The impact of an unexpected political resignation on exchange rates

Based on the theory of economic regulation, political shocks are examined as unexpected events in the light of the efficient markets hypothesis and a political resignation is taken as an example of such an event. The Hon. J. Dawkins MP, resigned as the Federal Treasurer of the Australian government on Friday, 17 December 1993. There have been a number of studies on the effect of economic and political events on stock prices. This study considers the impact of Dawkin's resignation on the foreign exchange rates of the major traded currencies in Australia. The traditional event study methodology, based on the market model, and the lesser-used multivariate methodology of seemingly unrelated regressions are used for the analysis. The sample of currencies is considered both as a portfolio and on an individual basis, with efficiency of the currency markets being tested for anticipatory, event-related and persistence effects. The paper concludes by contrasting the findings of the two methodologies. The study reports significant results using the traditional method for the event period with insignificant results being reported for the other method.

Third colloquium on cellular signal transduction: cell-cycle signalling. German Cancer Research Centre Heidelberg, 14 January 1994.

The annual meeting of the DKFZ research programme Tumor Cell Regulation was originally conceived by its members as an internal forum for mutual information and progress discussion with their cooperating groups. However, because the attractive topics and contributions, these colloquia receive increasing attention also from non-members of the Tumor Cell Regulation programme and, this year, the number of the external participants exceeded even that of the internal members. We therefore anticipate this activity becoming a traditional event of wide interest.