Liquidity Trading Research Articles

Is the Chinese stock market efficient? Evidence from a combined liquidity trading strategy

PurposeThis study examines the stock market efficiency in China to offer trading strategy guidance to investors and efficiency evaluation insight to policymakers.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the stock market efficiency in China with a new combined liquidity trading strategy by blending technical analysis into a liquidity buy-and-hold strategy.FindingsOur results show that the combined strategy generates significant excess returns in the whole sample period, suggesting that the Chinese stock market is not consistent with the weak form efficient hypothesis. In addition, the combined strategy yields more significant risk-adjusted excess returns after the 2004 split-share reform, indicating the stock market efficiency in China does not exhibit a distinct upgrade after the reform. Our further test results reinforce the main conclusions after taking transaction costs, market states, short-selling reform and other issues into consideration.Originality/valueOur study contributes to the literature in two ways: First, we shed light on the mixed documented results about the market efficiency form in China. Second, we contribute to the mixed relation between the 2004 split-share reform and market efficiency in China.

Information acquisition, market professional and discretionary liquidity trading

We analyze an insider trading strategy and market professionals’ information acquisition strategies, and explore their impact on market liquidity and price efficiency in endogenous noise trading. Our findings highlight the negative precision effect on market professionals’ information acquisition. With an increase in market professionals, two opposing effects emerge on market liquidity and price efficiency: the strategic complementarity effect and the precision effect. However, the negative precision effect predominates, which impairs market liquidity and price efficiency. Furthermore, enhancing the ex-ante precision of the risky asset or adjusting liquidity compensation reduces market professionals’ involvement in information acquisition, leading to diminished price efficiency.

Treasury Richness

ABSTRACTWe provide estimates of Treasury convenience premia across the entire term structure of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over more than a quarter of a century and document a variety of key stylized facts about their time‐series and cross‐sectional patterns. These results raise concerns about the evolving nature of Treasury markets and suggest that investors may now place less weight on the traditional role of Treasury securities as liquid trading vehicles. These stylized facts provide empirical benchmarks that could help guide future theoretical and empirical work about the economics of safe assets in financial markets.

The global production pattern of the semiconductor industry: an empirical research based on trade network

Semiconductors are an important electronic component and play a central role in many industrial fields, whose production system is spread all over the world, involving trade in many raw materials, mechanical equipment, and finished products. Comprehending a broad global production picture of the semiconductor industry can be an arduous task. To tackle this complexity, the social network analysis method was used to capture the flows of products between economies in the semiconductor industrial chain. This study analyzed the evolution of the trade pattern of four key commodities in the semiconductor industrial chain, with a focus on identifying the status of major economies in the global semiconductor trade system. Additionally, the influencing factors of the formation of the trade networks were explored by using the Exponential Random Graph Model. The results showed that: (1) From 2001 to 2019, the import and export trade pattern of four key commodities in the semiconductor industrial chain has shown the characteristics of “rising in the east and decreasing in the west”, but the change range shows strong commodity heterogeneity, the change of the spatial pattern of integrated circuits trade is the most significant, and the integrated circuits trade proportion of Asian economies has increased hugely with more than 80%. (2) The trade connectivity of various commodities in the semiconductor industrial chain has increased, upstream support products with high technical requirements such as wafers and equipment have the lowest average degree and weak trade liquidity, and the average degree of trade network of packaging materials and integrated circuits is relatively high, with strong trade liquidity and closer and more prosperous trade connections. (3) From 2001 to 2019, the “core-periphery” system of global semiconductor industry trade has changed significantly, with the core circle undergoing obvious iterative reorganization. for example, China and Singapore have achieved status improvement to the core circle in the base materials trade network, while Malaysia has been squeezed into the semi-peripheral circle. (4) The formation of trade networks of various commodities in the semiconductor industrial chain was driven by three aspects: network self-organization, exogenous endowment attribute, and exogenous network embeddedness. Among them, the influence of the technological innovation level of economies on different commodity trade networks showed heterogeneous.

Who can see the iceberg's peak? How icebergs are used by information and liquidity traders

AbstractIceberg orders are partially disclosed limit orders that only reveal a small portion of their hidden volume at any time. Once traded, the iceberg order automatically replenishes until all its hidden volume executes. Consistent with theory, icebergs appeal to both information and liquidity traders. Information traders place orders at aggressive prices in the limit order book, which transact immediately as marketable orders. Liquidity traders use non‐aggressive orders, which sit on the book as limit orders. Iceberg traders adjust the aggressiveness of their orders as market conditions change. We find the market discovers iceberg orders through repeated replenishments.

Options on temporary water allocation rights and their pricing

AbstractThis paper presents a methodology for defining the spot price of temporary water allocation rights for trading zones within the water market in the southern Murray–Darling Basin situated in Australia. The historical spot price is then used to calibrate a stochastic process depicting the dynamics of the water price, allowing the computation of prices of options on the underlying water price with the aim of producing reference prices to catalyse an options trading market. The most suitable stochastic model representing the water price dynamics is selected through comparing the option prices generated from four different models. Using the selected stochastic model, the most liquid trading zone in the Murray–Darling Basin water market (Zone 7) is used to demonstrate how the methodologies developed in the paper are used to calibrate the log‐mean stochastic model representing the stochastic spot price dynamics and compute prices for call and put options on the underlying water spot prices. Sensitivities of the water options prices to market input data can be calculated from the formulae provided in the paper. The results presented in this work can serve as a reference tool by industry practitioners and the farming community in using options for effective risk management of water resources.

Strategi Pengelolaan Modal Kerja dalam Menjaga Tingkat Likuiditas dan Profitabilitas pada BMT- Al Hidayah Kabupaten Lombok Timur

The background of this research is the determination of working capital in relation between the liquidity trade off and profitability, the capital determination which is not appropriate will have an impact on the liquidity level causing BMT being unproductive, and it also impacts on profitability. This research aimed to determine the working capital management strategy in maintaining liquidity and profitability levels and how the impact of the strategy which has been implemented.This research was descriptive qualitative research using primary and secondary data, with data collection techniques namely observation, interviews and documentation of the financial reports from 2019 to 2021. The analysis used was data reduction, data presentation, drawing conclusions, and financial report analysis used the calculation of liquidity and profitability ratios. The results of the research showed that the working capital management strategy and policy used by BMT AI-Hidayah in maintaining the level of liquidity, namely establishing partnerships with sharia banks and non-banks, setting cash budgets, and allocating the funds to branch offices, while the policy used by BMT in maintaining its profitability level was distribution in the funding form. The impact of the policy implemented by BMT in terms of liquidity, namely having sufficient funds in its operations to pay the obligations. It can be seen in the ratio calculation from 2019 to 2021. NWC, current ratio, cash ratio are in a fairly good category. the impact on the profitability side was that BMT has increased revenue and this can be seen in the ROE calcultion which is in the very good category, while the ROI calcultion is in the fairly good category.

Short-term Trading and Stock Mispricing

This paper examines the influence of short-term trading on stock mispricing. Using a mispricing index proposed by Stambaugh, Yu, Yuan (2012, 2015) as a proxy for stock mispricing, This paper investigates how sensitive quarterly short-term institutional trading is to changes in the level of stock mispricing. This paper’s main finding is that trading by short-term institutions is negatively associated with the change-of-stock mispricing index, especially when stock liquidity is high. This paper supports the theoretical view of Cespa, Vives (2015), in which short-term trading can improve price informativeness when liquidity trading is persistent. Also, this research contributes to a better understanding of the interplay between short-term trading and stock mispricing, offering insights into its role in enhancing price efficiency and market dynamics.

Risk Management Case Analysis of ICBC's "Crude Oil Treasure" Incident

Driven by the marketization of interest rates and technological innovation, commercial banks in China continue to innovate various financial services businesses and devote more attention to attracting customers to purchase various investment and wealth management products in order to expand sources of bank performance and gain more benefits. In 2018, paper crude oil-linked wealth management products emerged. Paper crude oil products are linked to the prices of international crude oil futures contracts. The products feature controllable risks and relatively high returns, which are very popular among large numbers of customers. However, despite the continuous expansion of China's financial derivatives trading volume, the categories of derivative products and regulation still have many limitations. The development of innovative paper crude oil-linked products is not perfect and has many potential risks, which are highly susceptible to market fluctuations. Taking China Bank's "Crude Oil Treasure" product as the research focus, this paper analyzes the massive loss incident that occurred in late April 2020 through case study analysis and qualitative analysis methods. It is divided into four parts. The introduction part explains the research background, significance, content, methods and innovations and inadequacies of this paper. The first part sorts out the background and process of the "Crude Oil Treasure" case at China Bank and elaborates on the operating principles of this product. The second part analyzes the "Crude Oil Treasure" case in detail. It first focuses on the problems in the product's trading liquidity, domestic and international time differences and product promotion. Then it focuses on the internal and external causes of the case, discussing external factors such as international crude oil market turmoil and futures trading characteristics, and internal factors such as product design, risk control and lack of experience. It also evaluates the hedging strategy, contract design and compliance of the "Crude Oil Treasure" product. The third part mainly analyzes the impacts of the "Crude Oil Treasure" rollover incident and China Bank's subsequent response measures. The fourth part puts forward certain countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of bank management, investors and regulatory agencies to prevent such incidents from recurring based on the case analysis.

Asymmetric Disclosure, Noise Trade, and Firm Valuation

ABSTRACTWe study the impact of asymmetric (i.e., conservative or aggressive) disclosure on a firm’s price in the classic setting in which its stock is traded by risk-averse investors and noise or liquidity traders. We show that asymmetric accounting policies alter the relative risk faced by investors when they short versus long, which causes market liquidity to differ for positive versus negative demand shocks. As a result, accounting conservatism raises firms’ valuations and lowers their expected returns. We further demonstrate that the relationship between accounting informativeness and expected returns depends upon the skewness of investors’ prior beliefs. Finally, we find that a firm that can commit to an accounting policy can tailor this policy to benefit from noise trade and foster overvaluation.JEL Classifications: D72; D82; D83; G20; M41.

STUDY OF WEAK FORM OF MARKET EFFICIENCY IN INDIA

A securitys current market price already accounts for all of its prior trading volumes and prices, according to Indias lax form of market efficiency. An investor cannot generate spectacular returns by only relying on the analysis of previous price movements because any relevant information about the security would already be reflected into its present price. The accuracy and promptness with which prices reflect information about the market is known as market efficiency. All the information from prior prices and traded volume is included in the weak version of the markets current prices. Furthermore, future prices cannot be predicted by looking at past prices. Everyone has access to past prices, even though some people can obtain them more easily than others. Liquidity traders may sell their stocks, generating price volatility, without considering the shares fundamental value. The market price reflects the intrinsic value as a result of the buying and selling of information traders. The filter rule, runs test, and serial correlation are used to assess market efficiency. Run tests have been used in this research to identify market efficiency. Information on stock prices for the selected companies was gathered from the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

DETERMINANTS OF COMPANY STOCK SPLIT DECISIONS (STUDY ON GO PUBLIC COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BEI)

This study aims to determine the effect of the high level of stock prices, company financial performance, and stock trading liquidity on stock split decisions in companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. It uses a quantitative approach. The research population includes all companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2014-2016 period. The sample was determined by purposive sampling technique and 40 companies were obtained. The analytical method used in this study is logistic regression analysis.Based on research results, it can be concluded that the level of overpriced stock prices by proxy Price Earning Ratio (PER) has a significant positive effect on the company's stock split decision. The level of expensive stock prices proxied by Price Book Value (PBV) has a significant positive effect on the company's stock split decision. The company's financial performance by proxy Earnings Per Share (EPS) has a significant positive influence on the company's stock split decision. The company's financial performance proxied by Return on Assets (ROA) has a significant negative effect on the company's stock split decision. Stock trading liquidity proxied by Trading Volume Activity (TVA) has a significant negative effect on the company's stock split decision. The Nagelkerke R Square value in this study is 0. 702 which means the ability of the variable level of expensive stock prices, the company's financial performance, and stock trading liquidity explains the company's decision variable to do a stock split of 70.2%. The remaining 29.8% of the dependent variable is explained by other factors outside the model.

Free Float in the Polish Capital Market and Its Importance for Investors

Theoretical background: Free float (hereinafter referred to as FF) refers to the ratio of shares held by small investors (less than 5%) to all shares in a company. FF investors are generally unrelated to each other or to ma-jor shareholders and they constantly review the company’s current stock market valuation and thus improve the stock market efficiency. This means that the higher the FF, the potentially higher liquidity and better valuation of the company’s shares. A low FF recalls the institution of protecting the rights of minority shareholders, calls into question the sense of maintaining a public company status, and raises the potential risk of incorrect valuation. The literature generally lacks studies referring to all these issues as well as FF statistics in Poland. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is to sum up the term “free float”, analyze FF statistics on the Polish capital market, indicate the link between FF and market liquidity, identify potential risks associated with listed companies having low FF and to determine whether it makes sense for the strategic investor to maintain public company status with low FF. Research methods: Theoretical analysis (including analysis of capital market laws) and statistical analysis. Main findings: The research confirmed that the relationship between FF and stock market liquidity is positive, but only considering FF in nominal terms. On the Polish capital market, as the nominal level of FF increases, market capitalization and trading liquidity increase largely and the average market spread decreases slightly. The article also points out important risks associated with low FF conditioning low liquidity, such as the risk of stock manipulation and the risk of incorrect company valuation. Potential areas for changing the law on squeeze-out/sell out institutions due to the inadequacy of the FF percentage were also pointed out.

Dampening effect and market efficiency

The way informed traders use their privileged information affects the properties of asset prices. This paper analyzes the differences in market efficiency between the two most widely adopted informed trading paradigms (Grossman-Stiglitz-style and Kyle-style) in a unified three-period framework. The aggregate risk—the product of fundamental risk, liquidity trading risk, and traders’ risk aversion coefficient—uniquely determines three measures of market efficiencies, including price informativeness, return autocorrelations, and the unconditional expected utilities of uninformed market makers. In the Kyle-style model, a self-reinforcing dampening effect arises from informed traders’ trading on fundamental information and non-fundamental information about their prior positions, leading to less efficient markets, contrarian trading by informed traders, and a return reversal between the two trading periods. Our study proposes to estimate price informativeness using information from short-term return reversals.

Financial instruments in the trade of forest products

The development of exchange trading in Russia is an urgent topic in connection with the modern transformation of the market for timber products under the influence of the pressure of sanctions restrictions on Russian producers, the restriction of supplies to Europe. Another important aspect of the relevance of the topic is related to ensuring transparency and reducing the shadow relations of participants in the market. The purpose of the study is to determine the current situation of stock trading and to identify the pricing patterns of spot and futures quotations for timber products. The paper highlights a number of issues of the current situation of exchange trading of timber products in Russia and world exchanges, highlights the specifics of exchange trading of timber products, and identifies the main factors determining the low liquidity of exchange trading. In 2021, the volume of timber trading on the Russian stock exchange amounted to 1% of the total volume of harvesting, which is the minimum trading volume, and therefore does not allow the formation of a relevant market price index. The paper considers the pricing of spot and futures quotations for timber products. The dynamics of bleached softwood pulp futures on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHFE), pulp and paper futures on the Norwegian Stock Exchange (NOREXECO) are analyzed. Modern measures and measures for the future up to 2025 aimed at activating exchange trading in LPC products, increasing the liquidity of the futures market for timber products are considered. The study shows the advantages of exchange trading, and possible prospects for the development of exchange trading of timber products in Russia.

Stock-Based Compensation and Insider Trading with Liquidity Signal

We study a stock-based executive (CEO) compensation contract for the case where the insider receives a signal about the demand of liquidity traders in the stock market. The singleperiod model of Kyle (1985) is adopted for deriving the stock market equilibrium. Based on the equilibrium stock price, the optimal linear contract for executive compensation is obtained by applying a standard principal-agent model. Surprisingly, it is found that the firm’s liquidation value is not used in the optimal executive compensation contract in both our model and the benchmark model (where there is no signal about liquidity). We also make comparative statics for the equilibrium stock price and the optimal executive compensation contract with respect to exogenous parameters.

Does a liability of foreignness in liquidity apply to US IPOs?

We provide evidence regarding two unanswered and consequential questions regarding share trading liquidity, a primary motive for US listings, for the prominent listing cohort of foreign-firm US initial public offerings (FIPOs). First, we test whether FIPOs exhibit a ‘liability of foreignness (Bell et al. 2012) in liquidity’ (LFL) compared with matched domestic-firm IPOs (DIPOs), despite listing requirements that are more stringent than for the mature cross-listed foreign firms studied previously. Second, we test whether US IPO LFL is moderated by FIPO home country institutional attributes that promote liquidity. Our findings for 327 FIPOs from 36 countries between 1990 and 2012 reveal that US IPO LFL is moderated, but not eliminated, by FIPO home country attributes, thus indicating incomplete bonding with US institutions. These findings extend prior research and serve to inform foreign firms considering US IPOs, exchanges competing for them, listing facilitators, regulators, and investors regarding a salient listing consideration.

Causality between Arbitrage and Liquidity in Platinum Futures

Arbitrage and liquidity are interrelated. Liquidity facilitates arbitrageurs’ trading on deviations from the law of one price. However, whether arbitrage opportunity leads to an increase or decrease in liquidity depends on the cause of the deviation. A demand shock leads to greater liquidity, while asymmetric information is toxic to liquidity. We examine how arbitrage and liquidity influence each other in the world’s largest platinum futures markets on exchanges in New York and Tokyo. The markets provide an interesting institutional setting because the futures are based on an identical underlying commodity but exhibit different liquidity characteristics both intraday and over their lifespans. Using intraday data, we find that deviation in currency-adjusted futures prices leads, on average, to an immediate increase in liquidity, suggesting that demand shocks are the dominant driver of arbitrage opportunities. Less actively traded futures experience a greater liquidity effect. Arbitrageurs improve liquidity in both New York and Tokyo by acting as discretionary liquidity traders and cross-sectional market-makers.

ETFs and information asymmetry of underlying securities: evidence on the volume-conditioned return autocorrelation

ABSTRACT This study investigates whether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increase the information asymmetry of underlying securities by examining the relationship between the US equity ETF ownership or turnover and the volume-conditioned daily return autocorrelation proposed by. Specifically, we find that stocks with higher ETF ownership exhibit weaker return reversals. We confirm that the ETF ownership effect is robust in a variety of settings, such as various volume measures, within industry, and various regression frameworks. We also address the difference between the volume-conditioned autocorrelation and the unconditional autocorrelation. Moreover, we document that higher ETF turnover leads to weaker return reversals, independently of the ETF ownership effect. These findings suggest that higher ETF presence allows more informed traders to engage in trades or more liquidity traders to migrate to ETFs from underlying securities, resulting in higher information asymmetry for underlying securities.

Do Designated Sales Agents in ATM Offerings Exploit Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift? Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper investigates whether designated sales agents hired to work on the At-the-Market (ATM) offerings act as liquidity traders and arbitrage apparent market inefficiencies such as post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). Those sales agents can compete to provide liquidity in the presence of asymmetric information and continuously sell their new equity shares at any time. We find that the supply of liquidity shocks from ATM offerings negatively impacts the cross-section of risk premia. Consistent with the prediction of a dynamic rational expectations model, the well-documented PEAD anomaly disappears in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). When analyzing reversal magnitudes around earnings announcements, we show attenuated return reversals in ATM REITs compared with non-ATM REITs. Furthermore, institutional ownership, institutional herding, and adverse selection cannot explain future returns in firms with good earnings surprises below their expected levels.