Trading Scenarios Research Articles

Accounting for Spatial Variation of Ozone Productivity in NOx Emission Trading

The potential air quality benefits of NO(x) emission-trading programs were compared to the air quality benefits of across-the-board NO(x) reductions for point sources in eastern Texas. The comparison was performed by first determining, using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx), the changes in ozone concentrations associated with NO(x) reductions at more than 50 individual facilities in eastern Texas. These facility-specific changes in ozone concentrations due to NO(x) reductions were then converted into a variety of indices representing ozone reduction benefits. Trading scenarios were then evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that approximately 20% of all trading scenarios result in ozone reduction benefits that deviate by 25% or more from the ozone reduction benefits achieved by across-the-board reductions. This result was independent of the index used to calculate ozone reduction benefit. This variability in the benefits associated with trading scenarios was comparable to the variability in benefits associated with changes in meteorological conditions over the days that were modeled. Additional Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the average benefit associated with NO(x) trading could be improved and that the variability in benefit was reduced by creating a trading program where a small group of high impact facilities are allowed to sell but may not buy NO(x) allowances.

The future of gas infrastructures in Eurasia

The IIASA-WEC study global energy perspectives emphasized trends toward cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient final energy forms, delivered chiefly by energy grids, and noted potential energy infrastructure deficiencies in Eurasia. We compare planned interregional gas pipelines and LNG terminals in Eurasia with the study's projected trade flows for 2020. We focus on the study's three high-growth scenarios and single middle course scenario. The comparison indicates that high gas consumption in a scenario need not imply high gas trade. For the former Soviet Union, a robust strategy across all six scenarios is to implement existing plans and proposals for expanding gas export capacity. For Eastern Europe, significant import capacity expansions beyond current plans and proposals are needed in all but the middle course scenario. Western European plans and proposals need to be increased only in two high gas consumption scenarios. Planned and proposed capacities for the Middle East (exports) and centrally planned Asia (imports) most closely match a high gas trade scenario, but are otherwise excessive. Paradoxically, for the Pacific OECD, more short-term import capacity is needed in scenarios with low gas consumption than in high-consumption scenarios. For Southeast Asia, proposed import capacities are significantly higher than scenario trade projections.

Towards a casual history of a trade scenario in the interior of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, 1900-1999

Towards a casual history of a trade scenario in the interior of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, 1900-1999

Cost‐effective control of nitrogen loadings in Long Island Sound

Long Island Sound is plagued by conditions of severe hypoxia (low levels of dissolved oxygen) during the summer months because of the existence of excessive amounts of nitrogen. A new proposal that would allow sewage treatment plants to buy or sell nitrogen discharge credits is currently being evaluated by the states of Connecticut and New York. Existing theory suggests that a trading program for nitrogen emissions would be a cost‐effective means of addressing the problem. We estimate the costs associated with several trading scenarios and find that the potential for cost savings is substantial and that cost savings rise as the scope of trading expands.

Estimating the size of the potential market for the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms

Estimating the Size of the Potential Market for the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms. — The Kyoto Protocol incorporates three flexibility mechanisms to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three mechanisms over the first commitment period. Based on the national communications from 35 Annex I countries, it first estimates the potential demand in the greenhouse gas offset market. Then, it assesses the implications of the EU proposal for ceilings on the use of flexibility mechanisms. Finally, using the model based on the marginal abatement costs of 12 regions, the paper estimates the contributions of flexibility mechanisms to meet the total emissions reductions required of Annex I countries under the four trading scenarios.

A Multicountry Endogenous Tariff Model with Differentiated Products

ABSTRACT A multicountry model of endogenous tariff-setting for trade in a differentiated product was developed based on a noncoopera-tive game theory model with national welfare functions as payoffs and estimated econometric models for the underlying supply functions, demand functions, and price-linkage relations. The model was employed to calculate Nash tariff rates for the three countries involved in the North American onion trade (Canada, Mexico, and the United States). The Nash equilibrium tariffs are compared to the pre-NAFTA tariff levels and to a free trade scenario which will soon apply under the NAFTA. The results show that for the onion trade Mexico is best off under free trade, while both Canada and the United States are better off imposing import tariffs.

Indo-SAARC Trade Scenario: Emerging Trend and Trade-Off

Indo-SAARC Trade Scenario: Emerging Trend and Trade-Off

Estimating the Size of the Potential Market for the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms

The Kyoto Protocol incorporates emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol over the first commitment period 2008-2012, both on the demand side and on the supply side. Based on the national communications from 35 Annex I countries, the paper first estimates the potential demand in the greenhouse gas offset market. Then, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the implications of the EU proposal for concrete ceilings on the use of flexibility mechanisms for the division of abatement actions at home and abroad. Finally, using the 12-region's marginal abatement cost-based model, the paper estimates the contributions of three flexibility mechanisms to meet the total emissions reductions required of Annex I countries under the four trading scenarios respectively. Our results clearly demonstrate that the fewer the restrictions on trading the gains from trading are greater. The gains are unevenly distributed, however, with Annex I countries that have the highest autarkic marginal abatement costs tending to benefit the most. With respect to developing countries, their net gains are highest when trading in hot air is not allowed, and China and India account for about three-quarters of the total developing countries' exported permits to the Annex I regions. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study to estimate the size of the potential market for Kyoto mechanisms and quantify the implications of the EU proposal on the basis of the individual national communications to the UNFCCC.

Kyoto commitments: macro and micro insights on trading and the Clean Development Mechanism

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we raise some issues related to the expected dimension of the carbon market. This analysis is based on a survey of model results on the implementation of the Kyoto goal with and without reliance on emissions trading. In particular, we consider both the emissions and the financial implications associated with different trading scenarios. Transfers related to international GHG trading might be equivalent to a 400% increase in foreign direct investment to countries with economies in transition. A closer look at the GHG reductions expected from the developing world also suggests that global models may be overly optimistic in their assessment of the contribution of flexibility mechanisms in meeting the Kyoto emission goals. OECD countries may need to rely more on domestic policies to reduce their emissions than what has so far been projected by global models. Second, we use a simple microeconomic model to test the potential contribution of typical power generation technologies in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism. Projects that are defined as additional in terms of the environment but already profitable can bring about significant results at a relatively low price of certified emission reductions. To assume that the contribution of the CDM will come close to what is projected by global models (both for prices and quantities) is to assume that such projects could be credited under the CDM.

Modelling risk, trade, agricultural and environmental policies to assess trade-offs between water quality and welfare in the hog industry

To assess the trade-offs between water quality and welfare in North Carolina and in Quebec under different trade, agricultural and environmental policies in the pork sector, an economic model is linked to an environmental model. The economic model is a spatial mathematical programming model of US and Canadian swine industries. It is a partial equilibrium model, which is dynamic, regional and incorporates a risk variable. The objective function maximizes market welfare defined as the Marshallian measures of producer and consumer surpluses plus government payments. The objective function does not maximize social welfare, which includes the economic benefits derived from water quality, because economic values for improved water quality do not exist for the areas of interest. The objective is to maximize the area under each region's pork demand function, adding government payments and subtracting all production, slaughter, processing, storage and distribution costs. The Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) is the environmental model used in concert with the economic model. Nitrates and phosphates are the environmental indicators. Phosphates being less soluble than nitrates, are lost mainly in runoff and erosion, and hence affect surface water, while nitrates are lost in runoff and leachate contaminating ground and surface waters. The accumulation of phosphates accelerates the eutrophication process while high levels of nitrates in drinking water have been associated with maethemoglobinea, a potentially lethal blood disorder affecting infants under 6 months of age. Since welfare measures are calculated at the regional level, and water quality occurs at the local level, the trends rather than the magnitudes of water quality and welfare changes, are compared to determine if economic and environmental objectives conflict. There are four scenarios: two trade scenarios encompassing important liberalization endeavors and two environmental scenarios simulating potential nutrient management plans. In three cases out of eight, there are trade-offs between welfare and water quality. In the Southeast, including North Carolina, regional welfare decreases due to increased manure disposal costs imposed under both nutrient plans. Welfare decreases are partly compensated by decreases of nitrates and phosphates in runoff. In Quebec, the elimination of the ban on US live hog imports in Canada allows imports of hogs from the Midwest into Quebec, which accompanies a decrease of hog inventories in Quebec. The welfare change is negative and the change in water quality with respect to nitrogen is positive.

On Negotiations and Deal Making in Electronic Markets

Negotiation has traditionally been an important element in all types of commerce. As electronic commerce systems become generally available on the Internet, there is a need to support negotiation in the context of deal making. However, as in the physical world, the type of negotiation mechanism required is context dependent. In particular, we distinguish between the support required in the context of single deal and support required in coordinating negotiations across multiple deals. A framework is presented to describe deal making and negotiation in the context of a single deal. It is used to illustrate four representative Internet-based automated trading scenarios and to help understand the success of the scenario featuring online auctions. While popular, online auctions are limited in that they permit negotiation only along a single dimension such as price. We present ongoing work on multi-attribute negotiation mechanisms, and outline important new concepts relevant to supporting coordination across multiple deals.

Distributed Electronic Trade Scenarios: Representation, Design, Prototyping

:This paper introduces the concept of the electronic trade scenario as a potential solution to “open” electronic commerce-trade among parties that have no prior trading relationship. The basic idea is that trade scenarios would be stored in a publicly accessible electronic library (perhaps a “global repository” maintained by an independent international organization), and downloaded by trading parties as needed for a particular trade. The documentary Petri net (DPN) is presented as a possible representation for such trade scenarios. The InterProcs system is described as a prototyping environment to support the design and execution of such trading systems using the DPN representation. Given the assumption that the parties are trading at “arm’s length,” a key concern will be the development of trustworthy trade scenarios with sufficient controls and evidentiary documentation. Directions for further work to improve the quality and flexibility of trade scenario designs are described.

Trips and pharmaceuticals: implications for India

On the post-Uruguay Round world trade scenario, after the accords in agriculture and textiles and clothing, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) is the issue affecting developing countries like India. One of the seven intellectual properties covered under TRIPs is that of patents. It has been the contentious issue for several reasons. India is committed to amend its patent laws by the year 2005 (for technologies previously unprotected in its market). ...

TRIPS and Pharmaceuticals: Implications for India

On the post-Uruguay Round world trade scenario, after the accords in agriculture and textiles and clothing, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) is the issue affecting developing countries like India. One of the seven intellectual properties covered under TRIPs is that of patents. It has been the contentious issue for several reasons. India is committed to amend its patent laws by the year 2005 (for technologies previously unprotected in its market). ...

Towards Open Electronic Contracting

A design and pilot implementation of a system, called InterProcs, supporting electronic contracting is presented. A key concept in the design of this system is the notion of electronic trade scenarios (or procedures), which are generic may be downloaded by the trading parties for a particular transaction. These scenarios may be fixed in structure, with simple parameter substitution, or they may also be designed to be customizable, within a certain range of flexibility, depending on the type of transaction. The system also includes multi-lingual text generation, in support of international trade transactions.

The Use of Spreads in Forecasting Medium Term U.K Interest Rates

This paper aims to extend recent work on the term structure of interest rates by establishing, in the context of the medium term UK interbank market, forecasting models which make use of market spreads as error correction terms. These models are then used within a trading scenario to test the short run efficiency of the market. The results indicate that this market is inefficient in the short run. Furthermore, the performance of the multi-step-ahead forecasts from the models suggest that this may be a fruitful avenue for further research into longer maturity rates.

96/06610 Environmental patterns from free trade: implications from dynamic NAFTA models of Mexico

Studies of the economic impact on Mexico from joining the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) point to significant dynamic gains from trade. Few studies, however, have effectively related these changes in economic variables to changes in environmental variables. Using sector-share relationships and projections of income growth from dynamic computable general equilibrium models of Mexico, several possible time paths for carbon dioxide emissions are derived. Various scenarios of trade and investment liberalization and increased fuel efficiency under NAFTA result in simulated pollution paths of carbon dioxide that show a reduction in not only the amount of emissions but also in rate of growth of emissions.

A formal description of open distributed processing (ODP) trading based on guidelines for the definition of managed objects (GDMO)

New requirements of growing computer networks and information systems have an influence on extended client/server models with increased functionality. This forms the basis for service management in distributed systems which is realized by a service trading concept. This paper studies the requirements derived from the Open Distributed Processing (ODP) Reference Model in order to consider an open service market. Furthermore, it examines management possibilities for describing the service trading scenario. Because of similar architectures and properties ODP services, service offers, types, exporters and traders are mapped onto management components and modeled as managed objects. Therefore, the Guidelines for the Definition of Managed Objects (GDMO) are used. The final concept allows a precise and unambiguous study of the service trading scenario and provides means for exporting and importing of service offers in a distributed environment.

Competitiveness of broiler producers in north america under alternative free trade scenarios

A spatial equilibrium model was developed to evaluate optimal production and trilateral trade flows of broiler meat under alternative free trade policies in the North American market. The United States has a competitive advantage over Canada and Mexico in producing broiler meat. Canada's import quota and Mexico's import license protect broiler producers in each country from US competition. Eliminating these trade policies under NAFTA could increase US broiler production and increase US broiler meat exports to Canada and Mexico. An appreciation of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso would have a greater impact on trade between the United States and Mexico than on trade between the United States and Canada. ©1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Trade Liberalization, Policy Reform and the U.S. Sugar Industry

This study examines the prospects for and potential impacts of liberalized international trade in sugar. It utilizes a state specific, cost of production based estimate of U.S. sugar supply to examine producer surplus under the current sugar policy regime and under a free trade scenario. It also evaluates the long-term viability of sugar production in individual states at free market prices.