Trading Scenarios Research Articles

Photochemical Modeling of Emissions Trading of Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds in Houston, Texas. 2. Incorporation of Chlorine Emissions

As part of the State Implementation Plan for attaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone, the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality has created a Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds (HRVOC) Emissions Cap and Trade Program for industrial point sources in the Houston/Galveston/Brazoria area. This series of papers examines the potential air quality impacts of this new emission trading program through photochemical modeling of potential trading scenarios; this paper examines the air quality impact of allowing facilities to trade chlorine emission reductions for HRVOC allocations on a reactivity weighted basis. The simulations indicate that trading of anthropogenic chlorine emission reductions for HRVOC allowances at a single facility or between facilities, in general, resulted in improvements in air quality. Decreases in peak 1-h averaged and 8-h averaged ozone concentrations associated with trading chlorine emissions for HRVOC allocations on a Maximum Incremental Reactivity (MIR) basis were up to 0.74 ppb (0.63%) and 0.56 ppb (0.61%), respectively. Air quality metrics based on population exposure decreased by up to 3.3% and 4.1% for 1-h and 8-h averaged concentrations. These changes are small compared to the maximum changes in ozone concentrations due to the VOC emissions from these sources (5-10 ppb for 8-h averages; up to 30 ppb for 1-h averages) and the chlorine emissions from the sources (5-10 ppb for maximum concentrations over wide areas and up to 70 ppb in localized areas). The simulations indicate that the inclusion of chlorine emissions in the trading program is likely to be beneficial to air quality and is unlikely to cause localized increases in ozone concentrations ("hot spots").

A model of B2B e‐commerce, based on connectivity and purpose

PurposeTo present a complete and comprehensive model by which business‐to‐business (B2B) e‐commerce transactions for sales and purchases between organisations may be categorised.Design/methodology/approachLiterature from the e‐commerce and operations management fields was studied, and the findings were synthesised to develop a preliminary conceptual model of B2B interaction. The conceptual model was tested empirically using a qualitative research procedure involving focus groups. From this, its structure and content were validated and refined.FindingsThe research found that the developed model, incorporating nine exclusive e‐commerce trading scenarios, covers all B2B selling and purchase transactions, which suggests that it is comprehensive. It further found that trading occurs in each of the nine scenarios within the model, thus suggesting that it is complete. These findings support the conclusion that the model represents a valid taxonomy for the classification of B2B e‐commerce transactions.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the literature findings are international, the empirical study was restricted to the UK. The model has been validated through this research, and now provides a framework by which the mechanisms of B2B trade may be further investigated.Practical implicationsThe model allows commercial organisations and researchers to recognise and understand the complexity and multiple dimensions of e‐commerce use for B2B sales and purchases. It provides a framework onto which individual trading scenarios may be mapped. The framework offers guidance to operations and supply chain managers in organisations as to the most appropriate approach to adopt in particular e‐commerce implementation projects and supply chain transactions.Originality/valueThis paper furthers knowledge in the areas of e‐commerce and operations management by proposing a new model of B2B interaction. This provides a comprehensive means of classifying all available transaction types, the characteristics of these and the likely technology used within them. It offers the ability, systematically, to identify, map and understand all available B2B e‐commerce trading mechanisms.

Dimensions of Power Trading in India

Power industry is the result of three major segments-generation, transmission and distribution. There takes place an exchange of power between regions having a surplus and regions facing a deficit. When the exchange of power/energy is structured with commercial mechanisms, trading transactions occur. The responsibility for transmission of power within India is allocated to Power Grid or SEBs. Trading of power will help in better utilization of existing generation and transmission capacities as well as help in realistic assessment of investment requirements. Power Trading Corporation acts as a bulk buyer of electricity generated from various projects and then sell the same to multiple takers. The paper discusses issues, challenges, market scenario, competition and risk of power trading in India.

Exploring sustainable production systems for agriculture: Implications for employment and investment under north–south trade scenario

Trade liberalisation leads to increasing exports, especially of primary products, from developing to developed economies. While the growth in export generates additional employment in rural areas, it also brings into its fold rapid exploitation of natural resources, which in the long run may hamper the very potential of growth in the sector. On the other hand, developed economies end up using more of mechnical-chemical inputs in order to minimise use of labour in the primary sector, which is generally, in short supply in these economies. Ideally, trade liberalisation should facilitate movement of farm workers from developing to developed economies as has been experienced historically. The paper argues that restricting the mobility of labour from developing economies is not only trade distorting, but also non-conducive for management of natural resources both in developing as well as developed economies. Since there are socio-cultural and political difficulties, besides environmental considerations, in promoting free movement of labour beyond a limit, it would be appropriate to harp on comensatory flow of investible funds from developed economies. This, in turn, could expidite the process of regeneration of natural resources and thereby ensure sustainable growth, as well as welfare of a large proportion of rural population in developing economies.

Forecasting annual excess stock returns via an adaptive network‐based fuzzy inference system

AbstractIn this study, an adaptive network‐based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a neural network were tested for the ability of these techniques to forecast the annual excess returns of three large publicly traded companies from a time series of said returns. The predictive ability of these techniques was compared with that of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. The Fair–Shiller test was used in the comparisons in order to obtain results that were not subjective and so that conclusions could be made regarding the information used by the techniques in the generation of their forecasts. Since predictive ability does not translate to profitability, a simple trading strategy was used to determine the ability to generate profits from trading upon the forecasts of the respective techniques.As hypothesized, the ANFIS and neural network techniques are able to generate forecasts with significant predictive ability. However, neither technique dominates the other or the ARMA model. In tests of the ability of the techniques to generate profits from their forecasts, a simple trading strategy was used (trading on the predicted sign of the return). The ANFIS and the neural network generated profits in all of the trading scenarios. However, neither technique dominated the other, nor did they consistently outperform the traditional and naive models (strategies). The mixed results in the predictive ability tests and the profitability tests indicate that the conclusions from the study differ based upon the context in which the forecasts are used. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is There a Trade-Off Between Trade Liberalization and Environmental Quality? A CGE Assessment on Thailand

This article explores the question of whether there is a trade-off between trade liberalization and environmental quality. Using a computable general equilibrium framework, the author examines the economic, environmental, and welfare impacts of alternative policy scenarios, including a tariff reduction scenario, a carbon tax scenario, and a combined trade and environmental reform scenario. The results of the analysis, in the case of Thailand, show that if the country were to pursue greater trade liberalization alone without a concomitant increase in pollution abatement, there is a modest but real risk that it will become more specialized in dirty activity. If the country pursued pollution abatement without further trade liberalization, the cost in terms of growth does not appear to be significant. When environmental and trade policies are jointly considered, greater substitution away from the polluting energy inputs is observed with the cost on economic growth remaining insignificant.

An Analysis of Alternative Emission Trading Strategies of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

Summary This article analyzes the cost of Canada, Japan, and Western Europe of complying with the Kyoto Protocol and the possible revenues of Eastern Europe, Russia, and Ukraine in a set of scenarios, each of which reflecting one particular pattern of permit trading. One main focus was to investigate how a working Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) scheme may influence the market power of a possible cartel of “hot air” sellers. The results show that the compliance costs are significantly reduced with the availability of CDM and that these cost depend only weakly on the restrictions of the “hot air” supply. The greenhouse gas emission reductions of the trading scenarios are about 40% less than in a domestic measures only scenario. The analysis uses a modified version of the well-known MERGE model (Manne and Richels, 2004). Zusammenfassung Dieser Artikel analysiert die Kosten, die Japan, Kanada und Westeuropa infolge der Erfullung ihrer Verpflichtungen gemas dem Kyoto-Protokoll entstehen, sowie den moglichen...

Peer-to-peer data preservation through storage auctions

Digital archives protect important data collections from failures by making multiple copies at other archives, so that there are always several good copies of a collection. In a cooperative replication network, sites "trade" space, so that each site contributes storage resources to the system and uses storage resources at other sites. Here, we examine bid trading: a mechanism where sites conduct auctions to determine who to trade with. A local site wishing to make a copy of a collection announces how much remote space is needed, and accepts bids for how much of its own space the local site must "pay" to acquire that remote space. We define a spectrum of trading scenarios, ranging from a network of archives and digital libraries that trust each other, to a scenario where sites do as they please, including breaking the rules. Then, we focus on developing techniques for the scenarios where sites trust each other, although we discuss issues that may arise if sites are greedy or malicious. We examine the best policies for determining when to call auctions and how much to bid, as well as the effects of "maverick" sites that behave differently than other sites. Simulations of auction and trading sessions indicate that bid trading can allow sites to achieve higher reliability than the alternative: a system where sites trade equal amounts of space without bidding.

The Payoff from Generic Advertising by the Australian Pig Industry in the Presence of Trade

The Australian pig meat industry today competes in a global market environment, with significant quantities of both pork exports and pork imports for further processing. In March 2003 Australian Pork Limited (APL) launched a advertising campaign to raise domestic per capita consumption of pork, and increase consumer awareness and preference for identified Australian pig meat. This is funded from producer levies. Over the period 2003 to 2005, APL advertising expenditure is forecast to be at least 15 per cent above 2001-02 domestic advertising expenditure levels. Domestic advertising expenditure by APL for the 2002-03 financial year was actually 30 per cent above the previous year’s level. The question is whether these pig producer funds are being well spent. Evaluation of pig meat advertising expenditure has been undertaken in the past, but not in the context of a trading industry. An equilibrium displacement model of the Australian pig meat industry accounting for imports and exports was specified to study the returns to producers from different advertising scenarios. Total returns in terms of producer surplus gains were estimated for each scenario. The results indicated that producers receive the largest returns from domestic bacon/ham advertising and the least from export pork advertising. Producer surplus changes associated with a 30 per cent increase in domestic pork advertising expenditure were calculated for three different trade scenarios, including a hypothetical no-trade scenario. Returns to producers were shown to be very sensitive to the value chosen for the elasticity of demand response to advertising, but were unlikely to be positive based on past estimates of the relevant parameter values. Returns to producers were also dependent on assumptions made about the trade status of the industry and the way in which the advertising was funded.

The open agent society as a platform for the user-friendly information society

A thematic priority of the European Union’s Framework V research and development programme was the creation of a user-friendly information society which met the needs of citizens and enterprises. In practice, though, for example in the case of on-line digital music, the needs of citizens and enterprises may be in conflict. This paper proposes to leverage the appearance of ‘intelligence’ in the platform layer of a layered communications architecture to avoid such conflicts in similar applications in the future. The key idea is that if the intelligence is encapsulated in an agent, then the agents should be organized as a society, and then the rules of the society can be used to ensure ‘responsible’ behaviour. We discuss how an agent society can be used to regulate behaviour in future information trading scenarios, and conclude that this approach offers a ‘third way’ which can satisfy the (reasonable) needs of both citizens and enterprises in the user-friendly information society.

Technological prospects and CO 2 emission trading analyses in the iron and steel industry: A global model

This article presents the Iron and Steel Industry Model (ISIM). This is a world simulation model able to analyze the evolution of the industry from 1997 to 2030, focusing on steel production, demand, trade, energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, technology dynamics, and retrofitting options. In the context of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, the potential impacts of a CO 2 emission market (e.g. the gains in terms of compliance costs, the country trading position, the evolution of the technology and the energy mixes) are also addressed. In particular, three emission trading scenarios are considered: an EU15 market, an enlarged EU market, and an Annex B market.

Multilateral trade and investment liberalization: effects on welfare and GDP per capita convergence

In a three factor and three country knowledge-capital model of trade and multinational activity, we look at the consequences of different trade and investment liberalization scenarios on the countries' welfare and convergence in GDP per capita.

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures. This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO 2 mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka.

India's Trade Openness

The dramatic trade policy shifts of early 1990s have brought in considerable changes in India's foreign trade scenario. The paper is an attempt to analyse India's policy shifts and to examine changes in trade performances following the major reforms in 1991. It tries to have a picture of India's trade status and trade growth in 1990s as compared to the pre-openness period, and also relative to some selected developing economies. The analyses revealed that India became more open in 1990s, and its volume off oreign trade registered considerable growth in the post-openness period. However, India has been maintaining higher trade barriers compared to almost all economies of the comparison group, and its share in the global trade remained negligible. The empirical analyses also show that there has been positive and strong association between India's foreign trade and economic growth over the period under study, however, there is no indication that openness has been contributing in improving the productivity of domestic capital in India.

The economic effects of an alternative EU emissions policy

This paper expands our earlier analysis to examine the implications of the median value for the 2010 European Union (EU) baseline emissions derived from the four economic modelling studies for both Annex 1 countries and non-Annex 1 countries as well as for the market price of permits. Our results suggest that, in terms of the reductions in the total abatement costs relative to the no trading case, the EU under the two trading scenarios examined gains as much as Japan and the US in the case of the high EU emissions baseline in contrast with our earlier examined, low official EU emissions baseline case where the US and Japan benefit much more from trading than the EU does. Moreover, the sharp increase in emissions reductions required of the EU drives up the total Annex 1 countries’ demand for permits and hence the market price of permits, thus the gains of the Former Soviet Union as exporters of permits and of developing countries as suppliers of the clean development mechanism (CDM) credits increase substantially in the case of the high EU emissions baseline in comparison with the case of the low official EU emissions baseline case.

Stability of money: phase transitions in an Ising economy

The stability of money value is an important requisite for a functioning economy, yet it critically depends on the actions of participants in the market themselves. Here we model the value of money as a dynamical variable that results from trading between agents. The basic trading scenario can be recast into an Ising-type spin model and is studied on the hierarchical network structure of a Cayley tree. We solve this model analytically and observe a phase transition between a one-state phase, always allowing for a stable money value, and a two-state phase, where an unstable (inflationary) phase occurs. The onset of inflation is discontinuous and follows a first-order phase transition. The stable phase provides a parameter region where money value is robust and can be stabilized without fine tuning.

Influence of population density and temporal variations in emissions on the air duality benefits of NOx emission trading.

Ozone formation is a complex function of local hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions. Therefore, trading of NOx emissions among geographically distributed facilities can lead to more or less ozone formation than across-the-board reductions. Monte Carlo simulations of trading scenarios involving 51 large NOx point sources in eastern Texas were used in a previous study by the authors to assess the effects of trading on air quality benefits, as measured by changes in ozone concentrations. The results indicated that 12% of trading scenarios would lead to greater than a 25% variation from conventional across-the-board reductions when air quality benefits are based only on changes in ozone concentration. The current study found that when benefits are based on a metric related to population exposure to ozone, two-thirds of the trading scenarios lead to changes in air quality benefits of approximately 25%. Variability in air quality benefits is not as strongly dependent on the temporal distribution of NOx emissions.

Automated generation of electronic procedures: procedure constraint grammars

Electronic trade procedures or ‘scenarios’ are ready made, generic and reusable transaction models for trade communities such as seaports, banking, logistics, etc. They are made available to parties for downloading from repositories provided by international, regional, or industry organizations. However, current workflow-like representations of trade scenarios do not provide for situation-specific customization of the transaction model. Instead of designing specific trade procedures for each possible variation of a transaction, we develop a generative grammar formalism that defines entire families of related trade procedures. Since trade procedures are influenced by various situation-specific factors from multiple sources, we have been led to modify the usual grammar formalism to take into account a variety of constraints. The formalism is, therefore, called a procedure constraint grammar (PCG). The resulting functionality allows for a far greater level of flexibility for customized electronic trade procedures than current approaches provide. Numerous examples are provided.

Basmati rice: a review

India contributes about one‐third of the world acreage under rice. Rice is available in over 5000 varieties, of which Basmati rice occupies a prime position on account of its extra long superfine slender grains, pleasant, exquisite aroma, fine cooking quality, sweet taste, soft texture, length‐wise elongation with least breadth‐wise swelling on cooking and tenderness of cooked rice. This article reviews the quality and aroma traits of Basmati rice, particularly the varieties grown in different parts of India and Pakistan, the agronomy, breeding and physiology of the grain, the trade scenario, Agmark grade designation for export and the US patent of new hybrid strains of Basmati.

A Ricardo-Sraffa Paradigm Comparing Gains from Trade in Inputs and Finished Goods

Here is how the 1817 Ricardo comparative advantage trade benefit analysis has to be modified to take account of post-1960 Sraffian benefits from capital-using technologies. By bringing J. S. Mill's demand model up to date in terms of its implicit geometric-mean money-metric utility, specific measurements for real net national product are calculated to partition sources of welfare gains (from output enhancements and taste-preference accommodations) in scenarios of (1) trade between equals, (2) trade between poor and rich nations, and (3) for biased inventions that enable a poor country to take over production of items in which formerly the rich place enjoyed comparative advantage. History of economic doctrine is mined to advance today's frontier of scientific knowledge—a forward-looking function for “Whig history.”