Trade Negotiations Research Articles

The impacts of Timor-Leste’s membership in the WTO:

The paper presents information about the significant impacts of Timor-Leste's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) on institutional reforms, trade policy challenges, and the prospects for ASEAN membership. The paper explores the comprehensive institutional reforms required by WTO membership, emphasizing the harmonization of over 300 economic legislations with WTO standards. The paper also acknowledges that Timor-Leste encounters challenges, including opportunities for strengthening the capacity of human resource and further development of a comprehensive trade policy framework. Additionally, trade negotiations with ten WTO member states on market access for goods and services, including the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), were carefully considered as part of Timor-Leste's WTO commitments, with the expectation of smooth implementation upon the country's membership of the WTO. The study also discusses the use of tariff protectionism as a strategy to safeguard sensitive domestic industries in Timor-Leste, while remaining in compliance with WTO rules in the future.

Article: Waking the Sleeping Lion: The China-Ecuador FTA and Its Implications

This paper examines the Ecuador-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and its broader implications for Ecuador’s economy. It discusses the context in which Ecuador pursued the FTA, highlighting the competitive pressures from neighbouring countries like Peru and Colombia, which had already secured similar agreements. The analysis includes a comparison between the Ecuador-China and Peru China FTAs, focusing on key aspects such as tariff classification, rules of origin, and customs regulations. The paper also explores the potential economic benefits for Ecuador, including market access for its export products and the expected impacts on sensitive sectors. However, it raises concerns regarding the flexibility and potential risks associated with the agreement, such as undervaluation of Chinese goods and the challenges of maintaining competitiveness within the Andean Community (CAN). The paper concludes by questioning whether the FTA will deliver the anticipated economic growth and whether it sets a precedent for future trade negotiations within the region.

Trade as a commerical determinant of health: The health impact of a free trade agreement on Wales

Abstract As a result of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (‘Brexit’), the UK can negotiate its own trade agreements for the first time in over 40 years. This includes the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP). Public Health Wales undertook a mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to assess the potential impact of the CPTPP on health, well-being and inequalities in Wales. It is only the second ever HIA carried out on a free trade agreement (FTA) globally. A literature review on the potential impact of the CPTPP on health was conducted. Qualitative interviews with cross-sectoral representation, such as the environment, were undertaken alongside the development of a community health and demographic profile. The HIA identified significant potential impacts across health determinants, e.g., employment, agricultural production and health care, as well as impacts on population groups, e.g., those on low incomes. The Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, economic uncertainty and loss of regulatory alignment were identified as potential pathways for health impacts to affect the population. The HIA highlighted trade as a key commercial determinant of health. The findings have been beneficial in informing policy and decision-makers to prepare for the implementation of the CPTPP and take action to maximise opportunities and prevent potential negative impacts. Communicating HIA evidence that links trade to health has also led to valuable cross-sector and cross-UK engagement and sparked a “rethinking” of trade through a well-being economy lens where health, well-being and sustainability are primary objectives. This work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach to FTAs by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others as well providing an entry point for public health to have direct engagement with trade negotiators and those participating in trade discussions. Key messages • Trade agreements are a key commercial determinant of health across health behaviour, policy and economy. • Multiple population groups are affected by trade agreements both positively and negatively.

한국의 대외 수출에 미치는 TBT와 미통보 기술 규제의 영향분석: 중력모형과 PPML 방법론을 통한 접근

This study investigates the impact of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and unnotified technologies on South Korea’s foreign exports, analyzing the background and objectives. With the expansion of regional economic blocks such as FTAs, the EU, and NAFTA, the scope of non-tariff barriers, including TBT and Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, has broadened. These non-tariff barriers, often implemented for safety purposes like environmental protection, can increase shipping and compliance costs, imposing a burden on domestic industries. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the effects of TBT and unnotified technologies on South Korea's exports across various industries from 1995 to 2022. To achieve this, we employ the gravity model, one of the most widely used models in explaining trade conflicts, alongside the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which is suitable for handling the complexities of trade data with zero trade flows. This approach enables a detailed analysis of the impact of TBT and unnotified technologies on export performance, disaggregated by objective and industry. The results reveal that while TBT has a positive effect in promoting exports, unnotified technologies have a negative impact. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between the two in international trade negotiations.

Trade Policy Review of Turkey

AbstractThis paper examines the WTO's 2023 Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Turkey, covering 2016–2022. As Turkey marked its centenary in 2023, the TPR allows for critical reflections on Turkey's global and European economic integration and its evolving economic policies. The review period witnessed key developments: heightened tensions with the European Union (EU), the country's transition into a presidential system, and the impacts of COVID‐19 and the Ukraine war. Turkey continued its state‐led development and proactive industrial policy post‐Global Financial Crisis, aiming to reduce the current account deficit, diversify exports, advance technological sophistication and enhance its position in global value chains (GVCs). Recently Turkey has further aligned its import–export regimes and trade negotiations with these strategic goals, increasing its Most Favoured Nation tariffs and adopting localisation strategies to support key sectors. Turkey navigated the pandemic effectively, bolstering its role in global supply chains, as indicated by its increased trade‐to‐GDP ratio. This underscores its economic resilience and strategic location. However, Turkey's trade policies are increasingly diverging from those of the EU, its main trade and supply chain partner and Customs Union ally. Turkey's new Regional Trade Agreements aim for deeper sectoral integration with partners other than the EU.

Business etiquette: The heritage of Chinese culture in trade negotiations

Business etiquette: The heritage of Chinese culture in trade negotiations

A Study of Factors Influencing China's Agricultural Exports to Japan

As a key focus of trade negotiations between China and Japan, trade in agricultural products has received special attention to the tariffs and preferential conditions involved. According to data provided by China Customs, China's agricultural exports to Japan fell after peaking in 2012 and fell further to 9.64 billion yuan in 2020. This paper selects the 2000-2021 china export agricultural products trade data from the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce to Analyze the trade status of Japan, and finds that the scale of trade shows an expanding trend, and there are fluctuations in some years. Establish a business gravity model, study the effectiveness and potential of developing China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and analyze various factors affecting the effectiveness of agricultural export trade, and the results show that there is room for progress in China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and the scale of trade can be further expanded. Finally, it proposes to further improve the export efficiency of agricultural products, stabilize the exchange rate, improve import and export policy control and further broaden the foreign trade market, optimize the trade structure and promote the quality of agricultural products.

Why Foot-and-Mouth Disease-Free with Vaccination Should Be Equivalent to Foot-and-Mouth Disease-Free without Vaccination.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is still one of the most relevant animal diseases and remains of global concern. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) has specified two sanitary statuses that assure freedom from FMD: a country or zone can be free from FMD either with or without vaccination. To obtain either of the two statuses, absence of virus circulation must be shown. The standards set by WOAH are used for trade negotiations. During recent decades, different tools and approaches were developed to control FMD, including vaccines, diagnostics, and the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD. These tools improved over time, and nowadays high-quality, reliable vaccines and specific diagnostics are available to efficiently control and detect the infection, even in vaccinated populations. Due to these improvements, it is no longer justifiable to treat the two FMD-free statuses differently. The distinction between the statuses provides wrong incentives and tempts countries to take increased risks by stopping vaccination to improve their trade conditions, which can have potentially devastating consequences. The decision to stop vaccination should only be made on the basis of a careful and comprehensive analysis of the local and regional epidemiological situation. This paper presents the perspective that member countries and WOAH should recognize the two FMD-free statuses as equivalent.

Optimizing Trade Strategies: The Interactive Trade Decision Making Using Weighted Sum Method

The interactive nature of trade decision making enables us to navigate the complexities of international commerce with agility and precision. Through the power of technology and data-driven analysis, we can optimize our strategies, adapt to market conditions, and seize opportunities in real-time. Interactive trade decision making involves a dynamic process that integrates various factors such as market trends, economic indicators, risk assessment, and competitive analysis. It empowers traders to actively engage with the market, gather crucial information, and respond swiftly to changing circumstances. By harnessing advanced tools and algorithms, we can analyse vast amounts of data, uncover patterns, and make informed decisions that maximize profitability and minimize risks. This interactive approach transcends traditional models, allowing us to actively participate in trade negotiations, explore different scenarios, and assess the potential outcomes of our decisions. It encourages collaboration and knowledge sharing, enabling us to leverage collective intelligence and gain valuable insights from experts and peers. With real-time market data and interactive platforms at our fingertips, we can simulate, test, and refine our strategies, ensuring that our trade decisions are based on accurate information and thoughtful analysis.The significance of interactive trade decision making in research lies in its ability to revolutionize the way businesses and individuals approach international trade. We will use the Weighted Sum Method (WSM) in this study, which is a research approach that gives weights to various factors and combines them to make conclusions based on their relative relevance in a weighted way. Alternative parameters taken as Policy, Environment, Economy, Ability. Evaluation parameters parameters taken as Local investment, Technology transfer, Local procurement, Cooperate with R&D, Training, International marketing assistance”. show the final rank of this paper the Economy is in 2nd rank, the Environment is in 4th rank, the Ability is in 3rd rank, the Policy is in 1st rank, The final result is done by using the WSM method. In conclusion, interactive trade decision making is a powerful approach that leverages technology, real-time market information, and data analysis to enable informed and agile decision making in international trade.

Optimizing Trade Strategies: The Interactive Trade Decision Making Using Weighted Sum Method

The interactive nature of trade decision making enables us to navigate the complexities of international commerce with agility and precision. Through the power of technology and data-driven analysis, we can optimize our strategies, adapt to market conditions, and seize opportunities in real-time. Interactive trade decision making involves a dynamic process that integrates various factors such as market trends, economic indicators, risk assessment, and competitive analysis. It empowers traders to actively engage with the market, gather crucial information, and respond swiftly to changing circumstances. By harnessing advanced tools and algorithms, we can analyse vast amounts of data, uncover patterns, and make informed decisions that maximize profitability and minimize risks. This interactive approach transcends traditional models, allowing us to actively participate in trade negotiations, explore different scenarios, and assess the potential outcomes of our decisions. It encourages collaboration and knowledge sharing, enabling us to leverage collective intelligence and gain valuable insights from experts and peers. With real-time market data and interactive platforms at our fingertips, we can simulate, test, and refine our strategies, ensuring that our trade decisions are based on accurate information and thoughtful analysis.The significance of interactive trade decision making in research lies in its ability to revolutionize the way businesses and individuals approach international trade. We will use the Weighted Sum Method (WSM) in this study, which is a research approach that gives weights to various factors and combines them to make conclusions based on their relative relevance in a weighted way. Alternative parameters taken as Policy, Environment, Economy, Ability. Evaluation parameters parameters taken as Local investment, Technology transfer, Local procurement, Cooperate with R&D, Training, International marketing assistance”. show the final rank of this paper the Economy is in 2nd rank, the Environment is in 4th rank, the Ability is in 3rd rank, the Policy is in 1st rank, The final result is done by using the WSM method. In conclusion, interactive trade decision making is a powerful approach that leverages technology, real-time market information, and data analysis to enable informed and agile decision making in international trade.

Developing Countries and Joint Statement Initiatives at the WTO: Damned if You Join, Damned if You Don't?

ABSTRACTLimited progress in World Trade Organization (WTO) multilateral trade negotiations has led to calls to expand plurilateral processes through which groups of member states can negotiate new agreements. These calls have manifested in Joint Statement Initiatives (JSIs), covering issues such as investments and e‐commerce. To their proponents, JSIs offer a path to update rules and move towards flexible multilateralism. However, critics argue that JSIs marginalize developing countries and reinforce the dominance of advanced economies. Notwithstanding this criticism, a growing number of developing countries are joining these initiatives. Through data collected from in‐depth interviews with officials from 60 WTO member states, this article examines the drivers for growing JSI membership among developing countries. It illustrates that many are joining JSIs to avoid being excluded from agreements that might become binding in the future. While such membership is driven by fear of exclusion and the preference to ‘be in the room’, the negotiation processes of the JSIs often mean that developing countries have little actual influence over the negotiation outcomes. The article concludes that JSIs represent a significant change in the organization of multilateral trade negotiations and enable larger economies to restore their ‘go‐it‐alone power’ in multilateral trade governance.

Analysis and Reflection on the Strategy Benchmarking of Power Battery Management in China and Europe

In 2023, the European Union (EU) enacted the Regulation on Batteries and Waste Batteries (hereinafter referred to as the New Law on Batteries), which strengthens the regulatory framework for the entire lifecycle of power batteries. This development presents both challenges and opportunities for global power battery manufacturers and operators. As a significant player in the global power battery industry chain and the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles and power batteries, China must systematically assess the impact of global battery management strategies, including the EU’s New Law on Batteries, from a lifecycle perspective. This understanding is crucial for maintaining China’s competitive edge in the global power battery market and achieving mutually beneficial outcomes in international trade negotiations. This paper constructs a strategy analysis framework based on the lifecycle approach. By summarizing the power battery management strategies of both the EU and China, it provides a comprehensive overview of strategies across different countries, highlights the key regulatory focus areas, and offers relevant strategy recommendations. The main conclusions and insights are as follows: (1) The New Law on Batteries achieves lifecycle regulation from “cradle” to “grave” and back to “cradle”. (2) China emphasizes the management of waste power batteries, with an increasingly robust strategy system at the recycling stage, yet lacks comprehensive measures for other lifecycle stages. (3) The EU has established a comprehensive lifecycle strategy management system centered on the New Law on Batteries, characterized by strong coordination and a synergistic combination of strategies across different sectors. Finally, this paper identifies three major compliance challenges posed by the New Law on Batteries, necessitating enhanced strategy development and implementation in the areas of carbon footprint management, circular economy, and digital battery passports.

Explaining the politicization of EU trade agreement negotiations over the past 30 years

AbstractAlthough the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the USA and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with Canada have elicited considerable domestic contestation in Europe, several other agreements have been negotiated into public and media indifference. What explains this difference? In this article, I put forward a number of arguments on the structural causes of the politicization of European Union (EU) trade policy over the past 30 years and test them against a newly collected dataset covering 19 preferential trade agreements. The qualitative comparative analysis suggests that the politicization of EU trade negotiations is determined by the co-occurrence of several, well-defined conditions. More specifically, it tells us that: (1) the Lisbon Treaty's reform of EU trade policymaking is the main driver of politicization, (2) the level of public support for the EU is of particular relevance when it comes to ‘deep and comprehensive’ agreements that touch on sensitive domestic issues, and that (3) high adjustment costs expected from trade liberalization can lead to the politicization of trade negotiations.

Syrian Immigrants in the Malta Bazaar of Istanbul: Changing Rules of the Trade Game and Negotiation between the Capitals

ABSTRACT This article examines the socio-spatial transformations of the Malta Bazaar in Istanbul and the new Syrian shopkeepers as potential game changers. We argue that the transformation of the bazaar cannot be seen solely as a commercial venture, but can also be read as a dynamic playground of understanding and tolerance, as well as emerging social, cultural and economic contrasts and tensions. To test these arguments, we designed a field study with an ethnographic approach. The central theme of our research is to read the role of Syrians in the social reproduction of space through potential changes in the rules of the game in a micro-space. We adopted Pierre Bourdieu's concepts of field and habitus to relate the micro-level experiences of actors in space to broader macro contexts. As a result, we concluded that the change in the rules of the game should be defined as a process of mutual uneasiness. What happens in the field at this stage is an attempt to fit into a single space where negotiation rather than cooperation is more prominent and mutual compromises are inevitably made.

THE ISSUES OF SCOPE AND LEGAL STATUS IN WTO – IMF CONSULTATIONS

In designing the international economic governance system after the Second World War, trade and finance, due to the close connection between them, were addressed as parts of a whole. A predictable and stable international monetary system was recognized as prerequisite for healthy and sustainable trade. However, these two issues were regulated under different institutional structures, by envisaging close cooperation and coordination. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), designed to be responsible for international finance and monetary issues, was established in 1944. The International Trade Organization (ITO) was designed to address international trade, while the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), with a limited scope, was temporarily put into implementation in January 1, 1948 to provide rapid tariff reductions until the ratification of ITO Charter. The ITO became still-born as it was not approved by national parliaments, especially the USA, and international trade continued to be regulated by the GATT. The GATT, with its unique organizational structure that gradually developed, continued its existence until the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 and hosted international trade negotiations. WTO, with more advanced legal and institutional structure, took over the functions of the GATT. Formal consultation procedures have constituted an important part of the cooperation between the GATT/WTO and the IMF in the context of the management of international trade and monetary/financial system. These procedures differ from traditional cooperation activities between international organizations and have a special character. It is regulated in a binding language as an obligation for the relevant WTO bodies to apply for consultations with the IMF on certain issues and to comply with the inputs received from the IMF. There are some points open to interpretation regarding the scope of the consultations and the binding and functional status of IMF inputs in the WTO. This study discusses the issues of scope and legal status.

Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

Tagakaulo in Trade: A Phenomenological Exploration on the Journey of Language Preservation

Trade plays a significant role in human history, facilitating the exchange of goods and ideas across cultures, especially language, which is vital for communication, negotiation, and understanding. This paper examined the Tagakaulo language and its role in trade from a phenomenological perspective. The study used a qualitative-phenomenological research design and an in-depth interview (IDI), and it was analyzed using Colaizzi's descriptive phenomenological data analysis. A thematic analysis was used to explore the Tagakaulo language and its role in trade from a phenomenological perspective. The themes that emerged from challenges experienced during the trade of products were Marginalization, Cultural Differences, Lack of Representation, Cultural Preservation, and Language. Cultural Preservation (Language Preservation), Cultural Promotion, and Assimilation emerged from coping mechanisms in navigating trade issues and concerns. Aspects of native language to emphasize mitigating challenges emerged themes of Vocabulary for Trade, Tagakaulo Language Awareness and Utilization, and Trade Etiquette. Future research could further study long-term trade effects on the Tagakaulo dialect and cultures, focusing on language preservation, revitalization through cultural promotion, and the impact of tourism on language documentation, effective trade negotiation strategies on language preferences, cross-cultural communication in trade, and representation of Indigenous voices in trade.

Reserving the right to say no? Equilibria around hard trade‐sustainability commitments in power‐asymmetric contexts

AbstractWhen will stringent sustainability commitments (not) be a stumbling block in the negotiation of trade agreements? Although the existing literature has explored the determinants of the design of sustainability provisions in trade agreements, few works have explored when countries will accept/reject those provisions once their content cannot be changed. Based on insights from game theory, we flesh out the conditions under which there will be an equilibrium in favor of hard sustainability provisions in trade deals. We then present empirical illustrations related to Mexico's participation in the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and Brazil's participation in the EU‐Mercosur trade negotiations. Our model shows that (1) fears of partner opportunism, (2) the costs of nonparticipation in trade deals, and (3) costs of adjustments to hard trade‐sustainability commitments are key to understanding whether a compromise can arise on trade and strong sustainability commitments. The model highlights what sorts of concessions ought to be made for negotiations to prosper. The findings point to how the changing structure of trade governance may affect the decision‐making process of Global South countries. The paper concludes with recommendations and avenues for further research.

A Study of Global Trade War and Its Impact on Indian Economy

A Study of Global Trade War and Its Impact on Indian Economy

A dynamic metaphor perspective on Trump and Xi's trade negotiation in governmental discourse

This article investigates the evolution of U.S.-China trade negotiation in governmental discourse under the presidencies of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (2017–2021). Paying attention to the development of the political context, we examine trade metaphor use in American and Chinese governmental texts from a dynamic metaphor perspective. Based on the three dominant patterns of metaphoricity activation in the Trump and Xi trade corpora, the analyses reveal that trade metaphors in these governmental texts involve dynamic cognitive (metaphoricity transformation), affective (sentiment development), and socio-political (attitude change) processes. Unlike Cameron's (e.g., 2007) finding that the dynamics of metaphor use at a micro timescale (e.g., minutes) contribute to the reconciliation of discourse participants at a macro timescale (e.g., years), the results show that metaphoricity transformation across a micro timeline (e.g., days, months) does not advance the reconciliation across a macro timeline (years). Although the Trump-Xi trade dispute decreased at the end of 2019, the analyses of dynamic metaphors show that bilateral antagonistic perspectives continued for years.