Trade Liberalization In Brazil Research Articles

The impacts of imports and trade liberalization in Brazil: Insights from an aggregate cost function

AbstractBrazil has faced and continues to struggle with difficult economic challenges, including achieving noninflationary economic growth and a manageable external deficit. This paper presents the results of the estimation of an aggregate translog cost function with inputs of domestic capital and labor and imports and outputs of consumption and investment goods. The resulting calculated elasticities give insights into the relationships among the inputs, as well as the possible impacts of further reducing international trade barriers. The findings suggest that all of the inputs are substitutes for one another and that an increase in imports may have at least short‐run negative effects on the demand for domestic capital and labor. However, imports appear to be particularly important in the production of investment goods, so an increase in imports may result in a more than proportionate increase in the output of those products and enhance the long‐term growth of the economy. The responses to current challenges facing Brazil will affect its future economic growth as well as have a broader impact on the international scene. The results described here may help to inform policy makers as they address these issues, particularly with respect to international trade policies.

Unintended consequences of trade integration on child labor

We reassess the impact of greater trade integration on child labor by using a unique database for Brazil where import and export shocks originating from China are allowed to affect child labor through local labor market outcomes. Contrary to existing results in that trade liberalization in developing countries is associated with less child labor regardless the type of trade shock, we find that increases in exports are associated with less child labor whereas increases in imports are related to more child labor. Our results suggest that trade liberalization in Brazil over the 2000 to 2010 period was not necessarily a winner-winner event as locations more exposed to positive variations of imports from China also experienced more poverty and child labor relative to less exposed locations. These findings provide insights into the regional effects of trade, and may have important implications for policies that address child labor.

Local Labor Market and Fertility: Evidence from the Trade Liberalization in Brazil

Local Labor Market and Fertility: Evidence from the Trade Liberalization in Brazil

The Effects of Trade Exposure on Marriage and Fertility Choices: Evidence from Brazil

This paper investigates the effect of a large economic shock on marriage and fertility choices. I exploit the 1990's trade liberalization in Brazil, which created exogenous negative labor market shocks to regions most exposed to foreign competition. While trade liberalization had a positive impact on reducing the price of consumer goods in Brazil, it also negatively impacted employment in previously protected industries, affecting men more than women. I find that young women living in regions more exposed to international competition are less likely to have children. Most effects persist for 20 years after trade liberalization. I use causal mediation analysis to show that declines in the employment rate of young men is an important driver of changes in fertility outcomes of young women. Changes in women's employment opportunities are not a mediator for the effect of trade exposure on fertility. There is no evidence of changes in marriage rates across regions exposed to trade liberalization.

The Effects of Unilateral Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility Choices: Evidence from Brazil

This paper investigates the effect of a large economic shock on marriage and fertility choices. I exploit the 1990's trade liberalization in Brazil which created exogenous negative labor market shocks to regions most exposed to foreign competition. While trade liberalization had a positive impact on reducing the price of consumer goods in Brazil, it also generated a negative impact on employment in previously protected industries, with larger impacts for men than women. I find that young women living in regions more exposed to international competition are less likely to have children. Most effects persist 20 years after trade liberalization. I use causal mediation analysis to show that declines in the employment of young men is an important driver of changes in fertility outcomes of young women. Changes in women's employment opportunities is not a mediator for the e ect of trade exposure on fertility. There is no evidence of changes in marriage rates across regions more or less exposed to trade liberalization.

Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade–induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade–induced shocks on crime. (JEL D31, F13, F16, H41, K42, O17, O19)

Trade Openness and Gender Discrimination

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on gender wage discrimination. The authors employ a simple method that is able to capture the direct impacts of openness at the industry level on the gender wages. The authors find evidence that increasing openness is associated with narrowing wage gap, which results mainly from men’s wages declining. This is consistent with the Becker’s (1957) proposition that competition reduces discrimination in the labor market. The plan of the paper is as follows : 1) Section one introduces; 2) Section two presents the trade liberalization in Brazil; 3) Section three presents the data, strategy and results; and 4) Section four concludes.

Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade-induced shocks on crime.

Local Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

This paper estimates the effect of local labor market conditions on crime in a developing country with high crime rates. Contrary to the previous literature, which has focused exclusively on developed countries with relatively low crime rates, we find that labor market conditions have a strong effect on homicides. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local labor demand. Regions facing more negative shocks experience large relative increases in crime rates in the medium term, but these effects virtually disappear in the long term. This pattern mirrors the labor market responses to the trade shocks. Using the trade liberalization episode to design an instrumental variables strategy, we find that a 10% reduction in expected labor market earnings (employment rate × earnings) leads to a 39% increase in homicide rates. Our results highlight an additional dimension of adjustment costs following trade shocks that has so far been overlooked in the literature.

Assessment of the distributive impact of national trade reforms in Brazil

This paper quantifies the distributional and poverty effects of trade liberalization in Brazil using household survey data. We estimate the consumption and labor impact of Mercosur trade reform following the methodology suggested by Porto (J Int Econ 70:140–160, 2006) and Nicita (J Dev Econ 89(1):19–27, 2009). Results show that trade liberalization had a pro-poor effect in Brazil. This result is largely explained by two major observations: the fact that consumption good prices decreased after Brazil entered Mercosur and a close to zero labor income effect. We find that poverty decreased after national trade liberalization (both for women and men). Additionally, we obtained no significant inequality effects after national trade reforms.

The effects of trade liberalization on productivity growth in Brazil: competition or technology?

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on productivity growth in Brazil. In contrast with the previous literature, we examine whether this relationship is driven by product or input market effects, by including both output and input tariffs in firm-level productivity regressions and allowing for imperfect competition in the product market. The results show that the reductions of input tariffs were more important to explain the productivity growth that took place during trade liberalization in Brazil. Moreover, we find that the reduction in input tariffs led to a rise in mark-ups, while the reduction in output tariffs did the opposite.

Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform

Tracking individual workers across employers and industries after Brazil's trade liberalization in the 1990's shows that foreign import penetration and tariff reductions trigger worker displacements but that neither comparative-advantage industries nor exporters absorb displaced workers for years. There are significantly more displacements and fewer accessions in comparative-advantage industries and at exporters. These findings are robust to instrumenting trade barriers and export status with product demand at Brazil's export destinations and real exchange rate components. Worker effects are important predictors of labor turnover. Trade liberalization is assoicated with significantly more transitions to informal work status and self-employment. Output is reallocated to more productive firms but, given fast labor-productivity growth, this product reallocationi is not accompanied by similar labor reallocation.

Brazil's Trade Liberalization and Growth: Has it Failed?

Unfulfilled expectations about economic growth in Brazil has led many observers to question the ability of the new, open trade regime to put the economy back on a path of sustainable growth. Whereas the country's growth record has been really poor, the evidence suggests that the underlying causes had nothing to do with trade. Quite the contrary. This paper shows that trade liberalization has given an important contribution to two of the main drivers of growth: productivity and investment in physical capital. It argues that these gains were not turned into growth due to an unfavorable macro and institutional environment. It also claims that Brazil could have enjoyed more gains from trade, had it pursued a more aggressive trade policy at home and abroad. The paper concludes by outlining the main issues of a pro-growth, trade policy agenda for the country.

Trade Liberalization and Industry Wage Structure: Evidence from Brazil

Industry affiliation provides an important channel through which trade liberalization can affect worker earnings and wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. This empirical study of the impact of the 1988-94 trade liberalization in Brazil on the industry wage structure suggests that although industry affiliation is an important component of worker earnings, the structure of industry wage premiums is relatively stable over time. There is no statistical association between changes in industry wage premiums and changes in trade policy or between industry-specific skill premiums to university graduates and trade policy. Thus trade liberalization in Brazil did not significantly contribute to increased wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers through changes in industry wage premiums. The difference between these results and those obtained for other countries (such as Colombia and Mexico) provides fruitful ground for studying the conditions under which trade reforms do not have an adverse effect on industry wage differentials

Trade, Technology and Productivity: A Study of Brazilian Manufacturers 1986-1998

Brazil's trade liberalization between 1990 and 1993, and its partial reversal in 1995, are used to study how reduced inward trade barriers affect productivity. The production function of Brazilian manufacturers is estimated at the ISIC3 two-digit level under various alternatives, including an extension of Olley and Pakes' (1996) procedure. Firm-level productivity is inferred and then related to trade. Findings suggest that (1) foreign competition pressures firms to raise productivity markedly, whereas (2) the use of foreign inputs plays a minor role for productivity change. (3) The shutdown probability of inefficient firms rises with competition from abroad, thus contributing positively to aggregate productivity. Counterfactual simulations indicate that the competitive push (1) is an important source of immediate productivity change, while the elimination of inefficient firms (3) unfolds its impact slowly.

New Evidence from Brazil on Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth*

This article presents evidence on the positive effect of international trade on productivity growth using industrial level data preceding and following Brazil's trade liberalization in 1988–90. Our data reveal large and widespread productivity improvement across industries after barriers to trade were drastically reduced. Econometric results confirm the association between trade liberalization and productivity growth and show that the impact was indeed substantial: The observed tariff reduction in the period brought a 6% estimated increase in total factor productivity growth rate and a similar impact on labor productivity.

A Picture of Wage Inequality and the Allocation of Labor Through a Period of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Brazil

This paper constructs a picture of the labor market impact of trade liberalization in Brazil. We examine the level and dispersion of wages, the skilled wage premium, and employment composition before and after trade liberalization. After trade reform, there was a rise in the returns to college education which, since the share of college workers also rose, is attributable to rising demand. This change did not increase overall wage dispersion because of the small share of college-educated workers and because of decreasing returns to intermediate levels of education.