Growth Rate Of Trade Research Articles

Time Series Analysis of the Connection between Exchange Rate of EUR/USD, Bond Yields, and Trade Growth

In the context of the growing importance of global trade, the US dollar plays a crucial role as the currency for international transactions. The exchange rate of the dollar and the monetary policies of other countries influence each other. This study delves into the connection among the exchange rate of Euro/United States dollar (EUR/USD), the 10-year government bond rates with the international trade growth rates of 20 European countries from January 1991 to December 2016. By employing descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression modeling, and time series analysis, this research aims to uncover the underlying dependencies and predictive insights among these financial variables. The results indicate that the EUR/USD exchange rate has an insignificant impact on bond yields (R = 0.003), suggesting that other factors such as monetary policy, inflation expectations, and market liquidity play more significant roles. However, a weaker currency is linked to lower growth rates is shown by a strong negative correlation for the exchange rate and trade growth rates (R = 0.210). The multivariate regression model shows that bond yields and trade growth rates together explain 44.5% of the exchange rate variations, highlighting the interconnections among these economic variables. These findings highlight the necessity for policymakers to take these interconnected factors into account when developing economic and monetary policies to ensure stable and sustainable economic growth.

An Investigation on the Effectiveness and Trade Direction of ASEAN Trade Agreements

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the ASEAN regional trade agreement by comparing the growth rates of intra-ASEAN trade with those of the rest of the world as well as with major trading countries, China, the USA, the EU, and India. The objective of this research is threefold: To identify existing trade trends, to determine the underlying explanations for these trends, and finally, to compare intra-ASEAN trade trends with the inter-ASEAN countries’ trade trends. This paper takes a descriptive approach and dynamic panel GMM methods spanning the years 1990 to 2019. Between 2005 and 2019, growth rates among members of intra-ASEAN, Indonesia-Malaysia, Indonesia-Thailand, Singapore-Thailand, Malaysia-Philippines, and Philippines-Thailand, all decreased. Additionally, although the market share of imports and exports within ASEAN has decreased over time, the market share of imports and exports of inter-ASEAN has increased, especially with China and India. The results of descriptive analysis of inter-ASEAN trade openness are supported by first-differenced GMM and system GMM. This is the first study to examine historical intra-ASEAN trade trends and growth and compare them to inter-ASEAN trade trends and growth to determine whether AFTA has a greater impact on intra-ASEAN trade growth than on inter-ASEAN trade growth using updated aggregated data. This study sheds light on the fact that over the periods intra-ASEAN trade could not outperform inter-ASEAN trade by a significant margin due to trade diversity challenges and incomplete implementation of WTO regulations.

Роль Турции и Китая в системе внешнеэкономических приоритетов России в условиях санкций

The introduction of economic sanctions by western countries against Russia has stimulated the process of reorienting Russian trade and economic ties toward neutral partners, particularly to Turkey and China. This study evaluates the extent to which Russian-Turkish cooperation is becoming more significant a factor in neutralizing the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and compares the relative importance of Turkey and China as trade and economic partners for Russia during the sanctions period. The article explores the potential of Russian-Turkish and Russian-Chinese cooperation. China and Turkey play the role of Russia’s key partners in overcoming the negative consequences of sanctions. The authors conclude that since the start of tough sanctions in 2022–2023, Turkey’s role in Russia’s trade policy grew at a faster pace than China’s role in a number of areas of economic cooperation. This was confirmed by the evidence of faster growth rates of trade, and by more active energy and tourist cooperation, and by Turkey’s level of direct investments comparable to the Chinese one. Despite this, China continues to be the most significant economic partner for Russia. The Western pressure on China under the sanctions during 2023–2024, was felt to a lesser extent than against Turkey. This explained why by the end of 2023, the growth rate of China’s trade with Russia rebegan to outpace the growth rate of Russia’s trade with Turkey. Overall, the anti-sanctions nature of trade policy, based mainly on trade rather than on investments could be depicted as not solid enough, and the likelihood of curtailing ties under pressure from Western countries remains high, that is partially confirmed by the change in the latest dynamics of Russia’s trade with Turkey in 2023–24.

The impact of Chinese cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade

With the rise of trade protectionism, the growth rate of China's export trade has slowed down, but cross-border e-commerce exports have emerged as a "new engine" for China's foreign trade growth. The country has also begun to pay more attention to the development of cross-border e-commerce, introducing a series of policies and establishing many comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones. Against this background, Studying the impact of the development level of cross-border e-commerce on export trade can provide a basis for formulating policies related to cross-border e-commerce, promote the development of cross-border e-commerce in various regions, and drive China's export growth, thereby empowering China's foreign trade industry transformation and upgrading. This article selects the number of online shopping users in each city as a proxy variable for the development level of cross-border e-commerce. Through regression analysis, it can be concluded that the development level of cross-border e-commerce can significantly positively affect export trade, and the heterogeneity analysis results show that there are regional differences in the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade. Finally, policy recommendations were provided based on the research findings.

Improving the standardisation of oil product losses

The effectiveness of standardisation as a form of regulation of processes and results of activity in all spheres of production-technical, commercial-economic, social and other relations is confirmed at the international and regional levels, in the scope of standardisation work in countries with a developed market economy. World and domestic experience has revealed a wide range of problems and tasks that can be solved with the involvement, and sometimes exclusively, by means of standardisation, as well as various forms and methods of solving these problems, which are determined by the state and trends of economic development, conditions and factors of its functioning. The level of scientific and technical progress in many sectors of the world economy, the growth rates of international trade pose new challenges to standardisation. In these conditions, standards become the main economic tool for rationalisation and harmonisation of international trade as an integrated expression of the effective economic development of the country. Harmonisation of domestic standards with international and regional standards creates the necessary conditions for the creation of competitive products based on the updating of the current stock of state and interstate standards; development of technical legislation (technical regulations) regulating issues of safety of products and services for life and health of people, environment; formation of a system of standards of information interaction, in which electronic means of communication make it possible to strengthen international technical cooperation in all spheres of human activity. Certain aspects of improving the quality and competitiveness of products, including by means of standardisation, have been considered in the works of domestic and foreign scientists. However, there are practically no scientific works devoted to ensuring the competitiveness of processes of transportation and storage of petroleum products by means of harmonisation of national standards. The importance of the considered problem and its insufficient development for the economy of Ukraine, its industries and enterprises determine the relevance of the research topic. In this scientific work the analysis of different approaches to the determination of the loss of petroleum products was carried out with the help of regulatory documents approved at the state level. A comparative analysis of the document used for a long time in the post-Soviet space and the document that replaced it in Ukraine was carried out. The approach to determining the loss of organic liquids from tanks of various designs in the USA was analysed, in particular, the possibilities and limitations of using the functions of the TANK 4.0 program to calculate the loss of oil products by evaporation from tanks were studied

The modern tendencies of foreign direct investment flows in conditions of global instability

Investments are one of the main factors that stimulate the growth of production volumes, the development of innovative technologies, that improve the quality and competitiveness of manufactured products, create new jobs and reducing unemployment. FDI are the driving force behind the modernization of the economy of the home country, and the international movement of capital is one of the main driving forces of economic globalization. The study of the current state and prospects in the field of FDI indicates multidirectional aspects of international investment processes. FDI overall stocks are huge, and the growth of their volumes outstrips the growth rates of world GDP and international trade, which is a prerequisite for an in-depth study of FDI and is a particularly urgent task in conditions of global instability.

ПРОБЛЕМЫ НАЛОГООБЛОЖЕНИЯ НДС ТРАНСГРАНИЧНОЙ ЭЛЕКТРОННОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ТОВАРАМИ И ЭЛЕКТРОННЫМИ УСЛУГАМИ В ЕАЭС НА ПРИМЕРЕ КАЗАХСТАНА

VAT taxation of cross-border e-commerce is becoming a rather significant problem for the EAEU countries against the background of the rapid growth of e-commerce and the lack of clear regulatory mechanisms. The unification of approaches to the taxation of the value added of cross-border online sales of goods and services within the EAEU is one of the key factors contributing to integration within the Union. However, due to the fact that the EAEU countries pursue national interests in the conduct of their fiscal policy, the introduction of new legislative initiatives regarding the tax regulation of the e-commerce market leads to difficulties for taxpayers from other EAEU countries. The aim of the work is to study methodological issues related to VAT introduced in Kazakhstan in relation to foreign electronic platforms since 2022, as well as to analyze the impact of this innovation on cross-border trade in the EAEU. Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that the unilateral introduction of VAT by Kazakhstan in relation to foreign electronic platforms creates significant difficulties for foreign companies, and the lack of synchronous adjustment of other national or supranational laws does not contribute to the acceleration of the growth rate of cross-border trade within the EAEU. Specific problems associated with the imperfection of Kazakhstani tax legislation are identified, and the negative impact of this tax on cross-border trade within the EAEU, in particular, on sales of goods from Russia to Kazakhstan, within the current legal framework, is proved.

Global trends of the ecological development of the world economy in digitalization conditions

The article examines the essence of ecological development of the world economy and highlights the main components of this process. It is noted that the digitalization of the world economy, the construction of a network of information and communication technologies is a global technological challenge that cannot but affect the world ecosystem. An analysis of the ecological paradigm, which is a priority and strategic vector for the development of the world economy in modern conditions, has been carried out. It was determined that as a result of the technological and anthropogenic load on the ecosystem, negative changes occur, which are accompanied by social, economic and ecological contradictions in the functioning of the world economy. Modern digitization processes are designed to influence the formation of a harmonious eco-environment and the achievement of sustainable development goals on the scale of the world economy. The conducted analysis shows that the dynamic shifts associated with the development of digitalization of the world economy will only intensify over time. It was noted that digital technologies are one of the tools for ensuring the growth of the world economy, achieving growth in the well-being of the population, and solving problems in the field of environmental protection. It has been studied that the impact of digitalization has both positive and negative consequences on the ecological development of the world economy. Analysis of the structure of international trade suggests that the growth rate of international trade in services is significantly higher than that of international trade in goods. Thus, the widespread use of digital technologies leads to an increase in the volume of export-import of services both in absolute value and in relative share in the overall structure of international trade. It is proposed that the development of the world economy should be based on taking into account and balancing the technological, social and environmental components of the world economic mechanism. And in this chain, it is unacceptable to underestimate the impact of digital technologies on the global ecosystem. When solving economic problems, it is necessary to be guided by the principle of ecological expediency and benefit, since a negative ecological effect can neutralize all economic effects within the framework of a globalized international environment.

The Role of Endogenous Technology in Making Sustained Economic Growth in Sub‒Saharan Africa: Panel GMM and VECM Approaches

This study examines the role of endogenous technology in making sustained economic growth in a panel of 36 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries over the period 1990-2020. We derive total physical capital, total employment productivity (TEP), total factor productivity (TFP) and terms of trade (TOT) growth rates using various concepts. In this sense, the panel of short-run vector error correction model (VECM) and panel of long–run generalized method of moments (GMM) are applied and the estimation results are obtained. The empirical results reveal that there are significantly positive impacts of the growth rates of TFP, TEP and terms of trade (TOT) on real GDP growth rate in the long -run. These are profoundly important indicators for SSA today that timely using endogenous technology can play the central role in succeeding economic growth. And hence, without a greater supply of home–grown talent in the areas of the economic sector, it may be hard to break down the vicious circle of poverty, build prosperous, inclusive and resilient economies that can be feeding the people and enabling the countries to compete with trade globally.

Performance of the Indian Food Processing Industry in the International Market

Food processing is one of the world’s largest industries in terms of the total number of firms involved and the economic value of this sector.This industry can producehigh value-added products that increase an industry’s revenue and the overall growth rate of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.Itis one of India’s; largest and sunrise sectors and holds the fifth rank in production. The food processing industry plays a vital rolein distributing agro-based processed food products to the people in India and abroad for consumption. This paper analyses the performance of the Indian food processing sector in the global market. Itexamines the value of the imports and exports of processed food, India’s tradeGrowth Rate of processed food, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate of Imports and Exports value of processed food products. It also discussed the challenges faced by this sector.

PRELIMINARY IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON AGRI-FOOD TRADE: CHALLENGES AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS (CASE OF GEORGIA)

The role of agri-food trade in food security and agricultural development is substantiated in the article. There is Assessed food trade challenges, export restrictions and import facilitation during the COVID-19 crisis. The paper examines the changes in supply caused by various factors in the production sector in the agri-food sector, hypothesizing that food demand is relatively stable financially, as well as during various crises. The paper analyzes the views of scientists on the difficulties caused by the pandemic, on the basis of which two development scenarios are formulated. Opportunities have been identified for the continuation of trade in agri-food products between countries, and there is a reasonable view on the incentives for trade in these products in the short and long term. In the process of research, through comparative analysis, the indicators of trade in agri-food products of Georgia in the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and post-pandemic (2020-2021) periods are grouped, positive and negative trade trends are identified. At the same time, based on the results of the global financial crisis and the pandemic, an in-depth analysis of typical and atypical crises has been conducted for the agri-food sector around the world and in Georgia. Based on the results of the research, a matrix has been compiled to determine the growth and decline rates of trade in agri-food products before and during the pandemic. The paper draws conclusions and makes recommendations on food trade challenges and trade improvement measures during the COVID-19 crisis.

PRELIMINARY IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON AGRI-FOOD TRADE: CHALLENGES AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS (CASE OF GEORGIA)

The role of agri-food trade in food security and agricultural development is substantiated in the article. There is Assessed food trade challenges, export restrictions and import facilitation during the COVID-19 crisis. The paper examines the changes in supply caused by various factors in the production sector in the agri-food sector, hypothesizing that food demand is relatively stable financially, as well as during various crises. The paper analyzes the views of scientists on the difficulties caused by the pandemic, on the basis of which two development scenarios are formulated. Opportunities have been identified for the continuation of trade in agri-food products between countries, and there is a reasonable view on the incentives for trade in these products in the short and long term. In the process of research, through comparative analysis, the indicators of trade in agri-food products of Georgia in the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and post-pandemic (2020-2021) periods are grouped, positive and negative trade trends are identified. At the same time, based on the results of the global financial crisis and the pandemic, an in-depth analysis of typical and atypical crises has been conducted for the agri-food sector around the world and in Georgia. Based on the results of the research, a matrix has been compiled to determine the growth and decline rates of trade in agri-food products before and during the pandemic. The paper draws conclusions and makes recommendations on food trade challenges and trade improvement measures during the COVID-19 crisis.

Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods

AbstractThis paper compares backcasting performance of models based on variable selection to dynamic factor model for backcasting the world trade growth rate with two months ahead. The variable selection models are specified by applying penalised regressions and an automatic general‐to‐specific procedure, using a large data set. A recursive forecast study is carried out to assess the backcasting performance by distinguishing crisis and non‐crisis periods. The results show that, some selection‐based models exhibit a good backcasting performance during both periods. The more accurate backcasts seem to be SCAD, adaptive Elastic‐Net and adaptive SCAD during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID‐19 crisis, whereas it seems rather Lasso, Elastic‐Net, adaptive Lasso and DFM during the non‐crisis period. Amongst the predictors for backcasting world trade growth, it appears that the index of global economic conditions proposed by Baumeister et al. (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020), the PMI indicator on new export orders in manufacturing sector and the MSCI world index are relevant.

New-generation trade agreement with Japan: Significance to EU Companies

Objective: The New-generation trade agreements, which include the agreement with Japan, provide wide coverage – not only the liberalisation of trade in goods or services but also the protection of intellectual property rights, the public procurement market, sustainable development and others. This paper aims to demonstrate key provisions and (both ex post and ex ante) opportunities that the agreement creates for EU companies. Research Design & Methods: The research methods include a critical review of existing literature, an analysis of relevant legal and official documents of the European Union, as well as the provisions of the EU-Japan trade agreement. The empirical research focused on Eurostat data. Findings: The provisions of the EU-Japan agreement provide an incentive for European companies to strengthen their position on the Japanese market. The elimination of import duties and other barriers to trade in Japan in relation to certain agricultural products on the entry into force of the agreement contributed to higher exports from the EU for these groups of goods. What might be expected is the additional effect of the liberalisation of bilateral trade on third countries. In fact, standards or rules agreed by Japan and the EU may become even more attractive to third countries, as their adoption would facilitate access to two large markets. Implications & Recommendations: Japan is a relatively important trading partner for the EU and vice versa. One of the biggest achievements of the agreement made between the European Union and Japan includes the wide and deep liberalisation of trade in goods. Despite the fact that the overall level of tariff protection is relatively low, there are still some groups of goods for which the protection in the form of customs duties constitutes an important barrier, as a result of which the conditions for competing on the partner’s market deteriorate. It seems that EU entrepreneurs should make more use of the opportunities which are created by the provisions of the free trade agreement with Japan. So far, the trade crisis caused by the pandemic has stood in the way. Contribution & Value Added: Research conducted so far is of an ex ante nature, both regarding the provisions of the agreement (publications written before 2018) and the evaluation of its potential effects on economy, trade, production or selected sectors. The research carried out in this article is of an ex post nature; it covers the period following the entry into force of the agreement and does not present any growth scenarios or forecasts, as was the case in the existing research. The article attempted to juxtapose the provisions of the agreement with Japan with trade conditions applicable to EU companies, as well as with the growth rate, volume and coverage of bilateral trade in goods.

A study on the impact of EU membership on Sino-CEEC trade in the context of the 17+1 cooperation mechanism

This study examines trade relations between the 17 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) and China, which are members of the 17+1 Cooperation mechanism. Given that some CEECs are not members of the European Union, while others are, this study aims to examine the impact of EU membership on their trade relations with China. The analysis of the data shows that countries that are EU members tend to have a larger volume of trade, as well as a larger range of products that are traded. In contrast, higher growth rates of trade between non-EU CEEEs and China could indicate that EU membership is hampering Sino-CEEC trade. Finally, econometric analysis, based on the gravity model, suggests that EU membership has a positive and significant contribution to Sino-CEEC trade.

How are service automation and national ICT development associated with international trade in services?

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate how service automation is associated with the volume of international trade in services and how the interactions of automation, industry, and national ICT development are associated with it. We use data from the U.N. Comtrade, O*NET Online, the U.N. Global ICT Development Index, and the World Bank Open Data to test our hypotheses. We find that the marginal year-by-year growth rates of international trade in highly automatable services decreased in 2007–2017, whereas those of international trade in less automatable services have increased. ICT development is positively associated with the volume and annual growth rate of a country's service exports, but it is negatively associated with the volume and annual growth rate of the country's service imports. The growth rate of international trade in highly automatable services is lower for importing countries with advanced ICT, but it is higher for exporting countries with advanced ICT.

IMPACT OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MEMBER COUNTRIES IN ASIA

The study sought to answer the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economic growth of Asian countries and how its growth affects various economic sectors of Asian countries. One of the significant contributions of this paper is that it highlights factors in Asian countries that account for the successful implementation of the Belt and Road initiative. The findings of this study are to serve as a guideline for firms, individuals, government, or any other entity willing to invest in Asian countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. Similarly, the study focused on identifying critical sectors of the host nation’s economy that are being impacted significantly by the Belt and Road initiative in Asia. The findings of the study are to serve as a guide to governments, corporate entities, and all stakeholders in Asia the most likely sectors of their economy likely to be impacted significantly by the Belt and Road Initiative. On economic growth it was realized that BRI from mainland China has a significant positive effect on the GDP growth rate of Asia. However, BRI showed no direct significant effect on the various economic sectors, previous year’s GDP growth rate has a significant positive effect on agriculture growth rate, manufacturing growth rate, services growth rate and external balance of trade growth rate indicating that there is a significant spillover from GDP growth rate as a result of BRI to other sectors of the economy.

An empirical analysis of the influence of financial development on export trade: evidence from Jiangsu province, China

In the past 30 years, Jiangsu Province in China has achieved great feats regarding its export trade; however, its export trade growth rate has not only been showing a recent downward trend but also great fluctuations. Hence, the competitiveness of Jiangsu Province’s export products seems to have weakened. Through an empirical analysis, we demonstrate the relationship between financial development and export trade in Jiangsu Province, showing that the influence of financial development on the growth and the structure of provincial export trade is relatively weak. Thus, we believe that provincial financial development lacks coordination with export trade, requiring further efforts from actors at coordinating both. This paper puts forward relevant suggestions that may facilitate stakeholders to promote the steady development, transformation, and improvement of Jiangsu Province’s export trade.

Masa Depan Industri Pariwisata Kota Palangka Raya (Perspektif dan Solusinya)

The tourism industry is a driver of the economy nationally, regionally and locally. As one source of local revenue (PAD) city of Palangka Raya, this sector received priority attention. Since the last 10 years developing the tourism industry and has developed a fairly good growth. This sector could boost GDP growth in the field of business; perdagangangn. hotels and restaurants. But seen from the growth in tourist arrivals is still dominated by local tourist arrivals, tourist arrivals have not been well explored. Some of the problems, challenges and constraints experienced in the development of the tourism industry. This condition is a manifestation of improvement and even become a dilemma that must be managed in harmony. The future of the city of Palangka Raya tourism industry has good prospects can be anticipated by considering the factors that influence. The study was conducted in the districts that have the potential of nature tourism (ecotourism), using descriptive qualitative research methods and kunatitif and SWOT analisis. In terms of the economy, the tourism sector of the city of Palangka Raya has particularly bright future . The growth rate of GDP, trade, hotel and restaurant sector the role of tourism as a revenue contributor serial number 3.

GLOBAL ARMS MARKET: KEY PLAYERS, FEATURES, TRENDS

This article analyzes the current situation in the global arms market. The authors of the article study the role of the main players in the international arms and military equipment market, determine the main trends in the development of the world arms market, analyze the current statistical data characterizing the state of this market. The analysis allows us to conclude that, despite significant dynamic and structural changes, the demand for weapons in the world is not decreasing, as is the competition between the main suppliers of weapons. The intensification of military-political tensions led to an acceleration in the growth rates of the world arms trade. In addition, the geographic vector of development is changing in the global arms market. If in the second half of the twentieth century the Middle East actively acted as importing countries, then in the twenty-first century the center of world trade in military products shifted to Asia and Oceania, where the main importers of weapons are India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan and Australia. Most recently, there has been a new increase in demand for weapons from the Middle Eastern states, primarily Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Egypt.