Trade Frictions Research Articles

Empirical evidence on the impact of the "new round" of Sino-US trade frictions on China's foreign trade industrial policy and high-quality development.

The global attention on industrial policy's effectiveness spans across various sectors, particularly in international trade where the focus is on enhancing the quality of foreign trade, which is crucial to understand how research hotspots and key issues can synergize. We consider the 2018 "new round" of Sino-US trade friction as an external event and analyze panel data from 2009 to 2022 comprising 1141 Chinese A-share listed enterprises. Our empirical research unequivocally demonstrates that industrial policy has significantly propelled China's foreign trade towards high-quality development by 1.8240%. We conducted rigorous tests for robustness, heterogeneity, and endogeneity. Additionally, our results reveal that inhibitory influences arising from industrial policy on total assets or R&D investment attenuate this promotion effect; There exists a diminishing promotion effect between total assets and R&D investment. Our paper provides valuable insights into understanding their logical relationship while offering guidance for enterprises, markets, and governments in overcoming challenges collectively.

How China can promote the outer circular economy under policy uncertainty

This paper utilizes the trade gravity model under the “double-cycle” pattern and selects the trade and export panel data of China in general and 31 provinces and cities located on mainland China specifically to the U.S. from 2008 to 2022 to analyze not only the reasons for the emergence of trade friction shocks between China and the U.S. but also the effects of trade friction shocks on trade between China and the U.S. and the characteristics of each market's export potential. The results of the study reveal that the volume of China's secondary industry GDP and the U.S. economic freedom index play a positive role in promoting China‒U.S. trade, while the volume of the U.S. GDP, the U.S. population, the trade distance between China and the U.S., and the number of U.S.‒China trade barrier notifications impede China‒U.S. trade. Furthermore, on the basis of the measurement of the trade potential equation, the provinces and municipalities of China's mainland are classified into the U.S. trade and export markets, and ways and means are sought to improve the potential of China's trade and exports with the U.S. Moreover, on the basis of the trade potential equation, China in general and the mainland provinces and cities specifically are divided into export markets to the U.S. to find ways to increase China's trade and export potential to the U.S. and promote China's “outward circulation” economy.

Do short-sale constraints inhibit information acquisition? Evidence from regulation SHO

We investigate how short-sale constraints influence investor information acquisition. Leveraging the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) Regulation SHO pilot program, we find that relaxed short-sale constraints lead to increased public information acquisition by investors. Investors acquire and process valuable information and utilize it to improve their short-selling decisions after the relaxation of short-sale constraints. We obtain similar findings using a quasi-natural experiment in China that lifted short-sale bans, supporting the external validity of our results. Collectively, our evidence demonstrates that reduced trading frictions promote information acquisition and contribute to price discovery.

Cross-country price dispersion: Retail network or national border?

Why do prices differ among regions without significant trade frictions, such as the euro area? This study examines the impact of a national border on grocery prices in the economically and culturally integrated German–Austrian border region. Based on retail transactions from a large household panel, we analyse price differences of identical products sold within a narrow band along the border. We show that even retailers operating in both countries charge different prices for identical products on each side of the border. Over all products, prices are on average more than 14% higher on the Austrian side. The underlying absolute price differences average to around 20%, but vary over products and time, suggesting limits to arbitrage in cross-border shopping. This study demonstrates that even in highly integrated areas, national borders continue to matter for retail pricing.

The Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Green Technology Innovation: Evidence from China’s Enterprises

Promoting green technology innovation is essential for sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon economy. Using data from listed manufacturing companies in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper takes the establishment of permanent normal trade relations with the United States after China’s accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences method to study the impact of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on firms’ green technology innovation. The results show the following: (1) Reduced trade policy uncertainty significantly enhances green technology innovation in firms. (2) Further research finds that the decline in trade policy uncertainty mainly promotes the level of the green technology innovation of firms by alleviating financing constraints faced by firms and intensifying market competition. (3) A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact is more pronounced in firms with lower capital intensity, higher growth, export firms, and firms exporting to the United States. This study offers micro-level empirical evidence from China on the economic outcomes of external trade policy changes from the perspective of firms’ green technology innovation and provides insights into how the government should respond to the risks of external trade frictions and improve firms’ sustainable development in the future.

Does Sino-US trade friction hurt corporate resilience? Evidence from Chinese enterprises

As the world’s largest foreign trading country, China has faced numerous trade investigations in recent years. We select panel data from China’s manufacturing A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021 to explore the impact of Sino-US trade friction on corporate resilience and its internal mechanisms. The results show that: (1) The intensification of Sino-US trade friction significantly reduces the resilience of Chinese microenterprises. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests using PSM-DID and other methods. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the resilience of export enterprises, high-tech enterprises, and enterprises in developed regions are more severely impacted by Sino-US trade friction. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that Sino-US trade friction damages enterprise resilience mainly through three channels: damaging the spirit of entrepreneurs, reducing internal operating profits, and exacerbating external financing constraints. The results provide theoretical and empirical support for understanding the survival effects of microeconomic entities under the impact of Sino-US trade friction.

Research On the Impact of China's Industrial Chain Security Under US-China Trade Friction Based on DID Methodology

Research On the Impact of China's Industrial Chain Security Under US-China Trade Friction Based on DID Methodology

A multinational firm’s global manufacturing location and outsourcing strategies

Due to rising labor costs in China and trade friction, many multinational firms (MNFs) consider moving manufacturing outside China to Southeast Asian Countries. Based on observations in real world, we build a three-tier supply chain model consisting of one component supplier, two contract manufacturers (CMs), an MNF, and a local original equipment manufacturer (OEM). The MNF monopolizes the market in country 1 (e.g., U.S.), but competes in country 2 (e.g., China) with the local OEM. The component supplier and one CM are located in country 2, and the other CM is located in country 3 (e.g., a country in Southeast Asia). We investigate the MNF’s global manufacturing location and procurement outsourcing strategies with considerations of tariffs and market environments. Currently, the MNF outsources its manufacturing to the CM in country 2, and decides whether to continue the cooperation with the current CM or develop a new CM in country 3. The MNF also considers whether to outsource its component procurement to the corresponding CM. Our study reveals that the MNF’s optimal strategy depends on the relative market sizes, the fixed cost of developing a new CM, as well as the manufacturing cost and tariff disadvantages in country 2. Interestingly, we find that the tariff disadvantage in country 2 does not always motivate the MNF to cooperate with the CM in country 3. Instead, an appropriate tariff may be beneficial to the MNF that manufactures in country 2. In addition, the MNF’s preferred procurement strategy is related to its manufacturing location. When cooperating with the CM in country 2, the MNF would switch from direct procurement to outsourced procurement as the market size of country 1 increases.

Adapting to trade friction: The supply chain dynamics of Chinese suppliers

Adapting to trade friction: The supply chain dynamics of Chinese suppliers

The Impact of US-China Trade Friction on China's High-Tech Sector

The main axis of the US-China game deepens from Trump's trade war to Biden's tech wars. At the same time, the chip industry has gradually become the main battlefield for the United States to suppress and curb China's scientific and technological fields. Whereas chips are an essential part of modern military equipment, communications facilities, nuclear power plants, transport systems and other critical infrastructure. Early mastery of the core chip technology can be early not to be constrained by others, to avoid the risk of being "necked".This paper will analyse the reasons why China makes the US feel that its national security is threatened, the impact of the US-China trade friction on China's science and technology sector, and find out the measures that China can take to deal with the US sanctions related to the science and technology sector, as well as the right way for China to get along with the US.

An Analysis of Trade Protectionism from the Perspective of the Community of Human Destiny

With the continuous advancement of the process of trade globalization, free trade has become the dominant form of today's world economic system. However, it cannot be ignored that trade protectionism still exists and has gradually risen in recent years. The rise of trade protectionism, to a certain extent, has caused disorder in the international trade order and intensified trade frictions between countries, which fundamentally violates the objective law of the development of global economic integration. As a big country with a sense of responsibility, it is necessary for China to put forward China's plan to guide and resolve this problem in a targeted way from the perspective of the community of human destiny.

Study on the Motivation of Nonlinear Trajectory of Corporate Financialization and the Impact of Financial Performance

With the continuous changes in the global market environment and the intensification of trade friction between China and the United States, the downward pressure on China's real economy has increased. Entity enterprises have been involved in the financial and real estate and other virtual economy, in order to obtain high profits, the entity enterprise "de-realization to virtual" phenomenon is becoming more and more serious. In recent years, the state has introduced a series of policies to guide manufacturing enterprises to "return to the real", of which "deleveraging" in the supply-side structural reform has become an important means to regulate the disconnection between the real and the virtual economy. How to guide and promote the manufacturing enterprises to "return to reality" is the key to promote the high-quality development of China's economy, but how the impact needs to be studied in depth. Taking Huamao shares as a case study, this study selects 15 key financial indicators between 2010 and 2022, and applies the entropy method to quantitatively analyze the differential impact on financial performance of the company's financialization behavior between 2010 and 2019 and its de-financialization process from 2020 to the present. By deeply exploring the non-linear development trajectory of financialization and its specific impact on the financial performance of the company, this paper reveals that Huamao's financialization behavior, while promoting investment returns, has generated investment substitution effects and in turn has generated obvious crowding-out effects on the company's main business, thus weakening the profitability of the company. In view of this, it puts forward relevant policy suggestions for the financialization of manufacturing enterprises, which helps to guide industrial capital to return to the main business and accelerate the upgrading and transformation of manufacturing industry under the background of revitalization of the real economy vigorously advocated by the state and has certain guiding significance, and emphasizes the importance of returning to the manufacturing industry and the necessity of returning to the industry as the core engine for promoting the long-term and stable growth of China's economy in order to provide a reference path for the development of other financialized real enterprises. It emphasizes the importance and necessity of the return of the manufacturing industry as the core engine for promoting the long-term stable growth of China's economy, with a view to providing a reference path for the development of other financialized real enterprises.

The impacts of the China–US trade war on China’s trade and greenfield investment

We assess the impacts of the China–US trade war on the bidirectional trade and investment flows of China. We find that China’s exports and imports both dropped sharply after the trade war began. In terms of investment flows, we find that China’s greenfield investment in the US faltered in the face of the increasing trade friction, but the impact of the trade war on the US’s greenfield investment in China is ambiguous. In addition, the trade friction only impeded the export volumes of China and had an insignificant impact on the export prices. In contrast, both the import volumes and prices for China decreased.

The Effects of the Development Zone Upgrading on the Diversification of Firm’s Product Exports: Evidence from Chinese Exporters

Against the backdrop of frequent international trade frictions, reducing external risks in export trade through industrial policies has become crucial for China’s high-quality and steady foreign trade development. This paper examines the impact of development zone upgrading policies on the diversification of firm product exports by using a time-varying difference-in-differences model. We find that after the upgrading of development zones, the diversification of firm product exports increases by 2.13%, and concentration decreases by 1.33%. Moreover, this policy has a stronger impact on the diversification level of product exports for firms upgraded to customs special supervision areas, located inland, and engaged in general trade. These conclusions remain robust even after conducting additional robustness tests using alternative measures of the dependent variable, different identification methods for development zone upgrading, and controlling for other industrial policy effects. Furthermore, the upgrading of development zones improves export diversification through three main channels: enhancing firm innovation capabilities, optimizing management efficiency, and providing financial support to firms.

The role of management characteristics in trade frictions and corporate financialization

This paper selects A-share listed companies involved in overseas operations from 2008 to 2012 to explore the complex relationship between trade frictions and corporate financialization in depth. The study results show that trade frictions have a significant positive effect on the level of corporate financialization, and this effect is more significant in the presence of self-interested motives of managers. It is also found that trade frictions further promote corporate financialization by affecting managers' myopia. This finding has important theoretical and practical implications for understanding the impact of trade frictions on firms' strategic choices and formulating corresponding policy recommendations.

How Important are Sino-Latin American Trade for Economic Growth? A Trade in Value-Added Perspective

Sino-Latin American trade have increased substantially for decades. However, the increasing trade imbalances between China and several Latin American countries have yielded growing trade frictions. In this paper, we re-calculate the bilateral trade balance using the value-added content in trade and measure the contribution of Sino-Latin American trade to economic growth. The results show that gross trade statistics seriously overestimate the real bilateral trade imbalance, and China’s trade surplus with Mexico decreased by over 50%. The composition of Sino-Latin American trade suggests that most Latin American economies are complementary with Chinese economy. The South-South trade has been increasingly important for both China’s and Latin America’s economic development. We foresee an optimistic future of relations and continuously increasing trade between China and Latin America. Meanwhile, more efforts should be made to settle trade frictions and intensify Sino-Latin American relations.

浅析WTO 对《美国对进口晶体硅光伏产品的保障措施》的裁决

This article focuses on the safeguards measure case of “China vs. U.S. Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products” and deeply explores the relevant issues related to safeguard measures in international trade remedies involved in this case. Research on this issue will help China better understand responding to related trade frictions in international trade has enabled China to change its passive position into an active position in dealing with such issues. This article explains the safeguard measure case of “China vs. United States Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products” and then introduces the rules of the WTO safeguard measure system. It then analyzes the five focus points of dispute, focusing on the expert group’s analysis of the causal relationship in this case. Identify the situation, and finally discuss China’s response to such situations.

Trade War Actions, Reporting Strategies, and Stock Market Reactions

Investors’ perceptions of uncertainty have increased since Donald Trump’s inauguration, primarily as a result of trade frictions. In the context of China-US trade frictions, this study investigates the joint effects of the actions of the parties and media tone on the Chinese stock market. The trade friction reports are classified into 12 groups based on two dimensions, that is, the actions of the parties and the tone of the state-controlled media. The result shows that the role played by the state-controlled media depends on the actions taken by both the parties, as well as the type of firms. Specifically, when the US took action, either launched attacks or made concessions, adopting a high tone played some role in boosting returns and curbing fluctuations; adjusting reporting strategies also played some role in elevating the liquidity of both types of firms and influencing domestic southbound investments. Market reactions were more influenced by the actions than the official attitudes when China made concessions or when both sides took action (attacks or concessions).

Time-variant safe haven currencies

This study investigates the temporal variation in the safe haven status of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar, using a rolling GARCH-in-mean model. Until the global financial crisis, the U.S. dollar was likely a safe haven currency, while the Swiss franc has been one since the crisis. The Japanese yen later emerged as a safe haven and retained its status during the U.S.–China trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that national economic policies, market liquidity, and socio-political events affect safe haven status.

Research on the Impact of ESG Performance on Corporate Exports

The development of a green and low-carbon economy has become a crucial topic in global economic advancement. China's export trade faces a complex international landscape characterized by escalating trade frictions, rising trade protectionism, and a sluggish traditional trade environment in the post-pandemic era. This paper primarily explores the relationship between the ESG performance of Chinese A-share listed companies and their export activities. Initially, it conducts a literature analysis on the impact of ESG performance on corporate exports from the perspectives of environment, social responsibility, and corporate governance. This paper conducts empirical analyses using relevant regression models to test the hypotheses. Furthermore, in examining the transmission pathways of the impact of ESG performance on corporate exports, an intermediate variable regression model is established to analyze the specific roles played by corporate innovation as a mediator. In conclusion, the findings are as follows: (1) Overall ESG performance positively influences corporate exports, indicating that better ESG performance is conducive to enhanced export activities. (2) Enterprises with superior ESG performance can promote exports by improving their innovation capabilities.