Timber Tracts Research Articles

Perceptions of and adaptation to changing winter weather by logging business owners in northern Minnesota, USA

ABSTRACT Focus groups with northern Minnesota logging business owners were held in spring 2023 to understand perceived and observed winter weather changes, challenges they may be facing due to any winter weather changes, and strategies they are taking to adapt to changing conditions. These discussions focused on logger perceptions of weather-related changes during the winter logging season over the course of their career, impacts of weather-related changes on harvest productivity, changes in business practices due to weather-related changes, and positive impacts due to winter weather changes. Most focus group participants are perceiving changing winter weather conditions and experiencing additional challenges to their winter logging operations due to these changes. They described how winter weather changes are impacting harvesting production and profitability, as well as how they have adapted their logging practices in response to these changes. The evolution of logging equipment and the characteristics of timber tracts available to harvest in winter, as well as greater sensitivity to soil rutting and compaction, make it difficult to discern the extent to which their observed changes in winter logging operations can be attributed solely to weather-related changes.

Perceptions and reality: How National Forest System employee views correlate with frequency of unsold timber offerings

When National Forest System (NFS) tracts of timber are offered for sale and do not receive any bids from prospective buyers, mandated sales targets may be missed, additional costs can be incurred to the agency, and there is potentially lost opportunity for sustainable forest management. We validated NFS employee perceptions of unsold or “no-bid” offerings against observed no-bid sales. Using ordinary least squares, we regress three different definitions of timber sales against proximate and underlying factors influencing no-bids. We found statistical significance for some proximate factors, including small tree diameter at breast heigh, seasonal restrictions, and low volume sales. However, the sign of the coefficients for seasonal restrictions and low volume sales were not what we would have expected. Furthermore, we found statistical significance for underlying factors, including perceptions regarding market information and unplanned road costs with coefficient signs in the direction expected. Moreover, we provide some detailed suggestions for future data collection and other avenues for research. Although our data have some limitations, these findings further our understanding of public timber sales.

The Influence of Timber Types, Assortments, Qualities, Cuttings, Timber Tracts, Prices, Places, and Marketing Expenses on Timber Sales Volumes

The timber industry is one source of state revenue that plays an essential role in the forestry sector. However, this sector only grew by 3.66% in the Q4 of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018 by 4.25%. Timber sales also decreased by 5.6% due to several factors such as price adjustments, timber availability, and the quality level of the timber sold. This research aims to analyze the influence of the 4Ps of Marketing, namely products and their attributes in timber type, assortment, quality, cutting, timber tract, price, place, and marketing expenses on timber sales volume in July - December 2019. This research uses secondary data, which are processed using the multiple regression analysis methods. The results of this study indicate that the type of timber (X1), assortment (X2), quality (X3), cutting (X4), timber tract (X5), and price (X6) partially have a significant effect on timber sales volume (Y). Meanwhile, place (X7) and marketing expenses (X8) partially have no significant impact on the timber sales volume (Y). However, simultaneously all these variables have a significant effect on the timber sales volume (Y).

Estimating Auctions with Externalities: The Case of USFS Timber Auctions

Abstract I introduce an empirical auction model where in addition to the private value that each bidder receives upon winning the auction, losing bidders incur a negative externality that depends on the identity of the rival winner. I show how the externalities and private value distributions can be identified and estimated in such a model. I then apply the model to U.S. Forest Service timber auctions. I find that mill bidders impose significant externalities on one another of between 10% and 22% of the heterogeneous portion of their valuation. This leads the timber tracts to be misallocated in 5.2% of the auctions in my sample.

Prevalence of hearing loss among noise-exposed workers within the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector, 2003-2012.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of hearing loss among noise-exposed US workers within the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (AFFH) sector. Audiograms for 1.4 million workers (17 299 within AFFH) from 2003 to 2012 were examined. Prevalence, and the adjusted risk for hearing loss as compared with the reference industry (Couriers and Messengers), were estimated. The overall AFFH sector prevalence was 15% compared to 19% for all industries combined, but many of the AFFH sub-sectors exceeded the overall prevalence. Forestry sub-sector prevalences were highest with Forest Nurseries and Gathering of Forest Products at 36% and Timber Tract Operations at 22%. The Aquaculture sub-sector had the highest adjusted risk of all AFFH sub-sectors (PR = 1.70; CI = 1.42-2.04). High risk industries within the AFFH sector need continued hearing conservation efforts. Barriers to hearing loss prevention and early detection of hearing loss need to be recognized and addressed.

Estimating Auctions with Externalities: The Case of USFS Timber Auctions

This paper studies how bidding strategies and auction outcomes are affected by downstream competition, particularly for USFS timber auctions. This is done by extending the auction estimation literature to a model where outside competition affects bidding behavior in that bidders are then not only concerned with whether they win the auction, but also the identity of the winner if it is not them. Applying the estimation technique to the case of timber auctions, I find that downstream competition in the lumber industry affects the bidding behavior of mill bidders, sometimes leading to the misallocation of timber tracts.

A Comparison of Lake States Logger and Forester Perceptions of Ideal State Timber Tract Characteristics

Through a mail survey, we contrasted Department of Natural Resources (DNR) forester perceptions of what loggers consider to be the “ideal” timber sale with loggers' actual preferences concerning timber sale characteristics in the Lake States. Lake States DNR foresters were able to predict with reasonable accuracy tract characteristics that were most important to loggers, as well as the preferred number of markets and contract length. However, foresters somewhat overestimated loggers' preferred tract size and volume for state timber sales. Fidelity to a state's conventional timber sale auction method was high among loggers, with slight deviations in Michigan and Wisconsin. However, a substantial number of Michigan and Minnesota loggers expressed a preference for the less commonly offered payment method in their state, and few foresters in these states were aware of this preference. These findings contribute to our understanding of logger bidding preferences and suggest areas of consideration for state timber sale program administrators that may help ensure the continued success of their programs.

Preferred Timber Tract Characteristics in the Lake States under Varying Market Conditions

Preferred Timber Tract Characteristics in the Lake States under Varying Market Conditions

산업연관분석을 활용한 물발자국 인벤토리 개발

물발자국은 제품과 서비스를 생산하는데 전과정 혹은 전체 공급망에서 사용된 담수의 양을 나타낸다. 물발자국 평가는 인간의 활동과 관련된 물의 희소성 및 오염과 관련된 정보를 파악하는데 보다 많은 정보를 주기 때문에 물소비관점에서 지속가능한 물관리에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 물발자국 제도의 도입을 위해서 물발자국 데이터베이스/물계정이 필수적인데 국내에서 전 산업부분에 적용할 수 있는 DB가 전무하다. 따라서 이 연구의 목적은 산업연관분석법을 이용해 국내의 403개 산업분야에 대한 물발자국 인벤토리를 개발하는 것이다. 주요 연구결과로는 농업분야의 물사용량이 전체 직접수의 79%를 차지하며, 공업분야는 간접수의 사용량이 82%로 주를 이루는 것으로 분석되었다. 물사용량은 벼가 가장 많지만, 다음은 수산양식과 과일 생산으로 조사되었고, 가장 물사용강도(<TEX>$m^3$</TEX>/원)가 높은 것은 비식용작물(103,263 <TEX>$m^3$</TEX>/백만원)로 분석되었고, 이와 같은 결과는 비식용작물(초지생산등)의 직접수는 많지만 경제적 가치가 매우 낮아 높은 물사용강도를 보여주고 있다. 다음은 육림, 철광석, 원목, 수산양식, 상수도, 잡곡 등의 순으로 물사용 강도가 높게 나타났다. 전체적 관점에서 총 물사용량중56%가 간접수가 차지하기 때문에 간접수를 고려한 산업분야의 수자원관리, 즉 공급망에서 전과정을 고려한 관리가 물사용 효율성을 높이는데 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있다. 전과정 개념과 산업연관분석법을 이용한 물사용강도 자료는 물발자국 도입시 제품단위 물발자국 산정의 기초 인벤토리로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Water footprint of a product and service is the volume of freshwater used to produce the product, measured in the life cycle or over the full supply chain. Since water footprint assessment helps us to understand how human activities and products relate to water scarcity and pollution, it can contribute to seek a sustainable way of water use in the consumption perspective. For the introduction of WFP scheme, it is indispensable to construct water inventory/accounting for the assessment, but there is no database in Korea to cover all industry sectors. Therefore, the aim of the study is to develop water footprint inventory within a nation at 403 industrial sectors using Input-Output Analysis. Water uses in the agricultural sector account for 79% of total water, and industrial sector have higher indirect water at most sectors, which is accounting for 82%. Most of the crop water is consumptive and direct water except rice. The greatest water use in the agricultural sectors is in rice paddy followed by aquaculture and fruit production, but the greatest water use intensity was not in the rice. The greatest water use intensity was 103,263 <TEX>$m^3$</TEX>/million KRW for other inedible crop production, which was attributed to the low economic value of the product with great water consumption in the cultivation. The next was timber tract followed by iron ores, raw timber, aquaculture, water supply and miscellaneous cereals like corn and other edible crops in terms of total water use intensity. In holistic view, water management considering indirect water in the industrial sector, i.e. supply chain management in the whole life cycle, is important to increase water use efficiency, since more than 56% of total water was indirect water by humanity. It is expected that the water use intensity data can be used for a water inventory to estimate water footprint of a product for the introduction of water footprint scheme in Korea.

The impact of timber-sale tract, policy, and administrative characteristics on state stumpage prices: An econometric analysis

An econometric analysis was conducted to assess how tract, policy, and administrative factors of public timber sales influence willingness to pay for stumpage. To do so, we obtained an electronic database containing multiple years of MN DNR timber-sale records. Each record contained information on the timber sale's total appraised volume, species-product composition, tract acres, date of sale, date of sale expiration, method of sale, purchasing firm, and tract location. A total of 4,395 records of MN DNR timber tracts sold from 2001 to 2006 were analyzed. By incorporating physical, ecological, policy, and administrative factors of a timber sale, our model was able to explain approximately 63% of the variation in the natural log of stumpage prices. Sale-specific characteristics found to be significant drivers of stumpage prices are species-product composition, tract location, end-product market conditions, season of sale, harvestable volume density, length of the sale contract, seasonal operating restrictions, total appraised volume, and auction method.

Soil Disturbances from Horse/Mule Logging Operations Coupled with Machines in the Southern United States

Forest harvesting with animals is a labor-intensive operation. While mechanized logging is very efficient for large tracts of timber, it is often disruptive to the soil. Small logging operations using animals may be less environmentally disruptive. To better understand horse/mule logging performances for soil disturbance, five different horse/mule harvesting operations were investigated. About 75 percent of the soil was undisturbed and 22 percent of the remaining soil disturbance was judged to be slight. Only 3 percent of the soil examinations were classified as deeply disturbed and rutted – a condition considered to be prone to soil erosion. This study suggests that horse and mule logging has low soil disturbance in a partial cut of mixed pine/hardwood forests.

Real-Time Tree Localization in Orchards

Tree localization is essential in numerous horticultural studies. In this study, a technique was developed to localize trees planted upon a uniform grid, such as in orchard and timber tracts manually planted at a specific tree spacing. Tree localization information is necessary for the development of yield, scout, or other management maps. Tree crops introduce new challenges with creating yield maps, as well as any management map, because accurate positional data cannot be obtained by the use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) when a clear view of the sky does not exist under the tree canopy. External to a canopy, a GPS can yield accurate positional data whereas underneath the canopy it cannot do so reliably. In this study, tree localization inside the canopy is obtained from combined information of partially known a priori tree plot characteristics and real-time sensed odometric information. The PR&S (periodic resetting and snap) method, developed partly based on the interpoint distance method, can be implemented to effectively localize every tree inside a given orchard. An encoder-based system and a DGPS-based system concurrently collected data in an open canopy orchard and in a dense canopy orchard to measure each system's accuracies in situ. The accuracy of each system was analyzed using a normalized root mean square error (RMSEn) and an absolute percentage error (APE). The encoder-based system in association with the PR&S method successfully localized all trees in both orchard configurations whereas the DGPS-based system did not produce enough accuracy in the dense canopy orchard.

On the Banks of the Bann: The Riverine Economy of an Ulster Plantation Village

Research excavations at Movanagher, the chief Londonderry Plantation settlement of the Mercers’ Company of London, focused upon the role of the River Bann in the local and regional economy. Sited in 1611 near an ancient ford on the second longest river in Ireland and adjacent to established salmon fisheries, eel fisheries, extensive timber tracts and abundant clay resources, Movanagher was designed for profit, not defense, and ultimately succumbed to the Irish Rebellion of 1641. The archaeology of this green-field site with its mill, fisheries, brickworks, bawn, and scattered dwellings provides valuable insight into the central role of the river, both in daily life and in the process of the plantation itself. It highlights the mindset, motivations, and ultimate miscalculations of the English who planned the settlement, while underscoring the complexity of relations between natives and newcomers.

The Impact of Timber Harvesting Guidelines and Timber Sale Attributes on Stumpage Bidding Behavior

Abstract Twenty-seven public timber tracts were auctioned in Minnesota where bidders were required to submit two sealed bids for a tract–one with and the other without the use of timber harvesting guidelines. After the auctions, bidders were mailed a questionnaire requesting information about their logging business, the sources of information consulted in developing their bids, and perceptions of how various tract- and sale-specific factors and guidelines influenced their bidding behavior. The majority of responding timber harvesters did not consult any special sources and only one-half visited the tract before submitting their bids. Although bidding behavior was influenced by several factors, a tract's physical characteristics (e.g., volume of merchantable timber) had a greater influence on their bidding behavior than did any guidelines. Of the guidelines evaluated, those that required leaving merchantable trees (e.g., for wildlife or visual purposes) were reported to have the greatest influence on stumpage bids. Sale-specific variables (e.g., timber harvester's need for timber) had only a minimal to moderate influence on bidding behavior. The findings suggest that timber sale design can help mitigate the cost associated with implementing forest management guidelines.North. J. Appl. For. 22(4):275–280.

The Impact of Minnesota's Forest Management Guidelines on the Time Required to Set Up Public Agency Timber Sales

Abstract Twenty-six public agency tracts of timber were offered for sale in northern Minnesota through a sealed bidding process during Fall 2002. Each tract was set up and offered for sale both with and without the requirement to apply a specific set of timber-harvesting guidelines. Foresters who set up each tract recorded their time spent on a variety of timber sale preparation activities. On average, it took 57% longer to set up the timber sales when timber harvesting guidelines were incorporated into the sale design—an additional 20 min/ac over the time required to set up a timber sale when guidelines were not used. With an assumed opportunity cost of $20/h, the value of that additional timber sale set-up time averaged $6.80/ac. Several ideas are presented to reduce the additional time associated with incorporating guidelines into timber sales. They include both strategies applicable across all timber sales, as well as those that are site dependent.North. J. Appl. For. 22(3):175–180.

Timber Inventory of Large Acreages Using Stratified Two-Stage List Sampling

Abstract We present two-stage list sampling estimators and methodology that are useful in a forest inventory context. The advantages of this sampling method are discussed and illustrated with an inventory of a 3,419-acre timber tract. In this example, two-stage list sampling resulted in strata level and tract level estimates that were very close to estimates from a more intensive cruise that used twice as much field sampling effort. South. J. Appl. For. 29(3):152–157.

The Financial Cost to Forest Landowners Who Implement Forest Management Guidelines: An Empirical Assessment

Abstract To assess the financial costs that forest landowners incur when applying Minnesota's forest management guidelines, we conducted a study involving 27 public timber tracts auctioned in fall 2002. Each tract was offered in two ways–with and without the requirement to use guidelines–and loggers submitted paired bids. Stumpage bids averaged $2.66 per cord (10 percent) lower when guidelines were required. Across the study tracts, use of the guidelines decreased harvestable timber volume an average of 2.4 cords per acre. Taken together, the financial cost of guidelines to a forest landowner averaged $136 per acre, suggesting a minimum benefit value if their use is to be justified on financial grounds.

Shadow pricing diversity in U. S. national forests

Tobit estimation of the market value of timber sales in national forests of North Carolina demonstrates the important effect of stand diversity on the formulation of bid prices for mixed-species timber tracts. The hedonic model generates a shadow price for diversity according to changes in bid prices, an effective shift in the demand curve for auctioned tracts due to stand diversity attributes. This approach contrasts with traditional shadow price analyses that focus on the supply effects of environmental constraints. Results are corrected for the effects of bidder participation, market conditions, production costs, and other stand attributes. Econometric results demonstrate that stand heterogeneity is a highly significant factor influencing the market value of timber sales from national forests of the Appalachian region. Greater heterogeneity results in lower bid prices for timber sales, indicating a positive shadow price for maintenance of stand diversity.

Multiple Regression-Based Transactions Evidence Timber Appraisal for Minnesota's State Forests

Abstract A transactions evidence appraisal system for timber tracts administered by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources was developed and tested. A multiple linear regression model was developed from data on timber tracts sold by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources at auction in fiscal year 1991. This model was tested on fiscal year 1992 auction sales for which prices were known. Factors related to tract sale price included: (1) volume of different products on the site, (2) tract location, (3) distance from the tract to the nearest mill, (4) stocking level, and (5) seasonal harvesting restrictions. The regression model predicted sale prices nearly as well as the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources appraisal system and required substantially less information. North. J. Appl. For. 13(3):129-134.

Establishing Equitable Contract Rates for Timber Harvesting Using Deterministic Simulation

Abstract Deterministic simulation was used in a case study of a logging contractor working in south central British Columbia. A comparison of simulated and actual contract rates for five tracts showed substantial differences. Cashflow shortfalls and surpluses arising from the disparity betweensimulated costs and revenue generated from logging were appreciable. The findings suggest that deterministic simulation may provide a means for establishing equitable contract rates for harvesting individual tracts of timber. North. J. Appl. For. 10(1): 5-7.