Total Trading Volume Research Articles

Religious practices, fasting, and individuals’ trading behavior: a natural experiment

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of seasonality caused by fasting as a religious practice on trading activity. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an unbiased sample of daily trading by individuals and institutions on the Boursa Kuwait. The authors use panel data on trading activities and Tobit regression models to examine the effect of Muslims’ religious practice of fasting during the holy month of Ramadan on trading behavior. Findings The authors find that during the holy month of Ramadan, Muslims’ religious practice of fasting leads to a decline in the frequency of both overall stock market trading and the ratio of individual trading volume to total trading volume. The authors find a significant decrease in individual buy-side trading as a proportion of total trading volume and simultaneously a significant increase in institutional buy-side trading. Practical implications This study’s findings have important implications for the main players in stock markets of countries with a Muslim majority. Market-makers should be aware of the significant increase in the proportion of institutional buy-side trading volume to total trading volume to minimize the cost of trading with better-informed traders (adverse selection). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates individuals’ trading activity during Ramadan.

UKRAINE AND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IN COOPERATION WITH THE EU AFTER 2014 YEAR: MODELS AND IMPACTS

Abstract. The paper is devoted to solving the problem of co-integration between Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova in the context of foreign trade. The study of co-integration makes it possible to determine common trends in the development of foreign trade and, based on the analysis of the dynamics of the development of one country, to forecast the development of foreign trade in another country. The study of the main indicators of foreign trade was carried out: volumes of exports, imports, trade balance. The share of export-import operations with the EU in the total volume of foreign trade of Ukraine and Moldova was chosen as the studied indicator. The article proposes to consider cointegrations both between long-term trends, which characterize the trend of foreign trade development, and between short-term trends, which reflect the cyclical component. A co-integration research mechanism has been developed, which includes three blocks: a block of analysis of literary sources, a block of mathematical tools, and a block of applied use. The use of decomposition models, trend models, spectral analysis, orthogonality indicators and pairwise correlations is proposed as a mathematical toolkit. Using the Foster-Stewart method, an analysis of the presence of a trend in the variance and average was carried out. The above calculations showed the presence of a trend and cyclical component, which allowed the use of additive decomposition models. For the study of long-term trends, a linear trend model was chosen for both Moldova and Ukraine. A spectral analysis of the cyclic component was carried out, which made it possible to identify five main harmonics with a unique frequency and amplitude. The combination of these harmonics caused 95.8% and 90.4% of the cyclical component for Moldova and Ukraine, respectively. An analysis of cointegration between short-term and long-term trend functions was conducted, which revealed medium cointegration in the long-term trend and high cointegration in the short-term trend. The cointegration analysis of the indicator values proved a high degree of cointegration for both long-term and short-term trends.

Механізми тактичного управління торговельних підприємств на основі використання їх потенціалу в умовах розвитку е-бізнесу

The article is devoted to determining the essence and features of tactical management mechanisms of trading enterprises based on the use of their potential in the context of e-business development. It has been investigated that the electronic business market is currently developing, as evidenced by the increasing number of enterprises in the online sales market, the growth in sales volumes, and their share in the total trade volume. The advantages and disadvantages of trading enterprises transitioning to digital platforms are identified, along with the main threats that hinder effective development in this field, including war and logistics disruptions, the introduction of legislative restrictions, currency exchange rate instability, globalization of competition, etc. These threats necessitate optimizing strategies and appropriate tactical management mechanisms for trading and other business processes. It has been determined that the tactical mechanisms of trade activity in the electronic commerce market, based on the utilization of enterprise potential, are a set of measures and tools aimed at achieving the long-term development goals of the enterprise, as outlined in the strategy for market penetration and development in the e-business market, which involves the effective use of enterprise potential. These mechanisms ensure flexibility and efficiency in implementing strategic plans, contributing to adaptation to changes in the market environment and maintaining competitive advantages. It is noted that managing a trading company in the context of entering the e-commerce market requires an integrated approach that encompasses comprehensive marketing, operational, and financial mechanisms. The marketing mechanism includes brand promotion, assortment management, pricing, CRM, multichannel sales, and market analysis. Operational mechanisms involve optimizing the website, managing online advertising, implementing order management systems and efficient logistics, and using CRM tools to maintain customer relationships. Financial mechanisms focus on managing cash flows, optimizing costs, evaluating pricing strategies, and managing financial risks, ensuring the company’s stable growth and competitiveness. Keywords: trade enterprises, e-business, tactical management mechanisms, e-commerce, digital tools, trade enterprise strategy, enterprise potential, transfer potential, competitiveness.

Three-scenario forecast of retail e-commerce market volume changes in Kazakhstan until 2026

The new stage of global development is characterized by the movement of data across national borders, which is changing the nature and patterns of commerce. Despite the existence of e-commerce for many years, the current scale of these transactions is not commensurate with the previous ones. In addition, the emergence of marketplaces has fundamentally changed the rules of the game, causing a transformation of commerce processes. The purpose of the research is to compile a forecast model of changes in the volume of Kazakhstan's retail e-commerce market in the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. Forecast models were formed as a result of correlation and multiple regression analysis. Scenario forecasts were built taking into account changes in the volume of retail trade in the country based on current conditions of the economy functioning. The results of the study allowed to identify factors that positively and negatively affect the development of the retail e-commerce market in Kazakhstan. The first group includes the growth of the total volume of retail trade, the share of Internet users aged 16–74, the share of non-cash payments in the total structure of payments, and the second group includes the growth of cash payments. The scientific significance of the obtained results lies in the justification of the influence of a set of factors on the change in the volume of the retail e-commerce market. The obtained results can be used by authorized bodies to regulate the market under study by influencing individual factors of e-commerce development.

Impacts of analyst coverage initiation on market quality

ABSTRACT We examine whether the initiation of financial analysts’ coverage leads to improved stock-price informativeness and increased market liquidity using the difference-in-differences methodology. The average value of daily total trading volume is significantly higher after than before initiation. The increase in trading volume is higher in the KOSDAQ market than in the KOSPI market, irrespective of investor type. Nonetheless, this increased rate is observed to decline more rapidly over time in the KOSDAQ market. When an analyst initiates coverage on a stock, both price informativeness and market liquidity improve, with different markets driving each effect. The enhancement of price informativeness is significant in the KOSPI, whereas the increase in market liquidity is primarily driven by firms listed on the KOSDAQ.

A Study on Export Trade Efficiency and Potential of Korean Semiconductor Industry: Empirical Evidence from 72 Trade Export Countries

Purpose - The semiconductor industry is an integral part of the Korean economy. Trade competition in semiconductors, the core component of the fourth industrial revolution, has become increasingly fierce. In this context, this study aims to empirically analyze the current situation, international competitiveness, and challenges faced by Korea’s semiconductor export trade from the perspective of trade efficiency by using Korea’s semiconductor export trade data. Design/Methodology/Approach - Using a stochastic frontier gravity model, this study analyzes the data of 72 countries and regions that have been the main targets of Korea’s semiconductor exports for the past 22 years using an empirical approach to investigate the main factors affecting Korea’s semiconductor export trade, trade efficiency, and trade potential. Findings - From the division of semiconductor export market type, there are 13 saturated countries, and the trade volume accounts for 77.86% of the total trade volume of Korea’s semiconductor exports. There were 31, 16, and 12 expansion, development, and iceberg-type countries, respectively. In addition, the regression results show that Korea’s population size and the R&D expenditures of the countries with which it trades have a significantly positive effect on semiconductor exports. Research Implications - To date, no more systematic empirical research literature on the efficiency of Korean semiconductor export trade has been found, and this study fills the gap in the literature in this area through an empirical analysis approach. This study aims to provide a reference value in Korea’s semiconductor export trade.

Analysis of Road 3 Asia (R3A)’s Impacts on Border Trade of Thailand

Trade opening has become an important asset for economic development in many countries and an important engine of economic globalization (Wang, Shan-Li, et al, 2020). With continuous foster on the regional economic cooperation, countries with close proximity further promote the mobility and development of infrastructures and policies. Nevertheless, testing a trade integration model of bilateral trade is not sufficiently well estimated with the Bayesian approach to provide practical evidence of trade integration. Moreover, in identifying the factors determining trade integration, testing using the Bayesian gravity equation is essential. After performing a series of simulation experiments, a relationship between bilateral trade volume and simulated trade determinants was predicted for the trade model. The results of the estimated coefficients on GDP in Thailand and GDP of Yunnan province, China are positively significant predictors of the trade growth. The distance between the countries has a negatively significant estimation that implies barriers in trade. The model predicts trade integration, especially towards the trade on route R3A. The Bayesian approach of the gravity model gives robust estimates for determining the impact factor for the bilateral trade, including the fact that the elasticities of total trade volume with respect to distance, population, and the exchange rate of Thailand are negative while the GDP per capita are positively significant. Further, economic size, GDP per capita, and exchange rate of the destination, and population and area of Yunnan province are positively predicted by the model. The estimated parameters are directly the elasticities, in which increases in GDP is consistent with the higher trade volumes. Further, evidence of the gravity equation is used for understanding trade potential, and after some integrations, the estimation is applied for the real trade. The measures of bilateral trade resistance or costs associated with the trade flow has influenced the expanding of the bilateral trade in the model in the GMS economies. Finally, trade integration can be implemented with evidence and estimates of the gravity model. The Bayesian experiment for the estimation of the impacts of the trade integration on route R3A predicts an increase of GDP, population, exchange rate, and GDP per capita as predominant predictors in the Bayesian gravity model. Thus, the results revealed that economic size, bilateral distance, and GDP per capita has affected the plausible trade agreements for trade integration on route R3A.

Growth of GDP and Foreign Trade of Nepal: Trend analysis

It is clear that the total size of the economy and the total volume of trade have been increasing in Nepal. Both export trade and import trade contribute to economic growth, but the trade deficit increased rapidly over two decades. This paper investigates the trend analysis of foreign trade and GDP growth of Nepal during the last two decades. This paper has used annual statistical data from fiscal year 2001/02 to 2022/ 23 to analyze the trend of GDP growth and foreign trade of Nepal. Obviously, export and import trade play a crucial role in the economic growth of Nepal, but considering the fact of serious trade deficit, policy implications should be concentrated on exportoriented economic growth rather than import-oriented economic growth.

Analysis of Import and Export Trade Status in Guangdong Province

In 2023, the total volume of foreign trade in Guangdong Province is outstanding, and ranks first in the country for many consecutive years. As the largest province of foreign trade in the country, Guangdong should continue to play a good role in the ballast of foreign trade in the country. Based on the analysis of the current situation of foreign trade in Guangdong Province, this paper finds that the overall development of foreign trade is good, but there are factors such as weak growth, lack of independent innovation ability and external environment in the development process. Based on this, this paper puts forward suggestions from the aspects of market development, industrial upgrading and trade facilitation reform, in order to provide reference for the development of foreign trade in Guangdong Province.

Asymmetric information correlation in financial markets

This paper investigates a market model in which the exclusive information of the insider is correlated with the information of outsiders. Our findings suggest that increasing the degree of information correlation can improve market quality, enhancing market liquidity, market efficiency, and total trading volume. Additionally, the degree of information correlation increases the profits of outsiders and noise traders but reducing the profit of the insider. These results indicate that higher degree of information correlation is beneficial to market health, especially during period of economic crisis. Therefore, we suggest that the government and regulatory institutions expand the scope of information disclosure and ensure the accuracy of information disclosed. Furthermore, the study reveals that positive correlation leads to increased trading intensity for outsiders and decreased trading intensity for the insider. In contrast, negative correlation results in more complex changes in trading intensity for both groups due to belief inconsistency and intricate psychological reactions of traders to variations in information. Additionally, we provide an empirical analysis based on data from the Chinese market to support our findings.

Impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: Empirical insights from Nepal

This study aims to examine the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on Nepal’s long-term economic growth. It uses secondary data from 1989/90 to 2021/22 collected from various economic surveys of the Ministry of Finance of Nepal. Descriptive and explanatory research designs are used in this study. The trace, max-eigen tests, and fully modified least square methods search the long-run co-integration and impact between response and predictor variables. Trace and max-eigen tests consistently point toward the long-run co-integration between dependent (gross domestic product) and independent (import, export, total trade, and foreign direct investment) variables. Exports and imports are found to be negative and statistically significant to explain Nepal’s economic growth. One unit increase in exports results in a 0.748 unit decrease in Nepal’s economic growth. Similarly, total trade volume and foreign direct investment positively impact economic growth. Each unit increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.0036 unit increase in GDP in Nepal. Foreign trade has a multiplier effect on Nepal’s GDP growth. The 76.35 percent variation in economic growth depends upon total foreign trade volume, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. To promote sustainable economic growth, policymakers should prioritize policies encouraging increased total foreign trade and foreign direct investment while carefully managing the potential negative impact of excessive reliance on import dynamics.

Does artificial intelligence promote energy transition and curb carbon emissions? The role of trade openness

A more comprehensive understanding of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on energy transition and carbon emissions could help to use AI to achieve carbon neutrality. To this end, the STIRPAT approach, the mediation effect technique and the panel threshold technique are developed using the panel data in 69 countries from 1993 to 2019. The results show that: (i) AI promote energy transition and carbon emission reduction, and trade openness (indicated by imports, exports and total trade volume) has the mediating effect. (ii) There is a single-threshold of trade openness in the impact of AI on carbon emissions. When trade openness is below the threshold, AI has an insignificant impact on carbon emissions; when trade openness crosses the threshold, AI has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions. There is a double-threshold of trade openness in the impact of AI on energy transition. When trade openness is lower than the first threshold, the impact of AI on energy transition is not significant; When trade openness is higher than the second threshold, the positive impact of AI on energy transition is increased. (iii) When considering the heterogeneity of income levels and AI levels, the trade threshold for achieving carbon emission reductions in the high-income group is lower than that of the global group, and the trade threshold for achieving carbon emission reductions in the low-AI level group is higher than that of the global group. While this study unequivocally delineates the affirmative role of artificial intelligence in carbon emission reduction and energy transformation, particularly in the context of trade openness, we concurrently acknowledge that this viewpoint is not devoid of contention. Amidst the rapid advancement of technology and the landscape of open trade, we discern the presence of counterarguments. The efficacy of artificial intelligence is susceptible to the influence of multifaceted factors. It is imperative to consider associated factors, such as the significant energy consumption required for storing and cooling data centers and servers. The study's conclusions aid policymakers in devising nuanced emission reduction policies tailored to specific needs.

Big Data Analysis and Decision Making Optimization in International Relations Supported by Constructivist Theory

Abstract With the peaceful end of the Cold War and the deepening development of economic globalization, the traditional international relations theory is in trouble, and constructivism comes into being amidst people’s reflections on neorealism and neoliberalism. This paper proposes an optimization method for decision-making in international relations, guided by the constructivist international relations theory system. Big data is used to analyze the decision-making opinions of experts in international relations processing and to fuse complex relationships, and then the dual-consensus feedback mechanism is used to calculate the comprehensive score of each international relations decision-making scheme to obtain the optimal decision-making scheme in international relations. The analysis finds that the solution obtained using the method proposed in this paper is better than the solution obtained using the JIA method and can provide the optimal decision-making solution for processing international relations. In the simulation case, after optimizing its decision-making in international relations, country T actively engages in economic and trade exchanges with country M and jointly establishes several economic cooperation frameworks. The export trade volume of country T to country M increased by about three times from 2016 to 2023, and the total global trade volume of country T doubled by nearly five times (481.97%). The paper’s impact can be seen in the establishment of relatively stable international relations and the realization of the practice of friendly interaction between state subjects.

Stock market liquidity and volatility on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX)

Globally, the importance of stock markets in facilitating the smooth exchange of financial assets cannot be overemphasized. The efficiency of stock markets across the globe including Nigeria is largely dependent on the adequacy of stock market liquidity. However, studies have shown that the Nigerian stock market is inadequately liquid which has led to inefficient stock trading with high cost of trading. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of stock market liquidity on stock volatility on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). The study used an ex post facto research design with a sample of top 30 most capitalized and liquid companies accounting for over 90% total market capitalization and trading volume was purposively selected for the study. Secondary monthly data spanning January 2014 to December 2021 were obtained from Security and Exchange Commission Statistical Bulletin while that of exchange rate and inflation were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The GARCH (1,1) model was employed as the estimating techniques. The result of the mean equation shows that stock market liquidity (β = 759.64, p-value = 0.0000) has a significant positive impact on volatility. Also, macroeconomic factors (β = 0.0217, p-value = 0.0000) has a significant positive impact on volatility. The variance equation reveals that current conditional volatility of stock market liquidity and volatility is influenced by their previous shocks and past volatility conditions (ai + βj = 0.9970). The study also found evidence of volatility clustering (GARCH = 1.0056) on the NGX. Therefore, the study recommended that investors should diversify their portfolios by combining highly liquid and less liquid stocks to balance the risk across different liquidity profiles, while regulators and policymakers should implement policies that incentivize market makers to provide liquidity by offering rewards and reducing regulatory barriers.

Türkiye ile Afrika Arasındakı Dış Ticaretin Analizi

While enhancing our economic relations with African countries was positioned as a target within Türkiye's vision, especially after the Cold War, this could only come true in the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, there have been significant developments in the volume of trade. Although Türkiye had a trade deficit with Africa from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, due to stagnation and the impacts of various crises, it became a surplus party in the subsequent period. The trade with Africa is primarily with North African countries due to geographical proximity and historical ties. While Africa's share in Türkiye's total foreign trade volume has been gradually increasing, it remains significantly lower compared to Asia and Europe. Relations between the continent and Türkiye haven't grown stronger yet, largely because the majority of African countries were former colonies. In African countries, which were primarily former colonies of European nations, customs duties and non-tariff barriers are applied to Non-european countries. On the other hand, Türkiye's geographical proximity to Africa offers a significant opportunity to meet the agricultural and food needs of African countries. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze Türkiye's trade with the African continent and to reveal the opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses this trade offers for both actors. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations to enhance these relations in this framework.

THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN TRADE

The current empirical literature shows that logistics plays a vital role in increasing the total volume of international trade. However, there is scarce literature on the impact of logistics performance on global value chain trade. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics performance on global value chain trade, measured by the value-added exports. The empirical specification of this paper is based on the structural gravity model of international trade. The analysis is based on biennial panel data on bilateral trade flows for the EU-15, CEE, and the Western Balkans and covers the period from 2010 to 2018. The model is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The results show that logistics performance appears to have significant positive effects on global value chain trade and that the logistics performance of the partner country plays a more critical role than the logistics performance of the reporting country. Institutional quality matters greatly for global value chain trade. Individual differences in the observed variables were found between selected groups of countries. The need to improve logistics performance and invest in knowledge and technology will help countries improve in value chains, along with adequate institutional support.

Foreign investors and stealth trading: An examination of price movements in developing markets

We investigate whether foreign investors have better information than domestic investors. We are motivated by (1) the controversy over the performance of foreign versus domestic investors and (2) market dynamics that require investors to adapt constantly. Using 123 positive and 81 negative news items from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), we find that foreign investors account for larger price movements before news announcements, suggesting that foreign investors tend to have better information than domestic investors. The result is robust, even after including the total trading volume, total number of transactions, and trading size. Further investigation reveals that foreign investors' small trades account for the largest price movements. Initiated trades account for larger price movements. Domestic investors have more foreign advantages than foreign investors. We also find that the foreign advantage disappears during non-event periods. Our results contrast with previous findings showing that domestic investors have better information than foreign investors. Our findings suggest that investor behavior is dynamic; investors adjust to their environment, which may lead to changes in their performance.

An Evaluation of the Trade Outcomes between Taiwan and Malaysia under the New Southbound Policy (NSP)

Upon assuming office in 2016, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration revitalized the Southbound Policy (SP), rebranding it as the New Southbound Policy (NSP). While both the SP and NSP share a common objective — to reduce Taiwan’s heavy reliance on the Chinese market — the NSP, unlike its predecessor, places a dual emphasis on enhancing economic ties and concurrently spreading Taiwan’s soft power across the designated markets. Despite being one of the target markets under the NSP, Malaysia did not consistently experience a surge in the proportion of Taiwan’s total trade volume as a result of the policy. This paper aims to assess the performance of Taiwan-Malaysia trades in the context of NSP initiatives and elucidate how the soft power that Taiwan has implemented in Malaysia since the 1950s contributed to such an outcome. The trading outcomes between Taiwan and Malaysia indicate that Taiwan did not receive substantial support from the entities it targeted with its soft power initiatives. This suggests that the China complex within the Chinese ethnic population in Malaysia is challenging to uproot due to their historical and cultural ties with China. Keywords: New Southbound Policy, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, soft power

Performance evaluation of China's agricultural water rights markets (2002–2020)

Abstract The water rights market has been promoted in China since 2000. The lack of data and suitable evaluation methods impeded efforts to evaluate the market performance systematically. This research examines the characteristics, performance, and variation of China's agricultural water rights market (AWRM) on the basis of data from the field investigation, China Water Exchange, academic literature, and policy documents. We construct a comprehensive evaluation index system from the aspects of efficiency, fairness, and sustainability and quantitatively evaluate the performance of seven typical agricultural water markets in China. From 2002 to 2020, there were 1,752 cases of agricultural water transactions in China, with a total trading volume of 10.09 million m3. The market scale is increasing and the development of AWRM can be divided into three stages. Most agricultural water rights transactions happened in the west and the north. The average performance of typical AWRMs was poor. Typical water markets had the highest score for fairness and the lowest score for sustainability. Water markets in the humid areas performed the best, whereas the markets in the higher transaction level performed better. Water markets in areas with higher economic development had better performance.

Management of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises in the context of stabilization of the national economy

The study is devoted to assessing the consequences of the war in Ukraine for the world trade in agricultural products and substantiating the peculiarities of managing the foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises of the country in the military and post-war periods in the context of stabilizing the national economy. Based on the analysis, the author identifies the critical components of the effects of the war in Ukraine on world agricultural trade, which are geographically specific and contextual. The impact of the aggressor country's actions on the territory of Ukraine on international trade and economic relations is determined. The spatial and commodity structure of Ukraine's trade integration relations in agricultural production in the pre-war and war periods is considered and studied. It is noted that despite Ukraine's small share in the total volume of world trade and production, the country's integration into international agricultural markets is quite significant. It is proved that the domestic agricultural sector is a powerful exporter of agricultural products for several items, including staple foods. Ukraine retained its place among the world's five most prominent exporters of agricultural products in 2022. The main products of domestic agricultural exports have traditionally been grains and oilseeds, various oils, residues of the food and processing industry, meat, and offal. It is substantiated that for stabilizing the national economy, it is necessary to modernize all sectors of the Ukrainian economy, including agriculture. It is necessary not only to rebuild them to pre-war levels but also to profoundly transform the country at all levels (macro, meso, and micro), from business models and technologies, infrastructure, and logistics to a radical overhaul of institutions. The main strategic goal was to maintain Ukraine's full membership in the EU. Keywords: Agri-food market, agricultural products, foreign economic activity management, agricultural enterprises, stabilization of the national economy, sustainable development paradigm, international trade, war in Ukraine, development.