Total Summer Precipitation Research Articles

Characteristics of Water Vapor Transport for Extreme Summer Precipitation in the Eastern Southwest China and Its Impact Mechanism

To improve understanding of the characteristics of extreme summer rainfall and its water vapor transport in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC), this study analyzed data on daily precipitation from 118 meteorological stations in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020, as well as daily reanalysis data from ERA5 and daily reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The study employed polynomial fitting, correlation, regression, clustering, and mixed single-particle Lagrangian trajectory (HYSPLITv5.0) modeling methods to simulate extreme summer precipitation and its water vapor transport characteristics in the ESWC and its possible formation mechanism. The results show that: (1) The contribution rate of extreme precipitation in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020 varied significantly on the interannual time scale. When the number of extreme precipitation days is high (low), the contribution rate of extreme precipitation is also high (low), while the contribution rate of general precipitation (the percentage of the sum of general precipitation to the total summer precipitation of that year) is often low (high). (2) When extreme precipitation occurs in the ESWC, compared with general precipitation, the high-level potential vortices are stronger, and the cold air from higher latitude is more likely to move southward. Meanwhile, the amount of water vapor input to the region is significantly larger than that of general precipitation. (3) There are four channels of water vapor sources in the ESWC during the period of extreme precipitation: the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the western Pacific, and the northwest. The contribution of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal is the highest. The number of extreme summer precipitation days in the ESWC is significantly negatively correlated with the water vapor budget of the eastern boundary and positively correlated with Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index in the previous winter. (4) When the winter SST is high in the IOBW mode, it can cause the western Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high to be stronger and shifted southward in summer, resulting in an increase in the number of extreme precipitation days in the ESWC.

Interdecadal variation and possible causes of summer extreme precipitation over northern Xinjiang province, northwestern China

Using daily precipitation data from 25 stations, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and 12 climate indices for boreal summers from 1963 to 2017, we investigate the interdecadal variation and causes of extreme precipitation in northern Xinjiang Province (NXJ), northwestern China. The summer frequency of daily precipitation extremes (DPEs), summer precipitation from DPEs, and contribution of precipitation from DPEs to total summer precipitation have increased significantly since the early 1990s, and this increase in extreme precipitation is more intense at stations in the eastern part of NXJ. Comparing the periods 1963–1988 and 1992–2017, the anomalous circulation over the Mongolian Plateau changed from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic, and the center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation over Central Asia shifted northward from the Iranian Plateau to the Aral Sea. These changes in anomalous circulation pattern induced changes in the paths of water vapor transport and the distribution of moisture convergence, which explain well the interdecadal increase in extreme precipitation and its spatial variability. Further analysis confirms evident impacts of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and Scandinavia teleconnection pattern on the development of anomalous circulation related to the interdecadal increase in extreme precipitation. A positive IOBM favors the northward transport of moisture from the northern Indian Ocean to Xinjiang Province and the development of anomalous cyclonic circulation over Central Asia in the middle and upper troposphere. The negative phase of the Scandinavia pattern, which has prevailed since the late 1970s, and the enhanced out of phase connection between the anomalous circulation over Scandinavia Peninsula and the West Siberia during 1992–2017 favors the development of anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation over the Mongolian Plateau.

Changes in snow and ice surface albedo and its impact on snow and ice area in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA

ABSTRACT Glacial and snow melt in the Wind River Range, Wyoming feed headwaters for the Missouri and Colorado River Systems, covering much of the western United States. Identifying the factors that have the greatest impact on snow and ice melt is important to managing the water resources in this region. This study examined snow and ice albedo, summer temperature and precipitation, and winter precipitation as potential significant factors related to snow and ice area changes. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze changes in surface albedo on snow and ice over time (1985 to 2016) as derived from Landsat imagery among 5 basins in the Wind River Range. As well, a stepwise regression analysis was utilized in determining the significance of albedo along with summer mean temperature, total summer precipitation, and total winter precipitation in predicting snow and ice area. Among all the variables, albedo was found to have the greatest significance in relation to snow and ice area change. The significance of albedo on snow and ice melting in the Wind River Range is likely due to a positive feedback effect coupled with possible effects from annual increases in particulates from forest fires and fossil fuel production.

Combining deep sequencing and conventional molecular approaches reveals broad diversity and distribution of fleas and Bartonella in rodents and shrews from Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems

BackgroundBartonella are intracellular bacteria that are transmitted via animal scratches, bites and hematophagous arthropods. Rodents and their associated fleas play a key role in the maintenance of Bartonella worldwide, with > 22 species identified in rodent hosts. No studies have addressed the occurrence and diversity of Bartonella species and vectors for small mammals in Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems, which are increasingly impacted by invasive species and climate change.MethodsIn this study, we characterized the diversity of rodent fleas using conventional PCR targeting the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase II gene (COII) and Bartonella species in rodents and shrews (n = 505) from northern Canada using conventional PCR targeting the ITS (intergenic transcribed spacer) region and gltA (citrate synthase) gene. Metagenomic sequencing of a portion of the gltA gene was completed on a subset of 42 rodents and four rodent flea pools.ResultsYear, total summer precipitation the year prior to sampling, average minimum spring temperature and small mammal species were significant factors in predicting Bartonella positivity. Occurrence based on the ITS region was more than double that of the gltA gene and was 34% (n = 349) in northern red-backed voles, 35% (n = 20) in meadow voles, 37% (n = 68) in deer mice and 31% (n = 59) in shrews. Six species of Bartonella were identified with the ITS region, including B. grahamii, B. elizabethae, B. washoensis, Candidatus B. rudakovii, B. doshiae, B. vinsonii subsp. berkhoffii and subsp. arupensis. In addition, 47% (n = 49/105) of ITS amplicons had < 97% identity to sequences in GenBank, possibly due to a limited reference library or previously unreported species. An additional Bartonella species (B. heixiaziensis) was detected during metagenomic sequencing of the gltA gene in 6/11 rodents that had ITS sequences with < 97% identity in GenBank, highlighting that a limited reference library for the ITS marker likely accounted for low sequence similarity in our specimens. In addition, one flea pool from a northern red-backed vole contained multiple species (B. grahamii and B. heixiaziensis).ConclusionOur study calls attention to the usefulness of a combined approach to determine the occurrence and diversity of Bartonella communities in hosts and vectors.Graphical

Deciphering China's Complex Pattern of Summer Precipitation Trends

AbstractObservations show that summer precipitation in China has undergone pronounced changes, resulting in an enigmatic “north‐south drying‐wetting” pattern in eastern China that is of great concern for socio‐economic development. Scientific consensus on the mechanisms that are responsible for this pattern of change has not yet been achieved. We show that this complex pattern of summer total precipitation trends observed in China since the 1960s is overwhelmingly the result of changes in daily precipitation frequency, rather than being the result of changes in precipitation intensity or the frequency of synoptic circulation patterns favorable to precipitation. Changes in precipitation intensity, which are very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, contribute a relatively homogeneous wetting tendency across the country while changes due to synoptic circulation change are weak. The changes in daily precipitation frequency that drive the observed patterns of change may be due to aerosols, but improved process understanding will be required to resolve that question and enable reliable projections of regional scale precipitation change in China and elsewhere.

Summer Precipitation Extremes over the Yellow River Loop Valley and Its link to European Blocking

Characteristics of extreme precipitation over Yellow River Loop Valley (YRLV) and links to European blocking are investigated in this study. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme precipitation shows that it contributes more than 30% of the total summer precipitation in the YRLV and is characterized by a strong and short period of local rainfall. Most of the extreme rains in the YRLV occur in July and August. Two typical circulation patterns were identified using a k-means clustering method. The extreme precipitation results from the combined actions of intensified high pressure over northeast China (NECH) and the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The intensified southerly flow of the amplified NECH strengthens the water vapor transport induced by the westward extension of the WPSH from the northwest Pacific or Bay of Bengal into the YRLV. The NECH is amplified by the wave energy propagating from European blocking via the Silk Road pattern (SRP). This is the subseasonal cause of extreme precipitation over the YRLV. The composited July and August mean 500 hPa geopotential anomaly pattern for extreme precipitation years shows a high-pressure anomaly over the European continent and a negative phase of the SRP. The former provides a background for the occurrence of European blocking, and the latter explains the preexistence of the NECH and provides a linkage between the activity of European blocking and the subseasonal evolution of the NECH. Thus, the interannual variation in the extreme precipitation over the YRLV is mainly reflected by the phase of the SRP and the stationary waves over Europe.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Satellite-Derived Vegetation Phenological Parameters in Northeast China

Vegetation phenology does not only serve as a key index of terrestrial ecosystem response to worldwide climate change but also has a major influence on plant productivity and the carbon cycle. In the current research, the change of vegetation phenological parameters was studied and the impact exerted by climate change on phenological phases in northeast China for 1982–2014 was explored using the latest edition of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS NDVI3g) dataset. The results showed that the start of the growing season (SOS) slightly advanced, the end of the growing season (EOS) showed a significant delay, and the length of the growing season (LOS) exhibited a significant prolonging at the regional scale. At the different vegetation types scale, there existed diverse responses of vegetation phenological phases to climate change for forest, grassland, and cultivated land. Significant decreasing trends in the SOS occupied 19.1% of the entire research area, whereas pixels with significantly increasing trends in the SOS accounted for 13.1%. The EOS was delayed in most of the study region (approximately 72.1%). As the result of the variations of SOS and EOS, the LOS was obviously enhanced (p &lt; 0.05) in 29.7% of the research area. According to the correlation of vegetation phenology with climate factors, the SOS had a significant negative relationship with the average temperature in springtime, while the EOS was notably negatively connected to summer total precipitation at the regional scale. At the pixel scale, the correlation of phenological parameters with climate variables showed strong spatial heterogeneities. This study contributes to the comprehension of the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change.

The Role of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau Region

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have been identified as an important source of precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. However, the characteristics and structure of MCS‐induced precipitation are not well understood in this location. Infrared (IR) satellite imagery has been used for MCS tracking, but cirrus clouds or cold surfaces can lead to false MCS classification over mountain regions. Here, we combine brightness temperatures from IR imagery with satellite precipitation estimates from GPM IMERG and track MCSs over the TP, at the boundary of the TP (TPB), and in the surrounding lower‐elevation plains (LE), between 2000 and 2019. In most parts of LE and TPB, MCSs produced 50%–80% of the total summer precipitation (60%–90% of summer heavy precipitation), whereas MCSs over the TP account for below 10% of the total summer precipitation (10%–30% of summer heavy precipitation). Our results also show that MCSs that produce the largest amounts of heavy precipitation are characterized by longevity and large extents rather than by high intensities. These are mainly located in the populous areas south and east of the TP. A tracking of meso‐β convective systems over the TP shows that small‐scale convection makes a large contribution to total and heavy precipitation. This suggests that more localized convective systems are important for the regional water cycle over the higher terrain and highlights the importance of convective‐scale modeling to improve our understanding of precipitation dynamics in the TP region.

Interannual variabilities of the summer and winter extreme daily precipitation in the Southeastern United States

This study focuses on investigating how climate variabilities exhibited in summer and winter precipitation in the Southern United States (SEUS) are possibly modulated by large scale atmospheric activities, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cyclonic activities measured in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index. A stringent criterion was applied to the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset to identify a total of 99gauge stations in the SEUS where data length is at least 60 years. Seasonal precipitation is normalized by annual total precipitation amount to obtain the season ratio. Two approaches, including the block maximum and peaks-over-threshold methods, were used to develop time series of extreme precipitations in the summer (June-October) and winter (December-February) seasons. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used to fit a probability density function to the 1-day maximum precipitation time series. Daily cumulative anomaly curves were developed to investigate potential changes in the onset and demise of rainy seasons for the region to the south of 30-degree latitude. Analyses found that summer ratios are over 55% for most stations in Florida and in the range of 45%-55% for most stations along the east coast. Summer total precipitation is significantly correlated with ACE for only 17.2% of the stations, while winter total is significantly correlated with Nino 3.4 for 46.5% of the stations. Similarly, the effect of ACE on the frequency and amount of extreme daily precipitation over the 95th threshold in the summer season is less strong compared to the effect of ENSO on winter extreme precipitation. Summer extreme precipitation is found to be modulated by geographic terrain as well as by local atmospheric activities. Analyses of the onset and demise of rainy season in Florida found no trend in the onset or demise dates between the years 1932 and 2003, although substantial interannual variability was observed.

Assessing the performance and accuracy of invasive plant habitat suitability models in detecting new observations in Wisconsin

AbstractLand managers require tools that improve understanding of suitable habitat for invasive plants and that can be incorporated into survey efforts to improve efficiency. Habitat suitability models (HSMs) contain attributes that can meet these requirements, but it is not known how well they perform, as they are rarely field-tested for accuracy. We developed ensemble HSMs in the state of Wisconsin for 15 species using five algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized linear models, multivariate regression splines, MaxEnt, and random forests), evaluated performance, determined variables that drive suitability, and tested accuracy. All models had good model performance during the development phase (Area Under the Curve [AUC] &gt; 0.7 and True Skills Statistic [TSS] &gt; 0.4). While variable importance and directionality was species specific, the most important predictor variables across all of the species’ models were mean winter minimum temperatures, total summer precipitation, and tree canopy cover. Post model development, we obtained 5,005 new occurrence records from community science observations for all 15 focal species to test the models’ abilities to accurately predict results. Using a correct classification rate of 80%, just 8 of the 15 species correctly predicted suitable habitat (α ≤ 0.05). Exploratory analyses found the number of reporters of these new data and the total number of new occurrences reported per species contributed to increasing correct classification. Results suggest that while some models perform well on evaluation metrics, relying on these metrics alone is not sufficient and can lead to errors when utilized for surveying. We recommend any model should be tested for accuracy in the field before use to avoid this potential issue.

Understanding the Mechanisms of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events in Xinjiang of Arid Northwest China

AbstractAs one of the aridest regions in the mid‐latitudes, arid Northwest China (ANC) has scarce water resources year‐round, its annual total precipitation is mainly contributed by summer extreme precipitation events, which may also cause disastrous flash floods. However, the physical mechanism and climatic features of extreme precipitation events in ANC are not fully understood and warrant in‐depth investigations. Taking Xinjiang as an example, this study investigates the underlying mechanisms and long‐term trend of extreme precipitation events in ANC during 1961–2019 using observational and reanalysis data sets. Results suggest that summer extreme precipitation events in ANC are characterized by a zonal wave pattern with the deepening of the western Siberian trough, central Asian high, and Mongolian high. Under the effects of the zonal wave pattern, the westerly and the easterly airflows anomalously intensify and converge in ANC, transporting a large amount of water vapor from the Arctic Ocean, the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, the Arabian Sea, and eastern China to ANC. Meanwhile, a deep anomalous cyclone center induced by the deep wave pattern appears over ANC, thus providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in ANC. Over the long‐term period, total summer precipitation and the frequency of extreme precipitation events in ANC show significant increasing trends, indicating that summer climate in ANC is becoming more humid, and extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. These findings provide scientific insights for understanding the formation mechanism of summer extreme precipitation events and mitigating the corresponding disasters in arid regions.

Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

Changing summer precipitation variability in the Alpine region: on the role of scale dependent atmospheric drivers

Summer precipitation totals in the Alpine Region do not exhibit a systematic trend over the last 120 years. However, we find significant low frequency periodicity of interannual variability which occurs in synchronization with a dominant two-phase state of the atmospheric circulation over the Alps. Enhanced meridional flow increases precipitation variability through positive soil moisture precipitation feedbacks on the regional scale, whereas enhanced zonal flow results in less variability through constant moisture flow from the Atlantic and suppressed feedbacks with the land surface. The dominant state of the atmospheric circulation over the Alps in these periods appears to be steered by zonal sea surface temperature gradients in the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The strength and the location of the westerlies in the mid-latitude Atlantic play an important role in the physical mechanisms linking atmosphere and oceanic temperature gradients and the meridional/zonal circulation characteristics.

Nighttime warming alleviates the incidence of juniper forest growth decline on the Tibetan Plateau

Recent warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is approximately twice the global-mean surface temperature increase and poses a threat to the healthy growth of forests. Although many studies have focused on whether recent climate warming has caused forest growth decline on the TP, it remains unclear how asymmetric warming, that is faster increasing nighttime temperature than daytime, impacts forest growth decline. We explored this question by using a ring-width index series from 1489 juniper trees (Juniperus prezwalskii and J. tibetica) at 50 sites on the TP. We calculated the percentage of trees with growth decline (PTD) to reconstruct historical forest growth decline and employed a piecewise structural equation meta-model (pSEM) and linear mixed model (LMM) to explore influencing factors. We found that the PTD has decreased since the late 19th century, with an abrupt decreasing trend since the 1980s. Results of the pSEM show that winter minimum temperature has a stronger indirect negative effect on the variation in PTD (β = −0.24, p < 0.05) compared to that of the weak indirect positive effect of summer maximum temperature (β = 0.16, p < 0.05). The results of LMM show that the variation in PTD is directly negatively (p < 0.001) affected by both winter minimum temperature and summer total precipitation, but the former has a greater independent contribution than the latter (with 17.7% vs 2.5% of variances independently explained, respectively). These results suggest that increased winter minimum temperature substantially mitigates the growth decline in juniper forests on the TP. As the minimum temperature generally occurs at night, we conclude that the asymmetric increase in nighttime temperature has decreased the incidence of juniper forest growth decline on the TP under climate warming. This alleviating effect of nighttime warming is likely due to reduced low-temperature constraints and reduced damage to tree growth.

Forced Decadal Changes in Summer Precipitation Characteristics over China: The Roles of Greenhouse Gases and Anthropogenic Aerosols

We investigated the decadal changes in the different types of summer mean precipitation over China across the mid-1990s based on observational datasets. The spatial variations in the observed decadal changes were estimated by comparing the present day (PD) time period of 1994–2011 with an earlier period of 1964–1981. The summer total precipitation increased in southern China and decreased in northern China from the early period to the PD. The increases of precipitation in southern China were due to increases in the frequency of heavy and moderate rainfall, whereas the decreases over northern China were mainly due to decreases in the frequency of moderate and light rainfall. Based on a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a multilevel mixed-layer ocean model, we found that the increase of precipitation frequency forced by greenhouse gases is the main reason of increasing precipitation over southern and northeastern China, while the decrease of frequency caused by anthropogenic aerosol (AA) induces the decreasing precipitation over northern China. The water vapor flux convergence and water vapor flux strengthen in southern China and northeastern China by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This distribution is also conducive to precipitation in most of southern China and northeastern China. Under the control of weakened southwesterly winds and 850-hPa divergence, precipitation decreases over northern and southwestern China by AA.

Tracing Real-Time Transnational Hydrologic Sensitivity and Crop Irrigation in the Upper Rhine Area over the Exceptional Drought Episode 2018–2020 Using Open Source Sentinel-2 Data

Climate and regional land-use and landcover change (LUCC) impact the ecosystem of the Upper Rhine Area (URA) and transform large parts of the landscape into strongly irrigated agricultural cropland. The increase of long-term drought periods and the trend towards low summer precipitation totals trigger an increase in groundwater scarcity and amplify the negative effects of extensive irrigation purposes and freshwater consumption in a hydrologically sensitive region in Central Europe. This article presents qualitative transnational open source remote sensing temporal series of vegetation indices (NDVI) and groundwater level development to tracing near real-time vegetation change and socio-ecological feedbacks during periods of climate extremes in the Upper Rhine Area (2018–2020). Increased freshwater consumption caused a dramatic drop in groundwater availability, which eventually led to a strong degradation of the vegetation canopy and caused governmental regulations in July 2020. Assessing vegetation growth behavior and linking groundwater reactions in the URA through open source satellite data contributes to a rapidly accessible understanding of the ecosystem’s feedbacks on the local to the transnational scale and further enables risk management and eco-political regulations in current and future decision-making processes.

Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?

Abstract. Based on three drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index) reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental records, the summers of 1531–1540 were identified as the driest summer decade during the 1501–2015 period in the Czech Lands. Based on documentary data, extended from the Czech scale to central Europe, dry patterns of various intensities (represented, for example, by dry spells, low numbers of precipitation days, very low rivers, and drying-out of water sources) occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly 1540, broken by wetter or normal patterns in 1531, 1533, 1537, and 1539. Information relevant to summer droughts extracted from documentary data in central Europe was confirmed in summer precipitation totals from a multi-proxy reconstruction for Europe by Pauling et al. (2006) and further by self-calibrated summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction from tree ring widths in Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) by Cook et al. (2015). The summer patterns described are consistent with the distribution of sea level pressure deviations from a modern reference period. Summer droughts were responsible for numerous negative impacts, such as bad harvests of certain crops, reduction and lack of water sources, and frequent forest fires, while in the wetter summers central Europe was affected by floods. However, there are no indications of severe impacts of a multi-country or multi-year effect. Reconstructions based on documentary data indicate that the summers of 1531–1540 constitute the driest summer decade in central Europe for the past five centuries between 1501 and 2010 CE.

Factors controlling long-term carbon dioxide exchange between a Douglas-fir stand and the atmosphere identified using an artificial neural network approach

It is critical to have long-term carbon dioxide (CO2) flux observations in forest ecosystems to understand how changing climate can affect forest carbon (C) stocks and CO2 exchange between forests and the atmosphere. In this study, fifteen years (2002–2016) of continuous eddy-covariance flux and climate measurements in an intermediate-aged Douglas-fir stand on the east coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, were analyzed. First, the eddy covariance-measured CO2 fluxes were partitioned into gross primary production and ecosystem respiration using two artificial neural networks. Second, the responses of net ecosystem production, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration to interannual climate variability, including five El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, were determined. Three hyper-parameters (number of layers, hidden units, and batch size) of each artificial neural network were set by Bayesian optimization using sequential model-based optimization while the remaining hyper-parameters were taken from the literature. The first artificial neural network was fitted using only nighttime CO2 flux data and applied to estimate nighttime and daytime ecosystem respiration values, and the second one was used to gap-fill gross primary production values. In addition, a predictor analysis was done to investigate the most influential predictors (i.e., environmental variables) within seasons and years. When applied to half-hourly data, the ecosystem respiration model had an R2 of 0.43, whereas the gross primary production model had an R2 of 0.80. The stand was a moderate C sink (average net ecosystem production of 118 ± 404 g C m−2 year−1) during the entire study period, except for the years 2002–2006 when the stand was a moderate C source. The mean annual values of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were 1649 ± 157 g C m−2 year−1 and 1531 ± 410 g C m−2 year−1, respectively. Our analysis showed that soil temperature was the most important predictor for the ecosystem respiration model, and photosynthetically active irradiance was the most important predictor for the gross primary production model. However, during dry periods in late summer, soil moisture became the most important predictor. Interannual variability of net ecosystem production was only slightly affected by annual total precipitation, mean soil temperature and mean air temperature. Instead, it depended on spring mean air temperature (start of the growing season), summer total precipitation (indicative of water deficiency) and mean summer air temperature. El Niño and La Niña events generally resulted in lower and higher annual net ecosystem production, respectively.

Climatology of atmospheric rivers in the Asian monsoon region

AbstractThe climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their roles on precipitation extremes have been extensively researched over western North America and Europe, yet ARs in Asia, especially for those affecting the densely populated countries including Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand and Vietnam are not adequately understood. Here, the climatological characteristics of landfalling ARs, including their frequency and intensity, in the Asian monsoon region for the period 1979–2017 are investigated using the ECMWF ERA‐Interim reanalysis dataset. The inter‐annual variability of landfalling ARs associated with the combination of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is presented. The results suggest frequent AR activities over southern India, Indochina Peninsula, southern China, Korea and Japan from May to September. ARs are found to contribute up to 44% of the total summer precipitation over the coastal regions of East Asia and up to 36% in South Asia. Also, ARs are associated with up to 68% of the summer extreme precipitation amount in East Asia and 52–56% in South Asia. The connection between ARs and extreme precipitation is partly explained by the increased precipitation efficiency when ARs occur, indicating a stronger ability of the atmospheric dynamical factors to deplete moisture and generate strong precipitation. The analyses of the combined ENSO–QBO effects on ARs show that ARs in the subtropics tend to become less frequent in the years preceded by an El Niño event due to the weakening of the low‐level monsoonal flows associated with the weakened land–sea thermal contrast and upper‐level tropical easterly jet, and such modulations tend to become more significant under the easterly phase of QBO.

Spatiotemporal variability of summer precipitation and precipitation extremes and associated large-scale mechanisms in Central Asia during 1979–2018

The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation extremes dramatically affects various socio-economic activities in dryland. Based on the long-term and high-resolution daily precipitation obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the total summer precipitation (TSP), precipitation extreme and persistent precipitation extreme (PPE) characteristics are revealed in Central Asia (CA) (34.3°N–55.4°N and 46.5°E–96.4°E) during 1979–2018. Results show that TSP, precipitation extreme and PPE in CA are significantly increased and the abrupt increasing occurred mainly in 1998. Additionally, proportion of precipitation extreme in TSP also increases. More significant positive trends of TSP, precipitation extreme and PPE occur in zones of northern Kazakhstan (NKZ) and Tienshan mountain range (TSM). Notably, although PEP in other regions exhibit indistinctive changes, PPE in some particular years abnormally frequent which may leads disasters. Further analyses indicate TSP and precipitation extreme in CA have significant positive correlation with the increasing water vapor transport from the southern boundary. Meanwhile, increasing horizontal moisture advection and enhanced vertical moisture advection, contributes to increasing in TSP and precipitation extreme in NKZ and TSM. In addition, negative phase of East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) may result in the cyclone anomalous and deepened trough over CA, which cooperates with enhanced vertical advection and abnormal south moisture, finally provides favorable conditions for precipitation and precipitation extreme.