Total Risk Premium Research Articles

Option implied dividends and the market risk premium

We propose a new method for computing a lower bound to the expected future dividend component of the market risk premium from observed option prices. We find that our estimate of future dividend yields has similar characteristics to future realized dividend yields, exhibits significant volatility and is a strong predictor of the realized dividend yield. We demonstrate that the dividend yield term structure is downward sloping and dividend yields constitute around 27% of the total market risk premium in the US. Our findings indicate that dividend yields are an important component of the total US market risk premium.

A Decomposition of Conditional Risk Premia and Implications for Representative Agent Models

We develop a methodology to decompose the conditional market risk premium and risk premia on higher-order moments of excess market returns into risk premia related to contingent claims on down, up, and moderate market returns. The decomposition exploits information about the risk-neutral market return distribution embedded in option prices, but does not depend on assumptions about the functional form of investor preferences or about the market return distribution. The total market risk premium is highly time-varying, as are the contributions from downside, upside, and central risk. Time-series variation in risk premia associated with each region is primarily driven by variation in risk prices associated with the probability of entering each region at short horizons, but it is primarily driven by variation in risk quantities at longer horizons. Analogous decompositions implied by prominent representative agent models generally fail to match the dynamic risk premium behavior implied by the data. Our results provide a set of new empirical facts regarding the drivers of conditional risk premia and identify new challenges for representative agent models. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01663 .

The Risk Premium on Mediterranean Emerging Stock Markets

In this paper, we test a conditional version of the international asset pricing model, using the multivariate GARCH process of De Santis and Gerard (1998). The model is estimated, over the period January 1997-March 2007, for five markets: the global, USA, Egyptian, Turkish and Israeli markets. We analyze a version of the ICAPM with a constant market risk price as well as the exchange rate risk price, while the conditional covariances vary over time. The results show that risk premium vary significantly across markets and over time, for all stock markets the contribution of currency premium to the total risk premium is economically significant. This study confirms that currency risk is a significant factor in the international valuation of financial assets.

A conditional higher-moment CAPM

This paper investigates whether dynamic and moment extensions to the traditional CAPM can improve its empirical performance and offer some alternative explanation to the cross-section of average returns on portfolios of stocks double sorted on book-to-market ratios and size. We consider three extensions. First, we introduce time-varying factor loadings obtained from a multivariate GARCH and dynamic conditional correlations. Second, we extend the model to a four-moment CAPM, which incorporates coskewness and cokurtosis. Finally, we allow for time-varying risk premia, based on a Markov-switching process. Our results confirm that the higher-moment CAPM does not perform well in its unconditional version, but its performance is significantly improved when we introduce a conditional version that accounts for both time-varying factor loadings and time-varying risk premia. The four-moment CAPM tests lead to a positive total risk premium estimate of 0.67% per month over the period 1926–2021, with all risk premia (beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis) exhibiting the expected theoretical signs.

How to Estimate the Impact of an Issuer’s ESG Risk on the Yield of its Bonds

All over the world, the ESG agenda is receiving more and more attention from the leadership of countries, international organizations and companies. These trends can be reflected both in the operating activities of companies and in the way they raise funds in financial markets, as well as in the pricing of financing instruments such as bonds. The subject of the study is the yield of circulating bonds of issuers with a credit rating, as well as ESG risk expressed by the ESG rating assigned to the issuer. The aim of the study is to develop the author’s theoretical and methodological approach to modeling the pricing of bonds and calculating their yield to maturity, which, in addition to generally accepted factors, also takes into account the issuer’s ESG risks. The methodological base of the study includes the analysis and comparison of the yield to maturity of bonds of corporate borrowers against the zero-coupon yield curve of federal loan bonds, ratings of rating agencies regarding the creditworthiness of issuers and their ESG risks. The author uses the total risk premium approach and evaluates the risk premium for investing in the issuer’s bonds as the sum of premiums for certain types of risks. At the same time, the author proposes an author’s modification of this approach in order to take into account the grade of the issuer’s ESG rating in the risk premium of its bonds and, accordingly, their yield to maturity, which is the scientific novelty and relevance of this work. Based on the performed mathematical modeling, the obtained results demonstrate that investors differently evaluate the required yield to maturity for an asset, depending on the grade of the issuing company’s ESG rating. In addition to describing the observed non-linear relationship between the factors that characterize the company, its bond issues and the return required by investors, modeling makes it possible to conclude that in the current realities, the investment idea to invest in Russian companies that follow the concept of sustainable development is conservative. Following sustainable development strategies by a larger number of companies from different industries and regions, together with the development of regulation, will lead to the further development of the green finance market in Russia and the world, and an increase in the coverage of companies by rating agencies. This will provide the author’s approach with development prospects, in particular, the modeling will be enriched with a large amount of input data, it will take into account a larger number of companies and their bond issues, and the possibility of adding new factors to the model will be studied.

Spread determinants in corporate bond pricing: The effect of market and liquidity risks

This paper investigates the effect of market and liquidity risks on corporate bond pricing in Turkey, an emerging market, and in Europe. Results show that corporate bond returns have exposure to liquidity factors and not to market factors in both settings. Corporate bonds issued in Turkey have significant exposure to fluctuations in benchmark treasury bond liquidity and corporate bond market liquidity; while corporate bonds issued in Eurozone have exposure to equity market liquidity and are sensitive to fluctuations in a 10-year generic government bond liquidity. The total estimated liquidity risk premium is 0.7% per annum for Turkish ?A? and above graded corporate bonds, and 1.08% for the last investment grade level (BBB-) long-term bonds. For Eurozone, the total liquidity risk premium is 0.27% for investment grade 5-10 year term bonds, 1.05% for high-yield 1-5 year term bonds and 1.02% for high-yield 5-10 year term category.

Selective Default Expectations

Sovereign governments often discriminate between creditors during debt default episodes. This paper explores how expectations of selective default affect sovereign bond trading and sovereign risk premia based on a historical laboratory: the German external default of the 1930s. We exploit a unique feature of the interwar sovereign bond market: identical German government bonds were traded on different creditor countries' secondary debt markets but investors expected creditors from various countries to be treated differently in case of default. We show that, when creditor countries' secondary debt markets are integrated, selective default expectations are not reflected in bond yields but affect the volume of bonds traded across markets. By contrast, when creditors' debt markets are geographically segmented, a large selective risk premium can be priced in sovereign bonds. This premium accounted for up to half of the total risk premium on German external bonds during the 1930s. We establish that creditor countries' seniority ranks can be explained by their economic power over the debtor government.

David and Goliath: On the US Investment Grade Credit Risk Premium

We analyze the US Corporate Investment Grade (IG) credit risk premium, as represented by the average excess return of US corporate IG bonds over duration-matched US Treasuries. Over the period January 1973 through April 2018, this credit excess return averaged 60 bps p.a. (implying a stand-alone Information Ratio of 0.16), which is deemed unattractively low. Breaking with standard practice to analyze this credit excess return in isolation, we instead propose a portfolio perspective that does justice to corporate bonds as “package deals”, offering exposure to both interest rate risk and credit risk. Because of diversification effects within this portfolio, not the stand-alone credit risk exposure is relevant but its contribution to total bond risk. As a result, the total risk premium on corporate bonds is a composite risk premium, composed of a pure asset risk premium (the term premium stemming from the “Treasury part”) and a factor risk premium which can only be earned in tandem with the term premium (reflecting the diversified credit risk contribution). Accepting the term premium as fair, we can use the relative risk contributions to solve for the implied credit risk premium. From a macro view, this implied credit risk premium is the fair premium that investors would require as compensation for bearing the credit risk exposure contained in the aggregate market value of outstanding US IG bonds. We find that the implied credit risk premium was 44 bps, which is well below the historical average credit excess return of 60 bps. From our package deal perspective, the historical credit risk premium is not small at all.

Supply, Demand, and Risk Premiums in Electricity Markets

We model the impact of supply and demand on risk premiums in electricity futures, using daily data for 2003-2014. The model provides a satisfactory fit and allows for unspanned economic risk not embedded in the futures price. The spot risk premium and forward bias implied by the model are on average large and negative but highly time-varying. Risk premiums display strong seasonal patterns, are related to the variance and skewness of the electricity spot price, and help predict future returns. The risk premium associated with supply constitutes the largest component of the total risk premium embedded in electricity futures.

A Generalized Earnings‐Based Stock Valuation Model with Learning

AbstractWe present a stock valuation model in an incomplete‐information environment in which the unobservable mean of earnings growth rate (MEGR) is learned and price is updated continuously. We calibrate our model to a market portfolio to empirically evaluate its performance. Of the 8.84% total risk premium we estimate, the earnings growth premium is 4.57%, the short‐rate risk contributes 3.38%, and the learning‐induced risk premium on the unknown MEGR is 0.89% (a nontrivial 10% of the total risk premium). This result highlights the significant learning effect on valuation, implying an additional risk premium in an incomplete‐information environment.

Risk aversion, fanning preference and volatility smirk on S&P 500 index options

ABSTRACTThis article proposes a novel way of pricing S&P 500 index options in the presence of jump risk. Our analysis is built upon an equilibrium option pricing rule for a representative agent economy. In particular, we use the weighted utility’s certainty equivalent to specify agent’s risk preference, which displays a fanning-out characteristic. We find that the fanning effect captures a remarkably large portion of the total market risk premium implicit in options. As a result, the model with fanning effect generates pronounced volatility smirks.

Risk Aversion, Fanning Preference, and Volatility Smirk on S&P500 Index Options

This paper proposes a novel way of pricing S&P500 index options in the presence of jump risk. Our analysis is built upon an equilibrium option pricing rule for a representative agent economy. In particular, we use the weighted utility’s certainty equivalent to specify agent’s risk preference, which displays a fanning out characteristic. We find that the fanning effect captures a remarkably large portion of the total market risk premium implicit in options. As a result, the model with fanning effect generates pronounced volatility smirks.

Empirical evidence of news about future prospects in the risk-pricing of oil assets

This empirical paper investigates the relevance of long-run risks associated with uncertainty shocks to future growth prospects (news about future prospects) for explaining the risk-pricing of oil stocks. An econometric method that incorporates dynamic factor analysis is used for estimating the pricing equation of oil stocks. The results indicate that oil investors care about long-run risks associated with future growth prospects. Long-run risks account for almost half of the total risk-premium of oil stocks. Long-run risks associated with future growth prospects are significantly shaped by latent factors related to the labor market, the price indices, and financial markets. Moreover, our estimated model captures some historical events including the oil crisis of the seventies, the economic crisis of the mid-eighties, the stock market crash of 1987, and the economic crises of 1998 and 2000.

Sarbanes-Oxley: changes in risk premium and return volatility

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine if the enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) resulted in lower risk premium and return volatility in the US stock markets. The paper examines the two components of excess return (total risk premium) separately: the amount of volatility (risk) and the unit price of risk (risk premium). Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a Component Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity approach to estimate the permanent and transitory component of share price volatility. The authors then use the predicted volatility to measure the unit price of risk and its changes due to the enactment of the SOX Act. Findings – The results regarding excess returns indicate that the implementation of SOX had a positive effect on the market. A positive effect means a steady decrease in required excess rates of returns due to the implementation of SOX. The years leading up to the implementation of SOX are characterized by significant sources of uncertainty. Around the implementation of SOX, the authors observe a long-term reduction in return volatility (risk), and a temporary reduction in the unit price of risk. Subsequent to the implementation, investors gained confidence in the effectiveness of internal controls over the financial reporting process, which helped in reducing the information risk and, therefore, the risk premium. Research limitations/implications – The authors find that total risk premium decreased over extended periods. The authors conclude that the enactment of SOX helped in reducing the uncertainty in the US capital market resulting in a reduction of total risk premiums and hence the cost of capital. Practical implications – The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms. Social implications – The study shows how financial markets react to regulations and the authors also provide information on investors’ reaction as firms adjust to changing regulations. The results of the study allows regulators to potentially use a more refined or targeted approach when introducing new regulations. It also allows investors to make informed investment decisions as they relate to risk premium requirements, which in turn may allow investors to allocate capital more efficiently. Originality/value – There are many studies concerning the enactment of SOX but few, if any, existing studies examine the original intent of SOX: to calm the US equity markets and restore market confidence from a return volatility perspective. The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms.

Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis

This paper evaluates the time-varying integration of the Singapore stock market in the ASEAN-5 region based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with c-DCC-FIAPARCH parameters. This model allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and domestic market risk premium. Our findings show several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration in the Singapore market is satisfactorily explained by the level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, which have recently tended to increase, however these markets remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain a significant proportion of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity markets. Our results are also of interest for both policymakers and investors, with respect to regional development policies and dedicated portfolio investment strategies in the ASEAN-5 region.

The Evolution Of Risk Premiums In Emerging Stock Markets: The Case Of Latin America And Asia Region

This paper employs a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to investigate the determinants of regional integration of stock markets in Latin America and Asia over the period 1996-2008. This model allows for three sources of time-varying risks: common international market risk, exchange rate risk, and regional market risk. At the empirical level, we make use of the asymmetric multivariate BEKK-GARCH of Baba et al.s (1990) process to simultaneously estimate the ICAPM. Our results show that the currency risk premium is the most important component of the total premium followed by the global market premium. As for the regional risk, our findings show that it is significantly priced for our studied emerging regions but its contribution to the total risk premium is weak.

Integration In Middle East Stock Markets: Determinants, Effects And Evolutions

This article investigates the stock market integration within the Middle East region. We develop a regional dynamic version of the CAPM and estimate it using a multivariate GARCH methodology. We contribute to the financial literature by proposing the first empirical work that addresses the following three questions for emerging stock markets from Middle East region: (i) What factors determine Middle East regional stock market integration? (ii) Is exchange rate risk priced in Middle East emerging stock markets? And (iii) what are the relative contributions of regional and local risk factors to the total risk premium in Middle East emerging stock markets?

An International CAPM for Partially Integrated Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This article proposes a theoretical testable capital asset pricing model for partially segmented markets. We establish that if some investors do not hold all international assets because of direct and/or indirect barriers, the world market portfolio is not efficient and the traditional international CAPM must be augmented by a new factor reflecting the local risk undiversifiable internationally. We also introduce a suitable framework to test this model empirically. Using a sample of six emerging markets and three mature markets, we find that the degree of stock market integration varies through time and that most of the sample emerging markets have become more integrated in the recent years. The local risk premium for emerging markets represents the most important component of the total risk premium, but its relative importance has increased recently. Differently, the total risk premium for developed countries is largely driven by global factors.

Liquidity and Asset Prices: An Empirical Investigation of the Finnish Stock Market

This paper presents a simplified single period asset-pricing model that adjusts for illiquidity and tests for the Finnish stock market. The empirical testing for a small yet developed market is motivated by the increased relevance of the illiquidity effect for illiquid assets/markets vastly reported in the literature. Our results support our hypothesis. The results show that expected returns on illiquidity portfolios are cross-sectionally linked with lliquidity risks more so than the market risk, whereas the comparable U.S. evidence reports otherwise. The illiquidity premium maintains its persistence even if we exclude illiquidity prone periods from the sample, although it generates a lower share of the total model risk premium than the full period. The remaining evidence highlights variations in the types of illiquidity risks depending upon proxy measure used, time variations in illiquidity premia, and the superior performance of liquidity-adjusted model compared to the simple CAPM to explain variations in returns across assets and periods.

All Risks Matter

We derive the total variance risk premium for an index in the stochastic environment of Driessen, Maenhout and Vilkov (2009) and correct the previous authors omission of certain components which contribute significantly to index option expected returns. This study provides a mathematically complete decomposition of an index's total variance risk premium, and a mathematically complete description of the dynamic asset pricing for the system consisting of the index and the index's component stocks. Previous authors studying this exact stochastic structure, have neglected important elements which contribute to the index's total variance risk premium. We illustrate that an index's total variance risk premium is due not only to changes in index component's variance and changes in component's return correlations, but is also due to important interactions between component's variances, changes in component's variances; correlations among component's returns and changes in correlations. We identify the roles of the total risk components within an option pricing framework and provide empirical verification of the statistical significance of the previously omitted adapting correlations and interactive risks. Furthermore we establish the generalized Black-Scholes-Merton partial differential system in the presence of nontrivial and stochastic correlations. The unified treatment of the partial differential system identifies interactive risks affecting index option price which have been ignored before. We also introduce the quantified systemic risk indicator. We show that all risks are economically significant determinants of option prices.