Total Population Growth Research Articles

Nongovernmental organizations, collective payments for ecosystem services programs, and forest loss: A cross‐national analysis

AbstractObjectiveWe evaluate the debate concerning the impact of collective nongovernmental organization payment for ecosystem services on forest loss in low‐ and middle‐income nations.MethodsWe analyze data for a sample of 79 low‐ and middle‐income nations using a two‐stage least squares regression model to address endogeneity on the payment for ecosystem services variable.ResultsWe find that collective nongovernmental organization led payment for ecosystem services programs correspond to less forest loss in low‐ and middle‐income nations. We also find that agricultural exports, agricultural land area, total population growth, rural population growth, and urban population growth are related to increased forest loss.ConclusionWe conclude that nongovernmental organizations can cooperate with Indigenous populations in low‐ and middle‐income nations to protect forests by using payment for ecosystem services programs.

Развитие демографического потенциала сельских территорий в целях обеспечения их социально-экономического развития (на примере Новосибирской области)

Introduction. The article considers opportunities to improve demographic potential as a critical factor influencing the socio-economic development of rural areas.Materials and methods. To study the actual demographic situation in the Novosibirsk region and the regions of the Siberian Federal District, statistical analysis methods were used - index, tabular methods, etc. The empirical basis for this was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, including the Territorial Authority for the Novosibirsk Region, on demographic processes in the Novosibirsk region for the 2010-2023 period (population size, structure, natural increase, migration increase, migration balance, total population growth rate, birth and death rate, average life expectancy).To analyze the implementation of the strategy for sustainable development of rural areas in the Russian Federation, a retrospective method was used, with the help of which the persistence of negative demographic trends in rural areas was shown.To work out recommendations for the development of corporate social policy directions for large organizations of the agro-industrial complex, the authors relied on strategic and systemic analysis methods to identify the potential and develop measures of corporate social policy of agricultural producers in the Novosibirsk region.Results. Consideration of the all-Russian situation regarding the development of rural areas showed that it is necessary to pay more attention to the development of the demographic potential of these territories. At the level of the Novosibirsk region, an analysis of the legislative framework allowed us to conclude that it is necessary to actively attract young people to rural areas, retaining them in agricultural enterprises, providing efficient employment and at the same time promoting the socio-economic development of rural areas.Discussion. Ensuring sustainable development of rural areas is impossible without solving demographic problems based on a regional demographic policy considering the interests of young rural families, and corporate demographic policy implementation at the level of agricultural enterprises.

The eutrophication process in the lagoon systems of eastern Rio de janeiro investigated through the analysis of sedimentary phosphorus and historic of basin occupation

Lagoons along the eastern coast of Rio de Janeiro serve as vital corridors for the preservation of marine and coastal biodiversity. However, these ecosystems are facing substantial threats stemming from environmental degradation and cultural eutrophication. This study aims to investigate the process of eutrophication by analyzing sedimentary environments in coastal lagoons located in the municipalities of (Itaipu) Niterói, (Fora) Saquarema, and Araruama (São Pedro da Aldeia). The investigation involves the analysis of sedimentary records collected at various times in each lagoon, with particular focus on phosphorus content and grain size distribution, emphasizing silt, clay and sand fractions. These analyses are correlated with the historical population growth in the drainage basins. Our working hypothesis posits that the impacts of urbanization on the degradation of lagoon systems are archived within the sedimentary records. It is anticipated that the extent and magnitude of these impacts are correlated with population density. The notable increase in demographic density can be attributed to the inauguration of the Rio-Niteroi Bridge, resulting in a significant influx of residents and tourists into the coastal region in question. This hypothesis is supported by census data, which reveal substantial population growth in coastal areas. In addition, this study utilizes ordination analysis, specifically Principal Component Analysis (PCA), to classify sedimentary layers based on their depositional characteristics. The PCA allows for the categorization of sedimentary data, unveiling changes in erosion and sedimentarion patterns. Remarkably, our research stablishes a significant correlation between the escalating total phosphorus fluxes and population growth, thereby providing valuable insights into the historical progression of cultural eutrophication within the coastal lagoon systems of eastern Rio de Janeiro. Overall, our findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of how urbanization and population dynamics have influenced the eutrophication process within there vital coastal ecosystems over the past five decades.

Regional Characteristics in the Dynamics and Location of the Rural Population of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Today, population settlements of the Republic of Uzbekistan, especially rural settlements, ensure the increase of the main population. Therefore, in this article, rural population settlements in the republic, the number and increase of their population were studied in the section of economic districts and regions. The reforms carried out in Uzbekistan in the last 30 years and how their results are reflected in the size, number and weight of rural settlements were proved by determining the rate of population growth, distribution in the territorial structure, density of villages and the distances between them.The unique geographical location of Uzbekistan and the location of the rural population of the regions in it, the role and importance of the increase in the rural population in the growth of the country's total population were revealed. In particular, the crowded and dense concentration of villages in the Ferghana Valley, which occupies the first place in terms of population density not only in the republic, but also in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, which has a large land area and a small population, and the increase in the number of rural residents in the Navoi regions, the differences in the territorial structure were clearly highlighted. Efforts were made to thoroughly research the effect of the work done on increasing the level of urbanization in the republic, the role of the rural population and the actual situation within the framework of rural districts and villages.

ANALISIS KEBUTUHAN AIR BERSIH DI WILAYAH KECAMATAN MADURAN KABUPATEN LAMONGAN

Water is a water resource that is indispensable for living things both to meet their needs and to sustain life naturally. The higher a person's standard of living, the higher the demand for water. The population of Maduran Subdistrict continues to increase from year to year, which has an impact on increasing water demand. 
 This study aims to calculate the water demand of Maduran Subdistrict for 2032 with 10 year projection. In this study, the projection of water demand is based on primary and secondary data. The projection of water demand for Maduran Subdistrict uses 2 analysis methods, namely the arithmetic method and the geometric method. 
 From the results of the analysis obtained that the total population growth of Maduran Subdistrict in 2032 is 38,761 people. Based on this population, the clean water demand of Maduran Sub-district in 2023 is 52.22 L/dt. While the maximum daily water demand is 57.44 L/dt, the current water availability can serve until 2032.

One size does not fit all: an application of stochastic modeling to estimating primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia at the sub-national level

BackgroundPrimary healthcare systems require adequate staffing to meet the needs of their local population. Guidelines typically use population ratio targets for healthcare workers, such as Ethiopia’s goal of two health extension workers for every five thousand people. However, fixed ratios do not reflect local demographics, fertility rates, disease burden (e.g., malaria endemicity), or trends in these values. Recognizing this, we set out to estimate the clinical workload to meet the primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia by region.MethodsWe utilize the open-source R package PACE-HRH for our analysis, which is a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model that estimates workload for a specified service package and population. Assumptions and data inputs for region-specific fertility, mortality, disease burden were drawn from literature, DHS, and WorldPop. We project workload until 2035 for seven regions and two charted cities of Ethiopia.ResultsAll regions and charted cities are expected to experience increased workload between 2021 and 2035 for a starting catchment of five thousand people. The expected (mean) annual clinical workload varied from 2,930 h (Addis) to 3,752 h (Gambela) and increased by 19–28% over fifteen years. This results from a decline in per capita workload (due to declines in fertility and infectious diseases), overpowered by total population growth. Pregnancy, non-communicable diseases, sick child care, and nutrition remain the largest service categories, but their priority shifts substantially in some regions by 2035. Sensitivity analysis shows that fertility assumptions have major implications for workload. We incorporate seasonality and estimate monthly variation of up to 8.9% (Somali), though most services with high variability are declining.ConclusionsRegional variation in demographics, fertility, seasonality, and disease trends all affect the workload estimates. This results in differences in expected clinical workload, the level of uncertainty in those estimates, and relative priorities between service categories. By showing these differences, we demonstrate the inadequacy of a fixed population ratio for staffing allocation. Policy-makers and regulators need to consider these factors in designing their healthcare systems, or they risk sub-optimally allocating workforce and creating inequitable access to care.

Cat: Empirical modelling of Felis catus population dynamics in the UK.

Domestic cats are popular companion animals, however not all live in human homes and many cats live within shelters or as free-roaming, unowned- feral or stray cats. Cats can transition between these subpopulations, but the influence of this connectivity on overall population dynamics, and the effectiveness of management interventions, remain poorly understood. We developed a UK-focused multistate Matrix Population Model (MPM), combining multiple life history parameters into an integrated model of cat demography and population dynamics. The model characterises cats according to their age, subpopulation and reproductive status, resulting in a 28-state model. We account for density-dependence, seasonality and uncertainty in our modelled projections. Through simulations, we examine the model by testing the effect of different female owned-cat neutering scenarios over a 10-year projection timespan. We also use the model to identify the vital rates to which total population growth is most sensitive. The current model framework demonstrates that increased prevalence of neutering within the owned cat subpopulation influences the population dynamics of all subpopulations. Further simulations find that neutering owned cats younger is sufficient to reduce overall population growth rate, regardless of the overall neutering prevalence. Population growth rate is most influenced by owned cat survival and fecundity. Owned cats, which made up the majority of our modelled population, have the most influence on overall population dynamics, followed by stray, feral and then shelter cats. Due to the importance of owned-cat parameters within the current model framework, we find cat population dynamics are most sensitive to shifts in owned cat husbandry. Our results provide a first evaluation of the demography of the domestic cat population in the UK and provide the first structured population model of its kind, thus contributing to a wider understanding of the importance of modelling connectivity between subpopulations. Through example scenarios we highlight the importance of studying domestic cat populations in their entirety to better understand factors influencing their dynamics and to guide management planning. The model provides a theoretical framework for further development, tailoring to specific geographies and experimental investigation of management interventions.

Socio-Economic Factors of Population Reproduction in Russia and in the Context of Federal Districts

The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.

The nexus between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in Sudan (1971–2019)

Electricity access for economic development is a major challenge in Sudan amidst rapid population growth and climate variabilities. This study investigates the nexus between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, total population, and economic growth from 1971 to 2019. This study incorporates Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach with various econometric techniques to address methodological limitations in Sudan and introduces appealing methodological innovation to control the structural breaks in the dataset. The empirical findings demonstrate that, despite the high potential of energy resources, Sudan has failed to provide adequate electricity to promote economic development and meet population electricity demand. The ARDL results show strong associations between total population, environmental degradation and economic growth. The Granger causality results show evidence that the country's growing population improves economic growth, increases electricity demand, and damages the environment. Therefore, the government's greatest challenge is achieving economic growth while promoting environmental quality. The findings suggest that Sudan cannot take the energy conservation policy because it could delay the country's economic growth. However, various policy reforms are needed for affordable electricity access and environmentally-friendly development, like promoting renewable energy, diversifying of energy mix, and supporting high efficiency in consumption-based sectors.

Growing population of the critically endangered white-thighed colobus monkey (Colobus vellerosus) from forest fragments in Ghana

Abstract The population of critically endangered white-thighed colobus monkeys (Colobus vellerosus) at Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary (BFMS) is possibly the only growing population of this species in West Africa. We assessed the current population status of C. vellerosus in BFMS and the surrounding fragments in Ghana. We undertook a complete count of the population in 2020, and this data was combined with previously conducted complete counts from 1990 to 2014. Results show that the total population growth rate of colobus monkeys at BFMS and the surrounding forest fragments was 353.9% between the 1990 and 2020 censuses (at a rate of 11.8% annually). In the BFMS alone, the total population growth rate was 252.3% between 1990 and 2020 (i.e., at a rate of 8.4% annually). The total population growth rate in the surrounding forest fragments was 97.0% between the first census year of 1997 and the 2020 census (i.e., at a rate of 4.2% annually). The mean group size in the BFMS was 16.7 individuals (SD = 4.0; range = 9–25), while that of the surrounding forest fragments was 14.4 individuals (SD = 4.6; range = 9–23). The overall mean group size was 16.1 individuals (SD = 4.3; range = 9–25). An approximate ratio of one adult male to three adult females (1:3.4) and one adult female to one immature (1:1.2) is an indication that the population of C. vellerosus still has the potential to increase further when new suitable forest fragments are explored in the future. C. vellerosus has the potential to increase further in population in small, suitable fragments if habitat destruction and settlement expansion are managed with primate conservation intentions.

МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ: ПРОБЛЕМЫ И РЕШЕНИЯ

The article considers the impact of international population migration on the demographic situation in Russia. Based on the results of a comparative analysis of the structure and dynamics of migration growth in Russia, it is shown that over the past 30 years, the role of international migration has been transformed from a complementary element of total population growth into a compensatory one. It was revealed that by the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century Russia has practically exhausted the migration potential of traditional donor countries in the post-Soviet space. In the medium term, that makes it necessary to expand the geography of migration flows. Both of the trends pose threats to national security.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ СИСТЕМЫ РАССЕЛЕНИЯ САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГСКОЙ АГЛОМЕРАЦИИ В 2010–2020-е гг.

The research article aims to study the transformation of the residential system of the St. Petersburg agglomeration in the period from 2010 to 2020 by analyzing statistical data on the population and housing development within the agglomeration. To test the hypothesis that there is a close relationship between the dynamics of population size and housing construction, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient showing correlation between the increase in the total area of apartment buildings and the population growth for the intercensal period 2010-2020. It amounts to 0.845, which confirms a close relationship between the indicators as well as the research hypothesis. The calculations show that more than 1/2 of the total population growth in the agglomeration is provided by only 7 municipalities, while a group of 6 municipalities accounts for 33% of new housing supply. The main areas of housing construction by municipalities of the agglomeration have been revealed.

Population and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Indonesia

The priority of this paper is to examine the relationship to and impact of population on economic growth and selected variables in Indonesia. This paper uses time-series data of total population, purchasing power parity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate in Indonesia for the period 1987-2020. The data are retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicator, St. Louisfed and Trading Economics. The method applied to analyze the data is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) with the support of EViews software. The finding shows that the population has a significant impact on the purchasing power parity, unemployment and GDP which means that the population indirectly impacts the economic growth in Indonesia. Both economic and demographic factors used in this paper are important in explaining the total population and economic growth in Indonesia and hence in view of policy implications. The implications may also allow the policymakers to come up with a new policy that helps to control the population growth in order to boost the economic growth in Indonesia.

Time to first birth and its predictors among reproductive age women in high fertility countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Inverse Weibull gamma shared frailty model

BackgroundEarly initiation of childbearing leads to an increase in total fertility rate and population growth. It has been linked with both maternal and child morbidity and mortality. However, there is limited information on the timing of the first birth and its predictors in the area so far. Therefore, determining the time to first birth and its predictors will help to design strategies to improve fertility rate, maternal and child survival.MethodsThe survey used recent (2010 – 2018) Demographic and Health data; a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select the sample. Inverse Weibull gamma shared frailty model was used to model the data at 95% confidence interval. Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) and median hazard ratio (MHR) were reported as effect size. Statistical significance was declared at p value < 0.05.ResultsThe overall median age at first birth was found to be 19 years (IQR: 16, 21 years). Rural residency (AHR = 1.02, 95%, CI 1.00,1.04), agricultural employee (AHR = 1.14, 95%, CI 1.13, 1.17), and nonagricultural employee (AHR = 1.06, 95%, CI 1.05, 1.08), marriage below 15 years (AHR = 5.47, 95%, CI 5.37, 5.57) and 15–17 years (AHR = 3.27, 95%, CI 3.22, 3.32), had sex below 15 years (AHR = = 1.57, 95%, CI 1.54, 1.61) and 15–17 years (AHR = 1.38, 95%, CI 1.38, 1.43), women who had unmet need for contraceptive (AHR = 1.39, 95%, CI 1.37, 1.42), and met need (AHR = 1.32, 95%, CI 1.30, 1.35), high spousal age gap (AHR = 1.17, 95%, CI 1.15, 1.19), not heard family planning message (AHR = 1.02, 95%, CI 1.01,1.04) were the higher hazard of early childbirth.ConclusionThe median age at first birth was found to be 19 years. This is lower than the optimal age for giving first birth, which is between late 20 s and early 30 s years. Rural residences, occupation, hearing family planning massage in the media, early sexual intercourse, early age at first marriage, high spousal gap, and unmet need for family planning were predictors of first birth at an early age. Thus, governments and non-governmental organizations should strive to implement programs that aim to reduce early age at first birth by considering these factors.

Multitemporal landslide exposure and vulnerability assessment in Medellín, Colombia

Landslides are often deadly natural events. Steep slopes and certain loose soil types are predestined areas for them. Moreover, in the context of climate change, extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, which often trigger landslides, are becoming even more likely. While all this is well known, it, therefore, stands to reason that this knowledge will lead to the avoidance of these risks. On the other hand, however, there are highly dynamic urbanization processes that often overtake formal urban planning processes by rising population figures and areal expansion. In the course of these processes, economically deprived population groups often have no other option than to informally build on high-risk areas. Against these backgrounds, we systematically examine in this study how these risks develop over a 24-year period from 1994 to 2018 taking into account three time steps, with respect to the citywide exposure and in particular with respect to different social groups. For this purpose, we use heterogeneous input data from remote sensing, landslide hazard maps, and census data. Our case study is the city of Medellín in Colombia. We develop and apply a set of methods integrating the heterogenous data sets to map, quantify and monitor exposure and social vulnerability at a fine spatial granularity. Our results document first of all the highly dynamic growth in total population and urban areas. However, our results reveal that the city's expansion is socially unevenly distributed. People of higher vulnerability proxied by informal settlements are found to settle in considerably higher shares of areas exposed to landslides. This study proposes a methodological setup that allows for monitoring exposure and social vulnerability over long time spans at a fine spatial resolution, allows to bring inequality into the spotlight, and provides decision-makers with better information to develop socially responsible policies.

Effects of salinity on survival, reproductive performance, population growth, and life stage composition in the calanoid copepod Acartia bilobata

Copepods are a critical live prey item for most marine finfish larvae in the natural environment. The calanoid copepod belonging to species Acartia is a potential live food for the larval rearing of marine finfishes because of their higher productivity and tolerance to wide range of salinities. The present study was conducted to determine the effect of salinity on production parameters to standardize the optimal salinity for Acartia bilobata culture. For selecting the optimal salinity range, the adult copepods were exposed to abrupt salinity change from 30 g L−1 to ten salinity levels, including 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 g L−1 and their survival estimated after 24 h. Further, the effect of salinity (15, 20,25,30, and 35 g L−1) on egg production, hatching success and population growth were studied. Following sudden salinity change, A. bilobata could tolerate a wide range of salinities from 15 to 35 g L−1, and no copepod survived below 10 g L−1 and above 35 g L−1. Average daily egg production was significantly higher at 25 and 30 g L−1 (32 ± 1 and 34 ± 2 eggs female−1 day−1). A remarkably low egg hatching success was recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity; however, all other tested salinities showed similar egg hatching success. Different salinity levels did not affect the sex ratio of A. bilobata. A significantly higher total population number (1539 ± 75) and intrinsic population growth rate (0.50 ± 0.00) was observed at 30 g L−1, followed by 25 g L−1 salinity. The lowest mean population (518 ± 19) and population growth rate (0.39 ± 0.00) were recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity. The study results suggested that 25–30 g L−1 is the optimal salinity range to achieve maximal production of A. bilobata.

Urban life cycle and long-run violence: Colombia 1938–2018

ABSTRACT This paper revisits and improves upon the traditional urban life cycle theory, using it as a long-term conceptual baseline model to assess the effect of the Colombian internal armed conflict on urbanization during 1938–2018. The paper makes three innovations: (1) It uses a third-degree autoregressive panel estimation to detect the underlying Data Generating Process of the urban life cycle, a feature that eluded original scholarship in the field; (2) It uses the baseline urban life cycle model to assess the impact of long-term violence in Colombia; and (3) It produces an inductive conceptual approach to the relationship between urbanization and economic development. Our third-degree autoregressive panel models adequately explain the urban concentration cycles experienced by Colombia’s 20 largest metropolitan areas, regardless of using different specification structures. It also correctly controls the long-term trends of the demographic transition that the country experienced during that period: its rate of urbanization increased from 31 to 68% between 1938 and 2018; the largest 20 metro areas increased their participation in the total population from 17 to 54%; and yearly total population growth increased from 2.12% in the 1940s to its peak 3.19% in the 1970s, decreasing to 1.18% in the 2010s. The homicide rate had a controlling effect on the increasing parts of the urban life cycle, acting as a deterrent of urban concentration per metropolitan area.

Analisis Kausalitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Provinsi Bali Tahun 2000-2019

Regional Original Income (PAD) and economic growth are important economic variables in a region. Economic growth in the long term can be defined as the process of increasing output per capita. This understanding contains three aspects, namely dynamic aspects, aspects of total output growth and population growth, and aspects of independence. The independence of a region is seen from the regional original income every year. This study aims to observe the causality pattern between economic growth and local revenue in Bali Province during the period 2000-2019 by using the Error Correction Model (ECM) causality test. The results of this study show that in Bali Province there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and local revenue. If economic growth increases it will have an impact on increasing regional original income, on the contrary if regional original income increases it will have an impact on increasing economic growth in the province of Bali.

Investigating the Mediating Roles of Income Level and Technological Innovation in Africa’s Sustainability Pathways Amidst Energy Transition, Resource Abundance, and Financial Inclusion

The global environment faces the issue of sustainability arising from the persistent growth rates in general production levels. Hence, there is the need to resolve the growth environment conflicts in order to enhance the sustainability of the current and future generations. This study presents the first empirical analysis on the dynamic impacts of non-renewable and renewable energy, total resource rents, population growth, human capital, and financial inclusion on environmental quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with the conditioning roles of technological progress and income level. The empirical evidence is based on a two-step system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) with forward orthogonal deviations for 42 countries in the SSA region from 2004 to 2018. The following results are established from the empirical analyses. First, renewable energy emerges as a promoter of environmental quality through its reducing impacts on carbon emissions per capita (co2pc). Second, other regressors turn out to impede environmental quality by contributing to the surge in co2pc. Third, the robustness checks analyses, which consider different variants of carbon emissions as outcome variables, revealing that the main results are robust and empirically supported to explain the variations in the level of pollutants in the region. Fourth, the impacts of technological progress from both direct (unconditional) and interactive (conditional) angles mitigate co2pc while income promotes it. On the policy front, promoting investment in renewable energy and structuring human capital development plans to promote green growth are seen as sacrosanct towards achieving a sustainable environment in the region.

Determinants of Carbon Emissions in 10 ASEAN Countries

Rapid economic development in ASEAN countries from many aspects of the global economy and energy outlook. Increased consumption of fossil fuels leads to an increase in CO2 emissions (ACE, 2021). The problem of increasing CO2 caused by economic development in ASEAN needs to be studied more deeply what variables will in the economic development affect the increase in CO2 emissions. The purpose of this study is to test and obtain empirical evidence on determinants of carbon emissions in 10 ASEAN Countries (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) during 2010-2018. Some of the factors that were taken in this study, there are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total population (PDDK), and industrial growth (MANF). This study uses panel data (time series and cross section). In using the method of regression of panel data is performed uji chow and uji hausman, and elected, namely the fixed effect model. Results of the study proved that all independent variables (GDP, total population, industrial growth) have a significant effect on carbon emissions. The conclusion is that by looking at all the independent variables in this study that affect the increase in CO2 emissions, it must be considered in the future how to control these variables in order to reduce CO2 emissions. The findings of this study are that the variables of GDP, total population and industrial growth cause an increase in CO2 emissions, this is in accordance with the theory.