Total Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Развитие демографического потенциала сельских территорий в целях обеспечения их социально-экономического развития (на примере Новосибирской области)

Introduction. The article considers opportunities to improve demographic potential as a critical factor influencing the socio-economic development of rural areas.Materials and methods. To study the actual demographic situation in the Novosibirsk region and the regions of the Siberian Federal District, statistical analysis methods were used - index, tabular methods, etc. The empirical basis for this was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, including the Territorial Authority for the Novosibirsk Region, on demographic processes in the Novosibirsk region for the 2010-2023 period (population size, structure, natural increase, migration increase, migration balance, total population growth rate, birth and death rate, average life expectancy).To analyze the implementation of the strategy for sustainable development of rural areas in the Russian Federation, a retrospective method was used, with the help of which the persistence of negative demographic trends in rural areas was shown.To work out recommendations for the development of corporate social policy directions for large organizations of the agro-industrial complex, the authors relied on strategic and systemic analysis methods to identify the potential and develop measures of corporate social policy of agricultural producers in the Novosibirsk region.Results. Consideration of the all-Russian situation regarding the development of rural areas showed that it is necessary to pay more attention to the development of the demographic potential of these territories. At the level of the Novosibirsk region, an analysis of the legislative framework allowed us to conclude that it is necessary to actively attract young people to rural areas, retaining them in agricultural enterprises, providing efficient employment and at the same time promoting the socio-economic development of rural areas.Discussion. Ensuring sustainable development of rural areas is impossible without solving demographic problems based on a regional demographic policy considering the interests of young rural families, and corporate demographic policy implementation at the level of agricultural enterprises.

Growing population of the critically endangered white-thighed colobus monkey (Colobus vellerosus) from forest fragments in Ghana

Abstract The population of critically endangered white-thighed colobus monkeys (Colobus vellerosus) at Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary (BFMS) is possibly the only growing population of this species in West Africa. We assessed the current population status of C. vellerosus in BFMS and the surrounding fragments in Ghana. We undertook a complete count of the population in 2020, and this data was combined with previously conducted complete counts from 1990 to 2014. Results show that the total population growth rate of colobus monkeys at BFMS and the surrounding forest fragments was 353.9% between the 1990 and 2020 censuses (at a rate of 11.8% annually). In the BFMS alone, the total population growth rate was 252.3% between 1990 and 2020 (i.e., at a rate of 8.4% annually). The total population growth rate in the surrounding forest fragments was 97.0% between the first census year of 1997 and the 2020 census (i.e., at a rate of 4.2% annually). The mean group size in the BFMS was 16.7 individuals (SD = 4.0; range = 9–25), while that of the surrounding forest fragments was 14.4 individuals (SD = 4.6; range = 9–23). The overall mean group size was 16.1 individuals (SD = 4.3; range = 9–25). An approximate ratio of one adult male to three adult females (1:3.4) and one adult female to one immature (1:1.2) is an indication that the population of C. vellerosus still has the potential to increase further when new suitable forest fragments are explored in the future. C. vellerosus has the potential to increase further in population in small, suitable fragments if habitat destruction and settlement expansion are managed with primate conservation intentions.

Changing multi-scale spatiotemporal patterns in food security risk in China

Food security was not only an important cornerstone of China's national rejuvenation, but also a matter of achieving the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. The spatial explicit and multi-scale comparative study of China's food security risk pattern was insufficient. Therefore, this study explored the spatio-temporal evolution and scale differences of food security risk pattern in China at micro- (pixel: 1km × 1 km), meso- (county) and macro (provincial) scales by constructing Food Security Risk Assessment models and Food Security Indexes (FSI) that were applicable to various scales, and provided theoretical basis and data support for the country and governments at all levels to formulate food security guarantee strategies. The results showed that the food security risk is quite different on different sides of Ejina-Longhai Line in 2018 at micro-scale. The food security situation in the area east of the Ejina-Longhai Line was generally good, while the area west of the Ejina-Longhai Line had higher food security risks. From 1990 to 2018, China's food security risks were spatially positively correlated and have significant global spatial agglomeration characteristics. In 1990, 2000 and 2018, the local spatial autocorrelation of food security risk at micro- and meso-level was similar. In the last decade of the 20th century, the food security situation in China showed a deteriorating trend due to the difference in the growth rate of total grain output and total population. Since the beginning of the 21st century, rapid increase in grain yields significantly reduced food security risks in China. The changes in food security index at micro- and meso-scales had a high similarity, however, the evaluation results at the meso-scale would underestimate the national food security risks. In addition, the larger the range (scale) of the evaluation unit, the more drastic the temporal variation in food security index, that is, the lower the stability. Scale differences and lower stability lead to evaluation results at the macro-scale that underestimate food security risks in the year of good harvest and overestimate food security risks in the year of poor harvest.

Effects of salinity on survival, reproductive performance, population growth, and life stage composition in the calanoid copepod Acartia bilobata

Copepods are a critical live prey item for most marine finfish larvae in the natural environment. The calanoid copepod belonging to species Acartia is a potential live food for the larval rearing of marine finfishes because of their higher productivity and tolerance to wide range of salinities. The present study was conducted to determine the effect of salinity on production parameters to standardize the optimal salinity for Acartia bilobata culture. For selecting the optimal salinity range, the adult copepods were exposed to abrupt salinity change from 30 g L−1 to ten salinity levels, including 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 g L−1 and their survival estimated after 24 h. Further, the effect of salinity (15, 20,25,30, and 35 g L−1) on egg production, hatching success and population growth were studied. Following sudden salinity change, A. bilobata could tolerate a wide range of salinities from 15 to 35 g L−1, and no copepod survived below 10 g L−1 and above 35 g L−1. Average daily egg production was significantly higher at 25 and 30 g L−1 (32 ± 1 and 34 ± 2 eggs female−1 day−1). A remarkably low egg hatching success was recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity; however, all other tested salinities showed similar egg hatching success. Different salinity levels did not affect the sex ratio of A. bilobata. A significantly higher total population number (1539 ± 75) and intrinsic population growth rate (0.50 ± 0.00) was observed at 30 g L−1, followed by 25 g L−1 salinity. The lowest mean population (518 ± 19) and population growth rate (0.39 ± 0.00) were recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity. The study results suggested that 25–30 g L−1 is the optimal salinity range to achieve maximal production of A. bilobata.

Opposing trends in survival and recruitment slow the recovery of a historically overexploited fishery

Quantifying temporal variation in demographic rates is a central goal of population ecology. In this study, we analyzed a multidecadal age-structured time series of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) abundance in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, to infer the time-varying demographic response of the population to reduced harvest in the wake of the fishery’s collapse. Our analysis shows that while survival probability of adults increased following the alleviation of harvesting pressure, per capita recruitment consistently declined over most of the study period, until the final three years when it began to increase. The countervailing demographic trends resulted in only limited directional change in the total population size and population growth rate. Rather, the population dynamics were dominated by large interannual variability and a shift towards an older age distribution. Our results are indicative of a slow recovery of the population after its collapse, despite the rising number of adults following relaxed harvest. This underscores the potential for heterogeneous demographic responses to management efforts due to the complex ecological context in which such efforts take place.

Agricultural land use and population growth in Nigeria. The need for synergy for a sustainable agricultural production

The study examined the relationship between agricultural land use and population growth rates from 1961 to 2018 in Nigeria. Secondary data were obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization and the World Bank. Descriptive statistics, trend equation and correlation analyses were used. Findings revealed that agricultural and arable land utilization grew at the rate of 0.62% and 0.72%, respectively per annum; while the total population growth rate stood at 2.57%. Also, urban and rural population grew at a rate of 4.75% and 1.67% respectively. In addition, the agricultural and arable land utilization rates had significant positive correlations with the total population, urban and rural population. Besides, the findings revealed that, agricultural land (to total land ratio) has continued to increase and currently averaged at 68.78% indicating massive land expansion put under agricultural used. Findings revealed that, most arable crop outputs increase majorly from land expansion rather than land productivity, a situation that cannot assure sustainable agricultural land use food security in a near future. Hence, the country needs agricultural land sparing policies and technologies to slow the current agricultural land expansion drive. Besides, the country’s agricultural land policies should focus on achieving land productivity and sustainable land-sharing strategies among major land users in the country. Again, the rural population growth rate is lower than the urban growth rate, implying that, the rural population is deteriorating with its probable negative effect on farm labour. This needs to be addressed urgently if the sustainable agricultural system is to be achieved in the near future in Nigeria.

The Potential of Food Security Crops in Ethiopia:Review

Potential crops are the most important to overcome food insecurity in Ethiopia. This paper also reviews the increasing productivity and production of potential crops through improved technology play great role to achieve food security in Ethiopia. Besides the possible increasing productivity and production of potential or major crops for food security in Ethiopia, through improving productivity of the crop, tackle climate change, tolerance/resistance to major abiotic and biotic factors. In Ethiopia, cereal crops have large coverage both in area and production. Even though out of the total grain crop area, 79.88% is under cereals and their production is contributed 86.68% of the grain production while Pulses covered 13.24% of the grain crop area and their production is 10.38% of the grain production. These potential crops are mainly the primary component in the most Ethiopians’ diet, and also the key to food security in the country. The possible opportunities for increasing major crop production and productivity in Ethiopia are wide suitable land resources, broad crop genetic diversities, availability of different types water resources and conducive government policy. However, challenges also occur in our country like climate change, technological problem, socio-cultural problems, biotic and abiotic factors, lack of skilled manpower, increasing human population growth and they put more people under malnutrition. The major areas of focus on the future major food security crops improvement are improving the productivity of the crop, tackling climate change, capacitating human skill, lowering the total population growth rate through creating awareness on human contraceptive mechanisms, developing tolerance/resistance crops to major abiotic and biotic factors. Keywords: Potential, Production, Food security DOI: 10.7176/JNSR12-2-02 Publication date: January 31 st 2021

MILITARY AND DEMOGRAPHIC INTER-LINKAGES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LITHUANIAN SUSTAINABILITY

This paper aims at investigating military and demographic inter-linkages in the context of the Lithuanian sustainability. The investigation combines three important economic aspects such as demographic, military and sustainable development. The authors have revealed that demographic trends should be seen as a necessary conditions for ensuring the functioning of the military sector contributes to public security and sustainable development in general. Correlation and stepwise regression analysis, also Monte Carlo forecasting method have been applied for this purpose. Research results have revealed statistically significant interrelationship between military personnel as a share of total labour force and population growth rate, population median age, total fertility rate as well as birth rate. Moreover, Monte Carlo forecasting method allowed revealing for the next 10 years a steady slight increase in armed forces personnel, stable population growth rates, a rapid aging process and a slight decline of total fertility rate. Military and demographic estimations and future projections allow government to incorporate information into planning and sustainable development policy. The insights from this research may contribute to implementing the goals of sustainable development related to eradication of poverty, inequality, social exclusion, improvement in education, well-being and employment and tackling climate change.

Access to drinking water in sub-Saharan Africa: does the developmental state doctrine matter?

Using data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries, this study investigates the relevance of the developmental state doctrine to enhancing access to improved drinking water sources and to reducing urban–rural inequalities in access to improved sources and piped-on premises. Although access to improved water sources and urban–rural inequality seems better in developmental states than in non-developmental states, we have not found sufficient support for the claim that the developmental state approach is the best alternative. The influence of corruption is, unexpectedly, higher in developmental states than in non-developmental states. Moreover, both developmental states and non-developmental states were not significantly investing in access to drinking water supply programs. We find that the total population growth rate is the strongest predictor, rather than regime type. Other factors that explain the variation between all samples of developmental states and non-developmental states are identified and discussed, and implications are outlined. Points for practitioners There is significant variation in access to improved drinking water sources and urban–rural inequalities in access to improved sources and piped-on premises between developmental states and non-developmental states. The relevance of the developmental state doctrine to improving access to drinking water, reducing socio-economic inequalities in access to drinking water, and realizing Sustainable Development Goal targets in sub-Saharan Africa is ambiguous. We advise strengthening a functional Weberian bureaucracy and promoting political decentralization.

Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance

Metropolitan growth in advanced countries is the result of inherent transformations in morphology and functions, with emergence and consolidation of demographic processes widening the divide between urban and rural areas. The present study proposes an original analysis of urban expansion quantifying the contribution of natural and migration balance in total population growth rate under different transitional stages of a city life cycle (‘urbanization’, ‘suburbanization’, ‘counter-urbanization’, and ‘re-urbanization’). A spatially explicit approach based on Moran’s autocorrelation indexes and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) supplemented a more traditional analysis of municipal-level census data and vital statistics assessing long-term population dynamics over a complete urban cycle in the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece). Our work demonstrates that natural balance contributed significantly to population growth during ‘urbanization’ and ‘re-urbanization’ stages. Conversely, migration balance contributed more significantly to population growth during ‘suburbanization’ and ‘counter-urbanization’ stages. Results of this study re-contextualize metropolitan cycles within a more general debate on demographic transition.

Study on the impact of climate change in China

Global warming is not only an important problem in the survival and development of human beings, but also an urgent problem to be solved by the contemporary government. China is not only a big country in the world, but also ranks first in the world in total population, economic scale and economic growth rate. With the improvement of the national economic strength, China's greenhouse gas emissions are also increasing year by year, the ecological environment has been seriously damaged, leading to the rising of the environment at the same time is also facing severe environmental challenges and huge pressure to reduce emissions, so, How to deal with the problem of climate warming is particularly important in China.

KELEMBAGAAN DAN CAPAIAN PROGRAM KELUARGA BERENCANA (KB): DARI ERA SENTRALISASI KE DESENTRALISASI

Indonesia experienced a change in the organization of the Family Planning (FP) Program from centralized to a decentralized one. This article aims to compare various Indonesia’s FP policies, implemented by the National Population and Family Planning Board (NPFPB), in each era of governance, and their respective Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Population Growth Rate (PGR) achievements. We reviewed FP programs from Soekarno’s presidency until Joko Widodo’s presidency (1983-2018). The centralization approached was implemented during the Soekarno’s and Soeharto’s presidency, while the decentralization has been implemented since Habibie’s and Joko Widodo’s presidency. The centralization approach in Soeharto’s presidency had succeeded in lowering the TFR and become success story of the FP program. In contrast, the decentralization approach has not reached its target since it has impacted the organizational structure and family planning programs and their achievements through every new presidency. The decentralization also changed the communication role in the declining TFR and PGR era in each presidency in Indonesia.

PENGARUH PERBEDAAN JENIS MEDIA ALAMI DAN EKOSISTEM TERHADAP KEANEKARAGAMAN DAN LAJU PERTUMBUHAN JENIS MOLUSKA DI PERAIRAN PESISIR SEKOTONG

Mollusca are one of the fouling (biofouling) organisms attaching to hard objects in the sea and freshwater waters. The attachment and growth of fouling organisms is a serious problem because it is one of the factors that can damage the structure of building materials and has a considerable impact on the development of the marine industry. This study aimed to determine the effect of distinction of natural media placed in three ecosystems towards species diversity and growth rates of mollusca. The observation of attachment conditions and growth of the mollusca populations in each media were documented by using an underwater camera. Based on the results of research and identification, the researcher found that there were 5 species from 2 classes namely Gastropoda and Bivalvia and 2 family named Vermetidae and Ostreidae. The attached species of Gastropoda class was only Petaloconchus varians, while species of Bivalvia class were Planostrea pestigris, Alectryonella plicatula, Ostrea edulis and Crassostrea gigas. The most abundant species were found in tile media with an abundance of 1,014 individuals / cm2. While the lowest abundance of individuals was found in stone media which was equal to 0.141 individuals/cm2. The species with the highest population growth rate was the species of Petaloconchus varians with a total population growth rate of 11.66 ind/ week. While species with the lowest population growth rate was found in Alectryonella plicatula species with a total population growth rate of 0.16 ind/ week.

Phase- and season-dependent changes in social behaviour in cyclic vole populations

BackgroundSocial behaviour has been linked to hypotheses explaining multiannual population cycles of small rodents. In this paper we aimed to test empirically that the degree of space sharing among adult breeding female voles is higher during the increase phase than in the crash phase, and that the degree of sociality is positively related to population growth rate as suggested by Lambin and Krebs (Oikos 61:126–132, 1991) and Andreassen et al. (Oikos 122:507–515, 2013). We followed 24 natural bank vole Myodes glareolus populations over an area of 113 km2 by monthly live trapping throughout a complete population cycle of three summers and two winters.ResultsUsing spatially explicit capture-recapture models, we modelled the overlap in adult female home ranges and total population growth rate per season. We identified an increase phase before and during the peak density observation and a crash phase following the peak. Female home range overlap were seasonal- and phase-dependent, while population growth rate was associated with season and female home range overlap. High female home range overlap in the increase phase corresponded to a high population growth rate.ConclusionsWe suggest that intrinsic social behaviour plays a key role in the increase phase of vole population cycles, as social behaviour leads to an increased growth rate, whereas extrinsic factors (predation and/or food) initiate the crash phase. Our results are consistent with those of other studies in a variety of small rodent species.

Habitat selection and the value of information in heterogenous landscapes

Despite the wide usage of the term information in evolutionary ecology, there is no general treatise between fitness (i.e. density‐dependent population growth) and selection of the environment sensu lato. Here we 1) initiate the building of a quantitative framework with which to examine the relationship between information use in spatially heterogeneous landscapes and density‐dependent population growth, and 2) illustrate its utility by applying the framework to an existing model of breeding habitat selection. We begin by linking information, as a process of narrowing choice, to population growth/fitness. Second, we define a measure of a population's penalty of ignorance based on the Kullback–Leibler index that combines the contributions of resource selection (i.e. biased use of breeding sites) and density‐dependent depletion. Third, we quantify the extent to which environmental heterogeneity (i.e. mean and variance within a landscape) constrains sustainable population growth of unbiased agents. We call this the heterogeneity‐based fitness deficit, and combine this with population simulations to quantify the independent contribution of information‐use strategies to the total population growth rate. We further capitalize on this example to highlight the interactive effects of information between ecological scales when fear affects individual fitness through phenotypic plasticity. Informed breeding habitat selection moderates the demographic cost of fear commensurate with density‐dependent information use. Thus, future work should attempt to differentiate between phenotypic plasticity (i.e. acute fear) and demographic responses (i.e. chronic changes in population size). We conclude with a broader discussion of information in alternative contexts, and explore some evolutionary considerations for information use. We note how competition among individuals may constrain the information state among individuals, and the implications of this constraint under environmental change.

Correlates of Depression Among Elderly Population Residing in a Community in Eastern Nepal

Introduction: With an increase in life expectancy, demographic transition has led to sharp rise in number of elderly population. The elderly population growth rate per year has always been more than the total population growth rate, signifying the start of the ageing dynamics in Nepal. Mental health is a neglected health problem of the elderly in Nepal, with depression topping the list. This needs to be addressed in the national programs for the elderly to bring about an overall improvement in their health status.Objectives: This study was conducted with objectives to identify the prevalence of depression and factors associated with it in an urban municipality of eastern Nepal.Methodology: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted using the Geriatric Depression Scale- Short Form (GDS-SF) with 15 questions to screen for depression with a cutoff of 4/5. Door to door visit was done for data collection and face to face interviews were conducted. Pearson's Chi-square was used and Odds Ratio (OR) with confidence limits was calculated for inferential statistics. Logistic regression analysis was performed for all independent variables significantly associated in the bivariate analysis.Results: Among the 353 study subjects interviewed, depression was identified in 65.2% by GDS-SF. Regression Model showed that age more than 70 years, being in the lower class of Kuppuswamy Socioeconomic scale and elderly who were not satisfied with the respect given by their community had more odds of being depressed.Conclusion: Prevalence of depression among elderly was found to be very high in this study which was significantly associated with older age, low socio-economic status and perceived lack of respect from the community. BJHS 2018;3(1)5 : 325-330

Role of nature reserves in giant panda protection.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a flagship species in nature conservation of the world; to protect this species, 67 nature reserves have been established in China. To evaluate the protection effect of giant panda nature reserves, we analyzed the variation of giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province based on the national survey data released by State Forestry Administration and Sichuan Forestry Department. Results showed that from the third national survey to the fourth, giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province failed to realize the significant increase. Furthermore, we found that the total population growth rate of 23 nature reserves in the last 12years was lower than those of the province total of Sichuan and the national total of China, and the total habitat area of the 23 nature reserves was decreasing in the last 12years, but the province total and national total were all increasing. We propose that giant panda protection should pay more attention to how to improve the protective effects of nature reserves.

Paradoxes in leaky microbial trade

Microbes produce metabolic resources that are important for cell growth yet leak into the environment. Other microbes can use these resources, adjust their own metabolic production accordingly, and alter the resources available for others. We analyze a model in which metabolite concentrations, production regulation, and population frequencies coevolve in the simple case of two cell types producing two metabolites. We identify three paradoxes where changes that should intuitively benefit a cell type actually harm it. For example, a cell type can become more efficient at producing a metabolite and its relative frequency can decrease—or alternatively the total population growth rate can decrease. Another paradox occurs when a cell type manipulates its counterpart’s production so as to maximize its own instantaneous growth rate, only to achieve a lower final growth rate than had it not manipulated. These paradoxes highlight the complex and counterintuitive dynamics that emerge in simple microbial economies.

Fiscal Variables and Economic Growth in Oil-rich Developing Countries (1981-2013)

This study examined the growth effect of fiscal variable specifically government expenditure in the oil-rich developing countries of Nigeria, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. The study covered the period 1981 to 2013. The secondary data used for the study were fetched from World Development Indicators (WDIs) 2014 edition and Pen World Tables version 8.1. The variables included in the analysis include GDP, aggregate government expenditure, imports and exports of goods and services all in US dollar. Others include broad money as a percentage of GDP, annual inflation rate, annual growth rate of population and total population. We employed Time Series Econometric techniques of analysis. Long-run equilibrium relationships were found to exist between government expenditure and economic growth in all the three countries. The result also shows that government expenditures have positive and significant effects on economic growth. However, the magnitude of these effects varies across the three countries. This finding therefore called for the support for fiscal space hypothesis in these countries to boost economic growth. We therefore concluded that government expenditure among other variables enhanced economic growth in the oil-rich developing countries of Nigeria, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia during the period under investigation.

Growth rates of the population in a branching Brownian motion with an inhomogeneous breeding potential

We consider a branching particle system where each particle moves as an independent Brownian motion and breeds at a rate proportional to its distance from the origin raised to the power p, for p∈[0,2). The asymptotic behaviour of the right-most particle for this system is already known; in this article we give large deviations probabilities for particles following “difficult” paths, growth rates along “easy” paths, the total population growth rate, and we derive the optimal paths which particles must follow to achieve this growth rate.