Total Number Of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases Research Articles

Post-COVID-19: Time to Change Our Way of Life for a Better Future.

Background and Objectives: From the year 1 anno Domini until 1855, with the third plague, major pandemics occurred on average every 348 years. Since then, they have occurred on average every 33 years, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now underway. Even though current technologies have greatly improved the way of life of human beings, COVID-19, with more than 700,000,000 cases and 6,950,000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2023, reminds us that much remains to be done. This report looks back at 18 months of COVID-19, from March 2020 to August 2021, with the aim of highlighting potential solutions that could help mitigate the impact of future pandemics. Materials and Methods: COVID-19 data, including case and death reports, were extracted daily from the Worldometer platform to build a database for the macroscopic analysis of the spread of the virus around the world. Demographic data were integrated into the COVID-19 database for a better understanding of the spatial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in cities/municipalities. Without loss of generality, only data from the top 30 (out of 200 and above) countries ranked by total number of COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Statistics (regression, t-test (p < 0.05), correlation, mean ± std, etc.) were carried out with Excel software (Microsoft® Excel® 2013 (15.0.5579.1001)). Spectral analysis, using Matlab software (license number: 227725), was also used to try to better understand the temporal spread of COVID-19. Results: This study showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries and that cities/municipalities with high population density are a powerful activator of the spread of the virus. In addition, spectral analysis highlighted that the very first months of the spread of COVID-19 were the most notable, with a strong expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. On the other hand, the following six months showed a certain level of stability, mainly due to multiple preventive measures such as confinement, the closure of non-essential services, the wearing of masks, distancing of 2 m, etc. Conclusion: Given that densely populated cities and municipal areas have largely favored the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is believed that such a demographic context is becoming a societal problem that developed countries must address in a manner that is adequate and urgent. COVID-19 has made us understand that it is time to act both preventatively and curatively. With phenomenological evidence suggesting that the next pandemic could occur in less than 50 years, it may be time to launch new societal projects aimed at relieving congestion in densely populated regions.

Application of Skimmed-Milk Flocculation Method for Wastewater Surveillance of COVID-19 in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Wastewater surveillance (WS) has been used globally as a complementary tool to monitor the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the pandemic. However, a concern about the appropriateness of WS in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) exists due to low sewer coverage and expensive viral concentration methods. In this study, influent wastewater samples (n = 63) collected from two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) of the Kathmandu Valley between March 2021 and February 2022 were concentrated using the economical skimmed-milk flocculation method (SMFM). The presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was tested by qPCR using assays that target the nucleocapsid (N) and envelope (E) genes. Overall, 84% (53/63) of the total samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 according to at least one of the tested assays, with concentrations ranging from 3.5 to 8.3 log10 gene copies/L, indicating the effectiveness of the SMFM. No correlation was observed between the total number of COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater collected from the two WWTPs (p > 0.05). This finding cautions the prediction of future COVID-19 waves and the estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases based on wastewater concentration in settings with low sewer coverage by WWTPs. Future studies on WS in LMICs are recommended to be conducted by downscaling to sewer drainage, targeting a limited number of houses. Overall, this study supports the notion that SMFM can be an excellent economical virus-concentrating method for WS of COVID-19 in LMICs.

Survey on chest CT findings in COVID-19 patients in Okinawa, Japan: differences between the delta and omicron variants

To investigate the frequency of pneumonia and chest computed tomography (CT) findings in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the fifth Delta variant-predominant and sixth Omicron variant-predominant waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Okinawa, Japan. A survey on chest CT examinations for patients with COVID-19 was conducted byhospitals with board-certified radiologists who provided treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia in Okinawa Prefecture. Data from 11 facilities were investigated. Indications for chest CT; number of COVID-19 patients undergoing chest CT; number of patients with late-onset pneumonia, tracheal intubation, and number of deaths; and COVID-19 Reporting and Data System classifications of initial chest CT scans were compared by the chi-squared test between the two pandemic waves (Delta vs. Omicron variants). A total of 1944 CT scans were performed during the fifth wave, and 1178 were performed during the sixth wave. CT implementation rates, which were the number of patients with COVID-19 undergoing CT examinations divided by the total number of COVID-19 cases in Okinawa Prefecture during the waves, were 7.1% for the fifth wave and 2.1% for the sixth wave. The rates of tracheal intubation and mortality were higher in the fifth wave. Differences between the distributions of the CO-RADS classifications were statistically significant for the fifth and sixth waves (p < 0.0001). In the fifth wave, CO-RADS 5 (typical of COVID-19) was most common (65%); in the sixth wave, CO-RADS 1 (no findings of pneumonia) was most common (50%). The finding of “typical for other infection but not COVID-19” was more frequent in the sixth than in the fifth wave (13.6% vs. 1.9%, respectively). The frequencies of pneumonia and typical CT findings were higher in the fifth Delta variant-predominant wave, and nontypical CT findings were more frequent in the sixth Omicron variant-predominant wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Okinawa, Japan.

Early impact of COVID-19 pandemic on heart transplant volumes in Asia and Oceania: results from the Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation (GODT)

Funding AcknowledgementsType of funding sources: None.IntroductionMassive demand for healthcare services worldwide following the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has limited the availability of healthcare resources needed for certain high-complexity procedures, including orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). Whereas the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on several elective procedures has been well-documented, data on regional changes in OHT volumes after COVID-19 are limited. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on OHT volumes in Asia and Oceania.MethodsUsing data from the Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation (GODT), the world"s most comprehensive source of data on organ donation and transplantation, we recorded the number of OHT procedures performed in years 2019 (pre-COVID-19 era) and 2020 (COVID-19 era). The analysis was limited to countries with reported OHT data within Asia and Oceania (Australia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates). OHT rates were reported for each country per million population (PMP), and change in the COVID-19 era was reported as percentage of the pre-COVID-19 rates. The association of total COVID-19 cases with relative reduction in OHT was evaluated using linear regression.ResultsAcross the Asia/Oceania region, number of OHT in COVID-19 era (median 0.64 procedures PMP, IQR 0.28, 2.15) was significantly lower compared with the pre-COVID-19 era (median 1.18 procedures PMP, IQR 0.49, 2.50), with a median change of -0.29 (IQR -0.70, -0.08; P = 0.04). The impact of COVID-19 on OHT was most pronounced in Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and India, where OHT volumes decreased by 75.4%, 60.8%, and 53%, respectively. Country-level reduction in OHT volumes was not associated with total number of COVID-19 cases during the year 2020 in that country (r = 0.31; P-value = 0.3).ConclusionThe number of heart transplants during the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic significantly decreased in ­­­most countries of the Asia/Oceania region. Furthermore, the change in OHT volumes did not correlate with the total number of recorded COVID-19 cases, suggesting the pandemic’s impact on OHT numbers extended beyond limiting availability of resources. Identifying factors leading to OHT deferral during COVID-19 pandemic will advance our understanding of the pandemic’s true impact on the care of advanced heart failure patients in the region. Figure.

Colorectal Surgery in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread at a very fast rate, overwhelming and disrupting healthcare systems around the world since its outbreak in December 2019 in China. As of October 2021, the total number of COVID-19 cases exceeds 240,000,000, and the total number of deaths is close to 5,000,000. In the situation of widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection, restrictions on the medical system due to shifts in medical care to accommodate the pandemic will occur, and its impact on surgical and endoscopic treatment for colorectal cancer is inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to satisfy all of the following requirements: patient safety, prevention of exposure of healthcare workers including surgeons, prevention of nosocomial infection, and a decision on how to treat the primary disease. Surgical triage is also required, based on comprehensive consideration of the patient's condition, the severity of the disease, the SARS-CoV-2 infection situation in the region, and the medical supply system at each facility, including medical resources, human resources, and the availability of medical equipment. Understanding the diagnostic and treatment environment that the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed is important in providing appropriate surgical care to patients who require surgery while taking utmost care to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Delay Time Parameter and Its Confidence Interval of Predictive Time Series of COVID-19 Outbreak Between the First and the Second Wave

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a major problem facing humans all around the world. For governments, in order to deal with the outbreak and protect the population, it is important to predict the number of infectious cases in the future to monitor the COVID-19 situation. This research aimed to compare the effectiveness of the logistic and the delay logistic time series in predicting the total number of infectious cases by using actual data from four countries, i.e. Thailand, South Korea, Egypt, and Nigeria. The total number of COVID-19 cases was collected during the first and the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. The validation and accuracy of the predictive growth curve time series were determined based on statistical values, i.e. the coefficient of determination and the root mean squared percentage error. It was found that the logistic time series was more appropriate for predicting the first wave in the four countries. For the second wave, the delay logistic time series was preferable. Moreover, the confidence interval based on Chebyshev’s inequality of delay time between the first and the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak is also proposed.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Older Adults in Rural and Urban Areas in Mexico.

ObjectivesMexico is among the countries in Latin America hit hardest by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A large proportion of older adults in Mexico have high prevalence of multimorbidity and live in poverty with limited access to health care services. These statistics are even higher among adults living in rural areas, which suggest that older adults in rural communities may be more susceptible to COVID-19. The objectives of the article were to compare clinical and demographic characteristics for people diagnosed with COVID-19 by age group, and to describe cases and mortality in rural and urban communities.MethodWe linked publicly available data from the Mexican Ministry of Health and the Census. Municipalities were classified based on population as rural (<2,500), semirural (≥2,500 and <15,000), semiurban (≥15,000 and <100,000), and urban (≥100,000). Zero-inflated negative binomial models were performed to calculate the total number of COVID-19 cases, and deaths per 1,000,000 persons using the population of each municipality as a denominator.ResultsOlder adults were more likely to be hospitalized and reported severe cases, with higher mortality rates. In addition, rural municipalities reported a higher number of COVID-19 cases and mortality related to COVID-19 per million than urban municipalities. The adjusted absolute difference in COVID-19 cases was 912.7 per million (95% confidence interval [CI]: 79.0–1746.4) and mortality related to COVID-19 was 390.6 per million (95% CI: 204.5–576.7).DiscussionUrgent policy efforts are needed to mandate the use of face masks, encourage handwashing, and improve specialty care for Mexicans in rural areas.

Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large‐scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID‐19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID‐19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation‐induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID‐19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID‐19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives. These results are relevant to disease transmission during evacuations stemming from additional climate‐related hazards such as wildfires and floods.

Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases

ObjectivesMandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic. Study designThis is a regional population-level observational study. MethodsUsing publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome. ResultsWe found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001). ConclusionsInitiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region.

Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China.

ObjectiveTo design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.MethodsWe used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic.FindingsBased on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71).ConclusionWhile the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.

Mortality Attributed to COVID-19 in High-Altitude Populations

Woolcott, Orison O., and Richard N. Bergman. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 in high-altitude populations. High Alt Med Biol. 21:409-416, 2020. Background: Since partial oxygen pressure decreases as altitude increases, environmental hypoxia could worsen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient's hypoxemia. We compared COVID-19 mortality at different altitudes. Methods: Retrospective analysis of population-level data on COVID-19 deaths was conducted in the United States (1,016 counties) and Mexico (567 municipalities). Mixed-model Poisson regression analysis of the association between altitude and COVID-19 mortality was conducted using individual-level data from 40,168 Mexican subjects with COVID-19, adjusting for multiple covariates. Results: Between January 20 and April 13, 2020, mortality rates were higher in U.S. counties located at ≥2,000 m elevation versus those located <1,500 m (12.3 vs. 3.2 per 100,000; p < 0.001). In Mexico, between March 13 and May 13, 2020, mortality rates were higher in municipalities located at ≥2,000 m versus those located <1,500 m (5.3 vs. 3.9 per 100,000; p < 0.001). Among Mexican subjects younger than 65 years, the risk of death was 36% higher in those living at ≥2,000 m versus those living at <1,500 m (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.36; confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05-1.78; p = 0.022). Among Mexican men, the risk of death was 31% higher at ≥2,000 m versus that at <1,500 m (adjusted IRR: 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.66; p = 0.025). No association between altitude and COVID-19 mortality was found among Mexican women or among Mexican subjects 65 years of age and older. Conclusions: Altitude is associated with COVID-19 mortality in men younger than 65 years.

Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke Treatment in United States

Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke Treatment in United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 and gender-related mortality in European countries: A meta-analysis

ObjectiveTo examine mortality rates related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by gender among European countries. MethodsPubMed, preprint medRxiv and bioRxiv repositories, and Google were searched for the terms COVID-19, mortality rates, gender, and Europe. Only Google provided a website with appropriate information. COVID-19 cases and deaths from European countries were extracted by gender from the Global Health 50/50 repository up to May 23, 2020. Extracted data included country, the total number of COVID-19 cases and the number of related deaths by gender. Random effects models with the inverse variance method were used for meta-analyses. Results are reported as death risk ratios (RRs). ResultsWe identified information from 23 European countries that reported separately by gender mortality rates related to COVID-19. The sample comprised 484,919 men and 605,229 women positive for COVID-19. The mortality rate was significantly higher in men than in women (risk ratio = 1.60, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.53, 1.68). The trend was similar when countries reporting < 5000, or < 10,000 cases were excluded from the analysis (RR = 1.60, 95 % CI 1.52, 1.69 and RR = 1.68; CI 1.62, 1.76, respectively). ConclusionIn Europe, the new zoonotic coronavirus causes significantly more deaths in men than in women.

Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19-Related Patient Outcomes in Different Countries and Plan of Action: A Retrospective Analysis

Current development around the pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents a significant healthcare resource burden threatening to overwhelm the available nationwide healthcare infrastructure. It is essential to consider, especially for resource-limited nations, strategizing the coordinated response to handle this crisis effectively and preparing for the upcoming emergence of calamity caused by this yet-to-know disease entity.Relevant epidemiological data were retrieved from currently available online reports related to COVID-19 patients. The correlation coefficient was calculated by plotting dependant variables - the number of COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths due to COVID 19 on the Y-axis and independent variables - critical-care beds per capita, the median age of the population of the country, the number of COVID-19 tests per million population, population density (persons per square km), urban population percentage, and gross domestic product (GDP) expense on health care - on the X-axis.After analyzing the data, both the fatality rate and the total number of COVID-19 cases were found to have an inverse association with the population density with the variable - the number of cases of COVID-19 - achieving a statistical significance (p-value 0.01). The negative correlation between critical care beds and the fatality rate is well-justified, as intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators are the critical elements in the management of complicated cases. There was also a significant positive correlation between GDP expenses on healthcare by a country and the number of COVID-19 cases being registered (p-value 0.008), although that did not affect mortality (p-value 0.851).This analysis discusses the overview of various epidemiological determinants possibly contributing to the variation in patient outcomes across regions and helps improve our understanding to develop a plan of action and effective control measures in the future.