Total Inflation Research Articles

Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World

The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in inflation around the world, reflecting rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices exacerbated by the Russian war on Ukraine. As illustrated in figure 1, this inflation surge was synchronized across advanced and emerging economies, not only for total inflation but also for its core component.

Exploring inflation dynamics in Canada: A threshold vector autoregressive approach

Given the pivotal role of inflation expectations in contemporary monetary policy, we posit that if monetary policy has effectively influenced inflation expectations, thereby altering the trajectory of total inflation, a structural break in the path of total inflation should be observable. Conversely, if inflation expectations have remained stable and monetary policy has had limited impact, a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model should adequately describe the path of total inflation. To address these hypotheses, a non-linear specification of a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed, offering a comprehensive analytical framework for the examination of these dynamics.

Protecting occupant in autonomous vehicle accident with rotating seat and belt airbag

In autonomous vehicle, since that occupants no long need to operate the vehicle, they will have time to relax and entertain or communicate with other people. In order to improve the collision safety of the occupants who move freely and have different seat orientation angles in autonomous vehicle, a protection strategy based on the cooperative control of the rotating seat and belt airbag to avoid occupant injuries is proposed: in the pre-crash phase, the occupant on a rotated seat is repositioned into a close-to-standard frontal facing position, while the belt airbag deploys; in the crash phase, the fully deployed belt airbag cushions and absorbs occupant impact with the support of the occupant’s legs to reduce injury. Firstly, the current prediction time for unavoidable collisions in self-driving cars is about 350 ms, therefore, the airbag can be inflated by enlarging the inflation duration to reduce its impact during deployment. Due to the fixed installation position of the dashboard airbag, which cannot accompany the deficiency of seat movement, a new type of belt airbag is designed; Then, the simulation models of ±45° and ±90° seat orientation were established to study the injury mechanism and kinematic response of occupants with different seat orientations in frontal crashes; Finally, the simulation models of active rotating seat with belt airbag were established to study the kinematic response and injury risk of occupants with rotating seat and belt airbag protection strategy. The belt airbag with a capacity of 65 L developed in this paper could effectively protect occupants in a frontal collision at an inflation time of 200 ms and a total inflation mass of 31.4 g; The occupant safety strategy based on rotating seat and belt airbag can effectively reduce the risk of collision injury of occupants with different seat orientations in autonomous vehicle.

The Onset, Middle, and Climax of Precursory Hydrothermal Intrusion of the 2018 Phreatic Eruption at Kusatsu‐Shirane Volcano

AbstractTriggering intrusions of phreatic eruptions are often observed as seismic and ground deformation signals on a time scale of minutes. The current understanding of hydrothermal intrusions still needs improvement to obtain insight into the eruption scale from the observables. We examine local geophysical data from the precursory hydrothermal intrusion of the 2018 phreatic eruption of Kusatsu‐Shirane volcano. To achieve an integrated intrusion model, we divide analyzing time window into the onset, middle, and climax. Focusing on the transient response of tilt data for the sudden pressurization, we estimate a vertical tensile opening (1.7 × 103 m3/s in 40 s) at 1.1 km depth for the intrusion onset. Pressurization can represent the start of vapourization. Very long period (VLP, 0.033–0.1 Hz) seismic signals are adopted to constrain the middle and climax phases. We obtained two sequential semi‐horizontal tensile crack oscillation sources with peak volume changes of 3.6 × 104–1.9 × 105 m3 at 0.3–0.6 km depths. The second VLP source acted as a final trigger of the eruption to cause depressurization in the shallow portion of the intruded region, which is constrained as having reached 0.1 km depth by surface deformation. Simultaneously, we find another depressurization originated from depth in the climax due to a decrease in the hydrothermal intrusion rate. Through comparison with the 2014 Ontake phreatic eruption, the total inflation volume may correlate with eruption scales. Intruded hydrothermal fluid and local structure characteristics also may have to be considered to evaluate the eruptions scales from inferred signal source intensity.

Impact of prolonged drug-coated balloon inflation on residual stenosis and clinical outcomes in coronary artery disease patients: A propensity score matched analysis.

There is a paucity of data regarding the optimal duration of drug-coated balloon (DCB) inflation for coronary lesions. We sought to explore the effect of DCB angioplasty with versus without long inflation time on residual stenosis and clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease. This study included 314 consecutive patients with 445 lesions undergoing paclitaxel DCB angioplasty using different inflation time, divided according to whether the total inflation time of the DCB was ≥180 s (prolonged group) or <180 s (standard group). The primary clinical endpoint, defined as a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or target lesion revascularization, was examined in 92 propensity score matched pairs. In the matched cohort, the median clinical follow-up period was 947 days. Postprocedural angiographic diameter stenosis was smaller in the prolonged group than in the standard group (30.0% [22.0-37.0] vs. 33.5% [25.5-40.5]; p = 0.042). Intravascular ultrasound measurements revealed that longer DCB inflation time resulted in smaller area stenosis (66.6 ± 7.8% vs. 69.4 ± 7.0%; p = 0.044) and a less mean increase in percent atheroma volume (-11.2 ± 7.1% vs. -7.4 ± 5.9%; p = 0.004) after angioplasty. The rate of the primary endpoint was lower in the prolonged group than in the standard group (log-rank p = 0.025). The efficacy of prolonged DCB inflation was prominent in patients with in-stent restenosis and longer lesions. Prolonged DCB inflation was associated with reduced residual stenosis and improved clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Prospective randomized trials are warranted to validate the benefits of DCB angioplasty with long inflation time.

Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. consumer groups that vary by age, race, sex, education, and urban status. Black consumers and college graduates experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as high school dropouts, rural consumers, and consumers over 60. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, drove sizable differences in import price inflation – and total inflation – across groups.

ÇEKİRDEK, GIDA VE ENERJİ ENFLASYONLARINDA KALICILIĞIN ARAŞTIRILMASI: ZAMANLA DEĞİŞEN YAKLAŞIMDAN BİR KANIT

This study examines how inflation persistence evolves over time in Euro Area, the UK, the US and OECD countries over the period of 1999:07-2021:09. We consider the persistence of core, energy, and food inflation, as well total inflation. Using an ARMA(1,1) model with time-varying autoregressive parameters based on the Kalman filter (TV-AR), we find that inflation persistence increases significantly during crisis periods and total persistence peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the persistence of energy inflation decreases due to the economic slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results highlight how inflation persistence is related to the objectives and conduct of monetary policy. The findings indicate that the various measures taken by the governments such as containment and closure policies, travel restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 cause to increase in total and food inflation persistences. Energy inflation persistence declines due to a slowdown in production during the COVID-19 period.

Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group

The influence of recent global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war on the variability of major macroeconomic trends not only shows synchronized behavior across economies but also induces similar policy responses to counter these shocks. The purpose of this article is to explore the transmission of inflation among the G20 economies and evaluate its contribution to domestic inflation. To this end, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover approach. The results that emerge from unconditional analysis reveal stark dissimilarities in inflation spillover patterns between advanced and emerging economies. Advanced economies are subject to higher spillover rates and thereby more exposed to global shocks compared to their emerging counterparts. Inflation in emerging countries is mainly derived from idiosyncratic shocks, while global shocks have only a modest influence on domestic inflation. In addition, bilateral spillovers among the G20 members show that the average pairwise directional spillovers between emerging economies are lower compared to advanced economies. The results pertaining to the spillover dynamics, on the other hand, show that total inflation spillover has a clear upward trend, indicating that the overall interconnectedness between G20 countries is increasing over time. Moreover, the estimates of spillover dynamics show a growing influence of received inflation spillovers from external shocks in both advanced and emerging economies. Policymakers in advanced economies are expected to respond to global shocks to mitigate the influence of spillovers, which is essential for economies that display high spillovers and turn out to be net receivers of shocks. However, public agencies in emerging economies should concentrate more on internal shocks to control inflation while not ignoring global shocks.

Emergency Department Presentations of Acute Primary Angle Closure in the United States from 2008 to 2017.

PurposeAcute primary angle closure (APAC) is an ophthalmologic emergency. Nationwide data on the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of APAC are lacking despite the associated visual morbidity.Patients and MethodsA retrospective cross-sectional study using the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS). The NEDS was queried by ICD-9/10 code for cases of APAC presenting to the United States emergency departments over a ten-year period from 2008 to 2017. All identified cases were included to produce nationally representative estimates. Linear regression and seasonality tests were used to identify trends. Reported outcomes include the incidence, demographics, seasonality, and economic impact of APAC regionally and nationwide.ResultsA total of 23,203 APAC-related ED visits were identified. The mean (SD) and median ages were 58.8 (16.2) and 60 years, respectively. Females (59.4%, p < 0.01), those in the lowest income quartile (6983, 30.1%, p < 0.01), and those in the seventh decade of life (5599, 24.1%) presented more frequently with APAC. The incidence of ED presentations within each age group rose with age and increased significantly over the study period (p < 0.01). The Northeast region had the highest average incidence (0.93 per 100,000 population). Significant seasonal variation was seen regionally and nationally (p < 0.01), with the highest average incidence in December and lowest in April. Median inflation adjusted charge per ED visit was $2496.10, and the total inflation adjusted charges equaled $101.5 million.ConclusionThe incidence of APAC-related ED visits continues to rise in the United States. High-risk groups include women, individuals of low socioeconomic status, and those between ages 50 and 70. Significant seasonal and regional trends were observed in ED presentations of APAC.

Rentals for Housing: A Property Fixed-Effects Estimator of Inflation from Administrative Data

Abstract Official rentals for housing (rent) price inflation statistics are of considerable public interest. Matched-sample estimators, such as that used for nearly two-decades in New Zealand (2000–2019), require an unrealistic assumption of a static universe of rental properties. This article investigates (1) a property fixed-effects estimator that better reflects the dynamic universe of rental properties by implicitly imputing for price change associated with new and disappearing rental properties; (2) length-alignment simulations and property life-cycle metrics to inform the choice of data window length (eight years) and preferred splice methodology (mean-splice); and (3) stock-imputation to convert administrative data from a ‘flow’ (new tenancy price) to ‘stock’ (currently paid rent) concept. The derived window-length sensitivity findings have important implications for inflation measurement. It was found that the longer the data window used to fit the model, the greater the estimated rate of inflation. Using administrative data, a range of estimates from 55% (window length: three-quarters) to 127% (window of 90-quarters) were found for total inflation, over the 25-years to 2017 Q4.

An Investigation on the Impacts of Fuel Carrier Price on the Consumer Price Inflation in Iran

Introduction: Oil is one of the primary commodities of all countries globally and is, in essence, the energy base of all that we know as transportation. Therefore, price fluctuations of derivatives, especially fuel and oil derivatives, are the policymakers’ main concerns because they can cause serious problems, such as inflation in commodity prices. Objective: The impact of fuel carriers’ prices on the consumer price index remains a subject of debate and research. This paper aims to develop a model to define the inflation regime in Iran and then investigate the impact of gasoline and diesel price on the total inflation rate. Method: In this study, using the central bank time series and available data on energy balance and World Bank data banks, a non-linear distributed online delay regression model is developed to analyze the relationship between fuel price and essential commodity inflation. Results: The results show that there is an impact of gasoline prices on inflation. It does not have much effect in the long term, but diesel can somewhat influence raising prices, which can exacerbate poverty in the community that needs special attention. Conclusion: It was also found that increase in diesel’s price is harmful to the economy because it can stimulate inflation in the long term. However, in the short term, diesel does not cause any significant inflation in the prices. While gasoline prices can have many short-term social effects, this paper suggests that the Iranian government's control of diesel fuel prices prevents long-term inflation and inflation in consumer price rate.

National Hospitalization Trends and the Role of Preventable Hospitalizations among Centenarians in the United States (2000-2009).

Increases in life expectancy mean that an unprecedented number of individuals are reaching centenarian status, often with complex health concerns. We analyzed nationally representative hospital admissions data (200–2009) from the National Inpatient Study (NIS) for 52,618 centenarians (aged 100–115 years, mean age 101.4). We predicted length of stay (LOS) via negative binomial models and total inflation adjusted costs via fixed effects regression analysis informed by descriptive data. We also identified hospitalizations due to ambulatory care-sensitive conditions defined by AHRQ Prevention Quality Indicators. Mean LOS decreased from 6.1 to 5.1 days, while over the same time period the mean total adjusted charges rose from USD 13,373 to USD 25,026 in 2009 dollars. Black, Hispanic, Asian, or other race centenarians had higher cost stays compared to White, but only Black and Hispanic centenarians had significantly greater mean length of stay. Comorbidities predicted greater length of stay and higher costs. Centenarians admitted on weekends had higher costs but shorter length of stay. In total, 29.4% of total costs were due to potentially preventable hospitalizations for total charges (2000–2009) of USD 341.8M in 2009 dollars. Centenarian hospitalizations cost significantly more than hospitalization for any other group of elderly in the U.S.

Understanding Trend Inflation Through The Lens of The Goods and Services Sectors

Monetary policy is largely concerned with managing the part of inflation that is persistent (or permanent), a quantity often referred to as trend inflation. For example, a casual reading of any monetary policy report from the Federal Reserve Board will make it clear that, in addition to total (or headline) inflation, the Federal Reserve also focuses on underlying (or core) measures of inflation that exclude more volatile components such as food and energy prices. This strategy is based on the belief that fluctuations in components such as food and energy prices are ultimately temporary and, consequently, should be excluded from monetary policy considerations about the long-run path of inflation. Trend inflation is thus closely related to the concept of core inflation, since both measures provide a reading on inflation without the transient “noise” that is expected to fade in the short run. A more recent development is that goods and services—the two main sectors used to measure inflation—have been experiencing considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics. To do so, we develop an empirical framework that accounts for historical changes in the volatility and comovement of trend inflation in the goods and services sectors for the US. Our main finding is that, while both sectors used to contribute to the overall variation in aggregate trend inflation, since the 1990s variations in trend inflation have been almost entirely dominated by the services sector. Two changes in sector-specific inflation dynamics drive our key result: (i) a large fall in the variance of trend inflation in the goods sector; and (ii) the disappearance of comovement between the two sectors. We document similar findings when extending our analysis to Australia and Canada, suggesting our results are not US-specific.

Inflasi dan Mobilitas Masyarakat di Masa Pandemi Covid-19

This study aims to analyze the correlation between the inflation rate by expenditure group and the level of community mobility based on the location of visits in West Java during the Covid-19 pandemic. The research method used is the quantitative method through descriptive analysis and correlation analysis. This study uses secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Google Mobility Report. The results of this study explain that the total inflation rate has a strong correlation with people's mobility to the central location of the economy. Inflation of primary commodities found in the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco group and the Housing, Electricity, and Fuel group has a weak correlation with the level of community mobility. The results of this study can be used as a basis for policymakers in the context of controlling inflation and capturing phenomena that occur related to restrictions on mobility during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Dynamic Linear Interdependence between International Trade and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria: A Vector Error Correction Modelling.

Causal relationships are often treated erroneously in isolation as a single equation without the consideration of the endogeneity of right-hand side variables and also without recourse to the presence of coco-integration. This study modelled and estimated the dynamic linear interdependence between international trade and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to, establish the trend of the study variables, model and estimate the interdependence existing among total export, total import, exchange rate, and inflation rate, determine the significant causalities and summarize the causal channels among the study variables. The study used the quasi-experimental design. The study used monthly time series data which span from January, 2000 to June, 2019. The data on all the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Appropriate models were specified in line with the objectives. The study used the Vector Error Correction Models, the pre and post-diagnostic tests were also conducted. The unit root test results showed that the variables were integrated of order one [I(1)]. The co-integration test results showed 1 co-integrating equation and VAR lag length selection criteria choose lag 2. The Vector Error Correction Result showed that inflation rate was the most explained by variations in the independent variables (R2 =73.4%) while exchange Rate was the least explained (R2 =18.8%), the total export model had R2 =53.8% and total import model had (R2 =59.2%. Significant bi-directional causality was found between total export and inflation rate, and also between total import and inflation rate. There was also significant joint causality on total import and also on exchange rate. The post test showed that the models were stable. It was recommended that the right-hand side variables should be tested for endogeneity before concluding on single or system equation. It was also recommended that policies to check inflation rate should consider possibility of shocks to international trade.

Reliable Estimates of Power Delivery During Mechanical Ventilation Utilizing Easily Obtained Bedside Parameters.

Ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) requires repetitive transfer of energy from the ventilator to the compromised lung. To understand this phenomenon, 2 sets of equations have been developed to partition total inflation energy into harmless and hazardous components using an arbitrary level of alveolar pressure as a threshold beyond which further energy increments may become damaging. One set of equations uses premeasured resistance and compliance as inputs to predict the energy that would be delivered by typical ventilator settings, whereas the other equation set uses observed output values for end-inspiratory peak and plateau pressure of an already completed inflation. Our aim for this study was to compare the relative accuracy of these equation sets against the performance of a physical one-compartment model of the respiratory system, programmed with information readily available at the bedside and ventilated using both constant and decelerating flow profiles. Accordingly, equations of each set were compared against the corresponding energy areas measured by digital planimetry of pressure-volume curves for 76 ventilator and patient parameter combinations and over 500 power calculations. With few exceptions, all equations strongly correlated with their corresponding measurements by planimetry. This validation of threshold-partitioned energy equations suggests their potential utility for implementing practical strategies for VILI avoidance.

Inframammary Fold Approach for Second-stage Operation in Expander-Implant Breast Reconstruction.

Despite expander-based breast reconstruction being used as a reliable reconstruction method, implant removal due to wound dehiscence and infection still occurs in 0.5% to 15% of cases. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of the new inframammary fold (IMF) incision approach with previous incision in second-stage operation of expander-based 2-stage breast reconstruction. Patients who underwent expander-based 2-stage breast reconstruction between February 2014 and May 2019 were included. After expander inflation, patients undergoing second-stage reconstruction were divided into the previous incision and IMF incision groups and their outcomes were compared. Propensity score matching analysis was performed to compare postoperative 1-year results. The previous incision and IMF incision groups comprised 79 and 31 patients, respectively. There were no intergroup differences in general demographics or intraoperative data, except for total inflation volume (426.87 ± 102.63 mL in the previous incision group and 375.48 ± 94.10 mL in the IMF incision group, P = 0.017). Wound dehiscence occurred in 12 and 0 cases in the previous and IMF incision groups, respectively (P = 0.018). Implant removal was performed due to dehiscence in 9 cases (8.18%) and 0 cases (0%) in the previous and IMF incision groups, respectively (P = 0.049). In 1-to-1 propensity score matching analysis, the IMF incision group showed better results at 1-year follow-up (odds ratio: 0, 95% confidence interval: 0-1.09; P = 0.063). The IMF approach is a safe method for replacing the expander with an implant, with lower incidence of wound dehiscence and implant explantation.

Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level

Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocks on inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explained by changes in oil price. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation drives this effect. We also find that, under the most likely scenarios, 1-year ahead total inflation will be moderate, with relevant differences across regions.

Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used, and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.