Total Grain-size Distribution Research Articles

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF VOLCANIC ASH DISTRIBUTION DUE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN JAVA ISLAND

Abstract. Indonesia is located on the Ring of Fire with the most geologically active than any other countries, which makes it vulnerable due to the massive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Java Island has the most active volcano with high risks such as human risk and infrastructure from volcanic ash because of volcanic eruptions. The availability of the map of potential volcanic hazards is important to help mitigate the risk caused by volcanic eruptions. However, to the best of the author's knowledge, the distribution of volcanic ash has never been assessed in detail in the disaster-prone hazard map published by the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Indonesia. This research reported the potential distribution of volcanic ash due to volcanic eruptions in the future in Java island. Following the principles of Probabilistic Hazard Assessment and TephraProb software, the modeling of volcanic ash potential was performed using various parameters such as historical data, eruption source parameter, total grain-size distribution, tephra2 parameter, and the wind speed around the volcanoes as an input. The map shows the distribution of volcanic ash based on the volcanic ash accumulation (kg/m2) and the volcanic ash hazard map is classified into three classes. There are 19 models of volcanic ash distribution with various probabilities of exceedance based on 19 A-type volcanoes on Java Island. This volcano's distribution of volcanic ash tends to the southwest as the wind speed and direction.

Tephra sedimentation and grainsize associated with pulsatory activity: the 2021 Tajogaite eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain)

Long-lasting eruptions are of complex characterization and are typically associated with challenging risk assessment and crisis management due to the usual occurrence of multiple interacting hazards evolving at different temporal and spatial scales (e.g., lava, tephra, and gas). The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma) demonstrated how even hybrid events that are mostly effusive can be associated with widespread and impacting tephra deposits as a result of a complex interplay among gas flux, conduit geometry, and magma feeding rate. In this novel study, direct observations, syn-eruptive and post-eruptive sampling, and statistical analysis of pulsatory activity have been combined to provide new insights into eruption dynamics. They show how rapid gas segregation and high magma ascent rate modulated the gas flux at multiple vents, resulting in short-time fluctuations among the different explosive styles (ash-poor gas puffing, Strombolian, violent Strombolian, and lava fountaining) and unsteady tephra ground accumulation. Various size-selective sedimentation processes were also observed, including particle aggregation and ash fingers, which have impacted the overall tephra dispersal. In fact, even though both local and total grainsize distributions of selected layers, units, and of the whole tephra blanket are unimodal with a low fine-ash content, grainsize analysis of 154 samples suggests no correlation of particles <63 μm with distance from vents. Our analyses demonstrate the need to include a detailed characterization of all products of hybrid eruptions for a comprehensive interpretation of eruptive dynamics and to use multiple classification strategies that can capture eruptive styles at different temporal scales.

Forecasting and communicating the dispersion and fallout of ash during volcanic eruptions: lessons from the September 20, 2020 eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano, Ecuador

Volcanic ash is a hazard to human health and activities. Accurate and timely forecasts coupled with effective communication about the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash during explosive events are essential to reduce impacts on local communities and limit economic losses. In this study, we present the first detailed description of an eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano and its eruption source parameters. The eruptive pulse on September 20, 2020, started at about 9:20 UTC and lasted between 90 and 100 min, producing an eruptive column that rapidly separated into (1) a higher (15.2 km above sea level, asl), gas-rich cloud moving east-southeast and (2) a lower (12.2 km asl), ash-rich cloud moving west and causing ash fallout up to 280 km from the volcano. Field data collected immediately after the event allow estimating the volume of bulk tephra to be between 1.5 and 5.0 × 106 m3, corresponding to a volcanic explosivity index of 2. The eruptive pulse, identified as violent Strombolian, emitted andesitic ash that was more mafic than products ejected by Sangay volcano in recent decades. Component analysis and glass chemistry of juvenile particles support the hypothesis that this event excavated deeper into the upper conduit compared to typical Strombolian activity at Sangay volcano, while grain-size analysis allows reconstruction of the total grain-size distribution of the fallout deposit. The discrepancies between the ash fallout simulations performed with the Ash3D online tool and the actual deposit are mainly the result of inaccurate pre- and syn-eruptive configurations and highlight the importance of additional processes such as aggregation. Communication products issued during the event included (1) several standard short reports, (2) volcano observatory notices for aviation, (3) social media posts, and (4) a special report providing the results of the ash fallout simulation. Although communication was effective with the authorities and the connected population, an effort must be made to reach the most vulnerable isolated communities for future events. This study shows that forecasting ash dispersion and fallout during volcanic eruptions can guide early warnings and trigger humanitarian actions, and should become a standard in volcano observatories worldwide.

In-conduit capture of sub-micron volcanic ash particles via turbophoresis and sintering

Ash emission in explosive silicic eruptions can have widespread impacts for human health, agriculture, infrastructure, and aviation. Estimates of the total grainsize distribution (TGSD) generated during explosive magma fragmentation underpins eruption models and ash dispersal forecasts. Conventionally, the TGSD constrained via erupted deposits is assumed to match the TGSD produced at explosive fragmentation. Here we present observations from within the vent of a recent rhyolitic eruption (Cordón Caulle, Chile, 2011–2012), demonstrating that fine (<63 μm diameter) and ultra-fine (<2.5 μm diameter) ash particles are captured and sintered to fracture surfaces, and thus sequestered in the shallow subsurface, rather than emitted. We establish a conceptual model—uniquely contextualised through a combination of syn-eruptive observations and detailed post-eruption field investigation—in which turbophoresis (particle migration towards zones of lower turbulence) and rapid sintering create an inverse relationship between particle size and the probability of its subsurface capture. Such size-dependent capture efficiency preferentially removes submicron-diameter ash from the erupted componentry, decoupling the erupted size distribution from magmatic source conditions and potentially playing an important role in modulating eruption dynamics.

Using Eruption Source Parameters and High-Resolution Grain-Size Distributions of the 7.7 ka Cleetwood Eruption of Mount Mazama (Oregon, United States) to Reveal Primary and Secondary Eruptive Processes

Numerical simulations of real-time volcanic ash dispersal forecasts and ensuing tephra hazard assessments rely on field-derived Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) such as plume height, erupted volume, mass eruption rate and the Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) of particles ejected from a volcano into the atmosphere. Here we calculate ESPs for the ∼7.7 ka Cleetwood eruption of Mount Mazama (Crater Lake/giiwas, Oregon, United States) that immediately preceded the caldera-forming eruption. We also introduce a novel approach to produce high-resolution grain-size distributions (GSDs) of individual samples over a wide range of particle sizes (0.00035–35 mm) by combining laser diffraction with dynamic image analysis. Detailed field analysis allows us to divide the Cleetwood eruptive sequence into a series of two distinct and consecutive VEI 4 eruptions: the lower (∼0.98 km3) and upper (∼0.20 km3) Cleetwood units. The lower Cleetwood was the most intense with a plume height of ∼19 km and an average mass discharge rate of ∼3.1 × 107 kg s−1. Its TGSD yields a fractal dimension D∼3.1, like other similar eruptions. All twelve high-resolution GSDs produced in this study exhibit two systematic breaks in slope from a power-law relationship at ∼0.125 and ∼0.510 mm. These breaks in slope create three segments: S1 (&amp;lt;0.125 mm), S2 (0.125–0.510 mm), and S3 (&amp;gt;0.510 mm) that can be fit by power-law relationships with fractal dimensions of D1 = 2.5 ± 0.2, D2 = 0.5 ± 0.1, and D3 = 3.6 ± 1.1, respectively. Together with ESPs and detailed componentry, D values at various locations give insight into magma fragmentation and tephra transport. We find that D1 values are positively correlated with the median grain-size and are similar to values found in rapid decompression magma fragmentation experiments. We infer that D1 values reflect the size distribution of the primary products of magma fragmentation and could thus be used to infer the potential energy at fragmentation. We interpret the relatively low values of D2 to an increase in dense components due to particle rafting. Our work shows that comparing high-resolution GSDs at several locations on the dispersal axis can further constrain primary and secondary eruptive processes, which prove crucial to improving tephra hazard assessments and dispersal forecasting.

Examples of Multi-Sensor Determination of Eruptive Source Parameters of Explosive Events at Mount Etna

Multi-sensor strategies are key to the real-time determination of eruptive source parameters (ESPs) of explosive eruptions necessary to forecast accurately both tephra dispersal and deposition. To explore the capacity of these strategies in various eruptive conditions, we analyze data acquired by two Doppler radars, ground- and satellite-based infrared sensors, one infrasound array, visible video-monitoring cameras as well as data from tephra-fallout deposits associated with a weak and a strong paroxysmal event at Mount Etna (Italy). We find that the different sensors provide complementary observations that should be critically analyzed and combined to provide comprehensive estimates of ESPs. First, all measurements of plume height agree during the strong paroxysmal activity considered, whereas some discrepancies are found for the weak paroxysm due to rapid plume and cloud dilution. Second, the event duration, key to convert the total erupted mass (TEM) in the mass eruption rate (MER) and vice versa, varies depending on the sensor used, providing information on different phases of the paroxysm (i.e., unsteady lava fountaining, lava fountain-fed tephra plume, waning phase associated with plume and cloud expansion in the atmosphere). As a result, TEM and MER derived from different sensors also correspond to the different phases of the paroxysms. Finally, satellite retrievals for grain-size can be combined with radar data to provide a first approximation of total grain-size distribution (TGSD) in near real-time. Such a TGSD shows a promising agreement with the TGSD derived from the combination of satellite data and whole deposit grain-size distribution (WDGSD).

Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy)

The quantification of the maximum runout, invaded area, volume, and total grain-size distribution (TGSD) of pyroclastic density currents (PDC) is a critically important task because such parameters represent the needed necessary input quantities for physical modeling and hazard assessment of PDCs. In this work, new and well-established methods for the quantification of these parameters are applied to a large stratigraphic dataset of three PDC units from two eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius (the AD 79 Pompeii and the AD 472 Pollena eruptions), representative of a large spectrum of transport and depositional processes. Maximum runout and invaded area are defined on the basis of the available volcanological and topographical constraints. The related uncertainties are evaluated with an expert judgment procedure, which considersed the different sectors of the volcano separately. Quite large uncertainty estimates of dispersal area (20–40%) may have important implications in terms of hazard assessment. The testing of different methods for estimating the volume (and mass) of a PDC deposit suggests that integration, over the invaded area, of thickness (and deposit density) data using the triangulated irregular network method can minimize and localize data extrapolation. Such calculations, however, bear an intrinsic additional uncertainty (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit) related to loss or new formation of fine material during transport (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit). Different interpolation methods for TGSD produce multimodal distributions, likely reflecting the different response of each grain size class to transport and deposition processes. These data, when integrated with information on the related co-ignimbrite deposits, can give a more accurate picture of the pyroclastic mixture feeding the current.

Operational Response to Volcanic Ash Risks Using HOTVOLC Satellite-Based System and MOCAGE-Accident Model at the Toulouse VAAC

In 2010, the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, generating an ash cloud causing unprecedented disruption of European airspace. Despite an exceptional situation, both the London and Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) provided critical information on the location of the cloud and on the concentration of ash, thus contributing to the crisis management. Since then, substantial efforts have been carried out by the scientific community in order to improve remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling. Satellite instruments have proven to be particularly relevant for the characterization of ash cloud properties and a great help in the operational management of volcanic risk. In this study, we present the satellite-based system HOTVOLC developed at the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC) using Meteosat geostationary satellite and designed for real-time monitoring of active volcanoes. After a brief presentation of the system we provide details on newly developed satellite products dedicated to the ash cloud characterization. This includes, in particular, ash cloud altitude and vertical column densities (VCD). Then, from the Stromboli 2018 paroxysm, we show how HOTVOLC can be used in a timely manner to assist the Toulouse VAAC in the operational management of the eruptive crisis. In the second part of the study, we provide parametric tests of the MOCAGE-Accident model run by the Toulouse VAAC from the April 17 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. For this purpose, we tested a range of eruption source parameters including the Total Grain Size Distribution (TGSD), the eruptive column profile, the top plume height and mass eruption rate (MER), as well as the fine ash partitioning. Finally, we make a comparison on this case study between HOTVOLC and MOCAGE-Accident VCD.

Model sensitivities in the case of high-resolution Eulerian simulations of local tephra transport and deposition

Tephra transport modelling has predominantly been carried out over synoptic-scale resolutions, resolving only fundamental atmospheric circulations. Consequently, model sensitivity studies have focused on these resolutions. In recent years, improved eruption source parameter (ESP) estimation methods and computational efficiency have progressively led to the use of higher resolutions to increase the fidelity of tephra transport simulations. This is a new computational regime whose model sensitivities remain largely unexplored. Here, high-resolution simulations using a 300 m horizontal grid spacing were carried out using WRF and FALL3D to assess sensitivity to: meteorological input data (using both reanalysis and forecast data), boundary layer parametrisation, plume model, settling velocity, total grain-size distribution (TGSD), and aggregation, leading to a total of 1280 possible configurations. An eruption that occurred on 28 July 2019 at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is used as a case study, as the northwards dispersal of a 3.8 km-high plume led to the temporary closure of Kagoshima airport. Sedimentation was observed at three optical disdrometers on the volcano, providing insight on the deposition timing and particle size distribution. Results reveal that meteorological input data can have a significant impact over the fidelity of the simulations, with errors changing over one order of magnitude depending on the initialisation dataset. This was found to be the result of local bias in the simulated wind fields over the region of dispersal, which was not represented in the domain-wide assessment of the WRF simulations. Ensemble simulations using different meteorological input data were found to mitigate this, significantly increasing the fidelity of the final ensemble product. Use of a plume model and the correct estimation of the TGSD were seen to significantly improve results. Finally, even with detailed data to inform the choice, use of an empirical aggregation scheme was seen to significantly degrade the accuracy of the simulations.

Influence of particle aggregation on the tephra dispersal and sedimentation from the October 8, 2016, eruption of Aso volcano

The phreatomagmatic eruption at Aso volcano on October 8, 2016, released PDC and fallout up to 320 km from the vent, providing an opportunity to study the dispersal and sedimentation of tephra bearing wet and dry aggregates. We investigated fresh air-fall tephra and conducted both dry- and wet-sieving to assess the size distribution of both aggregate-bearing deposits on the ground and particles in the plume prior to aggregation. The tephra was asymmetrically distributed in the ENE direction, with a relatively wide distribution and small maximum grain sizes north of the depositional axis, reflecting different wind directions at each altitude. The secondary accumulation maxima at 4–8 km NE from the vent was characterized by the segregation of lapilli followed by accretionary pellets that were rapidly created by aggregation in the wet plume, thereby enhancing the removal of airborne ash. Coalesced aggregates possibly arose from salt precipitation processes. For dry aggregates fallen in medial-to-distal regions, observed deposition duration and fall velocity calculations concluded that fine ash was deposited not as individual particles but as aggregates. Most grain-size distributions along the dispersal axis based on the two sieving methods used were multimodal, with the coarser mode fining according to distance from the vent and the finer mode stabilizing at around 4ϕ; this is interpreted as resulting from the mixture of grain-size distributions with different origins, i.e., the normal settling of individual clasts and particle aggregation. The wet-sieved total grain-size distribution included 20.4 wt% fine ash compared with only 2.4 wt% fine ash in the dry-sieved distribution, suggesting that aggregated particles accounted for 18 wt% of the deposit. Total grain-size distributions based on wet-sieving showed extremely poor sorting that could be explained by the following causes: the release of coarse-grained ejecta originating from the host rock of the crater, fine particles due to fragmentation from a phreatomagmatic eruption, the supply of water and salt from the crater to the plume, and aggregation enhancement of the fine ash on the ground, reflecting the effect of the crater lake as external water source.

Total grain size distribution of components of fallout deposits and implications for magma fragmentation mechanisms: examples from Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

In this paper, we present results of the reconstruction of the total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the material erupted during explosive volcanic eruptions at Campi Flegrei (Italy) considering all components (juvenile, lithic and crystal clasts). To date, the few TGSDs made available have been mostly reconstructed by assuming that the tephra deposits consisted of only one component. This simplification can introduce substantial bias in the interpretation of magma fragmentation mechanisms and significantly affect ash dispersion forecasts, since each tephra component has specific aerodynamic characteristics. By means of field investigations and laboratory analyses on samples collected from deposits of the Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni eruptions, we reconstructed the TGSDs of juvenile, lithic and crystal components via the Voronoi tessellation method. Our results show how the systematic reconstruction of a TGSD, from the component-specific to the bulk TGSD, can provide important information on magma fragmentation mechanisms and wall-rock erosion processes. Results confirm that the bulk TGSD is the combination of the merging of different component subpopulations, according to their own TGSD, density and relative mass proportions. In addition, the integration of component analysis, TGSD and settling velocity data allowed characterization of the aerodynamic behaviour of each component at variable distances from the vent, which can be related to their own parent grain size distribution. The integration of new data from distal tephra deposits for the considered eruptions has thus allowed a reassessment of the erupted volumes of eruptions considered in this research, which are now 3.17 and 0.63 km3, for Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni, respectively.

Characterizing magma fragmentation and its relationship with eruptive styles of Somma-Vesuvius volcano (Naples, Italy)

Among the active volcanoes worldwide, Somma-Vesuvius is one with the highest volcanic risk as the surrounding areas are highly populated. Somma-Vesuvius is quiescent since 1944, but geological and historical records reveal a frequent violent explosive activity in the last 4000 years, representing a severe risk for the ∼700,000 inhabitants currently living in the area having a high probability for being impacted by pyroclastic density currents (“red zone”) and more than one million people who can be potentially affected by tephra fallout. This study aims to analyze the distribution and grain-size of tephra fallout deposits from several Somma-Vesuvius eruptions of different styles, ranging from Violent Strombolian to sub-Plinian and Plinian, for characterizing the associated magmatic fragmentation through the assessment of their total grain-size distribution (TGSD). Chronologically, we focus on the Avellino (4365 BP) and Pompeii (A.D. 79) Plinian eruptions, the Pollena (A.D. 472) sub-Plinian eruption, and the 1906 and 1944 Violent Strombolian eruptions. The related TGSDs were estimated by means of the Voronoi tessellation method, which requires a suitable number of local grain-size distributions and estimation of the area of minimum tephra loading (zero-line contour). However, field-derived TGSDs can be biased towards the coarse and fine grain-size populations due to the typical paucity of available field outcrops of fallout deposits. To encompass this issue, we performed a sensitivity study on the assumption behind TGSD reconstructions and described TGSDs through analytical grain-size distributions that best fit the field TGSDs. Our main objective is a more robust estimation of the TGSDs associated with the different eruptive styles, which is crucial, together with the other eruption source parameters, for robustly predicting tephra loading and airborne ash dispersal of future eruptions at Somma-Vesuvius.

Experimental High-Resolution Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard at Sakurajima, Japan

A high-resolution forecast methodology for the ash hazard at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is presented. The methodology employs a combined modeling approach and utilizes eruption source parameters estimated by geophysical observations from Sakurajima, allowing for a proactive approach in forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast data over the area of interest. The high-resolution meteorological data are then used in FALL3D model to provide a forecast for the ash dispersal and deposition. The methodology is applied for an eruption that occurred on June 16, 2018. Disdrometer observations of ashfall are used along with ash dispersal modeling to inform the choice of the total grain size distribution (TGSD). A series of pseudo-forecast ash dispersal simulations are then carried out using the proposed methodology and estimated TGSD, initialized with meteorological forecast data released up to ∼13 hours before the eruption, with results showing surprising consistency up to ∼10 hours before the eruption. Using forecast data up to 4 hours before the eruption was seen to constrain observation to model ratios within a factor of 2–4 depending on the timing of simulation and location. A number of key future improvements for the methodology are also highlighted.

Reliability of Total Grain-Size Distribution of Tephra Deposits

Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) of tephra deposits is key to the characterization of explosive volcanism, plume-dispersal modeling, and magmatic fragmentation studies. Nonetheless, various aspects that includes deposit exposure and data fitting make its determination extremely complex and affect its representativeness. In order to shed some lights on the reliability of derived TGSDs, we examine a large TGSD dataset in combination with a sensitivity analysis of sampling strategies. These analyses are based both on a well-studied tephra deposit and on synthetic deposits associated with a variety of initial eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Results demonstrate that TGSDs can be satisfactorily fitted by four distributions (lognormal, Rosin-Rammler, and power-law based either on the absolute or cumulative number of particles) that capture different distribution features. In particular, the Rosin-Rammler distribution best reproduces both the median and the tails of the TGSDs. The accuracy of reconstructed TGSDs is strongly controlled by the number and distribution of the sampling points. We conclude that TGSDs should be critically assessed based on dedicated sampling strategies and should be fitted by one of the mentioned theoretical distributions depending on the specific study objective (e.g., tephra-deposit characterization, physical description of explosive eruptions, tephra-dispersal modeling).

Total grain size distribution of an intense Hawaiian fountaining event: case study of the 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption

The 1959 eruption of Kīlauea Iki on the Island of Hawai’i is a principal example of powerful Hawaiian fountaining. Over 36 days (including repose periods), 16 fountaining episodes created a small cone, a downwind tephra blanket of approximately 0.003 km3 and a lava lake of about 0.04 km3 volume. During the explosive activity, the maximum fountain heights reached 600 m. Based on a dataset of more than 450 tephra grain size samples, we present both a total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the entire downwind tephra deposit, and also TGSDs for two eruptive subunits (the opening and the closing stages). The opening stage was characterized by persistent fountaining over a period of 8 days with fountain heights averaging ∼ 100 m; in contrast, the closing stage was characterized by two short (hours-long) but powerful fountaining episodes (up to 600 m). The significantly different fountaining intensities are reflected in the characteristics of the TGSDs. For the closing stages, we link bimodality of TGSDs to periods of simultaneous deposition of ballistics and fallout from the convective cloud, both of which are a function of the maximum fountain height. The 1959 Kīlauea Iki case study presents a well-constrained set of TGSD data linked with Hawaiian-style fountaining of two contrasting intensities and can be used as a valuable reference point for eruption source parameters in future modeling of pyroclast dispersal during Hawaiian fountaining eruptions.

Linear inverse problem for inferring eruption source parameters from sparse ash deposit data as viewed from an atmospheric dispersion modeling perspective

Determination of the volcanic eruption source parameters—total grain-size distribution and vertical ash mass distribution (VMD) within the source—is carried out on a collection of measured-area samples and granulometry data. For this, the geophysical inverse methods and Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport Model (HYPACT) driven by wind and turbulence fields simulated with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) are used. A two-step inversion procedure is proposed to obtain approximate but physically meaningful solution when the total number of ashfall samples is small and it is not possible to make a good initial guess of the source parameters. First, a spectrum of particle fall velocities is estimated by selecting a best-fit subset of aerodynamically distinct subpopulations of free and aggregate particles from the trial set used to simulate a polycomponent ashfall. The singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then employed to identify spatial components of the ash emissions’ vertical distribution, as resolvable by the observations. Model validation experiments are conducted for the January 12, 2011, short-duration vulcanian explosion at Kizimen and paroxysmal phase of the December 24, 2006, sub-Plinian eruption at Bezymianny. The derived VMDs exhibit high variability in fine ash content (~ 60–100 wt%) as well as strong secondary maxima in the lower troposphere, likely reflecting the contribution of ash particles fallen out of co-pyroclastic flow ash clouds and partially collapsing eruption columns.

Modeling Eruption Source Parameters by Integrating Field, Ground‐Based, and Satellite‐Based Measurements: The Case of the 23 February 2013 Etna Paroxysm

AbstractVolcanic plumes from Etna volcano (Italy) are governed by easterly winds driving ash over the Ionian Sea. The limited land tephra deposit makes total grain‐size distribution (TGSD) assessment and its fine ash fraction highly uncertain. On 23 February 2013, a lava fountain produced a ~9‐km‐high column above sea level (a.s.l.). The atypical north‐easterly wind direction dispersed the tephra from Etna to the Puglia region (southern Italy) allowing sampling up to very distal areas. This study uses field measurements to estimate the field‐based TGSD. Very fine ash distribution (particle matter below 10 μm—PM10) is explored parameterizing the field‐TGSD through a bi‐lognormal and bi‐Weibull distribution. However, none of the two latter TGSDs allow simulating any far‐traveling airborne ash up to distal areas. Accounting for the airborne ash retrieved from satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), we proposed an empirical modification of the field‐based TGSD including very fine ash through a power law decay of the distribution. The input source parameters are inverted by comparing simulations against measurements. Results suggest a column height of ~8.7 km a.s.l., a total erupted mass of ~4.9 × 109 kg, a PM10 content between 0.4 and 1.3 wt%, and an aggregate fraction of ~2 wt% of the fine ash. Aerosol optical depth measurements from the AErosol RObotic NETwork are also used to corroborate the results at ~1,700 km from the source. Integrating numerical models with field, ground‐based, and satellite‐based data aims at providing a better TGSD estimation including very fine ash, crucial for air traffic safety.

A revisit of the role of gas entrapment on the stability conditions of explosive volcanic columns

Explosive volcanic eruptions produce high-velocity turbulent jets that can form either a stable buoyant Plinian column or a collapsing fountain producing pyroclastic density currents (PDC). Determining the source conditions leading to these extreme regimes is a major goal in physical volcanology. Classically, the regime boundary is defined as the critical eruptive mass discharge rate (MDR) before collapse for a given amount of free gas in the eruptive mixture (free gas + pyroclasts) at the vent. Previous studies have shown that an agreement between theory and field data can be achieved in two different frameworks: (i) by accounting for the effect of gas entrapment in large pumice fragments, which lowers the effective gas content, depending on the total grain-size distribution (TGSD) of pyroclastic fragments, or (ii) by accounting for the reduction of turbulent entrainment at the base of the volcanic column due to its negative buoyancy. Here, we aim at combining these two using a 1D model of volcanic column that includes sedimentation to follow the evolution of the TGSD. In powerful (≥ 107 kg s−1) Plinian eruptions, the loss of particles by sedimentation acts as to decrease the load of particles during the plume rise, which favors the formation of a stable column. In this case, we obtain that coarse TGSD promote the formation of stable plumes, a result at odds with the predictions of models considering gas entrapment in large pyroclastic fragments. To interpret this conclusion, we reconsider the effect of gas entrapment and show that in general, it has a dominant role on column collapse compared to particle sedimentation, and hinders the formation of buoyant columns. This drastic effect is reduced when incorporating open porosity, e.g. by considering that some bubbles inside a fragment are connected to the exterior. The characteristics of the PDC produced by column collapse are then predicted as a function of the TGSD and MDR at the source. We further test the model using two well-documented historical events, the ≈186 CE Taupo and 79 CE Vesuvius eruptions. Our model predictions are consistent with the Taupo eruption record, but not with the Vesuvius one. In this latter case, we suggest that the characteristics of the TGSD imply to take into account the thermal disequilibrium between gas and pyroclasts.

Total grain-size distribution of four subplinian–Plinian tephras from Hekla volcano, Iceland: Implications for sedimentation dynamics and eruption source parameters

The size distribution of the population of particles injected into the atmosphere during a volcanic explosive eruption, i.e., the total grain-size distribution (TGSD), can provide important insights into fragmentation efficiency and is a fundamental source parameter for models of tephra dispersal and sedimentation. Recent volcanic crisis (e.g. Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Iceland and Córdon Caulle 2011, Chile) and the ensuing economic losses, highlighted the need for a better constraint of eruption source parameters to be used in real-time forecasting of ash dispersal (e.g., mass eruption rate, plume height, particle features), with a special focus on the scarcity of published TGSD in the scientific literature. Here we present TGSD data associated with Hekla volcano, which has been very active in the last few thousands of years and is located on critical aviation routes. In particular, we have reconstructed the TGSD of the initial subplinian–Plinian phases of four historical eruptions, covering a range of magma composition (andesite to rhyolite), eruption intensity (VEI 4 to 5), and erupted volume (0.2 to 1km3). All four eruptions have bimodal TGSDs with mass fraction of fine ash (<63μm; m63) from 0.11 to 0.25. The two Plinian dacitic-rhyolitic Hekla deposits have higher abundances of fine ash, and hence larger m63 values, than their andesitic subplinian equivalents, probably a function of more intense and efficient primary fragmentation. Due to differences in plume height, this contrast is not seen in samples from individual sites, especially in the near field, where lapilli have a wider spatial coverage in the Plinian deposits. The distribution of pyroclast sizes in Plinian versus subplinian falls reflects competing influences of more efficient fragmentation (e.g., producing larger amounts of fine ash) versus more efficient particle transport related to higher and more vigorous plumes, displacing relatively coarse lapilli farther down the dispersal axis.

Reconstructing volcanic plume evolution integrating satellite and ground-based data: application to the 23 November 2013 Etna eruption

Abstract. Recent explosive volcanic eruptions recorded worldwide (e.g. Hekla in 2000, Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, Cordón-Caulle in 2011) demonstrated the necessity for a better assessment of the eruption source parameters (ESPs; e.g. column height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and total grain-size distribution – TGSD) to reduce the uncertainties associated with the far-travelling airborne ash mass. Volcanological studies started to integrate observations to use more realistic numerical inputs, crucial for taking robust volcanic risk mitigation actions. On 23 November 2013, Etna (Italy) erupted, producing a 10 km height plume, from which two volcanic clouds were observed at different altitudes from satellites (SEVIRI, MODIS). One was retrieved as mainly composed of very fine ash (i.e. PM20), and the second one as made of ice/SO2 droplets (i.e. not measurable in terms of ash mass). An atypical north-easterly wind direction transported the tephra from Etna towards the Calabria and Apulia regions (southern Italy), permitting tephra sampling in proximal (i.e. ∼ 5–25 km from the source) and medial areas (i.e. the Calabria region, ∼ 160 km). A primary TGSD was derived from the field measurement analysis, but the paucity of data (especially related to the fine ash fraction) prevented it from being entirely representative of the initial magma fragmentation. To better constrain the TGSD assessment, we also estimated the distribution from the X-band weather radar data. We integrated the field and radar-derived TGSDs by inverting the relative weighting averages to best fit the tephra loading measurements. The resulting TGSD is used as input for the FALL3D tephra dispersal model to reconstruct the whole tephra loading. Furthermore, we empirically modified the integrated TGSD by enriching the PM20 classes until the numerical results were able to reproduce the airborne ash mass retrieved from satellite data. The resulting TGSD is inverted by best-fitting the field, ground-based, and satellite-based measurements. The results indicate a total erupted mass of 1.2 × 109 kg, being similar to the field-derived value of 1.3 × 109 kg, and an initial PM20 fraction between 3.6 and 9.0 wt %, constituting the tail of the TGSD.