Total Fertilizer Use Research Articles

Statistical Modeling for Forecasting Fertilizer Consumption in India

Fertilizers have contributed significantly to increased agricultural yields, particularly for cereal crops and they will still be an important part of the science-based farming that is needed to feed the world's growing population. Fertilizers replenish the soil nutrients lost by the harvested crops, promote the use of high-yielding cultivars and boost biomass in tropical soils that are deficient in nutrients. In this study, data on fertilizer consumption in India was gathered from Agricultural Statistics at a Glance from 1950-51 to 2020-21 and utilized to fit the ARIMA model and forecast future usage. Forecasting has been done using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The ARIMA model is the most popular and widely applied forecasting model for time series data. The data was calculated using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions. R programming software was used to estimate model parameters. The performance of the fitted model was evaluated using various goodness of fit criteria, such as AIC, BIC and MAPE. Empirical results revealed that the ARIMA (1,2,1) model was best suited to forecasting India's future total fertilizer use. Similarly, the ARIMA model was fitted for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium consumption in India independently. Forecasts from 2021-22 to 2030-31 are calculated using the chosen model. By 2030-31, total fertilizer use is predicted to reach 32,058.55 thousand tonnes. Policymakers should preferably base their judgments on reliable forecasts in order to tighten policies and achieve outcomes. Predicting future events using an appropriate time series model will assist policymakers, marketing strategies in making decisions related to export/ import and developing appropriate fertilizer consumption strategies.

Greenhouse gas mitigation benefits and profitability of the GreenSeeker Handheld NDVI sensor: evidence from Mexico

Better targeting of fertilizer application can result in yields that meet or exceed those achieved without improved targeting while reducing total fertilizer use. However, in many growing regions, it may be difficult for farmers to access the necessary data to inform improved fertilizer use. The GreenSeeker Handheld is a low-cost technology that can be used to improve the efficiency of fertilizer applications by providing farmers with recommendations for the amount of nitrogen (N) to apply mid-season to meet the needs of their crops. The technology has been utilized on nearly 2,000 farmer fields representing more than 60,000 hectares in three regions of Mexico. In this study, the net effects of this technology on economic and environmental outcomes for these farmers were assessed. Specifically, farmer field-level data and locally derived greenhouse gas emission factors were analyzed and use of the GreenSeeker Handheld was estimated to have led to a total of $2.6 M USD in additional profits and more than 14,300 tons CO2e of avoided emissions. However, not all farmers utilizing this technology followed the resulting recommendations. Participating farmers that did not follow the recommendations experienced lower profits, indicating that benefits would have been larger had participants applied fertilizer at the levels recommended for their fields. In addition, the total benefits of higher farm profits and reduced emissions could be scaled up significantly if this technology were applied more broadly. However, development and implementation of the technology had been supported by subsidies and further efforts would be needed to make it sustainable.

The role of public agricultural extension services in driving fertilizer use in rice production in China

Fertilizer overuse causes serious environmental degradation, and it is important to identify the influencing factors of fertilizer use. To feed the largest population worldwide, China has adopted a productivity-led agricultural policy regime and established the largest public agricultural extension system. Given that China is the largest consumer of fertilizers, understanding the role of public agricultural extension services (PAES) in the context of the productivity-led agricultural policy regime can provide a new insight for policy-makers to take measures to reduce fertilizer use. Using survey data of 1002 rice farmers in 2018, this study employs the treatment-effect model to examine the effect of PAES adoption on fertilizer use and its heterogeneity. The results show that about 22% of rice farmers adopt PAES. After addressing the endogeneity issue, farmers' PAES adoption raises total fertilizer use, nitrogen fertilizer use and fertilizer expenditure in rice production by 242.96 kg/ha, 109.37 kg/ha and 1400 Chinese yuan per hectare (CNY/ha), respectively. The effects of PAES adoption on fertilizer use are heterogeneous in different provinces. These results indicate that moves should be directed towards altering the productivity-led agricultural policy regime, reinforcing the development of socialization agricultural service system, and altering the contents and approaches of agricultural extension services.

Can Increase in Productive Efficiency Mitigate Climate Impact on Agriculture in the South Asian Region?

South Asia is still a predominantly agrarian society, where a majority of the population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Rural poverty is higher than urban poverty, reflecting the heavy dependence on natural resources that are directly influenced by changes in weather and climate. The majority of South Asian agriculture is still based on a rain-fed system and is directly affected by climate change. The impacts of climate change on food production and food security in South Asia will vary by country, with many countries experience a decline in productivity. This paper examines the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the role of efficiency increment as an adaptation strategy for climate change in South Asia. First, a stochastic production frontier was estimated for South Asian agriculture. Then the climate change impact on agricultural production was predicted for 2050 using the estimated frontier. Finally, this paper assessed whether improvements in technical efficiency can offset the effect of climate change in this region. For this, a true random effect stochastic frontier with an exponentially distributed time varying inefficiency model was estimated. For this analysis, secondary data from the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) were used. Output of gross production values were calculated using agricultural land use, pesticide use, total labour use, total fertilizer use data with climate normals pertaining to eight countries in the south Asian region were collected from 1991 to 2017. The results indicate that with the expected climate change by 2050, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan will have a positive impact on their agricultural production while Bangladesh, India, Maldives and Sri Lanka will have a negative impact on their production. Overall technical efficiency of agricultural production in South Asia is 75.12% while individual countries show varying levels of technical efficiency, viz., Bangladesh 69.41% Bhutan 85.64%, India 71.83%, Maldives 44.91%, Nepal 82.78%, Pakistan 85.68%, and Sri Lanka 75.89% of efficiency. Prediction using the estimated model and efficiencies show that the negative impacts of climate change could be mitigated if these countries try to increase their levels of productive efficiencies such as following dissemination of technology, crop protection, training and development strategies, crop insurances to increase agriculture production.
 Keywords: Panel data, South Asia, Stochastic frontier analysis, Technical efficiency, True random effect

Potassium nutrition in rice: A review

Potassium (K) is the most neglected nutrient in Indian agriculture and accounts only 10% of the total fertilizer use. The increased cropping intensity and use of high yielding cultivars since the green revolution led to heavy withdrawal of K from soil. Persistent K mining over the past six decades has mined soil K level in many cultivated areas and continuously transforming sufficiency into deficiency. A recent soil test a little over 1 lakh samples from 33 states of India have categorized 41.1%, 29.3%, and 29.5% of soil samples as low, medium and high in available K respectively. Further, the trend of soil available K status showed a persistent decline in percentage of area under high and medium soil K. Consequently, the evidence of rice crop responding to K nutrition is increased. This review attempts the nexus of K nutrition in rice for devising strategies for potassium management in rice-based cropping systems in the country.

Maximization of Nutrient use Efficiency and Yield through Application of Biofertilizers in Field Pea (Pisum sativum L.)

Background: The negative effects of continuous use of chemical fertilizers on soil microbiology and agricultural sustainability are well established. The chemical fertilizers load in environment can be minimized by combined application of fertilizers and biofertilizers in crops like pulses which require less fertilizer-N and respond well to the use of biofertilizers. The objectives of the study were to see the effect of different biofertilizers in reduction of total fertilizer use and the response of field pea to combined application of chemical- and bio-fertilizers in terms of growth, yield and NUE.Methods: A field experiment was conducted during 2 consecutive rabi season of 2017-18 and 2018-19 at KVK, Chhatarpur, Jabalpur (Madhya Pradesh), India to evaluate the application of fertilizers and biofertilizers on growth parameter, nodulation, nutrient content and uptake, nutrient use efficiency, yield and economics of field pea. The experiment was laid out in randomized block design with five treatments in four replications. Treatments comprised of Control, Recommended dose (RD) of NPK (20: 60: 20 kg N, P2O5 and K2O/ha, respectively) (RDNPK), RDNPK + seed inoculation with Rhizobium @ 20 g/kg seed (RDNPK +R), RDNPK+R+phosphate solubilizing bacteria @ 20 g each/kg seed (RDNPK + R+PSB) and 75% of RDNPK + R+ PSB + potash solubilizing bacteria @ 5 kg/ha (75% RDNPK+ R+PSB+KSB). All other practices followed as per recommendation for the region and different observations and indices were recorded by following standard procedures.Conclusion: The application of 75% RDNPK+R+PSB+KSB was found best treatment among all others which resulted in highest grain yield (1682 kg/ha), protein content (23.1%), protein yield (388.5 kg/ha), net return (Rs. 46 623/ha) and B:C ratio (2.94). The nutrient use efficiency such as Partial Factor Productivity (PFP), Agronomic efficiency (AE), Physiological Efficiency (PE) and Economic Efficiency (EE) were also higher under combined application of fertilizers and biofertilizers. Thus, 75% RDNPK along with combined application of biofertilizers (R+PSB+KSB) may be applied for higher yield and return from field pea.

Assessment of Fertilizer Usage by Food Crops at the National Level

Korea is one of countries that have high application rates of inorganic fertilizers. Recently, environmental pollution has been announced due to overuse of fertilizer. To reduce the fertilizer usage, agricultural policies in terms of environmental sustainability has been introduced since the 1990s. This study aims to investigate total fertilization rates by nutrients and food crops in 9 provinces of Korea. In results, the average of total fertilizer inputs (N-P2O5-K2O) was 18.3-11.2-12.7 kg 10a-1. Total fertilizer usage of potato was 35.5 kg 10a-1 as N that was higher than other crops. The order of contribution to total fertilizer use was inorganic fertilizer > compost > organic fertilizer. As a result, main concern of excess and use of fertilizers were focused on inorganic fertilizer. However, because of the high nutrient content of compost, the application rate of compost should be monitored and controlled. Therefore, long-term monitoring and proper training is required to understand nutrient characteristics of fertilizer and to reserve environmental sustainability in agriculture. Distribution of nutrient in food crops with different fertilization.

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Fertilizer Use Across Prefecture-level Cities in China from 2000 to 2015

Chemical fertilizer plays an important role in increasing grain production in agricultural systems but overuse also brings a series of environmental problems, such as eutrophication of surface water, deterioration of soil structure, and the decline of agricultural carrying capacity. At present, research on chemical fertilizer use mainly focuses on utilization efficiency while studies on the spatial characteristics of its use are limited. It is also of great significance for the sustainable development of agriculture in China to fully understand the spatial changes in the use of chemical fertilizers. Based on data of pure chemical fertilizer use, sown area, and grain yield in prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2015, spatial autocorrelation analysis, cold and hot spot analysis, nuclear density analysis, and standard deviation ellipse analysis were applied. The temporal and spatial variations in total fertilizer use and fertilizer load per unit area in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were compared. The results showed that:① The use of chemical fertilizer in China increased linearly from 2000 to 2015 but it has been in a relatively high agglomeration state in the region. The pure use of chemical fertilizer experienced a process of increasing regional aggregation from 2000 to 2005, weakening from 2005 to 2010, and increasing from 2010 to 2015. ② From a spatial perspective, the total amount of chemical fertilizer applied between 2000 and 2015 showed an increasing trend, shown by an increase in the number of prefecture-level cities and regions in which the use of chemical fertilizer exceeded the standard. The eastern regions of China, which have experienced rapid economic development, such as Guangdong Province and Fujian Province, are over the critical load of chemical fertilizer more and denser than other prefecture-level cities because the proportional reduction in sown area is greater than the increase in chemical fertilizer use. ③ The movement track of the grain production center in China from 2000 to 2015 was not consistent with the movement track of chemical fertilizer usage. Specifically, the center of grain production moves to the northeast, while the center of chemical fertilizer use moves to the west. This demonstrates that the status of commercial grain production in Northeast China is becoming more and more important, and that the use of chemical fertilizer in the western regions of China is gradually increasing. Here, there is a trend for exceeding the standard, which required further attention.

Socioeconomic Factors Determining Fertilizer Use in China for Different Crops: Same Factors, Different Effects

This study examines if the determinants of fertilizer use are the same across crops. Previous socioeconomic studies usually focus on all crops in total or one major crop. Only data from farmers on wheat–maize rotation are used to ensure identical sample. Results indicate differences in factors affecting fertilizer use between two crops. Design of fertilizer policy should take crop differences into consideration. Studies on the socioeconomic determinants of fertilizer use intensity usually analyze the total fertilizer use for all crops as a whole or focus only on fertilizer use for the main crop in the region. This article examines if the determinants of fertilizer use are consistent across different crops. Four years of panel data were collected from annual household surveys in Hebei province, China. The data include only households who practice wheat–maize rotation to generate an identical sample for comparing the determinants of fertilizer use in wheat and maize production (N = 1467). A fixed‐effects regression is used to estimate the effects of socioeconomic factors on the intensity of fertilizer use for wheat and maize, respectively, while controlling for unobserved effects. The results indicate that there is inconsistency in the determinants of fertilizer use intensity between the two crops. Labor availability, crop share in food consumption, and farming diversity affect fertilizer use intensity for wheat and maize differently. These findings suggest that crop type matters when examining the socioeconomic determinants of fertilizer use and that current and future fertilizer policies should take crop differences into consideration, for example when identifying potential target groups in fertilizer subsidy programs and development projects where fertilizer is distributed.

Fertilizer subsidies and the role of targeting in crowding out: evidence from Kenya

The impact of input subsidy programs depends on the extent to which they increase fertilizer use. We used panel data of smallholder farm households from Kenya to analyse the targeting criteria of two fertilizer subsidy programs in Kenya and how these targeting criteria affected farmers’ commercial demand for fertilizer and total fertilizer use. We found that every kilogram of subsidized fertilizer allocated to farmers reduced the quantity of commercial fertilizer purchased by 0.40 kg, a crowding-out effect that is double those found recently in Malawi and Zambia. The large magnitude of crowding out is driven by the fact that neither subsidy program focused on reaching households that had not previously been purchasing commercial fertilizer. There is little evidence that these programs systematically focused on relatively poor households either. The programs crowded out commercial fertilizer use most severely in medium/high potential zones (relative to low), and among households in the upper half of landholding/asset distributions (relative to the lower half). Different targeting criteria could substantially increase the contribution of these subsidy programs to total fertilizer use and hence to national food production and food security.

Water soluble fertilizers in horticultural crops— An appraisal

Horticultural crops have now attained a status, parallel to not only field crops, but stake strong claim of offering nutritional security, thereby, cutting the unnecessary load on consumption of cereals. However, raising productivity of horticultural crops is still a constraint. One of the prime reasons is the abysmal use of fertilizers, hardly 10% of total fertilizer use is diverted towards the share of horticultural crops. Of different fertilizers, liquid fertilizers are again a special class of fertilizers, hold very strong promise in protected cultivation, hydroponic/aeroponic or even open field hydroponic for perennial fruit crops. The liquid fertilizers, as special class of fertilizers provide an enormous possibility of tailoring nutrient use across critical growth stages, a pre-requisite for better nutrient-use-efficiency. Customized fertilization/fertigation is another potential reality, besides its suitability in site specific nutrient managements. In this background, these issues have been addressed in this review.

Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments in fertilizer subsidy programs in sub‐Saharan Africa: a comment on Jayne, T.S., Mather, D., Mason, N., Ricker‐Gilbert, J., 2013. How do fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use in sub‐Saharan Africa? Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments. Agric. Econ. 44(6), 687–703

AbstractJayne et al. make a valuable contribution to emerging empirical evidence on agricultural input subsidy programs in Africa by examining the effects of corrupt “diversion” of subsidized fertilizers on the displacement or crowding out effects of farmers’ purchases of subsidized fertilizer on purchases of unsubsidized fertilizer. Unfortunately, their estimation of the effects of this on economic and financial benefit cost ratios (BCRs) is methodologically flawed and, for Malawi, is also undermined by problematic use of data. This comment presents a consistent methodology for revised estimates of both economic BCR and fiscal efficiency for the Malawi program. This shows that the underlying economic BCR of subsidized fertilizers in Malawi has been higher than estimated by Jayne et al. and is largely unaffected by diversion and displacement, but that the fiscal efficiency of investments in the program is strongly affected by diversion and displacement in program implementation.

Rejoinder to the comment by Andrew Dorward and Ephraim Chirwa on Jayne, T. S., D. Mather, N. Mason, and J. Ricker‐Gilbert. 2013. How do fertilizer subsidy program affect total fertilizer use in sub‐Saharan Africa? Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments. Agricultural Economics, 44(6), 687–703

Rejoinder to the comment by Andrew Dorward and Ephraim Chirwa on Jayne, T. S., D. Mather, N. Mason, and J. Ricker‐Gilbert. 2013. How do fertilizer subsidy program affect total fertilizer use in sub‐Saharan Africa? Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments. Agricultural Economics, 44(6), 687–703

The Impact of Agricultural Extension on Farmer Nutrient Management Behavior in Chinese Rice Production: A Household-Level Analysis

Agricultural nutrients play a critical role in food production and human nutrition in China. Against this backdrop, agricultural extension services are essential for providing farmers with knowledge and information about nutrient management. By using a propensity score-matching (PSM) approach, this study examines the impact of agricultural extension on farmer nutrient management behavior. Survey data about rice farmers in seven provinces of rural China are used. The empirical results indicate that participation in agricultural extension has a positive impact on rationalizing farmer nutrient management behavior. However, this impact is trivial. Compared with non-participating farmers, the reduced ratio of total fertilizer use and total inorganic fertilizer use by participating farmers is only 1.7% to 3.7%, and the improved ratio of the total organic fertilizer use and the level of soil-testing-based fertilizer use by participating farmers is only 1.008% to 1.173%. Additionally, the causal impacts of agricultural extension participation on nutrient management behavior tend to be higher for more educated, risk-loving and larger-scale farmers. This study reveals that China faces great challenges in implementing improved nutrient management practices for hundreds of millions of farmers through extension services. The findings also have important implications for China’s extension system to meet the objectives of improving nutrient management.

How do fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use in sub‐Saharan Africa? Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments

AbstractA major determinant of input subsidy programs’ effects on the achievement of national policy goals is the extent to which they raise total fertilizer use. This study synthesizes recent literature on how the new generation of targeted input subsidy programs has affected national fertilizer use after accounting for crowding effects, and derives benefit–cost (BC) estimates of the fertilizer subsidy programs for Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia after accounting for crowding out and diversion. We highlight two major findings. First, accounting for the illicit diversion of program fertilizer can profoundly influence estimates of how fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use and program impacts. Given recent evidence that 33% or more of total program fertilizer may be diverted before being received by intended beneficiary farmers, the failure to account for program diversion is shown to overestimate the contribution of the subsidy programs to national fertilizer use by 67.3% in the case of Malawi, by 61.6% for Zambia, and by 138.0% for Kenya. The second major finding is that the incremental value of maize output produced from these subsidy programs is considerably less than their costs in most years, except under unusually high maize price assumptions. Conventional BC analyses that do not account for crowding out and diversion may seriously overestimate the benefits of input subsidy programs. Greater attention to program design and implementation details to reduce problems of crowding out and diversion can substantially raise the returns to such programs.

Comparisons of Ion Balance, Fruit Yield, Water, and Fertilizer Use Efficiencies in Open and Closed Soilless Culture of Paprika (Capsicum annuum L.)

Although closed soilless culture is useful for saving water and fertilizers with minimizing environmental pollution, adequate management of nutrient solutions is still not stabilized in greenhouse cultivation. In order to investigate the problems occurred in closed soilless culture of Paprika (Capsicum annuum L., cv. Fiesta), we compared ion balance, fruit yield, and the water and fertilizer use efficiencies in the closed system with those in the open system. The plants were grown in rockwool culture with a nutrient solution of EC 2.5 dS·m -1 . After 4 weeks of treatment, individual ratio of NO₃ - , K + , Ca 2+ , and Mg 2+ to total ion concentrations (meq쩖-1) decreased from the initial value, especially the biggest decrement was observed in K + , and on the other hand, SO₄ 2- , Cl - , and Na + were accumulated in the closed system. Yields after four-time harvests were 19% higher in the open system than in the closed system. Total volume of water used per unit area (㎡) in the open system was 20% higher, but the total water use per fruit was not significantly different between the two systems, while t total fertilizer use per fruit was 78% higher in the closed system. Amount of marketable fruits was not significantly different between the two systems. We concluded that the increase in K + supply and the replenishment of recycled nutrient solution every four weeks were required for preventing the imbalance or depletion of nutrients in the close soilless culture of paprika plants to get more balanced nutrient composition during whole cultivation period.

Addressing the “Wicked Problem” of Input Subsidy Programs in Africa

AbstractThis article reviews and critically assesses evidence on input subsidy programs implemented in selected countries over the past decade in Africa. We believe that input subsidies should be considered wicked problems because of the indeterminacy and difficulty surrounding how they are evaluated. Main findings from the current body of literature are that input subsidies provide some measurable but relatively small positive benefit to recipient households' well‐being. In addition, most studies find that subsidized inputs crowd out commercial input purchases, mitigating the extent to which subsidy programs contribute to total fertilizer use and crop production. African governments may wish to carefully consider the benefits and distributional effects of input subsidy programs relative to other uses of scarce public resources.

Subsidies and Crowding Out: A Double‐Hurdle Model of Fertilizer Demand in Malawi

This article uses a double‐hurdle model with panel data from Malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer. The article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients. Results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0.22 kg of commercial fertilizer, but crowding out ranges from 0.18 among the poorest farmers to 0.30 among relatively nonpoor farmers. This indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use.