Tomato Prices Research Articles

Forecasting of Tomato Price in Karnataka using BATS Model

Tomato plays a vital role in Karnataka’s agro-processing and food industries, contributing significantly to the state’s economy. Even though tomato production in Karnataka is substantial, the state’s market is characterized by price volatility. Tomato prices can undergo drastic fluctuations within short time periods, posing severe challenges to the farmers and consumers. To address these problems, time series models, such as Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, SARIMA, BATS and TBATS have been implemented to forecast the tomato prices in Kolar market of Karnataka state using monthly wholesale prices data from the year 2010 to 2022. Among the applied models, BATS showed superior performance in terms of model validation criteria such as Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

Fuzzified input data tuning for agriculture commodities price prediction

<span lang="EN-US">The quality of the input data will typically affect the prediction accuracy. Preprocessing of data is commonly referred to as input data tuning. Tuning the input data is critical for projecting commodity prices. Anomalies or outliers are unavoidable in historical price data. To increase prediction and forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to find and correct outliers before training the prediction model. To correct the anomaly and increase prediction accuracy, the Fuzzified Input Data Tuning and Prediction algorithm proposed in this study. The identified outliers are corrected using the relevant fuzzy set value in this method. With outlier corrected data, we used Long Short-Term Memory and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average to anticipate tomato prices in Karnataka state. The result of the proposed algorithm is compared with the Sliding Window anomalies correction model, and without disposing of the outliers. The suggested algorithm, with 37.89%, performed better than Sliding Window with 40.08% and 43.11% Mean Absolute Percentage Error, respectively, and without outlier correction. The sensitivity analysis shows that the performance of the model is unaffected by the forecasting horizon. Finally, comparitive analysis peformed with previous research work, and the proposed model performed better.</span>

Application of long short term memory to forecast tomato prices

Application of long short term memory to forecast tomato prices

A Hybrid Framework for Plant Leaf Region Segmentation: Comparative Analysis of Swarm Intelligence with Convolutional Neural Networks

Agriculture is important for the survival of humanity since about 70% of the world's population is engaged in agricultural pursuits to varying degrees. The previous and present methodology lacks ways to identify diseases in different crops within an agricultural environment. The crops most impacted by these illnesses are tomatoes, leading to a significant increase in the price of tomatoes. Controlling tomato illnesses is crucial for optimal development and production, making early diagnosis and disease detection vital. Early disease diagnosis and treatment in tomato plants can lead to improved yields. Tomato plants are susceptible to illnesses, which can significantly affect the quality, quantity, and productivity of the crop if not properly treated. Despite many unsuccessful efforts to utilize machine learning methods for detecting and classifying illnesses in tomato plants. This study introduces a comparative framework for segmenting tomato leaf regions using both conventional and swarm intelligence methodologies to determine the more effective approach. This framework enables the development of a tomato plant diagnosis system capable of analyzing various sorts of images, including both standard and custom image datasets. The obtained evaluation parameters of the proposed model in terms of average precision, recall, f-measure, error, and accuracy are 0.914, 0.915, 0.915, 1.55% and 98.45%, respectively. We performed a comparative examination of six scenarios: T-model, K-model, TPSO-model, KPSO-model, TGO-model, and KGO-model. The combination of K-means with the GO algorithm proved to be a powerful hybrid technique, with an accuracy of 96.45%. Comparatively, the T-model, K-model, TPSO-model, KPSO-model, and TGO-model attained accuracies of 85.73%, 86.61%, 87.54%, 88.64%, and 92.21% correspondingly.

Quantifying seasonal market trends for tomato, pumpkin and cabbage in Guwahati (Assam, India)

The objective of the present study was to examine the seasonal and trend patterns in wholesale prices of tomato, pumpkin and cabbage over different seasons in Guwahati city, Assam. From time series and box plots, the study found that pumpkin prices are higher in November rather than lower prices during April or June. We find that cabbage is priced lowest from January to May and induces peaks in prices, rising the most in October. During January-April, tomato prices fall and reach a low point in April. From May onwards, the prices increase and peak in November. We performed the Mann-Kendal trend test, which showed no significant trend in the prices of all three perishable crops. It was proven that it is weakly loading and uniform across all years. Seasonal indices show a rise in the prices of pumpkins from May to October, cabbage from April to October and tomatoes from April to October reflecting their shorter shelf life and seasonal nature of these crops.

Determining co-movements of tomato prices in the United States and macroeconomic variables in Mexico for 2023

Objective: To analyze the co-movements of macroeconomic variables in Mexico and prices of Mexican tomato exports and to estimate the prices of Mexican tomatoes in American and Canadian supply markets based on Mexican macroeconomic variables. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was conducted using Pearson's coefficient—calculating the standard scores for X and Y. We determined the co-movements of Mexican tomato market prices and Mexico’s GDP, the Interbank Equilibrium Interest Rate (IEIR), natural gas prices, and consumer inflation. Econometric techniques were thus combined with agricultural sector variables as a reliable precedent of the relation intensity between said variables. Results: The coefficient of determination showed an acceptable degree of linear relationship between the market prices of Mexican tomatoes in different cities and the selected macroeconomic variables, with an average correlation of 20%. We concluded that the variables are not entirely independent since they show a weak linear relationship between them. Study limitations/implications: It is crucial to conduct studies to determine whether the coefficients of determination support linearity or independence between the evaluated macroeconomic variables. Findings/Conclusions: Econometric techniques were combined with agricultural sector variables as a reliable precedent of the relation intensity between said variables. The coefficient of determination showed an acceptable degree of linear relationship between the market prices of tomatoes in different cities and the selected macroeconomic variables. We recommend the creation of a price forecasting model.

Price Behaviour and Price Forecasting of Tomato in Koyambedu Market, Tamil Nadu

This study aimed to comprehend the price behavior of tomato crops and forecast their prices in the Koyambedu market in Tamil Nadu, one of the major vegetable markets in South India. Secondary data on price of tomatoes were collected from Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs) for a period of 8 years, from 2014 to 2022. Statistical tools such as trend analysis and seasonality indices were computed to understand the movement of prices in the Koyambedu market. Results revealed peak market prices in November and lowest in March, with a positive trendline indicating a gradual price increase over the study years. Comparative analysis between Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal-ARIMA (SARIMA) assessed price prediction accuracy. The periodogram highlighted significant seasonality, guiding the use of SARIMA to forecast 2023 monthly prices. Predicted prices ranged from 3675.00 Rs/Qtl in November to 1178.76 Rs/Qtl in May.

Erratic Rise in Tomato Prices, Status, Issues, Government Initiatives and Policy Suggestions to Manage the prices of Tomato and other Vegetables

Tomatoes, hold a paramount position in both Indian cuisine and the nation's economy. The status of tomato area and production in India and in states show its importance in Indian economy. India is leading tomato producer in the world. In India, MP and Andhra Pradesh are the largest producer of tomato in India. The erratic weather conditions, pest attack and transport bottlenecks have raised the tomato prices in June to August 2023. In this regard, the paper is to analyze the status and issues in erratic rise in tomato prices, government initiatives and Policy suggestions to manage the prices of tomato and other vegetables. In the study, it is found that the number of reasons that has led to rise in prices starting from poor prices received for tomato for rabi crop, rise in temperature in May – June and to high rainfall in July end. Government has then initiated number of needed measures to support both producers and consumers from creating the awareness, purchase of produce from surplus areas and then distribution of produce in high price areas. To prevent the abnormal price situations in tomatoes or other vegetables, there is need of a multi-pronged approach involving both short-term relief and long-term strategies. As a policy suggestion, to combat such crisis in future, a collaborative effort and coordination required among government agencies, weather departments, agricultural experts, extension machinery and farmers themselves is essential.

Evaluation of the behavior of prices and market arrivals of tomatoes – A case study of West Bengal, India

The oscillations in prices and arrivals of agricultural goods are primarily influenced by the seasonal character of the agricultural production system. Here, we investigate the trends and seasonal price dynamics concerning market arrivals of tomatoes in West Bengal, India. Monthly data on arrivals and prices of tomatoes were collected between 2013-14 and 2019-20. Both the ordinary least square and the twelve-month moving average techniques were employed to identify the long-term trends and seasonal variations in price and arrival patterns. The market arrivals exhibit negative trends in three markets, except for Barasat and Bardhaman, where the observed values are not statistically significant. However, the lone market in Diamond Harbour shows a positive and significant trend in arrivals. Regarding current prices, all markets, except for Chakdah and Siliguri, exhibit positive and significant trend. Seasonality is more prominent in market arrivals than the price for all the markets. Results suggest the variability in arrivals is proportional to the number of arrivals in the market, in turn, larger arrivals lead to higher variability. Price variations are substantial and exhibit relative stability both within and across markets, unlike arrivals which show more fluctuation. Price fluctuations are significant not only within a given year but also between different years. Additionally, an inverse relationship between current prices and market arrivals suggest as arrivals increase, prices tend to decrease and vice versa. The study provides new insights into the trends in market arrivals and seasonal price dynamics of tomatoes in West Bengal, eastern India.

Temporal analysis of tomato prices and arrivals in Karnataka: Insights from SARIMA mode

This study analysed the price behaviour of tomatoes in five major markets of Karnataka. Statistical tools such as correlation, seasonal index, and trend analysis were employed to examine the relationship between prices and market arrivals, seasonal variations, and patterns in tomato prices. Positive correlations were observed in some markets in Karnataka, likely due to the demand-supply gap, differences in tomato quality, and transportation costs. Among the selected markets, Binny Mill exhibited the highest intra-year price fluctuations, while Chikkamagalore experienced the lowest. The upward movement of the trend lines in Chikkamagalore, Ramanagara, and Kolar indicates a strong relationship between the two variables, possibly due to increased demand and limited supply. Consequently, the SARIMA model was employed to forecast tomato prices in the primary markets of Karnataka. The predicted prices for Karnataka markets decreased substantially in May but increased in June and July. Deviations between the forecasted and actual prices for 2023 suggested that market dynamics such as erratic supply, demand fluctuations, and other external factors might not be fully captured by the SARIMA models. Advanced model predictions are recommended to enhance forecasting accuracy and better account for complex market behaviours in crops like tomatoes. Keywords: Market arrival, price forecast, seasonality, trend. JEL Codes: B16, C32, C53, C55.

Sustainability assessment of peri-urban organic horticulture — A case study in the United Kingdom

PurposeThere is a growing concern about the resilience and sustainability of horticultural production in the United Kingdom (UK) as a result of high energy costs and insufficient local labour, causing over-reliance on imports. In this study, we present an integrated environmental and economic assessment of organic peri-urban horticulture using primary data from a farm in Sheffield.MethodsThis study includes a farm-to-gate hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) using the ReCIPE (H) approach for the functional unit of 1-kg tomatoes produced in an unheated polytunnel without supplementary lighting, and 1 kg of field-grown courgettes. All analyses were conducted in SimaPro software using environmental data from the ecoinvent database. Results were compared with those from a systematic literature review of similar studies.ResultsWe found that the production of organic tomatoes and courgettes resulted in a global warming potential (GWP) of 0.61 kg CO2-eq and 0.11 kg CO2-eq respectively using a process-based LCA approach. Using a hybrid LCA approach, however, yielded a GWP of 3.53 kg CO2-eq and 1.70 kg CO2-eq for the production of organic tomatoes and courgettes respectively. An additional scenario included farmgate-to-warehouse transportation for both domestic and imported produce from Spain, but found that the GWP of tomatoes in the case study was 1.87 times higher than those from Spain. Economic analysis showed that the marginal increase in the prices of tomatoes and courgettes from the case study farm was 4.6 and 5.15 times less than the market prices.ConclusionWe conclude that the studied production system is both economically and environmentally sustainable as compared to the existing scenario. Other potential benefits of peri-urban organic horticulture include employment, mental health, community cohesion, which remain to be explored in a future qualitative study. The present study is novel as it appears to be the first application of hybrid LCA to UK horticulture. The findings are highly topical given the recent horticultural supply constraints in the UK.

STUDI KOMPARATIF PENJUALAN TOMAT (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill.) LOKAL DAN NON LOKAL DI TINGKAT DISTRIBUTOR PASAR SEGIRI KOTA SAMARINDA

There are generally two types of tomatoes sold at Segiri Market, Samarinda City, namely local tomatoes and non-local tomatoes. The two types of tomatoes have many differences, including prices and stock in different markets. The purpose of this study was to determine the differences in prices and stocks of local and non-local tomatoes at the distributor level of Segiri Market, Samarinda City. This research was conducted for 12 weeks starting from September 2022 to November 2022. The data needed is primary data and secondary data with purposive sampling of 11 respondents, namely 4 respondents are local tomato distributors and 7 respondents are non-local tomato distributors. To find out the marketing channels for local tomatoes and non-local tomatoes at the Segiri Market distributor level, Sanarinda City, the snowball sampling method was used. Meanwhile, to find out the difference in price and stock of local and non-local tomatoes, an independent sample t-test can be used. The results of this study stated that the average price of local and non-local tomatoes had differences. Although based on the average price of local and non-local tomatoes had differences, when the sample t test was carried out for the selling prices of local and non-local tomatoes, it was known that the sig value. (2-tailed) of 0.193 0.05. So, according to the basis of decision making on the independent sample t test, it can be concluded that Ho is accepted and Ha is rejected. The sample t test for the purchase price of local and non-local tomatoes is known to have a sig value. (2-tailed) as much as 0.154 0.05. So, according to the basis of decision making in the independent sample t test, it can be concluded that Ho is accepted and Ha is rejected. Thus it can be determined based on the t test that there is no significant difference between the prices of local and non-local tomatoes. The amount of stock of local and non-local tomatoes also differs based on the average number of stocks. After testing the sample t test, it is known that the sig. (2-tailed) of 0.002 0.05. So, as the basis for decision making on the independent sample t test, it can be concluded that Ho is rejected and Ha is accepted. Thus it can be concluded that there is a significant difference between the number of local and non-local tomato stocks

Inovasi Manisan Tomat (Solanum lycopersicum) sebagai Upaya Peningkatan Pendapatan Petani di Kecamatan Widang, Tuban

Tomatoes are one of the most widely cultivated horticultural crops in the region Tuban Regency. One of the women farmer groups that often cultivate tomatoes is the Farmers Women’s Group in is the Farmers Women’s Group in Widang Subdistrict. The Farmers Women’s Group has tomato plants with high yields. But sometimes the price of tomatoes is very low causing the Farmers Women’s Group to experience significant losses. The author sees this condition as an opportunity to increase the use value of tomatoes so that they have a higher price. One of the efforts that can be done is by using tomatoes as raw material for making candied dried tomatoes. Candied dried tomatoes are a very popular food and have wide market opportunities. This has been proven by the high sales of candied dried tomatoes in several regions in Indonesia. The author sincerely hopes that this community service activity will be able to increase the income of the Farmers Women’s Group in Widang District. The Farmer Women's Group is able to make candied dried tomatoes into one of the foods and souvenirs that are in demand by tourists visiting the Tuban Regency area. Community service activities were carried out at the Agricultural Extension Center of Widang District, Tuban Regency, which was attended by around 15 farm women. This activity contains counseling related to the innovation of candied tomatoes, followed by planning and implementing activities to make sweets made from tomato fruit. Armed with knowledge and practice, participants from the Widang District Women Farmers Group were interested and planned to apply the idea and innovation of candied dried tomatoes during the next harvest season. Keywords: farmer women's group ,sweets, tomatoes

Türkiye’de Bitkisel Ürünlerin Üretici Fiyatı Anomalileri

Currently, some studies on food consumer price anomalies are being conducted in Turkey and other countries. However, the research on crop products producer price anomalies is limited. The purpose of this paper is to identify producer price anomalies for selected crop products in Turkey over the last ten years (2013-2022) using quarterly and annual Compound Growth Rates (CGR) of the monthly price level, which allows for price monitoring after accounting for the effects of seasonality and inflation on prices, making it an ideal way to use prices as the basis of an early warning indicator. According to the results, moderately or abnormally high prices were measured in all years except for 2015. Sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes and pistachio were the crop products abnormally high prices were measured more than one year in this period. Abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2014 and 2021 at most. And, no abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. When the last three year situations of crop products with moderately or abnormally high producer prices were examined, wheat and maize were the crops with moderately high prices, and sunflower and sugar beet were the crops with abnormally high prices in 2020. In 2021, only the price of wheat was moderately high; cotton, maize, and barley were the crops with abnormally high prices. No abnormally high prices were measured in 2022, and the prices of wheat, cotton, tomatoes, maize, and potatoes were moderately high.

Analisis Harga Pokok Tomat di Kelurahan Kaisabu Baru Kecamatan Sorawolio Kota Baubau

This research examines the price of tomatoes in Kaisabu Baru Village, Sorawolio District and Baubau City. In Kaisabu Baru Village, Sorawolio District, Baubau City, this research seeks to determine the cost of goods sold for tomatoes and determine what variables are obstacles to tomato production. Data analysis used to answer the first goal is by Break Even Point (BEP) analysis, and the second goal is answered using descriptive statistical analysis such as percentages and averages. The samples in this study were farmers who cultivated tomato plants in Kaisabu Baru Village, Sorawolio District, Baubau City, with as many as 33 people. In the calculation of the sample, the Slovin formula is used. Data is collected by directly interviewing farmers, observing research objects, and recording data already available in related offices. The results of this study show: 1) The total average cost of goods sold by respondents per tomato farm is IDR123,224 / planting season, and the average cost of goods sold per hectare is IDR647,412 / planting season.

Price instability, seasonal index and modelling for major vegetables in India

Vegetable production plays a pivotal role in the horticulture industry, yet the availability of vegetable crops remains unpredictable. Seasonal volatility contributes to unclear supply, resulting in price fluctuations. This study aimed to assess the seasonal indices and price instability of key vegetables in India using the Cuddy-Della Instability Index and the Ratio to Moving Average approach. Monthly price series spanning January 2010 to December 2021 were collected from the AGMARKNET website. Seasonality in the price series was examined using the Kruskal-Wallis test. The results indicated that potatoes exhibited moderate instability, while onions and tomatoes displayed high instability. The onion price series demonstrated the highest seasonal indices in October, November, and December. Wholesale and retail prices were lowest in April, May, and June. October and November marked the peak wholesale and retail prices for potatoes, with the lowest prices recorded in February and March. July and August were the months with the highest wholesale and retail tomato prices, while February and March saw the lowest prices. The ARIMA model, applied to de-seasonalized price series, estimated factors excluding the seasonal component. Recognizing these price patterns enables farmers, policymakers, and government sectors to take necessary precautions against sudden price changes

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE SUPPLY AND PRICES OF LETTUCE, POTATO AND TOMATO IN MINAS GERAIS

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the dynamics of the production, commercialization and consumption of vegetables. Lettuce, potato and tomato, an herbaceous vegetable, a tuberous vegetable and a fruit vegetable, respectively, are among the group of vegetables purchased most frequently. The objective of this study was to evaluate how the pandemic affected the price and supply of lettuce, potato and tomato in 2020 compared to previous years based on data from CEASA-MG from 2016 to 2021. The supply of lettuce was constant in 2020 but lower than the previous year until the month of August, and in December, the price was equal to that of the previous year. The supply of potato was lower throughout 2020 than in previous years. The price of potato was lower in 2020 than the price charged in 2019, until October 2020. The supply of tomato was low throughout 2020. Additionally, with respect to price, there was a decrease from March to July 2020 and a subsequent increase, surpassing the prices of previous years starting in October. In conclusion, both the supply and price of these vegetables were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pemanfaatan Komoditas Tomat (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill) Guna Menciptakan Nilai Tambah Dengan Melakukan Sosialisasi Pembuatan Manisan Tomat Di Desa Paok Pampang Kecamatan Sukamulia Lombok Timur

Tomato (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill) is a horticultural crop that has high economic value and is widely used as a commercial product. Abundant tomato harvests make the price of tomatoes in Paok Pampang Village cheap. It was recorded that in July 2023, tomatoes have decreased in price from IDR 12,000 – IDR 22,000, down to IDR 3000 – IDR 4000 per kilo. With this low price, farmers sometimes leave their tomatoes in their fields, causing tomatoes that are ready to be harvested to rot and waste. The method used in this activity is a method in the form of practice that is carried out with several stages, including Activity Planning, Activity Preparation, and Activity Implementation. Next is the socialization of candied tomato products. This socialization aims to educate the public that tomatoes can have added value if converted into new products such as processed into candied tomatoes. The people of Paok Pampang Village are also enthusiastic about this candied tomato product. This can be seen through the questions raised during the socialization process

Pelatihan dan Pemanfaatan Olahan Tomat sebagai Selai Tomat Desa Sidokumpul, Kecamatan Sambeng, Kabupaten Lamongan

Sidokumpul Village is one of the villages in Sambeng District, Lamongan Regency, classified as a tropical area with agricultural potential. one of the commodities that are often cultivated are Tomato and Tobacco plants. During the main harvest season, generally the price of tomatoes will experience a drastic price drop. Efforts that can be made to keep tomato prices high is to process tomatoes into processed products with economic value. This training program aims to: 1. Form and develop an innovative society, 2. Increase knowledge or skills, especially diversification of food processing, 3. Increase production and marketing knowledge. Training activities are carried out through 3 main stages, namely preparation, implementation and evaluation. processing of tomato jam was chosen as one of the processed tomatoes with a longer shelf life and higher economic value. This training activity by the KKN group was able to increase public knowledge and the selling value of tomatoes, as well as being an alternative solution when the selling price of tomatoes was cheap. The processing process is relatively easy and uses simple equipment

Efisiensi Pemasaran Tomat di Desa Tondegesan Kecamatan Kawangkoan Kabupaten Minahasa

Tomatoes are worth cultivating and developing because they have good economic value and the demand for tomatoes continues to increase along with the widespread use of tomato plants for various purposes, both for culinary and food industries. This research was conducted from May to June 2022. The research site is located in Tondegesan Village, Kawangkoan District, and Minahasa Regency. Based on the research conducted, it can be interpreted that in marketing channel I, farmers sell tomatoes to existing traders. Traders are influenced by the number of tomatoes calculated in cash units worth Rp100 and the distance between the farmer's location and the Kinali Village. Marketing or transportation costs for one cash box are between Rp1.111 and one cash box containing approximately 20 kg. The purchase price of tomatoes from producing farmers is Rp11.000 per kg and sold to consumers Rp15.000 per kg. The traders referred to in marketing channel I are traders who travel between villages. Consumers who buy tomatoes are people in Kinali Village. In marketing channel II, farmers sell tomatoes to wholesalers then process them in packaging to be ready for sale to settlement traders outside the village of Tondegesan and sell them to the city of Manado at the Berhati market. In this process, wholesalers incur quite large marketing costs in transportation costs and packaging. Marketing or transportation costs incurred by wholesalers for one cash are between Rp985 and one cash containing approximately 20 kg. The purchase price of tomatoes from producing farmers is Rp11,000 per kg and sold to switching traders is Rp13.500 per kg with a profit of Rp1.515. So the marketing margin earned by wholesalers is Rp2.500 per kg. Then the marketing or transportation costs for one cash are Rp1.116 and one cash contains approximately 20 kg. The purchase price of tomatoes from wholesalers is Rp13.500 per kg and sold to consumers Rp15000 per kg with a profit of Rp384 per kg. Thus the marketing margin obtained by the retailer is Rp1.500 per kg.