Toda-Yamamoto Test Research Articles

MACRO-ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF INWARD CAPITAL FLOWS: A CASE OF NIGERIA IN TIMES OF SECURITY CHALLENGES

This study used quarterly data for the period of 2014Q1–2021Q2 to investigate the macro-econometric implications of capital flows to Nigeria in the face of security challenges. The ARDL bounds test technique identified the long-run relationships between macroeconomic dynamics, insecurity, and total capital inflows to Nigeria, while the error correction mechanism (ECM) identified the short-run relationships. The Toda-Yamamoto test was used to determine whether the model variables were causally related or not. The findings pointed to a short-term negative relationship between insecurity, exchange rates, lending rates, and inflows of capital, while a positive relationship was found between industrial production capacity, the consumer price index, and the total inflows of capital to Nigeria, with insecurity, exchange rates, the consumer price index, and lending rates being the most significant variables. In the long run, insecurity, lending rate, and consumer price index had no significant impact on inward capital inflows, while exchange rate and industrial production capacity exerted significant impacts on capital inflows. The lending rate had a negative impact on overall inflows of capital, whereas the exchange rate, industrial production capacity, and consumer price index had positive impacts. The exchange rate and industrial production capacity were the most important variables that affected capital inflows. Based on the ECM, it was realized that aggregate inward capital flows were stabilized by a factor of roughly 47.2% per quarter in order to reach long-run equilibrium. The Toda-Yamamoto causality tests indicated that the interactions between macroeconomic variables and insecurity strongly influenced capital flows to Nigeria. The overall findings suggested that promoting macroeconomic stability and combating insecurity could improve the investment climate, encouraging foreign capital flows into Nigeria.

Effects of FDI on the Growth of Agricultural Sector in Côte d'Ivoire: An Empirical Analysis Based on Toda-Yamamoto Causality Tests and ARDL Cointegration

This paper analyses the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to agricultural growth in Côte d'Ivoire over the period 1980-2021. The data come from World Development Indicators WDI (World Bank). The Toda-Yamamoto causality test and the ARDL cointegration approach are used. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto test show no causal link between FDI and agricultural growth, while those of the ARDL approach indicate that FDI has a negative impact on agricultural growth. There are several reasons for these results: insufficient resources allocated to the agricultural sector and the predominance of FDI in other sectors of activity in Côte d'Ivoire. Our results also show the role that the State must play in building infrastructure and increasing foreign trade.

Skill intensity in manufacturing exports: Do basic, technology-intensive or differentiated exports cause growth in Kuwait?

This study examines the causality between basic, technology-intensive, and differentiated manufacturing exports and economic growth in Kuwait using data from 1970 to 2021 and two augmented production function models: one with natural resource exports (Model 1) and the other without on both sides of the model (Model 2). The Johansen cointegration and the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound tests are conducted to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive framework (VAR) and the Toda–Yamamoto test are employed to explore the directions of the short- and long-run causality between variables, respectively. The empirical results of Model 1 indicate that neither of the decomposed manufacturing exports directly causes economic growth in the short or long run at any conventional significance level, whereas natural resource exports cause economic growth, basic and technology-intensive manufactured exports in the short-run at the 5% level. Model 2 estimations confirm the absence of direct causality between decomposed manufacturing exports and economic growth, whereas a long-run causality runs from output net of natural resource exports to basic manufactured exports at the 10% level. Both model estimations indicate that all the variables jointly cause economic growth and basic manufactured exports in the short and long run, directly or indirectly through imports, confirming the existence of a circular causation. These findings can serve as the basis for designing specific export–import policies to foster diversification and a sustainable economic growth in line with Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach

AbstractThis study examines the long-run impacts of geopolitical risk on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey using Shin and Fourier Shin cointegration methods for yearly observations from 1985 to 2019. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relation between CO2 emissions and geopolitical risk, economic growth, renewable energy, and the population size in Turkey. According to dynamic ordinary least squares estimation, geopolitical risk and renewable energy consumption have negative and statistically significant impacts on CO2 emissions, whereas economic growth and population size have positive and statistically significant effects on CO2 in the long-run. This shows that increases in geopolitical risks tend to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey, by depressing production in polluting industries as well as economic growth. In addition, the study performs TY and Fourier TY causality analyses to check for consistency (or robustness) in the cointegration results. Accordingly, the Fourier TY test results demonstrate a unidirectional relationship from geopolitical risk and population size to CO2 emissions, whereas the Toda–Yamamoto test procedure indicates no causal relationship between the series in the long run. Overall, increases in geopolitical risks decrease the rate of production and pollution in the polluting sector in Turkey. However, this also means a decrease in economic growth rates for Turkey which focuses its economic policy and strategy on sustainable growth and development. Therefore, it is very important for Turkey to immediately implement an environmental practice that will not harm its economic policies.

Testing the Effectiveness of Government Investments in Environmental Governance: Evidence from China

The Chinese government has taken many measures to improve the environment, such as directly investing in pollution control infrastructure, but the effectiveness remains to be tested. This paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto test and the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto test to examine the link between environmental governance investment and environmental quality in China from 2003 to 2020. PM2.5, which measures air quality, is used here as an indicator of the environment. The results reveal that environmental governance investment has notably lessened the average concentration of PM2.5 in certain regions, indicating a positive effect on environmental quality, albeit with regional variations. Taking structural breaks into consideration, the relationship between environmental governance investment and environmental amelioration is significant in a smaller number of regions. Additionally, the cross-sectional correlation is further scrutinized to assess the essential robustness of the causality between the two variables. The findings lend support to the aforementioned conclusion. These conclusions provide valuable guidance for China’s policymakers in optimizing environmental governance investments to curb pollution and achieve sustainable development.

The Effect of Interest Rates on Portfolio Investments and Foreign Direct Investments in Türkiye

This study aims to analyse the relationship between foreign direct investments (FDI) and portfolio investments (PI) and interest rates. Firstly, ADF and PP unit root tests were applied to determine whether the variables were stationary or not. Since the series became stationary at different levels, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test) test, one of the cointegration tests, was applied. Afterward, Toda-Yamamoto tests were utilized to determine whether there is causality between the variables and if there is a causality relationship, to determine its directions. According to the ARDL bound test results, it is concluded that there is no short-term asymmetric relationship between PI and other independent variables. In other words, there is no statistically significant relationship between PI and EUR, USD and TL interest rates. On the other hand, it is concluded that the FDI dependent variable and other independent variables are long-run cointegrated in the relevant period. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test where FDI and TL, EUR, and USD are independent variables, it is concluded that there is a Granger causality relationship between FDI and TL and EUR interest rates.

Impact of public sector governance and human capital development on Myanmar's economic growth

Purpose ─ This research examines the effects of Myanmar's domestic economic reform measures on its economic growth, highlighting the impact of public sector governance and human capital development. Methods ─ The Toda-Yamamoto test on Granger causality and the vector error correction model are employed to examine the impact of Myanmar's domestic economic reform measures on its economic growth.Finding ─ The results reveal that unidirectional causality existed, from public sector governance to economic growth and human capital development to economic growth. The vector error correction model revealed that public sector governance and human capital development had a long-term and positive relationship with economic growth from 2001 to 2019.Implication ─ The study confirms that Myanmar's domestic economic reform measures contributed to its economic growth from 2001- 2019. These findings underpin the importance of continuing domestic economic reform, such as public sector governance and promoting human capital development, to achieve economic growth in the long run. Originality ─ This paper contributes to existing literature by shedding light on the impact of public sector governance, human capital development, and public sector governance on Myanmar's economic growth.

Unveiling Economic Synchrony: Analyzing Lag Dynamics between GDP Growth and Construction Activity in Poland and Other EU Countries

This study examines the dynamic relationship between the business cycle and the construction sector activity in 27 EU countries, focusing on Poland. Using the cross-correlation function (CCF) and a set of economic- and construction-related variables, including GDP growth, construction production, building permits, and construction operating time by backlog, quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2023Q2 (94 quarters in total) are analyzed. Beyond the CCF analysis, causality is also examined using Toda–Yamamoto tests to explore the nuanced temporal relationships between GDP growth and construction activity proxies. The research uncovers synchronized positive lag max results for construction production, suggesting a harmonized response to broader economic changes, especially within 9 to 11 quarters. In contrast, building permits and construction time by backlog show divergent positive lag max values, suggesting the need for tailored, localized strategies. Negative lag max values emphasize the anticipatory role of the construction sector as an early indicator of economic change. Overcoming methodological challenges, this study provides insights critical for policymakers and researchers, promoting a nuanced understanding of economic synchrony and guiding informed strategies for sustainable development. Future recommendations include refining localized strategies based on lag patterns for optimal economic management.

Determination of Causality Relationship Between Red Meat Prices and Fattening Feed Prices in Turkey by Toda-Yamamoto Test

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de kırmızı et fiyatları ile besi yemi fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemektir. Araştırma materyali, Ocak 2008 ile Aralık 2022 tarihleri arasındaki 180 aylık kırmızı et fiyatları ve besi yemi fiyatları verilerinden oluşmaktadır. İncelenen dönemde fiyatların cari olarak arttığı belirlenmiş ve reel fiyatlar dikkate alındığında özellikle son iki yılda besi yemi fiyatlarının kırmızı et fiyatlarına göre daha fazla oranda arttığı belirlenmiştir. Kırmızı et fiyatları ile besi yemi fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek için Toda-Yamamoto Testi kullanılmıştır. Bu amaçla öncelikle serilerin ADF ve PP birim kök sınamaları yapılmış ve serilerin birim kök içerdiği, ancak birinci farklarında birim kökün yok olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Serilerin gecikme uzunluğu 3 ay olarak belirlenmiş ve varyans ile otokorelasyon bulunmadığı saptanmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, besi yemi fiyatları ile kırmızı et fiyatları arasında %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ancak, kırmızı et fiyatlarından besi yemi fiyatlarına doğru anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Kırmızı et fiyatlarındaki artışın yem fiyatındaki artışın bir fonksiyonu olduğu söylenebilir. Bu durumda, fiyat istikrarı açısından yem üretiminin artırılması ve ithalata bağımlılığın azaltılması için alınabilecek önlemlerin artırılması gerektiği belirtilebilir.

ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF ROAD TRANSPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SEHRADEGROUP COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE NARDL FRAMEWORK

The contemporary economy depends on an effective transportation system, and road haulage assumes a crucial function in fostering dynamic economic growth and commerce. This article aims to investigate the influence of various road transportation modes on economic growth in the Visegrad countries. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was employed to scrutinize the asymmetrical impact of various transport modes on GDP. We used quarterly data from 2004–2021 for the Visegrad countries. In addition, a Toda-Yamamoto test was performed to establish causality between variables. The study found evidence of differing impacts of transport modes on economic growth in the examined countries. Specifically, international, and cross-trade transport had a balanced effect on GDP growth, whereas cabotage and domestic transport had an imbalanced impact. The Toda-Yamamoto method's causality analysis results demonstrate bidirectional causality between freight work and GDP in both international and domestic transportation for the Czech Republic, Poland, and Poland's cross-trade. On the other hand, unidirectional causality was established for cross-trade in Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Based on the conducted estimation, it was deduced that the impact of specific transport modes on economic growth is uneven and reliant on both the transport mode and the country. The significant results obtained hold critical implications for economic policy, enabling the adaptation of strategies and regulations to foster growth based on variances in the influence of road transportation on the economy.

Disaggregating renewable energy-growth nexus: W-ARDL and W-Toda-Yamamoto approaches

The research on the effects of economic growth on renewable energy faces two significant limitations that may impede the formulation of accurate and effective renewable energy policy. The first limitation pertains to the use of an aggregate methodology, which relies solely on aggregated data for analyzing the relationship between renewable energy and economic growth. The second limitation is the absence of a systematic search for empirical models that could minimize estimation errors. In light of these constraints, this study proposes a disaggregate analysis to examine the concurrent effects of the components of economic growth on the components of aggregate renewable energy. Second, the research introduces two methodologies: wavelet-based and error-adjusted variants of the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and the Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test. The study presents two major findings. First, it reveals substantial differences between the effects of aggregate growth and growth components on aggregate renewable energy and its components in the ten countries with the highest carbon emissions. Second, the study demonstrates that the predictive accuracy of wavelet-based and error-adjusted ARDL and Toda-Yamamoto tests (W-ARDL and W-Toda-Yamamoto) for all estimated models is significantly higher than that of non-wavelet-based tests. The study suggests prioritizing a disaggregate approach to the renewable energy-growth nexus and utilizing wavelet-based and error-adjusted econometric techniques to improve the accuracy and efficiency of renewable energy policy.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PARTICIPATION INDEX AND EXCHANGE RATE, GOLD AND OIL IN TURKIYE

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship in Türkiye between the participation index and the exchange rate, gold, and oil. The research has been carried out using Johansen cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests by using weekly data for the period 03.01.2016 – 26.12.2021. All of the series were found to be stationary at the first difference, and then Johansen cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto tests were applied. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the participation index, exchange rate, gold and oil series are cointegrated in the long term. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, it was determined that there is one-way causality from exchange rate and oil to the participation index.

Relationship between greenfield investment and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

The key purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between Greenfield investment and economic growth of Bangladesh using annual time series data during the period 2003–2020. The study employs Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) tests of Granger causality method that performs Modified Wald Test (MWALD) in order to establish causal relation among different variables. There are three steps in implementing the T-Y procedure. The first step involves using different tests (ADF, PP, and KPSS test) to identify the maximum order of integration of the variable. The second step requires selecting the optimal lag length (p) based on several lag length selection criteria. In the third step, MWALD approach is used for testing the vector auto regression model for causality. The results of the tests (ADF, PP, and KPSS) concluded that the maximum order of integration of the variables is two. Then, the optimal lag length of two (p = 2) has been selected based on several lag length selection criteria. Finally, the findings reveal the evidence of unidirectional causality from Real Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (RGFDI) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The key contribution of this study is to investigate the Greenfield investments-growth relationship for a country like Bangladesh.

Economic Growth and the Insurance Sector in South Africa: Toda-Yamamoto

Abstract. Introduction. The connection between the real economy and the financial sector continues to be a subject of debate amongst scholars. There is a plethora of studies dedicated to unravelling the relationship between economic activity and financial progress. However, a large share of those studies has concentrated on banking and the capital market industries; the studies that have undertaken to decipher the connection between the insurance industry and prosperity in the economy are insufficient. Purpose. This study attempts to explore the link between South Africa's insurance industry and economic growth. The study made use of secondary time-series quarterly data and employed the Toda-Yamamoto (non-Granger causality) test. Results. Firstly, the findings show a uni-directional causal relationship running from long-term insurance to GDP percapita. Implying that the South African long-term insurance sector is supply-leading. Secondly, the results revealed that GDP percapita and the short-term insurance sector are interdependent (bi-directional relationship). Lastly, the findings showed a unidirectional causal relationship between GDP per-capita and total insurance assets. Conclusions. The results imply that the South African total insurance sector is supply-leading.

Environmental Deterioration Response to Economic and Financial Progress, FDI, and Trade Openness in Egypt: Do Structural Breaks Matter?

This study aims to explore and evaluate the effects of economic growth, financial development, foreign direct investment, energy usage, population growth, trade-in service, and trade openness on carbon dioxide release in Egypt for the period 1977-2018. This study utilizes cointegration and structural break unit root techniques to investigate integrating features of the variables under examination and cointegration among those variables. The Toda-Yamamoto test is performed to test for causality among the variables. The unit root test, variance decomposition under the vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, impulse response function, and Granger causality under VAR environment have been applied to infer the short and long-run statistical dynamics. Empirical findings reveal that economic growth, energy usage, and total population may increase CO2 emissions. So, these factors are positively linked with environmental degradation. Besides, financial development and trade openness may improve environmental quality, as they significantly negatively affect CO2 emissions. Moreover, foreign direct investment and environmental degradation may cause each other in the Granger sense.

Time-varying causality nexus of (non)renewable electricity utilization, real output, and carbon emission among selected African states

AbstractAdding to the debate on the drivers of carbon neutrality, the perspective of time-dependent effect of crucial factors such as the renewable and conventional energy utilization should offer relevant policy for the stakeholders in the energy sector. On the empirical front, several studies have investigated the causal interaction between renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by using the conventional empirical approaches. In contrast, this study utilized a time-varying causality (TC) technique (which offers time inference) to determine the causal relationship between CO2 emission and its potential drivers such as energy source types and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, and Tunisia over the period spanning 1980Q1 and 2017Q4. Importantly, there is statistically significant evidence of causality as examined by the TC approach. For instance, causality from CO2 emission to renewable energy source for the period 2004Q1–2006Q3 and from GDP to CO2 emission during 2013Q2–2015Q3 were observed for South Africa. Moreover, the causality from non-renewable energy source to CO2 emission and from GDP to CO2 emission compares very well with Nigeria, Libya, and Algeria. Overall, the results largely indicate causality relationships among our variables for all the six countries over different time sequences. These results differ from the Toda–Yamamoto test, which only reveals a causality relationship in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. The empirical findings obtained from the time-varying causality approach are essential for designing and implementing appropriate energy policies, especially attaining these countries' Paris agreement and the Sustainable Development Goal 13 since the goals are time periodically assessed.

THE REALATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THE STOCK MARKET INDEXES OF SPORTS CLUBS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Ponte Academic JournalMay 2023, Volume 79, Issue 5 THE REALATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THE STOCK MARKET INDEXES OF SPORTS CLUBS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSISAuthor(s): Keziban Yoka ,Mehmet Behzat Turan,Aydin Pekel, Osman Yoka, Osman PepeJ. Ponte - May 2023 - Volume 79 - Issue 5 doi: 10.21506/j.ponte.2023.5.2 Abstract:The present study examines how severely the stock market indexes of the sports clubs in Turkey and Europe were affected and by which factors between 16.03.2020 and 14.12.2020 in addition to the coronavirus cases and deaths in the pandemic process using empirical methods. Additionally, the number of cases and death rates during the pandemic are analyzed graphically by country. In the empirical application section, the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test was applied. Before moving on to the causality analysis, the extended Dickey-Fuller test was used to determine whether the series possessed a unit root. In the present study, which covers the period between 16.03.2020 and 14.12.2020, the case and death data of countries were used to reveal the relationship between the stock market indexes of the sports clubs in Turkey and Europe and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. As a result of the study, no significant value was determined between the stock market index series of sports clubs and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. No short-term relationship was found between the stock market indexes of sports clubs and the number of cases and deaths. Download full text:Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution Username Password

Detection of Causality with the Toda-Yamamoto Test: An Application on Precious Metals

Tasarruf kavramı, gelir ile gider arasındaki olumlu fark şeklinde; yatırım kavramı gelecekte kullanılmak üzere bugünden fon ayırma işlemi şeklinde tanımlanmaktadır. Tasarruf imkânlarının yatırıma dönüştürülmesi, enflasyona karşı koruma sağlama, portföy değerini arttırma ve gelecekteki belirsizliklere karşı güvence oluşturma gibi avantajlar sağlamaktadır. Yatırımcıların, yatırım yapabilecekleri çeşitli enstrümanlar bulunmaktadır. Bu enstrümanlar, döviz, değerli metaller, hisse senedi, tahvil, mevduat, para ve sermaye piyasası araçları şeklinde sınıflandırılabilmektedir. Yatırımcılar, vermiş olduğu yatırım kararlarını risk algılarına göre vermektedir. Yatırımcıları döviz, borsa, kripto paralar gibi alternatiflerinin dışında, değerli metallere yatırım yapma imkânı bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, değerli metallerin getirileri arasında nedensellik olup olmadığının tespiti amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada yer alan değerli metaller, altın, gümüş, platin ve paladyum şeklindedir. Çalışmada elde edilen veriler, 01.01.2015-30.09.2021 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak Toda-Yamamoto kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, değerli metaller arasındaki nedensellik ve ilişkiler gösterilerek değerlendirilmiştir. Daha sonra gerçekleşecek çalışmalarda, değerli metaller arasındaki ilişkilerin, farklı analiz yöntemleri ve dönemler kullanılarak analiz edilmesi değerli araştırmacılara önerilmektedir.

Dış Borç Stoku, Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisinin Türkiye Açısından Analizi: 1970-2020 Dönemi için Vektör Otoregresif Model - Granger Nedensellik Testi ve Toda-Yamamoto

In a sense, in the same sense as an important external problem for developing countries as well. In cases where domestic consumption is appropriate, payments are made in foreign purchases because of low income from consumption. Although it is expressed negatively, it is possible to achieve the domestic economic balance with a good shopping external debt process. In particular, economic growth is discussed in theoretical education. The prices listed for this are among the subjects that benefit from the resources taken from the resources benefited from. Whether the economies for this environment are negative or positive from the economic point of view, it will be from the economic budget and the management. In this study, Turkey's economic 1970-2020 foreign debt, inflation and growth were tested with VAR, Granger Causality Test and Toda-Yamamoto Analysis. From the external outlook of real GDP and rollback of inflation, from the stock used to evaluate the choice of GDP and from the control of inflation, from the choice of GDP, from the buy-back of real GDP, from the external stock of real GDP and from the control of inflation from the evaluation of the choice of GDP from the external debt analysis and Select GH from external debt in the analysis of the conductivity of inflation in the choice of GDP. That's because GDP is the Granger cause. In the Toda-Yamamoto test, on the other hand, it is obtained because there is causality from external debt stock to GDP and inflation, from GDP to external debt stock and inflation, and from inflation to external debt stock and GDP.

Elektrik Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: NARDL ve Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemlerinden Kanıtlar

Çalışma, elektrik tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkisini değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye ekonomisinin 2005-2020 dönemi verileri çalışma kapsamına dahil edilmiştir. Ekonometrik analizde, çeyreklik veriler yardımıyla iki farklı yöntem uygulanmıştır. Analizin tahmin gücünü arttırmak amacıyla sanayi üretim endeksinin bağımsız değişken olarak kullanıldığı ve ekonomik büyümenin bağımlı değişken olduğu modellerde elektrik tüketiminin asimetrik etkisi NARDL modeliyle, nedensellik ilişkisi Toda-Yamamoto testiyle yansıtılmıştır. NARDL modeli bulgularına göre, ampirik uygulamanın değişkenleri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır ve analiz sonuçları eşbütünleşmenin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Diğer taraftan, elektrik tüketimindeki pozitif ve negatif değişimlerin kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkisine bakıldığında; pozitif değişimlerin büyümeyi arttırdığı, negatif değişimlerin ise büyümeyi azalttığı görülmüştür. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinde elektrik tüketiminden büyümeye doğru nedensellik çıkması, NARDL modelindeki sonucu destekler niteliktedir.