Tomorrow's Weather Research Articles

Insights into Tomorrow's Weather: An In-Depth Survey of Cloud-Integrated IoT Weather Monitoring Solutions with Flutter for Environmental Data Analysis

The device is a cutting-edge method of keeping an eye on the local weather and disseminating the data anywhere in the globe. This is made possible by Internet of Things (IoT) technology, which is a sophisticated way to connect everything to the Internet and to connect the entire globe. elements within a network The data recovered from the finished system can be viewed online from any location on the planet. It will be very challenging to monitor and check the environmental limit in the cultivating zone using cables. and simple devices during a couple of environmental bets. To overcome this problem, sensors are used here the farTo monitor and screen the environmental restrictions. We'll discuss DHT11 Humidity and Rain, FC37, and Temperature Sensor

Flowers of a South African succulent plant predict tomorrow's weather, synchronizing flower opening with pollinator activity

Abstract Day‐to‐day synchrony between flower opening and pollinator activity is important for maximizing plant fitness. A succulent, Bulbine frutescens (L.) Willd., is an ideal model for studying synchrony in response to daily weather as it flowers year‐round. Additionally, it has self‐incompatible flowers that open for just one day, making it essential that flower opening matches pollinator activity. Observations were made on urban plants in California, USA, with validation measurements in the native range in South Africa. Independent observations indicated that flowers open primarily after favourable conditions the previous day, specifically air temperatures above 15°C. Solar radiation was experimentally shown to have limited, but significant effects. Pollinators, mostly bee species, had similar temperature thresholds to flowers. Developmental constraints on flowers were hypothesized to delay opening by a day. Flower bud growth was closely related to temperature, with warm days resulting in sufficient growth for buds to become competent to open the following day. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that competent flowers were suppressed from opening until at least 16 h was accumulated in which temperatures were above 12°C; thus, on many cool days, sufficient development to cause flower opening would only occur a day after favourable weather. Based upon regression models of pollinator and flower response to weather, fitness was estimated as a function of synchrony, over 20 years of weather from California and across the natural range in South Africa. Flowers responding to either the previous day's or current day's weather resulted in similar predicted fitness, with flower response to the current day's weather leading to a slightly higher cost, that is, flowers opened when pollinators would be absent. Multiple temperature responsive constraints on bud growth and development result in delays in flower opening, such that flower opening occurs the day after favourable weather. Given the high correlation between daily temperatures in USA and South African winter‐rainfall environments, behaviour predicting the following day's weather results in high fitness. Many pollinators share similar temperature thresholds for activity, thus diverse plants may have evolved predictive behaviour maximizing daily synchrony between pollinators and flower opening. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Predicting Own Action: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Induced by Proper Scoring Rules

This paper studies a mechanism to incentivize agents who predict their own future actions and truthfully declare their predictions. In a crowdsouring setting (e.g., participatory sensing), obtaining an accurate prediction of the actions of workers/agents is valuable for a requester who is collecting real-world information from the crowd. If an agent predicts an external event that she cannot control herself (e.g., tomorrow's weather), any proper scoring rule can give an accurate incentive. In our problem setting, an agent needs to predict her own action (e.g., what time tomorrow she will take a photo of a specific place) that she can control to maximize her utility. Also, her (gross) utility can vary based on an eternal event. We first prove that a mechanism can satisfy our goal if and only if it utilizes a strictly proper scoring rule, assuming that an agent can find an optimal declaration that maximizes her expected utility. This declaration is self-fulfilling; if she acts to maximize her utility, the probabilistic distribution of her action matches her declaration, assuming her prediction about the external event is correct. Furthermore, we develop a heuristic algorithm that efficiently finds a semi-optimal declaration, and show that this declaration is still self-fulfilling. We also examine our heuristic algorithm's performance and describe how an agent acts when she faces an unexpected scenario.

A New (and Better) Interpretation of Holmes's Prediction Theory of Law

Holmes's famous 1897 theory that law is a prediction of what courts will do in fact slowly changed the way law schools taught law until, by the mid-1920s legal realism took over the curriculum. The legal realists argued that judges decide cases on all kinds of objective and subjective reasons including precedents. If law schools wanted to train future lawyers to be effective, they should be exposed to collateral subjects that might influence judges: law and society, law and literature, and so forth. But the standard interpretation has been a huge mistake. It treats law as analogous to weather forecasting: a meteorologist predicts tomorrow's weather the way an attorney predicts a future decision by a judge. But Holmes said that what a judge decides in the future is inconsequential; a person (such as a bad man) must plan his affairs on the basis of present law. Present law is nothing other than the prediction itself. It is like quantum theory: what we see is not solid matter but rather the probability of solid matter. The law that influences our behavior is itself only a probability. In consequence, the legal realists' focus on the judge is misplaced; the focus should be on the attorney.

Communicating risk and scientific uncertainty

Perception of risk can be influenced by the choice of words, numbers and pictures. Preferences and understanding vary among people, which suggests the use of multiple presentations including comparators and...

Today's Forecast: Higher Thinking With a Chance of Conceptual Growth

Weather has all the characteristics of a motivating, authentic subject: Everybody has an interest in it and strong opinions about it. This interest has provided a way to tie science to a meaningful learning activity in an introductory meteorology course for nonscience students. The pedagogical foundation of such a course is that it is more important for students in science classes to learn to think like scientists than to accumulate facts; weather forecasting allows them to progressively apply their knowledge about the atmosphere by hypothesizing the next day's weather. By forecasting tomorrow's weather repeatedly throughout the course, students are given the opportunity to link what they are learning in class to a topic to which they all relate.

An interview with Richard Powers

An interview with Richard Powers Stephen J. Burn (bio) When I traveled to meet Richard Powers for the first time, on a gray London afternoon in February 2004, I discovered a sign hung on the door of his hotel room that warned "LEAVE ME ALONE." Inside the room, the acclaimed American novelist was discussing server authentication with a computer specialist who was clearly struggling to keep up with the speed of Powers's thought. My preconceptions about this technologically adept, apparently reclusive writer seemed to be receiving early confirmation. But as we walked around London that afternoon, the reputation that Powers has for reclusiveness dropped away as he revealed himself to be a generous and outgoing conversationalist. At the same time, my supposition that Powers is immensely gifted was strengthened as he simultaneously discussed developments in fiction and read the cityscape—talking about William Gaddis, or interdisciplinarity, as he pointed out submerged traces of Christopher Wren's architectural signature. But any reader who has encountered one of Powers's deeply nuanced and intellectually rich novels will not need to be told that the Illinois-born writer is unusually talented. Over the twenty-three years since his first novel, Three Farmers on Their Way to a Dance (1985), was published, Powers has steadily constructed a body of fiction that has established him as among the most significant of contemporary American authors. His nine novels are distinguished by their intricate architecture, intertwining of multiple narrative forms, and sophisticated synthesis of diverse fields of knowledge. [End Page 163] Critics and reviewers have often praised the breadth and depth of Powers's intellectual interests—which can run from molecular biology to obscure Flemish painting within the space of a few pages in a single novel—but the global range of his knowledge is matched by his concern for the planet. Powers's work is motivated by an ecological vision that tries to probe the glistening veneer of contemporary media reality—its hyped technologies, its enthralled consumerism—to reach the axis of interconnected life that lies beneath. To do this, Powers's fiction views the world from a long perspective, alert to evolutionary scales of time and informed by the nonlinear interactions of natural systems—in other words (as Powers, paraphrasing Edward Lorenz's pioneering work on weather systems, writes in Prisoner's Dilemma [1988]), the way that "a butterfly flapping its wings in Peking propagates an unpredictable chain reaction of air currents, ultimately altering tomorrow's weather in Duluth." Nothing takes place in isolation in Powers's work. Small events can have large consequences, as environment and individual reciprocally shape and direct each other. Powers's ecological vision does not, however, stand free of his work's formal qualities. His books are arranged to stress homologies between form and content, so that what Powers calls, in The Gold Bug Variations (1991), "the complex web of interdependent nature" becomes the model for his fiction. Just as ecological thinkers reacted against a naive reductionist focus on the part rather than the whole, so Powers's novels become interdependent systems where, rather than focusing on one kind of exposition, different discourses work together to create aesthetic effects. This means that rather than privileging the realist prejudice that showing is, for some reason, inherently superior to telling, Powers's books are constructed out of mixed modes, synthesizing essayistic narration, self-referring commentary, and even poetry alongside relatively traditional stretches of mimetic narrative. These multiple modes act to create a kind of perspectivism, historicizing and contextualizing action and underlining the fact that "[t]he world," as Powers told one interviewer, "isn't simply taking place at eye-level view, there's lots going on above us and below us" (Salon 1998). In practical terms, this means, for example, that in The Gold Bug Variations, Powers contextualizes the paired stories of an old scientist's decline and a young couple's [End Page 164] mating dance, with specialized essays on the biological processes that underwrite and dictate the great themes of the novel, love and death. By contrast, Powers's sixth novel, Gain (1998), represents the photographic negative of Gold Bug's concentration on the molecular foundations of life. If...

The future of everything: the science of prediction

Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos? A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow's weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

Using Hermeneutic Phenomenology to Elicit a Sense of Body at Mid-Life

In this article, the author demonstrates how a phenomenological approach may be used to describe the changes of women's bodies at menopause. In Korea, the middle age of Korean women has been referred as the golden age and autumn season, and which means Korean thing highly of internal mature rather than external facts. When Korean women experience menopausal, they feel they are in the middle of storm, and just have passed by in the time. They can expert and feel tomorrow's weather by the changes of their body. While the experience menopausal, they can extremely perceive changes of their body, and at the same time, incidence rate of breast cancer is no the increase. Mastectomy has serious effects on both women's body and spirit. Phenomenological analysis on the changes of body shows that the middle age women of Korea feel “Evidently visible scratches of years”, “My body is a live weather forecaster”, “Khi is getting weaker”, “Being fearful suddenly but too late”, “The more aged, the more precious life becomes”, “Being comfortable is better than being beautiful”, “Wish to go back to their past”, “Intense desire for re- challenging life”, “Better friends than husband”. In conclusion, there of no way to fully understand someone without knowing one's lived experience within the cultural context. To understand artificial changes by surgery as well as natural ones, and even to do holistic nursing, qualitative research is essentially required.

Bayesian Image Analysis

Bayes′ theorem is a vehicle for incorporating prior knowledge in updating the degree of belief in light of data. For example, the state of tomorrow′s weather can be predicted using belief or likelihood of tomorrow′s weather given today′s weather data. We give a brief review of the recent advances in the area with emphasis on high‐level Bayesian image analysis. It has been gradually recognised that knowledge‐based algorithms based on Bayesian analysis are more widely applicable and reliable than ad hoc algorithms. Advantages include the use of explicit and realistic statistic models making it easier to understand the working behind such algorithms and allowing confidence statements to be made about conclusions. These systems are not necessarily as time consuming as might be expected. However, more care is required in using the knowledge effectively for a given specific problem; this is very much an art rather than a science.

Tomorrow's weather forecast: automatic code generation for atmospheric modeling

The Ctadel programming environment transforms high-level partial differential equation (PDE) problem specifications into efficient codes for serial, vector and parallel computer architectures using computing-cost heuristics and architecture-specific symbolic transformations. Ctadel-generated codes for the Hirlam weather forecasting system perform comparably with handwritten codes.

Professor Gutmann Replies

o An equation can do a good job of forecasting without affording us much insight into underlying causes. We can forecast tomorrow's weather, for example, by assuming it will resemble today's. But if we content ourselves with this model, we will miss many of the important causal elements behind weather, including the seasons. A currency model may happen to predict future currency demand well, without explaining anything about the reason for this demand and, in fact, while ignoring many important causal elements. For example, demand deposits have an implicit yield measured by the value of services (such as check transferal and safekeeping) per unit time divided by the average amount on deposit. This yield has been rising over the past quarter century; one would thus expect that, other things equal, the demand for demand deposits would rise and the demand for currency would fall. That Professor Garcia's currency demand model has successfully predicted currency demand despite the fact that it leaves out this important causal element (among others) can be explained by two facts. One, both the amount of currency and the model's two principal explanatory variables (GNP and interest rates) have been rising rapidly over the time period. Two, the model also includes as an explanatory variable the previous period's currency amount; i.e., today will be sunny because yesterday was sunny. Thus its success gives us no assurance that it includes the important explanatory factors including the subterranean economy. o

Desires as Causes of Actions

It is not easy to explain how people know what they are going to do. The phenomenon occurs: obviously we often do know what we are going to do; but its explanation is less obvious. When I say this, I do not mean that we have some mysterious method by which we discover what we are going to do, like forecasting tomorrow's weather. Usually we know without any investigation, and without the use of any method of discovery. You know some of the things that you are going to do tomorrow immediately – i.e. you know them without the mediation of any evidence. This is a rather mysterious phenomenon, and it is not at all easy to classify it. How is it possible for there to be any immediate knowledge of something which lies in the future? Is it like the kind of immediate knowledge of the past which is supplied by memory? If so, does this analogy help us to understand our knowledge of our own future actions? Or is memory equally mysterious?

A Pioneer Diary from Wisconsin

by MALCOLM ROSHOLT 7 A Pioneer Diary from Wisconsin Knut I was Halverson a boy. A passed small man our house with a many short, times full beard, when I was a boy. A small man with a short, full beard, he was then living in retirement north of the Rosholt millpond . On his trips for groceries he followed the path along the gravel road running south into the village. When he had more groceries than he could carry for Berthe - his serene partner in marriage - he pushed a small wooden wheelbarrow , but with the wheelbarrow or without it he walked with short, shuffling steps, head slightly askew and shoulders hunched forward as if at any moment he might stumble on a pebble and fall. Yet he never did. In retrospect it seems likely that this posture of his marked a certain dogged persistence . He was a pioneer settler in our county and in his younger days he had kept a diary which may be the most significant early document relating to Portage County, Wisconsin, in the Norwegian language.** In the ordinary humdrum of life a man who starts a diary seldom finishes it. Knut Halverson, who emigrated to Wisconsin from Norway in 1865, kept on with his. Perhaps he was turning a page in time that should be recorded. And yet * Through the courtesy of Mr. Rosholt, the Halverson diary has been presented to the Norwegian- American Historical Association. k. o. b. 198 A PIONEER DIARY in all he wrote he seldom made any significant comment about his adopted country, its politics, or its economic opportunities . For example, at various times in 1876 he mentions that he attended a town meeting or a fall election, or had a visit from the town assessor, but he does not remark on whether the meeting was interesting, whom he voted for, or whether the assessment was a fair one. On the Fourth of July, 1876 the centennial year of American independence - he mentions "America's Independence Day," but makes no reference to its significance. He had spent the day clearing land with a Polish neighbor. He makes no special comment about the Seventeenth of May, the Norwegian national holiday, but writes, as usual, about the weather and having finished sowing the oats and harrowing. The first entry in the diary, kept in a ledgerlike book, is dated May 6, 1872, but it begins on page 79, which suggests that earlier entries are missing. The last entries were made in 1878, and here too it appears that a number of pages are lost. The years between 1872 and 1878 lack many pages; nevertheless, the remnants make up a fairly comprehensive picture of pioneer farm life on the Wisconsin frontier through at least one year - 1876 - and, to some extent, for the entire six-year period. If Halverson kept a diary in the 1880's after he moved east into Alban Township, Portage County, there is no record of it, but one for portions of 1889 and of the early 1890's does exist. Excerpts from it first appeared in translation in my Town 25 North ( [Rosholt, Wisconsin,] 1948). At that time none of the surviving members of the Halverson family knew that their father kept a diary in the 1870's. This was discovered in 1953 when Mrs. Nellie (Halverson) Peterson found a ledger in her home in Ironwood, Michigan, and, knowing of my interest in local history, sent it to me. What, then, is there about this diary, that we should take the time to translate its almost illegible Norwegian into English ? At first glance it appears to be primarily concerned with the daily weather report, which, to a later generation inter199 Malcolm Rosholt ested in tomorrow's weather, not yesterday's, is scarcely worth reading. But the comments and information that often follow the weather report do interest us, for here we learn, not what effect the diarist has on the weather, but how this weather and his new American environment influence him. Probably the parents of Knut Halverson, Halver and Margit Brekke-Pladsen of Lower Telemark, had considered emigrating to America with their seven children for some time. The Civil...

Tomorrow's weather report will be clear and dependable

Tomorrow's weather report will be clear and dependable

(1) Weather Prediction (2) Forecasting Weather

THESE two books deal essentially with the same problem, that of forecasting tomorrow's weather, but they will appeal to different classes of readers. According to the publisher's note on the cover, Major Lester's book combines the functions of supplying the serious student of meteorology with an introduction to the deeper study of the subject and of supplying the amateur forecaster with an infallible guide. Some experience of trying to forecast to-morrow's weather has, however, convinced the present reviewer that no infallible guide to forecasting can be provided, either for the professional or the amateur meteorologist. Sir Napier Shaw has produced a third edition of his “Forecasting Weather”, which appears to be intended for the scientific student of the subject. It is, perhaps, not unfair to say that while Major Lester has described the observed phenomena and their associations, Sir Napier Shaw has endeavoured to describe and to explain the phenomena in which he is interested. (1) Weather Prediction By Major R. M. Lester. Pp. 256. (London: Hutchinson's Scientific and Technical Publications, 1940.) 10s. 6d. net. (2) Forecasting Weather By Sir Napier Shaw. Third edition, with a Supplementary Note on Sixteen Years' Progress in Forecasting Weather, by R. G. K. Lempfert. Pp. xliii + 644. (London: Constable and Co., Ltd., 1940.) 42s. net.

Negro Higher and Professional Education in 1943

Predictions concerning the objectives which Negro higher and professional education should attain by 1943 may be regarded somewhat in the same light as predictions concerning the state of tomorrow's weather; there is ever present the probability that unforeseen developments might prove false what has been the work of careful observation of conditions and trends. It is true, however, that the forces which determine educational needs are evolutional rather than revolutional in nature, and their slow rate of movement makes possible a type of critical estimation not permitted the analyst of tomorrow's weather. The existence of this fact gives rise to the belief that we may safely approximate the influence of present-day trends upon educational practice ten years hence. But the term higher as applied to education carries along with it a peculiar social implication unsuitable for the purpose of this discussion. Education is, I believe, not to be measured in terms of position or quantity but in terms of degree or quality. It may be broader, it may be advanced, but, in my opinion, not higher. As the term higher is an integral part of the subject assigned me, I retain it but wish to make clear that in my use of it I mean education that is broader-education that is advanced. I