Time-varying Term Premia Research Articles

Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area

Identifying the components of yields is a challenging task for monetary authorities. We use a term structure model with stochastic volatility and eurozone global macro factors to estimate time-varying term premia and short rate expectations for ten countries in the euro area. Unlike previous studies, we explicitly disentangle from these components the convexity effects that have substantial impact on long-term yields in turbulent times. The empirical evidence shows that term premia are significantly positively related to yield volatility across all countries, while term premia and expected short rates react in opposite directions to shocks in eurozone inflation and GDP growth expectations. A connectedness analysis based on variance decomposition suggests that there exist significant cross-country interconnections for the yield components, with the size of the links varying substantially over time and across countries.

Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps

Fundamentally, the term premium in long-term nominal yields is compensation to investors for bearing interest rate risk. There is substantial evidence of sizable and time-varying term premia. As opposed to yields, term premia are not directly observable. In this paper, we estimate term premia in Norwegian interest rate swaps from a set of dynamic term structure models, covering the period from 2001/04 until 2022/06. In line with international studies, we find evidence of declining term premia over the sample period. Furthermore, our estimates indicate that term premia have been close to zero, as well as negative in periods, during the last decade of global extraordinary monetary policy measures. We find that the recent rise in Norwegian interest rate swaps is partly caused by increases in term premia. From a practitioner’s perspective, our term premia estimates can be utilized as part of applied management of both investment and debt portfolios.

Forecasting bond returns in a macro model

We construct predicting factors based on the predictive errors of bond yields and macro variables implied by a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the predictability of excess bond returns. Our predictors consist of two pieces of information. The predictive errors on bond yields capture the time-varying term premiums missing from the linearized DSGE model, and the predictive errors on macro variables reflect the macro risks that are un-spanned by the yield curve. Predictive regressions of one-year excess bond returns indicate that our predictors outperform the CP factor in Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). We further relate the bond risk premiums to the inflation target. We find that bond risk premiums vary over time with the inflation target, and are earned as compensation for exposure to innovations of the inflation target. Finally, we show that the predictive errors of bond yields implied by a second-order approximation of the DSGE model still have considerable predictive power on excess returns.

Term premia in affine term structure models with unspanned macroeconomic factors: The case of Korea

Using the yield data for Korean government bonds, I examine several discrete-time affine term structure models with unspanned macro factors, such as output and inflation, and compares term premia implied from alternative models with different combinations of output and inflation variables. Empirical analysis shows that, except for 1-year maturity ones, there is little difference among the medium- to long-term term premia across alternative models. The model-implied term premium estimates do not show a significant pro- or counter-cyclicality in relation to output variables, but show a highly positive correlation with inflation variables. In addition, I test the traditional expectation hypothesis by fitting Campbell-Shiller long-rate regressions to the Korean bond data, the expectation hypothesis is strongly rejected as in the case of the US, due to time-varying term premia, and an additional Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that the term structure models considered in this paper show a success in matching the regression coefficients estimated from the sample.

Back to the Real Economy: The Effects of Risk Perception Shocks on the Term Premium and Bank Lending

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework that can account for important macroeconomic and financial moments, given Epstein-Zin preferences, heterogeneous banking and third-order approximation methods that yield a time-varying term premium that feeds back to the real economy. A risk perception shock increases term premia, lowers output, and reduces short-term credit in the private sector in response to higher loan rates and constrained borrowers, as banks rebalance their portfolios. A ‘bad’ credit boom, driven by investors mispricing risk, leads to a more severe recession and is less supportive of economic growth than a ‘good’ credit boom based on fundamentals.

Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil

We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations, and bond yields in Brazil. We find strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is key to transmitting monetary policy shocks to the yield curve via time-varying term premia. Finally, Fed announcements have sizeable spillover effects on the Brazilian bond market, as positive shocks to US yields significantly raise term premia in Brazil through elevated exchange rate risk.

Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the impact of long-term interest rates on macroeconomic variables in a small open economy. It shows that the time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP without affecting significantly inflation volatility in Poland – a typical open economy with flexible exchange rate. This conclusion is drawn from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which segmented asset markets and imperfect asset substitutability give rise to the time-varying term premium in the long-term interest rate. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis of the model reveals that the term premium stabilizes GDP when the small economy is hit by shocks that are absent in closed economy models (country risk premium and export preference) which points to the different impact of the term premium on relatively close (large) and open (small) economies.

Term Premium Dynamics and the Taylor Rule

We explore the bond-pricing implications of an exchange economy where preference shocks result in time-varying term premiums in real yields with a Taylor rule determining inflation dynamics and nominal term premiums. We calibrate the model by matching the term structure of the means and volatilities of nominal yields. Unlike a model with exogenous inflation, a Taylor rule matching empirical properties of inflation leads to nominal term premiums that are volatile at long maturities. Increasing monetary policy aggressiveness decreases the level and volatility of nominal yields.

The Term Structure of Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little indication of a time-varying term premium. Turning the focus to individual stocks, we cannot reject the expectations hypothesis for systematic variance, but we strongly reject it for idiosyncratic variance. Our results are robust to jumps and potential statistical biases.

Time-Varying Risk Premiums and Term Premiums in Commodity Futures

Term premiums, defined as the excess return of long-dated contracts over short-dated contracts, in commodity futures are strongly predictable, both in the time series and in the cross section, by roll yield spreads. Strategies that exploit this predictability show sizable Sharpe ratios and are uncorrelated with strategies that exploit predictability in risk premiums using the basis in futures prices, that is, use contango and backwardation conditions in futures market to develop their strategies. <b>TOPICS:</b>Commodities, futures and forward contracts, performance measurement

A re-examination of expectation hypothesis with time varying term premium

Since the expectation hypothesis was proposed, scholars have done a lot of research on it. We can see the important role of expectation hypothesis in finance. This paper also studies the expectation hypothesis on the term structure of interest rates. Our analysis is built upon the time-varying term premium. Fully conforming to what conjectured by the classical expectation hypothesis, the slope of the yield curve, together with the time-varying and stochastic term premium, is found to be useful for predicting the evolution of the bond yields. We use partial least squares to extract the single predictor from macroeconomic variables and use macroeconomic factor to predict time-varying term premium. The results give the evidence to support the time-varying term premium and the expectation hypothesis.

Do Long Term Interest Rates Drive GDP and Inflation in Small Open Economies? Evidence from Poland

I show that the long term interest rate that includes a time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP and it does not affect significantly inflation volatility in Poland. I derive this result from an estimated DSGE model of a small open economy. GDP volatility would have been much higher if the endogenous part of the term premium had been switched off in the model, while the inflation volatility has not been affected by the presence of the term premium. At the same time, the term premium shock had only a minor impact on GDP and inflation volatilities which suggests that the QE programs conducted by the major central banks did not have a substantial impact on the Polish economy.

Surprises, sentiments, and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

This study shows that time-varying coefficients in the term structure of interest rates equation are correlated with the time-varying term premiums (TVTP) and expectation error (EE). Consistent with Froot (J Finance 44:283–305, 1989), TVTP and EE are the main factors that cause variations in the expectations hypothesis. Once the TVTP and the EE are appropriately incorporated into the model, the GARCH-M evidence fades away. This study documents that investors’ sentiment and macroeconomic surprises are the main driving forces behind the TVTP and EE. Evidence of significant sentiment and its interacting with macroeconomic surprises shed some light on the bias due to behavioral variations.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in an Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model

We jointly estimate a New Keynesian Policy Model with a Gaussian affine no-arbitrage specification of the term structure of interest rates, and assess how important inflation, output and monetary policy shocks are as sources of fluctuations in interest rates and the term premium. To mitigate computational difficulties, we work with observable pricing factors only and utilize the computationally convenient normalization of Joslin et al. (2013b). This allows us to estimate the model without needing to restrict the parameters driving the market prices of risk. Using data for the U.S. from 1962:Q1 to 2014:Q2, we find that inflation and the output gap account for around 80% of the unconditional forecast error variance of bond yields at the short and medium end of the term structure, while monetary policy shocks account for around 20%. Our impulse response function analysis suggests that bond yields respond to macroeconomic shocks only gradually, peaking after about 4 quarters. This is due to sizable monetary policy inertia estimates in our model. At the peak of the response, inflation shocks increase bond yields by more than one-to-one, while output shocks do so by less than one-to-one, which is consistent with a Taylor type monetary policy rule. Our estimated time-varying term premium is strongly counter-cyclical. Moreover, we show that it can capture salient features of the term structure that constitute a puzzle in the expectations hypothesis, that is, LPY(i) and LPY(ii).

Cross-Country Co-Movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach

Long-term interest rates in a number of small open inflation-targeting economies co-move more strongly with US long-term rates than with short-term rates in those economies. We augment a standard small open economy model with imperfectly substitutable government bonds and time-varying term premia, that captures this phenomenon. The estimated model fits a range of US and UK data remarkably well, and produces term premium estimates that are comparable to estimates from the affine term structure model literature. We find that the strong co-movement between US and UK long-term interest rates arises primarily via correlated policy rate expectations, rather than through correlated term premia. This is due to policymakers in both economies responding to foreign productivity and discount factor shocks that cause persistent changes in inflation. We also overcome the common failure of similar models to account for the large influence of foreign disturbances on domestic economies found empirically, where in our model around 40% of the variation in UK GDP can be explained by shocks originating in the US economy.

Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects

AbstractThis paper suggests a new empirical methodology of testing the predictions of the term spread between long and short-term interest rates about future changes of the former allowing for term premium effects, according to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. To capture the effects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on an empirically attractive affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved state variables. To retrieve accurate values of these variables from interest rates series, the paper suggests a new method which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors inherent in these series on the estimates of the model. This method is assessed by a Monte Carlo study. Ignoring these errors will lead to biased estimates of term structure models. The empirical results of the paper provide support for the suggested term structure model. They show that this model can efficiently capture the time-varying term premium effects embodied in long-term interest rates, which can explain the failures of term spread to forecast future changes in long-term rates.

Term Spread Regressions of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Allowing for Risk Premium Effects

This paper suggests term spread regression based tests allowing for time-varying term premium effects, with the aim of explaining the empirical failures of the term spread to forecast future movements in interest rates. To capture the e¤ects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on a simple and empirically attractive arbitrage-free Gaussian dynamic term structure model, which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved factors. To retrieve these factors from the data, the paper suggests a new empirically methodology which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors on the estimates of the unobserved factors, and our tests. The results of the paper indicate that term spread regressions allowing for a time-varying term premium effects can provide unbiased estimates of future changes of long-term interest rates, as predicted by the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure.

Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure with permanent-transitory component models

This study proposes a new application of Permanent-Transitory Component Models (PTCMs) to test the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS). Unlike previous approaches, tests based on PTCMs can simultaneously detect departures from rational expectations and time varying term premia. We set out analytically and empirically the links across previous tests and PTCMs. We also show that PTCMs identify an additional restriction for rational expectations, on top of the one-to-one relationship between forward and spot rates, that must be imposed in estimations of term premia. Data for the short-end of the US term structure suggest that both factors contribute to the rejection of the EHTS. Moreover, the empirical estimates of term premia are persistent and exhibit sign fluctuations. Their stochastic properties depend crucially on whether the additional restriction for rational expectations is imposed in estimation.

The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?

Recent studies of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) find evidence in favor of the EHTS using post 1980s US data. This has been attributed to the relative macro stability of this period and greater market efficiency. Using a panel of forecasts for 3-month interest rates for ten countries we test separately for EHTS and rational expectations. Assuming rational expectations holds we find support for the EHTS is illusory due to an off-setting time-varying term premia and non-rational expectations. Previous forecast-based studies suggest biased expectations tend to reinforce the effect of a time varying term premium. This change can be understood in the context of Fama’s (2006) argument that markets tend to underestimate future spot rates during periods of long-run increases and overestimate during declines.

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of LIBOR US Dollar Interest Rates

Using the monthly sampled data on LIBOR US dollar interest rates and maturities ranging from 1 to 12 months from 1995 to 2009 we provide with a number of tests of the expecta-tions hypothesis based on a 3-variable VAR allowing for a time-varying term premium. We find some evidence against the expectations hypothesis. The term premia appear to vary in time and the yield spread has a good predictive power, however the long rates under-react to current infor-mation about future short rates. Unexpected changes in holding period returns to large extent depend upon revisions to forecasts about future short rates and to small extent upon revisions to future term premia.