Time Series Regression Analysis Research Articles

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric emergency department use: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022

BackgroundThe use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic is debated. Understanding the consequences these measures may have on vulnerable populations including children and adolescents is important.MethodsThis is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study involving 12 hospitals of the North Italian Emilia-Romagna Region, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (SC) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase (MM) with milder restrictions. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was used to calculate PED Standardized Incidence Rate Ratios (SIRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest frequency and/or variation.ResultsIn the 60 months of the study there were 765,215 PED visits. Compared to the pre-pandemic rate, overall PED presentations dropped by 58 and 39% during SC and MM, respectively. “Symptoms, signs and Ill-defined conditions,” “Injury and poisoning” and “Diseases of the Respiratory System” accounted for 74% of the reduction. A different pattern was instead seen for “Mental Disorders,” which exhibited the smallest decrease during SC, and is the only category which rose already at the end of SC. ITS analysis confirmed the strong decrease during SC (level change, IRR 0.17, 95%CI 0.12–0.27) and a significant increase in MM (slope change, IRR 1.23, 95%CI 1.13–1.33), with the sharpest decline (−94%) and rise (+36%) observed in the “Diseases of the Respiratory System” category. Mental Disorders showed a significant increasing trend of 1% monthly over the whole study period exceeding pre-pandemic levels at the end of MM. Females and adolescents showed higher increasing rates both in SC and MM.ConclusionNPIs appear to have influenced PED attendance in different ways according to diagnostic categories, mirroring different mechanisms of action. These effects are beneficial in some cases and harmful in others, and establishing a clear balance between pros and cons is a difficult task for public health decision makers. The role of NPIs on PED use appropriateness deserves investigation. The rise in pediatric mental disorders independent of the pandemic makes interventions addressing these issues urgent.

Different factors affecting the real estate market in the Egyptian context

Purpose Real estate projects are capital-intensive and deeply intertwined with economic factors, making them subject to various influences besides local housing needs. This paper aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, examining real estate cycles, driving factors and their correlation and scale of impact. Design/methodology/approach The study conducts a literature review to explore real estate cycles and their driving factors, along with the relationship between real estate and macroeconomic cycles. It then delves into the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, followed by a time series analysis that incorporates five key indicators: economic indicator, demand indicator, supply indicator, capital flow indicator and cost indicator over a 12-year interval (2012–2023), to examine short-term cycle factors, followed by correlation and multi-linear regression analysis to elucidate interrelations among these factors. Findings Through measuring and comparing the prementioned indicators with different economic and social events, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic environment and the real estate cycle in Egypt. Where demand has been found to be more sensitive and directly affected by macroeconomic factors than the supply. With the economic factor as the factor with the highest impact, especially in times of economic fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and short-term. These findings support the idea that the demand in Egypt is speculative, laying a threat of longer recession periods in the long term and having greater and more direct impact. Originality/value This paper contributes to the understanding of the Egyptian real estate market by integrating insights from real estate cycles, macroeconomics and specific market dynamics. The application of time series, correlation and multi-linear regression analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between several factors shaping the real estate cycle. Ultimately, the findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers involved in urban development planning, facilitating more informed and precise decision-making processes.

The Effects of Admission Policies on Rates of Family Migration in European States, 2008–2019

This study investigates whether and how much family migration policies have influenced patterns of family migration in European states. Family migration has been the largest category of entry in many Western countries in recent decades, and it has been the subject of increasing contestation in political debates. While research on family migration policies has advanced in recent years, no comprehensive cross-country comparisons have been done of the impact of different policies on the size and composition of family migrant inflows. This study addresses this gap by analysing the connection between admission policies and rates of family migration in 31 European states during the 2008 to 2019 period. Combining data from Eurostat and the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX), this study uses a time-series regression analysis to assess the effects of admission policies on different types of family related immigration. While restrictive admission policies have led to falling overall levels of family migration, the analysis here reveals stratifying implications, whereby the effect has been greater where the sponsor is a non-EU citizen than where he/she is an EU citizen. By providing evidence on the differential impacts of admission policies on family related immigration, this study contributes new insights on the effects of restrictive migration policies.

Female Labor-Force Participation as Suicide Prevention: A Population Study in Taiwan

Objective Female labor-force participation (FLFP) has been theorized as contributing to higher suicide rates, including among women. Evidence on this relationship, however, has been mixed. This study explored the association between FLFP and suicide in an understudied context, Taiwan, and across 40-years. Methods Annual national labor-participation rates for women ages 25–64, and female and male suicide-rates, for 1980–2020, were obtained from Taiwan’s Department of Statistics. The associations between FLFP rates and sex/age-stratified suicide-rates, and between FLFP rates and male-to-female suicide-rates ratios were assessed via time-series regression-analyses, accounting for autoregressive effects. Results Higher FLFP rates were associated with lower female suicide-rates (ß = −0.06, 95% CI (Credibility Interval) = [−0.19, −0.01]) in the adjusted model. This association held in the age-stratified analyses. Associations for FLFP and lower male suicide-rates were observed in the ≥45 age-groups. FLFP rates were significantly and positively associated with widening male-to-female suicide-rates ratios in the adjusted model (ß = 0.24, 95% CI = [0.03, 0.59]). Conclusion This study’s findings suggest that FLFP protects women from suicide, and point to the potential value of FLFP as a way of preventing suicide. In Taiwan, employed women carry a double-load of paid and family unpaid care-work. Child care-work is still done by mothers, often with grandmothers’ support. Therefore, this study’s findings contribute to evidence that doing both paid work and unpaid family care-work has more benefits than costs, including in terms of suicide-protection. Men’s disengagement from family care-work may contribute to their high suicide rates, despite their substantial labor-force participation.

Fama and French Three Factor Model

This study seeks to investigate the application of FF3FM in the Nigerian stock market. The study examined the behaviour of stock returns in relation to market beta, firm size (market equity), and book-to-market equity (BE/ME) factors. Sixty- eight (68) sample size was selected from all stocks quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) from 2013 to 2022. Time series regression analysis was adopted. Monthly excess portfolio returns were regressed on firm size, excess market returns and book-to-market-equity ratio. The findings showed a strong correlation between book-to-market equity variables, firm size, and excess stock market returns and predicted portfolio returns. This suggests that the variation in stock returns in the Nigerian stock market can be explained by the FF3FM.

Implementation of the 2015 American Thyroid Association guideline changes across a health system: A quality improvement opportunity

BackgroundWith the release of the 2015 management guidelines, the American Thyroid Association narrowed the indications for postoperative radioactive iodine (RAI) in well-differentiated thyroid cancer. However, the adoption of new guidelines varies between healthcare entities. The goal of this study was to characterize the appropriateness of RAI use within our health system, before and after the 2015 guideline changes. MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients who were treated for well-differentiated thyroid cancer between 2011–2020. Patients were characterized as “undertreated,” “appropriately treated,” or “overtreated” with RAI. Variation in RAI use was assessed using interrupted time series and multivariable logistic regression analyses. ResultsAmong 6310 patients, the mean age was 50 ± 15 years, and 74% were female. There was an immediate drop in the likelihood of receiving RAI after the release of the 2015 guidelines (p = 0.016), and the likelihood of receiving RAI therapy continued to significantly decline over time (OR 0.83, p < 0.001). Despite this trend in the absolute rate of RAI use, there was a significant increase in overtreatment with RAI after the release of the 2015 guidelines (p < 0.001), indicating imperfect uptake of the new criteria. Two hospitals within the health system were identified as disproportionate contributors to overtreatment (Hospital 4: OR 6.50, p < 0.001; Hospital 6: OR 8.63, p < 0.001). ConclusionsWhile the use of postoperative RAI was largely appropriate across our health system, rates of guideline adherence differed between hospitals. Efforts to standardize treatment protocols systemwide may enable more rapid and consistent uptake of new management guidelines.

Determinants of Household Savings

The household savings growth in Malaysia has shown a great declining trend annually. The main causes of these deteriorating patterns could have been due to low-income levels, overspending, economic conditions as well as uncertainties that people are facing daily. In deliberating this issue further, this study has empirically examined factors affecting household savings in Malaysia. The analysis was based on time-series data gathered from World Bank Data and the Department of Statistics of Malaysia from 1970 until 2020. The time series regression analysis was used to examine the significant influence on the dependent variable, savings, by independent variables, which consist of income level, interest rate, and money supply. The findings from this study revealed that income level and money supply have significant positive influences on savings, while interest rate has an insignificant influence on savings. Through these findings, policymakers have to formulate a suitable policy that can cushion the impact of macroeconomic variables on the level of savings in the country.

Globalization and Liberalization in Social Policy Expansion: Testing the Compensation and Efficiency Hypotheses in Brazil

This article examines four potential strategies of the Brazilian welfare system in the face of increasing liberalization and globalization since the 1970s. We test whether liberalization and economic globalization hurt the expansion of social expenditure (the efficiency hypothesis or race to the bottom hypothesis) or whether the welfare system expands as a response to the volatility caused by liberalization and globalization (compensation hypothesis). We employ time-series regression analysis to panel data from 1970 to 2015. We controlled for economic (wealth and GDP growth) and political factors (strength of the left and effective competition of parties in the lower house). We identify different strategies followed by the welfare system through the period analyzed. However, two strategies are dominant in the long run: A neoliberal strategy when the impact of globalization is considered (efficiency hypothesis) and an embedded neoliberal strategy when the effect of liberalization is pondered (compensation hypothesis).

Inter-regional patient mobility in decentralised Spain: Explaining regional budget imbalances.

Inter-regional patient mobility represents both a resource and a challenge for the organization and financing of health systems, particularly in decentralised countries. We use cross-sectional time series regression analysis to test the determinants of imbalances in regional funds to finance inter-regional patient mobility for the 17 Spanish regions for the period 2014-2020. The findings indicate that highly specialised health centres and bilateral agreements partly explain the budget imbalance from inter-regional patient referrals, while local tourism partly explains the budget imbalance from non-referred patient mobility. Developing effective national schemes to compensate net patient recipient regions would be fundamental to addressing territorial imbalances.

Effects of diurnal temperature range on diarrhea in the subtropical megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh

IntroductionWhile numerous studies have assessed the association of diarrhea with temperature, few have addressed the relationship between within-day variation of temperature and diarrhea. Materials and methodsWe investigated the association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and daily counts of hospitalizations for all-cause diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh using time series regression analysis employing distributed lag-linear models. Defining DTRs below 10th, 5th and 1st percentiles as low, very low and extremely low DTR, and DTRs above 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles as high, very high and extremely high DTRs, we additionally analyzed the effects of extreme DTR on diarrhea hospitalization. Effects were assessed for all ages, under-5 children and by gender. ResultsAlthough we did not find any significant effects of overall DTR and large DTRs, we detected significant effects of small DTRs on diarrhea hospitalization in all subgroups. A unit rise in low, very low and extremely low DTR was associated with a 4.9 % (95 % CI: 3.6 – 6.2), 7.1 % (95 % CI: 5.4 – 8.9) and 11.8 % (95 % CI: 8.3 – 15.5) increase in all-cause diarrhea hospitalization in all ages, respectively. A unit increase in low, very low and extremely low DTR was associated with a 4.9 %, 5.1 % and 18.4 % increase in all-cause diarrhea hospitalization in children under 5 years of age, respectively. The impact of extremely low DTR varied by gender (16.2 % in females versus 10.1 % in males). The effect of extremely low DTR was most pronounced in children under 5 years of age. ConclusionLess variation in within-day temperatures is a risk factor for diarrhea hospitalization in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal pathways and identify the preventive measures necessary to mitigate the impacts of lowering DTRs on diarrhea.

Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019.

Objectives. To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Methods. We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November-March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change. Results. Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided. Conclusions. Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor. Public Health Implications. Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(4):398-402. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).

Unlocking the Sustainable Workplace Equality Policy (SWEP): Evidence from an Emerging Country

Businesses are actively integrating sustainability principles into their operations by pursuing goals that go beyond reputation management, which all help companies capture value through growth and return on investment. This study aimed to investigate the current status of the Sustainable Workplace Equality Policy (SWEP) in an emerging country—Kuwait—and how it impacts firms’ financial and market performance. This study included companies listed in the Kuwait Boursa (Boursa Kuwait is the operator of the Kuwait Stock Exchange) in the period between 2016 and 2021. A disclosure index was prepared for SWEP based on guidelines provided by a combination of various sources and standards such as the Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) Standard, S&amp;P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, Dow Jones Sustainability Index, United Nations Global Compact, and KPMG Sustainability Reporting Standards. Time series regression analysis was used to examine the hypotheses of this study which were developed using Rawls’ Theory of Justice (1971). The results revealed a strong positive relationship between SWEP disclosure and firm measures of financial performance. The results also indicate that SWEP is value-relevant and affects firms’ market value, suggesting that investors consider firms’ disclosure of SWEP when making investment decisions in Kuwait. The results of the current study are of interest to several stakeholders, especially investors and policymakers. Specifically, this study is relevant to the Kuwaiti Government, which has defined a clear path for sustainable growth with the Vision 2035/New Kuwait initiative that is aimed at transforming the country into a financial and commercial hub for the region by 2035.

Evaluation of Growth Parameters in Post Larvae Catfish in Relation to Feed Types

The aim of this research is to evaluate growth parameters in post larvae catfish in relation to feed types. This study will analyze the trend for length of Claria gariepinus fed on commercial feed, maggot and zooplankton; analyze the trend of weight of Claria gariepinus fed on commercial feed, maggot and zooplankton; analyze the relationship between length and weight and; make forecasts for the length and weight of the fish fed on the specified feed types. Artificial reproduction of African Catfish (C geriepinus) was carried out using the hypophysation technique. Brood stocks were selected from centrally located parent stock holding ponds. Males and females were conditioned in separate ponds. The brood stocks were fed with 20% crude protein formulated feed, acclimatized for three weeks, then transferred into the hatchery holding tanks between 240 Celsius and 270 Celsius to stimulate ovulation after injecting the females with 0.5ml of ovalin. Fertilized eggs were incubated in continuous flow of water until hatching was completed. A commercial starter feed consisting of 8% ash, 6% fiber, 12% NFE, 1.5% calcium, 1.6% sodium, 1.5% phosphorous and sufficient amount of essential vitamins was administered to the larvae. Larvae were randomly distributed into 45 plastic tanks in a flow-through system at a density of 500 fish per tank. Fifteen fries were randomly selected from each holding tank and measurements on weight and length collected daily. Time series analysis and regression analysis were applied in the study. It was found that the length and weight of post larvae fed on mixed zooplankton was consistently lower than the other treatments. The length and weight of the fish fed on the three feed types were successfully modeled and forecasts made for future five periods while the relationship between length and weight was found to be significant on a linear regression model. This certainly adds value as the weight of post larvae catfish is measure with less difficulty and without causing injury or stress to the fish than measurement of length.

The Analysis of Statistical and Financial modeling based on Fourier Transform

In this manuscript, we mainly focus on the contribution of the Fourier transform in studies of economics and statistics and show how this mathematical technique helps analysts build various analytical models to understand complex data behavior. We focus on explaining how the application of the Fourier transform is used in time series analysis and regression analysis with examples and demonstrating why the Fourier transform contributes to these two analyses. First, modeling techniques without using Fourier transform omit information in time series analysis, especially when dealing with large data. Second, utilizing the Fourier Transform can sufficiently decrease the complexity of calculation and provide estimation, such as covariance estimation, in stochastic process and time series analysis.

Effects of Serum Antibody Test Reagent Discontinuation on Diagnosis of Amebiasis in Japan: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Amebiasis is a notifiable infectious disease in Japan, and the number of reported cases had been on the rise, but since the discontinuation of insurance-covered serum antibody testing reagent in 2017, concerns have arisen regarding the decrease in reported cases. This study aimed to investigate changes occurring after discontinuation of the serum antibody test reagent production. We retrospectively analyzed amebiasis cases from January 2014 to December 2019 using the National Center for Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases system. Interrupted time-series regression analysis was used to evaluate trends in weekly amebiasis cases before and after the discontinuation period. The study period was divided into prediscontinuation (2014-2017) and discontinuation (2018-2019) periods. A total of 6,179 amebiasis cases were reported. The average numbers of weekly cases were 21.5 during 2014-2017 and 16.3 during 2018-2019. The frequency of diagnoses decreased in the discontinuation period (prevalence rate ratio = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.89; P < 0.01). Subgroup analysis showed lower diagnostic rates, particularly for extraintestinal amebiasis (prevalence rate ratio = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.55; P < 0.01). We observed a significant decrease in the number of reported amebiasis cases per week after discontinuation of the serum antibody test reagent in Japan. Our findings hold significance for both public health policy and practice in Japan, underscoring the requirement for enhanced amebiasis diagnostic tools and strategies. To ensure accurate diagnosis, availability of antibody reagents for serum testing, covered by insurance, should be encouraged.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Assessment of Stacked LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, ConvLSTM2D, and Auto Encoders LSTM Time Series Regression Analysis at ADITYA-U Tokamak

Assessment of Stacked LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, ConvLSTM2D, and Auto Encoders LSTM Time Series Regression Analysis at ADITYA-U Tokamak

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF DIGITAL CHANNELS IN BUSINESS PROCESSES AND ACCESS TO FINANCE FOR MSMES IN AZERBAIJAN

Digitalization is assessed as a factor contributing to the sustainable growth of business entities. Implementation of digital solutions has been recognized as a key tool stimulating expansion and development of micro, small and medium enterprises into the economy. Micro small and medium enterprises represent a vast majority of firms in Azerbaijan. Limited access to financial resources is one of the key challenges exhibited by this size of enterprises. The rate of usage of online services by firms accelerated after COVID-19 pandemic. Despite significant progress during recent years, the adoption level of digital technologies particularly for financial services among population and entrepreneurs still needs to be developed. This article applies time series regression analysis and finds the existence of positive relationship between digitalization of business activities exemplified by e-commerce and the amount of credit funds allocated micro, small and medium business entities. The authors suggest about the existence of other factors that contribute to financial inclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Associations of meteorological factors and dynamics of scrub typhus incidence in South Korea: A nationwide time-series study

Scrub typhus, also known as Tsutsugamushi disease, is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. However, studies on the association between scrub typhus epidemics and meteorological factors in South Korea need to be complemented. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the association among ambient temperature, precipitation, and the incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. First, we obtained data on the weekly number of scrub typhus cases and concurrent meteorological variables at the city-county level (Si-Gun) in South Korea between 2001 and 2019. Subsequently, a two-stage meta-regression analysis was conducted. In the first stage, we conducted time-series regression analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the association between temperature, precipitation, and scrub typhus incidence at each location. In the second stage, we employed a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates from all municipalities, considering regional indicators, such as mite species distribution, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and urban-rural classification. Weekly mean temperature and weekly total precipitation exhibited a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association with the incidence of scrub typhus. The overall cumulative association with scrub typhus incidence peaked at 18.7 C° (with RRs of 9.73, 95% CI: 5.54–17.10) of ambient temperature (reference 9.7 C°) and 162.0 mm (with RRs of 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02–3.83) of precipitation (reference 2.8 mm), respectively. These findings suggest that meteorological factors contribute to scrub typhus epidemics by interacting with vectors, reservoir hosts, and human behaviors. This information serves as a reference for future public health policies and epidemiological research aimed at controlling scrub typhus infections.

The Effect of Ironman Taper on Mood and Engagement of Nonprofessional Triathletes: An Interrupted Time Series Study

An Ironman triathlon, which consists of swimming 2.4 miles, biking 112 miles, and running 26.2 miles, requires extensive training with planned recovery to prevent overtraining. Prior to a race, athletes commonly take a period of time for reduced training, known as a taper. Although much is known about the physical benefits of a taper, little is known about the psychological changes that occur in athletes during taper. This study assessed the mood and athletic engagement (AE) of triathletes during Ironman training, tapering, and post-race, with specific attention paid to these variables during taper. Nineteen participants, who were training for one of three selected late-season Ironman races, were recruited for the study. Data were analyzed for eight participants (five males and three females, Mage data for all time points: training, taper, and post-race. Mood subscales of the Brunel Mood Scale (Terry et al., 1999) and an overall mood scale, as well as the Athlete Engagement Questionnaire (Lonsdale et al., 2007), assessed weekly mood and engagement, respectively. Data were analyzed using time series regression analysis. Results showed no overall trends in change of mood and engagement across the three time points. However, there were significant changes in several variables on an individual level during the taper and post-race period. These individual changes demonstrate that psychological reaction to taper is a personal experience, and factors such as goal orientation, goal satisfaction, social support, competence, and coping strategies can impact the training, tapering, and post-race experience.