Time-series Cross-sectional Regression Model Research Articles

Ecologically unequal exchange, recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study

This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the “vertical flow” of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade.

The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment

This paper examines the issue of interprovincial migration and its potential relationship to capital expenditure. This paper estimates and reviews the relationship between several variables and their effects on interprovincial migration; one of its main contributions is to analyze the effect of capital expenditure on net interprovincial migration. This issue was examined from a Nova Scotia perspective through both literature and an empirical model. A time-series cross sectional regression model found both median income and GDP per capita to be significant and influential explanatory variables. Capital expenditure was found to be statistically significant, but negatively related and negligible. Based on these findings and the literature review, four recommendations are proposed: continue with the status quo, incentivize return migration, provide a tax break for out of province commuters, and establish a system to expedite accreditation.

Bank Regulation, Macroeconomic Management, and Monetary Incentives in OECD Economies

This paper argues that banks operating in systems where monetary and regulatory authority are unified in a central bank expect and receive preferential monetary policies, and so act less prudently than do banks in non-unified systems. These incentives arise when the natural tension between counter-cyclical monetary policy and pro-cyclical regulatory policy is resolved in ways that benefit the banking sector. I test the hypothesis using time series cross-sectional regression models that exploit two types of policy interventions—accession to the European monetary union, and several reassignments of domestic regulatory authority—within OECD countries from 1992 to 2009, the period during which the international Basel accords harmonized key aspects of national regulatory standards. The results strongly support the claim that there is a relationship between risk behaviors of banks and the location of regulatory and monetary authority.

Towards reasonably priced microcredit: analysing Egyptian NGO-MFIs' cost structure and financial performance

Interest rates have always been a much debated topic in microfinance, as the prices paid by low-income clients tend to be higher than conventional banks' rates. In Egypt, microcredit rates are increasingly being criticized and viewed as unreasonably high. The study analyses the effective interest rates charged by Egyptian NGO-MFIs compared with commercial banks' rates, and using time series cross-sectional regression models, the study examines the main determinants affecting NGO-MFIs’ portfolio yield and operating expenses in order to identify prospects for providing reasonably priced credit for low-income Egyptians. Findings suggest that, as the average portfolio yield for NGO-MFIs in Egypt has exceeded the global average portfolio yield, there is a clear potential for providing microcredit at lower prices, and much can still be done towards more operational efficiency.

Social disorganization, Latinos and juvenile crime in the Texas borderlands

PurposeUsing a time-series cross-sectional design, we estimated the effects of social disorganization on juvenile property crime rates in a predominately Latino, Texas-Mexico border region. MethodsEighteen years of data from seven independent sources (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, and Uniform Crime Reports) were examined. Counties were utilized as the unit of analysis, and time-series cross-sectional regression models were estimated. ResultsThe analysis showed that per capita income was negatively related to juvenile crime in both rural and urban counties. Ethnic heterogeneity was positively related to the outcome in rural, but not urban, counties; while percent foreign-born was negatively related to juvenile crime in urban, but not rural, counties. ConclusionsThe Latino experience, both native- and foreign-born, is important for improving our understanding how economic and social conditions relate to crime. Comparative analyses between distinct geographical environments, such as rural and urban counties, can yield insight how the local context interacts with social disorganization processes.

Exploring changes in dental workforce, dental care utilisation and dental caries levels in Europe, 1990-2004.

To provide a conceptual framework of the relationships between dental health and dental care utilisation with socio-economic factors, human resources and the finance and organisation of dental healthcare systems in European countries from 1990 to 2004. Bivariate relations and longitudinal analysis using time series cross-sectional regression models. Data were obtained from published papers and official publications. We found no evidence that greater access to dental healthcare professionals has contributed to improving dental health among 12-year-old children. The main parameters influencing oral health and its evolution are income and educational levels within countries. The greater number of dentists and a relatively young adult population have a positive effect on the utilisation of dental services. The improvement in dental health obtained among European children over the last 15 years does not seem to be attributable to policies aimed at improving access to oral health services. What has been achieved is a higher rate of utilisation by adults, due in part to the greater relative numbers of dental healthcare personnel in European countries between 1990 and 2004.

Comparison of TSCS regression and neural network models for panel data forecasting: debt policy

Empirical studies of variations in debt ratios across firms have analyzed important determinants of capital structure using statistical models. Researchers, however, rarely employ nonlinear models to examine the determinants and make little effort to identify a superior prediction model among competing ones. This paper reviews the time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) regression and the predictive abilities of neural network (NN) utilizing panel data concerning debt ratio of high-tech industries in Taiwan. We built models with these two methods using the same set of measurements as determinants of debt ratio and compared the forecasting performance of five models, namely, three TSCS regression models and two NN models. Models built with neural network obtained the lowest mean square error and mean absolute error. These results reveal that the relationships between debt ratio and determinants are nonlinear and that NNs are more competent in modeling and forecasting the test panel data. We conclude that NN models can be used to solve panel data analysis and forecasting problems.