Time-dependent Survival Analysis Research Articles

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing predicts risk of progressive heart failure and long term mortality in ambulatory patients awaiting isolated heart transplant

Abstract Introduction Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) parameters such as peak VO2 ≤ 14ml/kg/min, percentage predicted peak VO2 (ppVO2) ≤ 50% and ventilation equivalent of carbon dioxide (Ve/VCO2) >35 l/min/l/min are recommended thresholds to list for isolated heart transplant. There is minimal data on clinical events after listing to guide clinical management or priority in organ allocation. Purpose To assess the effect of peak VO2, ppVO2, Ve/VCO2 on clinical events after listing for isolated heart transplant. Methods In a single centre retrospective study, we identified patients who were status 6 or status 2 prior to 2018 at time of listing for isolated heart transplant between 2007 and 2021. Clinical data were collected by chart review. Primary outcome of progressive heart failure was defined as death or upgrade in transplant priority status (new inotropes or mechanical circulatory support). Comparison was made between peak VO2 strata (> 14 vs ≤ 14 ml/kg/min), ppVO2 strata (> 50% vs 40-50% vs <40%) and Ve/VCO2 strata (<35 vs >35 l/min/l/min). Secondary outcome was time dependent survival after listing for heart transplant. Results We identified 141 patients of which 133 underwent CPET and follow up was available for 130 who were included in the analysis. Median age was 53 years (interquartile range 41-59 years), 29.1% of patients were female. Median peak VO2 was 14.0 ml/kg/min (11.2-15.7), ppVO2 was 44% (36-52), Ve/VCO2 slope was 34.0 (31.0-37.0) and RER was 1.1 (1.1-1.2). 87 patients had progressive heart failure consisting of 34 deaths and 83 patients having upgrade in priority status. There was a significant difference in risk of progressive heart failure comparing peak VO2 strata (Figure 1) (freedom from event at one year 71.4% with peak VO2 > 14 vs 46.5% with peak VO2 ≤ 14, p=0.00061) and ppVO2 strata (Figure 2) (freedom from event at one year 75.0% with ppVO2 >50% vs 61.2% with ppVO2 40-50% vs 42.6% with ppVO2 <40%, p=0.0015). There was no significant difference with Ve/VCO2 strata (freedom from event at one year 59.8% with Ve/VCO2 <34 vs 54.9% with Ve/VCO2 >34, p=0.52). There were 34 deaths before transplant and 23 deaths after transplant. 87 patients underwent transplant. In a time dependent survival analysis, age, gender and ppVO2<50% (HR 1.65 (0.87-3.12)) were not significant predictors of mortality. Both early transplant (defined as < 1 year after listing, HR 0.14 (0.06-0.34) and late transplant (defined as > 1 year after listing, HR 0.16 (0.08-0.32)) were significant predictors of lower mortality whilst Ve/VCO2>35 (HR 2.09 (1.19-3.68)) was a significant predictor of higher mortality. Conclusions Peak VO2 and ppVO2 stratify risk of progressive heart failure in ambulatory patients awaiting isolated heart transplant. However, Ve/VCO2 is a predictor of significantly higher mortality. These findings should affect clinical management and transplant priority status; and influence revision of future guidelines.Freedom from event by peak VO2 strataFreedom from event by ppVO2 strata

Biliary complications after adult-to-adult living-donor liver transplantation: An international multicenter study of 3633 cases

In living-donor liver transplantation, biliary complications including bile leaks and biliary anastomotic strictures remain significant challenges, with incidences varying across different centers. This multicentric retrospective study (2016-2020) included 3633 adult patients from 18 centers and aimed to identify risk factors for these biliary complications and their impact on patient survival. Incidences of bile leaks and biliary strictures were 11.4% and 20.6%, respectively. Key risk factors for bile leaks included multiple bile duct anastomoses (odds ratio, [OR] 1.8), Roux-en-Y hepaticojejunostomy (OR, 1.4), and a history of major abdominal surgery (OR, 1.4). For biliary anastomotic strictures, risk factors were ABO incompatibility (OR, 1.4), blood loss >1 L (OR, 1.4), and previous abdominal surgery (OR, 1.7). Patients experiencing biliary complications had extended hospital stays, increased incidence of major complications, and higher comprehensive complication index scores. The impact on graft survival became evident after accounting for immortal time bias using time-dependent covariate survival analysis. Bile leaks and biliary anastomotic strictures were associated with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.7 and 1.8 for graft survival, respectively. The study underscores the importance of minimizing these risks through careful donor selection and preoperative planning, as biliary complications significantly affect graft survival, despite the availability of effective treatments.

Risk of readmission and death after hospitalization for worsening heart failure: Role of post-discharge follow-up visits in a real-world study from the Grand Est Region of France.

Patients who experience hospitalizations due to heart failure (HF) face a significant risk of readmission and mortality. Our objective was to evaluate whether the risk of hospitalization and mortality following discharge from HF hospitalization differed based on adherence to the outpatient follow-up (FU) protocol comprising an appointment with a general practitioner (GP) within 15 days, a cardiologist within 2 months or both (termed combined FU). We studied all adults admitted for a first HF hospitalization from 2016 to 2020 in France's Grand Est region. Association between adherence to outpatient FU and outcomes were assessed with time-dependent survival analysis model. Among 67 476 admitted patients (mean age 80.3 ± 11.3 years, 53% women), 62 156 patients (92.2%) were discharged alive and followed for 723 (317-1276) days. Combined FU within 2 months was used in 21.1% of patients, with lower rates among >85 years, women, and those with higher comorbidity levels (p < 0.0001 for all). Combined FU was associated with a lower 1-year death or rehospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.94, p < 0.0001) mostly related to lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68, p < 0.0001) whereas HF readmission was higher (adjusted HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.15-1.24, p < 0.0001). When analysing components of combined FU separately, 1-year mortality was more related to cardiologist FU (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.67, p < 0.0001), than GP FU (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90, p < 0.0001). Combined FU is carried out in a minority of patients following HF hospitalization, yet it is linked to a substantial reduction in 1-year mortality, albeit at the expense of an increase in HF hospitalizations.

CD73/adenosine pathway-related gene signature for intratumor heterogeneity and immune infiltration in prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma.

e20524 Background: Adenosine is an immunosuppressive molecule that can inhibit the activity of immune cells, particularly T cells, and promote tumor growth. CD73, also known as ecto-5'-nucleotidase, is a cell-surface enzyme that plays a role in the adenosine pathway can catalyzes the conversion of AMP to adenosine. Establish and evaluate a prognosis model based on CD73/ Adenosine pathway will help to understanding of the biological mechanisms in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and providing more accurate predictions for patients' treatment. Methods: The RNA sequencing (RNA-seq), whole exome sequencing (WES) and clinical data were obtained from LUAD cohorts of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). CD73/ Adenosine pathway-related genes were identified by screening for genes that were in both the CD73 STRING network (confidence = 0.9, 1st shell ≤50 interactors) and the KEGG purine metabolism pathway gene list(map00230). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was conducted to develop a CD73/ Adenosine pathway-related risk score (CD73RS). Time-dependent ROC curve and survival analysis were conducted in LUAD-TCGA cohort to verify the predictive performance of CD73RS. The MATH (Mutant-Allele Tumor Heterogeneity) ITH scores were calculated to evaluate intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) in LUAD-TCGA WES "maf" files using the R package "maftools" and the "math.score" function. TIMER 2.0 database(http://timer.cistrome.org/) was conducted to estimation of tumor microenvironment to further understand the molecular features of CD73RS. An independent cohort (GSE72094) was used to verify the prognostic effect of CD73RS. Results: A prognosis prediction model based on 21 CD73/ Adenosine pathway-related genes was established using LASSO regression. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of the risk model from LUAD-TCGA cohort showed that the high-risk group had a significantly worse prognosis (HR = 3.298, P = 1.26e-08). The area under the curve (AUC) in time-dependent ROC curve at 1, 3 and 5 years were turn out to be 0.794, 0.722 and 0.686, respectively. The validation set also showed worse prognosis in high-risk group(HR = 1.473,p = 0.0403). In the high-risk group, there was a higher ITH score compared to the low-risk group (p = 0.0094), along with lower infiltration levels of B cells(p = 7.23e-15), CD4+ T cells(p = 0.003), macrophage cells(p = 0.016), and myeloid dendritic cells(p = 0.037). Conclusions: We established and validated a CD73/ Adenosine pathway risk model that exhibits a robust predictive performance for the outcome of patients with LUAD. The CD73/Adenosine pathway has been shown to play a role in both self-driven genomic changes, such as intra-tumor heterogeneity (ITH), as well as non-autonomous processes, such as immune microenvironment adaptation, which contribute to tumor plasticity and development.

Fatty acids metabolism affects the therapeutic effect of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 in tumor immune microenvironment in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

BackgroundClear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is a highly invasive and metastatic subtype of kidney malignancy and is correlated with metabolic reprogramming for adaptation to the tumor microenvironment comprising infiltrated immune cells and immunomodulatory molecules. The role of immune cells in the tumor microenvironment (TME) and their association with abnormal fatty acids metabolism in ccRCC remains poorly understood.MethodRNA-seq and clinical data of KIRC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and E-MTAB-1980 from the ArrayExpress dataset. The Nivolumab group and Everolimus group of the CheckMate 025 study, the Atezolizumab arm of IMmotion150 and the Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab group of IMmotion151 cohort were obtained for subsequent analysis. After differential expression genes identification, the signature was constructed through univariate Cox proportional hazard regression and simultaneously the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) analysis and the predictive performance of our signature was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Kaplan–Meier (KM) survival analysis, nomogram, drug sensitivity analysis, immunotherapeutic effect analysis and enrichment analysis. Immunohistochemistry (IHC), qPCR and western blot were performed to measure related mRNA or protein expression. Biological features were evaluated by wound healing, cell migration and invasion assays and colony formation test and analyzed using coculture assay and flow cytometry.ResultsTwenty fatty acids metabolism-related mRNA signatures were constructed in TCGA and possessed a strong predictive performance demonstrated through time-dependent ROC and KM survival analysis. Notably, the high-risk group exhibited an impaired response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 (Programmed death-1 receptor/Programmed death-1 receptor-ligand) therapy compared to the low-risk group. The overall levels of the immune score were higher in the high-risk group. Additionally, drug sensitivity analysis observed that the model could effectively predict efficacy and sensitivity to chemotherapy. Enrichment analysis revealed that the IL6-JAK-STAT3 signaling pathway was a major pathway. IL4I1 could promote ccRCC cells’ malignant features through JAK1/STAT3 signaling pathway and M2-like macrophage polarization.ConclusionThe study elucidates that targeting fatty acids metabolism can affect the therapeutic effect of PD-1/PD-L1 in TME and related signal pathways. The model can effectively predict the response to several treatment options, underscoring its potential clinical utility.

Combined transarterial chemoembolization and external beam radiotherapy for identifying surgical candidates for hepatocellular carcinoma with macroscopic vascular invasion: A propensity score-weighted analysis.

562 Background: To evaluate the role of hepatic resection in patients with objective responses after combined transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and radiotherapy (RT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with macroscopic vascular invasion (MVI). Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the patients treated with combined TACE and RT as a first-line treatment for HCC with MVI between 2010 and 2015. Some patients with objective responses underwent hepatic resection or liver transplantation. Surgical resectability was determined by the hepatobiliary and transplant surgeons of the multidisciplinary team for liver cancer. To investigate the role of surgery, patients with objective responses who did not undergo surgery were selected as a control group. The survival outcomes between the patients who received surgery and those who did not were compared using a propensity score-based stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting method to minimize selection bias. Time-dependent survival analysis by surgery was performed. Results: Of the 170 patients with objective responses after combined TACE and RT, surgery was performed for 41 patients, including 8 liver transplantations. The unweighted surgery group was younger and had a higher proportion of solitary tumor and unilateral vascular involvement. After adjustment, the overall survival rates at 3 years were 61.0% and 28.6% in surgery and non-surgery groups, respectively. The most important prognostic factor for overall survival was surgery (adjusted Cox hazard ratio [HR], 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17–0.46; p-value &lt; 0.001). Complete response after TACE and RT was also a significant prognostic indicator for overall survival (adjusted HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.27–0.61; p-value &lt; 0.001). There was no surgical mortality. Four patients (9.8%) required additional surgery for postoperative bleeding or graft failure. Conclusions: Hepatic resection was significantly associated with improved overall survival in patients with objective responses after combined TACE and RT for HCC with MVI.

Incidence and prognosis associated with troponin elevation after cardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study

ObjectiveCardiac troponin is used as a prognostic biomarker after cardiac surgery. However, numerous confounding elements, such as inflammation, liver and renal function biomarkers, have been associated with troponin variations. Furthermore,...

Exploring the Reciprocal Relationship Between Serious Victimization and Criminogenic Networks

Reducing explanations of victimization to a person’s risky lifestyle has stalled growth in theories of victimization. Drawing from Carlo Morselli’s contributions to social network analysis, the current study extended past research on community-based co-offending networks and victimization in two ways. First, the current study more comprehensively measured a person’s criminogenic network by also examining the contribution of conflict ties and social ties to victimization. Second, we investigated whether serious victimization was prospectively associated with social network characteristics. Data were used on 99 participants from the Incarcerated Serious Violent Young Offender Study who had criminogenic connections within the city of Surrey, BC. Time-dependent covariate survival analysis was used to model the relationship between network characteristics and time to victimization. Time-series ordinary least squares regression was used to examine whether serious victimization predicted network characteristics. Participants with a greater number of co-offending ties experienced serious victimization significantly later. As evidence of the reciprocal nature of the victimization–network relationship, victimization predicted a greater number of future criminogenic connections in the co-offending tie, social tie, and prison tie networks. Findings have implications for network-based intervention models.

Incident cardiovascular events among healthy subjects are associated with increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis

Abstract Introduction While Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share common risk factors, data on the temporal association between the occurrence of CVD and cancer is limited. Purpose This study investigated the association between incident CVD events future cancer among apparently healthy subjects. Methods We evaluated asymptomatic self-referred adults who participated in a screening program. All subjects were free of CVD and cancer at baseline. CVD was defined as the composite of acute coronary syndrome, percutaneous coronary intervention, or stroke. Study endpoint was the development of cancer during follow up. Cancer and mortality data were available for all subjects from national registries. Cox regression models were applied with CVD as a time-dependent covariate and death as a competing risk event. Results Final study population included 26,574 subjects. Median age was 46 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 40–53) and 69% were men. During median follow up time of 10 years (IQR 3–16) 2,463 (9%) subjects developed CVD, 2,040 (8%) developed cancer and 869 (3%) died. Most common cancer types were prostate among men (N=406, 2.2%) and breast among women (N=283, 3.4%). Compared with patients who were free of CVD and cancer during follow up, risk of death was 5, 34 and 54 times higher for patients who developed CVD event, cancer, or both during follow up, respectively (p &amp;lt;.001 for all). Time dependent survival analysis showed that subjects who developed CVD during follow up were 50% more likely to develop cancer in a univariate model (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3–1.7, p&amp;lt;.001). Interaction analysis demonstrated that the association of incident CVD with the risk of future cancer diagnosis was age dependent such that in younger subjects (≤52 years; N=19,052) incident CVD was associated with a significant 30% increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis (95% CI 1.03–1.67, p=.027) while in older subjects incident CVD was not associated with increased risk of cancer in the multivariable model (p for interaction =.018). Conclusion Incident CVD is independently associated with increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis among young adults. Active cancer surveillance should be considered among young patients recovering from a CVD event. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Incident cardiovascular events among middle-age men are associated with increased risk of subsequent prostate cancer diagnosis

Abstract Introduction Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy in men worldwide, but incidence is highly dependent on screening. Purpose We aimed to examine whether incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are associated with increased risk of future prostate cancer in middle-aged men. Methods We evaluated asymptomatic self-referred men who participated in a screening program. All subjects were free of CVD and cancer at baseline. CVD was defined as the composite of acute coronary syndrome, percutaneous coronary intervention, or stroke. Study endpoint was the development of cancer during follow up. Cancer and mortality data were available for all subjects from national registries. Cox regression models were applied with CVD as a time-dependent covariate and death as a competing risk event. Results Final study population included 18,282 subjects. Median age was 47 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 41–54). During median follow up time of 12 years (IQR 4–17) 2,047 (11%) subjects developed CVD, 406 (2.2%) developed prostate cancer and 694 (4%) died. Compared with patients who were free of CVD or prostate cancer during follow up, risk of death was 4, 6 and 15 times higher for patients who developed CVD event, prostate cancer, or both during follow up, respectively (p &amp;lt;.001 for all). Time dependent survival analysis showed that subjects who developed CVD during follow up were 60% more likely to develop prostate cancer (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.2–2.1, p=.001). However, after multivariable adjustment, this association was no longer significant. Interaction analysis demonstrated that the association of incident CVD with the risk of future cancer diagnosis was age dependent such that in middle-aged men (age≤55 years; N=14,473) incident CVD was associated with a significant 70% increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis in multivariable model (95% CI 1.13–2.6, p=.011, p for interaction=.002). Exploratory analysis of men younger than 55 showed that independent association of incident CVD with subsequent cancer diagnosis was different among subjects with normal body mass index (BMI) (≤25 kg/m2) compared with those with increased BMI (HR 0.55; 95% CI [0.22–1.42]; p value=0.23 vs. 1.6; 95% CI [1.007–2.54]; p value=.047; p for interaction=.058, respectively). Conclusion Incident CVD is independently associated with increased risk of subsequent prostate cancer diagnosis among men ≤55 years. Routine prostate cancer surveillance should be considered after CVD event in this population. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Late-onset and long-lasting immune-related adverse events from immune checkpoint-inhibitors: An overlooked aspect in immunotherapy

BackgroundImmune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionised cancer therapy but frequently cause immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Description of late-onset and duration of irAEs in the literature is often incomplete. MethodsTo investigate reporting and incidence of late-onset and long-lasting irAEs, we reviewed all registration trials leading to ICI’s approval by the US FDA and/or EMA up to December 2019. We analysed real-world data from all lung cancer (LC) and melanoma (Mel) patients treated with approved ICIs at the University Hospital of Lausanne (CHUV) from 2011 to 2019. To account for the immortal time bias, we used a time-dependent analysis to assess the potential association between irAEs and overall survival (OS). ResultsDuration of irAEs and proportion of patients with ongoing toxicities at data cut-off were not specified in 56/62 (90%) publications of ICIs registration trials. In our real-world analysis, including 437 patients (217 LC, 220 Mel), 229 (52.4%) experienced at least one grade ≥2 toxicity, for a total of 318 reported irAEs, of which 112 (35.2%) were long-lasting (≥6 months) and about 40% were ongoing at a median follow-up of 369 days [194–695] or patient death. The cumulative probability of irAE onset from treatment initiation was 42.8%, 51.0% and 57.3% at 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively. The rate of ongoing toxicity from the time of first toxicity onset was 42.8%, 38.4% and 35.7% at 6, 12 and 24 months. Time-dependent analysis showed no significant association between the incidence of irAEs and OS in both cohorts (log Rank p = 0.67 and 0.19 for LC and Mel, respectively). ConclusionsLate-onset and long-lasting irAEs are underreported but common events during ICIs therapy. Time-dependent survival analysis is advocated to assess their impact on OS. Real-world evidence is warranted to fully capture and characterise late-onset and long-lasting irAEs in order to implement appropriate strategies for patient surveillance and follow-up.

The association between continuity of care and surgery in lumbar disc herniation patients

Continuity of care is a core dimension of high-quality care in the management of disease. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between continuity of care and lumbar surgery in patients with moderate disc herniation. The Korean National Sample Cohort was used. The target population consisted of patients who have had disc herniation more than 6 months and didn’t get surgery and red flag signs within 6 months from onset. The population was enrolled from 2004 to 2013. The Bice-Boxerman Continuity of Care was used in measuring continuity of care. The marginal structural model with time dependent survival analysis was used. In total, 29,061 patients were enrolled in the cohort. High level of continuity of care was associated with a lower risk of lumbar surgery (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.20–0.27). When the index was calculated only with outpatient visits to primary care with related specialty, the HR was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.43–0.57). In exploratory analysis, patients with lumbar stenosis and spondylolisthesis had higher risk of having a low level of continuity of care. These results indicate that continuity of care is associated with lower rates of lumbar surgery in patients with moderate disc herniation.

Incidence of Skin and Respiratory Immune-Related Adverse Events Correlates With Specific Tumor Types in Patients Treated With Checkpoint Inhibitors

Checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) increase antitumor activity by unblocking regulators of the immune response. This action can provoke a wide range of immunologic and inflammatory side effects, some of which can be fatal. Recent studies suggest that CPI-induced immune-related adverse events (irAEs) may predict survival and response. However, little is known about the mechanisms of this association. This study was undertaken to evaluate the influence of tumor diagnosis and preexisting clinical factors on the types of irAEs experienced by cancer patients treated with CPIs. The correlation between irAEs and overall survival (OS) was also assessed. All cancer patients treated with atezolizumab (ATEZO), ipilimumab (IPI), nivolumab (NIVO), or pembrolizumab (PEMBRO) at Virginia Mason Medical Center between 2011 and 2019 were evaluated. irAEs were graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (Version 5) and verified independently. Statistical analyses were performed to assess associations between irAEs, pre-treatment factors, and OS. Of the 288 patients evaluated, 59% developed irAEs of any grade, and 19% developed irAEs of grade 3 or 4. A time-dependent survival analysis demonstrated a clear association between the occurrence of irAEs and OS (P < 0.001). A 6-week landmark analysis adjusted for body mass index confirmed an association between irAEs and OS in non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (P < 0.03). An association between melanoma and skin irAEs (P < 0.01) and between NSCLC and respiratory irAEs (P = 0.03) was observed, independent of CPI administered. Patients with preexisting autoimmune disease experienced a higher incidence of severe irAEs (P = 0.01), but not a higher overall incidence of irAEs (P = 0.6). A significant association between irAEs and OS was observed in this diverse patient population. No correlation was observed between preexisting comorbid conditions and the type of irAE observed. However, a correlation between skin-related irAEs and melanoma and between respiratory irAEs and NSCLC was observed, suggesting that many irAEs are driven by a specific response to the primary tumor. In patients with NSCLC, the respiratory irAEs were associated with a survival benefit.

Incident cardiovascular events and risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share common risk factors. This study investigated the association of CVD diagnosis and the risk of future cancer. Methods We evaluated asymptomatic self-referred adults aged 40–79 years who participated in a screening program. All subjects were free of CVD and cancer at baseline. CVD was defined as the composite of acute coronary syndrome, percutaneous coronary intervention or stroke. Cancer and mortality data were available for all subjects from national registries. Primary end-point was development of cancer during follow up. Cox regression models were applied with CVD as a time-dependent covariate and death as a competing risk event. Results Final study population included 15,486 subjects. Median age was 50 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 44–55) and 72% were men. During median follow up time of 11 years (IQR 6–15) 1,028 (7%) subjects developed CVD, 1,281 (8%) developed cancer and 499 (3%) died. Most common cancer types were prostate among men (N=277, 1.8%) and breast among women (N=187, 1.2%). Time dependent survival analysis showed that subjects who developed CVD during follow up were 60% more likely to develop cancer (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3–1.95, p&amp;lt;0.001). However, after adjustment for known predictors of cancer, the association of incident CVD with cancer diagnosis was no longer significant (p=0.21). Interaction analysis demonstrated that the association of incident CVD with the risk of future cancer diagnosis was age dependent such that in younger subjects (&amp;lt;50 years; N=7,649) incident CVD was associated with a significant 2 fold increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis (95% CI 1.2–3.6, p=0.014) while in older subjects incident CVD was not associated with increased risk of cancer in the multivariable model (p for interaction =0.035; Figure 1). Conclusions Incident CVD is independently associated with 2-fold increased risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis among young adults. Our analysis underscores the importance of cancer surveillance among young patients following a CVD event. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin in the UK in an EMPA-REG OUTCOME subgroup with type 2 diabetes and heart failure.

AimsHeart failure (HF) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), common co‐morbidities, translate into worse patient prognoses and higher direct costs than for either condition alone. Empagliflozin has been shown to markedly reduce cardiovascular (CV) deaths and HF hospitalizations (HHF) in HF patients with T2D. This study evaluated the lifetime cost‐effectiveness of supplementing standard of care (SoC) with empagliflozin, relative to SoC alone, in HF patients with T2D from the UK payer perspective.Methods and resultsAn existing discrete‐event simulation model was adapted for the economic evaluation. Risk equations developed from time‐dependent parametric survival analyses using patient‐level HF subpopulation data from the EMPA‐REG OUTCOME trial were employed to predict CV and renal events. Non‐CV death, utility weights, and costs were drawn from UK sources. Quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Relative to SoC, empagliflozin with SoC yielded fewer first HHF, recurrent HHF, CV death, and non‐fatal myocardial infarction but more non‐fatal stroke events. Empagliflozin with SoC vs. SoC alone was associated with increased average life expectancy (10.80 vs. 9.59 LYs) and quality of life (6.27 vs. 5.62 QALYs), though at higher lifetime cost (£18 197 vs. £16 829) per person, resulting in an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of £2093 per QALY. The probability of empagliflozin being cost‐effective in the HF subpopulation at a £20 000 per QALY willingness‐to‐pay threshold was 91%.ConclusionsThis analysis suggests that adding empagliflozin to SoC in HF patients with T2D constitutes a cost‐effective use of UK healthcare resources and may provide long‐term health benefits to patients.

Waldenström Macroglobulinemia in Young Patients Treated in the Modern Era: A Multi-Institutional Italian Study

Background. Waldenström Macroglobulinemia (WM) is a rare indolent lymphoma typical of the elderly population, with a median age at diagnosis of 65-70 years and median overall survival of approximately 10 years. Age is the most important prognostic factor in WM, and unrelated mortality significantly impacts survival in elderly patients. The past two decades have witnessed important treatment advances in WM, with the introduction of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies in the early 2000s and of ibrutinib in more recent years. Less than 10% of WM patients are diagnosed at young age, and few studies have addressed their characteristics and outcome in the era of immunotherapy and targeted therapies. Here we report the presenting features, treatment and outcome of WM patients younger than 55 years diagnosed in 12 Hematologic Centers across Italy between 2000 and 2018. Patients and Methods. Diagnostic criteria were those established during the second International Workshop on WM (Owen et al, 2003) and were retrospectively applied to patients diagnosed before 2003. The overall survival (OS) observed in the study cohort was compared with the expected survival of the general Italian population matched by sex, age and calendar year. The expected survival estimates were derived from Italian life tables (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, ISTAT). Results. The median age of patients included in the study was 50 years (interquartile range, IQR: 46-52). Their clinical characteristics at diagnosis are reported in Table 1. With a median follow-up of 5.6 years (IQR 3.1-9.1), 76 of 129 patients (59%) have been treated, at diagnosis (n=31, 41%) or after initial observation (n=45, 59%). The median treatment-free survival was 39 months. According to ISS-WM prognostic score, 58% were classified as low risk, 30% as intermediate risk and 12% as high risk. Frontline therapy included Rituximab in 71/76 patients (93%). Rituximab was associated with chemotherapy in 62 patients (82%), whereas 9 patients (12%) received a chemo-free induction. Five patients (7%) received chemotherapy only as first-line therapy (Table 2). The overall response rate (ORR) to induction therapy was 85%, including 39% CR+VGPR. Two patients received Rituximab maintenance for 2 years. The median progression-free survival (PFS) after first-line therapy was 76 months. Four of 76 patients (5%) received an autologous stem cell transplantation at relapse/progression. Overall, 14/76 patients (18%) received ibrutinib as first (n=2) or as subsequent line of therapy (n=12). During follow-up, 4/76 patients (5%) developed a solid cancer (bladder n=2, breast n=1, prostate n=1) and 2 a second hematologic cancer (chronic myelomonocytic leukemia n=1, secondary MDS n=1). Using a competing-risk model, accounting for death from any cause as the competing event, the cumulative incidence of second cancers was 2% at 5 years and 5.8% at 10 years. Three patients have died, 2 due to WM and 1 due to acute myeloid leukemia. The 5-and 10-year OS from diagnosis were 99% and 96% respectively. In a time-dependent survival analysis, considering therapy as a time-dependent covariate, the OS of treated and untreated WM patients was not significantly different (P = 0.162) (Figure 1). Among treated patients, the OS was significantly shorter in high-risk patients as compared with low- and intermediate-risk patients (5-year OS 85.7% versus 100%, P=0.018) (Figure 2). The OS of young WM patients was not significantly reduced as compared with age-, sex- and calendar year- matched general population (P &amp;gt; 0.05) (Figure 3). Conclusions. The presenting features of young WM patients resemble those typically described in the elderly WM population. Among treated patients, more than half are low-risk according to ISS-WM, confirming age as the most important prognostic factor. More than 90% of patients received Rituximab as part of the upfront treatment, mainly in combination with chemotherapy. Ibrutinib seems to be preferred over autologous stem cell transplantation in the relapsed/refractory setting. The outcome of young WM patients treated in Italy in the contemporary era was excellent in terms of both PFS and OS, with a life expectancy not significantly reduced as compared with the general population. Figure 1 Disclosures Varettoni: Gilead: Other: travel expenses; Janssen: Consultancy; Roche: Consultancy; ABBVIE: Other: travel expenses. Tedeschi:AstraZeneca: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen spa: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; BeiGene: Honoraria; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; SUNESIS: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; AbbVie: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Gilead: Consultancy. Benevolo:Novartis Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy. Del Fabro:Janssen: Consultancy. Luminari:ROCHE: Other: Role as Advisor ; CELGENE: Other: Role as Advisor &amp; Travel Grant; TAKEDA: Other: Travel Grant; GILEAD: Other: Lecturer . Arcaini:Gilead Sciences: Research Funding; Celgene: Speakers Bureau; Celgene, Roche, Janssen-Cilag, Gilead: Other: Travel expenses; Bayer, Celgene, Gilead Sciences, Roche, Sandoz, Janssen-Cilag, VERASTEM: Consultancy.

Survival benefit of multidisciplinary care in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Spain: association with noninvasive mechanical ventilation.

PurposeMultidisciplinary care has become the preferred model of care for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). It is assumed that the sum of interventions associated with this approach has a positive effect on survival. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of a multidisciplinary care approach on the survival of patients with ALS.Patients and methodsWe performed a retrospective review of prospectively collected data in a tertiary referral center in Spain. Participants were patients with definite or probable ALS managed in a multidisciplinary care program. We compared demographic and survival data of patients with definite or probable ALS treated in a referral center without and with implementation of a multidisciplinary care program. We performed time-dependent multivariate survival analysis of the use of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) and gastrostomy.ResultsWe evaluated 398 consecutive patients, of whom 54 were treated by a general neurologist and 344 were treated in the multidisciplinary care clinic. Patients receiving multidisciplinary care were older (62 vs 58 years), tended to have bulbar onset disease (30% vs 17.7%), and were more likely to receive riluzole (88.7% vs 29.6%, p<0.01), NIMV (48.8% vs 29.6%, p>0.001), and nutrition via gastrostomy (32.3% vs 3.7%, p<0.01). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a 6-month increase in survival (log-rank, 16.03, p<0.001). Application of the Andersen-Gill model showed that the variables associated with reduced mortality were reduced time to NIMV and gastrostomy and the duration of both, thus reflecting compliance.ConclusionsMultidisciplinary care increased the survival of ALS patients in our study population. Timely use of respiratory support and gastrostomy are fundamental aspects of this benefit.

Fusaproliferin, a Fungal Mycotoxin, Shows Cytotoxicity against Pancreatic Cancer Cell Lines.

As a part of our ongoing research on endophytic fungi, we have isolated a sesterterpene mycotoxin, fusaproliferin (FUS), from a Fusarium solani strain, which is associated with the plant Aglaonema hookerianum Schott. FUS showed rapid and sub-micromolar IC50 against pancreatic cancer cell lines. Time-dependent survival analysis and microscopy imaging showed rapid morphological changes in cancer cell lines 4 h after incubation with FUS. This provides a new chemical scaffold that can be further developed to obtain more potent synthetic agents against pancreatic cancer.

PDB45 - Cost-Effectiveness of Empagliflozin in Chinese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Established Cardiovascular Disease: A Discrete Event Simulation Economic Modelling Study

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin when added to standard of care (SoC) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established cardiovascular (CV) disease in China. A validated discrete event simulation model, based on time-dependent parametric survival analyses of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial data, was used to project individual clinical and economic outcomes of patients receiving empagliflozin plus SoC compared with SoC alone. The model was adapted to the Chinese setting with local cost data from a healthcare system perspective. The background mortalities of the model cohort were adjusted with China-specific parameters. Model extrapolated outcomes included numbers and rates of diabetes-related events, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The main analysis simulated 5,000 patients over a lifetime horizon. An annual discount rate of 3.5% was applied to both future costs and QALYs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the model results. Compared with SoC alone, empagliflozin plus SoC was predicted to result in longer mean survivals (14.75 LYs vs 12.36 LYs) and reduced rates of clinical events, including CV death (4.11 vs. 5.78, per 100-patient years), heart failure (2.08 vs. 3.11), nonfatal myocardial infarction (1.94 vs 2.20), renal injury (1.02 vs. 1.56) and renal failure (0.33 vs. 0.56). This resulted in a predicted additional 1.01 QALYs with empagliflozin (8.05 QALYs vs. 7.04 QALYs with SoC) at an incremental cost of ¥58,166 per patient. The generated ICER was ¥57,971 per QALY gained, which was considered highly cost-effective in China given a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥161,940 per QALY gained (three times GDP per capita). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that the results are robust. Empagliflozin added to SoC is a highly cost-effective treatment strategy for patients with T2D and established CV disease in China.

Acute kidney injury and risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism in Taiwan: A nationwide retrospective cohort study

IntroductionChronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). However, few studies have investigated the relationship between acute kidney injury (AKI) and risk of DVT and PE. Therefore, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal cohort study to determine whether patients with AKI are associated with increased risk of developing DVT and PE. MethodsWe included >30years-old inpatients (n=4734) receiving the diagnosis of AKI from 2000 to 2006 and their age-and sex-matched non-AKI inpatients using medical service in the same year (n=47.340). Diagnosis of DVT and PE was recorded within 5-year after the AKI event or index use of medical service. The hazard ratios were analyzed using Cox regression model and adjustments were made for demographic factors, selected comorbidities and treatments. A time-dependent covariate survival analysis was performed for variations of some comorbidities, treatments and hospitalization. Competing risk regression (CRR) model was also used to adjust the risk for death. Propensity score matching was used to minimize potential selection bias. We also performed sensitivity analysis to examine the effect of other possible residual confounding factors. ResultsAfter adjusting for demographic characteristics, selected comorbidities and treatment, AKI remained a predisposing factor with a 1.44-fold (95% CI, 1.04–2.01) and 1.49-fold (95% CI, 1.12–1.97) increase in patients who were at a risk for developing DVT within 3 and 5years. AKI also remained a significant predisposing factor with a 2.66-fold (95% CI, 1.49–3.20) increase in patients who were at a risk for developing PE within 3years. However, there were no significant results for PE within 5years. The hazard ratios of time-dependent covariate survival analysis and CRR model showed the similar results. ConclusionsRisk of DVT and PE is higher in patients with AKI than in the general population.