Time-dependent Cox Regression Research Articles

Early relevant alerts from remote monitoring in heart failure patients with a cardiac implanted electronic device: what implications for long term outcome?

Abstract Background Alarms generated by remote monitoring (RM) of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) have been associated with worse clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). However, whether the timing of RM alerts impact on the clinical trajectories of HF patients is still debated. Purpose To examine the impact of alerts occurring in the first 180 days after CIED implant on clinical outcomes, as well as potential predictors. Methods we retrospectively enrolled all patients with a history of HF implanted with a CRT-D or an ICD at our tertiary. We collected data regarding ATP, shock and HF score above threshold (defined as multiparametric scores provided and validated by all CIED manufacturers). We defined early relevant alerts (Early-RA) as alarms received during the first 180 days after implant. The primary clinical outcome of the study was a composite of death or HF hospitalization. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to determine associations. The occurrence of early-RA was used as a time dependent covariate. Results A total of 272 patients were included in the analysis (median age 67.4 years, IQR 58.6-74.6, 19.9% female). Twenty patients had an early-RA (7.3% of the overall study population) and were found to be older, more severely symptomatic for HF, with a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (all p values<0.05). On the other hand, HF etiology and prevalence of CRT-D did not differ between the two groups. At univariate logistic regression analysis, we found the following factors as significantly associated with early-RA: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.10), NYHA class (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.01-5.82) and CKD (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.21-8.98), but these results were not confirmed at the multivariable logistic regression. After a median follow-up of 959 days (IQR 432-1484), patients reporting an early-RA had more primary outcome events (45.0% vs 12.3% p<0.001). At time-dependent multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction and type of CIED, we found that early-RA were independently associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 3.61, 95%CI 1.42-9.18) (Figure). Early-RA were also associated with a higher risk of death (HR 5.58, 95% CI 1.68-18.50) while no significant association was found for HF hospitalization (HR 2.46, 95% CI 0.80-7.57, p=0.116). Conclusions The occurrence of alerts detected by RM of CIEDs in a relatively early phase (within 180 days from implant), is associated with a higher risk of a composite of death and HF hospitalization in HF patients.Study Outcome according to Early RATime dependent Cox regression

#2477 Longitudinal serum bicarbonate and mortality risk in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: analyses from the EQUAL cohort

Abstract Background and Aims Serum bicarbonate (SBC) disorders have been consistently linked to mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Low SBC levels have been extensively associated with increased mortality in CKD patients, possibly due to the detrimental effects of acidosis on various organs and systems. Likewise, several studies have identified high levels of SBC as a risk factor for mortality in the CKD population. To date, most studies have focused on the association between SBC levels and patient survival during the pre-kidney replacement therapy (KRT) period or the period after KRT initiation, considered separately. None have explored this association across the continuum of CKD (e.g., from pre-KRT to post-KRT start), which is relevant since metabolic acidosis is expected to be managed through dialysis in the KRT population, and thus its clinical outcomes might change after KRT initiation. To provide new insights on this topic, we aimed to explore the relationship between SBC and mortality in advanced CKD during three distinct treatment periods: during the pre-KRT period, during the transition phase surrounding the start of KRT (transition-CKD), and during KRT. Method Using the European QUALity Study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL) cohort, which includes patients aged ≥65 years and eGFR ≤20 ml/min per 1.73 m2 from six European countries, we explored the association between longitudinal SBC and all-cause mortality in three separate CKD populations: pre-KRT, transition-CKD and in the KRT populations, using multivariable time-dependent Cox regression models. The cumulative time-averaged, the cumulative exposure of SBC, and the slope of the SBC trajectory during the pre-KRT phase were calculated and evaluated for association with all-cause mortality in the transition-CKD population. Subgroup analysis were used to evaluate the effect modification by pre-specified variables on the relationship between SBC and mortality. Results We included 1485 patients with a median follow-up of 2.9 (IQR 2.7) years, during which 529 (35.6%) patients died. A U-shaped relationship between SBC levels and all-cause mortality was observed in the pre-KRT population (p = 0.03; Fig.). Low cumulative exposure, defined as the area under the SBC trajectory before KRT initiation, was associated with increased mortality risk after transitioning to KRT (p = 0.01). Similarly, in the KRT population, low SBC levels showed a trend towards increased mortality risk (p = 0.13). We observed effect modification on the relationship between SBC and mortality by subjective global assessment category (p-value for interaction = 0.02) and KRT initiation (p-value for interaction = 0.02). Conclusion Our study has provided important insights into the relationship between SBC and mortality in advanced CKD patients. A U-shaped relationship describes the association between SBC and mortality in the advanced CKD pre-KRT population, whereas in patients that initiate KRT only low SBC levels are associated with an increased mortality risk. Our findings suggest that the relationship between SBC and mortality varies across different stages of CKD and that this relationship is modified by KRT initiation. From this point of view, it would be appropriate to consider a personalized management of acid-base balance disorders based on a comprehensive evaluation of the clinical status of the patient.

#2509 Longitudinal haemoglobin levels and mortality in an elderly population with advanced chronic kidney disease: insights from the EQUAL Study

Abstract Background and Aims The relationship between haemoglobin (Hb) levels and clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is more intricate than previously understood, as both low and high values can have detrimental effects. Although the association between Hb and patient outcomes is widely reported, few studies have focused on older patients with advanced CKD or have explored this relationship both before and after kidney replacement therapy (KRT) initiation. The primary objective of this study is to describe the relationship between Hb levels and mortality in older patients with advanced CKD in the continuum from pre-KRT phase to subsequent KRT initiation, and to evaluate any effect modification by KRT initiation. Method We used data from the European QUALity Study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL) cohort which includes patients aged ≥65 years and eGFR ≤20 ml/min per 1.73 m2 from six European countries. The association between Hb and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular [CV] and non-cardiovascular [non-CV] mortality) was explored in three separate CKD populations: pre-KRT, KRT and transition-CKD (transition phase surrounding the start of KRT) population. Multivariable adjusted time-dependent Cox regression models and natural cubic splines were used to investigate the association between longitudinal Hb levels (as categorical and continuous variable) and mortality risk in the pre-KRT and KRT population. The area under the Hb trajectory (AUC Hb) before KRT initiation was calculated to evaluate the relationship between the cumulative exposure of Hb before KRT initiation and all-cause mortality after KRT initiation in the transition-CKD population. We evaluated effect modification by pre-specified variables on the relationship between Hb and mortality. Results Overall, 1716 CKD patients were included in the study. During a median follow up of 3.0 years (IQR 2.6), 614 patients died, resulting in a 5-year survival probability of 51% (95% CI 48, 55). Low Hb levels were consistently associated with increased mortality risk in all study populations (Figure). A U-shaped association between both the lowest and highest levels of Hb and mortality risk was observed (Figure). A similar association was observed for non-CV mortality, with lower Hb values associated with an increased mortality risk (Figure). Conversely, a trend towards higher risk of cardiovascular death was observed as Hb levels increase, especially in the whole population and pre-KRT population (Figure), albeit not statistically significant. Low cumulative exposure of Hb in the transition-CKD population was associated with increased mortality risk after transitioning to KRT (p = 0.047). In subgroup analysis diabetic patients were more susceptible to low Hb levels (p-value for interaction = 0.003) while patients on ESA therapy (p-value for interaction = 0.005) or initiating KRT (p-value for interaction = 0.024) showed increased mortality risk for high Hb levels. Conclusion The relationship between Hb levels and mortality in advanced CKD patients is complex. Low Hb levels consistently indicate an increased risk of mortality, while high Hb levels also appear to have a negative effect, increasing mortality risk, particularly in patients receiving ESA therapy and after KRT initiation. Our work emphasizes how different stages of advanced kidney disease (i.e., before and after initiating KRT), as well as comorbidities such as diabetes or medications such as ESA therapy can significantly influence the relationship between Hb and mortality.

Surgical Complications Following Renal Transplantation in a Large Institutional Cohort.

Successful renal transplantation (RTx) relies on immunosuppression and an optimal surgical course with few surgical complications. Studies reporting the postoperative complications after RTx are heterogeneous and often lack systematic reporting of complications. This study aims to describe and identify postoperative short-term and long-term complications after RTx in a large institutional cohort and identify risk factors for a complicated surgical course. The study is a retrospective single-center cohort of 571 recipients who underwent living or deceased donor open RTx between 2014 and 2021. Data were collected on background information and perioperative and postoperative data. Complications were defined as short-term (<30 d) or long-term (>30 d) after transplantation and graded according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate risk factors for serious short-term complications and multivariable time-dependent Cox regression to evaluate risk factors for long-term complications. A total of 351 patients received a graft from a deceased donor, and 144 of these grafts were on perfusion machine before transplantation. One or more short-term complications occurred in 345 (60%) patients. Previous RTx was associated with short-term Clavien-Dindo >2 complications in recipients (odds ratio = 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-3.69; P = 0.01). Being underweight (body mass index <18.5) in combination with increasing age increased the odds of short-term Clavien-Dindo >2 and vascular complications. Increasing blood loss per 100 mL was associated with increased odds of short-term Clavien-Dindo >2 (odds ratio = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.21; P = 0.032). No associations were found for long-term complications after RTx. The 5-y cumulative incidence of graft loss was 12.6% (95% CI, 8.9-16.3). Short-term complications are common after RTx, and risk factors for severe short-term complications include previous RTx, increasing age, and low body mass index. No risk factors were identified for severe long-term complications. Further studies should explore whether new surgical techniques can reduce surgical complications in RTx.

Appendectomy and the Risk of Parkinson's Disease: A Korean Nationwide Study.

The vermiform appendix is considered a potential reservoir for the abnormal α-synuclein aggregate in Parkinson's disease (PD). Previous epidemiologic evidence on the association between appendectomy and PD risk remains inconclusive, especially outside the Western world. To investigate the association between appendectomy and PD risk in Korea. Among 703,831 eligible adult subjects in the National Health Insurance Service sample cohort, we identified 16,122 patients who underwent appendectomy. The rest formed the control group. PD risk was assessed using time-dependent Cox regression analyses. The appendectomy group did not have altered risk of PD compared with the control group in either unadjusted [hazard ratio (HR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.80, P = 0.08] or adjusted model (HR 1.42, CI 0.88-2.30, P = 0.15). No further statistical difference appeared when stratified by sex. Appendectomy is not associated with altered risk of PD in the Korean population.

Abstract PO4-01-13: Effect of interruption or discontinuation of endocrine therapy on the prognosis of breast cancer patients: a cohort study using the real-world database

Abstract Background:Adjuvant endocrine therapy is the most important treatment modality as long as one, which can reduce the mortality risk and the recurrence risk for patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Currently, few studies has reported the association in poor adherence with overall survival(OS) or disease-free-survival(DFS). However, the use of prescription coverage in previous studies to describe patient adherence to endocrine therapy may not be representative of the patient's actual medication. Additionally, previous studies did not distinguish between interruption and discontinuation of endocrine therapy, which is different to clinician. This research used rigorous follow-up data and aims on the effects of discontinuation and interruption on patients with early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Methods: Based on the Breast Cancer Information Management System (BCIMS), we identified patients diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer with hormone receptor-positive and received endocrine therapy during January 1, 1990 to January 1, 2018 in West China Hospital (WCH), Sichuan University, China. Briefly, all patients diagnosed with breast cancer were included and prospectively followed from the diagnosis at WCH or the first visit to WCH for breast cancer. Information, including demographic characteristics, medical history, laboratory results, pathological information, treatments and clinical outcomes, were obtained from clinical records and interviews. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Time-Dependent Cox Regression Model, and subgroup analysis were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of interruption or discontinuation of endocrine therapy. And “X-tile” software is used to select cutoff values in survivorship data. Results:A total of 3,418 eligible patients were included with 8.13(±1.96) years median follow-up. Of these patients, 19.5% did not adhere to standard endocrine regimens, with 6.9% discontinuing and 12.7% discontinuing. The multivariate cox analysis indicates that discontinuation group (DFS:HR=9.71, [95%CI]5.21-18.34,P &amp;lt;0.001; OS:HR=10.41, [95%CI]5.63-19.24,P &amp;lt;0.001) increased the risk of death and breast cancer events compared to the adherence group, but not shown statistical significance difference in the interruption (DFS:HR=1.03,[95%CI]0.23-4.66, P =0.975; OS:HR=1.17, [95%CI]0.26-5.28,P =0.840). We further analyzed the interruption and discontinuation group respectively. In the interruption group, we found cutoff value with 30 months in survival risks but didn't find statistical significance difference in DFS and OS compared to the adherence groups. For the discontinuation group, we divided the patients into low-risk and high-risk groups according to cutoff value (23 months), the final results showed that the high-risk group who took the endocrine therapy less than 23 months had increased the rate of OS(HR=23.98,[95%CI]11.71-49.14, P&amp;lt; 0.001) and DFS(HR=24.03,[95%CI]11.51-50.18, P&amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion:This study found that interruption of endocrine therapy may not affect prognosis of HR+ breast cancer patients, but prolonged discontinuation increases the risk of relapse and death. Therefore, clinicians should educate patients taking endocrine therapy and encourage those who discontinue the drug to take the drug again as soon as possible. A.Kaplan-Meier Curve for OS B.A.Kaplan-Meier Curve for DFS Kaplan-Meier Curve for OS and DFS in the Interruption Group according to the events location Kaplan-Meier Curve for OS and DFS in the Discontinuation Group according to the total duration of medication Citation Format: Ya Huang, Jie Chen, Yunhao Wu. Effect of interruption or discontinuation of endocrine therapy on the prognosis of breast cancer patients: a cohort study using the real-world database [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-01-13.

Revisiting the potential value of vital signs in the real-time prediction of mortality risk in intensive care unit patients

BackgroundPredicting patient mortality risk facilitates early intervention in intensive care unit (ICU) patients at greater risk of disease progression. This study applies machine learning methods to multidimensional clinical data to dynamically predict mortality risk in ICU patients.MethodsA total of 33,798 patients in the MIMIC-III database were collected. An integrated model NIMRF (Network Integrating Memory Module and Random Forest) based on multidimensional variables such as vital sign variables and laboratory variables was developed to predict the risk of death for ICU patients in four non overlapping time windows of 0–1 h, 1–3 h, 3–6 h, and 6–12 h. Mortality risk in four nonoverlapping time windows of 12 h was externally validated on data from 889 patients in the respiratory critical care unit of the Chinese PLA General Hospital and compared with LSTM, random forest and time-dependent cox regression model (survival analysis) methods. We also interpret the developed model to obtain important factors for predicting mortality risk across time windows. The code can be found in https://github.com/wyuexiao/NIMRF.ResultsThe NIMRF model developed in this study could predict the risk of death in four nonoverlapping time windows (0–1 h, 1–3 h, 3–6 h, 6–12 h) after any time point in ICU patients, and in internal data validation, it is suggested that the model is more accurate than LSTM, random forest prediction and time-dependent cox regression model (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, or AUC, 0–1 h: 0.8015 [95% CI 0.7725–0.8304] vs. 0.7144 [95%] CI 0.6824–0.7464] vs. 0.7606 [95% CI 0.7300–0.7913] vs 0.3867 [95% CI 0.3573–0.4161]; 1–3 h: 0.7100 [95% CI 0.6777–0.7423] vs. 0.6389 [95% CI 0.6055–0.6723] vs. 0.6992 [95% CI 0.6667–0.7318] vs 0.3854 [95% CI 0.3559–0.4150]; 3–6 h: 0.6760 [95% CI 0.6425–0.7097] vs. 0.5964 [95% CI 0.5622–0.6306] vs. 0.6760 [95% CI 0.6427–0.7099] vs 0.3967 [95% CI 0.3662–0.4271]; 6–12 h: 0.6380 [0.6031–0.6729] vs. 0.6032 [0.5705–0.6406] vs. 0.6055 [0.5682–0.6383] vs 0.4023 [95% CI 0.3709–0.4337]). External validation was performed on the data of patients in the respiratory critical care unit of the Chinese PLA General Hospital. Compared with LSTM, random forest and time-dependent cox regression model, the NIMRF model was still the best, with an AUC of 0.9366 [95% CI 0.9157–0.9575 for predicting death risk in 0–1 h]. The corresponding AUCs of LSTM, random forest and time-dependent cox regression model were 0.9263 [95% CI 0.9039–0.9486], 0.7437 [95% CI 0.7083–0.7791] and 0.2447 [95% CI 0.2202–0.2692], respectively. Interpretation of the model revealed that vital signs (systolic blood pressure, heart rate, diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, and body temperature) were highly correlated with events of death.ConclusionUsing the NIMRF model can integrate ICU multidimensional variable data, especially vital sign variable data, to accurately predict the death events of ICU patients. These predictions can assist clinicians in choosing more timely and precise treatment methods and interventions and, more importantly, can reduce invasive procedures and save medical costs.

Coexisting atrial fibrillation and cancer: time trends and associations with mortality in a nationwide Dutch study.

Coexisting atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer challenge the management of both. The aim of the study is to comprehensively provide the epidemiology of coexisting AF and cancer. Using Dutch nationwide statistics, individuals with incident AF (n = 320 139) or cancer (n = 472 745) were identified during the period 2015-19. Dutch inhabitants without a history of AF (n = 320 135) or cancer (n = 472 741) were matched as control cohorts by demographic characteristics. Prevalence of cancer/AF at baseline, 1-year risk of cancer/AF diagnosis, and their time trends were determined. The association of cancer/AF diagnosis with all-cause mortality among those with AF/cancer was estimated by using time-dependent Cox regression. The rate of prevalence of cancer in the AF cohort was 12.6% (increasing from 11.9% to 13.2%) compared with 5.6% in the controls; 1-year cancer risk was 2.5% (stable over years) compared with 1.8% in the controls [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-1.58], which was similar by cancer type. The rate of prevalence of AF in the cancer cohort was 7.5% (increasing from 6.9% to 8.2%) compared with 4.3% in the controls; 1-year AF risk was 2.8% (stable over years) compared with 1.2% in the controls (aHR 2.78, 95% CI 2.69-2.87), but cancers of the oesophagus, lung, stomach, myeloma, and lymphoma were associated with higher hazards of AF than other cancer types. Both cancer diagnosed after incident AF (aHR 7.77, 95% CI 7.45-8.11) and AF diagnosed after incident cancer (aHR 2.55, 95% CI 2.47-2.63) were associated with all-cause mortality, but the strength of the association varied by cancer type. Atrial fibrillation and cancer were associated bidirectionally and were increasingly coexisting, but AF risk varied by cancer type. Coexisting AF and cancer were negatively associated with survival.

Temporal characteristics and associated factors of discontinuation and outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Background: Medication adherence in patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is suboptimal, and discontinuation is common. Information on the temporal characteristics and associated factors of discontinuation and outcomes after PCI is insufficient to improve medication adherence interventions. Methods: We conducted a single-center retrospective study of post-PCI patients by telephone survey and medical record extraction. Temporal characteristics and associated factors of discontinuation and outcomes were examined by survival curve analysis, Cox regression, or time-dependent Cox regression. Results: Discontinuation and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after PCI had similar temporal characteristics, with the highest incidence in the first year, followed by a decline. Temporary discontinuation was associated with pre-PCI medication nonadherence (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.09-2.43), lack of medication necessity (HR 2.33; 95% CI: 1.44-3.78), economic difficulties (HR 2.09; 95% CI: 1.26-3.47), routine disruption (HR 2.09; 95% CI: 1.10-3.99), and emotional distress (HR 2.76; 95% CI: 1.50-5.09). Permanent discontinuation was associated with residence in rural areas (HR 4.18; 95% CI: 1.84-9.46) or small to medium-sized cities (HR 4.21; 95% CI: 1.82-9.73), lack of medication necessity (HR 10.60; 95% CI: 6.45-17.41), and side effects (HR 3.30; 95% CI: 1.94-5.62). The MACE after PCI was associated with pre-PCI hypertension (HR 1.42; 95% CI: 1.04-1.96), two coronary stents (HR 1.42; 95% CI: 1.01-1.99) or three coronary stents (HR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.11-2.49) compared to one coronary stent up to this PCI, and temporary discontinuation (≤60 months HR 2.18; 95% CI: 1.47-3.25; >60 months HR 8.82; 95% CI: 3.65-21.28). Conclusion: Discontinuation and MACE after PCI have similar temporal characteristics, temporary discontinuation and permanent discontinuation have different associated factors, and the former is associated with MACE. These findings may provide guidance for medication adherence interventions.

The association between trajectory of serum cholesterol, statin dosage, and the risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases

BackgroundStatins may reduce the risk of recurrent gallstone disease by decreasing bile cholesterol saturation and pathogenicity. However, limited studies have investigated this issue. This study aimed to assess whether statin doses and serum cholesterol levels were associated with a decreased risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases after the first event index, with a follow-up time of 15 years. MethodsBased on the Chang Gung Research Database (CGRD) between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2020, we enrolled 68,384 patients with the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision codes of choledocholithiasis. After exclusions, 32,696 patients were divided into non-statin (<28 cDDD, cumulative defined daily doses) (n = 27,929) and statin (≥28 cDDD) (n = 4767) user groups for analysis. Serum cholesterol trajectories were estimated using group-based trajectory modeling (n = 8410). ResultsThe statin users had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores than the non-statin users. Time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that statin use >365 cDDD was associated with a significantly lower risk of recurrent biliary stones (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.28, 95% CI, 0.24–0.34; p < 00.0001), acute pancreatitis (aHR = 0.24, 95% CI, 0.17–0.32, p < 00.0001), and cholangitis (aHR = 0.28, 95% CI, 0.25–0.32, p < 00.0001). Cholecystectomy was also a protective factor for recurrent biliary stones (aHR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.37–0.46; p < 00.0001). The higher trajectory serum cholesterol group (Group 3) had a lower risk trend for recurrent biliary stones (aHR = 0.79, p = 0.0700) and a lower risk of cholangitis (aHR = 0.79, p = 0.0071). ConclusionThis study supports the potential benefits of statin use and the role of cholecystectomy in reducing the risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases.

The association between mean arterial pressure and acute kidney injury reversal among patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

This study informs how mean arterial pressure (MAP) impacts acute kidney injury (AKI) recovery among all patients hospitalized with cirrhosis, regardless of etiology. We identified incident AKI episodes among subjects in our cohort of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. AKI was defined as a ≥50% increase in creatinine from an outpatient baseline (≥7 days prior) that required hospitalization. Linear mixed effects models were completed to determine the impact between AKI recovery, MAP, and time. To determine the impact of MAP on AKI reversal, we completed time-dependent Cox regression models with time beginning at the time of peak creatinine and ending at death, discharge, or AKI reversal, among those hospitalized with AKI and those with persistent AKI (≥48h) We identified 702 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis with AKI. We found those with AKI reversal had, on average, higher MAP (2.1mmHg, p <0.05) and a greater increase in MAP over time (0.1mmHg per hour, p <0.001). Among all 702 hospitalized patients with AKI and adjusted for confounders, each 5mmHg increase in MAP was associated with 1.07× the hazard of AKI reversal ( p <0.01). Similarly, among those with persistent AKI after adjusting for confounders, each 5mmHg increase in MAP was associated with a 1.19× greater likelihood of AKI reversal ( p <0.001). Our data demonstrate that MAP significantly increases the likelihood of AKI recovery regardless of severity or injury or AKI phenotype. We believe these data highlight the importance of MAP as a clinical tool to promote kidney function recovery among patients with cirrhosis hospitalized with AKI.

Outpatient mean arterial pressure: A potentially modifiable risk for acute kidney injury and death among patients with cirrhosis.

Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), which decreases as portal hypertension progresses, may be a modifiable risk factor among patients with cirrhosis. We included adults enrolled in the Functional Assessment in Liver Transplantation study. We completed latent class trajectory analyses to define MAP trajectories. We completed time-dependent Cox-regression analyses to test the association between outpatient MAP and 3 cirrhosis-related outcomes: (1) stage 2 acute kidney injury (AKI), defined as a ≥200% increase in serum creatinine from baseline; (2) a 5-point increase in the MELD-Na score, defined as the incidence of increase from initial MELD-Na; (3) waitlist mortality, defined as death on the waitlist. For each outcome, we defined MAP cut points by determining the maximally selected Log-rank statistic after univariable Cox-regression analyses. Among the 1786 patients included in this analysis, our latent class trajectory analyses identified 3 specific outpatient MAP trajectories: "stable-low," "stable-high," and "increasing-to-decreasing." However, >80% of patients were in a "stable-low" trajectory. We found in adjusted analyses that outpatient MAP was associated with each of our outcomes: Stage 2 AKI (adjusted hazard ratio 0.88 per 10mmHg increase in MAP [95% CI: 0.79-0.99]); 5-point increase in MELD-Na (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.91 [95% CI: 0.86-0.96]; waitlist mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81-0.96]). For each outcome, we found that an outpatient MAP of 82mmHg was most associated with outcomes ( p <0.05 for all). Our study informs the association between outpatient MAP and cirrhosis-related outcomes. These findings, coupled with the identification of specific thresholds, lay the foundation for the trial of targeted outpatient MAP modulation in patients with cirrhosis.

Abstract MP23: Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk of Dementia in the General Population: Observational and Genetic Studies

Importance: Cardiovascular diseases are associated with increased risk of subtypes of dementia. The causal nature is however unclear. Objective: To assess observational and genetic associations between a range of cardiovascular disease and risk of all-cause dementia and its major subtypes. Design, Settings, and Participants: We performed time-dependent Cox regression analyses in three prospective cohorts, the Copenhagen City Heart Study (N=10,373), the Copenhagen General Population Study (N=101,582), and the UK Biobank (N=377,706); median follow-up times were 15, 9, and 13 years, respectively. Estimates from each cohort were pooled in meta-analyses using fixed-effects models. Subsequently, we investigated genetic susceptibility for cardiovascular diseases and risk of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia, using individual-level data from the UK Biobank and summary statistics from the FinnGen study. Exposures: Ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, hypertensive heart disease, stroke, ischemic stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and the combination of all. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes include all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia. Measures are hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in observational studies and odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs in genetic studies. Results: Observationally, cardiovascular diseases were associated with high future risk of incident all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia in meta-analyses, with HRs up to 7.49 (95% CI: 6.63, 8.46). Genetically, using individual level data from the UK Biobank, predisposition to ischemic stroke was associated with high risk of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia, with ORs of 1.64 (1.35, 1.98), 1.44 (1.10, 1.89), and 2.06 (1.41, 3.01), respectively, with similar estimates for ischemic stroke; genetic predisposition to ischemic heart disease was associated with high risk of vascular dementia, with an OR of 1.24 (1.03, 1.50). Genetic summary-level data from the FinnGen study confirmed the estimates for stroke and ischemic stroke. Conclusion and Relevance: Our study provides novel evidence that the association between stroke and all-cause dementia and its major subtypes may be of a causal nature. Further, we observe that genetic susceptibility for ischemic heart disease is associated with incident vascular dementia. These findings underscore the importance of integrating cardiovascular disease prevention into interventions to reduce dementia risk.

Serum uric acid levels and prognosis of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Uric acid (UA) is associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, it is unclear whether UA plays a predictive role in NAFLD prognosis. This study aimed to explore the relationship between UA levels and mortality in NAFLD patients without severe renal disease. Data were obtained from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Time-dependent Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality. Overall, 2493 individuals with NAFLD and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were included in this study. The median follow-up period was 26.58 years. Patients were divided into high and low-UA groups according to UA levels. Time-independent Cox regression showed that UA level was not an independent risk factor for mortality in NAFLD patients without decreased eGFR (P > 0.05). After matching for age and sex using the propensity score matching method, UA remained not independently associated with death in NAFLD patients (P > 0.05). Similar results were found for cardiovascular-related and cancer-related deaths. Although UA is closely related to NAFLD, UA levels are not independently associated with the long-term survival of patients with NAFLD without decreased eGFR.

Association of body composition indices with cardiovascular outcomes: a nationwide cohort study

BackgroundPrevious studies regarding BMI (kg/m2) and associated cardiovascular outcomes yield inconsistent results. ObjectivesWe aimed to investigate the association between body composition and cardiovascular outcomes according to BMI categories in the Korean general population. MethodsA total of 2,604,401 participants were enrolled in this nationwide cohort study using the National Health Insurance Service-Health Checkup data set. Predicted lean BMI (pLBMI), body fat mass index (pBFMI), and appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (pASMMI) were calculated using validated anthropometric prediction equations. A multivariable time-dependent Cox regression analysis was conducted to assess the association with cardiovascular outcomes. The results were presented with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), considering BMI categories (BMI < 18.5, BMI 18.5–24.9, BMI 25–29.9, and BMI ≥ 30). ResultsHigher pLBMI and pASMMI were correlated with a reduced risk of composite cardiovascular outcomes. For pLBMI, HR was 0.910 (95% CI: 0.908, 0.913, P < 0.001) for males and 0.905 (95% CI: 0.899, 0.910, P < 0.001) for females. For pASMMI, HR was 0.825 (95% CI: 0.820, 0.829, P < 0.001) for males and 0.788 (95% CI: 0.777, 0.800, P < 0.001) for females. Conversely, a higher pBFMI was associated with an increased risk, with HR of 1.082 (95% CI: 1.071, 1.093, P < 0.001) for males and 1.181 (95% CI: 1.170, 1.192, P < 0.001) for females. Subgroup analysis based on BMI categories revealed no significant risk association for pBFMI in the BMI < 18.5 group. In the group with BMI ≥ 30, neither pLBMI nor pASMMI demonstrated a significant risk association. ConclusionsOur results highlight the value of pLBMI, pBFMI, and pASMMI as variables for assessing risk of composite cardiovascular outcomes. The significance of indicators may vary depending on BMI categories.

Thyroid dysfunction after immune checkpoint inhibitors in a single-centre UK pan-cancer cohort: A retrospective study

PurposeThis study investigated thyroid dysfunction with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in terms of proportions affected, risk factors, thyroid sequelae, and overall survival (OS). MethodsAmong patients with normal baseline free T4 (fT4) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) receiving ICIs at a large cancer centre, proportions of hyperthyroidism/hypothyroidism were determined (any, subclinical [normal fT4, abnormal TSH], overt [abnormal fT4, abnormal TSH], isolated hyperthyroxinaemia/hypothyroxinaemia and secondary) with onset times and subsequent thyroid statuses. Associations of overt dysfunction with OS were estimated using Cox regression and methods robust to immortal time bias (time-dependent Cox regression and 3- and 6-month landmark analyses). Associations of baseline variables with overt hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were estimated using Fine and Gray regression. ResultsOf 1349 patients, 34.2% developed hyperthyroidism (10.3% overt), including 54.9% receiving combination ICIs, while 28.2% developed hypothyroidism (overt 9.3%, secondary 0.5%). A third of overt hypothyroidism cases occurred without preceding hyperthyroidism. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction returned directly to normal in up to half. Overt hyperthyroidism progressed to overt hypothyroidism in 55.4% (median 1.6 months). Melanoma treatment in the adjuvant vs. advanced setting caused more overt hyperthyroidism (12.1% vs. 7.5%) and overt hypothyroidism (14.5% vs. 9.7%). Baseline eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (HR=1.68, 1.07–2.63) was associated with overt hyperthyroidism and sex (HR=0.60, 0.42–0.87) and TSH (4th vs. 1st quartile HR=1.87, 1.10–3.19) with overt hypothyroidism. Overt dysfunction was associated with OS in the Cox analysis (HR=0.65, 0.50–0.85, median follow-up 22.2 months) but not in the time-dependent Cox (HR=0.79, 0.60–1.03) or landmark analyses (3-month HR=0.74, 0.51–1.07; 6-month HR=0.91, 0.66–1.24). ConclusionThyroid dysfunction affects up to half of patients receiving ICIs. The association with OS is unclear after considering immortal time bias. The clinical courses include recovery, thyrotoxicosis and de novo overt hypothyroidism. Adjuvant treatment for melanoma, where longer-term harms are of concern, causes more frequent/aggressive dysfunction.

The dilution effect of healthy lifestyles on the risk of cognitive function attributed to socioeconomic status among Chinese older adults: A national wide prospective cohort study.

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is a risk factor for poor cognitive function, while a healthy lifestyle is associated with better cognitive function. We examined the complex relationship between SES and a healthy lifestyle and cognitive function among older Chinese adults. We used a national prospective cohort of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 2008-18, aged 65 years and older with normal cognition at baseline. Participants were categorised into the favourable group if they had four to six healthy lifestyle factors and the unfavourable group for zero to three factors. SES was classified as higher and lower by assessing the socioeconomic vulnerability index (SEVI) with six components. Cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores and the standardised Z-scores. We applied the linear mixed effects and time-dependent Cox regression models to explore associations and further stratified the analysis by healthy lifestyles. A total of 6851 participants were included (the mean age was 80.87, 43.44% had a favourable lifestyle, and 49.29% had higher SES). Over the 10-year follow-up period, SES status and lifestyle profiles significantly affected the decline in the standardised Z-scores (P < 0.05). The higher SES group with favourable lifestyles exhibited a slower cognitive decline than those with lower SES (by 0.031 points per year, P < 0.05). The association was not observed in those in the unfavourable group (0.010 points per year, P > 0.05). During a follow-up, 25.06% of participants developed cognitive impairment (MMSE<18). We also observed a significant interaction between SES and healthy lifestyles (P < 0.05), with the corresponding associations of SES being more pronounced among participants with unfavourable lifestyles (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.821; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.701-0.960) than those with favourable lifestyles (HR = 1.006; 95% CI = 0.844-1.200). A healthy lifestyle may attenuate the adverse impacts of lower SES on cognitive function among older adults. This study might provide important information for protecting cognitive function, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Performance of a tumor-informed molecular residual disease (MRD) assay in resected bladder cancer with mixed or pure variant histology: Analysis of a real-world multicenter cohort.

649 Background: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based MRD assays can detect clinically occult disease with high sensitivity and specificity in patients with solid tumors. Previous trials that evaluated MRD testing in bladder cancer, such as ABACUS and IMVigor010, enrolled patients with a predominant urothelial carcinoma component. Given the known histological and molecular heterogeneity in urothelial carcinoma, we examined the prognostic value of a tumor-informed MRD assay in bladder cancer patients with mixed or pure variant histologies (M/VH). Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the results of post-cystectomy longitudinal ctDNA testing from a multi-institutional database of patients with urothelial carcinoma (n=205). A personalized, tumor-informed assay (Signatera, Natera, Inc.) was used for the detection and quantification of ctDNA. Patients with M/VH and at least 3 months of postoperative follow-up data on relevant demographic, clinical, pathologic, and NGS variables were eligible for inclusion. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed for disease-free survival (DFS) based on ctDNA during the MRD window (&lt;12 weeks from surgery, N=29) and surveillance window (&gt;12 weeks post-surgery or post-AT, N=29). Multivariable regression was performed to adjust hazards for clinicopathologic factors predicting DFS. Results: Of the 205 patients, 46 (74% male, median age: 69 years) met the inclusion criteria for analysis. Whole exome sequencing of tumor tissue revealed that TP53 (45.7%), ARID1A (32.6%), and KDM6A (30.4%) were the top three genes with somatic mutations. Twenty-seven (59%) patients received neoadjuvant therapy, 37% of whom (10/27) also received adjuvant therapy. ctDNA-positivity during the MRD window and during surveillance was strongly associated with poor DFS (MRD window: HR=4.93, 95%CI: 1.77-20.77, p=0.03; surveillance: HR=28.3, 95% CI: 3.52-3660, p&lt;0.001). None of the serially ctDNA-negative patients (N=25) recurred, whereas 58.9% (10/17) of patients who were ctDNA-positive anytime post-surgery recurred at a median follow-up of 9 months from the date of surgery, range: 3.1-36.4 months). When adjusted for all other risk factors, ctDNA-positivity anytime post-surgery was the only significant predictor of recurrence (HR=55.26, 95%CI: 5.3-7648, p&lt;0.00001). Conclusions: Personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA testing can identify patients with mixed or variant histology bladder cancer who are at high risk of recurrence. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the potential benefit of ctDNA-guided adjuvant therapy in this patient population.

Overexpression of tousled-like kinase 2 predicts poor prognosis in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radical resection.

Background: Tousled-like kinase 2 (TLK2) is integral to DNA repair, replication, and cell cycle regulation, crucial for maintaining genome stability and integrity. However, the expression and prognostic value of TLK2 in hepatitis B viral (HBV) -related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. Methods: We examined TLK2 expression and prognostic implications in pan-cancer by using diverse databases. Subsequently, TLK2 expression in HBV-related HCC tissues and adjacent tissues was assessed using quantitative real-time PCR and immunohistochemistry. The prognostic value of TLK2 was assessed through ROC curves, time-dependent ROC curves, Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier curve, and decision curve analysis. Additionally, analyses of immune infiltration, protein-protein interactions, key molecules of tumor-related signaling pathways, molecular subtypes, and TLK2-associated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were conducted, along with GO/KEGG and GSEA enrichment analyses. Results: TLK2 expression was significantly higher in HCC tissues compared to adjacent tissues and correlated with gender, AFP levels, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, microvascular invasion (MVI), maximum tumor diameter, tumor number, and TNM stage. TLK2 overexpression emerged as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in HBV-related HCC patients. An integrated OS nomogram model, incorporating TLK2, age, ALBI grade, MVI, and tumor number, displayed enhanced prognostic capability (C-index: 0.765, 95% CI: 0.732-0.798) in predicting OS and has a higher net benefit than the TNM stage. Moreover, TLK2 expression correlated closely with immune cell infiltration and key molecules of signaling pathways. Functional enrichment analyses highlighted significant associations with DNA duplex unwinding, double-strand break repair, DNA replication, cell cycle, E2F targets, G2M checkpoint, and MYC targets V1. Conclusion: TLK2 is notably overexpressed in HBV-related HCC and emerges as a promising prognostic biomarker, necessitating further validation.

Effects of treatment with clopidogrel with or without proton pump inhibitor omeprazole on the risk of ischemic stroke: a nationwide cohort study

Most proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) inhibit the bioactivation of clopidogrel to its active metabolite. There is controversy concerning whether PPIs alter the effectiveness of clopidogrel in reducing the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). We therefore aimed to examine the risk of IS associated with concomitant use of clopidogrel and omeprazole, a PPI commonly used in clinical settings. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan dated from 2000 to 2013. The study cohorts comprised 407 patients diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and with concomitant use of clopidogrel and omeprazole (the exposed cohort), 814 ACS patients with single use of clopidogrel (the comparison cohort), and 230 ACS patients with concurrent use of clopidogrel and pantoprazole (the reference cohort). The primary outcome was incident IS. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from the time-dependent Cox regression model were used to assess the association between concomitant use of clopidogrel and omeprazole and the risk of IS. The incidence rate of IS was significantly higher in the exposed cohort (81.67 per 1000 person-years) than in the comparison cohort (57.45 per 1000 person-years), resulting in an adjusted HR of 1.39 (95% CI 1.03–1.74). By contrast, there was no significant difference in the risk of IS between the exposed and reference cohorts (adjusted HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.81–1.52). The present study revealed that patients taking both clopidogrel and omeprazole was associated with an increased risk of IS.