Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Research Articles

A216 MODERATE TO SEVERE ACUTE UPPER GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING IN RURAL NORTHERN ONTARIO: AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF AETIOLOGIES, GEOGRAPHIC LIMITATIONS, AND OUTCOMES

Abstract Background Hospitalizations for upper gastrointestinal bleeds (UGIBs) are resource-demanding as they often require blood transfusion, endoscopy, and intensive care unit admission. Referral centers that provide higher levels of care to remote regions treat illnesses, including UGIB, in much later stages of disease and of higher severity. The Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Center (TBRHSC) is a referral center servicing over 250,000 people over a geographically expansive region of Northern Ontario. Despite known barriers to accessing care, little data is currently available to guide our understanding of UGIB aetiologies, severity, and outcomes among patients living remotely in Canada. Aims This retrospective study aimed to evaluate epidemiological data among patients with UGIB at TBRHSC. Methods Of 441 patients with a discharge diagnosis of gastrointestinal hemorrhage from 2016–2022, inclusion criteria were met for 333. Patients under 18 y or with lower GIB were excluded. Patients were classified as regional if their primary address was outside the District of Thunder Bay. Results Patients were highly comorbid (median CCI = 5) and presented with a median (IQR) GBS of 9 (6) and Clinical Rockall Score of 3 (1). Of those who received inpatient endoscopy (n=248), findings included erosive gastritis (21%), gastric ulcer (14%), esophagitis (12%), duodenal ulcer (8%), AVM (7%), and variceal (6%). No definite lesion was observed in 62 patients (22%). The median (IQR) Complete Rockall Score was 4 (2) with major stigmata of recent hemorrhage found in 20%. There was a high prevalence (19%) of cirrhosis, of which 83% had a history of liver decompensation. In 49% of cirrhotic patients, culprit lesions did not include portal hypertensive gastropathy or variceal bleeding. Regional patients accounted for 14% of the population and travelled an average of 424 km to seek care at TBRHSC. Regional patients were younger and required more ICU admissions (p=0.01). ICU admission primarily due to UGIB was 5.4% and all-cause thirty-day mortality was 3.3%. Oral anti-coagulation use prevalence was 43.2% and was associated with a longer length of stay (pampersand:003C0.0001), higher proportion of all-cause 30-day mortality (pampersand:003C0.005). Forty-eight patients did not receive endoscopy due to bleeding stability, palliation, and preference. Conclusions Patients with UGIB at TBRHSC are a highly multimorbid population with a significantly burden of anticoagulant use, cirrhosis, and variceal bleeding. Comparative analysis with metropolitan centers will expand our understanding for providing UGIB care in Northern Ontario. Funding Agencies NOAMA

Developing a machine learning model to predict patient need for computed tomography imaging in the emergency department.

Overcrowding is a well-known problem in hospitals and emergency departments (ED) that can negatively impact patients and staff. This study aims to present a machine learning model to detect a patient's need for a Computed Tomography (CT) exam in the emergency department at the earliest possible time. The data for this work was collected from ED at Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre over one year (05/2016-05/2017) and contained administrative triage information. The target outcome was whether or not a patient required a CT exam. Multiple combinations of text embedding methods, machine learning algorithms, and data resampling methods were experimented with to find the optimal model for this task. The final model was trained with 81, 118 visits and tested on a hold-out test set with a size of 9, 013 visits. The best model achieved a ROC AUC score of 0.86 and had a sensitivity of 87.3% and specificity of 70.9%. The most important factors that led to a CT scan order were found to be chief complaint, treatment area, and triage acuity. The proposed model was able to successfully identify patients needing a CT using administrative triage data that is available at the initial stage of a patient's arrival. By determining that a CT scan is needed early in the patient's visit, the ED can allocate resources to ensure these investigations are completed quickly and patient flow is maintained to reduce overcrowding.

Incidence of poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis in northwestern Ontario: Cross-sectional study at a tertiary care centre.

To measure the incidence of poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (PSGN) and resulting complications in northwestern Ontario, including among Indigenous and rural populations. Cross-sectional study. As the only tertiary care hospital in northwestern Ontario, Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (TBRHSC) functions as the primary referral centre for most of the region. The catchment population has substantial Indigenous (21.5%) and rural (34.2%) populations. All cases of PSGN managed at TBRHSC over an 8-year period from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017. Cases were classified as confirmed, probable, or possible based on the type of evidence available. Patients' rurality and Indigenous status were recorded. Incidence rates and incidence rate ratios of all, pediatric (<18 years), and adult PSGN cases were calculated, as were incidence rates and incidence rate ratios of those requiring dialysis. Linear interpolation and extrapolation were used to estimate the population in non-census years. Over the 8-year study period, 33 cases of PSGN were observed with annual incidence rates of 0.0 to 4.8 per 100,000 person-years and a mean annual incidence rate of 1.8 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.5) per 100,000 person-years. Of these 33 cases, 28 were confirmed with renal biopsy or clinical and laboratory data. Indigenous patients accounted for 61% (n=17) of confirmed cases and were 6.0 (95% CI 2.8 to 13, P<.001) times as likely to have PSGN and 9.6 (95% CI 3.0 to 31, P<.001) times as likely to require dialysis compared with non-Indigenous patients. Patients living in rural areas accounted for 71% (n=20) of confirmed cases and were 3.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 7.3, P=.006) times as likely to have PSGN and 3.9 (95% CI 1.0 to 10, P=.02) times as likely to require dialysis compared with patients in urban areas. The main burden of PSGN in northwestern Ontario occurs among Indigenous and rural populations. Additional research is required to investigate the true overall burden of PSGN in the region. In collaboration with regional Indigenous groups, advocacy is needed for PSGN to be made reportable and public health action must be taken to address these pronounced disparities.

Adverse pathological outcomes of patients with de novo muscle invasive bladder cancer in Northern Ontario.

This study aimed to investigate the clinical and pathological characteristics of patients with de novo muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who underwent radical cystectomy in Northern Ontario. This is a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients with de novo T2 MIBC who underwent radical cystectomy over a 2-year-period in Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre. Clinical and pathological characteristics of Trans Urethral Resection of Bladder Tumors and cystectomy specimens were analyzed. Of the 59 patients aged 67 ± 8.8 years, predominated by males (80%), 27.1% were younger than age 60. After surgery, upstaging was noted in 59.3% (T3 in 27.1% and T4 in 32.2%) while node positive was noted in 36% of patients. Prostate adenocarcinoma was incidentally discovered in 20 (34%) of patients with 50% considered significant (Gleason score ≥ 7). Downstaging was found in those who had neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.001). The high prevalence of younger ages (less than 60), a high rate of upstaging, the presence of high-grade incidental prostate cancer, and lymph node positives in T2 de novo MIBC in Northern Ontario, warrants further investigation of potential causes and risk factors at individual, public, and population health levels in the region.

Abstract OT1-11-02: A pragmatic, randomised, multicentre trial evaluating the dose timing (morning vs evening) of endocrine therapy and its effects on tolerability and compliance (REaCT-CHRONO Study)

Abstract Background. Endocrine therapy (ET) is the mainstay treatment for hormonal receptor positive (HR+) breast cancer. ET non-compliance and non-persistence vary from 30 to 70% and are associated with reduced disease-free and overall survival. ET side effects are an important cause of non-adherence. In clinical practice, there are anecdotal reports that time of the day at which ET is taken may affect ET side effects and compliance. However, we are not aware of any high-quality studies supporting this practice. In other fields of medicine, there is evidence to suggest that the time of the day at which medication is taken can alter its effect and/or the adherence. This is known as chronotherapy. Methods. In this pragmatic, open-label, multicenter trial, eligible and consented patients with an early stage or locally advanced HR+ breast cancer will be randomized (1:1) to receive either: an ET morning dose (Arm A: within 1 hour of the patient wake up time) or an ET evening dose (Arm B: within 1 hour of patient bed time). The primary endpoint is endocrine toxicity and tolerability measured by the change in total Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Endocrine Subscale (FACT-ES) score from baseline to 12 weeks following the beginning of ET. Secondary endpoints include: endocrine toxicity/tolerability and quality of life measured respectively by the change in total score and individual items of FACT-ES and FACT-B (a validated Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy for patients with a Breast cancer) from baseline to 4, 8, 12 and 52 weeks following the beginning of ET, rates of non-persistence or non-compliance and cost-effectiveness. A timing preference questionnaire will be filled out at the beginning and the end of the study by patients to evaluate their preferred time. As per the Rethinking Clinical Trials (REaCT) program, the integrated consent model will be used and patients will complete questionnaires in the online patient portal. For randomization, a permuted block design developed by the Ottawa Methods Centre will be used and patients will be stratified by center, type of endocrine therapy (tamoxifen yes/no) and if prior chemotherapy was received. Using a two-sided, alpha=0.05 Fisher’s exact test, and assuming a 10% of loss to follow up, the planned sample size is 235 patients. Accrual. This study opened for enrollment at The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre on June 30, 2021 and will open soon at the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre. The maximum accrual period is 2 years. Conclusion. This will be world’s first prospective randomized clinical trial to evaluate ET dose timing (morning versus evening) and its effects on tolerability and adherence. Changing the time of the day at which a medication is taken is a new, simple and easy intervention that does not generate additional costs and can improve the quality of life of breast cancer patients. Funding provided by: NOAMA (Northern Ontario Academic Medicine Association) Innovation Grant (2021) Clinical Trial Registration: NCT04864405 Citation Format: Marie-France Savard, Mohammed Ibrahim, Gregory Pond, Deanna Saunders, Lisa Vandermeer, Ana-Alicia Beltran-Bless, Lesley Fallowfield, Mark Clemons. A pragmatic, randomised, multicentre trial evaluating the dose timing (morning vs evening) of endocrine therapy and its effects on tolerability and compliance (REaCT-CHRONO Study) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT1-11-02.

Diagnostic assessment program for prostate cancer: Lessons learned after 2 years and degree of compliance to Canadian guidelines.

In 2018, our Institute launched the Diagnostic Assessment Program (DAP) for prostate cancer. It enabled quick access to a urologist for patients presented to family physician with elevated PSA and allowed fast multidisciplinary patient care. We aim to document our data over 2 years in comparison to data before implementation of DAP and its impact on the degree of adherence to Canadian guidelines. From April 2016 to April 2020, 880 patients who were evaluated for prostate cancer at Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (TBRHSC) were included in this study. Patients' characteristics, clinical data, waiting times and line of treatment before and after implementation of DAP were calculated and statistically analysed. The median waiting time to urology consultation was significantly reduced from 68 (IQR 27-168) days to 34 (23-44) days (p < 0.001). The time from patient's referral to prostate biopsy decreased substantially from 34 (20-66) days to 18(11- 25) days after DAP (p < 0.001). After DAP, the percentage of Gleason 6 detected prostate cancers were significantly increased (19.7% to 30%) (p = 0.02). After DAP, rate for intermediate-risk patients elected for external beam radiotherapy (from 53.5% to 57.9%, p = 0.53) and radical prostatectomy (from 34.5% to 39.4%, p = 0.47) increased. More compliance to Canadian guidelines was observed in intermediate risk patients (88% vs 97.3%, p =.008). Implementation of DAP has led to a notable reduction of waiting time to urology consult and prostate biopsy. There is significant increase in Gleason 6 detected prostate cancer. Increased compliance to Canadian guidelines was detected in intermediate risk patients.

Radical cystectomy for clinical T4b urothelial carcinoma: An Ontario, single-center experience.

Guidelines surrounding the management of T4b muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) with radical cystectomy (RC) are limited and lack clarity. Our objective was to analyze our single-center experience to provide additional insight into the role of RC. We performed a retrospective data analysis using clinical, radiological, and pathological information for all patients managed by RC for cT4b MIBC at the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (July 2015 to July 2020). Patients that had MIBC as their first diagnosis were termed the de novo group and patients that were initially diagnosed as having non-MIBC were termed the progressive group. Nineteen consecutive patients (16 males and three females), with a median age of 68 years, managed by two urologists over the last five years, met study criteria. Eleven (58%) of the patients had de novo MIBC while eight (42%) presented with progressive disease. All patients had dysuria as a presenting symptom. Only one (5%) patient received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. There were low rates of perioperative transfusion (11%), bowel resections (5%), postoperative transfusions (0%), ileus (32%), urine leak (16%), and wound dehiscence (5%). Fourteen patients (74%) had positive lymph nodes. All patients had adjuvant chemotherapy. The one-year recurrence rate in these patients was 53%, with 32% of recurrence being distant metastasis. The one-year survival rate was 95%. Patients in the de novo and progressive arms of our cohort had similar rates of surgical complications and disease recurrence. We found operative morbidity and disease control to be reasonable, suggesting RC can be considered more often in the management of T4b MIBC patients.

Wolf Piranha vs Storz Prostate Morcellation Devices: A Retrospective Multi-Institutional Study.

Purpose: Holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) entails both enucleation and morcellation. Only three popular prostate morcellation devices are available for this procedure. In this study, a retrospective review was done to compare the Wolf® and Storz® morcellators. Materials and Methods: After Institutional Review Board approval, a multi-institutional retrospective chart review of prospectively collected data was performed at two institutions with a single surgeon at each center performing HoLEP. Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Center employed the Storz morcellator while Baylor Scott and White Medical Center used the Wolf. Preoperative, perioperative, postoperative, and demographic data for both sets of patients were analyzed and compared retrospectively. Results: A total of 506 patients in the Wolf cohort and 60 patients in the Storz cohort were analyzed. Morcellated pathologic weight was 52.3 g in the Wolf arm and 101.7 g on the Storz arm (p < 0.0001). Overall, average morcellation rates were faster in the Storz arm; morcellation rate was 5.8 g/min for Wolf, and 6.7 g/min in the Storz (p = 0.0015). Morcellator malfunction was significantly lower in Wolf cohort 0% vs 6.6% in the Storz (p = 0.0001), but this did not significantly slow morcellator efficiency times. The total number of mucosal bladder injuries was comparable with rates of 1.4% and 1.6% in the Wolf and Storz groups, respectively (p = 0.59). The duration of hospital stay and catheterization were <24 hours in both groups. Conclusions: In this retrospective study, the Storz DrillCut had higher efficacy in morcellation when compared with Wolf Piranha. However, it was associated with more malfunctions. Both morcellators have comparable rates of complications and perioperative outcomes.

P034: Computed tomography rates for emergency department super-users

Introduction: Most emergency departments (ED) in Canada have a population of high frequency users that present to the ED on a regular basis. These patients are well described in the literature and typically defined by a frequency of 8-10 visits/year. In Thunder Bay, Ontario we have a significant population of patients that present more often that we have termed “super-users”. These patients often are typically from a vulnerable population with multiple co-morbidities and a high mortality rate. Although their risk for poor health outcomes is well recognized, both the chronicity and complexity of their symptoms often contributes to diagnostic dilemmas. The decision to order a computed tomography (CT) scan can be a difficult balance between ruling out life threatening diagnoses and exposing the patient to excessive radiation. Our objective was to describe how often these super-users of the ED received a CT scan and what types of imaging were completed. Methods: The Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre is a geographically isolated hospital in Northwestern Ontario with the next closest hospital based CT scanner greater than 300 km away. Based on previous literature and our preliminary scoping of the super-user group, we have identified a minimum of 25 visits as the threshold. A retrospective chart review was conducted for the year 2017 using our electronic medical record. Patient demographic data was collected along with the type and number of CT scans into a standardized collection tool. Results: Our preliminary results showed that our total population of super-users was 75 patients with an average of 32 visits to the ED per year. A total of 76% of the patients had a CT scan completed at least once. On average these patients have a CT during 10% of their visits with head CT comprising 50% of the imaging and abdominal/pelvis imaging comprising another 45%. For 20% of these super-users, they had CTs on 20% of their visits. From this population, only 10% of the patients had surgery in 2017 while 7% of visits required admission to hospital. The most common diagnoses for these patient visits relate to mental health/addictions, gastrointestinal complaints and infection. Conclusion: This study has shown that a significant number of our super-user population are receiving multiple CTs. Our next step is collect data on individual radiation doses and calculate exposure risks. We hope to inform policy and decision-makers who are developing programs to treat the underlying cause of their high resource use.

P052: Who are the super-users of the emergency department?

Introduction: All emergency departments (EDs) across Canada can identify a group of high frequency users, which are typically defined in the literature as eight to ten visits per year. Although frequent users of the ED are well-studied in the literature, there is little published in terms of identifying the “super-user” group who present to the ED much more often than 10 visits per year. Faced with multiple co-morbidities and a high mortality rate, the ED is often the most appropriate environment to manage this population. In order to inform future initiatives to improve health outcomes, we aimed to identify the specific characteristics of this super-user group. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted using the electronic medical record from the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre to identify patients who had at least 25 visits in the year 2017. A total of 75 patients presented to the ED greater than 25 times in 2017. The following data was then collected on each individual patient: demographic characteristics including age, gender, address, access to a primary care provider. In addition, we collected date, time, diagnoses at each visit, admission rate and surgical interventions. Results: Our preliminary results reveal this population presents to the ED on average 32 times per year. The population is 53% male. Most have a private address and half have a primary care provider for all 2017 with one quarter having a primary care provider for part of the year. The percentage of visits for infections was 30%, mental health and addictions presentations comprised 28% of the visits, with gastrointestinal and cardiac visits comprising a total 22% of the visits. Approximately 7% of visits required admission to hospital, and the average length of stay was 5 days. Conclusion: Super-users of the ED are a unique population that are typically well connected with primary care and have a very low admission and surgical rate. The most common reasons for visit are infections and mental health and addictions. The next steps include collecting mortality data. This data should be used to inform ED and community initiatives aimed at improved health outcomes for this population.

Clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients presenting to a tertiary care center emergency department with invasive group A streptococcal infections.

The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and laboratory characteristics of invasive group A streptococcal infections in a geographic area that sees a high volume of cases. We conducted a health records review of consecutive patients presenting to the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre Emergency Department (ED) in 2016-2017 with a diagnosis of invasive group A streptococcal infection using ICD-10 codes. Patient demographics, host characteristics, triage vital signs, laboratory values, culture sites, and disposition were described using univariate and bivariate statistics. Forty-four adult cases were identified over 2 years, with a median age of 44 years (interquartile range, 35-52). The most prevalent risk factors were diabetes mellitus (45%), current or previous alcohol abuse (39%), and current or previous intravenous drug use (34%). The two most abnormal triage vitals signs were a heart rate ≥ 100 beats per minute in 32 (73%) cases and a respiratory rate ≥ 20 breaths per minute in 27 (63%) cases. The temperature was ≥ 38°C in only 14 (32%) of cases. The C-reactive protein (CRP) was always elevated when measured, and greater than 150 mg/L in 20 (71%) of cases. One-third of patients had an ED visit in the preceding 7 days before the diagnosis of invasive group A Streptococcus. Invasive group A streptococcal infections often present insidiously in adult patients with mild tachycardia and tachypnea at triage. The CRP was the most consistently abnormal laboratory investigation.

P033: Clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients presenting to a tertiary care centre emergency department with invasive Group A Streptococcus infections

Introduction: According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, the rate of invasive Group A Streptococcus (iGAS) has more than doubled since it first became a notifiable disease in 2000. Our objectives were to describe the clinical and laboratory characteristics of iGAS in a geographic area that sees a relatively high volume of cases annually. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of all adult and pediatric patients presenting to the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre Emergency Department from January 2016 to December 2017 with a hospital discharge diagnosis of iGAS infection using ICD-10 codes. Patient demographics, host characteristics, triage vital signs, laboratory values, culture sites, and disposition were analyzed using univariate and bivariate statistics. Results: Forty-five cases of iGAS were identified over 2 years, with a mean age of 45 years (SD 18). The most prevalent associations were male sex (69%), diabetes mellitus (44%), current or previous alcohol abuse (38%), and current or previous intravenous drug use (33%). Prevalence of iGAS was roughly two times the national average in 2016 (11.5 per 100,000) and four times the national average in 2017 (25.5 per 100,000). Mean triage vital signs included a systolic blood pressure of 126 mmHg (SD 24), diastolic blood pressure of 73 mmHg (SD 16), temperature of 37.3°C (SD 1.4), oxygen saturation of 97% (SD 2), heart rate of 113 beats per minute (SD 22), and respiratory rate of 22 breaths per minute (SD 7). Mean laboratory values revealed a white blood cell count of 17,500 cells/μL (SD 9,800) and C-reactive protein of 243 mg/L (SD 144). A higher Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score was positively correlated with longer hospital length of stay (r = 0.46, p &amp;lt; 0.01). Conclusion: Despite its morbidity and mortality, iGAS infections often present insidiously with only mild abnormalities in triage vital signs, and require a high index of suspicion by the emergency physician for a prompt diagnosis, particularly in at-risk populations such as patients with diabetes mellitus or those who misuse alcohol or drugs.

Disparities in health outcomes among seniors without a family physician in the North West Local Health Integration Network: a retrospective cohort study.

The relationship between having a family physician and in-hospital and postdischarge health outcomes among older adults is unclear. We ascertained the proportion of seniors who did not have a family physician and were admitted to an Ontario tertiary care centre, and we determined the association between having/not having a family physician and in-hospital mortality, 1-year mortality and readmission after live discharge. This was a retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling seniors who were admitted to a medical service at Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre. We conducted regression analyses adjusted for demographic factors, prior health care utilization, and factors associated with the index admission to determine the association between family physician status and the study outcomes. Among the 12 033 seniors admitted to hospital between Apr. 1, 2004, and Mar. 31, 2013, 40.7% lacked a family physician. Among those without a family physician, 8.0% (390/4899) died during the index admission and 15.8% (714/4509) died in the subsequent year. Adjusted regression models showed that not having a family physician was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-1.83). Regression models of all-cause 1-year mortality and readmission also suggested that lack of a family physician was associated with detrimental health outcomes (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.26; subdistribution hazard ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.10-1.24, respectively). Elders without family physicians were disadvantaged during their hospital admission as well as in the subsequent year. Additional interventions aimed at increasing the proportion of seniors admitted to hospital who are connected with a family physician are warranted.

Epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in indigenous and non-indigenous adults in northwestern Ontario, Canada, 2006\u20132015

BackgroundDespite the use of pneumococcal vaccines, indigenous populations are consistently disproportionately affected by invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). With recent changes in Ontario’s provincial pneumococcal vaccination program, we sought to evaluate the epidemiology and burden of IPD in northwestern Ontario (NWO) Canada – a region that contains a substantial (19.2%) indigenous population.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed all adult cases of IPD that were reported to the Thunder Bay District Health Unit, in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, over a 10-year period (2006–2015). Patients admitted to the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre with IPD had their charts reviewed to abstract clinical data. Statistical analysis, including incidence rates of IPD, was performed.ResultsTwo hundred sixty-two cases of IPD occurred over the 10-year observation period and clinical data was available for 182 cases. Fifty-three of 182 (29.1%) patients were indigenous. 73 of 182 (40.1%) of patients were immunocompromised. Indigenous patients with IPD were more likely to be immunocompromised than non-indigenous patients (p < 0.001). Serotype data was available for 159 cases of IPD; PCV7, PCV13, and PPV23 covered 5.7%, 28.3%, and 79.2% of isolates, respectively, while 29 (20.8%) were non-vaccine serotypes. The annual incidence rate of IPD ranged from 8.9 to 25.9 per 100,000 among adults 18–64 years old; among adults 65 years of age and older the annual incidence of IPD ranged from 18.5 to 60.7 per 100,000.ConclusionAmong adults in NWO, Canada, there is a high incidence of IPD. Immunocompromised indigenous adults in NWO may benefit from pneumococcal vaccination coverage. Emerging non-vaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae warrant the consideration of the provincial pneumococcal vaccination program.

The Benefits of Using a Small Caliber Ureteroscope in Evaluation and Management of Urethral Stricture.

Introduction and Objective The proper evaluation of urethral strictures is an essential part of the surgical planning in urethral reconstruction. The proper evaluation of the stricture can be challenging in certain situations, especially when the meatus is involved. We propose that the use of a small caliber ureteroscope (4.5 Fr and 6.5 Fr) can offer additional help and use for the surgical planning in urethroplasty. Methods We prospectively collected data on 76 patients who underwent urethroplasties in Kulkarni Reconstructive Urology Center, Pune, India and Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Center, Thunder Bay, Canada. Patients had retrograde and micturition urethrograms performed preoperatively. The stricture was assessed visually using a 6.5 Fr ureteroscope. If the stricture was smaller than 6.5 Fr, we attempted using the 4.5 Fr ureteroscope. In nonobliterated strictures, we attempted bypassing the stricture making sure not to dilate the stricture. A glide wire would be passed to the bladder under vision. Stricture length, tissue quality, presence of other proximal strictures, false passages, and bladder tumors or stones would be assessed visually. If the penile stricture was near obliterative (smaller than 4.5 Fr caliber), a two-staged procedure is elected to be performed. For proximal bulbar strictures, if the urethral caliber is less than 4.5 Fr and the stricture length is less than 1 cm, we perform a nontransecting anastomotic urethroplasty (NTAU). If the stricture length is >1 cm, we perform a double-face augmented urethroplasty (DFAU). If the urethral caliber is >4.5 Fr and particularly those who are sexually active, ventral inlay with buccal mucosal grafts (BMGs) is performed. In mid to distal bulbar strictures, if the urethral caliber is >4.5 Fr, our procedure of choice is dorsal onlay with BMG. For those with urethral caliber <4.5 Fr and a stricture less than 1 cm, we perform a NTAU. For strictures longer than 1 cm, we perform a DFAU. With the exception of trauma, we very rarely transect the urethra. For panurethral strictures, we almost exclusively perform Kulkarni one-sided dissection. Results Urethroscopy was performed in 76 patients who presented for urethroplasty from July 2014 to September 2014 (in Pune) and between April 2016 and September 2017 (in Thunder Bay). Bypassing the stricture was achieved in 68 patients (89%) while it was unsuccessful in 8 patients (11%). In all unsuccessful urethroscopies, the stricture was near obliterative <4.5 Fr. Our surgical planning changed in (13) 17% of the cases. Out of 43 bulbar strictures, the decision was changed in (9) 21% where we performed 4 DFAU, 3 AAU (augmented anastomotic urethroplasty), and 2 EAU (end anastomotic urethroplasty). In 13 penile strictures, we opted for staged urethroplasty including 3 Johansons and 1 first-stage Asopa in 30.7%. In 20 panurethral urethroplasties, 1 patient (5%) had a urethral stone found in a proximal portion of the bulbar urethra distal to a stricture ring that was removed using an endoscopic grasper. Conclusion The use of the small caliber ureteroscope can help in evaluation of the stricture caliber, length, and tissue quality. The scope can also aid in placing a guide wire, evaluating the posterior urethra, and screening for urethral or bladder stones. It can also improve the preoperative patient counselling and avoid unwanted surprises.

P112: Predicting patient admission from the emergency department using triage administrative data

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) over-crowding and increased wait times are a growing problem. Many interventions have been proposed to decrease patient length of stay and increase patient flow. Early disposition planning is one method to accomplish this goal. In this study we developed statistical models to predict patient admission based on ED administrative data. The objective of this study was to predict patient admission early in the visit with goal of preparation of the acute care bed and other resources. Methods: Retrospective administrative ED data from the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre was obtained for the period May 2014 to April 2015. Data were divided into training and testing groups with 80% of data used to train the statistical models. Logistic regression models were developed using administrative variables (i.e., age, sex, mode of arrival, and triage level). Model accuracy was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve measures. To predict hourly bed requirements, the probability of admission was summed to calculate a pooled bed requirement estimate. The estimated hourly bed requirement was then compared to the historical hourly demand. Results: The logistic regression models had a sensitivity of 23%, specificity of 97%, and an area under the curve of 0.78. Although, admission prediction for a particular individual was satisfactory, the hourly pooled probabilities showed better results. The predicted hourly bed requirements were close to historical demand for beds when compared. Conclusion: I have shown that the number of acute care beds required on an hourly basis can be predicted using triage administrative data. Early admission bed planning would allow resources to be managed more effectively. In addition, during periods of hospital over capacity, managers would be able to prioritize transfers and discharges based on early estimates of ED demand for beds.

The Changing Epidemiology of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Among the Indigenous and Non-indigenous Population of Northwestern Ontario, Canada, from 2006 Through 2015 and Emergence of Non-vaccine Serotypes

BackgroundRates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among indigenous populations remain substantially higher than their non-indigenous counterparts. The goal of this study was to analyze the epidemiology and demographic features of IPD in northwestern Ontario (NWO) among the indigenous and non-indigenous population in the context of recent changes in the provincial pneumococcal vaccination programs.MethodsTwo databases were used to identify cases of IPD in NWO: Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre and the Thunder Bay District Health Unit. Adult patients with a diagnosis of IPD at the TBRHSC from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 had their medical charts retrospectively reviewed; TBDHU data contained only serotype, age, and gender data.ResultsTable 1.Number of IPD cases and case fatality rate by indigenous status at the TBRHSC, 2006–2015# of cases# of deathsyearindigenousnon-indigenoustotalindigenousnon-indigenoustotal2006371000020070880112008511160112009820282022010517220222011622281122012381101120131012221342014101121000201531316022total531291824111553 of 182 (29.0%) of patients were indigenous. 35 of 53 (66.0%) of indigenous patients were immunocompromised, whereas 38 of 129 (29.5%) of non-indigenous patients were immunocompromised and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.001, by chi square test). 35 of 73 (48.0%) of immunocompromised patients were indigenous.Table 2.Serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing IPD in northwestern Ontario, Canada, 2006–2015 (includes both TBRHSC + TBDHU data).yearPCV7PCV13PCV23non-vaccine serotypesunknown serotypestotal200600002626200710211216200822541427200931293164320100784123120112101249372012021184252013032128342014129382320151076923total10388435118285The proportion of non-vaccine serotypes has increased, on average, by 16% per year (P = 0.024, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.32).ConclusionHigh rates of IPD were found to occur among immunocompromised indigenous adults in NWO. Our findings identify a vulnerable cohort of the population that would benefit from pneumococcal vaccination coverage. The proportion of non-vaccine serotypes causing IPD has increased during the 10-year observation period.Disclosures M. Ulanova, Pfizer: Grant Investigator, Grant recipient

P116: An analysis of pediatric visits to a tertiary care centre in Northern Ontario, Canada

Introduction: The Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (TBRHSC) Emergency Department (ED) has experienced an all patient increase in visits ranging from 1.5 to 6% per year since 2004. As a regional referral centre with no dedicated pediatric ED, TBRHSC is the sole emergency provider. Given the rising visits, we have investigated the pattern of pediatric visits, rates of admission to hospital and for a subset of years the investigations completed. Methods: Pediatric visits from 2004 to 2014 were summarized for the TBRHSC ED. The pattern of visits was examined along with the rate of admission to hospital. We also investigated the trend in acuity over the study period. Laboratory and imaging data are purged 1 year after each visit and were not available prior to 2011 but were summarized for the remainder of the years to identify the rates of all investigations completed. Results: From 2004 to 2014 there was a total increase in visits of 7.5% with the average annual admission rate ranging from 5 to 6.3%. The month to month variability in visits over the study period was high with a minimum of 1292 in August 2004 and a maximum of 2488 in October 2009. Nearly all patients were either CTAS II, III or IV, with level III having the highest occurrence. The mean investigation rate was approximately 16, 0.8, 24, and 2.3% of patients having laboratory, CT, x-ray and ultra-sound completed, respectively. Conclusion: Pediatric patients are an important subset of all patients visiting the ED. They often require special resources and at the TBRHSC use specific treatment spaces. In addition, there is a limited number of pediatric inpatient hospital beds. Managers could use the timing of visits, number of visits and admission rates to examine resource use and the probability of exceeding capacity. This study also provides baseline information on the rates of investigations, especially imaging such as CT which can have long-term radiological consequences.

Trends in weighted vital signs and the clinical course of 44,531 acutely ill medical patients while in hospital

Background: little is known about the changes and trends of individual vital signs during the course of acute illness in hospital. Methods: the weighted points of the VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS) were assigned to each vital sign value measured on 44,531 acutely ill medical patients while they were hospitalized in the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre, Ontario, Canada. These ViEWS weighted vital signs were averaged for every 24 hour period for five days after admission and five days before death or discharge and then combined to obtain an approximation of the trajectory of each vital sign while in hospital. Results: compared with the other vital signs, the ViEWS weighted points for respiratory rate increase the most in patients who died in hospital and decrease the most in survivors. Combining respiratory rate with the weighted points for any of the other vital signs reduced rather than increased their monitoring performance. Conclusion: trends in respiratory rate, measured by observation at the bedside and given a ViEWS weighting is the best predictor of clinical outcome; minor changes predicted clinical outcome several days in advance.

In-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients admitted to a resource poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa and to a Canadian Regional Hospital compared using the abbreviated VitalPAC™ Early Warning Score

Backgroundthe development of validated early warning scores that only require the measurement of vital signs at the bedside has provided for the first time a practical and affordable method of comparing the outcomes of similar patients admitted to hospital in the developed and developing world. Methodswe compared the outcomes of patients with the same abbreviated version of the VitalPAC™ early warning score at the time of hospital admission in a Canadian and Ugandan hospital. 844 acutely ill medical patients admitted to Kitovu Hospital, Masaka, Uganda and 48,696 patients admitted to the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (TBRHSC), Ontario, Canada were examined. Resultsapart from those patients with an abbreviated ViEWS value of 10 there was no statistically significant difference in the in-hospital mortality of Kitvou and TBRHSC patients with the same score on admission. Using arbitrary ranges of the abbreviated ViEWS the 30day Kaplan–Meier survival curves of Kitovu patients were either the same or better than those of TBRHSC patients. Conclusionthe in-hospital mortality of patients with the same abbreviated ViEWS on hospital admission is similar in TBRHSC and Kitovu Hospital.