Definition Of Threshold Research Articles

Estimating quantitative gear and taxa specific encounter thresholds for commercial fisheries bycatch of vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa

Corals and sponges are often a component of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) in the deep sea. These taxa can be impacted and removed by bottom contacting fishing gear and protecting VMEs is an important component of managing ecosystems. One of the tools that is routinely used to manage VME impacts from fishing gear is move-on rules triggered by bycatch thresholds (encounter thresholds) of VME. Usually, these bycatch thresholds are set with little information regarding the level of impact on the benthic habitat. The objective of this analysis was to develop and apply methods for quantifying threshold catches of VME indicator taxa by gear type and VME indicator taxa grouping. Three previously used methods based on cumulative bycatch distributions and one novel method based on percentile regression of fishery bycatch and density from underwater camera surveys were applied to data from the northeast Pacific Ocean to determine data-based encounter thresholds that could trigger spatial fishery closures. The percentile regression method suggested encounter thresholds of ∼40 - 65 kg of Antipatharia, < 20 kg of gorgonians and 78 - 131 kg of Porifera would equate to a density of 0.2 VME indicator taxa per for bottom trawl bycatch. Threshold values were lower for longline and pot gear (generally < 10 kg per set). Using the percentile regression method allowed for the definition of VME encounter thresholds to be expressed in terms of density of the taxa of interest, an improvement over examination of break points in the cumulative bycatch data alone. This improvement allows the ecological importance (e.g. density of VME) to be defined and used to estimate encounter thresholds, rather than assuming that the natural break points in cumulative bycatch represent an ecological break point.

‘We were persistently othering them out’: Reconceptualising ‘safeguarding’ for young people experiencing extra-familial risks and harms during transition to adulthood

Background: The transition to adulthood may involve experiences of risk and harm – including, for some young people, abuse, violence or exploitation in peer and community contexts. In the UK, such extra-familial risks and harms have prompted safeguarding responses in policy and practice. However, safeguarding conceptualisations are significantly different for young people under 18 than for those over 18, leading to service and system gaps in transition. The concept of Transitional Safeguarding seeks to address this, advocating for more integrated approaches that centre the needs, voices and lived experiences of young people. Objectives: Based on findings from a study on early-stage innovation developments aligned with Transitional Safeguarding, this paper considers issues and dilemmas linked to reconceptualising ‘safeguarding’ so as to better protect young people experiencing extra-familial risks and harms during transition to adulthood. Methods: A 4-year study followed safeguarding innovation developments in selected local areas in England, based on a qualitative case study approach that involved ethnography, interviews and documentary analysis. Findings: The paper highlights gaps in safeguarding services and systems for young people around age 18, when support may either significantly decrease or stop altogether. The intersecting dynamics of risks, harms and unmet needs point to the importance of multi-agency collaboration, beyond service-centric threshold definitions. The need to systemically and systematically involve young people in support and innovation development is also emphasised. Conclusions: The boundary-spanning change which the Transitional Safeguarding approach advocates requires significant shifts to create conditions capable of addressing risks and harms during transition to adulthood, as well as their structural drivers. Navigating these shifts remains a key challenge for local services and systems engaged in Transitional Safeguarding innovation, and their efforts need to be supported by policy frameworks and adequate funding.

Liquid biopsy-based technologies: a promising tool for biomarker identification in her2-low breast cancer patients for improved therapeutic outcomes

The molecular classification of breast cancer plays a pivotal role in developing personalized treatment strategies, with the aim of improving therapeutic outcomes. Despite significant advancements, current diagnostic workflows are hindered by several challenges, including pre-analytical variability, interpretive ambiguity, and inconsistencies in threshold definitions, particularly in cases involving human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-low breast cancer. In this context, liquid biopsy technologies have emerged as promising tools for refining breast cancer diagnostics. Techniques such as circulating tumor DNA and circulating tumor cell analysis provide a non-invasive approach to assessing tumor-associated biomarkers. These methodologies are particularly advantageous for analyzing low-abundance materials, such as formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples and liquid biopsies, thus enhancing the precision of molecular classification and informing more targeted therapeutic decisions for breast cancer patients. This review aims to explore the potential of liquid biopsy in addressing the limitations of current diagnostic practices, with a specific focus on its application in HER2-low breast cancer. Furthermore, it advocates for a transition toward high-throughput RNA-based screening and quantification, which may address critical unmet clinical needs.

Determining a Meaningful R-squared Value in Clinical Medicine

Introduction In clinical medicine, determining a meaningful R2 value requires careful consideration of various factors. The R-squared (R2) value is a statistical measure used to assess the extent to which independent variables explain the dependent variable in regression models. Its interpretation in clinical medicine is very context-dependent and lacks a definitive threshold. While a higher R2 suggests a stronger relationship between variables, smaller R-squared values will still hold relevance, especially for multifactorial clinical outcomes. Due to clinical medicine’s genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors, high R2 values may not be realistic or expected in this context. Methods This study is a narrative review encompassing expert opinions, results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and observational studies relating to the use and interpretation of the coefficient of variance (R2) in clinical medicine. Results 30 studies spanning literature across various disciplines within clinical medicine were evaluated and synthesized to provide a contextualized, nuanced approach to interpreting the R2 in medical literature. Conclusions A nuanced understanding of the significance of R2 values in clinical medicine requires considering the research question, clinical context, complexity of the phenomenon, and contextual comparisons. Integrating statistical rigor and clinical judgment helps derive meaningful insights from clinical data. This paper highlights key considerations for evaluating a “good” R2 value in clinical medicine and concludes that an R2 of &gt;15% is a generally a meaningful value in clinical research.

Single Fraction Radiosurgical Tolerance of Brainstem, Trigeminal Nerve, and Meckel's Cave for Facial Numbness

IntroductionThe purpose of this article is to review toxicity outcomes for a series of patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for trigeminal neuralgia, focusing on dose to the brainstem, trigeminal nerve, and Meckel's cave as possible explanatory variables for the development of the most common post-treatment neuropathy, facial numbness. MaterialsA retrospective review of 136 cases treated with Cyberknife radiosurgery for trigeminal neuralgia was performed. Dose was initially (cohort 1) prescribed to 57 to 64 Gy covering a 6mm cylindrical shaped target volume at least 2mm from the dorsal root entry zone (DREZ). Subsequently a deliberate change to isocentric treatment planning occurred, resulting in delivery of 85 Gy to a spherical target (cohort 2). Brainstem, trigeminal nerve, and Meckel's cave were contoured and a variety of dosimetric and clinical factors were analyzed for association with development of treatment related facial numbness. ResultsTreatment-related numbness occurred in 59/136 (43%) patients and did not differ between the treatment cohorts. Fifty-two patients experienced BNI grade II toxicity, and 7 patients experienced BNI grade III toxicity. Time to numbness was 16.0 months for cohort 1 and 10.4 months for cohort 2 (p=0.184). The median brainstem maximum dose was 26.1 Gy, ranging from 4.2 Gy to 57.3 Gy. Maximum dose to the trigeminal nerve was 85 Gy. Mean trigeminal nerve dose was 47.3 Gy. The median Meckel's cave maximum and mean doses were 26.0 Gy and 6.8 Gy, respectively. No definitive upper limit dose threshold was detected for the structures analyzed, but trends were noted for maximum trigeminal nerve dose of 85 Gy (p=0.083) and for prescription dose (p=0.057) and trigeminal nerve V40 (p=0.077) in the Type I subset. ConclusionsBrainstem, trigeminal nerve, and Meckel's cave tolerated doses within the range delivered. Discussion of the literature is provided to guide treatment planning and management.

A theoretical framework for linking hospitals longitudinally: demonstrated using German Hospital Quality Reports 2016–2020

BackgroundIn longitudinal health services research, hospital identification using an ID code, often supplemented with several additional variables, lacks clarity regarding representativeness and variable influence. This study presents an operational method for hospital identity delimitation and a novel longitudinal identification approach, demonstrated using a case study.MethodsThe conceptualisation considers hospitals as evolving entities, identifying “similar enough” pairs across two time points using an automated similarity matrix. This method comprises key variable selection, similarity scoring, and tolerance threshold definition, tailored to data source characteristics and clinical relevance. This linking method is tested by applying the identification of minimum caseload requirements-related German hospitals, utilizing German Hospital Quality Reports (GHQR) 2016–2020.ResultsThe method achieved a success rate (min: 97.9% - max: 100%, mean: 99.9%) surpassing traditional hospital ID-code linkage (min: 91.5% - max: 98.8%, mean: 96.6%), with a remarkable 99% reduction in manual work through automation.ConclusionsThis method, rooted in a comprehensive understanding of hospital identities, offers an operational, automated, and customisable process serving diverse clinical topics. This approach has the advantage of simultaneously considering multiple variables and systematically observing temporal changes in hospitals. It also enhances the precision and efficiency of longitudinal hospital identification in health services research.

Abstract P117: Provider Concordance to the Current 2017 High Blood Pressure (BP) Clinical Practice Guidelines and Patient Blood Pressure Control

Introduction: The AHA/ACC 2017 High BP guidelines introduced key changes, compared to previous guidelines, including a new hypertension definition (≥130/80 mm Hg) and lower medication thresholds for patients at cardiovascular risk. The impact of provider adherence to these guidelines on patient BP control has not been fully explored. Methods: We identified 3,749 new stage 1 hypertension patients (7,214 visits) and 11,013 new stage 2 hypertension patients (33,321 visits), aged ≥18, from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center database. We scrutinized outpatient BP levels, prescribed medications, follow-up visits, lab results, demographics, comorbid conditions, and physician notes from January 2018 to December 2022. This data was compared to hypertension treatment criteria developed from the 2017 guidelines that was validated by six hypertension experts. Active primary care patients (with 1 visit per year) were included. Mixed-effects Poisson regression and mixed-effects linear regression examined the relationship between guideline adherence and controlled BP (&lt;130/80 mm Hg) and continuous BP, respectively. Results: Among stage 1 hypertension visits, 12.2% were treated with at least one antihypertensive drug according to guidelines, resulting in a 13% increase in BP control and a reduction in systolic BP by 2.02 mm Hg. For stage 2 hypertension visits, 26% received treatment with at least two first-line antihypertensive drug classes, leading to a 45% increase in BP control and reductions in systolic and diastolic BP by 3.79 mm Hg and 1.93 mm Hg, respectively. No significant difference in BP control was observed among stage 2 patients treated with two versus one first-line drug. Adherence to follow-up guidelines resulted in a 24% improvement in BP control for stage 1 patients and stage 2 patients when their follow-up visit occurred within 1 month. Subsequent follow-up visits within 1-month improved BP control by 34% if BP was not controlled previously. Additionally, 42.4% of patients with uncontrolled BP for 1 month received an increase in medication dose or a change/addition of medication class and showed a 7% increase in BP control within next month. Conclusion: Provider adherence to recommended antihypertensive drug treatment guidelines (12%-26%), follow-up assessments guidelines (29%-37%), and treatment intensification (42.4%) were poor. However, patients treated according to the guidelines showed significant improved BP control.

Rufibacter psychrotolerans sp. nov., a Cold-Tolerating Novel Species Isolated from Desert Soil.

Strain SYSU D00308T, a short-rod-shaped bacterium, was isolated from a sandy soil collected from the Gurbantunggut Desert, Xinjiang, PR China. Strain SYSU D00308T was Gram-stain-negative, aerobic, pink-pigmented, non-motile, catalase- and oxidase-positive. The strain grew at 4-37 ℃, pH 5.0-8.0 and 0-1.5% (w/v) NaCl. 16S rRNA gene sequencing analyses demonstrated that strain SYSU D00308T belonged to the genus Rufibacter and exhibited the highest sequence similarity (97.4%) to Rufibacter glacialis MDT1-10-3T. Summed features 3, 4, and iso-C15:0 were the major fatty acids, and menaquinone 7 (MK-7) was the sole respiratory menaquinone. The polar lipid profiles comprised phosphatidylethanolamine, an unidentified glycolipid, an unidentified phospholipid, two unidentified aminophospholipids, and two unidentified lipids. The genome size and DNA G + C content of strain SYSU D00308T were 5,176,683 bp and 54.8%, respectively. The average nucleotide identity (ANI) and digital DNA-DNA hybridization (dDDH) values between SYSU D00308T and members of the genus Rufibacter were 77.7-81.8% and 20.4-23.4% respectively, which were less than the corresponding thresholds (ANI: 95-96%; dDDH: 70%) for prokaryotic species definition. According to the genotypic, phenotypic and phylogenetic characteristics, strain SYSU D00308T represents a novel species of the genus Rufibacter. We propose the name, Rufibacter psychrotolerans sp. nov., with SYSU D00308T (= CGMCC 1.18621T = KCTC 82275T = MCCC 1K04970T) as the type strain.

Proposals for revised International Working Group–European LeukemiaNet criteria for anemia response in myelofibrosis

AbstractWith emerging new drugs in myelofibrosis (MF), a robust and harmonized framework for defining the severity of anemia and response to treatment will enhance clinical investigation and facilitate interstudy comparisons. Accordingly, the lead authors on the 2013 edition of the International Working Group–European LeukemiaNet (IWG-ELN) response criteria in MF were summoned to revise their document with the intent to (1) account for gender-specific differences in determining hemoglobin levels for eligibility criteria; (2) revise the definition of transfusion-dependent anemia (TDA) based on current restrictive transfusion practices; and (3) provide a structurally simple and easy to apply response criteria that are sensitive enough to detect efficacy signals (minor response) and also account for major responses. The initial draft of the 2024 IWG-ELN proposed criteria was subsequently circulated around a wider group of international experts and their feedback incorporated. The proposed articles include new definitions for TDA (≥3 units in the 12 weeks before study enrollment) and hemoglobin thresholds for eligibility criteria (<10 g/dL for women and <11 g/dL for men). The revised document also provides separate (TDA vs non-TDA) and graded (major vs minor response) response criteria while preserving the requirement for a 12-week period of screening and observation on treatment.

A Gate-Level Power Estimation Approach with a Comprehensive Definition of Thresholds for Classification and Filtering of Inertial Glitch Pulses

Estimation of power consumption in digital circuits is performed at gate-level simulation. Its accuracy depends on the models of gate delays that capture the effects of spurious signal transitions, called “glitches”. Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software considers inertial gate delays and represses a glitch in the cell’s output if its width is below a threshold. Selecting threshold values for the inertial glitch classification and filtering is crucial for precise power estimations. In this direction, we explore the effectiveness of automatically adjusting such thresholds on a cell-specific basis according to the local cell’s information. We used a commercial industry-standard gate-level power estimation tool and a 32 nm CMOS standard cell library. Via power measurements in circuit simulations, we created customized lookup tables for each library cell employed in the benchmark circuits. We compared the proposed approach’s performance with other methods for glitch threshold definition. Our method demonstrated good power estimation accuracy while presenting the lowest mean absolute error among all the cells of the circuits under test and the smallest standard deviation. The latter suggests that the proposed method achieves better cell-specific accuracy, which is expected to allow for more precise circuit-level power estimations in complex circuits with a large number of combinational cells.

A functional renormalization group for signal detection and stochastic ergodicity breaking

Signal detection is one of the main challenges in data science. As often happens in data analysis, the signal in the data may be corrupted by noise. There is a wide range of techniques that aim to extract the relevant degrees of freedom from data. However, some problems remain difficult. This is notably the case for signal detection in almost continuous spectra when the signal-to-noise ratio is small enough. This paper follows a recent bibliographic line, which tackles this issue with field-theoretical methods. Previous analysis focused on equilibrium Boltzmann distributions for an effective field representing the degrees of freedom of data. It was possible to establish a relation between signal detection and Z2 -symmetry breaking. In this paper, we consider a stochastic field framework inspired by the so-called ‘model A’, and show that the ability to reach, or not reach, an equilibrium state is correlated with the shape of the dataset. In particular, by studying the renormalization group of the model, we show that the weak ergodicity prescription is always broken for signals that are small enough, when the data distribution is close to the Marchenko–Pastur law. This, in particular, enables the definition of a detection threshold in the regime where the signal-to-noise ratio is small enough.

High-temperature behaviour of fluorcarletonite, KNa4Ca4Si8O18(CO3)4(F,OH)⋅H2O, from the Murun Alkaline Complex, Russia, appraised by experimental and theoretical methods

AbstractThe thermal behaviour of fluorcarletonite, KNa4Ca4Si8O18(CO3)4(F,OH)⋅H2O, from the charoitites of the Severny district at the Malyy Murun massif, Murun complex, NW Aldan Shield, Siberia, Russia, has been investigated in order to understand the temperature-induced changes in the crystal structure of this rare silicate. The study has been carried out combining in situ high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction (T range 25–550°C), ex situ high-temperature Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (25–700°C) and ab initio calculations. An increasing trend of lattice parameters and cell volume was observed in the 150–550°C temperature range, when the mineral underwent a progressive dehydration process. At 550°C ~40% water loss was detected. If compared with the fluorcarletonite structure at room temperature, the partially dehydrated fluorcarletonite shows: the same space group (P4/mbm); increased distances between the oxygens of the H2O molecules (O11w and O12w) and their Na-centred octahedral cations (Na1 and Na2, respectively); distortion of the four- and six-member tetrahedral rings of the double silicate layer. The dehydration process mainly involves the oxygen at the O11w site which has a different local environment with respect to the oxygen at the O12w site. At T &gt; 600°C, the complete dehydration is accompanied by deprotonation of the OH groups substituting for the F atoms and by the collapse of the structure when the CO2 is released. The adopted approach allowed definition of the temperature thresholds at which modifications occur in the fluorcarletonite crystal structure when subjected to controlled heating conditions. Our findings contribute to assessment of stability, reactivity and, more generally, the thermal behaviour of sheet silicates with fluorcarletonite-like topology.

Urine Output and Acute Kidney Injury in Neonates/Younger Children: A Prospective Study of Cardiac Surgery Patients with Indwelling Urinary Catheters.

Pediatric acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, yet a precise definition, especially concerning urine output (UO) thresholds, remains unproven. We evaluate UO thresholds for AKI in neonates and children aged 1-24 months with indwelling urinary catheters undergoing cardiac surgery. A six-year prospective cohort study (2018-2023) after cardiac surgery was conducted at a reference center in Brazil. All patients had indwelling urinary catheters up to 48 hours after surgery and at least two serum creatinine (sCr) measurements, including one before surgery. The main objective of this study was to determine the optimal UO thresholds for AKI definition and staging in neonates and younger children compared with the currently used criteria-neonatal and adult Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) definitions. The outcome was a composite of severe AKI (stage 3 AKI diagnosed by the sCr criterion only), kidney replacement therapy, or hospital mortality. The study included 1,024 patients: 253 in the neonatal group and 772 in the younger children group. In both groups, the lowest UO at 24 hours as a continuous variable had good discriminatory capacity for the composite outcome (AUC-ROC 0.75 [95% CI 0.70-0.81] and 0.74 [95% CI 0.68-0.79]). In neonates, the best thresholds were 3.0, 2.0 and 1.0 mL/kg/hour, and in younger children, the thresholds were 1.8, 1.0 and 0.5 mL/kg/hour. These values were used for modified AKI staging for each age group. In neonates, this modified criterion was associated with the best discriminatory capacity (AUC-ROC 0.74 [0.67-0.80] vs. 0.68 [0.61-0.75], P<0.05) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) in comparison with the neonatal KDIGO criteria. In younger children, the modified criteria had good discriminatory capacity but were comparable to the adult KDIGO criteria, and the NRI was near zero. Using indwelling catheters for UO measurements, our study reinforced that the current KDIGO criteria may require adjustments to better serve the neonate population. Additionally, using the UO criteria, we validated the adult KDIGO criteria in children aged 1-24 months.

SRG/ART-XC Galactic Bulge deep survey. I. Maximum likelihood source detection algorithm for X-ray surveys

ABSTRACT We describe an X-ray source detection method entirely based on the maximum likelihood analysis, in application to observations with the ART-XC telescope onboard the Spectrum Roentgen Gamma observatory. The method optimally combines the data taken at different conditions, a situation commonly found in scanning surveys or mosaic observations with a telescope with a significant off-axis PSF distortion. The method can be naturally extended to include additional information from the X-ray photon energies, detector grades, etc. The likelihood-based source detection naturally results in an optimal use of available information for the sources detection and stable and uniform definition of detection thresholds under different observing conditions (PSF, background level). This greatly simplifies the statistical calibration of the survey needed to, e.g. obtain the $\log N - \log S$ distribution of detected sources or their luminosity function. The method can be applied to the data from any imaging X-ray telescope.

Heterogeneity in the Definitions of Proximal Junctional Kyphosis and Failure in Spinal Deformity Literature: A Tower of Babel.

Systematic review. To describe the various definitions of PJK and PJF used in spinal deformity literature and their utility over time. Proximal junctional kyphosis or failure (PJK/PJF) is among the most common complication after long-segment fusions, but there is no consensus on their definitions. This presents challenges in understanding risk factors, management, and prevention strategies. A systematic literature review was performed on studies specifying a definition of PJK and/or PJF. PJK definitions were categorized as radiographic vs non-radiographic and data was collected on PJK criteria including threshold for proximal junctional angle (PJA), change in PJA, vertebra selection for PJA measurement, and follow-up timepoints. PJF definitions were categorized as structural failure, need for revision, symptomatic failure, and radiographic (angular). 359 studies defining PJK and/or PJF were identified. While 56% of studies used the definition PJA>10° and PJA change from baseline>10°, the remainder expressed significant heterogeneity with respect to criteria for magnitude of PJA and degree of PJA change. The most common vertebrae assessed were UIV/UIV+2 (74%) and most common minimum follow-up (mFU) listed was 2 years (60%). Mean FUs for studies varied considerably even in studies with the same mFU, from 2.1-8.9 years (2-year mFU) and 1.1-4.0 years (1-year mFU). PJF definitions were most commonly structural (58%) or defined as a need for revision (48%), with a much less common use of PJA thresholds (23%). The challenges faced in preventing proximal junctional complications are mired in the heterogenous groundwork by which PJK and PJF are defined. Most definitions of PJK use radiographic thresholds without consideration of clinical relevance and variations in individual alignment. Conversely, definitions of PJF are based on clinical criteria, which are often subjective. Future research should focus on understanding the mechanisms of PJK/PJF, as only then will we be able to accurately define and prevent these complications.

Measuring the amplitudes of the received symbols of the shift keyed radio signals

In high-speed discrete information transmission systems, multi-position signals with various types of phase and amplitude shift keying are widely used. There are multi-level amplitude shift keyed (ASK), amplitude and phase-shift keyed (APSK) and quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) signals. When demodulating the amplitude code of such signals, the amplitude of the received symbol is determined, and its calibrated value is compared with the specified threshold levels. It is proposed to directly calculate the minimum and maximum amplitudes of the symbols at the output of the demodulator, with a subsequent definition of decision thresholds. It is noteworthy that there is no need to calibrate the amplitude characteristics of the reception path. The logarithmic ratio of the amplitudes of the received and previous symbols is further calculated. And if its value falls within the specified boundaries, independent of the signal and noise, then a decision is made about whether the amplitudes of these symbols belong to the maximum or minimum values. These obtained values are averaged after that and used to set thresholds for decision-making in the demodulator. The results of the statistical simulation confirm the high efficiency of the proposed technical solution.

The Onset of Lasing in Semiconductor Nanolasers

AbstractNanolasers based on emerging dielectric cavities with deep sub‐wavelength confinement of light offer a large light‐matter coupling rate and near‐unity spontaneous emission factor, . These features call for reconsidering the standard approach to identifying the lasing threshold. Here, a new threshold definition is suggested, taking into account the recycling process of photons when is large. This threshold reduces to the classical balance between gain and loss in the limit of macroscopic lasers, but qualitative as well as quantitative differences emerge for nanolasers. In particular, this new threshold identifies the onset of a transition regime, where the quantum statistics of the emitted light evolve into the Poissonian statistics of a coherent state. It is shown that the threshold with photon recycling consistently marks the onset of the change in the second‐order intensity correlation, , toward coherent laser light, irrespective of the laser size and down to the case of a single emitter. In contrast, other threshold definitions may well predict lasing in light‐emitting diodes. An overview of different threshold definitions proposed in the literature is provided and their predictions are compared when going from macroscopic to microscopic lasers.

Site‐Specific Multiple Stressor Assessments Based on High Frequency Surface Observations and an Earth System Model

AbstractGlobal Earth system models are often enlisted to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. In this study, we compare high frequency (daily) outputs of potential ecosystem stressors, such as sea surface temperature and surface pH, and associated variables from an Earth system model (GFDL ESM4.1) with high frequency time series from a global network of moorings to directly assess the capacity of the model to resolve local biogeochemical variability on time scales from daily to interannual. Our analysis indicates variability in surface temperature is most consistent between ESM4.1 and observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.93 and bias of 0.40°C, followed by variability in surface salinity. Physical variability is reproduced with greater accuracy than biogeochemical variability, and variability on seasonal and longer time scales is more consistent between the model and observations than higher frequency variability. At the same time, the well‐resolved seasonal and longer timescale variability is a reasonably good predictor, in many cases, of the likelihood of extreme events. Despite limited model representation of high frequency variability, model and observation‐based assessments of the fraction of days experiencing surface T‐pH and T‐Ωarag multistressor conditions show reasonable agreement, depending on the stressor combination and threshold definition. We also identify circumstances in which some errors could be reduced by accounting for model biases.

Instrumental Monitoring of a Slow-Moving Landslide in Piedmont (Northwest Italy) for the Definition of Rainfall Thresholds.

The prediction and prevention of landslide hazard is a challenging topic involving the assessment and quantitative evaluation of several elements: geological and geomorphological setting, rainfalls, and ground motion. This paper presents the multi-approach investigation of the Nevissano landslide (Asti Province, Piedmont, NW Italy). It shows a continuous and slow movement, alongside few paroxysmal events, the last recorded in 2016. The geological and geomorphological models were defined through a field survey. An inventory of the landslide's movements and rainfall records in the period 2000-2016 was performed, respectively, through archive investigations and the application of "Moving Sum of Daily Rainfall" method, allowing for the definition of rain thresholds for the landslide activation (105 mm and 193 mm, respectively, in 3 and 30 days prior to the event). The displacements over the last 8 years (2016-2023) were monitored through an innovative in-continuum monitoring inclinometric system and Earth Observation (EO) data (i.e., relying on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, or InSAR data): it gave the opportunity to validate the rainfall thresholds previously defined. This study aims to provide information to public authorities for the appropriate management of the site. Moreover, the proposed workflow could be adopted as a guideline for investigating similar situations.

#2123 Ageing, renal function and frailty: analysis of the FRASNET study

Abstract Background and Aims Frailty is a common geriatric syndrome of significant public health importance. The kidney is one of the organs that progressively loses function with aging leading a decrease of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In elderly the definition of eGFR threshold for the diagnosis of CKD is debated. FRASNET study aims of identify the role of kidney function (glomerular and tubular involvement) in determining frailty among not community-dwelling elderly adults, also depending on the genetics of each single subject. Method The FRASNET study was a cross-sectional multicentre observational cohort study involving healthy. The exclusion criteria were: i) severe cognitive impairment, ii) severe health problems. They have been characterised for BP, GFR, sodium intake (Kawasaki formula), cognitive status, quality of life, anamnestic factors, health and socio-economic status. Frailty was determined according to modified Fried index by the presence of three conditions among reduced grip strength, reduced gait speed, low physical activity, self-reported exhaustion. We considered the number of drugs as an index of comorbidity. Genotyping of 20 targeted single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected on renal and hypertension was performed. ANOVA and conditional inference tree analysis have been carried out. Results 1183 individuals were included in the study sample. Median age was 72 [IQ 69-77]. 328 (27.7%) subjects were robust, 445 (37.6%) pre-frail, 410 (34.7%) frail. Frailty increases with age, especially after 75 years (from 28.9% to 75.7%). The overall mean GFR was 71.8 ± 16.5 ml/min/1.73 m2. Estimated 24 h urinary sodium excretion was 194.5 mEq/24 h with median fractional excretion of sodium (FeNa) 0.75%. In 31.9% of sample FeNa was greater than 1%. Only 3% of subjects reported CKD. Moreover, 21.1% presented eGFR ≤ 60 and the prevalence of CKD increases according to age from 12.3% to 70.3%. CKD prevalence increases in linear manner across frailty classes from 20% in robust to 47.6% in frail. Conditional inference tree analysis confirmed the role of age, comorbidity and GFR in determining frailty. In oldest subjects (&amp;gt;75 years old), the eGFR level most strongly associated with frailty was below 53 (ml/min/1.73 m2) (Fig. 1). No differences in sodium excretion were observed according to frailty classes. Moreover, we observed an increase of FeNa according to age and frailty classes form 0.71% (median (IQR 0.567)) to 0.79% (median (IQR 0.690)). In frail group exaggerated FeNa (&amp;gt;1%) is more frequent than in robust and pre-frail subjects (Chi-squared p = 0.021). Even after the introduction of these variables in inferential trees the new proposed cut-off for GFR (53) is a main determinant of frailty in oldest (Fig. 2). The eGFR parameter resulted associated with two genetic variants in RAAS system, rs5051 in the angiotensinogen gene (AGT) and rs2131127 in the angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AGTR1). The rs4293393 in uromodulin gene (UMOD) was confirmed associated with eGFR value. Conclusion The present study is part of the complex debate on the relationship among renal function, aging and frailty. We can therefore conclude that glomerular filtration (eGFR below 50 and not the presence of CKD) must be considered among the factors that influence frailty. Our study also showed a deterioration of tubular function in frail subject that can be expression of structural changes due to nephroangiosclerosis.