Thickness Anomalies Research Articles

Is the ‘Year Without a Summer’ imprinted in continental varve thickness records?

The 1816 CE Year Without a Summer (YWS), following the 1815 CE Tambora eruption, is a classic example of a global cooling event caused by a volcanic eruption. It is well-documented in various historical sources and natural archives. In this study, we investigate whether imprints of this event can be detected in time series of varve and varve sublayer thickness (VT) derived from lake archives. To this end, we examine 43 published and globally distributed VT records covering the period 1766–1866 CE. We hypothesize that thickness anomalies in many VT records correspond to the YWS because it was one of the most prominent climatic events of recent centuries, and VT is a sensitive climate recorder. We evaluate site-specific temperature and precipitation anomalies for the YWS of each investigated lake using available climate model simulations that incorporate proxy and observational data. VT anomalies are identified based on individually selected threshold values for each record, following a robust estimation of trend and variability in the VT data. The climate variables and seasons most influential to VT are determined for each lake based on the related original publications. Our analysis documents that only five records reveal VT anomalies attributable to the YWS. The relationship between VT anomalies and the YWS is questionable in seven records, primarily due to uncertainty about the climatic influence on VT in these cases, and unlikely for the remaining 31 records. The 31 records lacking a YWS signature are divided into two groups. In the first group, the absence of VT anomalies is likely due to weak climate forcing, as temperature and precipitation changed only slightly at those locations. In the second group, while climate forcing was significant, the season during which the anomaly occurred or the specific climate variable that deviated from the long-term mean were not the primary drivers of VT identified in the original studies. We conclude that VT anomalies due to annual climate events are only recorded if a combination of favorable conditions coincides.

Палеотектонический анализ отложений нижнеапшеронской литофациальной пачки Астраханского Прикаспия

The paleotectonic analysis of the Apsheron deposits of the Astrakhan Caspian Sia is considered. The main at-tention is paid to the analysis of the deposits of the lower Apsheron lithofacies unit, which includes the study of the thickness of the deposits, the construction of maps of thicknesses and trend values, as well as the analysis of the wave pattern of seismic works carried out in the territory of the Astrakhan Caspian Sia. The results of the study showed that during the Lower Apsheron time, significant tectonic processes took place in the region, including the growth of salt domes and the formation of alluvial fans. These processes had a significant impact on sedimentation and the distribution of sediment thicknesses. The conclusions about the influence of salt dome tectonics on sedimentation, as well as the role of paleorelief in the formation of local thickness anomalies are presented as well. The results obtained are important for understanding the geological history of the region and assessing its oil and gas potential. The data presented in the article are based on the analysis of geological data, including seismic data, and the use of paleotectonic analysis methods. The article describes in detail the research methods and provides examples of specific results obtained during the work.

Cranial bone thickness and density anomalies quantified from CT images can identify chronic increased intracranial pressure

PurposeThe diagnosis of chronic increased intracranial pressure (IIP)is often based on subjective evaluation or clinical metrics with low predictive value. We aimed to quantify cranial bone changes associated with pediatric IIP using CT images and to identify patients at risk.MethodsWe retrospectively quantified local cranial bone thickness and mineral density from the CT images of children with chronic IIP and compared their statistical differences to normative children without IIP adjusting for age, sex and image resolution. Subsequently, we developed a classifier to identify IIP based on these measurements. Finally, we demonstrated our methods to explore signs of IIP in patients with non-syndromic sagittal craniosynostosis (NSSC).ResultsWe quantified a significant decrease of bone density in 48 patients with IIP compared to 1,018 normative subjects (P < .001), but no differences in bone thickness (P = .56 and P = .89 for age groups 0–2 and 2–10 years, respectively). Our classifier demonstrated 83.33% (95% CI: 69.24%, 92.03%) sensitivity and 87.13% (95% CI: 84.88%, 89.10%) specificity in identifying patients with IIP. Compared to normative subjects, 242 patients with NSSC presented significantly lower cranial bone density (P < .001), but no differences were found compared to patients with IIP (P = .57). Of patients with NSSC, 36.78% (95% CI: 30.76%, 43.22%) presented signs of IIP.ConclusionCranial bone changes associated with pediatric IIP can be quantified from CT images to support earlier diagnoses of IIP, and to study the presence of IIP secondary to cranial pathology such as non-syndromic sagittal craniosynostosis.

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model versus Observations

Abstract Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous offshore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline, leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season—a signal then amplified by the ice–albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE; a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in global climate model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counterintuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large, or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More important, periods with weak correlation between winter FSIAE and the following Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes generally dominate over late-winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the winter FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline at the onset of the melt season is a ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

Dynamics of the Barrier Layer Dipole in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractThe barrier layer (BL) significantly impacts the upper ocean circulation and thermodynamic structure by inhibiting the heat and momentum exchange between the mixed layer (ML) and the subsurface layer. There exist sea surface temperature and salinity dipole modes in the tropical Indian Ocean, however, a BL dipole mode has not yet been identified. Using the latest observations and ocean reanalysis, here we show a robust BL dipole mode in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, which is highly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Composite analysis shows that the BL thickness anomalies peak in autumn and are much larger during positive IOD events than during negative IOD events. We show that a positive BL dipole phase is characterized by positive BL thickness anomalies in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and negative BL thickness anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and vice versa for a negative BL dipole phase. During positive IOD events, negative surface salinity anomalies slightly affect the ML depth along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies deepen the isothermal layer (IL) in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies significantly lift the IL in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, controlling the BL thickness anomalies and forming a positive BL dipole pattern. This operates in an opposite direction during negative IOD events. Our study shows a close relationship between the BL dipole and the IOD and has far‐reaching implications for better understanding and predicting the IOD events.

The 365 km tunnels assessment along ASPI Motorways Network – Key findings addressing risk analysis procedures and structural conditions evaluation and strategy of interventions

An extraordinary assessment plan, performed on 365 km of motorway tunnels, has been carried out in Italy since 2020 starting with detailed inspections and testing. Hundreds of laser scanning kilometres and ground-penetrating radargrams, thousands of concrete compressive strength tests, endoscope inspections and flat-jack tests have been performed so far. Tens of thousands structural defects were detected and several square meters of temporary safety measures installed as well. This allowed to acquire a significant amount of knowledges about the current condition of the asset. According to the process defined by the new Italian Regulations, the dataset analysis provides an insight into the condition of the asset, guiding the entire maintenance process. The visual and detailed inspections frequency is driven by the simplified risk analysis outcome and further safety evaluation are designed based on multidisciplinary criticality. A comprehensive approach, based on in-depth knowledge of the characteristics of the existing tunnel, has been engineered for structural risk, with a focus on tunnel “history” (excavation stages and techniques, construction materials, etc.), design and dimensioning approaches (e.g. Kommerel’s graphical method), identified as standard methods for the tunnel construction period from literature review. Additional analyses are carried out for likely local structural failure modes of tunnel lining (punching and flexural strength of residual concrete layers, spalling hazard of concrete thickness anomalies due to temperature variations). When re-lining is needed, the design of a new shell aimed to ensure at least the same structural performance of the original one is addressed, including seismic loads that were neglected in the original design. The tunnel assessment, from inspections to re-lining works passing through risk analysis, is an on-going process open to be improved in the upcoming years within a wider asset management strategy.

Mesoscale Eddy Modulation of Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum Layers in the South China Sea

AbstractSubsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layers contribute considerably to the integrated biomass of the water column and can be strongly modulated by mesoscale eddies that are ubiquitous in the global ocean. The mechanisms of eddy‐induced surface chlorophyll concentration have been extensively examined in the South China Sea (SCS). However, the potential impact of mesoscale eddies on SCM layers remains unclear. We examined the influence of mesoscale eddies on the depth, thickness and magnitude of SCM layers in the SCS using output from an eddy‐permitting biological–physical coupled model over a 22‐year period. Our study shows that nutrient distribution is largely driven by eddy dynamics, with cyclonic eddies enhancing the supply of inorganic nutrients in the upper layers by uplifting the thermocline, and downward displacement of the thermocline in anticyclonic eddies, reducing the nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from the depth. We found that anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies are responsible for increased (decreased) SCM depth and decreased (increased) SCM magnitude; SCM thickness decreased in cyclonic eddies but slightly increased in anticyclonic eddies. The effects of mesoscale eddies depend on eddy amplitude. Maximal anomalies in depth, thickness and magnitude always occur near the center of eddies. Phytoplankton community structure at SCM layers is also affected by eddies, with more diatoms in cyclonic eddies and more coccolithophores in anticyclonic eddies. Our study will advance our understanding of mesoscale physical–biogeochemical interactions.

Three‐Dimensional Electrical Structure Beneath the Epicenter Zone and Seismogenic Setting of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan Earthquake, China

AbstractBased on magnetotelluric array data and the three‐dimensional (3D) inversion algorithm, we obtain the 3D electrical structure of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan earthquake zone. The seismogenic structure comprised a thick resistive anomaly located east of the Tangshan fault (TSF), a thin resistive belt extending westward, and the TSF zone. A geodynamic model is proposed based on the 3D electrical model and the other research findings. The model indicates that the primary cause of the Tangshan earthquake was the almost EW‐trending horizontal pushing from the west. The local uplift of deep thermal materials on the west side of TSF produces tensile deformation superimposed on the existing shear deformation. The combined effect of these two forces controls the Tangshan earthquake deformation characteristic. Prevailing horizontal pushing from the west and local uplift of hot material may be associated with the Tibet Plateau's eastward escape and the subduction of the Pacific plate.

[formula omitted] wave teleseismic tomography of the subducted Chile rise

We investigate the crustal and upper mantle structure of the Aysén region of Chile from 44° to 49° S, a place where the diverging oceanic Nazca and Antarctic plates subduct beneath the South American continent. The Seismic Experiment in the Aysén Region of Chile (SEARCH) project operated a network of up to 60 land-based seismometers in this region between 2004 and 2006, centered over a 6 Myr old subducted spreading center. The data are used to examine the P wave velocity structure beneath the region using relative-arrival teleseismic travel time tomography, using 2534 P wave residuals from 173 teleseismic earthquakes. It is possible to image the velocity structure beneath the seismic network from ∼30 down to ∼300 km depth. The model can resolve structures at a spatial scale between ∼60 and ∼200 km and shows a large difference between the northern and southern parts of the region. To the north, a ∼100 km thick fast anomaly exists which dips away from the subduction trench; likely to be related to the subducting Nazca plate. Going to the south, as the age of this plate at the subduction trench decreases and arc volcanism shuts off, the fast anomaly migrates further from the trench, suggesting that the Nazca plate subducts at a reduced angle over a larger distance before the subduction angle steepens. The distinct sections of the fast anomaly suggest that slab tears exist across the fracture zones between subducted plate segments. Where the 6 Myr old subducted ridge segment is predicted to lie, there is a region of low velocity between ∼100 and ∼300 km depth, and no fast region associated with a subducting slab is present, indicating the presence of an asthenospheric window between the subducted Nazca and Antarctic plates.

Warming Permafrost in the Western Alps: A Further Evidence of Elevation Dependent Warming?

The present study aims at characterising the recent thermal evolution of permafrost in the Aosta Valley region (Italy, Western European Alps) using active layer thickness anomalies and warming trends of both surface and deep temperatures as indicators. The dataset includes monitoring sites located at different altitudes and geomorphological contexts such as rock walls, high-altitude plateau and proglacial margins.The results show that the thickness of the active layer is increasing everywhere and that anomalies are consistent between sites despite their different characteristics and distances. Significant warming trends of about +0.2°C/10y are observed at 15 m depth in sites around 3000 m of elevation. In steep rockwalls warming trends at the rock surface are significant only on the north-facing faces where values are on average +0.42°C/10y at elevations above 4000 m.The present study aims to provide a snapshot on the current thermal evolution of permafrost in the north-western Alps as well as consistent and useful information for risk management. Taking advantage of this analysis, the study also aims to highlight as the temperature measures in permafrost could contribute to the elevation-dependent-warming debate.

The role of oceanic heat flux in reducing thermodynamic ice growth in Nares Strait and promoting earlier collapse of the ice bridge

Abstract. The ice bridge in Nares Strait is a well-known phenomenon that affects the liquid and solid freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean through the strait and controls the downstream North Open Water polynya in northern Baffin Bay. Recently, the ice bridge has been in a state of decline, either breaking up earlier in the year or not forming at all and thereby increasing the sea ice export out of the Arctic Ocean. The decline in the ice bridge has been ascribed to thinner and therefore weaker ice from the Arctic Ocean entering Nares Strait; however, local forcing also affects the state of the ice bridge and thereby influences when it breaks up. Using a variety of remotely sensed data we examine the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness within the ice bridge, highlighting the presence of negative ice thickness anomalies on both the eastern and western sides of the strait and identifying a recurrent sensible heat polynya that forms within the ice bridge near Cape Jackson in northwestern Greenland. Using the sea ice–ocean model FESOM2, we then attribute these ice thickness anomalies to the heat from warmer subsurface waters of Pacific and Atlantic origin that reduce thermodynamic ice growth throughout winter on the western and eastern sides, respectively. The consequently weaker and thinner areas within the ice bridge are then suggested to promote instability and earlier breakup. This work provides new insight into the structure of the Nares Strait ice bridge and highlights that warming of the modified Atlantic and/or Pacific waters that enter the strait may contribute to its further decline.

Determination of Highway Pavement Layer Thickness and Layer Anomalies with GPR in Burdur Section of D330 Highway

Ground Penetration Radar (GPR) is an important non-destructive testing method used in quality control studies on highways. In this study, the GPR device was used to determine the pavement layer thicknesses and to reveal the anomalies that occurred during the manufacturing on the highways. Within the scope of the research, field studies were carried out in a certain part of the Antalya-Burdur-Isparta highway (17 km). Scanning was performed at two different frequency rates (600 and 1600 MHz) using the GPR device. Two consecutive GPR scans were performed in the year the highway was renewed and the following year. In the first year GPR scans, it was determined whether the planned layer thicknesses were reached or not and abnormal conditions arising from the construction of the highway. In the second year GPR scans, the changes that occur on the highway after one year under the traffic load were determined. With this study, it has been demonstrated once again that the GPR test method is an alternative to destructive testing methods and is a test method that can collect information about the highway without damaging.

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High‐Resolution Sea Ice Simulations

AbstractSimulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small‐scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state‐of‐the‐art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air‐ice‐ocean interaction processes.

Eddy-induced meridional transport variability at ocean western boundary

Meridional transport variability induced by westward-propagating eddies impinging on the western boundary is investigated both analytically and numerically. A simple theory is first developed in the framework of the reduced-gravity model which relates eddy-induced meridional transport to eddy thickness anomalies propagated into the western boundary by long Rossby waves, and this is followed by a suite of numerical model experiments. It is found that eddies impinging on the western boundary excite boundary waves that propagate equatorward along the western boundary, which leads to coherent meridional overturning circulation (MOC) anomalies equatorward of the incident eddy field. The magnitude and duration of eddy-induced MOC anomalies are variable and irregular, ranging from less than 1 Sv to over 5 Sv and from less than 10 days to over 100 days. Importantly, these eddy-induced MOC anomalies lead to considerable meridional heat transport variability across the latitudes, with implications for seasonal and interannual climate variability and prediction.

A Review of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability in Large-Scale Earth System Models

We provide a high-level review of sea ice models used for climate studies and of the recent advances made with these models to understand sea ice predictability. Models currently in use for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and new developments coming online that will enable enhanced predictions are discussed. Previous work indicates that seasonal sea ice can be predicted based on mechanisms associated with long-lived ice thickness or ocean heat anomalies. On longer timescales, internal climate variability is an important source of uncertainty, although anthropogenic forcing is sizable, and studies suggest that anthropogenic signals have already emerged from internal climate noise. Using new analysis from the Multi-Model Large Ensemble, we show that while models differ in the magnitude and timing of predictable signals, many ice predictability characteristics are robust across multiple models. This includes the reemergence of predictable seasonal signals in ice area and the sizable uncertainty in predictions of ice-free Arctic timing associated with internal variability.

AQUIFER VULNERABILITY EVALUATION IN SOUTHWESTERN NIGERIA FROM AHP-GODT MODEL USING GEO-ELECTRICAL DERIVED PARAMETERS

&lt;em&gt;The study aimed to determine the exposure levels of the subsurface aquiferous layers, owing to the alarming rate of contamination of the groundwater within 8.150 &lt;sup&gt;0&lt;/sup&gt;N - 8.156 &lt;sup&gt;0&lt;/sup&gt;N and 4.244 &lt;sup&gt;0&lt;/sup&gt;E - 4.248 &lt;sup&gt;0&lt;/sup&gt;E. Thus, aquifers' overlying layers, resistivity, and thickness anomalies were determined to generate an aquifer vulnerability map. A multi-criteria decision method of estimated Groundwater confinement, Overlying strata, Depth to Aquifer, and Topography index approach was implemented. Schlumberger's Vertical Electrical Sounding technique was implemented to acquire 30 Vertical Electrical Sounding points under a maximum half-current electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m. IP2Win geophysical software packages were used to analyze the varying layer resistivity, depth, thickness, and also the sounding curves of the study area. The 2D model revealed a maximum of four geo-electric layers. The layers' resistivity and thickness ranges are clayey silt topsoil (52.5-1104 Ωm; 0.5-9.59 m), weathered layer (10.3-804 Ωm; 0.6-12.1 m), fractured basement (5.5-50832 Ωm; 6.7-18.1 m) and fresh basement (8.3-27348 Ωm; infinity m). On the Groundwater Overlying Strata Depth to Aquifer and Topography model scale, the area is generally characterized by the moderate vulnerability. Implying here is that aquifers have a moderate protective capacity in which the overlying strata above the aquifer are mostly impermeable layers (clay and silt) of high thickness and low porosity.&lt;/em&gt;

A Regional Seasonal Forecast Model of Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent: Reflected Solar Radiation versus Late Winter Coastal Divergence

AbstractThinning sea ice cover in the Arctic is associated with larger interannual variability in the minimum sea ice extent (SIE). The current generation of forced or fully coupled models, however, has difficulty predicting SIE anomalies from the long-term trend, highlighting the need to better identify the mechanisms involved in the seasonal evolution of sea ice cover. One such mechanism is coastal divergence (CD), a proxy for ice thickness anomalies based on late winter ice motion, quantified using Lagrangian ice tracking. CD gains predictive skill through the positive feedback of surface albedo anomalies, mirrored in reflected solar radiation (RSR), during melt season. Exploring the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to minimum SIE predictability, RSR, initial SIE (iSIE), and CD are compared as predictors using a regional seasonal sea ice forecast model for 1 July, 1 June, and 1 May forecast dates for all Arctic peripheral seas. The predictive skill of June RSR anomalies mainly originates from open water fraction at the surface; that is, June iSIE and June RSR have equal predictive skill for most seas. The finding is supported by the surprising positive correlation found between June melt pond fraction (MPF) and June RSR in all peripheral seas: MPF anomalies indicate the presence of ice or open water, which is key to creating minimum SIE anomalies. This contradicts models that show correlation between melt onset, MPF, and the minimum SIE. A hindcast model shows that for a 1 May forecast, CD anomalies have better predictive skill than RSR anomalies for most peripheral seas.

Seasonal Prediction and Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice

AbstractCompared to the Arctic, seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In this work, we utilize three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to assess the seasonal prediction skill and predictability of Antarctic sea ice. These systems, based on the FLOR, SPEAR_LO, and SPEAR_MED dynamical models, differ in their coupled model components, initialization techniques, atmospheric resolution, and model biases. Using suites of retrospective initialized seasonal predictions spanning 1992–2018, we investigate the role of these factors in determining Antarctic sea ice prediction skill and examine the mechanisms of regional sea ice predictability. We find that each system is capable of skillfully predicting regional Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) with skill that exceeds a persistence forecast. Winter SIE is skillfully predicted 11 months in advance in the Weddell, Amundsen/Bellingshausen, Indian, and west Pacific sectors, whereas winter skill is notably lower in the Ross sector. Zonally advected upper-ocean heat content anomalies are found to provide the crucial source of prediction skill for the winter sea ice edge position. The recently developed SPEAR systems are more skillful than FLOR for summer sea ice predictions, owing to improvements in sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness initialization. Summer Weddell SIE is skillfully predicted up to 9 months in advance in SPEAR_MED, due to the persistence and drift of initialized sea ice thickness anomalies from the previous winter. Overall, these results suggest a promising potential for providing operational Antarctic sea ice predictions on seasonal time scales.

Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift summer sea ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification

Abstract. Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exiting the Arctic Ocean does so through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated summer (July–August) time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20 % thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison of this time series with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years at the end of the Transpolar Drift. By combining this unique time series with the Lagrangian sea ice tracking tool, ICETrack, and a simple thermodynamic sea ice growth model, we link the observed interannual ice thickness variability north of Fram Strait to increased drift speeds along the Transpolar Drift and the consequential variations in sea ice age. We also show that the increased influence of upward-directed ocean heat flux in the eastern marginal ice zones, termed Atlantification, is not only responsible for sea ice thinning in and around the Laptev Sea but also that the induced thickness anomalies persist beyond the Russian shelves and are potentially still measurable at the end of the Transpolar Drift after more than a year. With a tendency towards an even faster Transpolar Drift, winter sea ice growth will have less time to compensate for the impact processes, such as Atlantification, have on sea ice thickness in the eastern marginal ice zone, which will increasingly be felt in other parts of the sea-ice-covered Arctic.

Subseasonal Predictability of Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Conditions: Bering Strait and Ekman-Driven Ocean Heat Transport

AbstractWe use ocean observations and reanalyses to investigate the subseasonal predictability of summer and fall sea ice area (SIA) in the western Arctic Ocean associated with lateral ocean heat transport (OHT) through Bering Strait and vertical OHT along the Alaskan coastline from Ekman divergence and upwelling. Results show predictive skill of spring Bering Strait OHT anomalies in the Chukchi Sea and eastern East Siberian Sea for June and July SIA, followed by a sharp drop in predictive skill in August, September, and October and a resurgence of the correlation in November during freeze-up. Fall upwelling of Pacific Water along the Alaskan coastline—a mechanism that was proposed as a preconditioner for lower sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Beaufort Sea the following summer—shows minimal predictive strength on both local and regional scales for any months of the melt season. A statistical hindcast based on May Bering Strait OHT anomalies explains 77% of July Chukchi Sea SIA variance. Using OHT as a predictor of SIA anomalies in the Chukchi Sea improves hindcasts from the simple linear trend by 35% and predictions from spring sea ice thickness anomalies by 24%. This work highlights the importance of ocean heat anomalies for melt season sea ice prediction and provides observational evidence of subseasonal changes in forecast skill observed in model-based forecasts of the Chukchi Sea.