Collapse Of Thermohaline Circulation Research Articles

Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

Forecast of streamflows to the Arctic Ocean by a Bayesian neural network model with snowcover and climate inputs

Abstract Increasing water flowing into the Arctic Ocean affects oceanic freshwater balance, which may lead to the thermohaline circulation collapse and unpredictable climatic conditions if freshwater inputs continue to increase. Despite the crucial role of ocean inflow in the climate system, less is known about its predictability, variability, and connectivity to cryospheric and climatic patterns on different time scales. In this study, multi-scale variation modes were decomposed from observed daily and monthly snowcover and river flows to improve the predictability of Arctic Ocean inflows from the Mackenzie River Basin in Canada. Two multi-linear regression and Bayesian neural network models were used with different combinations of remotely sensed snowcover, in-situ inflow observations, and climatic teleconnection patterns as predictors. The results showed that daily and monthly ocean inflows are associated positively with decadal snowcover fluctuations and negatively with interannual snowcover fluctuations. Interannual snowcover and antecedent flow oscillations have a more important role in describing the variability of ocean inflows than seasonal snowmelt and large-scale climatic teleconnection. Both models forecasted inflows seven months in advance with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency score of ≈0.8. The proposed methodology can be used to assess the variability of the freshwater input to northern oceans, affecting thermohaline and atmospheric circulations.

The last Welsh Ice Cap: Part 1 - Modelling its evolution, sensitivity and associated climate

A high-resolution, three-dimensional, thermomechanical ice-flow model is used to investigate the glaciodynamics of the Last Glacial Maximum Welsh Ice Cap – a large, independent ice centre of the British–Irish Ice Sheet. The model uses higher-order physics to solve longitudinal stresses, and is coupled to climate via a distributed, positive degree-day mass-balance scheme. A suite of model experiments driven by the GISP2 δ18O curve was initiated from a climatic optimum at 38.3 ka BP through to the Devensian/Holocene boundary to identify an icecap configuration compatible with available empirical evidence. An enhanced cooling from present of 11.85°C and strong precipitation suppression are required between 27.4 and 23.5 ka BP for the modelled icecap to attain well-established empirical limits, a scenario probably associated with Heinrich Event-2 and the potential collapse of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. The experiments indicate ice-dispersal centres located in North and Mid Wales, the latter being essential for forcing ice southwards of the Brecon Beacons during the Last Glacial Maximum. Deglaciation of the Welsh Ice Cap was relatively rapid, occurring within one millennium. Dynamic stability is governed largely by the dominance and vigour with which fast-flowing outlet glaciers drain the icecap interior, which in turn are linked to variations in the climatic forcing. The distribution of permanently cold-based ice across the uplands and summits indicates the probable preservation of relict landscapes in these areas throughout the full glacial cycle.

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings.

The Atmospheric Response to a Thermohaline Circulation Collapse: Scaling Relations for the Hadley Circulation and the Response in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract The response of the tropical atmosphere to a collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC) is investigated by comparing two 5-member ensemble runs with a coupled climate model (CCM), the difference being that in one ensemble a hosing experiment was performed. An extension of the Held–Hou–Lindzen model for the Hadley circulation is developed to interpret the results. The forcing associated with a THC collapse is qualitatively similar to, but smaller in amplitude than, the solstitial shift from boreal summer to winter. This forcing results from reduced ocean heat transport creating an anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The small amplitude of the forcing makes it possible to arrive at analytical expressions using standard perturbation theory. The theory predicts the latitudinal shift between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) Hadley cells, and the relative strength of the anomalous cross-equatorial Hadley cell compared to the solstitial cell. The poleward extent of the Hadley cells is controlled by other physics. In the NH the Hadley cell contracts, while zonal velocities increase and the subtropical jet shifts equatorward, whereas in the SH cell the opposite occurs. This behavior can be explained by assuming that the poleward extent of the Hadley cell is determined by baroclinic instability: it scales with the inverse of the isentropic slopes. Both theory and CCM results indicate that a THC collapse and changes in tropical circulation do not act in competition, as a possible explanation for abrupt climate change; they act in concert.

Global surface cooling: The atmospheric fast feedback response to a collapse of the thermohaline circulation

[1] In the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation results in a global surface cooling of 0.72 K. The mechanisms that are responsible for this cooling are investigated. Additional experiments were performed with a one-dimensional radiative convective model in which anomalies from the climate model were prescribed. Fast atmospheric feedbacks are essential to maintain and strengthen the global surface cooling caused by a THC collapse. Reduced downward long wave radiation exceeds the decreased upward long wave radiation. This decreased downward long wave radiation is caused by reduced water vapor content rather than by ice-albedo feedbacks. Also, the decrease in water vapor is much stronger than suggested by the water vapor feedback expected from the simulated albedo change. The large decrease in water vapor is the main feedback. On the regional scale, changes in cloud water and cloud radiative forcing further modify the surface cooling.

Response of the Western European climate to a collapse of the thermohaline circulation

Two ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model have been investigated for the atmospheric response to a thermohaline circulation (THC) collapse. The model forcing was specified from observations between 1950 and 2000 and it followed a rising greenhouse gases emission scenario from 2001 to 2100. In one ensemble, a THC collapse was induced by adding freshwater in the northern North Atlantic, from 2001 onwards. After about 20 years, an almost stationary response pattern develops, that is, after the THC collapse, global mean temperature rises equally fast in both ensembles with the hosing ensemble displaying a constant offset. The atmospheric response to the freshwater hosing features a strong zonal gradient in the anomalous 2-m air temperature over Western Europe, associated with a strong land–sea contrast. Since Western Europe climate features a strong marine impact due to the prevailing westerlies, the question arises how such a strong land–sea contrast can be maintained. We show that a strong secondary cloud response is set up with increased cloud cover over sea and decreased cloud cover over land. Also, the marine impact on Western European climate decreases, which results from a reduced transport of moist static energy from sea to land. As a result, the change in lapse rate over the cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies west of the continent is much larger than over land, dominated by changes in moisture content rather than temperature.

Reducing the risk of Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse: sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors

We present emissions corridors for the 21 st century reducing the risk of collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) while considering ex- pectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Emissions corridors embrace the range of CO2 emissions that are compatible with normatively defined policy goals or 'guardrails'. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We inves- tigate the sensitivity of the emissions corridors to key uncertain physical quantities (i.e. climate sensitivity and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity, emissions of non- CO2 greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) as well as to the guardrails. Results indicate a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of the climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by business-as-usual emis- sions scenarios for the 21 st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities already low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor in the early decades of this century. The width of the CO2 emissions corridor is also affected by the emissions pathway of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols, but to a lesser extent. We further find that the choice of the policy goal strongly influences the shape of the emissions corridor. Pursuit of a more ambitious THC target, for instance, tightens the corridor considerably. More strict expectations concerning the socio-economically admissible pace of emissions reduction (expressed in terms of a maximum emissions reduction rate and a transition time towards a de-carbonizing economy) act in the

Stability of the thermohaline circulation under millennial CO2 forcing and two alternative controls on Atlantic salinity

A large ensemble of experiments with an efficient climate model is carried out to examine stability of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) as a function of two key processes that maintain high Atlantic salinities: the “Atmospheric Bridge” by which moisture is exported from the Atlantic to the Pacific; and “Agulhas Leakage” of salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic. We find that irreversible THC collapse during the next millennium is five times more likely if Agulhas Leakage dominates over the Atmospheric Bridge. This finding is consistent with freshwater import to the Atlantic sector associated with the overturning circulation, when the Atmospheric Bridge dominates. In contrast, slight freshwater export is associated with the overturning circulation under strong Agulhas Leakage, helping to maintain higher Atlantic salinity. Predictions of future climate change therefore critically depend on better understanding of the relative importance of the Atmospheric Bridge and Agulhas Leakage.

Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between −67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO2 are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in δ13C are between 0.15 and 0.25‰. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO2 fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO2 changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO2 record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO2 variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North.

Long‐term potential ecosystem responses to greenhouse gas‐induced thermohaline circulation collapse

AbstractAbrupt climate change, such as could occur with significant thermohaline circulation (THC) weakening, appears throughout the palaeoclimate record and in many model experiments. We examine potential responses of ecosystem structure and function to the combined influence of THC collapse and greenhouse gas increase in Central England using a broad range of temperature scenarios. We demonstrate that biological communities in the North Atlantic region could be heavily influenced by THC collapse, but that the pattern of ecosystem responses depends upon the seasonal pattern of temperature changes. Plausible THC collapse scenarios threaten the remnant habitat fragments, upon which much of England's remaining biodiversity depends, by causing shifts away from the currently dominant temperate broadleaf cold deciduous tree type. Furthermore, some ecosystem responses, particularly of energy partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, constitute potentially substantial feedbacks to the local climate system. However, accurate assessment of biotic responses to THC collapse requires far better confidence of the resulting seasonal temperature cycle than climate models currently provide.

Effects of the synoptic scale variability on the thermohaline circulation

Abstract. In this paper the effect of the synoptic scale variability is analyzed using a simple atmosphere-ocean coupled model. This high frequency variability has been taken into account in the model adding white gaussian noise in variables related to zonal and meridional temperature differences. Results show that synoptic scale frequency variability on longitudinal heating contrast between land and sea can produce a collapse of thermohaline circulation when a threshold of noise is overcome. This result is significant because if synoptic scale variability in the next century increases due to the climatic change an increment of the probability of this collapse could be produced.

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (ΔF a ) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K q ). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of ΔF a and K q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor “On” and “Off” states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of ΔF a and K q , reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor “On” and “Off”)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a “Conveyor On” state, irreversibly collapses to a “Conveyor Off” state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.

Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND

Climate change can lead to a substantial reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the world oceans. This is often thought to have severe consequences particularly on the North Atlantic region and Northern and Western Europe. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the extent of these impacts. The results indicate that, owing to a slower warming (rather than cooling) of the regions most affected by a thermohaline circulation collapse, climate change induced damages in these regions would be smaller in case of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even with a thermohaline circulation collapse, the total and marginal impacts of climate change are negative.

Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth

We explore the combined effects of a climate threshold (a potential ocean thermohaline circulation collapse), parameter uncertainty, and learning in an optimal economic growth model. Our analysis shows that significantly reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions may be justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain and irreversible climate change—even when future learning about the system is considered. Parameter uncertainty about the threshold specific damages and the CO 2 level triggering a threshold can act to decrease near-term CO 2 abatements that maximize expected utility.

Strategic Cyclical Scaling: Bridging Five Orders of Magnitude Scale Gaps in Climatic and Ecological Studies

Orders of magnitude separate the scales at which field ecologists work relative to the scales of grid boxes of global climate models. We suggest a procedure, strategic cyclical scaling (SCS), to help cross disciplinary and scale boundaries. Process based ‘‘bottom-up’’ relationships are used to predict behavior at large scales, which is tested against large scale data for a ‘‘top down’’ evaluation. To the extent that discrepancies are revealed (very likely), the bottom up formulae are modified and further top down tests performed. Cycling between large and small scales should thus produce more credible overall results – if the cycling process converges. Issues of convergence, the strategic importance of problems chosen for research and specific case studies (e.g., animal-climate range limits and thermohaline circulation collapse) are presented to illustrate the problems and prospects for the SCS approach to bridging gaps across disciplines and scales.

Growth and demise of Permian biogenic chert along northwest Pangea: evidence for end-Permian collapse of thermohaline circulation

The Permian Chert Event (PCE) was a 30 Ma long episode of unusual chert accumulation along the northwest margin of Pangea, and possibly worldwide. The onset of the PCE occurred at about the Sakmarian–Artinskian boundary in the Sverdrup Basin, Canadian Arctic, where it coincides with a maximum flooding event, the ending of high-frequency/high-amplitude shelf cyclicity, the onset of massive biogenic chert deposition in deep-water distal areas, and a long-term shift from warm- to cool-water carbonate sedimentation in shallow-water proximal areas. A similar and coeval shift is observed from the Barents Sea to the northwestern USA. A landward and southward expansion of silica factories occurred during the Middle and Late Permian at which time warm-water carbonate producers disappeared completely from the northwest margin of Pangea. Biotically impoverished and increasingly narrow cold-water carbonate factories (characterised by non-cemented bioclasts of sponges, bryozoans, echinoderms and brachiopods) were then progressively replaced by silica factories. By Late Permian time, little carbonate sediments accumulated in the Barents Sea and in the Sverdrup Basin, where the deep- to shallow-water sedimentary spectrum was occupied by siliceous sponge spicules. By that time, biogenic silica sedimentation was common throughout the world. Silica factories collapsed in the Late Permian, abruptly bringing the PCE to an end. In northwest Pangea, the end-Permian collapse of the PCE was associated with a major transgression and with a return to much warmer oceanic and continental climatic conditions. Chert deposition resumed in the distal oceanic areas during the early Middle Triassic (Anisian) after a 8–10 Ma interruption (Early Triassic Chert Gap). The conditions necessary for the onset, expansion and zenith of the PCE were provided by the thermohaline circulation of nutrient-rich cold waters along the northwestern and western margin of Pangea, and possibly throughout the world oceans. These conditions provided an efficient transportation mechanism that constantly replenished the supply of silica in the area, created a nutrient- and oxygen-rich environment favouring siliceous biogenic productivity, established cold sea-floor conditions, hindering silica dissolution, while increasing calcium carbonate solubility, and provided conditions adverse to organic and inorganic carbonate production. The northwest margin of Pangea was, for nearly 30 Ma, bathed by cold waters presumably derived from the seasonal melting of northern sea ice, the assumed engine for thermohaline circulation. This process started near the Sakmarian–Artinskian boundary, intensified throughout Middle and Late Permian time and ceased suddenly in latest Permian time. It led to oceanic conditions much colder than normally expected from the palaeolatitudes, and the influence of cold northerly-derived water was felt as far south southern Nevada. The demise of silica factories was caused by the rapid breakdown of these conditions and the establishment of a much warmer marine environment accompanied by sluggish circulation and perhaps a reduced input of dissolved silica to the ocean. Complete thawing of northern sea ice would have ended thermohaline circulation and led to warm and sluggish oceanic conditions inimical to the production, accumulation and preservation of biogenic silica.

Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes

One of the most controversial conclusions to emerge from many of the first generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate policy was the perceived economic optimality of negligible near-term abatement of greenhouse gases. Typically, such studies were conducted using smoothly varying climate change scenarios or impact responses. Abrupt changes observed in the climatic record and documented in current models could substantially alter the stringency of economically optimal IAM policies. Such abrupt climatic changes — or consequent impacts — would be less foreseeable and provide less time to adapt, and thus would have far greater economic or environmental impacts than gradual warming. We extend conventional, smooth IAM analysis by coupling a climate model capable of one type of abrupt change to a well-established energy–economy model (DICE). We compare the DICE optimal policy using the standard climate sub-model to our version that allows for abrupt change — and consequent enhanced climate damage — through changes in the strength (and possible collapse) of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). We confirm the potential significance of abrupt climate change to economically optimal IAM policies, thus calling into question all previous work neglecting such possibilities — at the least for the wide ranges of relevant social and climate system parameters we consider. In addition, we obtain an emergent property of our coupled social–natural system model: “optimal policies” that do consider abrupt changes may, under relatively low discount rates, calculate emission control levels sufficient to avoid significant abrupt change, whereas “optimal policies” disregarding abrupt change would not prevent this non-linear event. However, there is a threshold in discount rate above which the present value of future damages is so low that even very large enhanced damages in the 22nd century, when a significant abrupt change such as a THC collapse would be most likely to occur, do not increase optimal control levels sufficiently to prevent such a collapse. Thus, any models not accounting for potential abrupt non-linear behavior and its interaction with the discounting formulation are likely to miss an important set of possibilities relevant to the climate policy debate.

Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes

One of the most controversial conclusions to emerge from many of the first generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate policy was the perceived economic optimality of negligible near-term abatement of greenhouse gases.Typically, such studies were conducted using smoothly varying climate change scenarios or impact responses. Abrupt changes observed in the climatic record and documented in current models could substantially alter the stringency of economically optimal IAM policies. Such abrupt climatic changes—or consequent impacts—would be less foreseeable and provide less time to adapt, and thus would have far greater economic or environmental impacts than gradual warming.We extend conventional, smooth IAM analysis by coupling a climate model capable of one type of abrupt change to a well-established energy—economy model (DICE).We compare the DICE optimal policy using the standard climate sub-model to our version that allows for abrupt change—and consequent enhanced climate damage—through changes in the strength (and possible collapse) of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). We confirm the potential significance of abrupt climate change to economically optimal IAM policies, thus calling into question all previous work neglecting such possibilities—at the least for the wide ranges of relevant social and climate system parameters we consider. In addition, we obtain an emergent property of our coupled social—natural system model: “optimal policies” that do consider abrupt changes may, under relatively low discount rates, calculate emission control levels sufficient to avoid significant abrupt change, whereas “optimalpolicies” disregarding abrupt change would not prevent this non-linear event. However, there is a threshold indiscount rate above which the present value of future damages is so low that even very large enhanced damages in the 22nd century, when a significant abrupt change such as a THC collapse would be most likely to occur, do not increase optimal control levels sufficiently to prevent such a collapse. Thus, any models not accounting for potential abrupt non-linear behavior and its interaction with the discounting formulation are likely to miss an important set of possibilities relevant to the climate policy debate.

Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy

Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in north-western Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1 % of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.