Thermal Stratification In Lakes Research Articles

Analysis of Tubular NF Plants in Scotland Indicates That Summer Temperatures and Redox-Sensitive Elements Are Correlated with Membrane Biofouling and Shortened Useful Life.

We investigate the effects of seasonal variations in water composition and temperature on the performance of two full-scale drinking water treatment plants in Scotland, equipped with tubular cellulose acetate nanofiltration membranes. Multiple environmental and water quality parameters, recorded over a 4.5-year period, were correlated against membrane permeance, cleaning frequency, and useful life. Membrane autopsies enabled the characterization of the foulant composition. Temporal variations in temperature at plant X led to significant biofouling (manifested by permeance losses of 30-50%, and bacteria detected on the membrane surface) during the summer months, when water temperatures exceeded 20 °C and microbiological activity was highest. Plant Y, in contrast, displayed smaller seasonal variations and was operationally stable without significant fouling. A pronounced increase in manganese and iron (up to 200 and 600 μg/L, respectively) in the lake water at plant X in summer was accompanied by elevated content (∼60 mg/m2) of those metals on the membrane surface, which was consistent with lake thermal stratification and metal input from the sediment into the water column. Our work shows that membrane plants in regions supplied by standing surface water bodies, such as plant X, are more vulnerable to biofouling, especially during warmer months.

The role of pit lake thermal dynamics on the thermal performance of ground heat exchangers

The addition of ground heat exchangers (GHEs) to a pit lake’s basin has the potential for abundant, clean and renewable geothermal energy extraction using shallow geothermal systems. Basin-embedded GHEs avoid direct interaction with mine water, which has been shown to impact efficiency and longevity in mine open-loop geothermal systems negatively. The now accelerated closure of open-pit coal mines presents itself as an opportunity to use this technology. However, no guidelines currently exist for designing or operating GHEs embedded in the sediment of water bodies. Furthermore, the two-way coupling between the complex annual thermal fluid dynamics that lakes are naturally subjected to and heat fluxes on the sediments and the GHE system has not been explored. In this study, we develop and validate finite element models to assess the relevance of lake thermal stratification in the performance of a geothermal system embedded in water bodies basins, e.g., on open-pit mine closures, under temperate residential thermal loads. The results show that the pit lake’s role as a thermal sink improves significantly when the lake’s thermal dynamics are accounted for, with an increase of up to 292% in the lake’s available energy budget. A minor variation in energy budget (~8%) was found whether the lake is modelled explicitly or simplified as a transient Dirichlet temperature boundary condition. This small difference vanishes if horizontal circulation along the lake is considered, highlighting the lake’s thermal energy potential. Finally, the impact on the GHE Coefficient of Performance (COP) is evaluated, with a maximum of ~15% difference among all cases.

Response of the algal-bacterial community to thermal stratification succession in a deep-water reservoir: Community structure, co-assembly patterns, and functional groups

Thermal stratification in lakes and reservoirs may intensify and become more persistent with global warming. Periodic thermal stratification is a naturally occurring phenomenon that indicates a transition in aquatic ecosystem homeostasis, which could lead to the deterioration of water quality and impaired aquatic communities. However, the responses of communities and associated nutrient cycling processes to periodic thermal stratification are still poorly understood. This study delved into the changes in water quality, algal-bacterial communities, and functional diversity influenced by thermal stratification succession, and their relationship with nutrient cycling. The results indicated that the apparent community dynamics were driven by environmental factors, with ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3−-N) being the most important factors that influenced the algal and bacterial community structure, respectively. Ecological niche widths were narrower during thermal stratification, exacerbating the antagonism of the communities, and stochastic processes dominated community assembly. Then, the complexities of the co-occurrence network decreased with succession. Algal community assembly became more deterministic, while bacterial assembly became more stochastic. Moreover, the roles of algal-bacterial multidiversity in nutrient cycling differed: bacterial diversity enhanced nutrient cycling, whereas algal diversity had the opposite effect. These findings broadened our understanding of microbial ecological mechanisms to environmental change and provided valuable ecological knowledge for securing water supplies in drinking water reservoirs.

SENSITIVITY OF A 1D LAKE MODEL TO THE INPUT METEOROLOGICAL DATA

The paper evaluates how the choice of a source of meteorological data used as boundary conditions and the changes in model calibration parameters affect the adequate performance of a model of lake thermo- and hydrodynamics. The quality of simulation of water temperature dynamics in a small lake by a onedimensional GLM model using data from an automatic meteorological station on the lake shore, a state weather station and two global reanalyses was quantitatively assessed. It is shown that the best modeling result (RMSE of water temperature calculation 0,8-2,0°C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0,7) can be achieved using data sets that explicitly provide incoming shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes. At the same time, good representation of the bottom water temperature requires correct setting of wind regime, which is only possible if data from instrumental ground-based observations at a stationary weather station are applied. Combining ground-based observations of wind speed, air temperature and humidity with radiation fluxes from global reanalyses makes it possible to achieve a calculation error ≤1°C at all depths.The analysis of model sensitivity to calibration parameters in case when the reanalysis data are applied showed that parameters related to wind mixing, i.e. the scaling factor for wind speed and constants related to the in-model description of wind impact energy, have the greatest influence on the final calculation error. If we change the intensity coefficients of other types of mixing during calibration it does not lead to an obvious trend in the quantitative estimates of modeling quality. It could also be reasonable to introduce correction multipliers to the values of air temperature and solar radiation fluxes, thus neutralizing the effect of unrepresentativeness of the meteorological data applied for a particular lake, as well as to correct the value of solar radiation extinction coefficient relative to the value obtained from the Secchi depth. The results of the study could be used to justify the choice of meteorological data source and to optimize the methods of calibration of lake thermal stratification models

Challenge to Lake Ecosystems: Changes in Thermal Structure Triggered by Climate Change

Human activities, global warming, frequent extreme weather events, and changes in atmospheric composition affect the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, affect mass and heat transfer at the air–water interface, and induce oscillations in wind-driven internal waves. This leads to changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of thermal stratification in lakes, altering lake circulation patterns and vertical mass transfer. However, thermal stratification structures are often overlooked. The intensification of lake thermal stratification due to warming may lead to increased release of bottom pollutants, spreading through the dynamic behavior of the thermocline to the epilimnion. Moreover, the increased heat storage is beneficial for the growth and development of certain phytoplankton, resulting in rapid transitions of the original steady state of lakes. Consequently, water quality deterioration, ecological degradation, and declining biodiversity may occur. Conventional surface water monitoring may not provide comprehensive, accurate, and timely assessments. Model simulations can better predict future thermal stratification behaviors, reducing financial burdens, providing more refined assessments, and thus preventing subsequent environmental issues.

Evidence of summer thermal stratification in extreme northern lakes

Rapid warming in the High Arctic has induced changes in terrestrial environments that have included major recent shifts in lakes and ponds. Numerous studies exist of spatial trends in water chemistry, bioindicator groups, and paleoenvironmental change from High Arctic lakes; however, little is known about lake thermal stratification regimes at high latitudes beyond assumptions based on generalized classification schemes. Here, we report on the presence in late July 2022 of positive thermal stratification during open-water conditions in two freshwater lakes near Clements Markham Inlet, on northern Ellesmere Island. These lakes are situated in the polar desert at 82.6°N, >1000 km north of the generally accepted northern limit of summer thermal stratification. Given their location approaching the northernmost land on Earth, the thermal profiles of these lakes suggest that the occurrence of summer stratification may no longer be discounted anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

Costs of Daphnia diel vertical migrations under forecasted increase of lake temperature

The aim of our work was to experimentally test the hypothesis that changes in the thermal stratification in lakes of the temperate zone, expected as a result of progressive global warming, will cause an increase in fitness costs in a planktonic cladoceran Daphnia, associated with diel vertical migrations. In a programmable thermostatic chamber, Daphnia magna have been cultured from the first juvenile instar till the first reproduction, in thermal regimes corresponding to the conditions experienced by non-migratory (remaining in epilimnion day and night) and migrating (spending nights in epilimnion and days in hypolimnion) animals. We exposed Daphnia to thermal regimes: corresponding to the temperatures typically reigning stratified lakes nowadays (20 °C in epilimnion and 8 °C in hypolimnion), and expected at the end of this century (28 °C and 12 °C, respectively). The analysis of life-history parameters confirmed the assumption of an increase in metabolic costs resulting from vertical migration of Daphnia along with the expected increase in temperature differences between epilimnion and hypolimnion, which is a daily anti-predator refuge for migrating animals. This may consequently lead to significant changes in the composition of lake zooplankton communities, i.e., to an increase in the share of non-migrating species with small body sizes.

Prehistoric population expansion in Central Asia promoted by the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum

How climate change in the middle to late Holocene has influenced the early human migrations in Central Asian Steppe remains poorly understood. To address this issue, we reconstructed a multiproxy-based Holocene climate history from the sediments of Kanas Lake and neighboring Tiewaike Lake in the southern Altai Mountains. The results show an exceptionally warm climate during ~6.5–3.6 kyr is indicated by the silicon isotope composition of diatom silica (δ30Sidiatom) and the biogenic silica (BSi) content. During 4.7-4.3 kyr, a peak in δ30Sidiatom reflects enhanced lake thermal stratification and periodic nutrient limitation as indicated by concomitant decreasing BSi content. Our geochemical results indicate a significantly warm and wet climate in the Altai Mountain region during 6.5–3.6 kyr, corresponding to the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum (AHCO), which is critical for promoting prehistoric human population expansion and intensified cultural exchanges across the Central Asian steppe during the Bronze Age.

Numerical simulation of thermal stratification in Lake Qiandaohu using an improved WRF-Lake model

Lake thermal stratification is important for regulating lake environments and ecosystems and is sensitive to climate change and human activity. However, numerical simulation of coupled hydrodynamics and heat transfer processes in deep lakes using one-dimensional lake models remains challenging because of the insufficient representation of key parameters. In this study, Lake Qiandaohu, a deep and warm monomictic reservoir, was used as an example to investigate thermal stratification via an improved parameterization scheme of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Lake. A comparison with in situ observations demonstrated that the default WRF-Lake model was able to simulate well the seasonal variation of the lake thermal structure. However, the simulations exhibited cold biases in lake surface water temperature (LSWT) throughout the year while generating weaker stratification in summer, thereby leading to an earlier cooling period in autumn. With an improved parameterization (i.e., via determination of initial lake water temperature profiles, light extinction coefficients, eddy diffusion coefficients and surface roughness lengths), the modified WRF-Lake model was able to better simulate LSWT and thermal stratification. Critically, employing realistic initial conditions for lake water temperature is essential for producing realistic hypolimnetic water temperatures. The use of time-dependent light extinction coefficients resulted in a deep thermocline and warm LSWT. Enlarging eddy diffusivity led to stronger mixing in summer and further influenced autumn cooling. The parameterized surface roughness lengths mitigated the excessive turbulent heat loss at the lake surface, improved the model performance in simulating LSWT, and generated a warm mixed layer. This study provides guidance on model parameterization for simulating the thermal structure of deep lakes and advances our understanding of the strength and revolution of lake thermal stratification under seasonal changes.

Synergistic warming- and catchment-driven mid-Holocene cyanobacterial development: Pigment evidence from shallow eutrophic Lake Mayinghai on the Chinese Loess Plateau

The current lake environmental problem of harmful cyanobacterial blooms cannot be mitigated effectively despite numerous eutrophication control strategies, and climate warming may have been considered as a potential key driver. However, it is still unclear how climate change and associated natural processes influence cyanobacterial development. Here we use a sedimentary pigment record from a remote, alpine, small and eutrophic lake (Lake Mayinghai) on the Chinese Loess Plateau and take the mid-Holocene as an analog to explore the possible influences of temperature, precipitation and terrestrial vegetation on in-lake and catchment processes, algal compositional changes and cyanobacterial development. The pigment data indirectly suggest that a distinctly low β-carotene to chlorophyll a ratio during the mid-Holocene is likely due to an increase in non-nitrogen-fixing colonial coccoid cyanobacteria at the expense of nitrogen-fixing filamentous cyanobacteria. There are two probable synergistic driving mechanisms, of which one is high temperatures and associated increased lake thermal stratification and the other is high inorganic nitrogen supply and resultant increased lake nitrogen to phosphorus ratio. This study provides implications for the potential influences of future climate change on cyanobacterial development under a warmer, wetter and re-forested environment on the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Interdisciplinary strategy to assess the impact of meteorological variables on the biochemical composition of the rain and the dynamics of a small eutrophic lake under rain forcing

Abstract. We present an interdisciplinary investigation of the links between the macro and microphysical properties of rain, the biochemical composition of rain, meteorological parameters, and their impacts on the phytoplankton dynamics of a mountain lake. In order to document this interdisciplinary scientific question, Lake Aydat in the French Massif Central mountains was fitted with a set of high-resolution atmospheric radars, a disdrometer, and a precipitation collector in 2020. In parallel, the lake was monitored via sensors and water sampling. To illustrate the potential of this novel experimental setup, we present a case study of a rain event that occurred in September 2020 and during which, three contrasting sub-periods were identified based on the type of rain (convective or stratiform). Using our high-temporal resolution monitoring, we show that the origin of the air mass mainly influences the chemical composition of the rain, which depends on the rain type. In contrast, the photosynthetic cell concentration in the rain is mainly influenced by meteorological variables, predominantly below-cloud scavenging. The very low concentrations of photosynthetic cells found in rain events cannot directly impact the lake's phytoplankton abundance. In contrast, the rain rate directly impacted the lake's thermal stratification during the convective event. The response of the phytoplankton depends on the genus and, interestingly, three cyanobacteria, Microcystis, Coelomoron, and Merismopedia, showed a systematic response to rain events with a sudden decrease in abundance at the lake surface immediately after rain events. In contrast, the abundance of green algae (Elakatothrix), picocyanobacteria (Synechocystis and Synechococcus), and diatoms (Asterionella and Melosira) gradually increased following the rain events, but with a lower intensity compared to the cyanobacteria species. These different phytoplankton responses to the same rainfall event could play a key role in phytoplankton dynamics in the temperate zone. Our results highlight the importance of high-frequency and time resolution monitoring of both atmosphere and lake to better understand the adaptive strategies of cyanobacteria following rain events.

Influence of thermal regime, oxygen conditions and land use on source and pathways of carbon in lake pelagic food webs

ABSTRACT Intensification of anthropogenic activities in many lake catchments during the twentieth century led to increased autochthonous organic matter sedimentation and degradation of hypolimnetic oxygen conditions due to the intensification of heterotrophic processes. These processes can be amplified by the effect of climate warming on thermal stratification in lakes. This study aimed to assess how metabolic disruptions affect carbon sources and pathways in lake pelagic food webs, focusing on methanogenic carbon. The studied lakes showed strong seasonal variations of carbon source availability and transfers to pelagic food webs, characterized by increased methanogenic carbon transfers to Daphnia populations in winter. The magnitude of these winter transfers seems to largely depend on the amount of methane stored in the hypolimnion during the stratification period, and thus on the amount of methane released with autumnal turnover. Methane production, storage and transfer mechanisms partly depend on thermal stratification intensity, but also on external factors such as land use. This study provides new insights into the impacts of global changes on the sources and pathways of carbon in pelagic food webs through their influence on lake metabolism and thermal regimes. These functional changes may lead to greater production and release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Numerical Simulation Study on the Layered Phenomenon of Lakes and Reservoirs Destroyed by a Forced Circulation Device

Thermal stratification is a common phenomenon in lakes and reservoirs. It has a significant influence on water quality dynamics. The destruction of the thermal stratification of lakes and reservoirs can affect the water environment, improve the water quality and the water environment quality and prevent the occurrence of eutrophication. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) combined with a Eulerian two-phase flow model is used to predict the damage caused by an airlift device to the thermal stratification phenomenon of lake water. The results show that the two devices with different sizes can contribute to a certain exchange of kinetic and thermal energy, affecting the liquid velocity and temperature in the lake water under the condition of different gas velocities. Furthermore, the degree of damage to the thermal stratification phenomenon of lake reservoir is small. However, with the same gas velocity, the device with a guide plate can have a greater impact on the liquid velocity and temperature in the lake water. Further prediction results show that the airlift installed with a guide plate can affect the heat transfer of liquid in the lake and reservoir better and destroy the thermal stratification phenomenon effectively. The quantitative results of model prediction can provide an effective basis for future field scale-up experiments.

Thermal stratification dynamics in a large and deep subtropical reservoir revealed by high-frequency buoy data

We measure the thermal stratification dynamics in Lake Qiandaohu, China, a deep subtropical reservoir, to better understand the mixing mechanism and its response to lake warming. A high-frequency monitoring buoy dataset from February 2016 to October 2017 is used to evaluate variations in the water temperature profile, Schmidt stability (SS) and thermocline parameters, such as the thermocline depth (TD), bottom depth (TB), thickness (TT), and strength (TS), and elucidate the potential effects of thermal stratification on the lake's ecosystem. High-frequency observation data demonstrate that the lake's thermal-stratification cycle can be divided into three stages: formation, stationary and weakening periods. Consequently, a significant positive correlation between the TB and TT during the formation period and a significant negative correlation between the TD and TT are found during the stationary and weakening periods. Additionally, strong positive correlations exist among the TS, TT and SS for all the data. Our data indicated that an increase in the air temperature caused the surface water temperature, TT, TS and SS to increase. Furthermore, thermal stratification affected the vertical distribution of dissolved oxygen and expanded the area of the hypoxic-anoxic zone. The incomplete mixing of the water from December 2016 to February 2017 because of the high air temperature, which was 2.49 °C higher than the mean air temperature of 1966–2015 (6.44 °C), created the hypoxia hypolimnion from March to May 2017. Under the background of global warming, the thermal stratification of Lake Qiandaohu will likely intensify and further significantly affect the lake's ecosystem.

Reservoir 1D heat transport model

Thermal stratification in lakes, hydropower or drinking water reservoirs occurs mainly by the effect of temperature on water density. One-dimensional heat transport models are widely used to simulate vertical temperature profiles since vertical temperature gradients are dominant in reservoirs. Many applications have been made using one-dimensional models, however, there are still features to be improved to reproduce physical processes or allow for better data analysis. The article describes an unsteady one-dimensional heat transport model with high spatial and temporal resolution, including an energy conservation analysis of three numerical schemes: explicit and implicit finite difference and implicit finite volume methods. It is also simulated thermal diffusivity related to advection for run-of-river reservoirs. An application of the one-dimensional heat transport model (MTCR-1) is performed in Vossoroca reservoir (located near to Curitiba, Brazil), comparison with measured data and characterization of the mixing and stratification periods using physical indices are presented.

Ecosystem variability along the estuarine salinity gradient: Examples from long‐term study of San Francisco Bay

AbstractThe salinity gradient of estuaries plays a unique and fundamental role in structuring spatial patterns of physical properties, biota, and biogeochemical processes. We use variability along the salinity gradient of San Francisco Bay to illustrate some lessons about the diversity of spatial structures in estuaries and their variability over time. Spatial patterns of dissolved constituents (e.g., silicate) can be linear or nonlinear, depending on the relative importance of river‐ocean mixing and internal sinks (diatom uptake). Particles have different spatial patterns because they accumulate in estuarine turbidity maxima formed by the combination of sinking and estuarine circulation. Some constituents have weak or no mean spatial structure along the salinity gradient, reflecting spatially distributed sources along the estuary (nitrate) or atmospheric exchanges that buffer spatial variability of ecosystem metabolism (dissolved oxygen). The density difference between freshwater and seawater establishes stratification in estuaries stronger than the thermal stratification of lakes and oceans. Stratification is strongest around the center of the salinity gradient and when river discharge is high. Spatial distributions of motile organisms are shaped by species‐specific adaptations to different salinity ranges (shrimp) and by behavioral responses to environmental variability (northern anchovy). Estuarine spatial patterns change over time scales of events (intrusions of upwelled ocean water), seasons (river inflow), years (annual weather anomalies), and between eras separated by ecosystem disturbances (a species introduction). Each of these lessons is a piece in the puzzle of how estuarine ecosystems are structured and how they differ from the river and ocean ecosystems they bridge.

Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems.

Evaluating planktonic diatom response to climate change across three lakes with differing morphometry

We applied a diatom-based thermal stratification index to sediment cores from three lakes in the northeast USA to evaluate the influence of lake morphometry and within-lake processes on diatom responses to climate change. The three lakes all had surface area >5 km2 and experienced the same regional declines in wind speed and progressively earlier ice-out dates, but differed in morphometry, particularly surface area and mean depth. We coupled this paleolimnological approach with contemporary ecological measurements to validate the use of two indicator species (Aulacoseira subarctica (O. Muller) Haworth and Discostella stelligera (Cleve & Grunow) Houk & Klee) in the stratification index. D. stelligera was abundant during stratified conditions in Tunk Lake and Sebago Lake, but not in Lobster Lake. Diatom-inferred stratification shifted to shallower and/or longer duration in Tunk Lake starting in the late nineteenth century, and continued to become shallower over much of the twentieth century. A shift to shallower and/or longer duration was also apparent in Sebago Lake starting around 1850, after which the index suggested little change, even though ice-out occurred 30 days earlier in 2000 than in 1807 and wind speed began to decline in the 1960s. This lake has very slow sedimentation rates, experiences regular seiches, and has D. stelligera present during circulation and stratified periods. These factors may smooth stratification-driven diatom responses. Contemporary ecological measurements did not support the application of the stratification index in Lobster Lake because D. stelligera bloomed only during spring turnover. In Lobster Lake, the relative abundances of D. stelligera in the sediment record showed some variation over time, were generally lower in periods with earlier ice-out in the region, and have been lower since the 1980s. Our results highlight the different responses recorded in the sediments of three large lakes in the same region to climate-driven changes and support the use of indicator species in reconstructing lake thermal stratification patterns when paired with site-specific morphometric and ecological data.

Under-ice thermal stratification dynamics of a large, deep lake revealed by high-frequency data

We measured under-ice thermal stratification from before ice-on through after ice-off in Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire, a large, deep, north temperate lake, using a high-frequency monitoring buoy in the winter season of 2007–2008 to quantify how lake thermal stratification varies throughout the under-ice season. We examined potential drivers of variation in under-ice stability, identified diel-scale patterns in under-ice stratification, and used this dataset to test the hypothesis that there are two distinct under-ice phases driven by heat flux from the sediment followed by increased solar radiation as winter progresses. High-frequency measurements demonstrated that only a small fraction of the under-ice period exhibited the traditional inverse stratification previously thought to prevail, based on temporally discrete under-ice temperature profiles. Local short-term weather conditions altered under-ice conditions throughout the ice season with brief periods of snow melt, resulting in several days of disrupted thermal stratification. Our data indicate that thermal structure under the ice in Lake Sunapee is dynamic, and in contrast to smaller, shallower lakes, may be categorized in three, not two, distinct phases. As the under-ice season continues to become shorter due to climate change, under-ice thermal stratification in lakes will likely decrease further.

The ecology of the planktonic diatom Cyclotella and its implications for global environmental change studies.

The fossil record of diatoms in lake sediments can be used to assess the effects of climate variability on lake ecosystems if ecological relationships between diatom community structure and environmental parameters are well understood. Cyclotella sensu lato taxa are a key group of diatoms that are frequently dominant members of phytoplankton communities in low- to moderate-productivity lakes. Their relative abundances have fluctuated significantly in palaeolimnological records spanning over a century in arctic, alpine, boreal and temperate lakes. This suggests that these species are sensitive to environmental change and may serve as early indicators of ecosystem effects of global change. Yet patterns of change in Cyclotella species are not synchronous or unidirectional across, or even within, regions, raising the question of how to interpret these widespread changes in diatom community structure. We suggest that the path forward in resolving seemingly disparate records is to identify clearly the autecology of Cyclotella species, notably the role of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon and light, coupled with better consideration of both the mechanisms controlling lake thermal stratification processes and the resulting effects of changing lake thermal regimes on light and nutrients. Here we begin by reviewing the literature on the resource requirements of common Cyclotella taxa, illustrating that many studies reveal the importance of light, nitrogen, phosphorus, and interactions among these resources in controlling relative abundances. We then discuss how these resource requirements can be linked to shifts in limnological processes driven by environmental change, including climate-driven change in lakewater temperature, thermal stratification and nutrient loading, as well as acidification-driven shifts in nutrients and water clarity. We examine three case studies, each involving two lakes from the same region that have disparate trends in the relative abundances of the same species, and illustrate how the mechanisms by which these species abundances are changing can be deciphered. Ultimately, changes in resource availability and water clarity are key factors leading to shifts in Cyclotella abundances. Tighter integration of the autecology of this important group of diatoms with environmental change and subsequent alterations in limnological processes will improve interpretations of palaeolimnological records, and clarify the drivers of seemingly disparate patterns in fossil records showing widespread and rapid changes across the northern hemisphere.