Thermal Niche Research Articles

Intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance along elevational gradients: the case of a widespread diving beetle (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae).

Species distributed across wide elevational gradients are likely to experience local thermal adaptation and exhibit high thermal plasticity, as these gradients are characterised by steep environmental changes over short geographic distances (i.e., strong selection differentials). The prevalence of adaptive intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance with elevation remains unclear, however, particularly in freshwater taxa. We explored variation in upper and lower thermal limits and acclimation capacity among Iberian populations of adults of the widespread water beetle Agabus bipustulatus (Dytiscidae) across a 2000 m elevational gradient, from lowland to alpine areas. Since mean and extreme temperatures decline with elevation, we predicted that populations at higher elevations will show lower heat tolerance and higher cold tolerance than lowland ones. We also explored whether acclimation capacity is positively related with climatic variability across elevations. We found significant variation in thermal limits between populations of A. bipustulatus, but no evidence of local adaptation to different thermal conditions across the altitudinal gradient, as relationships between thermal limits and elevation or climatic variables were largely nonsignificant. Furthermore, plasticities of both upper and lower thermal limits were consistently low in all populations. These results suggest thermal niche conservatism in this species, likely due to gene flow counteracting the effects of divergent selection, or adaptations in other traits that buffer exposure to climate extremes. The limited adaptive potential and plasticity of thermal tolerance observed in A. bipustulatus suggest that even generalist species, distributed across wide environmental gradients, may have limited resilience to global warming.

Vertical and diel niches modulate thermal selection by rainforest frogs.

Thermoregulatory behaviour determines an organism's body temperature and therefore its physiological condition, and may differ for organisms situated across climate gradients. Species' preferred or selected temperatures may be higher in warmer locations-referred to as coadaptation-or lower in warmer temperatures-countergradient variation. Here, we tested if rainforest amphibians exhibited coadaptation or countergradient thermal selection across an underappreciated spatial climate gradient (vertical height from forest floor to canopy) and separating diel activity (diurnal versus nocturnal behaviour). We captured 2534 amphibians over 216 ground-to-canopy surveys, and conducted 282 thermal selection assays for 37 species while pairing microclimate measurements and mechanistic model predictions to understand vertical and daily thermal variation in the field. Amphibians exhibited countergradient thermal selection: species occupying cool nocturnal conditions in canopies selected warmer temperatures than species occupying hot diurnal conditions at the forest floor. Furthermore, amphibians selected warmer temperatures than the average conditions that they were exposed to when active, and this divergence was especially high for nocturnal arboreal species (8.68°C). This suggests that rainforest amphibians dramatically underfill the warm end of their thermal niches, a trend across local thermal gradients that reflects recent findings across elevational and latitudinal gradients. We show that considering multidimensional climate gradients is important to evaluate thermoregulatory behaviour, and its evolutionary underpinnings, for understanding species' niches and community assembly.

Differences in Tri-Trophic Community Responses to Temperature-Dependent Vital Rates, Thermal Niche Mismatches and Temperature-Size Rule.

Warming climate impacts aquatic ectotherms by changes in individual vital rates and declines in body size, a phenomenon known as the temperature-size rule (TSR), and indirectly through altered species interactions and environmental feedbacks. The relative importance of these effects in shaping community responses to environmental change is incompletely understood. We employ a tri-trophic food chain model with size- and temperature-dependent vital rates and species interaction strengths to explore the role of direct kinetic effects of temperature and TSR on community structure along resource productivity and temperature gradients. We find that community structure, including the propensity for sudden collapse along resource productivity and temperature gradients, is primarily driven by the direct kinetic effects of temperature on vital rates and thermal mismatches between the consumer and predator species, overshadowing the TSR-mediated effects. Overall, our study enhances the understanding of the complex interplay between temperature, species traits and community dynamics in aquatic ecosystems.

Seawater temperature drives the diversity of key cyanobacteria (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) in a warming sea

The picocyanobacteria genera Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus play a significant role globally, dominating the primary production in warm and oligotrophic tropical and subtropical areas, which represent the largest oceanic ecosystem. Genomic studies have revealed high microdiversity within these genera. It is anticipated that ocean warming may cause decreased biodiversity in marine tropical areas, as increasing temperatures may lead to the development of a new thermal niche in these regions. Thus, our study aimed to characterize the microdiversity of picocyanobacteria in the Red Sea, one of the warmest oligotrophic seas on the planet, which is experiencing warming at a rate that exceeds the global average. We identified picocyanobacteria microdiversity in the open waters of the Eastern Red Sea basin, where seawater temperatures ranged from 22.2 to 32.4°C throughout the water column (from surface to 160 m depth). Both Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations were characterized to deep taxonomic levels, applying amplicon sequencing targeting the petB gene, revealing up to 15 different (sub)clades. Synechococcus dominated the basin, representing an average of 68.8% of the total reads assigned to both cyanobacteria. The subclade Synechococcus IIa and Prochlorococcus clade HLII were ubiquitous in the water column of the Eastern Red Sea basin, representing 73% and 56% of the Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus assigned reads, respectively. Maximum cyanobacteria richness was observed at approximately 27.5°C, declining at higher and lower temperatures (polynomial fit, R2 = 0.2, p<0.0001). Synechococcus IIa dominated in the warmest surface waters (>30°C) of the Red Sea, displacing other (sub)clades to more saline and nutrient-poor waters, thereby reducing community diversity (polynomial fit, R2 = 0.77, p<0.0001). Our study contributes to identifying changes in picocyanobacterial diversity when exposed to temperatures exceeding current oceanic thermal limits, through the analysis of Red Sea communities already inhabiting such higher-temperature niches.

Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature.

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world.

Pushing the limits: expanding the temperature tolerance of a coral photosymbiont through differing selection regimes.

Coral thermal bleaching resilience can be improved by enhancing photosymbiont thermal tolerance via experimental evolution. While successful for some strains, selection under stable temperatures was ineffective at increasing the thermal threshold of an already thermo-tolerant photosymbiont (Durusdinium trenchii). Corals from environments with fluctuating temperatures tend to have comparatively high heat tolerance. Therefore, we investigated whether exposure to temperature oscillations can raise the upper thermal limit of D. trenchii. We exposed a D. trenchii strain to stable and fluctuating temperature profiles, which varied in oscillation frequency. After 2.1 yr (54-73 generations), we characterised the adaptive responses under the various experimental evolution treatments by constructing thermal performance curves of growth from 21 to 31°C for the heat-evolved and wild-type lineages. Additionally, the accumulation of extracellular reactive oxygen species, photophysiology, photosynthesis and respiration rates were assessed under increasing temperatures. Of the fluctuating temperature profiles investigated, selection under the most frequent oscillations (diurnal) induced the greatest widening of D. trenchii's thermal niche. Continuous selection under elevated temperatures induced the only increase in thermal optimum and a degree of generalism. Our findings demonstrate how differing levels of thermal homogeneity during selection drive unique adaptive responses to heat in a coral photosymbiont.

Is it all about size? Dismantling the integrated phenotype to understand species coexistence and niche segregation

Abstract Niche segregation is a mechanism by which competition between coexisting species is reduced. The ecological niche is a multidimensional space shaped by the conditions and resources that enable the existence of species. We conducted comprehensive univariate and multidimensional analyses of phenotypic traits encompassing morphology, functional performance and ecophysiology, to investigate which phenotypic traits contribute to niche segregation and overlap in two coexisting green lizard species. Our analyses revealed that the main driver of niche segregation was body size. However, when considering size‐corrected phenotypic spaces, ecophysiological traits were still distinct, with little overlap between co‐occurring species. Such differentiation was linked mainly to preferred temperature variance and water loss, highlighting the importance of thermal and hydric niche segregation. Some particular traits such as limb length also contributed to niche segregation being maintained in the morphological space, even when the effect of size was accounted for. Instead, the phenotypic space of functional performance traits (i.e. bite force, locomotor performance) showed the greatest overlap between the two species, thus, less niche segregation was observed, once size effects were removed. Therefore, functional performance traits contribute in a minor proportion to the effective niche segregation between the two species. In light of our results, the most adequate perspective to understand niche segregation in coexisting species is through a multidimensional approach in differentiated phenotypic spaces. Our dismantling of phenotypic traits allowed us to identify niche areas in which trait overlap occurs and others that promote niche segregation, considering or not size effects. Our results suggest that differential use of structural and functional niche space promotes effective niche segregation, potentially reducing direct competition between species. We highlight the importance of studies that include the combination of several phenotypic traits that, as a whole, provide insights to better understand the mechanisms by which coexisting organisms exploit differentiated resources in multidimensional spaces. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to ecological systems, particularly freshwater systems. As a result, climate adaptation planning is more common in natural resource management. Because conservation resources are limited, decision support tools can help managers prioritize actions. We created the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS) for conservation managers by integrating two distinct indices: one biologically based on aquatic watershed-scale species assemblages and the other a habitat climate change vulnerability index. To do this, we evaluated 60 crayfish and fish species in West Virginia, USA, using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index under an A1B emissions scenario. The species vulnerability assessment results indicated that most species we assessed are vulnerable to climate change. Four species of fish and two species of crayfish had extremely high vulnerability due to their dependence on a specific hydrological cycle, sensitivity to barriers, and reproductive dependence on a thermal niche. Aggregating species at the watershed scale (8-digit hydrological unit code [HUC]) using an adapted weighted sum indicated which assemblages were the most and least vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, we created a unique habitat vulnerability index using the established Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitat vulnerability index and an index of land cover vulnerability from the Forecast Scenario model’s land cover change projections under the A1B emissions scenario to incorporate potential synergistic impacts of land use. Land cover projections were reclassified based on the assumption that developed land would have a higher potential to interact with climate change than forested lands synergistically. We combined the two habitat indices at the watershed scale (HUC 8) and performed a Hot Spot Analysis to 1) combine the assemblage and habitat vulnerability indices and 2) identify watersheds of conservation priority. This assessment methodology illustrates a means of identifying priority conservation areas in West Virginia that utilize pre-existing data, can be modified to suit management needs, and, therefore, one that managers across regions can readily apply to their system.

Comparative Genomics Supports Ecologically Induced Selection as a Putative Driver of Banded Penguin Diversification.

The relative importance of genetic drift and local adaptation in facilitating speciation remains unclear. This is particularly true for seabirds, which can disperse over large geographic distances, providing opportunities for intermittent gene flow among distant colonies that span the temperature and salinity gradients of the oceans. Here, we delve into the genomic basis of adaptation and speciation of banded penguins, Galápagos (Spheniscus mendiculus), Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), Magellanic (Spheniscus magellanicus), and African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), by analyzing 114 genomes from the main 16 breeding colonies. We aim to identify the molecular mechanism and genomic adaptive traits that have facilitated their diversifications. Through positive selection and gene family expansion analyses, we identified candidate genes that may be related to reproductive isolation processes mediated by ecological thermal niche divergence. We recover signals of positive selection on key loci associated with spermatogenesis, especially during the recent peripatric divergence of the Galápagos penguin from the Humboldt penguin. High temperatures in tropical habitats may have favored selection on loci associated with spermatogenesis to maintain sperm viability, leading to reproductive isolation among young species. Our results suggest that genome-wide selection on loci associated with molecular pathways that underpin thermoregulation, osmoregulation, hypoxia, and social behavior appears to have been crucial in local adaptation of banded penguins. Overall, these results contribute to our understanding of how the complexity of biotic, but especially abiotic, factors, along with the high dispersal capabilities of these marine species, may promote both neutral and adaptive lineage divergence even in the presence of gene flow.

Adaptive Radiation Without Independent Stages of Trait Evolution in a Group of Caribbean Anoles.

Adaptive radiation involves diversification along multiple trait axes, producing phenotypically diverse, species-rich lineages. Theory generally predicts that multi-trait evolution occurs via a "stages" model, with some traits saturating early in a lineage's history, and others diversifying later. Despite its multidimensional nature, however, we know surprisingly little about how different suites of traits evolve during adaptive radiation. Here, we investigated the rate, pattern, and timing of morphological and physiological evolution in the anole lizard adaptive radiation from the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. Rates and patterns of morphological and physiological diversity are largely unaligned, corresponding to independent selective pressures associated with structural and thermal niches. Cold tolerance evolution reflects parapatric divergence across elevation, rather than niche partitioning within communities. Heat tolerance evolution and the preferred temperature evolve more slowly than cold tolerance, reflecting behavioral buffering, particularly in edge-habitat species (a pattern associated with the Bogert effect). In contrast to the nearby island of Puerto Rico, closely related anoles on Hispaniola do not sympatrically partition thermal niche space. Instead, allopatric and parapatric separation across biogeographic and environmental boundaries serves to keep morphologically similar close relatives apart. The phenotypic diversity of this island's adaptive radiation accumulated largely as a by-product of time, with surprisingly few exceptional pulses of trait evolution. A better understanding of the processes that guide multidimensional trait evolution (and nuance therein) will prove key in determining whether the stages model should be considered a common theme of adaptive radiation.

How hot is too hot? Thermal tolerance, performance, and preference in juvenile mangrove whiprays, Urogymnus granulatus

Mangrove habitats can serve as nursery areas for sharks and rays. Such environments can be thermally dynamic and extreme; yet, the physiological and behavioural mechanisms sharks and rays use to exploit such habitats are understudied. This study aimed to define the thermal niche of juvenile mangrove whiprays, Urogymnus granulatus. First, temperature tolerance limits were determined via the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and minimum (CTMin) of mangrove whiprays at summer acclimation temperatures (28 °C), which were 17.5 °C and 39.9 °C, respectively. Then, maximum and routine oxygen uptake rates (ṀO2max and ṀO2routine, respectively), post-exercise oxygen debt, and recovery were estimated at current (28 °C) and heatwave (32 °C) temperatures, revealing moderate temperature sensitivities (i.e., Q10) of 2.4 (ṀO2max) and 1.6 (ṀO2routine), but opposing effects on post-exercise oxygen uptake. Finally, body temperatures (Tb) of mangrove whiprays were recorded using external temperature loggers, and environmental temperatures (Te) were recorded using stationary temperature loggers moored in three habitat zones (mangrove, reef flat, and reef crest). As expected, environmental temperatures varied between sites depending on depth. Individual mangrove whiprays presented significantly lower Tb relative to Te during the hottest times of the day. Electivity analysis showed tagged individuals selected temperatures from 24.0 to 37.0 °C in habitats that ranged from 21.1 to 43.5 °C. These data demonstrate that mangrove whiprays employ thermotaxic behaviours and a thermally insensitive aerobic metabolism to thrive in thermally dynamic and extreme habitats. Tropical nursery areas may, therefore, offer important thermal refugia for young rays. However, these tropical nursery areas could become threatened by mangrove and coral habitat loss, and climate change.

Trees have overlapping potential niches that extend beyond their realized niches.

Tree species appear to prefer distinct climatic conditions, but the true nature of these preferences is obscured by species interactions and dispersal, which limit species' ranges. We quantified realized and potential thermal niches of 188 North American tree species to conduct a continental-scale test of the architecture of niches. We found strong and consistent evidence that species occurring at thermal extremes occupy less than three-quarters of their potential niches, and species' potential niches overlap at a mean annual temperature of ~12°C. These results clarify the breadth of thermal tolerances of temperate tree species and support the centrifugal organization of thermal niches. Accounting for the nonrealized components of ecological niches will advance theory and prediction in global change ecology.

Exploring the impact of temporal resolution on detecting shifts in the invasive species niche: Insights from Lessepsian fishes.

In this study, we estimate the niche overlap between native and invaded ranges of 36 Lessepsian fish, focusing on how this estimate might vary in relation to the temporal resolution of sea surface temperature and salinity, which are the main niche axes determining their distribution. Specifically, we wanted to address the following questions: (i) Does the choice of temporal averaging method of variables influence the estimation of niche overlap for individual variables? (ii) Does this temporal resolution effect persist when conducting bivariate niche estimations? Niches overlap was estimated by calculating two indices and these analyses were repeated at two temporal resolutions, matching observations to the classic 'multidecadal' average of environmental conditions and to the corresponding annual average of records. Results are compared with verify whether differences can be detected in the magnitude of niche commonality measured at annual or multidecadal temporal resolution. The findings show that the temporal resolution of the data significantly influences estimates of overlap in the thermal niche. Specifically, our analysis indicates a considerable disparity between native and invasive niche regions for most species, particularly when evaluated over multidecadal periods compared with matching occurrence data to the annual mean values of years the occurrence was observed, that is matching occurrence data to a common average of 'present' conditions or to the annual mean values of years of observation. In particular, the largest overlaps between native and invaded niches occur along the salinity axis, regardless of temporal resolution. When considering both temperature and salinity together, the results remain unaffected by the temporal resolution of the environmental data. Almost 30% of the species show a different niche in their introduced range, and for the other species, the overlap between native and invaded ranges was reduced with respect to the univariate analyses.

Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage.

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Flexibility in thermal requirements: a comparative analysis of the wide-spread lizard genus Sceloporus.

Adaptation or acclimation of thermal requirements to environmental conditions can reduce thermoregulation costs and increase fitness, especially in ectotherms, which rely heavily on environmental temperatures for thermoregulation. Insight into how thermal niches have shaped thermal requirements across evolutionary history may help predict the survival of species during climate change. The lizard genus Sceloporus has a widespread distribution and inhabits an ample variety of habitats. We evaluated the effects of geographical gradients (i.e. elevation and latitude) and local environmental temperatures on thermal requirements (i.e. preferred body temperature, active body temperature in the field, and critical thermal limits) of Sceloporus species using published and field-collected data and performing phylogenetic comparative analyses. To contrast macro- and micro-evolutional patterns, we also performed intra-specific analyses when sufficient reports existed for a species. We found that preferred body temperature increased with elevation, whereas body temperature in the field decreased with elevation and increased with local environmental temperatures. Critical thermal limits were not related to the geographic gradient or environmental temperatures. The apparent lack of relation of thermal requirements to geographic gradient may increase vulnerability to extinction due to climate change. However, local and temporal variations in thermal landscape determine thermoregulation opportunities and may not be well represented by geographic gradient and mean environmental temperatures. Results showed that Sceloporus lizards are excellent thermoregulators, have wide thermal tolerance ranges, and the preferred temperature was labile. Our results suggest that Sceloporus lizards can adjust to different thermal landscapes, highlighting opportunities for continuous survival in changing thermal environments.

Thermal tolerance as a driver of reef fish community structure at the isolated tropical Mid-Atlantic Ridge Islands

Reef fish communities are shaped by historical and ecological factors, including abiotic and biotic mechanisms at different spatial scales, determining species composition, abundance and biomass. The oceanic islands in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (St. Peter and St. Paul's Archipelago - SPSPA, Ascension, and St. Helena), exhibiting differences in community structure along a 14-degree latitudinal and a 10 °C thermal gradient. We investigate the influence of sea surface temperature, area, age, isolation and phosphate on reef fish community structures. Reef fish trophic structure varies significantly across the islands, with planktivores and herbivore-detritivores showing the highest abundances in SPSPA and Ascension, while less abundant in St. Helena, aligning with the thermal gradient. Variations in reef fish community structures were predominantly influenced by thermal regimes, corroborating the expansion of species' thermal niche breadth at higher latitudes and lower temperatures. This study highlights that in addition to biogeographic factors, temperature is pivotal on shaping oceanic island reef fish community structure.

Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000–2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040–2050 and 2090–2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Community’s ecological traits reflect spatio-temporal variability of climate change impacts

Climate change is triggering shifts in species distribution eventually altering communities' biogeography. The composition of a community in terms of its species' ecological niche informs of a community's response to environmental conditions and impacts, which is central for a timely conservation. While the thermal niche has been widely explored, given it offers a direct link of warming effects on an assemblage, acknowledging the multivariate nature of a species niche can provide relevant insights of the reorganizations taking place at a community-level. We studied the mean and variance of 10 ecological traits at the community level in two regional ecosystems in the temperate East-Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, characterized by a distinct exposure to warming. Our findings revealed major temporal changes and spatial structuring in the traits and ranges explored over the last decades. Apart from confirming the expected general poleward, deep-ward shift, our results highlighted a widening of thermal and latitudinal ranges, possibly related to a ‘flexibilitation’ of the communities in a context of global change. In addition, temporal patterns reflected how communities have adjusted around regime shifts known in both areas. Regional differences arose concerning the variance of depth ranges and area of distribution, as well as to the global evolution of the communities, which we argue are consequence of their different geographical features and ecological history. The comparison of two large multitaxon assemblages has disclosed a broad-scale motion of response to warming in the bentho-demersal domain. We expect this study will contribute to the understanding of the multivariate nature of global-change effects on marine fauna, which ultimately informs adaptive management.

Large‐scale deviations between realized and fundamental thermal niches in global seaweed distributions

AbstractAimClimate change has profound effects on species' distributions, and it is crucial to understand how well physiological limits correspond to distribution patterns to provide realistic estimations of future range shifts and/or extinctions. Seaweeds are foundation species of global coastal ecosystems, and sea surface temperature is a main predictor to explain their distributions and redistributions under global warming. We here test the hypothesis that, in contrast to other marine ectotherms, physiological knowledge of temperature niches is a weak predictor for seaweed distributions.LocationGlobal.Time PeriodPresent (1984–2019).TaxaSeaweeds.MethodsWe analysed the predictive power of physiological temperature limits to predict real‐world distributions in 126 globally distributed seaweed species with linear and generalized linear mixed models.ResultsIn 72% of the species, there was a difference of ≥|2|°C between the physiological and the realized thermal limits. Both, thermal underfilling (distributional thermal limits narrower than the physiological limits) and overfilling (distributional thermal limits wider than the physiological limits) were present. Thus, in only 28% of the species the physiological limits corresponded to the distributional limits. While heat‐tolerance is a significant predictor for upper distributional temperature limits, we found no relationship between cold‐tolerance and lower distributional temperature limits and the latter two seem to be independent.Main ConclusionsPhysiological thermal limits have limited predictive power for seaweed distributions and deviations may be large. Especially cold‐tolerances are a weak predictor, and forecasting of migrations under changing global conditions (e.g. towards the poles) will need special attention. This indicates that responses towards climate change might be highly variable between seaweed species and difficult to predict. Further, nearly 60% of the investigated species had populations which are close to or beyond their reported upper survival limits and are thus probably under threat of eradication by elevation of sea surface temperature.

Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size

AbstractClimate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long‐lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short‐lived species increase more when their niche size varies.