To evaluate the possible thermal risks associated with the storage of octogen (HMX), non-isothermal differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experiments were conducted in order to ascertain the kinetic model and parameters governing its thermal decomposition. DSC measurements indicate that HMX underwent a crystal transformation prior to thermal decomposition. A kinetic model for the autocatalytic thermal decomposition process was developed through the analysis of its primary exothermic peaks. Subsequently, numerical simulations were performed using the aforementioned kinetic model to assess the potential thermal explosion hazard of HMX under two distinct storage conditions. The comparison was made between the models of HMX autocatalytic decomposition temperature and thermal explosion critical temperature under two distinct storage conditions. The prediction of the influence of ambient temperature on the critical temperature of thermal explosion is conducted simultaneously. Finally, the thermal hazard parameters of HMX under different package quality are given.