Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory Research Articles

PEACE AND SECURITY, HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Purpose: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region that is most affected by both conflict and climate change, with the Sahel, Southern Africa, and East Africa impacted severely. Research has shown climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’ while low state capability and high poverty are core conflict drivers. However, climate change gradually contributes to political, socioeconomic and environmental insecurity and fragility. This study examines perspectives of peace, security and health during climate change in SSA and explores strategic options for the region. Theoretical reference: This study is underpinned by the greenhouse effect, which is a theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methods: This study was grounded in the postmodernist philosophy, and data was obtained using desktop research methodology. This involved reviewing academic studies and grey literature. Results and conclusion: Conflict prevention measures should ensure that climate change adaptation strategies are effectively implemented because its consequences in the region are now visible. Climate change should not be framed merely as a threat to security but as a security issue, although its role as a threat multiplier must not be trivialised or denied. Some vector-borne diseases sensitive to climate change represent an express cause for health concern, calling for evidence-based solutions. Implications of the research: Climate change has a multiplier effect on conflict and health concerns, which are less understood. Originality/Value: Although climate change does not directly cause conflict and health challenges, this study adds to the policy debate and literature by focusing on the indirect effects of climate change on peace, security and health.

Beyond climate change: The effects of deforestation on food security in the Lake Chad region

Deforestation of the Lake Chad region (LCR) has led to the loss of vegetation and biodiversity in the area. This situation has not only exacerbated the adverse effects of rising aridity in the region but has resulted in its desertification. Agricultural activities are endangered as a result of this unhealthy practice. Extant studies have largely focused on the nexus between climate change and food insecurity in the LCR without adequate attention on the impact of deforestation. The study examined how deforestation in concert with climate change has affected food security in the LCR. Data were generated from secondary sources and analysed using qualitative descriptive method. The theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming was adopted. The study found, among others, that the increasing deforestation of the LCR’s vegetation is implicated in food insecurity menacing the area. It recommended, inter alia, an effective implementation of the African Union’s Great Green Wall initiative aimed at ensuring strategic reforestation of the region in order to attenuate the adverse effects of climate change and restore the region’s viability for agricultural production.

Assessing Socioeconomic Risks of Climate Change on Tenant Farmers in Pakistan.

The study uses a transformative worldview to give voice to an economically marginalized group of tenant farmers vulnerable to climate changes due to their calamity prone geographical location. Drawing on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory lens, we examine the impact of manmade actions on climate change in District “Swat” and “Malakand” of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, Pakistan using a sequential mixed methods research design. Through this research design, the results of quantitative survey were complemented with a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. In first phase, we conducted a survey of 200 tenant farmers, followed by second wave of data collection involving 12 open-ended in-depth interviews (IDIs). The both qualitative and quantitative results suggest that farmers in both districts are affected by climate change although their crop yield had progressively increased signaling better coping and survival skills than other parts of country. Majority of respondents believed that climate change is something beyond their control in disagreement with AGW theory. Major economic losses were specifically, due to sudden alterations in weather patterns, such as floods, and hailstorms that reduce productivity as well as results in food waste with no avenues available to reclaim the energy laden in organic food waste. Besides, a productivity loss was attributed to outdated farming, lack of awareness regarding sharecropping and crop loan insurance practices. The study concludes that farmers are most vulnerable to climate change in socioeconomic terms as such changes impact their income sources; This inwardly compels cash strapped tenant farmers to delve in practice of informal credit with substantive risks attached which further deteriorates their livelihoods. The study offers understanding of how low-literate and economically marginalized indigenous tenant farmers cope to climate change and offers policy recommendations to advocate for the rights to earn sustainable livelihoods in the face of grand climate challenge.

The Sociology of Global Warming: A Scientometric Look

Abstract The theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) enjoys considerable consensus among experts. It is widely recognized that global industrialization is producing an increase in the planet’s temperatures and causing environmental disasters. Still, there are scholars – although a minority – who consider groundless either the idea of global warming itself or the idea that it constitutes an existential threat for humanity. This lack of scientific unanimity (as well as differing political ideologies) ignites controversies in the political world, the mass media, and public opinion as well. Sociologists have been dealing with this issue for some time, producing researches and studies based on their specific competencies. Using scientometric tools, this article tries to establish to what extent and in which capacity sociologists are studying the phenomenon of climate change. Particular attention is paid to meta-analytical aspects such as consensus, thematic trends, and the impact of scientific works.

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate Change in Kakamega Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem of Kakamega County, Kenya

The main objective of this study was to establish the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in the Kakamega Tropical Rainforest. This study was descriptive and cross-sectional in design and relied on a mixed methods methodology. Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory and Adaptive Management Theory were used to guide the study. A conceptual framework showing the interrelationship between the dependent and independent variables was outlined. The study utilized both secondary and primary data. The target population was 200 households living up to 10 km from the forest edge in the selected communities neighbouring Kakamega Tropical Rainforest and 20 government officials within Kakamega County. A total of 119 members of the households and 20 forest officers were sampled as respondents in the study. The study findings revealed that the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change were very extreme temperatures and precipitation (the results revealed that temperature is increasing by 0.04 °C per annum while rainfall amounts have dropped by 150 mm for the past fifty-three years in the region). The study recommended that there is a need to conserve the forest to get rid of extreme temperatures and precipitation since it was a source of many services to the surrounding communities and that the forest ecosystem also helped to adapt or mitigate climate change among others.

The Greenhouse Effect Calculations by an Iteration Method and the Issue of Stratospheric Cooling

The anthropogenic global warming theory is based on the greenhouse effect (GH), which is due to the longwave (LW) absorption by GH gases and clouds according to the IPCC. This LW radiation downward is the imminent cause for the GH effect increasing the surface temperature by 33°C. It has been shown that latent and sensible heating are essential parts of downward LW radiation and the total GH effect. In this study, an iteration method utilizing this basic GH effect mechanism has been applied to simulate the warming impacts of enhanced GH effect changes. The results are compatible with the Transient Climate Response (TCR) of 0.6°C. The issue of stratospheric cooling due to increased CO2 concentration has been calculated and analyzed. The stratospheric cooling effect is real but its impact on the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) has been shown to be negative and not positive as generally implied. The reason is that the decreased absorption of LW radiation in the atmosphere always decreases the GH effect. This result challenges the new concept of the ERF that is the sum of Instantaneous RF (IRF) and rapid adjustments as applied in General Climate Models (GCMs). If the stratospheric adjustment has the opposite effect, then the IRF values would be also wrongly calculated in these models. Two independent validation methods were applied to test the temperature impacts of CO2 concentration increases.

The Sustainable Development Ideology

The author treats the concept of sustainable development as an ideology in which ecological assumptions have replaced economic assumptions, and humanity is still considered a means of action, not an end. The author illustrates the meaning of this ideology by showing its history from the report of the Club of Rome from 1972, through subsequent reports of this club and its head Lester R. Brown, up to UN reports entitled Agenda 2021 and Agenda 2030. The author analyses this latter document and the guidelines contained in it based on the assumption that the population of the Earth should be limited, also mechanically, at the expense of the death of unborn children, rather than by a more even distribution of goods, which would decrease the population growth in a natural way. According to the author, these assumptions can be seen in the approach of the signatories of these documents to the issue of the overpopulation of the Earth and in their uncritical support for the controversial theory of anthropogenic global warming. Many objectives of these agendas include slogans that sound extremely noble, but are practically impossible to achieve or their implementation would limit the freedom of farming and civil liberties in general.

The Greenhouse Effect Definition

The greenhouse effect concept explains the Earth’s elevated temperature. The IPCC endorses the anthropogenic global warming theory, and it assumes that the greenhouse (GH) effect is due to the longwave (LW) absorption by GH gases and clouds. The IPCC’s GH definition lets to understand that the LW absorption is responsible for the downward radiation to the surface. According to the energy laws, it is not possible that the LW absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by the GH gases could re-emit downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 on the Earth’s surface. When the shortwave (SW) absorption is decreased from this total LW radiation, the rest of the radiation is 270.6 Wm-2. This LW radiation downward is the imminent cause for the GH effect increasing the surface temperature by the 33°C. It includes LW absorption by the GH gases and clouds in the atmosphere and the latent and sensible heating effects. Without the latent and sensible heating impacts in the atmosphere, the downward LW radiation could not close the energy balance of the surface. The contribution of CO2 in the GH effect is 7.4% corresponding to 2.5°C in temperature. This result does not only mutilate the image of CO2 as a strong GH gas, but it has further consequences in climate models. It turned out that the IPCC’s climate model showing a climate sensitivity (CS) of 1.2°C (caused by CO2 effects only) could not be fitted into the total GH effect of CO2. A climate model showing a CS of 0.6°C matches the CO2 contribution in the GH effect.

Challenging the Greenhouse Effect Specification and the Climate Sensitivity of the IPCC

The greenhouse effect concept has been developed to explain the Earth’s elevated temperature. The prevailing theory of climate change is the anthropogenic global warming theory, which assumes that the greenhouse (GH) effect is due to the longwave (LW) absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by GH gases and clouds. The actual warming increase to 33°C of the Earth’s surface temperature according to the present GH effect definition is the infrared downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 emitted by the atmosphere. The atmosphere’s temperature is the key element behind this radiation. According to the energy laws, it is not possible that the LW absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by the GH gases could re-emit downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 on the Earth’s surface. In this study, the GH effect is 294.5 Wm-2, including shortwave radiation absorption by the atmosphere and the latent and sensible heating effect. This greater GH effect is a prerequisite for the present atmospheric temperature, which provides downward radiation on the surface. Clouds’ net effect is 1% based on the empirical observations. The contribution of CO2 in the GH effect is 7.3% corresponding to 2.4°C in temperature. The reproduction of CO2 radiative forcing (RF) showed the climate sensitivity RF value to be 2.16 Wm-2, which is 41.6% smaller than the 3.7 Wm-2 used by the IPCC. A climate model showing a climate sensitivity (CS) of 0.6°C matches the CO2 contribution in the GH effect, but the IPCC’s climate model showing a CS of 1.8°C or 1.2°C does not.

From Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Climate Response

A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious.

The Correlation between Emissions and Warming in the CET

A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series for each calendar month against fossil fuel emissions for the 245-year study period 1772-2016 is presented. Time scales of 10, 20, and 30 years were tried each at four different time spans ranging from 60 to 245 years at all possible locations within the overall study period. The results do not show a relationship between emissions and warming that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW). The finding is inconsistent with the proposition that warming in the CET data can be related to emissions.

Generational Fossil Fuel Emissions and Generational Warming: A Note

Moving generational trends in global mean temperature anomalies and moving generational average fossil fuel emissions for the study period 1850-2015 do not show a statistically significant detrended correlation that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming which implies a measurable effect of emissions on temperature trends. The findings are consistent with prior results in which a decadal moving window was used.

Have climate sceptics taken the bait? What the deconstruction of instrumental climate records can tell us about the politics of climate change

In the USA, more so than anywhere else, resistance against the government regulation of carbon‐based lifestyles is tied to claims against the veracity of the scientific climate knowledge and the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). In their deconstruction of what some consider a critical empirical test of AGW, self‐styled climate sceptics exploit the paradox of scientific authority, highlighting the ‘placefulness’ of a supposedly placeless climate science. The controversy about the empirical observation of 20th‐century temperature change directs our attention to the role of place, in its dual sense as locality and social rank, in the making of authoritative scientific knowledge and the climate change controversy. This paper debates whether the deconstruction of instrumental surface temperature records will have the desired effect of undermining orthodox politics of climate change.

The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values

Monte Carlo simulation shows that cumulative values of unrelated variables have a tendency to show spurious correlations. The results have important implications for the theory of anthropogenic global warming because empirical support for the theory that links warming to fossil fuel emissions rests entirely on a correlation between cumulative values.

Will Coal save Japan and the World?

The central dogma is critically evaluated in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC, claiming the Planck response is 1.2K when CO2 is doubled. The first basis of it is one dimensional model studies with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km. It is failed from the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for CO2 doubling. The second basis is the Planck response calculation by Cess in 1976 having a mathematical error. Therefore, the AGW theory is collapsed along with the canonical climate sensitivity of 3 K utilizing the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for CO2 doubling. The surface climate sensitivity is 0.14–0.17K in this study with the surface radiative forcing of l.lW/m2. Since the CO2 issue is removed, coal will be the energy for the future of many nations in terms of the amount of resource and production cost.

Y después del CO2 ¿qué?: Una revisión de la construcción social del cambio climático

A traves de una revision bibliografica se muestra la evolucion del discurso del cambio climatico. En una primera seccion se presentan textos que tienen relacion con la divulgacion de la teoria del calentamiento global antropogenico, destacando lo dicho por Al Gore, politico, ecologista y empresario norteamericano cuyo liderazgo ha determinado la forma como se trata el problema. En una segunda seccion se exponen cuestionamientos a esta teoria. Posteriormente se hace un analisis del discurso y una explicacion del fenomeno del cambio climatico como construccion social considerando los conceptos de revolucion cientifica y episteme, este ultimo para examinar su relacion con el ecologismo. Se concluye senalando la necesidad de abrir el debate para disminuir las incertidumbres existentes.