Theoretical Models Of Decision Research Articles

How do school experiences in adolescence affect educational investment in adulthood? The case of parental investment in private tutoring in Germany

AbstractThis article examines the role of parents’ school experiences in adolescence on their educational investment strategies for their own children in middle adulthood. We focus our analysis on the parents’ decision to organize private tutoring (also called shadow education) for their children. Previous international research largely agrees that families with a high socioeconomic status (SES) are more likely to invest in tutoring to achieve competitive advantages in the educational race for higher credentials and maintain a high social status. In Germany, however, recent studies suggest that tutoring in Germany primarily serves underperforming children from les educated families to acquire relatively higher school degrees by compensating the higher demands of academic school tracks. We propose a theoretical decision model based on rational choice and life course theory incorporating psychological factors related to school performance of the parents (such as performance anxiety and ability self-concept) and operationalize four components that are intended to explain the (un)equal use of tutoring: (1) children’s school background, (2) parents’ cost and (3) benefit considerations, as well as (4) parents’ school biography. In addition, we hypothesize on the intergenerational transmission of performance-related factors from parents to their children and how this affects SE investment. We test our hypotheses quantitatively through logit regressions and a structural equation model using unique longitudinal data for 558 families (parents and their children) from the German “LifE” study (1979–2012). Our study produced two key findings: On the one hand, the parents’ previous school performance plays a direct role in the extent to which they themselves are able to provide their children with the necessary support in the event of poor performance. On the other hand, the performance-related experiences of the parents during school are to a certain extent transmitted to their children and thus influence their grades, ability self-concept and performance anxiety. These factors, in turn, are decisive for the decision to organize SE. Our findings indicate that instead of reducing the decision-making process for SE to absolute dimensions of student performance and parents’ SES and related cost-benefit calculations, dynamic factors behind this family decision related to intergenerational transmission and individual characteristics should be considered.

Study on Trade Effects of Green Maritime Transport Efficiency: An Empirical Test for China Based on Trade Decision Model

As the natural environment continues to deteriorate, countries have begun to shift their emphasis to sustainable development, and the study of green shipping—as the main realization of international trade—is an important prerequisite for global sustainable trade. This paper measures the green maritime transport efficiency considering greenhouse gas emissions using the Super-slacks-based measurement (Super-SBM) method, then extrapolates the theoretical model of trade decision covering maritime transport efficiency and maritime transport distance based on the transcendental logarithmic utility function. A panel econometric model based on this theoretical model was constructed, and then the trade effects of green maritime transport efficiency and its transmission mechanism were studied empirically based on the data of 60 sample countries (regions) in five continents from the years 2010 to 2020. The study shows that green maritime transport efficiency significantly promotes China’s foreign trade through three channels: promoting technological progress, reducing trade costs and curbing environmental deterioration. Additionally, this effect tends to be stronger for countries that are IMO members and have higher incomes. This article’s research helps to provide new empirical evidence to explain the growth of international trade.

Quick response in fast fashion omnichannel: exploring cost sharing effect

Facing the rapid value decline issue in the fast fashion product (FFP) industry, improving quick response (QR) capability will allow a FFP supply chain to deliver products to customers faster and capture more value. On this basis, the value compensate through QR effort and the coordination strategy for a FFP supply chain in an omnichannel context is investigated. Characterizing the regularity of product value attenuation and also QR effort as the key decision variable in a FFP omnichannel, five differential game theoretical decision models are formulated, solved and compared, including: (i) without cost sharing model under a decentralized decision; (ii) manufacturer-led unilateral cost sharing model under a decentralized decision; (iii) retailer-led unilateral cost sharing model under a decentralized decision; (iv) bilateral cost sharing under a decentralized decision; (v) bilateral cost sharing model under a coordination decision. The corresponding numerical and sensitivity analyses are conducted on a calibrated real-world fast fashion product, and have found that, in order to achieve higher total profit, a cost sharing contract mechanism is better than a without cost sharing contract mechanism; a bilateral mechanism is better than a unilateral mechanism; and a coordination mechanism is better than a decentralized mechanism. The theoretical themes developed in this study imply that FFP omnichannel practitioners should put more resource and energy in coordinating their QR efforts in the supply chain. Importantly, they should collaborate closely to confine the cost of QR effort investment through a smart selection of the right QR technologies and a better utilization of these technologies to develop and support a highly sense-and-respond supply chain operation method.

Development of a theoretical model of pilot decision making with conflicting information

AbstractThe advancement of technology on the modern commercial flight deck has allowed flight crew members to utilise multiple sources of information to maintain the safety of their flight. Having multiple sources of flight deck information, capable of displaying the same type of information, can lead to a situation in which a pilot encounters conflicting information. Understanding how a pilot makes a decision when faced with an information conflict on the flight deck is important to ensure appropriate design of flight-deck information systems and effective pilot training. This effort utilised data collected from 25 airline pilots who experienced information conflicts on a simulated B-737 flight deck, in conjunction with a theoretical review of how information conflicts impact decision making, to develop a theoretical model of pilot decision-making in the presence of an information conflict. This manuscript describes the model, along with the theory-driven and data-driven approaches utilised to develop the model.

Do Fluctuations in Environmental Regulations Inhibit Investment: Evidence from China.

The trade-off between the goals of promoting economic growth and protecting the ecological environment makes it possible for the government to constantly adjust the intensity of environmental regulation, leading to sharp fluctuations in environmental regulation in the short term. Fluctuations in environmental regulations may trigger concerns among firms and change their investment decisions. The theoretical model of corporate investment decision is used to analyze the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation fluctuations on investment through expected profits, which is empirically validated in this study by data from 255 Chinese prefecture-level cities. The results indicate that environmental regulation fluctuations reduce investors' expected profits, which in turn inhibit investment. The heterogeneity analysis shows that environmental regulation fluctuations have no significant effect on investment in cities that are geographically closer to the provincial capital, while a greater inhibitory effect of it is revealed in other cities located further away. Therefore, this inhibitory effect should be weakened by reducing the intervention of administrative orders in environmental regulatory behavior, establishing environmental regulatory supervisory agencies, and taking into full consideration the public's response to fluctuations in environmental regulation. This study can provide policy implications for optimizing government environmental regulation.

Pricing and inventory Decision Optimization under subscription mode in Supply chain management

This paper investigates the current situation of subscription mode, applies it to the joint management of pricing and inventory in supply chain management, builds the product pricing and inventory model under subscription mode, and verifies the model derivation and results based on the joint decision model of pricing and inventory, and simulates the decision-making process of the model by computer programming. By comparing the difference between the theoretical model of joint decision of pricing and inventory under uncertain supply and demand conditions and the model of joint decision of pricing and inventory under subscription mode, analyzing the influencing factors and exploring the optimization method of product pricing and inventory model algorithm under subscription mode. The results show that: (1) in supply chain management, it is necessary to solve the problem of supply and demand balance through effective joint decision of pricing and inventory, and effectively improve the competitiveness of logistics enterprises.(2) The introduction of subscription mode in the joint management of pricing and inventory can reduce the uncertainty of both sides, so as to better solve the problem of inventory replenishment strategy and pricing decision under the condition of supply and demand uncertainty than the traditional decision-making model, so as to achieve the coordination of supply chain under the uncertain environment.

Relative Affluence and Child Labor—Explaining a Paradox

Some micro level empirical studies questioned the validity of the poverty hypothesis of child labour. In some cases child labour incidence found to be increasing even with improvement in the economic conditions of the poor. This paper provides a possible explanation as to why increase in absolute income may not be sufficient to solve the problem of child labour, at least in some cases. We argue that people in general are not just concerned about their own consumption; they are very much affected by the consumption of their peers. While taking decisions regarding the time allocation of their children between work and leisure, parents do keep an eye on their relative position in the society. We may have a situation where the absolute income of the poor is increasing but their relative position is the society is deteriorating and this may lead to an increase in child work. We develop a theoretical model of household decision making to show that child labour supply from a poor family can increase even with improvements in its economic conditions if the family’s relative position in the society deteriorates and if the relative concern effect is sufficiently strong.

Emotion Regulation and Strategic Decision Making: A Depletion of Resources Perspective

A growing body of evidence shows that making strategic decisions is emotionally draining and requires managers to devote significant effort to regulating emotions. However, theoretical models of strategic decision have not kept pace with these developments and largely overlook the role of emotion regulation. In this paper, we adopt a resource depletion perspective to examine how executives’ emotion regulation capabilities influence strategic decision processes and outcomes in dynamic environments. We propose that executive emotion regulation resources are vital for developing and sustaining novel representations of strategic opportunities, searching for distant solutions, and utilizing social systems for evaluating and selecting alternatives. Hence, the depletion of regulatory resources inhibits these processes and reduces the effectiveness of strategic decision making. By identifying interdependencies among executive emotion regulation capacity and the cognitive and social resources required for strategic decision making, our analysis extends understanding of the requirements for making strategic decisions in dynamic environments. We discuss implications for research on strategic decision making, executive job demands and dynamic managerial capabilities.

The role of time perception in intertemporal decision-making: New exploration of time decision-making model

<p id="p00005">Intertemporal decision-making is very frequent in life, and they require individuals to weigh the outcomes at different points of time before making a choice. Time and value are the basic dimensions of intertemporal decision-making, and decision-makers have to consider value as well as more about the impact of time interval. Although many studies have explored the value dimension, there are still many doubts in the time dimension. A growing body of research suggests that people's subjective perception of the time interval, as opposed to the objective time interval, is the direct factor influencing the intertemporal decision. Therefore, the traditional exponential discount and hyperbolic models do not explain the variability in intertemporal decision-making in terms of time perception. How does time perception affect individuals' intertemporal decision-making? What are the theoretical and neural mechanisms behind the role of time perception? What are the shortcomings of the existing theoretical models? Answering these queries is essential for further research on the relationship between time perception and intertemporal decision-making. <br/>The role of time perception on intertemporal decision-making mainly consists of three ways: (1) Time length perception, which refers to people's subjective estimation of the distance of delay time. The shorter the perceived time length, the less patience people have to wait for the delayed benefit. (2) Time resource perception, which refers to the estimation of how much time resources people have at their disposal. The less time resources people perceive, the more they prefer immediate benefits. (3) Time frame perception, which refers to the change of time description will affect individuals' decision preferences. For example, when the direction of time points to the future, and people are more likely to magnify the value of future gains subjectively. <br/>In terms of the neural mechanisms underlying the role of temporal perception, intertemporal decision-making at the micro-level is closely related to the activation of temporal length perception, subjective value assessment, and impulsivity-related brain regions. In contrast, intertemporal decision-making is closely related to cortico-limbic-striatal neural circuits at the macro level. Researchers have proposed different theoretical models to explain the behavioral dimension of the role of temporal perception. The mainstream theories mainly include the logarithmic/exponential time discount model, the perceived time based model, and the multi-attribute drift diffusion model. The logarithmic/exponential time discount model is constructed based on the exponential discount model, which replaces the original objective time distance with time length perception. The perceived time based model is built to describe the variability of individual time perception. The Multi-attribute drift diffusion model is mainly used to describe the contribution of the attention to the time or value dimension of the decision-making. We believe that the above models only expose the mechanism of time perception from one aspect of the psychological process and lack a unified theory to describe the process of intertemporal decision-making as a whole. In general, the existing models have two limitations: (1) The effect of time perception on intertemporal decision-making differs between the long and short time spacing conditions. (2) People's preferences for intertemporal decision-making differ in actual and expected situations. In order to more accurately describe and explain the psychological mechanism of time perception influencing intertemporal decision making, future studies should strengthen the exploration of the process mechanism and try to construct a unified theoretical model of time perception-intertemporal decision making. Meanwhile, the study of neurophysiological mechanisms should be strengthened, from which the rationality of the theoretical model can be verified. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the application value of the research and design the training method of time perception to reduce the probability of people's irrational decision-making.

Response competition between neurons and antineurons in the mushroom body

SummaryThe mushroom bodies of Drosophila contain circuitry compatible with race models of perceptual choice. When flies discriminate odor intensity differences, opponent pools of αβ core Kenyon cells (on and off αβc KCs) accumulate evidence for increases or decreases in odor concentration. These sensory neurons and “antineurons” connect to a layer of mushroom body output neurons (MBONs) which bias behavioral intent in opposite ways. All-to-all connectivity between the competing integrators and their MBON partners allows for correct and erroneous decisions; dopaminergic reinforcement sets choice probabilities via reciprocal changes to the efficacies of on and off KC synapses; and pooled inhibition between αβc KCs can establish equivalence with the drift-diffusion formalism known to describe behavioral performance. The response competition network gives tangible form to many features envisioned in theoretical models of mammalian decision making, but it differs from these models in one respect: the principal variables—the fill levels of the integrators and the strength of inhibition between them—are represented by graded potentials rather than spikes. In pursuit of similar computational goals, a small brain may thus prioritize the large information capacity of analog signals over the robustness and temporal processing span of pulsatile codes.

Revisiting level II sleep studies in the era of COVID-19: a theoretical economic decision model in patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnea

BackgroundThe recent pandemic has made it more challenging to assess patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) with in laboratory polysomnography (PSG) due to concerns of patient and staff safety. The purpose of this study was to assess how Level II sleep studies (LII, full PSG in the home) might be utilized in diagnostic algorithms of suspected OSA using a theoretical decision model.MethodsWe examined four diagnostic algorithms for suspected OSA: an initial PSG approach, an initial LII approach, an initial Level III approach (LIII, limited channel home sleep study) followed by PSG if needed, and an initial LIII approach followed by LII if needed. Costs per patient assessed was calculated as a function of pretest OSA probability and a variety of other variables (e.g. costs of tests, failure rate of LIII/LII, sensitivity/specificity of LIII). The situation in British Columbia was used as a case study.ResultsThe variation in cost per test was calculated for each algorithm as a function of the above variables. For British Columbia, initial LII was the least costly across a broad range of pretest OSA probabilities (< 0.80) while initial LIII followed by LII as needed was least costly at very high pretest probability (> 0.8). In patients with a pretest OSA probability of 0.5, costs per patient for initial PSG, initial LII, initial LIII followed by PSG, and initial LIII followed by LII were: $588, $417, $607, and $481 respectively.ConclusionsUsing a theoretical decision model, we developed a preliminary cost framework to assess the potential role of LII studies in OSA assessment. Across a broad range of patient pretest probabilities, initial LII studies may provide substantial cost advantages. LII studies might be especially useful during pandemics as they combine the extensive physiologic information characteristic of PSG with the ability to avoid in-laboratory stays. More empiric studies need to be done to test these different algorithms.

Parental Transfers, Intra-household Bargaining and Fertility Decision

Abstract This paper examines the role of parental transfers on family size. We introduce a simple theoretical model of fertility decision where preferences towards children may differ between female and male spouses. Parental transfers increase both the household income and the bargaining power of the recipient spouse. Therefore, transfers from wife’s and husband’s parents may have dissimilar effects on the number of children. Our empirical result, based on a unique household-level data for Japan, supports this hypothesis. In particular, received transfers from the wife’s parents are negatively associated with the demand for children. In contrast, both received and expected transfers from the husband’s parents are positively associated with the demand for children. These results hold important policy implications.

The Role of Randomization in Bayesian and Frequentist Design of Clinical Trial

A key role in inference is played by randomization, which has been extensively used in clinical trials designs. Randomization is primarily intended to prevent the source of bias in treatment allocation by producing comparable groups. In the frequentist framework of inference, randomization allows also for the use of probability theory to express the likelihood of chance as a source for the difference of end outcome. In the Bayesian framework, its role is more nuanced. The Bayesian analysis of clinical trials can afford a valid rationale for selective controls, pointing out a more limited role for randomization than it is generally accorded. This paper is aimed to offer a view of randomization from the perspective of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics and discussing the role of randomization also in theoretical decision models.

Tomada de decisão em orçamento: o caso da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar o processo de tomada de decisão orçamentária em uma autarquia universitária federal, de acordo com as premissas conceituais de quatro modelos teóricos de decisão pública: incremental, julgamento seriado, fluxos múltiplos e equilíbrio pontuado. Itens em comum abordados nos modelos permitiram a construção de categorias analíticas norteadoras para a elaboração do instrumento de coleta e análise de dados. Por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas e a luz dos modelos teóricos de decisão constatou-se, que no ambiente da instituição analisada, as decisões orçamentárias são tomadas de forma coletiva e focadas no ambiente interno, entretanto, sujeitos externos a organização, tendem a pressioná-la para que novos itens sejam adicionados nas pautas de investimento. Percebe-se uma coexistência dos modelos estudados.

Credit constraint and human capital investment: an empirical analysis using Brazilian household budget survey

ABSTRACTThis article is a first step towards understanding the relationship between credit market imperfections and inequality of opportunity in skill formation. The main goal is to investigate the effects of the credit constraint on the optimal human capital decision, in terms of degree of schooling, taking into account the household preferences for education. Our starting point is a theoretical model of human capital investment decision with credit constraint. Following a previous model in the literature, we propose a reduced-form approach that estimates the relation between education decision and initial wealth in Brazil. Our empirical analysis is conducted using data from a Brazilian Household Budget Survey (Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares), for years 2002–2003 and 2008–2009. Our results point out that education decision is in fact credit constrained. The empirical results show a strong and highly significant effect of wealth on educational level of children, teenagers and adults, even controlling by education expenditures. But we find no evidence of credit constraint on high level education decision, like undergraduate and graduate levels.

Investment Decisions Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Mutual Fund Investor Behavior

We provide novel evidence on the role of ambiguity aversion in determining the response of mutual fund investors to fund performance. Our analysis is motivated by theoretical models of decision making by ambiguity-averse investors. A key implication of the models is that when investors face information signals of uncertain quality, they place a greater weight on the worst signal. We find strong empirical support for this prediction in the form of heightened sensitivity of investor fund flows to the worst performance measure across multiple horizons. This effect is particularly pronounced for retail funds in contrast to institutional funds. This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance.

MHealth for diabetes support: a systematic review of apps available on the Italian market.

mHealth is an expanding field of research and experimentation, concerned with the potentialities of mobile applications as tools to enhance patients' abilities in the management of chronic conditions. We present a systematic review of mHealth applications available on the Italian market and for the Italian speakers in order to assess their reported usability and functions. The review shows that there are rather few products on offer and the ones that are available display weak educational components, do not seem to be based on solid theoretical models of behavior change or decision making, and do not seem to be intended as devices to be integrated in the ecology of the doctor-patient relationship.

Relative Affluence and Child Labor—Explaining a Paradox

AbstractSome micro level empirical studies found child labor incidence increasing even with improvement in the economic conditions of the poor. This paper provides a possible explanation as to why increase in absolute income may not be sufficient to solve the problem of child labor. We argue that people in general are not just concerned about their own consumption; they are very much affected by the consumption of their peers. While taking decisions regarding the time allocation of their children between work and leisure, parents do keep an eye on their relative position in the society. We develop a theoretical model of household decision making to show that child labor supply from a poor family can increase even with improvements in its economic conditions, if the family's relative position in the society deteriorates and if the relative status effect is sufficiently strong.

The Situational-Cognitive Model of Adolescent Bystander Behavior: Modeling Bystander Decision-Making in the Context of Bullying and Teen Dating Violence.

Despite the proliferation of bystander approaches to prevent aggression among youth, theoretical models of violence-related bystander decision making are underdeveloped, particularly among adolescents. The purpose of this research was to examine the utility of 2 theories, the Situational Model of Bystander behavior (SMB) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), for identifying mechanisms underlying adolescent bystander behavior in the context of bullying and teen dating violence (TDV). Data were collected via face to face (local) and online (national) focus groups with 113 U.S. adolescents aged 14-18 and were subsequently analyzed using deductive and inductive coding methods. Youth endorsed beliefs consistent with both the SMB and TPB and with additional constructs not captured by either theory. Adolescents reported a higher proportion of barriers relative to facilitators to taking action, with perceptions of peer norms and social consequences foremost among their concerns. Many influences on bystander behavior were similar across TDV and bullying. Findings are organized into the proposed Situational-Cognitive Model of Adolescent Bystander Behavior, which synthesizes the SMB and TPB, and supports the tailoring of bystander interventions. For teens, intervening is a decision about whether and how to navigate potential social consequences of taking action that unfold over time; intervention approaches must assess and acknowledge these concerns.

Impact of Non Professional Physicians' Characteristics on Medical Decision Making in Older Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Frontline therapy for newly diagnosed AML in older adults can be classified as "more" or "less" intensive. Assignment of patients (pts) to intensive chemotherapy (ICT) or low-intensity therapy (LIT) such as hypomethylating agents (HMA), low-dose aracytine (LDAC) or best supportive care (BSC), should be based on patient- and disease-related prognosis factors. Although scoring systems have been proposed to rationalize this clinical decision-making, there is a strong heterogeneity in clinical practice. Cancer management study mainly focused on patients' determinants of care but very few have assessed the influence of physicians' characteristics and none in AML. In behavioral sciences, attitudes towards risk and ambiguity are psychological traits that may explain medical choices. These traits are connected with theoretical models of decision under uncertainty that can be divided in Expected Utility (EU) and Non-Expected Utility (Non-EU) models where the former is often considered as a benchmark of "economic rationality". Choice patterns in decision task known as Allais paradox allow classifying individuals in these two classes of models. In addition, behavioral consequences when the probabilities of uncertain events are unknown are defined as ambiguity attitudes.Our study investigated the impact of physician's characteristics on their medical decisions regarding 6 clinical vignettes of older AML pts that highlight distinct and difficult situations derived from clinical practice.Physicians’ demographical and occupational characteristics were collected through a national cross-sectional web survey among French hematologists. We categorized physicians as EU or non-EU using their responses to the binary lottery choice questions of the Allais paradox (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). A last question elicited a certainty equivalent (sure gain between 0 and 500 euros) of an ambiguous lottery (Abdellaoui & al, 2011) as a proxy of physicians’ ambiguity tolerance.Physicians were asked to decide how to treat (ICT, LIT or BSC) elderly AML pts presented in 6 vignettes (table1). Assessable respondents included those who answered all cases. We used k-means clustering method in order to define clinician's groups with homogeneous pattern of responses to the clinical cases.Among the 230 physicians with assessable answers, the median age was 42 years [standard deviation (SD)± 11.2], 123 were male (54%), 160 were consultant or professor (70%), 166 worked in an academic center (72%), 197 were specialized in hematology (86%), and the mean number of older AML pts treated a year per physician was 20.7 (SD ± 17.1). Regarding the Allais paradox, EU, non-EU and undefined represented respectively 101 (43.9%), 109 (47.3%) and 20 (8.7%) respondents. Regarding ambiguity tolerance, the mean of the certainty equivalent was 241 euros (SD ±136).From the pattern of responses to the vignettes, the K-means clustering yielded two distinct groups identified as (1) clinicians who were more prone to prescribe "more" intensive therapy (ICT), and (2) clinicians who were more prone to prescribe "less" intensive therapy (LIT or BSC).We studied the factors associated with the probability of belonging to the "more intensive" category of physicians. A multivariate model (n=210) on variables identified from the bivariate analyses systematically adjusted for age and gender highlighted the following effects and trend:ambiguity tolerant physicians prescribe significantly less ICT (OR 0.87 [for each 50 euros-increase]; 95%CI, 0.77-0.99, p=0.039), physicians not conforming to expected utility ("economically irrational") recommend more ICT (OR 1.85; 95%CI, 0.92-3.73, p=0.084) and female physicians tend to prescribe less ICT (OR 0.58; 95%CI, 0.28-1.20, p=0.14).Physicians' age, hierarchical status, hospital facility or volume of older AML pts treated a year were not associated with the clusters.Final results of national cross-sectional study performed on French hematologists, show that physicians' attitudes towards risk and ambiguity, i.e. physicians' nonprofessional characteristics, may influence their medical decision making process between "more" and "less" intensive therapy for older AML patients. The extension of this study in different countries is planned to test the cross-cultural robustness of our results and increase our knowledge on psychological traits that could influence physicians' practice. [Display omitted] [Display omitted] DisclosuresMalak:Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Recher:Celgene, Sunesis, Amgen, Novartis, Chugai: Research Funding; Celgene, Sunesis, Amgen, Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.