Testing Alternative Explanations Research Articles

Falsificationist Treatment of Auxiliary Hypotheses in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Auxiliary hypotheses AHs are indispensable in hypothesis-testing, because without them specification of testable predictions and consequently falsification is impossible. However, as AHs enter the test along with the main hypothesis, non-corroborative findings are ambiguous. Due to this ambiguity, AHs may also be employed to deflect falsification by providing “alternative explanations” of findings. This is not fatal to the extent that AHs are independently validated and safely relegated to background knowledge. But this is not always possible, especially in the so-called “softer” sciences where often theories are loosely organized, measurements are noisy, and constructs are vague. The Systematic Replications Framework (SRF) provides a methodological solution by disentangling the implications of the findings for the main hypothesis and the AHs through pre-planned series of systematically interlinked close and conceptual replications. SRF facilitates testing alternative explanations associated with different AHs and thereby increases test severity across a battery of tests. In this way, SRF assesses whether the corroboration of a hypothesis is conditional on particular AHs, and thus allows for a more objective evaluation of its empirical support and whether post hoc modifications to the theory are progressive or degenerative in the Lakatosian sense. Finally, SRF has several advantages over randomization-based systematic replication proposals, which generally assume a problematic neo-operationalist approach that prescribes exploration-oriented strategies in confirmatory contexts.

Testing Alternative Cultural Explanations of Managers’ Values across the U.S.-Canada Border

Testing Alternative Cultural Explanations of Managers’ Values across the U.S.-Canada Border

Fluctuations of immigration salience: testing alternative explanations of policy salience among US Latinos

AbstractWhat makes immigration a salient issue among Latinos? We focus on immigration – one of the most pressing issues facing the United States (US) – and evaluate the factors that motivate immigration salience among Latinos over several election cycles. Although immigration policy has been linked with the Latino electorate over the period of our study due to high foreign-born rates and mixed-status families within this community, immigration policy has actually not been the dominant issue for the majority of Latino voters over this time period. Using survey responses from the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, we test multiple theories of issue salience by exploring social, political and individual determinants of policy salience among Latino voters. We find that in addition to nativity, consumption of ethnic media and group identity are associated with reporting immigration as a salient issue. These findings provide a valuable addition to literature of public opinion on immigration and the origins of policy issue salience among ethno-racial minorities in the US.

Intent matters: Resolving the intentional versus incidental learning paradox in episodic long-term memory.

Decades of research have established that the intent to remember information has no effect on episodic long-term memory. This claim, which is routinely taught in introductory cognitive psychology courses, is based entirely on pure-list between-subjects designs in which memory performance is equal for intentional and incidental learning groups. In the current 11 experiments, participants made semantic judgements about each word in a list but they had to remember only words presented in a specific color. We demonstrate that in such mixed-list designs there is a substantial difference between intentionally and incidentally learned items. The first four experiments show that this finding is independent of the remember cue onset relative to the semantic judgment. The remaining seven experiments test alternative explanations as to why intent only matters in mixed-list designs but not in pure-list designs-inhibition of incidentally learned items, output interference, selective relational encoding, or selective threshold-shifting. We found substantial support for the threshold-shifting account according to which the intent to remember boosts item-context associations in both mixed- and pure-list designs; however, in pure-list between-subjects designs, participants in the incidental learning group can use a lower retrieval threshold to compensate for the weaker memory traces. This led to more extralist intrusions in incidental learning groups; incidental learning groups also showed a source memory deficit. We conclude that intent always matters for long-term learning, but that the effect is masked in traditional between-subjects designs. Our results suggest that researchers need to rethink the role of intent in long-term memory. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Correction to: Why lower educated people are more likely to cast their vote for radical right parties: Testing alternative explanations in The Netherlands

Correction to: Why lower educated people are more likely to cast their vote for radical right parties: Testing alternative explanations in The Netherlands

The Dynamics of Conflict and Diplomacy in Asia

The Dynamics of Conflict and Diplomacy in Asia Prashanth Parameswaran (bio) Though the observation attributed to Winston Churchill that "to jaw-jaw is better than to war-war" is often quoted by officials today to express a preference for peace over war as separate outcomes, the complex interactions between diplomacy and conflict are still far from fully understood.1 In The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, Oriana Skylar Mastro offers an insightful treatment of the important but underexamined question of what drives warring parties to pursue diplomacy. Mastro argues that calculations about strategic costs—specifically, interpretations of weakness on the part of the enemy ("adverse inference") and how the enemy may change its strategy in response to that interpretation ("strategic capacity")—drive the extent of willingness on the part of states to talk to the enemy. Mastro's original framework for explaining wartime diplomatic posture provides a useful window into how states calculate the costs of conversation during war and generates clear and specific predictions for testing against alternative explanations. The four main cases examined in the book—China in the Korean War, China in the Sino-Indian War, India in the Sino-Indian War, and North Vietnam in the Vietnam War—proceed clearly, with keen attention to various decision points within these conflicts as well as to how they affect the timing and conditions for continuities and changes in diplomatic postures. The clearly defined case selection criteria Mastro adopts upfront does leave out some episodes of conflict in Asia during the Cold War, including the India-Pakistan conflicts and the Sino-Vietnamese War. But the four episodes examined in the book do nonetheless represent significant and diverse cases, with variation in regime type, relative capabilities, [End Page 174] and diplomatic posture while also controlling for regional effects and international conditions by restricting the cases to a twenty-year period (p. 31). The additional explorations of the United States in both the Korean War (pp. 56–60) and the Vietnam War (pp. 122–24) are also useful in extending the argument, even if the level of detail provided is much less than in the four primary case studies. Overall, the book makes a persuasive and nuanced case for the explanatory power of the costly conversations thesis in these four episodes and three wars. While Mastro's wartime diplomatic posture framework itself initially draws a clear distinction between low and high strategic costs and a dichotomy between open and closed diplomatic postures, the exploration of the cases themselves repeatedly acknowledges the complexity that is evident to those familiar with these dynamics. This includes China's hedging of its bets even as it moved to an open diplomatic posture during the Korean War (pp. 49–51) and the limited openness that India displayed during the Sino-Indian War even as its behavior still fit the definition of a closed diplomatic posture (p. 95). The book also engages with alternative explanations thoroughly in each of the four cases. As Mastro herself acknowledges, other accounts do place greater weight on the role of rationalist, ideational, domestic, and international factors in aspects of each case, which is no surprise given the involvement of outside powers in all three wars as well as the role of dominant personalities such as Mao Zedong and Jawaharlal Nehru. The book's approach of isolating and then testing alternative explanations against the evidence utilized has value in this respect, even if disagreements are likely to persist over important aspects, such as the extent to which internal politics implicitly shaped Nehru's decision-making during the Sino-Indian War or the inextricable link made in some accounts between domestic and international considerations in Mao's "continuous revolution" during the Korean War.2 For the most part, Mastro makes a convincing case that these other factors played a supporting but not dominant role in specific decisions that affected continuities and changes in wartime diplomatic posture. The book also raises questions about how the argument could be further tested. For instance, although the strategic logic of the costly conversations thesis may not be time-bound, more recent cases could help test the [End Page 175] argument in contemporary settings...

Democracy Misunderstood: Authoritarian Notions of Democracy around the Globe

AbstractAn intriguing phenomenon consists in the fact that widespread support for democracy coexists in many countries with the persistent absence of democracy itself. Addressing this phenomenon, we show that in most places where it exists people understand democracy in ambiguous ways, such that “authoritarian” notions of what democracy means mix with—and even overshadow—liberal notions, in spite of the contradiction between these two notions. Underlining this contradiction, our evidence shows that authoritarian notions of democracy question the authenticity of liberal notions when both are endorsed conjointly. Worse, the evidence further suggests that authoritarian notions reverse the whole meaning of support for democracy, indeed indicating support for autocracy instead. Arguably, this reversal in the meaning of support for democracy lends legitimacy to authoritarian rule, which helps to explain where autocracy endures. Testing alternative explanations of authoritarian notions of democracy, we find that emancipative values are most influential, exerting a two-fold “enlightening” effect in (a) making people recognize the contradiction between liberal and authoritarian notions of democracy and (b) turning them against authoritarian notions. In a nutshell, the prospects of democracy are bleak where emancipative values remain weak.

Understanding the Rise of Born-Again Catholics in the United States: The Role of Educational Attainment

Having a “born-again” experience has historically been a marker of sectarian or evangelical Protestantism. Yet the percentage of American Catholics reporting a born-again experience has nearly doubled in the past few decades—from 14% in 2004 to 27% in 2016—a much faster increase than that of evangelicals or any other religious group. How do we explain the disproportionate rise of born-again Catholics? Drawing on data from the 2004–2016 waves of the General Social Survey, this research note tests four potential mechanisms: (1) evangelicals converting to Catholicism; (2) born-again Catholics immigrating to the US; (3) evangelical-to-Catholic diffusion due to growing conservative-political alliances; and (4) having a born-again experience (both an indicator of sectarian religious piety and loose affiliation with more standard Catholic self-perceptions) is becoming more common among Catholics with less formal education. After testing alternative explanations, we show that reporting a born-again experience has increased almost solely among Catholics without a college degree. This suggests that the born-again experience is increasing primarily among those Catholics who tend to be more marginalized within society at large (potentially making sectarian religious experiences like being “born-again” more attractive) and less versed in more mainstream identity-markers of their own religious tradition.

Basal cortisol’s relation to testosterone changes may not be driven by social challenges

Multiple studies show a negative correlation between basal cortisol and testosterone changes in the presence of competition and social-evaluative stressors. These negative associations are proposed to be derived from psychological responses to competition and social-evaluative stress. However, we argue that the association between basal cortisol and testosterone change may instead be a statistical consequence of positively associated variables. In this paper, we present a mathematical rationale for this alternative explanation and examples from two studies that are consistent with this alternative explanation. Both studies show that the associations between basal cortisol and testosterone change have covariance patterns consistent with this alternative possibility. We conclude that the often-found positive association between basal cortisol and basal testosterone opens the door for alternative explanations of the basal cortisol-testosterone change association rooted in the patterns of associations between hormones measured over time. We also suggest future research directions and methods for testing alternative explanations.

Testing alternative explanations for common responses to conceptual questions: An example in the context of center of mass

It can be useful to examine previous empirical results of student performance through the lens of new ideas that emerge within physics education research.

Choose to Lose: Health Plan Choices from a Menu with Dominated Option*

Abstract We examine the health plan choices that 23,894 employees at a U.S. firm made from a large menu of options that differed only in financial cost-sharing and premium. These decisions provide a clear test of the predictions of the standard economic model of insurance choice in the absence of choice frictions because plans were priced so that nearly every plan with a lower deductible was financially dominated by an otherwise identical plan with a high deductible. We document that the majority of employees chose dominated plans, which resulted in excess spending equivalent to 24% of chosen plan premiums. Low-income employees were significantly more likely to choose dominated plans, and most employees did not switch into more financially efficient plans in the subsequent year. We show that the choice of dominated plans cannot be rationalized by standard risk preference or any expectations about health risk. Testing alternative explanations with a series of hypothetical-choice experiments, we find that the popularity of dominated plans was not primarily driven by the size and complexity of the plan menu, nor informed preferences for avoiding high deductibles, but by employees’ lack of understanding of health insurance. Our findings challenge the standard practice of inferring risk preferences from insurance choices and raise doubts about the welfare benefits of health reforms that expand consumer choice.

Moral Wiggle Room Reverted: Information Avoidance is Myopic

We use a range of dictator game experiments to investigate why people avoid information. Dictators in our experiment know their own payoffs and can choose whether to learn the payoffs of the recipient. We vary whether dictators can learn the recipient's payoff before or after they are presented with their self-interested action. We find that dictators are more likely to avoid information when they do not yet know their self-interested action, and consequently act more selfishly in this case. These results go against two popular explanations of information avoidance: self-image and default effects. We study and test alternative explanations such as wishful thinking, cognitive dissonance, and attention and find support for the latter.

Why lower educated people are more likely to cast their vote for radical right parties: Testing alternative explanations in The Netherlands

We address the relationship between educational attainment and radical right voting (i.e., voting for the PVV) in the Netherlands. We tested whether lower educated people are overrepresented among the electorate of the PVV – as often found in earlier research – and considered underlying explanations for this relationship. Using data derived from the Religion in Dutch Society (SOCON, 2011/2012) survey, we were able to empirically test a set of innovative mediators (e.g., interethnic contact, euroscepticism, associational involvement and social trust) simultaneously next to theoretically well-established mediators (e.g., perceived ethnic threat, nationalistic attitudes and authoritarianism). Our results indicated that lower educated people are more likely to cast their vote for the PVV than higher educated people, due to their level of perceived ethnic threat, anti-Muslim attitudes and authoritarianism. Using bootstrapping, only ethnic threat perceptions turned out to significantly mediate the relationship between educational attainment and radical right voting, ruling out many other explanations. Our findings underline the importance of precluding spurious influences when addressing radical right voting and show that radical right parties’ emphasis on the economic and cultural threats that immigrants would pose for Western societies seems to bear fruit in terms of mobilizing lower educated people, at least among the Dutch electorate.

Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among non-Hispanic whites. Findings have important implications for EJ research and practice in Miami and elsewhere.

Contract Enforcement and Investment: A Systematic Review of the Evidence

Summary This “systematic review” focuses on the empirical research that evaluates the causal link between contract enforcement and investment. The evidence available in a variety of academic media, reviewed with established procedures, provides some but weak support for the existence of such link. During 1990–2010 we only found 19 independent studies that empirically test the relationship, and only one that directly examines the effects of an actual institutional reform. Few of the studies test alternative explanations, perform robustness checks, or critically assess the findings. In sum, the broadly accepted hypothesis of direct causation is still awaiting strong empirical backing.

Religious decline in the 20th century West: testing alternative explanations

Retrospective questions from recent surveys let us estimate rates of church attendance among children and their parents in ten Western democracies throughout most of the 20th century. We combine these time series with standard sources to test competing theories of religious change. Although our attendance estimates affirm the prevalence of religious decline, our statistical tests offer no support for traditional theories of secularization (which link decline to changes in income, education, industrialization, urbanization, and family life). Nor can we attribute much of the observed decline to growth in the welfare state. But increased school spending by governments does reduce church attendance, and this effect is not the result of greater educational attainment. In shaping the content of schooling, governments may strongly influence long-run religious trends.

Testing Alternative Explanations for the Associations Between Parenting and Adolescent Suicidal Problems.

Although studies have established associations between parenting characteristics and adolescent suicidality, the strength of the evidence for these links remains unclear, largely because of methodological limitations, including lack of accounting for possible child effects on parenting. This study addresses these issues by using autoregressive cross-lag models with data on 802 adolescents and their parents across 5 years. Observed parenting behaviors predicted change in adolescent suicidal problems across one-year intervals even after controlling for adolescents' effects on parenting. Nurturant-involved parenting continued to demonstrate salutary effects after controlling for adolescent and parent internalizing psychopathology: over time, observed nurturant-involved parenting reduced the likelihood of adolescent suicidal problems. This study increases the empirical support implicating parenting behaviors in the developmental course of adolescent suicidality.

Organisation of R&D departments as determinant of innovation: testing alternative explanations

This study sheds light on understanding the effect of two organisational variables, formalisation and communication, on innovation. The prevailing belief that formalisation hinders innovation while communication fosters it seems too simplistic. Therefore, we explore two possible explanations in such relationships: (1) the effect of organisational variables on innovation may be conditioned by the type of innovation (radical vs incremental) and (2) the possibility to find a curvilinear, inverted U-shaped relationship, instead of linear, between these two organisational variables and innovation. This empirical study has been undertaken in R&D departments, considering a sample of Spanish companies belonging to different innovative industries. The results show that the relationship between formalisation and innovative performance is negative when innovation radicalness is low, while it is positive when radicalness is high. On the contrary, the relationship between communication and innovative performance is linear and positive. The existence of a curvilinear relationship, then, could not be demonstrated.

Motivating grandparental investment

AbstractWhat makes the question of grandparental investment so very interesting is trying to tease out the underlying motivations. Grandparental investment is variable and grandparental altruism, if it exists at all, is also variable. Neither evolutionary theory nor rational choice theory has an easy time explaining this variation, and insight is further impeded by the absence of any compelling empirical studies designed for the purpose of testing alternative explanations of variations in grandparental investment.

Incorporating Network Externalities into the Technology Acceptance Model*

Research on network externalities has identified a number of product categories in which the market performance of an innovation (e.g., unit sales and revenues) is an increasing function of that innovation's installed base and the availability of complementary products. Innovation scholars have attributed these findings to the positive impact of network externality variables on consumer perceptions of innovation attributes. This paper provides the first empirical examination of these perceptual linkages by extending the Technology Acceptance Model to include consumer perceptions of network externality variables. The authors hypothesize that, when direct and indirect network externalities exist, consumer purchase intentions and consumer perceptions of an innovation's usefulness and ease of use will positively reflect perceptions of installed base size and the availability of complementary products. To test this reasoning, the authors developed new measures of consumer perceptions of network externality variables. These measures were incorporated into a survey that explored the attitudes in Japan of potential adopters toward digital music (DM) players at an early stage in the product life cycle. Findings reveal a direct positive relationship between ease of use and the perceived availability of digital music. The authors also find positive and significant relationships between both purchase intention and perceived usefulness and (1) the perceived size of the DM player installed base and (2) the perceived availability of digital music. An application of the Baron‐Kenny test for mediating variables reveals that (1) ease of use partially mediates the relationship between the perceived availability of digital music and perceived usefulness and (2) perceived usefulness partially mediates the relationship between the perceived availability of digital music and purchase intention. The research has important implications for future research on new product adoption and for the management of innovations that involve network externalities. The conceptual model provides a framework for testing alternative explanations of observed variations in the impact of network externalities within and across product categories. The empirical analysis provides guidance for managers who wish to manage the impact of network externalities on adoption. In addition to stimulating the size of the installed base and the variety of complementary products, executives must also manage consumer awareness of network externality variables and consumer understanding of the relationship between those variables and innovation attributes. Finally, traditional adoption models link consumer adoption decisions to perceptions of innovation attributes. The findings provided here imply that predictive accuracy of these models can be improved by including consumer perceptions of network externality variables.