Terrorist Radicalization Research Articles

The 2019 Christchurch terror attack: an assessment of proximal warning behaviors

ABSTRACT The Christchurch terror attack in March 2019 was a pivotal incident in the recent history of right-wing terrorism. Utilizing eight proximal warning behaviors from the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), this article provides a qualitative analysis of the attacker’s behavior following the formation of his terrorist intent. Events and activities were coded against the eight warning behaviors and assigned a date where known, thereby creating a comprehensive chronology of events commencing from January 2017 up to the time of the attack. Five insights of theoretical and operational relevance when utilizing proximal warning factors emerge from the analysis: timing; the impact of security awareness; the interplay between factors; the effect of image management; and the social connectedness of lone actors. This study adds to the growing body of empirical evidence supporting the efficacy of the TRAP-18 as an instrument through which to analyze the behavior and mindset of lone actor terrorists. It provides further insights to inform the process of person of interest prioritization among counter-terrorism investigators and contributes to academic knowledge of threat assessment.

Case analysis: Application of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol–18 to the perpetrator of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school shooting in Parkland, Florida.

Case analysis: Application of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol–18 to the perpetrator of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school shooting in Parkland, Florida.

Conspiracies Gone Wild: A Psychiatric Perspective on Conspiracy Theory Belief, Mental Illness, and the Potential for Lone Actor Ideological Violence

ABSTRACT Conspiracy theory belief (CTB) has been increasingly recognized as a driving force of extremist violence. This paper provides a psychiatric perspective on the phenomenon of CTB-driven violence in an effort to bridge the gap between psychiatry and terrorism studies. First, it makes a case for the growing relevance of CTB to ideologically-motivated violence and lone actor violence in particular. Next, acknowledging common themes of shadowy forces, clandestine plots, and malevolent motives, it argues that CTB can be reliably disentangled from delusional belief and examines the association between mental illness and terrorism with a critical and skeptical eye. Finally, after reviewing the association between CTB and terrorist radicalization within existing models from psychiatry and terrorism studies, it outlines five stages of ideological commitment to characterize the link between CTB and the perpetration of ideological violence. Rather than alternately “explaining” terrorism on the basis of mental illness or “blaming” it on ideological extremism depending on biased attributions, modeling ideological commitment through a normalizing cognitive and socio-epistemic framework can facilitate a less stigmatizing understanding of the link between CTB and ideologically-motivated violence.

Mitigating or exacerbating the root causes of violence?: critically analysing the role of USAID in terrorism prevention

ABSTRACT In 2009, a USAID-commissioned report examined the social, economic, and personal contexts that have incited political violence, such as military intervention, economic deprivation, the denial of civil rights, and repeated foreign interference. Although the report acknowledges how these formative contexts give rise to violence, the psychologising language of extremism has led to USAID’s development of antiterrorism approaches aimed at interrupting the psychological, cultural, and theological pathologies perceived to be located within individual actors, rather than the material conditions that incite armed resistance. This article explores how the concept of terrorist radicalisation has informed antiterrorism programming undertaken by the development sector and has exacerbated, not mitigated, the root causes of political violence in Somalia and the Somali diaspora. Given these outcomes, I offer concluding thoughts on how we might recentre the material conditions in which violence circulates to consider alternative approaches to violence prevention efforts in the development sector.

The feasibility and utility of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18): A review and recommendations.

The feasibility and utility of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18): A review and recommendations.

Application of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) to the case of the Army-Navy recruiting center attacker in Little Rock, Arkansas

ABSTRACT We applied the path to intended violence (PTIV) [Calhoun, F. S., & Weston, S. W. (2003). Contemporary threat management: A practical guide for identifying, assessing, and managing individuals of violent intent. Specialized Training Services] model and the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18; [Meloy, J. R. (2017). The TRAP-18 manual version 1.0. Washington, DC: Global Institute of Forensic Research]) to study the case of a lone-actor jihadist who carried out a fatal shooting at a joint Army-Navy recruiting center in Little Rock, Arkansas, on 1 June 2009. The PTIV model examines incidents using six progressive stages: grievance; violent ideation; researching and planning; preparation; probing and breaching; and attack [Calhoun, F. S., & Weston, S. W. (2003). Contemporary threat management: A practical guide for identifying, assessing, and managing individuals of violent intent. Specialized Training Services]. The TRAP-18 is a structured professional judgment tool and comprises 18 behavior-based warning signs for terror incidents. The findings from the retroactive application of the TRAP-18, in this case, show that in the week before the attack, the perpetrator exhibited 5 of the 8 proximal warning behaviors and 5 of the 10 distal warning behaviors. The retroactive application of the TRAP-18 and PTIV to cases of targeted violence assists with identifying a timeline of behaviors, which in turn provides insight into the pathway to violence and warning signs that someone may be a threat of violence.

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol-18 (TRAP-18) in Australia: face validity, content validity, and utility in the Australian context

ABSTRACT Efforts to develop scientifically rigorous and operationally relevant research on the assessment of individuals who present as at risk of radicalisation to violent extremism and/or grievance-fuelled violence remain underdeveloped. The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) has been used across some jurisdictions in Australia to assess whether individuals are radicalising to violent extremism. A number of research publications suggest that the TRAP-18 may provide a valid assessment in radical individuals and may also have some predictive power to identify individuals who escalate to violence. However, to date, there has been no formal assessment of the usability of the TRAP-18. That is, it’s effectiveness in its aims (face validity), or user agreement of included factors (content validity). This work attends to this, and conducts empirically informed, practitioner-oriented research to examine whether the TRAP-18 is a valid and practical assessment tool for the CVE arena across Australia. We conduct a number of focus groups with both practitioners and academic experts. Overall, the results highlight that the TRAP-18 shows promise for use in Australia.

Envy and extreme violence

AbstractEnvy is an emotion capable of producing distorted perceptions and cognitions. Intense envy is associated with adverse states such as shame, depression, inferiority, isolation, anxiety, paranoia, and even violent criminal behavior. The false logic of envy asserts that one has an unfavorable disadvantage, while obscuring the relative nature of advantage, so that the other appears enhanced while one feels diminished. This position generates resentment toward the other. There may come a point at which the envious person's goal is to harm the other's ability to enjoy the perceived advantages—the wish to destroy goodness as formulated by Melanie Klein. The psychodynamics are discussed by which destructive envy produces or enhances a persecutory mindset and desire for revenge so powerful that lethal violence is chosen as an option. The concepts ofobliterative envyandpseudo‐spiritual transformationare introduced, and forensic case examples are used to demonstrate how envy produces persecutory cognitions and facilitates the desire to “obliterate” what is perceived as an unjust, intolerable reality. This psychodynamic process follows an instructive pattern that may benefit forensic and other clinical mental health professionals, as well as practitioners of the increasingly recognized specialty of threat assessment and violence risk mitigation. To this end, the proximal and distal risk indicators of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‐18), a validated structured professional judgment instrument for assessing the risk of lone actor terrorist attacks, are identified that correlate with the stages of progression toward obliterative envy and pseudo‐spiritual transformation.

Modeling the Process of School Shooters Radicalization (Russian Case)

Research on radicalization became relevant to the study of terrorism and violent extremism just two decades ago. The accumulated empirical data on terrorism have led researchers and experts to understand that radicalization is a predictor of violent actions by terrorists, violent extremists, and lone actors. Violent incidents committed by school shooters are not terrorist crimes, but there is good reasons for inclusion as terrorist crimes since they have similar mechanisms. The article aims to create a conceptual model of school-shooter radicalization and determine the distinguishing features of the process. The paper presents a theoretical and methodological base of content analysis concepts, political models, and terrorist radicalization on the different levels of study. Based on the content analysis results, we identify the significant gaps in the research field, consider the radicalization phenomenon in detail, substantiated the qualitative aspects of the school shooters radicalization, and propose a conceptual scheme. Psychological, behavioral, cognitive aspects of the school shooters radicalization reflect a holistic picture of the relationship between the process phases and changes in the parameters of the object’s state. The aspects of radicalization and this phenomenon’s qualitative properties are interpreted as the determinants of the conceptual model. The model includes five stages, each of which is considered to be one of the components for the formation and acceptance of the idea of a violent way to solve a problem, but certainly do not act individually as the only component that leads to the actual implementation of the incident of a school shooting. An in-depth study of online social connections and warning signs, mobilization factors, behavioral trajectories, and imitation mechanisms can help scientists understand why school shooters are increasingly motivated to use violent means to achieve personal goals. We have outlined the possibilities and prospects of the model’s application and directions for future research.

Chapter 1 – Homegrown Terrorist Radicalization: The Toronto 18 in Comparative Perspectives

Canadian concern with the domestic threat of religious terrorism came of age with the arrest of the members of the Toronto 18 in 2006. This chapter seeks to increase our understanding of this case by placing it in comparative perspective in three ways. First, by arguing that the Toronto 18 represents one of the purest instances of so-called “homegrown terrorism.” Second, by comparing the data available on the ten adults convicted with the data available on similar terrorists in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Findings are examined for age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, education, occupations, criminality, mental health, and family and religious background. Third, insights from two recent and comprehensive theories of the process of radicalization, Lorne Dawson’s “social ecology model” and Arie Kruglanski et al.’s “3 N model” are used to make better sense of what happened and why. In the end, however, much remains unclear because we still lack the appropriate data.

Under what conditions do lay people and health professionals accept a breach of doctor-patient confidentiality regarding a patient with signs of terrorist radicalization?

IntroductionConfidentiality is crucial to the establishment of a strong patient-physician relationship. However, certain situations create a dilemma for the physician who is faced with the choice of either respecting medical confidentiality or protecting others from a serious risk of violence. ObjectiveThis study aimed to observe how lay people and health professionals assessed the acceptability of breaching confidentiality when a physician is confronted to a patient showing signs of terrorist radicalization. MethodA total of 228 participants (174 from the general population and 54 health professionals) judged the acceptability of 54 scenarios which were constructed through the orthogonal combination of 4 factors frequently mentioned in the literature: presence of a “Psychiatric disorder”; “Signs of radicalization”; “Projects of violence”; “Collegiality”. Variance and cluster analyses were performed on all the raw data. ResultsResults showed that all factors influenced the judgment of participants but that “Psychiatric disorders” had a weaker impact. Five clusters were identified: “Favorable if collegiality” (n=23); “Favorable to breach confidentiality” (n=77); “Unfavorable to breach confidentiality” (n=26); “Sensitive to all factors” (n=71); “Favorable if violence” (n=31), respectively with mean ratings of 5.87, 8.42, 3.64, 6.30 and 7.16, on an acceptability scale of 0–10. ConclusionThe importance that the great majority of participants attribute to these factors indicates that they influence their judgments in this specific context.

Effectiveness of Seismically Resistant Braced Frames to Blast Loading

The increment in the tally of terrorist radicalisation from the past time has exhibited that the consequence of blast loads on structures is a crucial matter that should be taken into cogitation. This paper considers the effect of blast load on seismically designed framing systems namely Moment Resisting Frame (MRF), Concentric Braced Frame (CBF), Eccentric Braced Frame (EBF) and Buckling Restraint Braced Frame (BRBF). The bracings are one of the efficient lateral load resisting systems and their behaviour is observed under the blast loading. The burst load is estimated to be an unconfined surface burst explosion on front face of the structure. Comparative analysis of storey displacement among different framing systems is performed. Failure of members is studied through the analysis of plastic hinge formation. The results indicate that braced frames perform better when exposed to such kind of impact load. Buckling Restraint brace (BRB) exhibited higher level of resistance to blast loading due to its ability to yield in both compression and tension.

DEFINITION OF TERRORISM AND EU COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY

The article dwells on the problem of the definition of terrorism. This term, though usually commonly understandable, is a legal term, the definition of which is not yet universally adopted. The threat of terrorism, taking upon different forms, is always relevant and the efforts to contain it continue. Thus the definition of the phenomenon and its elements is crucial in such efforts. The analysis is relevant as internationally this term is still not defined in one universal legally binding document and there are questions on its exact scope. The article explains two elements that are usually considered essential in defining terrorism. Furthermore, the article dwells on the EU efforts to contain the threat and in particular on its efforts to prevent terrorism – that is, actions taken to counter terrorist radicalisation.

PROTOCOL: Multiagency programmes with police as a partner for reducing radicalisation to violence.

Violent radicalisation is a complex problem, complicated by the lack of a clear terrorist profile and variation in the risk factors that predict violent extremism across individuals and groups (Campelo, Oppetit, Neau, Cohen, & Bronsard, 2018; Carlsson et al., 2020; Desmarais, Simons‐Rudolph, Brugh, Schilling, & Hoggan, 2017; Wolfowicz, Litmanovitz, Weisburd, & Hasisi, 2019). While models of understanding radicalisation vary (Borum, 2015; Christmann, 2012; Desmarais et al., 2017; Horgan, 2008; Koehler, 2017; Kruglanski, Belanger, & Gunaratna, 2019; Sarma, 2017), it is broadly defined as the process by which a person adopts extremist views and moves towards committing a violent act (Irwin, 2015; Jensen, Atwell Seate, & James, 2018). Radicalisation has been linked with individual and group engagement in terrorist attacks against innocent civilians (Wilner & Dubouloz, 2010), as well as individuals entering conflict zones to join formal extremist groups to engage in violent combat (Lindekilde, Bertelsen, & Stohl, 2016). As a result, radicalisation has become a key focus for counterterrorism and violence prevention interventions. The complex and varied nature of individuals' progression from radicalisation to violence presents challenges for designing and evaluating appropriate interventions and policy responses (Hafez & Mullins, 2015; Helmus et al., 2017; Horgan & Braddock, 2010; Horgan, 2008; Jensen et al., 2018; Kruglanski et al., 2019). This level of complexity has driven national counterterrorism policy agendas to adopt intersectoral and multiagency responses that aim to address various radicalisation processes and risks (Beutel & Weinberger, 2016). These multiagency responses often involve partnerships and collaborations between various different agencies and entities (Hardy, 2018), such as governmental agencies, private businesses, community organisations and service providers.

Application of the TRAP-18 Framework to U.S. and Western European Lone Actor Terrorists

The purpose of this study is to examine the feasibility and relevance of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol-18 (TRAP-18), an investigative framework to identify those at risk of lone actor terrorism. Using public information, we rated TRAP-18 items for 35 U.S. and 38 European jihadism-inspired lone actors (total N = 77). Results reveal challenges completing the TRAP-18 using public information: only four of 18 items (Pathway, Identification, Personal Grievance, Framed by Ideology) were rated present more often than absent or unknown. Findings suggest greater relevance of TRAP-18 items to U.S. lone actors, who had a higher average number of items rated present.

Islamic Terrorist Radicalization through Online Jihadist Magazines

This study is a conceptual analysis of the role that online jihadist magazines play in the process of Islamic terrorist radicalization. This topic is essential because it demonstrates how successful jihad propagandists have been at finding new ways to radicalize new and potential recruits—often a young target audience—into the Salafist-jihadist doctrine. The four specific magazines examined are Al-Qaeda’s Inspire, ISIS’s Dabiq and Rumiyah, and Al-Shabaab’s Gaidi Mtaani. These units of analysis were selected because they remain the most influential online magazines in the jihadist world today. An important conclusion is that, although Islamic terrorist radicalization still happens offline (through face-to-face meetings, group communication, or various rituals), internet content that promotes jihadism can yield equally damaging consequences in the real-world environment, as demonstrated by a myriad of terrorist attacks (in Europe and the United States) that were inspired by those online magazines.

Pathways toward Jihadism in Western Europe: An Empirical Exploration of a Comprehensive Model of Terrorist Radicalization

ABSTRACT Islamist terror is one of the most terrifying threats worldwide. However, there is no common model about the mechanisms underlying the complex process of radicalization and research is usually undermined by a lack of empirical data. Therefore, we aimed to compose a comprehensive model of radicalization, and test it empirically collecting and analyzing data on Islamist radicals in Western Europe. In Study 1, police professionals assessed seventy-five subjects under investigation for being in the process of radicalization. In Study 2, data from open source news articles about eighty six radical Muslims were evaluated by psychologists. Specific individual preconditions including young age, male gender, migration background, and biographical cuts were consistently found among radicals. Fueling the actual radicalization process, a gradual increase of individual, group and catalyst processes was observed from early (Study 1) to late stages of radicalization (Study 2). These included pursuing individual needs (transcendence, significance, self-esteem, control); processes in the course of a strong group commitment (group identification, prejudice, polarization, perceived group threat, collective emotions, informative influence); and cognitive adaptions to get increasingly comfortable with applying violence (desensitization, dehumanization). The current work may be a solid basis for further empirical investigations and for creating means of prevention and deradicalization.

“The Eyes and Ears on Our Frontlines”: Policing without Police to Counter Violent Extremism

As the US public has grown more concerned about domestic terrorist attacks and the abrogation of civil liberties in the pursuit of national security, law enforcement agencies increasingly have applied the principles of community policing to the problem of homegrown terrorism. This community policing approach has anchored Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) initiatives that mobilize local communities to combat terrorist radicalization and recruitment. To do so, this emerging model has tasked community members and social service providers like teachers and mental health professionals with identifying, reporting, and working with potential terrorists. Drawing from a two-year interpretive qualitative research study of CVE policy making and taking across the United States, I examine these emerging police–citizen practices, paying particular attention to how these new institutional arrangements enhance, rather than rein in, policing powers in the name of national security.

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP-18.

This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non-attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach - multidimensional scaling - to visualize potential clustering (co-occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two-dimensional space show the clustering and co-occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non-attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non-attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational-theoretical model of the TRAP-18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre-offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.

Forensic-psychiatric assessment of the risk of terrorist radicalisation in the mentally ill patient

IntroductionThe forensic-psychiatric assessment of the risk of terrorist radicalisation in the mentally ill patient is of special interest for the evaluation of criminal dangerousness. This particularly relevant in ligh of the recent investigations into so-called lone-wolves, which indicate a high prevalence of mental illness within this type of terrorist. MethodologyAnalysis of the predictive validity of the Terrorist Radicalisation Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) to predict future violent incidents of an extremist nature in a representative sample of 44 patients with severe mental illness in situations of social exclusion and with a prison history. ResultsThe ROC Curves analysis indicated that the total score of TRAP-18 (AUC 1.00, p=.018) has a high predictive validity. ConclusionsTRAP-18 could be a useful tool for assessing the risk of terrorist radicalisation in the mentally ill patient, especially in the group of people with severe mental illness in situations of social exclusion and with a prison record, who have a greater potential risk of terrorist radicalistion as lone-wolves.