Terrorism Literature Research Articles

Does Fiscal Decentralization Mitigate Domestic Terrorism?

Abstract Many countries have embarked on decentralization as a way to mitigate separation tendencies. Even though decentralization could satisfy some separation tendencies, the central government might be unable or unwilling to award the localities the level of decentralization they require to stay in the union. This mismatch may give rise to domestic violence and internal conflict. We propose a simple two-stage model that combines the decentralization and domestic terrorism literature in a single structural model, which can be readily tested using existing data in the disciplines. As long as the actual decentralization level meets the unobserved desired value by the localities, there will be a high likelihood of observing a zero incidence of domestic terrorism. Otherwise, the incidents happen regularly with mitigating effects from decentralization. Our model also accounts for the left-censoring of the terrorism data at zero. We examine our model using 5-year interval panel data of more than 60 countries based on the information for 1970–2019. Our results indicate a strong negative and statistically significant relationship between fiscal decentralization and domestic terrorism events. One percent increase in fiscal decentralization is associated with a two to three percent decline in domestic terrorism incidents. The coefficients of the selection model and domestic terrorism model generally conform to the literature.

The Narrative of terrorism and accountability of reality in a novel (Cue and river dance) / semiotics approach

بات من الضروري التوقف عند علاقة الخطاب الروائي في العراق بقضايا الواقع، ولاسيما قضية الإرهاب، ضمن إطار مقاربة المتن الروائي، ومحاولة فهم علاقة الإرهاب بالأدب وأثرها على النص السردي، إذ نسعى للإجابة على السؤال الآتي: كيف وظف الروائي قضية الإرهاب من خلال تجربته السردية؟
 إنّ البحث في ظاهرة الإرهاب وعلاقتها بالخطاب الروائي يقودنا إلى استقراء النصوص التي ارتبط ظهورها بمرحلة بروز الإرهاب في المجتمع العراقي ؛ لأن ما سجلته هذه النصوص يمثل توثيقامهما لهذه المرحلة ، فضلا عن أنها تحدد موقف الكاتب وإحساسه تجاه ما يحصل. وعليه جاء اختيارنا لرواية (رقصة الجديلة والنهر) لـ وفاء عبد الرزاق لتكون مدونة بحثنا التي تزامن صدورها مع ما يشهده العراق من أحداث إرهابية، لتستمد الدراسة مادتها من الواقع، في محاولة لمساءلة قضاياه الفاعلة، عبر استنطاق النص الروائي وعلى وفق معطيات المنهج السيميائي.

Measuring socio-psychological drivers of extreme violence in online terrorist manifestos: an alternative linguistic risk assessment model

ABSTRACT This paper develops a novel method of assessing the risk that online users will engage in acts of violent extremism based on linguistic markers detectable in terrorist manifestos. A comparative NLP analysis was carried out across fifteen manifestos on a scale from violent terrorist to non-violent politically moderate. We used a dictionary approach to measure the statistical significance of narratives previously identified in terrorism literature in predicting violence. The NLP analysis confirmed our research hypothesis, finding that the linguistic markers of identity fusion (an extreme form of group alignment whereby personal and group identities become functionally equivalent), dehumanising language towards the out-group and violence condoning norms were statistically significantly higher in manifestos of authors who engaged in acts of violent extremism. Building on our prior qualitative text analysis of terrorist manifestos, this study is among the first to offer a statistical analysis of the narrative patterns and associated linguistic markers distilled from terrorist manifestos. Beyond its academic contribution, the assessment framework presented here might assist security and counter-terrorism professionals in using psycholinguistic indicators to estimate the risk that online users will engage in offline violence and to make decisions on internal resource allocation in ongoing investigations.

The importance of cultural and social proximity for the cross-border impacts of terrorist attacks

ABSTRACT Over the past two decades, social science research has repeatedly shown that societies tend to be affected more by a foreign event when it occurs in a geographically, culturally, and/or socially proximate location. The extant terrorism literature, however, has thus far mainly focused on the role played by geographical proximity in the creation of terrorist attacks' cross–border impacts, thereby largely ignoring the possible importance of cultural and social proximity. In this paper, we therefore investigate both whether and why cultural and/or social proximity between an audience country and the locus of a foreign terrorist attack increases the latter's impact on the former. We do this by conducting an in–depth exploratory case study of the impacts of seven foreign terrorist attacks on American public debates about domestic affairs. Overall, we find strong evidence that both cultural and social proximity increased a foreign terrorist incident's impact on American public debates. These findings suggest (1) that the concept of proximity should be more systematically integrated into the terrorism literature and (2) that a broader conception of proximity is needed. On top of this, our study also offers some insight into the possible mechanisms that drive these observed proximity effects.

Modelling Radicalisation: Applying Situational Action Theory to the Christchurch Attacks

The March 2019 Christchurch terror attacks were something of a turning point for both law enforcement agencies in New Zealand and for terrorism studies scholars. The growth of religious terrorism, the rise of right-wing extremism, and the imaginative use of the internet by violent extremists pose new security challenges today. This article examines the merits of a criminological radicalisation model for lone actors of terrorism specific to the New Zealand setting. The article examines the concept of radicalisation in the terrorism literature and argues for a clear distinction between the cognitive and behavioural stages of radicalisation. It analyses some of the unique domestic factors which affect radicalisation in New Zealand and provides a brief threat evaluation of extremism. The article proceeds to identify some of the reasons behind ‘why out of millions of people facing similar conditions, only the few become terrorists’ by applying the Situational Action Theory of Crime to the Christchurch terror attacks. Finally, the article recommends some specific interventions for law enforcement agencies to try and thwart future terrorists.

Fears of cyberterrorism, terrorism, and terrorist attacks: an empirical comparison

ABSTRACT The goals of this study are to identify the determinants of the fear of cyberterrorism and to compare these to the determinants of the fear of terrorism as well as the fear of a terrorist attack. As no empirical study has yet tested what predicts the fear of cyberterrorism, the current research used variables from the fear of terrorism literature to explore the impact of these factors on the fear of cyberterrorism. Based on nationally representative data from the 2018 American Fears Survey (N = 1190), our analytic results indicated that fear of cyberterrorism is a distinct fear when compared to terrorism and terrorist attacks in terms of their predictors, and age and education are significant determinants for fear of cyberterrorism, but not for the two terror-related fears in our sample. Other similarities and differences between the three measures of terror-related fear are also discussed in the study.

A VAR analysis of the effects of Al-Shabaab’s pledge to Al-Qaeda on bombings and fatalities

ABSTRACT Pledging allegiance to a larger terrorist group is assumed to increase activities of religious terrorist groups because of cooperative relationships and further support. In a competing theory, a pledge to another group is viewed as symbolic to motivate a group’s supporters. Taking Al-Shabaab terrorism as a case, the current study tests the extent to which those competing theories are valid for frequencies of bombings and relevant fatalities. Even though Al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda since 2012, the literature lacks an empirical test of whether or not a significant change occurred in Al-Shabaab’s attacks after the pledge. Drawing on data from the Global Terrorism Database results from our vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis indicate that the frequency and lethality of Al-Shabaab’s bombing attacks and fatalities did not change significantly in the post-pledge period. The contributions of our findings to the terrorism literature are discussed and policy implications for counterterrorism efforts are considered.

An Analysis of Terrorist Group Formation, 1860—1969

ABSTRACT A number of new and exciting datasets on terrorist groups have been created in recent years. However, most data have limited temporal coverage. In this article, we explore a dataset of historical terrorist groups formed between 1860 and 1969 to determine which insights from the terrorism literature are generalizable over time. A cursory look into the dataset reveals several trends that have been overlooked by both the qualitative historical terrorism literature and the quantitative contemporary terrorism literature. We also perform an econometric analysis of terrorist group formation to test hypotheses derived from the extant research. Our results show limited support for existing hypotheses, although civil society participation appears consistently associated with terrorist group formation.

Ontological (In)visibility and Cyber Conflict: The Problem of Sight and Vision in Establishing Threat

This paper builds on the work of scholars working on ontological security, cyber security, and computer science to understand the problem of threat assessment and vision before, during, and after cyber-attacks. The previous use of ontological security theory (OST) has been limited because it has relied upon an overly simplistic vision of threat assessment at the international, state, and individual level. While previous scholars have examined the background, latent, or assumed visions of security threats as interpreted by agents and how their conditions do or do not effectively capture the anxieties of populations and practitioners this piece seeks to put these issues in conversation. In conceiving of ‘the state’ and ‘threat’ this piece examines the notion of vision, because as states conceive of threats in terms of terrorism (overt and theatrical) and cyber (covert and private) a mismatch of responses is noted. This piece reads the current cyber security landscape (2009-2019) in the United States through a lens of repeated and rambunctious cyber-threats and attacks and a largely passive response by the US citizenry through OST alongside: (1) the literature on computer science dealing with the concept of ontology, (2) the traditional threat framework found in the terrorism literature around response to threat with a comparison to the cyber-conflict literature, an (3) examination of the interplay between the public and government around the visibility and salience of cyberthreats.

Is resilience a favourable concept in terrorism research? The multifaceted discourses of resilience in the academic literature

ABSTRACT The concept of resilience is frequently found in academic documents describing the favoured solution for how to address the threat of terrorism. Despite this, few attempts have been made to critically examine what resilience means and whether it is a favourable concept in terrorism research. Since multiple researchers in other disciplines have claimed that the resilience concept serves as an umbrella concept for a range of positive attributes, this study investigates the different discourses that resilience in the academic terrorism literature is built upon. The analysis outlines five different discourses in the academic literature that contain different descriptions of what it means to be resilient regarding terrorism. It is concluded that the meaning of terrorism resilience in the academic literature is multifaceted, ambiguous and sometimes contradictory. The positive connotation embedded in the concept of resilience and the absence of a description of what it means not to be resilient is problematic because it turns resilience into a utopian goal rather than a realistic counterterrorism project. Moreover, resilience normalises the view of terrorism as a ubiquitous omnipresent threat and legitimises counterterrorism measures as a positive, depoliticised necessity. Resilience is serving ideological purposes, and thus researchers should not uncritically accept resilience as the solution to the threat of terrorism.

Brothers in Arms: The Phenomenon of Complex Suicide Attacks

ABSTRACT Globally, the spread and use of suicide bombing attacks have become a regular occurrence. Suicide terrorism literature focuses primarily on conventional suicide bombing attacks. However, a growing trend has been observed in the adoption of complex suicide attacks. Using Al-Shabaab as a case study, this paper investigates the phenomenon of complex suicide attacks. We explore the tactical differences of complex suicide attacks vis-à-vis simple attacks in terms of its target goal, discriminative lethality, and delivery method. The paper relies on a uniquely constructed dataset of the group’s suicide operations, employing a variety of data collection techniques. The findings reveal that, inter alia, complex suicide attacks reduce civilian casualties compared to simple suicide attacks. Contrary to the group’s intent and official guidelines to target foreign entities; findings illustrate that domestic targets bear the brunt of most complex suicide attacks. These findings have the potential to contribute to counter-terrorism strategies and be adopted by concerned states in order to effectively protect significant loss of lives and destruction of property resulting from suicide terrorism.

How can the literature inform counter-terrorism practice? Recent advances and remaining challenges

ABSTRACT In 2014 an intense debate over the state of terrorism literature was published. Sageman [2014. The stagnation in terrorism research. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(4), 565–580. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.895649] claimed that the field had stagnated, mainly due to lack of data sharing between government departments that have access to valuable information that could inform our understanding, and researchers who have the skills and expertise to make sense of this. However, others were more positive regarding the literature, highlighting areas where progress has been made [e.g. McCauley, & Moskalenko (2014). Some things We think We've learned since 9/11: A commentary on Marc Sageman's ‘The stagnation in terrorism research'. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(4), 601–606. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.895653; Stern (2014). Response to Marc Sageman's ‘The stagnation in terrorism research'. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(4), 607–613. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.895654; Taylor (2014). If I were you, I wouldn't start from here: Response to Marc Sageman's The stagnation in terrorism research’. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(4), 581–586. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.895650]. Here we re-visit the literature and identify advances that have been made since 2014. We explore ongoing challenges for terrorism researchers and practitioners, and options for ways forward to ensure evidence-based responses to terrorist individuals and groups.

Reexamining the Four Waves of Modern Terrorism: A Territorial Interpretation

Territory is a persistent concern in international politics but is unevenly explored in the terrorism literature. We argue that territory has salience for terrorist actors and apply our argument to Rapoport's influential “four waves” thesis of the modern history of terrorism. By examining the key ideologies and groups associated with each historical era, we find that territory was a crucial element to each wave even when it took on different forms. We conclude by calling for additional concern for territory in terrorism studies, which promises to yield new insights into pressing questions.

Communication (un)savviness and the failure of terrorism: a case of Pakistani terrorist organizations

ABSTRACTThe central hypothesis of this article is that there are a large number of terrorist groups which prolifically employ strategic communication (stratcom), while paradoxically, there are others who markedly underutilize it, and therefore, fail to mobilize support for the professed cause. The decisive determinant for either of the two ends, it is argued, obtains in the intellectual endowment or its banality among the conspiratorial groupings. A case of stratcom by two leading Pakistani Taliban groups – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and TTP – Jammat ul Ahrar – is systematically investigated. The analysis clearly engenders that these terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy, because, they are not only religiously and secularly less informed and increasingly rhetorical but are intellectually far less creative to articulate a people inspired rhetorical vision. The brutalization of the civilians further trivializes their discourses. They have thus largely failed to evoke meaningful social mobilization. Besides further elaborating on the findings, the conclusion reflects on a few limitations of the research, offers input for broadening the research scope of some of the key dimensions of terrorism literature and ends with the discussion on some policy implications.

Towards a Definition of Terrorist Ideology

ABSTRACT While conventional wisdom holds that the ideology espoused by a terrorist organization is somehow related to that organization’s actions, the precise nature of the relationship between these phenomena is hotly debated, with scholarship often yielding contrasting empirical results. We argue that one reason for this divergence in viewpoints and research findings is an inadequate understanding of what ideology actually is and how it relates to terrorism. Indeed, the terrorism literature reveals widely disparate uses of the concept of terrorist ideology. This article endeavors to provide a common framework for approaching ideology in the context of terrorism studies by systematically building a new definition of terrorist ideology from first principles. In so doing, we introduce a definition of terrorist ideology that is logically consistent, has robust theoretical underpinnings, and connects the study of ideology within terrorism to broader disciplinary research traditions regarding ideology. This provides a conceptual foundation from which to examine terrorist ideology in an objective, systematic manner and thereby enables terrorism researchers to more productively investigate important outstanding questions, such as which aspects of an ideology are most relevant to violent behavior.

Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism: An Assessment of 10 Years of Research

This study systematically reviews the Situational Crime Prevention (SCP) and terrorism literature published between 2006 and 2016. We examine several variables related to the backgrounds of authors, publication outlets, methods used, and countries and terrorist groups focused upon in these studies. We also investigate if studies have tested the pillars of terrorism opportunity relating to weapons, targets, tools, and facilitating conditions. We find a strong literature and much support for SCP’s claims in the terrorism context. We highlight some data and method obstacles in fully evaluating SCP’s EVIL DONE, MURDEROUS, and ESEER frameworks and tools pillar, and suggest a need for more multivariate designs. We end by identifying underexplored substantive issues that deserve more attention, such as possibly refining EVIL DONE and to more fully address displacement versus adaptation processes.

Concessions or Crackdown: How Regime Stability Shapes Democratic Responses to Hostage taking Terrorism

A prominent view in the terrorism literature is that democracies make soft targets for terrorists due to their citizenry’s low tolerance for civilian casualties. This study tests this claim in the context of hostage taking terrorism, which is a unique form of violence that coerces the target state into negotiating over its citizens’ lives under public scrutiny. I argue that democratic accountability generates softer responses to hostage crises only in mature democracies, where leaders’ concern over being held accountable for the human costs of a no-concessions policy outweighs the reputational costs of conceding to terrorists’ demands. Using data on government responses to hostage incidents from 1978 to 2005, I find that regime type becomes a significant predictor of target concessions only at higher levels of regime stability. To test the accountability mechanism proposed by theory, I examine the effect of electoral cycles on target response; as expected, while nearing elections soften democratic responses to hostage crises, in general their positive effect on the likelihood of concessions is stronger in consolidated democracies.

Regime Types and Terrorism

AbstractRegime type has opposing effects on terrorism. If a regime constrains the executive branch, then terrorism may be more prevalent. If, however, a regime allows all viewpoints to be represented, then grievances may be held in check, resulting in less terrorism. Regimes that value constituents’ lives and property will also act to limit attacks. We formulate a game-theoretic model, containing a terrorist group and targeted government, that captures these opposing forces and supports a nonlinear relationship between regime type and terrorism. This model indicates how diverse samples in the literature can result in different relationships between regime type and terrorism. Seldom does it support the positive relationship that is prevalent in the terrorism literature. We apply a large variety of empirical techniques to show that regime type has a robust inverted U-shaped impact on various terrorism measures. Foreign policy variables (e.g., alliance with the United States) are not a robust influence on terrorism.

Measuring terrorism

ABSTRACTIn the conceptual literature on terrorism, there is no shortage of answers to the question: “What is terrorism?” Indeed, the terrorism literature has been heavily criticized for a deluge of definitions. And yet the booming quantitative terrorism literature generally examines a narrow set of “what is terrorism?”: how country-level factors explain variation in the number of terrorist attacks. This article demonstrates the variety of ways in which scholars currently operationalize terrorism and compares them to the ways it could be operationalized. I replicate studies using alternative operationalizations of terrorism to examine the consequences of the terrorism literature’s collective bet to focus on attack counts at the country level. Finally, I discuss the implications of the narrow set of operational choices with an eye towards how a greater variety of approaches would produce a more robust research agenda.

Studying Police Files with Grounded Theory Methods to Understand Jihadist Networks

ABSTRACTThis article focuses on a challenge in the current terrorism literature, namely the methodological justification concerning the collection and analysis of empirical data. Lack of detailed methodological accounts of the collection and analysis of the data makes it difficult to evaluate presented findings, especially if these data are confidential or focused on specific aspects of the phenomenon. This article offers an extensive overview of the methodological procedures conducted in a large empirical research project on jihadist networks based on confidential police files (2000–2013), interviews, and trial observations. The article illustrates how grounded theory–based methods can be used to collect and analyze such data and to develop and test new theories in this research field.