Terrestrial Primary Production Research Articles

Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium co‐limitation in terrestrial ecosystems: A global meta‐analysis

Societal Impact StatementNitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium are essential elements for plant growth and are the primary nutrients in commercial fertilizers. However, the extent to which these nutrients individually limit plant growth is still unclear, as is the influence of their interactions. Using a meta‐analysis approach, plant growth was found to be co‐limited by nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate that multiple nutrient additions are primarily additive, with the exception of synergistic effects observed with NP additions on plant growth. These findings are important as they provide a timely and valuable reference for assessing the ecosystem‐scale consequences of increasing nutrient deposition caused by human activities.Summary Numerous field studies and a few meta‐analyses have confirmed that terrestrial primary production is individually or jointly limited by nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Meanwhile, a recent synthesis emphasized that potassium (K) limitation in terrestrial ecosystems is more widespread than previously thought. However, it remains unclear whether N, P, and K co‐limit terrestrial production and how their interactions influence plant growth. Therefore, we conducted a globally comprehensive synthesis of a total 2877 observations to explore the individual and interactive effects of N, P, and K additions on plant growth. We found that N, P, K, NP, NK, PK, and NPK additions significantly increased aboveground biomass production (AGP) by 30.8%, 15.3%, 12.3%, 68.4%, 36.5%, 21.1%, and 78.7%, respectively. The combined addition of multiple nutrients resulted in a larger increase in AGP than a single addition of nutrients. These findings suggested that terrestrial production is widely co‐limited by N, P, and K. However, no significant responses of belowground biomass production (BGP) to nutrient additions were observed. Except for synergistic interactions between N and P additions, the responses of AGP to other pairs of nutrient additions were predominantly additive. This meta‐analysis highlights the importance of multiple‐nutrient limitation in regulating terrestrial primary production while pointing out that non‐additive effects (including synergistic and antagonistic) of multiple‐nutrient additions on terrestrial production are relatively rare.

Evaluating the use of marine subsidies by Arctic foxes without direct coastal access; insights from stable isotopes

The trophic structures of tundra ecosystems are often viewed as a result of local terrestrial primary productivity. However, other resources can be brought in through long-distant migrants or be directly accessible in coastal areas. Hence, trophic structures may deviate from predictions based on local terrestrial resources. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) is a small canid that may use marine resources when available. We used stable isotope values in Arctic fox fur and literature data on potential prey to evaluate Arctic fox summer resource use in a mountain tundra without coastal access. The dietary contribution of local prey, presumably mostly rodents, declined with declining rodent abundance, with a subsequent increased contribution of migratory prey relying on marine resources. Stable isotope values did not differ between this terrestrial area and an area with direct coastal access during years of high rodent abundance, but isotope values during low rodent abundances suggested less marine input than in a coastal population feeding primarily on marine prey. Our study shows that marine resources may be used by animals in areas without any coastal access, and we highlight that such partial coupling of ecosystems must be included in the modeling and assessments of tundra environments.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June–August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST–GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Relationships of primary productivity with anuran abundance, richness, and community composition in tropical streams.

The relationship between primary productivity and diversity has been demonstrated across taxa and spatial scales, but for organisms with biphasic life cycles, little research has examined whether productivity of larval and adult environments influence each life stage independently, or whether productivity of one life stage's environment outweighs the influence of the other. Experimental work demonstrates that tadpoles of stream-breeding anurans can exhibit a top-down influence on aquatic primary productivity (APP), but few studies have sought evidence of a bottom-up influence of primary productivity on anuran abundance, species richness and community composition, as seen in other organisms. We examined aquatic and terrestrial primary productivity in two forest types in Borneo, along with amphibian abundance, species richness, and community composition at larval and adult stages, to determine whether there is evidence for a bottom-up influence of APP on tadpole abundance and species richness across streams, and the relative importance of aquatic and terrestrial primary productivity on larval and adult phases of anurans. We predicted that adult richness, abundance, and community composition would be influenced by terrestrial primary productivity, but that tadpole richness, abundance, and community composition would be influenced by APP. Contrary to expectations, we did not find evidence that primary productivity, or variation thereof, predicts anuran richness at larval or adult stages. Further, no measure of primary productivity or its variation was a significant predictor of adult abundance, or of adult or tadpole community composition. For tadpoles, we found that in areas with low terrestrial primary productivity, abundance was positively related to APP, but in areas with high terrestrial primary productivity, abundance was negatively related to APP, suggesting a bottom-up influence of primary productivity on abundance in secondary forest, and a top-down influence of tadpoles on primary productivity in primary forest. Additional data are needed to better understand the ecological interactions between terrestrial primary productivity, aquatic primary productivity, and tadpole abundance.

Continuity of Global MODIS Terrestrial Primary Productivity Estimates in the VIIRS Era Using Model‐Data Fusion

AbstractThe NASA Terra and Aqua satellites have been successfully operating for over two decades, exceeding their original design life. However, the era of NASA's Earth Observing System may be coming to a close as early as 2023. Similarities between the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard Aqua and Terra, and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors aboard the Suomi NPP, NOAA‐20 and NOAA‐21 satellites enable potential continuity of long‐term earth observational records in the VIIRS era. We conducted a comprehensive calibration and validation of the MODIS MOD17 product, which provided the first global, continuous, weekly estimates of ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual estimates of net primary productivity (NPP). Using Bayesian model‐data fusion, we combined 18 years of tower fluxes with prior data on plant traits and hundreds of field measurements of NPP to benchmark MOD17 and to develop the first terrestrial productivity estimates from VIIRS. The updated mean global GPP (NPP) flux from the future MOD17 Collection 7 product and new VNP17 product for 2012–2018 is 127 ± 2.8 Pg C year−1 (58 ± 1.1 Pg C year−1), which compares well with independent top‐down and bottom‐up estimates. MOD17 and VNP17 depict upward productivity trends over recent decades, with 2000–2018 MOD17 GPP (NPP) rising by 0.47 (0.25) Pg C year−2 but slowing to 0.35–0.44 (0.11–0.13) Pg C year−2 over 2012–2021, with a greater reduction in the NPP growth rate. The new VIIRS VNP17 product has the potential to extend these estimates of global, terrestrial primary productivity beyond 2030.

Floral response to the Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode

The Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE; ca. 234–232 Ma) was characterized by dramatic global temperature and humidity increases, which in many terrestrial settings was accompanied by changes from arid to humid vegetation types. This study reviews current evidence of terrestrial floral composition and distribution during the CPE and analyzes spatial and temporal variation with relation to potential environmental driving mechanisms. Available evidence suggests the CPE was a globally significant event that triggered significant increases in the abundance of ferns and hygrophytes in terrestrial floras and freshwater algae in fluvial and lacustrine settings. These changes ended a long interval of relatively arid terrestrial climatic conditions since the Early Triassic and are linked temporally with eruptions of the oceanic plateau Wrangellia Large Igneous Province (LIP). The massive release of greenhouse gasses including isotopically light CO2 during 3–4 distinct pulses of Wrangellia volcanism appears to have been the main driver of CPE climate change. Each pulse enhanced global atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle and resulted in changes from arid to humid conditions that affected floral abundance and composition. Higher terrestrial primary productivity in humid phases facilitated increased burial of terrestrial organic carbon and led to the recommencement of peat accumulation, ending the coal gap that had persisted since the Earliest Triassic times. Enhanced movement of carbon from the atmosphere through the biosphere into the geosphere may have counteracted the warming effects of Wrangellia volcanic greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately led to the return of a steady climate state that terminated the warm and humid conditions of the CPE.

Towards a General Monitoring System for Terrestrial Primary Production: A Test Spanning the European Drought of 2018

(1) Land surface models require inputs of temperature and moisture variables to generate predictions of gross primary production (GPP). Differences between leaf and air temperature vary temporally and spatially and may be especially pronounced under conditions of low soil moisture availability. The Sentinel-3 satellite mission offers estimates of the land surface temperature (LST), which for vegetated pixels can be adopted as the canopy temperature. Could remotely sensed estimates of LST offer a parsimonious input to models by combining information on leaf temperature and hydration? (2) Using a light use efficiency model that requires only a handful of input variables, we generated GPP simulations for comparison with eddy-covariance inferred estimates available from flux sites within the Integrated Carbon Observation System. Remotely sensed LST and greenness data were input from Sentinel-3. Gridded air temperature data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We chose the years 2018–2019 to exploit the natural experiment of a pronounced European drought. (3) Simulated GPP showed good agreement with flux-derived estimates. During dry conditions, simulations forced with LST performed better than those with air temperature for shrubland, grassland and savanna sites. (4) This study advances the prospect for a global GPP monitoring system that will rely primarily on remotely sensed inputs.

Earlier Precipitation Enhances Dryland Annual Primary Production

AbstractClimate change is causing shifts of precipitation seasonality that is anticipated to cause variations in terrestrial primary production over many parts of the world. However, how vegetation production responds differently to shifting seasonal precipitation timing along bioclimate gradients remains unclear. Here, we used two proxies of primary production, namely gross primary production and sun‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence derived from satellite observations over 2001–2020 to investigate the effects of advanced or delayed precipitation on interannual variations in production along a wide range of aridity gradient and vegetation types in China. We found contrasting responses of primary production between dryland and humid ecosystems. In the dryland, earlier precipitation greatly enhanced annual accumulated production, owing to higher soil moisture during the early growing season that often lasted to the late growing season by lagged effect. However, delayed precipitation depressed production throughout growing season because of the decreased ability of vegetation to absorb and utilize light energy, even though water stress was alleviated during late growing season. Conversely, in the humid region, advanced precipitation led to slight decreases of annual production as a result of combined effects of lower radiation and lagged leaf flush during the early growing season. It is necessary to consider the effects of shifting precipitation seasonality on terrestrial primary production as a driver of changes in carbon uptake capacity, especially in dryland.

Predicting ecosystem productivity based on plant community traits.

With the rapid accumulation of plant trait data, major opportunities have arisen for the integration of these data into predicting ecosystem primary productivity across a range of spatial extents. Traditionally, traits have been used to explain physiological productivity at cell, organ, or plant scales, but scaling up to the ecosystem scale has remained challenging. Here, we show the need to combine measures of community-level traits and environmental factors to predict ecosystem productivity at landscape or biogeographic scales. We show how theory can extend the production ecology equation to enormous potential for integrating traits into ecological models that estimate productivity-related ecosystem functions across ecological scales and to anticipate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to global change.

Trophic connectivity between the terrestrial and marine ecosystems of Malpelo Island, Colombia, evaluated through stable isotope analysis

The trophic dynamics of islands with low terrestrial primary productivity often depend on marine allochthonous inputs from nearby donor habitats. For instance, on Malpelo Island, Colombia (4° 00′ 05.63″ N; 81° 36′ 36.41″ W), the Nazca booby Sula granti affects the productivity and trophic dynamics of the terrestrial ecosystem by delivering nutrients, primary in the form guano, chick carcasses, and eggs. This study evaluated the trophic connectivity between the terrestrial and marine ecosystems of Malpelo Island, Colombia based on the isotopic (δ13C and δ15N) assessment of 403 samples (107 terrestrial and 296 marine) collected between 2017 and 2021. Isospaces were estimated based on δ13C and δ15N values, contribution of terrestrial sources in consumer diets (mixing model), 15 N enrichment in C3 plants, and interactions among environments (overlap). δ13C and δ15N values showed a larger terrestrial isospace (134.7‰2) than the marine isospace (117.2‰2). The mixing model indicated that detritusTerrestrial (median: 30.2%) contributed more to the food web than C3 plants (0.2%), reflecting high δ13CMarine content. The high isotopic overlap (> 60%) between terrestrial and marine isospaces suggests a significant trophic connection between environments. These results show the role of the marine ecosystem on the terrestrial ecosystem and the importance of S. granti regarding nutrient transfer between environments. The conservation of this seabird is essential to maintain the balance of this insular ecosystem. Using stable isotopes, this study was able to reveal trophic relationships between ecosystems associated with small oceanic islands that host large seabird colonies but have low primary productivity.

Alpine and Arctic tundra shrub populations show similar ontogenetic growth trends but differing absolute growth rates and lifespan

The majority of terrestrial primary production is performed by plants, the ontogenetic growth trends of which significantly influence biomass and carbon dynamics. Here, we present a study of ontogenetic trends in primary (apical) and secondary (stem thickening) growth of plants in Arctic (Svalbard, Norway) and alpine (Krkonoše, Czechia) populations of the black crowberry (Empetrum nigrum), the dominant plant species of certain tundra communities. The environmental conditions in alpine areas are more favourable for plant growth than those in the High Arctic, where temperatures are lower, there is less precipitation and soils are shallower, among other differences. These differences were clearly reflected in significant distinctions in absolute growth rates and shrub age between the populations under study. However, we found almost no divergence in ontogenetic growth trends between the populations (based on ring width measurements made from the base to the top of plants, known as serial sectioning). In both populations, primary and secondary stem base growth decrease over the course of ontogeny whereas secondary stem top growth and basal area increment increase. No significant differences in the slope of the trends were found in either primary or secondary stem base growth. Trends of the growth ratio between basal area increment and primary growth revealed neither absolute nor relative differences between the populations. Ontogenetic trends in the shrubs analysed were surprisingly stable despite the prominently dissimilar environmental conditions. Empetrum plants have adapted to the different environments by altering their absolute growth rate only. This adaptation has probably also resulted in the different longevity of plants constituting the study populations, confirming the theory that slower-growing plants live longer. Primary growth and secondary stem base growth seem to be more basic characteristics of plant growth compared to basal area increment and secondary growth at the apex because the latter two seem to be dependent on the absolute growth rate.

Catchment properties as predictors of greenhouse gas concentrations across a gradient of boreal lakes

Boreal lakes are the most abundant lakes on Earth. Changes in acid rain deposition, climate, and catchment land use have increased lateral fluxes of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM), resulting in a widespread browning of boreal freshwaters. This browning affects the aqueous communities and ecosystem processes, and boost emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) CH4, CO2, and N2O. In this study, we predicted biotic saturation of GHGs in boreal lakes by using a set of chemical, hydrological, climate, and land use parameters. For this purpose, concentrations of GHGs and nutrients (organic C, -P, and -N) were determined in surface water samples from 73 lakes in south-eastern Norway covering wide ranges in DOM and nutrient concentrations, as well as catchment properties and land use. The spatial variation in saturation of each GHG is related to explanatory variables. Catchment characteristics (hydrological and climate parameters) such as lake size and summer precipitation, as well as NDVI, were key determinants when fitting GAM models for CH4 and CO2 saturation (explaining 71 and 54%, respectively), while summer precipitation and land use data were the best predictors for the N2O saturation, explaining almost 50% of deviance. Our results suggest that lake size, precipitation, and terrestrial primary production in the watershed control the saturation of GHG in boreal lakes. These predictions based on the 73-lake dataset was validated against an independent dataset from 46 lakes in the same region. Together, this provides an improved understanding of drivers and spatial variation in GHG saturation in boreal lakes across wide gradients of lake and catchment properties. The assessment highlights the need to incorporate multiple explanatory parameters in prediction models of GHGs for extrapolation across the boreal biome.

Tropical forests as drivers of lake carbon burial

A significant proportion of carbon (C) captured by terrestrial primary production is buried in lacustrine ecosystems, which have been substantially affected by anthropogenic activities globally. However, there is a scarcity of sedimentary organic carbon (OC) accumulation information for lakes surrounded by highly productive rainforests at warm tropical latitudes, or in response to land cover and climate change. Here, we combine new data from intensive campaigns spanning 13 lakes across remote Amazonian regions with a broad literature compilation, to produce the first spatially-weighted global analysis of recent OC burial in lakes (over ~50-100-years) that integrates both biome type and forest cover. We find that humid tropical forest lake sediments are a disproportionately important global OC sink of 7.4 Tg C yr−1 with implications for climate change. Further, we demonstrate that temperature and forest conservation are key factors in maintaining massive organic carbon pools in tropical lacustrine sediments.

Contrasting Effects of Nitrogen Addition on Vegetative Phenology in Dry and Wet Years in a Temperate Steppe on the Mongolian Plateau.

Changes in spring and autumn phenology and thus growing season length (GSL) pose great challenges in accurately predicting terrestrial primary productivity. However, how spring and autumn phenology in response to land-use change and nitrogen deposition and underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This study was conducted to explore the GSL and its components [i.e., the beginning of growing season and ending of growing season (EGS)] in response to mowing and nitrogen addition in a temperate steppe on the Mongolia Plateau during 2 years with hydrologically contrasting condition [dry (2014) vs. wet (2015)]. Our results demonstrated that mowing advanced the BGS only by 3.83 days, while nitrogen addition advanced and delayed the BGS and EGS by 2.85 and 3.31 days, respectively, and thus prolonged the GSL by 6.16 days across the two growing seasons from 2014 to 2015. When analyzed by each year, nitrogen addition lengthened the GSL in the dry year (2014), whereas it shortened the GSL in the wet year (2015). Further analyses revealed that the contrasting impacts of nitrogen on the GSL were attributed to monthly precipitation regimes and plant growth rate indicated by the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVmax). Moreover, changes in the GSL and its two components had divergent impacts on community productivity. The findings highlight the critical role of precipitation regimes in regulating the responses of spring and autumn phenology to nutrient enrichment and suggest that the relationships of ecosystem productivity with spring and autumn phenology largely depend on interannual precipitation fluctuations under future increased nitrogen deposition scenarios.

The importance of hydrology in routing terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere via global streams and rivers

SignificanceStream/river carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has significant spatial and seasonal variations critical for understanding its macroecosystem controls and plumbing of the terrestrial carbon budget. We relied on direct fluvial CO2 partial pressure measurements and seasonally varying gas transfer velocity and river network surface area estimates to resolve reach-level seasonal variations of the flux at the global scale. The percentage of terrestrial primary production (GPP) shunted into rivers that ultimately contributes to CO2 evasion increases with discharge across regions, due to a stronger response in fluvial CO2 evasion to discharge than GPP. This highlights the importance of hydrology, in particular water throughput, in terrestrial-fluvial carbon transfers and the need to account for this effect in plumbing the terrestrial carbon budget.

Integrating Aquatic and Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Assess the Net Landscape Carbon Balance of a Highly Erodible Semiarid Catchment

AbstractThe magnitude of the carbon (C) sink due to terrestrial primary production may be overestimated if the C losses through fluvial networks are not properly accounted for. In this study, we hypothesize that terrestrial‐aquatic C transfers represent a major loss of the terrestrial C sink in semiarid catchments. To test the hypothesis, we assessed the net landscape carbon balance (NLCB) of a highly erodible catchment on the semiarid Chinese Loess Plateau by compiling terrestrial net ecosystem productivity (NEP) estimates and aquatic fluxes of downstream C export, emission of CO2 and CH4, and C burial. Our results showed that, despite the severe erosion and strong C mobilization, this catchment was a net C sink (NLCB = 48.3–54.8 Mg C km−2 year−1). Downstream C export at catchment outlet and evasion of CO2 and CH4 only offset terrestrial NEP by 7.7%–8.5% due largely to low flow discharge and small water surface area of the stream network. Furthermore, C burial in reservoirs played a considerable role, reducing an additional 7.5%–8.3% of the NEP. Altogether, approximately 84% of the net terrestrial C production was stored within the catchment. Our study reveals that semiarid catchments with widespread erosion and low terrestrial production remain a net C sink, although the magnitude is lower than those found in other climate zones. Our study further advocates the need to integrate terrestrial‐aquatic C transfer into a comprehensive net C balance accounting at the landscape scale. Ignoring the aquatic C loss will cause biased estimates of the overall C sink strength.

How the Updated Earth System Models Project Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in China under 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming

Three Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were chosen to project ecosystem changes under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming targets in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4.5 W m−2 (SSP245) scenario. Annual terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) was taken as the representative ecological indicator of the ecosystem. Under 1.5 °C global warming, GPP in four climate zones—i.e., temperate continental; temperate monsoonal; subtropical–tropical monsoonal; high-cold Tibetan Plateau—showed a marked increase, the smallest magnitude of which was around 12.3%. The increase was greater under 2 °C of global warming, which suggests that from the perspective of ecosystem productivity, global warming poses no ecological risk in China. Specifically, in comparison with historical GPP (1986–2005), under 1.5 °C global warming GPP was projected to increase by 16.1–23.8% in the temperate continental zone, 12.3–16.1% in the temperate monsoonal zone, 12.5–14.7% in the subtropical–tropical monsoonal zone, and 20.0–37.0% on the Tibetan Plateau. Under 2 °C global warming, the projected GPP increase was 23.0–34.3% in the temperate continental zone, 21.2–24.4% in the temperate monsoonal zone, 16.1–28.4% in the subtropical–tropical monsoonal zone, and 28.4–63.0% on the Tibetan Plateau. The GPP increase contributed by climate change was further quantified and attributed. The ESM prediction from the Max Planck Institute suggested that the climate contribution could range from −12.8% in the temperate continental zone up to 61.1% on the Tibetan Plateau; however, the ESMs differed markedly regarding their climate contribution to GPP change. Although precipitation has a higher sensitivity coefficient, temperature generally plays a more important role in GPP change, primarily because of the larger relative change in temperature in comparison with that of precipitation.

Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests

Abstract. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and its components over HKH for the period 1851–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduced modelled NBP (reduced C sink) is observed from 1986–2015 primarily due to land-use change. However, an increase in NBP is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for the management of the HKH region, in addition to informing strategic decision making and land-use planning, and clarifying policy concerns.

Functional traits predict tree‐level phenological strategies in a mesic Indian savanna

AbstractLeaf phenology influences terrestrial primary production by determining the period of carbon uptake. While dominant leaf habit (evergreen/deciduous) is predictable at large scales based on environmental factors, there is substantial variability in the timing of key events such as leaf flush and senescence at smaller site‐level scales. How much of this variability is explained by species functional traits related to a plant's carbon economy? We monitored leaf phenology for 113 individual trees of eleven dominant species in an Indian mesic savanna. Specifically, we related leaf functional traits and wood density to the (i) timing of leaf flush, leaf maturity, peak canopy, and senescence, (ii) duration of leaf deployment, (iii) duration from start of senescence to leaflessness, and (iv) time to attainment of peak mature canopy following leaf flush. We expected species that use resources conservatively (low specific leaf area (SLA), high leaf dry matter content, low leaf nitrogen, and high wood density) to senesce later and retain their leaves longer. For all species, leaflessness was most pronounced in early dry season and leaf flushing occurred in the late dry season. Species with high leaf carbon and dry matter content showed earlier leaf maturation, attained peak mature canopies sooner, and deployed leaves longer. Species with high SLA, leaf nitrogen, and low wood density showed earlier senescence but relationships were weak. In this savanna, phenology at fine scales was indeed associated with species functional traits relating to carbon investment, but these relationships were strong only when intra‐specific variation in phenology was low.

Biodiversity–productivity relationships are key to nature-based climate solutions

The global impacts of biodiversity loss and climate change are interlinked, but the feedbacks between them are rarely assessed. Areas with greater tree diversity tend to be more productive, providing a greater carbon sink, and biodiversity loss could reduce these natural carbon sinks. Here, we quantify how tree and shrub species richness could affect biomass production on biome, national and regional scales. We find that GHG mitigation could help maintain tree diversity and thereby avoid a 9–39% reduction in terrestrial primary productivity across different biomes, which could otherwise occur over the next 50 years. Countries that will incur the greatest economic damages from climate change stand to benefit the most from conservation of tree diversity and primary productivity, which contribute to climate change mitigation. Our results emphasize an opportunity for a triple win for climate, biodiversity and society, and highlight that these co-benefits should be the focus of reforestation programmes. Exploring how biodiversity and climate change are interlinked, the authors show that limiting warming could maintain tree diversity, avoiding primary productivity loss. Countries with greater climate change economic costs benefit most: a potential triple win for climate, biodiversity and society.