Term Unemployment Research Articles

P1100 A multivariate time-dependent proportional hazard model to predict development of intestinal failure from Crohn’s Disease

Abstract Background Intestinal Failure (IF) is a rare but severe complication of Crohn’s disease (CD). Advancement in therapy has not eliminated incident IF from CD (CDIF), and risk factors for developing IF from CD are not well characterised. The Copenhagen Intestinal Failure Database contains one of the largest, comprehensively described adult CDIF cohort1 from 1973 to 2018, which can be linked with a Danish nationwide CD cohort2 to explore healthcare utilisation patterns associated with developing IF from onset of CD. Methods CDIF patients from Copenhagen Intestinal Failure Database and a nationwide CD cohort without IF were followed from CD diagnosis until IF, death, or censoring on 31/12/2018. Hospital contacts, surgeries, medication use and employment status were extracted from multiple Danish population-based registries. Unplanned hospitalisation or emergency department attendance (inpatient-contact), CD-related abdominal surgery, and stopping work for 6 months or more (in working-age CD patients, excluding full-time study and parental leave) were considered time-dependent covariates and tested for significance (p<0.05) in univariate proportional hazard models. Significant covariates were then modelled together with additional non-time-dependent clinical and demographic variables in multivariate proportional hazard models. Backward variable selection was performed to derive a final predictive model. Results 175 CDIF and 22845 CD patients from whom data was available were followed for 2283.1 and 293536.5 patient-years, respectively. Univariate time-dependent proportional hazard models showed that every instance of unplanned IBD inpatient contact, CD-related abdominal surgery, and stopping work was significantly associated with increased hazard of developing IF, with a hazard ratio of 4.91 (95% CI 3.54-6.80, p<0.001), 29.79 (95% CI 9.70-91.48, p<0.001) and 1.61 (95% CI 1.15-2.26, p=0.005). In multivariate analysis, earlier decade of IBD onset, unplanned IBD inpatient contacts, length of stay of the inpatient contact, CD-related abdominal surgery, complicated surgery, number of previous admissions and surgeries and previous median-long term unemployment increased the rate of developing IF (Table), whereas age and comorbidity level at CD onset, non-IBD inpatient contacts, type of surgery, biologics use, and current employment status were not found to be significantly associated with IF development. Conclusion This is the first study to demonstrate significantly increased risks of developing IF from CD from increased healthcare utilisation patterns.

Vocational Training of Unemployed Citizens: Experience of the European Union countries

Vocational training programs are an effective way to combat unemployment, especially for people with low levels of education. An active employment policy in this direction can help reduce the skills mismatch that often leads to long–term unemployment among people with low education. The effectiveness of these programs depends on the quality of the training provided, the length of the program, and the types of training. A study of foreign experience has shown that programs that provide both theoretical and on–the–job training tend to be particularly effective in improving employment outcomes.

Irregular identification of structural models with nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity

One of the most important empirical findings in microeconometrics is the pervasiveness of heterogeneity in economic behavior (cf. Heckman, 2001). This paper shows that cumulative distribution functions and quantiles of the nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity have an infinite efficiency bound in many structural economic models of interest. The paper presents general and precise conditions to prove such results. The usefulness of the theory is demonstrated with several relevant examples in economics, including, among others, the proportion of individuals with severe long term unemployment duration, Average Marginal Effects (AME) in a correlated random coefficient model without monotonicity, and the distribution and quantiles of random coefficients in linear, binary and the popular semiparametric Mixed Logit model.

Problems and Solutions to alleviate Poverty in Nepal

Poverty is one of the main problems in Nepal. In order to alleviate poverty various attempts have been implemented for poverty reduction. As per the policies of the periodic plan that started six decades ago different programmes are conducted. Both national as well as international organizations are carrying out research activities to alleviate poverty. According to the 9th plan (1997-2002), the percent of population under poverty line was 38 percent which was aimed to reduce to 30 percent as per the 10th plan (2002-2007) but remained unsuccessful. While in the 12th plan (2012-2017) the percent of population under the poverty line was successfully reduced to 25.2 percent. According to the NLSS survey report the percent of population under the poverty line in the year 1995/96, 2003/04 and 2010/11 was 41.8 percent, 30.9 percent and 25.2 percent respectively. With long term economic growth poverty, inequality and unemployment can be eliminated. But it is definitely a challenge. However, the 13th plan (2070/71-2072/73) and 14th plan (2073/74-2075/76) reduced the poverty percent to 21.6 percent and 18.7 percent respectively. Similarly, in the 15th plan (2076/77-2080/81) targeted to reduce the poverty from 18.7 percent to 11.0 percent. Finally, poverty is assumed to be zero by the year 2100/01 (NPC 15th Plan2076/77-2080/81). But this is a big challenge due to the Covid-19 pandemic and its second wave, because Nepalese living below the poverty line are highly vulnerable due to Covid pandemic.

Lifetime Employment in Schizophrenia: Correlates of Developing Long Term Unemployment After Being Employed Before

Challenges in obtaining and sustaining employment are common among people with schizophrenia regardless of their employment history. Although supportive employment services can be effective, few participants report sustaining competitive employment for a meaningful period of time. Participants can also often experience a decline from previous vocational success to chronic unemployment.

Lifetime employment in schizophrenia: correlates of developing long term unemployment after being employed before

ABSTRACT Background Challenges in employment are highly prevalent among people with schizophrenia regardless of their employment history. Although supportive employment can be effective, few participants sustain meaningful competitive employment. Our goal was to identify the correlates of developing sustained unemployment. Methods We examined employment outcomes by comparing clinical, neurocognitive, and social cognitive features in 234 participants with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders across t competitive employment outcomes: currently employed, participants who had never worked for a year, and those who had been employed but developed long-term unemployment. We examined social cognition and neurocognition, as well as positive and negative schizophrenia symptoms, and premorbid functioning and demographic factors. Results We found significant differences in age, race, premorbid functioning, cognitive performance, and social cognition between currently and formerly employed patients. When individual tasks were examined, emotion recognition and verbal working memory performance were the domains differentiating the groups. Older African Americans were over-represented in the formerly employed group. Conclusions There were minimal differences other than age and race between formerly employed patients and those who had never worked. These data suggest the possibility that deterioration in employment outcomes may also co-occur with declines in other abilities. Opportunities and disparities may also be a contributor to re-entering the work force.

The global fiscal response to COVID-19: Risks and repercussions

Governments around the world responded to the COVID19 crisis (CVC) by aggressively deploying fiscal policy to boost health expenditure, income transfers and increased welfare payments, as well as wage subsidies to firms to retain employees to minimize short term unemployment. A fiscal response was in principle both necessary and timely, but the nature of the responses adopted by governments differed markedly around the world. After describing the global macroeconomic impact of the CVC and its effect on budget deficits and public debt levels, this paper critically evaluates the global fiscal response with reference to comparable historical episodes. The analysis suggests some fiscal responses were too expansive and of the wrong form. The paper then highlights the future macroeconomic risks arising from the highly elevated public debt levels the CVC has caused, concluding that fiscal consolidation rather than further fiscal ‘stimulus’ will be needed to address the parlous fiscal legacy of the crisis.

La ley de Okun en Ecuador. Un análisis de cointegración, 2007-2019.

El estudio analiza la ley de Okun para Ecuador durante 2007.I-2019.IV con dos metodologías de cointegración, el método de Johansen & Juselius (1990) y el enfoque Autorregresivo de Rezago Distribuido (ARDL) propuesto por Pesaran & Shin (1995) y Pesaran, Shin & Smith (2001) . Los resultados empíricos indican que en el largo plazo el desempleo tiene un efecto negativo, estadísticamente significativo sobre la producción. El análisis de cointegración señala que un punto porcentual adicional en la tasa de desempleo disminuye la producción en 2.06% en el caso del enfoque de Johansen & Juselius (1990) y de 2.09% con el enfoque ARDL. Los resultados indican una relación bidireccional entre la producción y el desempleo, y señalan que frente a fluctuaciones en el sistema, el efecto en el desempleo registra su nivel máximo en el quinto trimestre, mientras que el producto alcanza su punto máximo en el tercer trimestre. Esto sugiere que los hacedores de política deben considerar el impulso de la producción como una estrategia clave para combatir el desempleo y el elevado costo de la desocupación en términos de producto, y que los efectos de las políticas que buscan promover la economía van a transmitirse a lo largo del tiempo.

Does unemployment lead to isolation? The consequences of unemployment for social networks

Popular accounts in both social science and society claim that unemployment goes together with social withdrawal. However, empirical support for this conclusion is largely derived from cross-sectional studies or indirect measurements of social contacts. In this study, we argue that consequences of unemployment for personal networks differ across social groups and by length of unemployment. Using longitudinal data from the Swiss Household Panel (1999–2010), we focus on three frequently employed social network statistics: network size, contact frequency, and perceived support by friends, family, neighbors, and acquaintances. We estimate how short (<1 year) and long term (>1 year) unemployment relates to these network characteristics for men and women, people below and above 50 years of age, and lower and higher educated individuals. Our results provide a more-nuanced perspective on the commonly assumed social withdrawal following unemployment.

Single transitions and persistence of unemployment are associated with poor health outcomes

BackgroundAlthough job loss has been associated with decline in health, the effect of long term unemployment is less clear and under-researched. Furthermore, the impact of an economic recession on this relationship is unclear. We investigated the associations of single transitions and persistence of unemployment with health. We subsequently examined whether these associations are affected by the latest recession, which began in 2008.MethodsIn total, 57,911 participants from the Dutch Health Interview Survey who belonged to the labour force between 2004 and 2014 were included. Based on longitudinal tax registration data, single employment transitions between time point 1 (t1) and time point 2 (t2) and persistent unemployment (i.e. number of years individuals were unemployed) between t1 and time point 5 (t5) were defined. General and mental health, smoking and obesity were assessed at respectively time point 3 (t3) and time point 6 (t6). Logistic regression models were performed and interactions with recession indicators (year, annual gross domestic product estimates and regional unemployment rates) were tested.ResultsCompared with individuals who stayed employed at t1 and t2, the likelihood of poor mental health at the subsequent year was significantly higher in those who became unemployed at t2. Persistent unemployment was associated with poor mental health, especially for those who were persistently unemployed for 5 years. Similar patterns, although less pronounced for smoking, were found for general health and obesity. Indicators of the economic recession did not modify these associations.ConclusionsSingle transitions into unemployment and persistent unemployment are associated with poor mental and general health, obesity, and to a lesser extend smoking. Our study suggests that re-employment might be an important strategy to improve health of unemployed individuals. The relatively extensive Dutch social security system may explain that the economic recession did not modify these associations.

Relationship Between Growth and Unemployment in Petroleum Exporting Countries: Case of Congo

The purpose of this article is to examine relation between growth and unemployment in Congo. To this, the error correction model ARDL is used. The estimation results show the existence of relation significantly negative between growth and long term unemployment on the period 1991.Q1-2016.Q1. Such a result accounts an unemployment existence of a structural character in Congo. In this regard, the resolution of unemployment problem in Congo goes through the policies of the offer. In other words, the Congolese government must put in place policies aiming to increase productivity of production factors. To be specific, the government can favor the augmentation of a prospective GDP, urging companies with important manpower to invest, by an increase of productive public investment. Keywords : growth, employment, ARDL, Congo JEL Classification : E23, E24, C32, 055

Long term unemployment, income, poverty, and social public expenditure, and their relationship with self-perceived health in Spain (2007\u20132011)

BackgroundThere is scant research that simultaneously analyzes the joint effects of long-term unemployment, poverty and public expenditure policies on poorer self-perceived health during the financial crisis. The aim of the study is to analyze the joint relationship between long-term unemployment, social deprivation, and regional social public expenditure on one side, and self-perceived health in Spain (2007–2011) on the other.MethodsLongitudinal data were extracted from the Survey on Living Conditions, 2007–2010 and 2008–2011 (9105 individuals and 36,420 observations), which were then used to estimate several random group effects in the constant multilevel logistic longitudinal models (level 1: year; level 2: individual; level 3: region). The dependent variable was self-perceived health. Individual independent interest variables were long and very long term unemployment, available income, severe material deprivation and regional variables were per capita expenditure on essential public services and per capita health care expenditure.ResultsAll of the estimated models show a robust association between bad perceived health and the variables of interest. When compared to employed individuals, long term unemployment increases the odds of reporting bad health by 22% to 67%; very long-term unemployment (24 to 48 months) increases the odds by 54% to 132%. Family income reduces the odds of reporting bad health by 16% to 28% for each additional percentage point in income. Being a member of a household with severe material deprivation increases the odds of perceiving one’s health as bad by between 70% and 140%. Regionally, per capita expenditure on essential public services increases the odds of reporting good health, although the effect of this association was limited.ConclusionsLong and very long term unemployment, available income and poverty were associated to self-perceived bad health in Spain during the financial crisis. Regional expenditure on fundamental public services is also associated to poor self-perceived health, although in a more limited fashion. Results suggest the positive role in health of active employment and redistributing income policies.

ZATRUDNIENIE W NIEPEŁNYM WYMIARZE CZASU PRACY

Time-part Employment – Chances and ThreatsSummaryOver the last twenty years, an increasing share of employment across the EU countries has been made up of part time jobs. That is why the growth in part-time employment stands out as a prominent feature of modern labor markets. However, there are still remarkable differences in the relative volumes of the part-time employment share in different countries within the European Union.In recent years, the issue of labor market flexibility has become prominent in the debate over the labor market policy in Europe. The lack of dynamism in the flexibility of the labor markets within the EU countries, often characterized by a height share of long- term unemployment and stringent employment protection legislation, has frequently been blamed for the poor employment performance of the 80s and 90s.An increase in the rate of part-time work has been generally perceived as a positive development as it enables the employers to adjust work hours to the cyclical conditions more easily, facilitates an adjustment of production and labor costs as well as attracts people, who were previously unwilling or unable to work, towards the labor market. But one has to notice that some studies have found that part-time workers earn less than their full time colleagues, my be less likely to receive some benefits and face reduced chances for promotion.

Fostering entrepreneurship at high schools: A case of rural areas in Vojvodina (Serbia)

An early entrepreneurial education has a positive influence on decisions of young people to engage in entrepreneurial activities. Long term unemployment among young people is a characteristic of Republic of Serbia. The youth unemployment can be decreased by directing and encouraging young people to start their own businesses, but shaping the entrepreneurial aspirations should take primacy. These aspirations must be founded on knowledge, skills, social involvement and networking. Educational system should be adjusted to follow economic and market shifts. In this paper, research was conducted in four high schools in rural municipalities of Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. The pupils were given a questioner regarding their entrepreneurial aspirations. Based on the collected data, measures for altering and complementing curriculums in high schools can be designed. Early entrepreneurial education is helping young population to build their careers on realistic grounds and compatible with ongoing global trends.

The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.

Labour Market Institutions: Sensitivity to the Cycle and Impact of the Crisis in European Regions

ABSTRACTThe current economic crisis has had spatially differentiated impacts in both the US and Europe. A growing collection of literature investigates the determinants of the magnitude of this recession across regions. This paper aims to contribute to this literature by analysing variations in unemployment rate across European regions over the period 2004–11. In particular, we focus on two apparently neglected issues, namely labour market rigidity and the sensitivity of the local economy to the national or European business cycle. The rigidity of the labour market is increasingly viewed as a possible reason for differences among countries in terms of the performance of labour markets, although existing empirical evidence remains inconclusive. In this respect, our aim is to assess the relevance of national labour legislation, as measured by the OECD Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) Index for the performance of regional labour markets by taking advantage of the natural experiment provided by the crisis. Furthermore, for the first time in economic literature, we employ quarterly data on unemployment rate for all European regions over the period 2000–11 to construct an index of co–movement regarding regional cycles with national or European cycles, to be used as an important determinant of variation in the unemployment rate. After controlling for a number of covariates, as well as for spatial dependence in various forms, our results indicate that EPL did not affect unemployment growth over the entire period. However, we did find that regions with a low long–term unemployment rate in countries with high EPL performed better in the pre‐crisis period (2004–07), whereas no effect was found during the crisis. We also found that synchronisation of the regional cycle with the national one was significant for explaining regional labour market performance. Taken together, these results denote the limited relevance of national policies and legislation for accommodating spatially differentiated shocks, whereas policies aimed at modifying local cycles may prove to be more effective.

Inclusive Labor Markets as a Solution of Long Term Unemployment in Slovakia

Unemployment of each country influences its performance and is deeply connected to work productivity, inflation and living standard of population. Inflation and unemployment are phenomena, to which modern economy pays higher attention. The proof of their significance is also the fact that they have become the main areas, to which focuses the economical policy. Longterm and the highest rate of unemployment in Slovakia is concentrated in southern districts of Central and Eastern Slovakia. Concentration of high rate of unemployment in some regions causes that traditional tools for solution of this problem are not effective anymore. To new tools for solution of unemployment problem belongs also the concept of inclusive market as a market, of which objective is to provide work opportunities for persons belonging to the category of long-term unemployed. The aim of this paper is to point to long-term unemployment in Slovakia through inclusive labor markets on the basis of theoretical starting points. In the article there is an analysis of unemployment in Slovakia and its comparison with V4 countries. Methodology towards the goal are the analytical and comparative methods. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n2p194

Crime and unemployment in Greece: Evidence before and during the crisis

This paper explores the relationship between unemployment and crime in Greece before and during the crisis using panel data at the regional level. The results indicate the operation of a positive relationship between specific crime categories and male unemployment only during the crisis, a weaker effect of long term unemployment only on the total criminal activity and they reveal the existence of significant dynamics.

The Weighting Role of Normalisation in a Multidimensional Analysis of Social Inclusion

In the context of the multidimensional measurement of complex phenomena, the major focus of the recent literature has been on the choice of the dimensions’ weights and the shape of the aggregation function, while few studies have concentrated on how normalisation influences the results. With the aim of building a measure of Social Inclusion for European regions between 2004 and 2012, we adopt a CES aggregation framework and compare two alternative normalisation strategies: a data-driven min-max function, where the parameters depends solely on the available data, and an expert-based function where parameters are elicited through a survey at the University of Venice Ca’ Foscari. Regardless of the adopted strategy, we show that normalisation plays a crucial part in defining variables’ weighting and trade-offs. The data-driven strategy produces trade-offs that are hard to interpret in economic terms and debatable from a social desirability perspective, thus generating an aggregate measure with a “positive” interpretation. Moreover, it softens the aftermaths of the recent economic crisis on Social Inclusion, by putting a consistent weight on the longevity variable. Conversely, the expert-based normalisation has strikingly different parameters and allows for a normative interpretation of the resulting index. Furthermore, it emphasizes the worsening trends in long- term unemployment and the relevance of early school leaving in the Social Inclusion measure. As a result, numerous rank-reversals occur between regions when switching the normalisation methods.

The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.