Term Structure Of Swap Spreads Research Articles

Modeling Swap Spreads in Normal and Stressed Environments

We develop a simple integrated model for the term structure of swap spreads. We begin with a model that explains the dynamics of the riskless treasury curve in terms of two factors. We add to the basic model additional inputs that describe the evolution of the implied hazard rate intensity for interest rate swaps. Based on the model, we derive closed form expressions for observables such as the shape of the term structure of swap spreads and the term structure of volatilities. Our model is economically motivated, and is appealing in its simplicity and robustness in being able to explain the dynamics of the swap spread term structure in both normal and stressed markets. We apply the technique to swap-spread term structures for various international markets. <b>TOPICS:</b>Factor-based models, interest-rate and currency swaps, volatility measures, developed markets [US, UK, Japan]

Modeling Swap Spreads in Normal and Stressed Environments

We develop a simple integrated model for the term structure of swap spreads. We begin with a model for explaining the dynamics of the riskless treasury curve in terms of two factors. We add to the basic model additional inputs that describe the evolution of the implied hazard rate intensity for interest rate swaps. Based on the model, we can derive closed form expressions for observables such as the shape of the term structure of swap spreads, term structure of volatilities and correlations. Our model is economically motivated, and is appealing in its simplicity and robustness in being able to explain the dynamics of the swap spread term structure in both normal and stressed markets. We apply the technique to swap-spread term structures for various international markets.

Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit risk variables. Our empirical results in the yen swap market indicate that: 1) the commonly-used assumption of lognormal default-free interest rates and swap spreads is strongly rejected by the data, 2) the term structure of swap spreads displays a humped-shape, and 3) the shocks in the yen swap spread are negatively correlated with the shocks in the comparable default-free spot rates, especially for longer maturities. Our analysis also indicates that yen swap spreads behaved very differently from the credit spreads on Japanese corporate bonds in the early nineties. In contrast to Japanese corporate bonds, we find that the yen swap spread is also significantly related to proxies for the long-term credit risk factor. Furthermore, the swap spread is negatively related to the level and slope of the term structure and positively related to the curvature, indicating that the credit optionality is priced in the swap rate. Thus, overall, the yen swap market was sensitive to credit risk during the period of our study.

An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads

This paper argues that liquidity differences between government securities and short–term Eurodollar borrowings account for interest rate swap spreads. It then models the convenience of liquidity as a linear function of two mean–reverting state variables and values it. The interest rate swap spread for a swap of particular maturity is the annuitized equivalent of this value. It has a closed form solution: a simple integral. Special cases examined include the Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross one–factor term structure models. Numerical values for the parameters in both special cases illustrate that many realistic ‘swap spread term structures’ can be replicated. Model parameters are estimated using weekly data on the term structure of swap spreads from several countries. The model fits the data well.

Modeling Term Structures of Swap Spreads

Swap spreads, the interest rate differentials between the fixed rates on fixed-for-floating swap contracts and the yeilds-to-maturity on maturity-matched government bonds, define a market for one of the most actively transacted securities in the global fixed-income arena. A large universe of fixed-income securities including corporate bonds and mortgaged-back securities use interest rate swap spreads as a key benchmark for pricing and hedging. Swap spreads have received renewed attention since the Fall of 1998 when their volatile movements contributed in a significant way to the financial turmoil that led the US Fed to cut short-term interest rates by 75 basis points. In this paper we present new insights on how to analyze term structure of interest swap spreads. Specificaly, we focus on the determinants of swap spreads and show how quantities such as the spread of short-term LIBOR over GC-repo rates, the liquidity premium commended by government bond, and the risk premium required for holding long-term bonds/swaps jointly determine term structures of swap spreads.