Terms Of Investment Research Articles

The economic rise of China – an analysis of China’s growth drivers

The economic rise of China has changed the global economy. The authors explore China’s transformation from a low-cost manufacturing hub to an increasingly innovation- and service driven economy. Major growth drivers for the period 2010–2025 are analysed, including the paradigms of “Made in China” and the “Dual Circulation Strategy”. The export intensity of China’s economy is declining overall, with a tendency towards greater regional diversification and a gradual decoupling from North America and the European Union. At the same time, trade and investment activities are increasingly geared to the Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, labour and energy cost advantages for manufacturing operations in China are likely to diminish in the coming years, calling into question China’s attractiveness as a global manufacturing hub. In this regard, the further development of regional and industrial clusters is pivotal for China to enhance its global competitiveness and remain an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the medium term. On the other hand, high productivity in science and technology and rich deposits of critical minerals put China in a favourable position in advanced industries. Important challenges include the still wide development gap between rural and urban areas, the structural mismatch in the labour market, with persistently high youth unemployment, and the race to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Investment Performance Analysis Of Debt Mutual Funds In India – A Quantitative Approach

Mutual funds are investments which allow the investor to have access to a wide range of securities. Among them the debt funds invest particularly in fixed income securities, which help the investor to balance the risk and return in his portfolio. Analysing any investment brings to light its current and future performance and its suitability to the investor. The study takes into consideration 15 schemes belonging to liquid funds, short term income funds and gilt funds. The performance is evaluated using Absolute Return, Standard deviation, beta, RSquared, Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen’s Alpha. The study concludes that the debt funds are more suitable for short term investments as the liquid and short-term funds are able to provide better risk adjusted returns. Moreover, the gilt funds are more prone to be affected by interest rate risk which will in turn lower the returns of the funds

Optimizing Short and Long Term Investment Returns Using Multi-Armed Slot Machine Algorithms

This study focuses on comparing the effectiveness of UCB, Thompson sampling and Epsilon-Greedy algorithms in multi-armed slot machine algorithms for short-term and long-term investment return optimization in financial markets. This analysis examines stock performance data from Tesla, General Motors, and Ford over specific periods: five years of weekly data (2019-2024) and six months of daily data (February to August 2024). From the results, it is shown that for long-term investments, Over the five-year period, Thompson Sampling outperformed UCB and Epsilon-Greedy algorithms in terms of stability and overall return, demonstrating a consistent upward trend with fewer fluctuations. For short-term investments, although the UCB algorithm performs similarly to the Thompson sampling algorithm, the returns in the UCB algorithm grow progressively slower as the timeline is lengthened. In the six-month daily data analysis, the Epsilon-Greedy algorithm excelled in capturing short-term gains due to its aggressive exploration mechanism, though it also showed higher volatility in response to market fluctuations, and the algorithm should be chosen to be able to keep up with the fluctuations in the stock market in real time, and the investor should take into account the cost of time as well as changes in the market in order to formulate an optimal investment strategy.The findings of this study will provide a practical type of approach to investors when developing investment strategies. Future research will explore other classes of new algorithms and consider more market factors so that they can be better adapted to the complex investment environment in the future.

The Impact of Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy on Urban Economic Development—A Case Study of Beijing

Since 2010, Beijing's purchase restriction policy has been adjusted several times to adapt to the market and promote stability. In April 2024, the policy was eased for housing areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, marking the first major adjustment in 13 years. This paper analyses the economic impact of Beijing's real estate purchase restriction policy, focusing on its effect on investment, consumption, industrial structure, and employment. The study indicates that the purchase restriction policy initially hinders investment and consumption in the short term but contributes to market stability and industrial optimization in the long run. The policy change has increased housing sales and growth in related industries outside the Fifth Ring Road, promoting economic development in the suburbs. Furthermore, the policy has a nuanced impact on the employment market, encouraging labor mobility toward high-tech and service industries while affecting employment in real estate-related sectors. The study suggests that policymakers need to consider the impacts of various aspects to ensure the healthy development of the real estate and employment markets.

Optimizing estate planning through strategic mutual fund investments: Analysis on evaluating mutual fund performance models for long term investment objectives

Optimizing estate planning through strategic mutual fund investments: Analysis on evaluating mutual fund performance models for long term investment objectives

Understanding the confidence of agricultural producers in an emerging market

In this paper, we address the confidence of the agricultural producers in their prosperity as a driver of development. The agricultural sector development is highly dependent on short term investment decisions for sowing area, breeding, among others, which in turn is mediated by confidence. Agricultural producer confidence is continually measured in Argentina by CREA, a non-profit organisation composed of groups of producers spread across the country striving for innovation and best practices diffusion. We leverage this measurement methodology to propose a structural equation model to explain confidence by an exhaustive collection of factors affecting the business at company, sector or economy level, providing critical insight about the range of policies that would enable agriculture to grow. High regulation and tax burdens prevailing in the market during the past decades have been identified as relevant hindrance factors to confidence. On the enablers side are the respect for property rights and the organisation effectiveness actively fostered by CREA.

How Private Equity funds can spur new investment in the Global SAM and MOGI Sectors under various uncertainties- Part-1

While operationally most of the SAM and MOGI sectors, when developed, are lucrative, they also suffer from an array of uncertainties and disruptions. It becomes less acceptable for long term investors when the uncertainties continue to hog the market; as it is happening now. While globally, the governments are keeping away from the risky investments, the private equity investment can be a method for renewed investments in the SAM and MOGI sector, starting from exploration to the value chain investing while the fields are operational. In order to be rational to the investing as well as to protect investor interest, the governments must play an alert but flexible watchdog role.

Legal Protection of Long Term Investments in the Field of Palm Oil Plantation Management in Indonesia

Legal Protection of Long Term Investments in the Field of Palm Oil Plantation Management in Indonesia

Sectoral recommendation system for medium term investment using technical indicators

Stocks of different companies are generally categorized into various industrial sectors based on the domain they operate. Individual stock prices are much more difficult to predict, and an investment bears a significant risk of unanticipated failure while thematic investment allows diversification within a sector and hence avoids the risk of failure of a single stock. In thematic investment, a user identifies one or more industrial sectors based on thematic preference and then distributes the corpus among various stocks from those sectors. If sectors are chosen wisely then it is possible to have a positive return even with the sudden downfall of some stock. To identify the sectors that will yield a positive return in the medium term, we have selected ten technical indicators (TI), and designed backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) with scaled conjugate gradient learning. We have evaluated the BPNN models with 12 sectoral index price history from NSE and achieved a comparable accuracy of 81.05% in prediction. In the next step, we have predicted sectoral index movement for one month to six months in the future, and based on the predicted gains we ranked the sectors. Based on the given investment horizon, top-k(=4) sectors are recommended to an investor. We validated our strategy on NSE sectoral data and achieved a recommendation accuracy of 87.5%.

Energy dynamics affecting the US economy; natural energy investments, carbon emissions, production, exports and GDP per Capita.

This study investigates how carbon dioxide emissions, natural gas, energy consumption, energy investment, coal and crude oil, and per capita exports affected the economic growth of the United States from 1993 to 2023 using the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. The findings highlight the importance of exports and energy investment in driving both short- and long-term economic growth, while also highlighting interactions between carbon emissions, coal use and crude oil. It was determined that changes in natural gas and exports affected energy investment in the short term, while coal and exports affected natural gas. These results provide valuable information about the dynamics of the American economy and contribute to our understanding of the complex interactions between various factors and their effects on economic growth, offering implications for further research and policy development to promote sustainable economic development.

The differential impact of IT investments in the long term: a long-horizon event study

PurposeThis research investigates the differential impact of information technology (IT) investments based on their features, such as investment in data management capability, security improvement, IT outsourcing or new IT infrastructure. The Long-Horizon Event Study (LHES) is essential for providing a more appropriate measure of the value of IT investments because firms' strategic decisions often set long-horizon and large-scale organizational goals, and there is inherent uncertainty regarding future cash flows resulting from these investments. Therefore, the authors aim to analyze how announcements of IT investments affect the firm's abnormal stock returns over the long term and to compare the differential impact of different features of IT investment.Design/methodology/approachThe authors gathered IT investment announcements and stock data of listed firms in Korea between 2000 and 2018, and the monthly stock market returns over the 5 years after the announcements. To measure the differential impact of IT investments based on the investment features, the authors separate announcements data into five groups. A LHES is used to estimate the long-term effects of IT investment announcements.FindingsThe results indicate that announcements of IT investments had a long-term positive effect on firm performance. Additionally, the findings reveal differential effects of IT investments across industries and investment features. Notably, news of self-developed IT investments and IT investments in the manufacturing industry had significantly positive effects. However, contrary to common belief, announcements of investments in so-called essential IT areas such as data, security, or new IT infrastructure did not yield significant effects.Originality/valueAlthough the need for LHES has been emphasized in information systems research, few follow-up studies have been conducted since Barua and Mani (2018). This is primarily due to the challenges associated with collecting large-scale abnormal stock returns data over a long horizon. This research represents the first LHES to investigate the differential impact of IT investments based on their features. By doing so, this study can provide valuable insights for decision-makers within firms, helping them understand the time horizon of market outcomes of IT investments based on their features. Furthermore, this work extends the scope of LHES to comprehend the differential impacts of investment features. For instance, managers need to grasp that so-called essential IT investments, such as data management, security enhancements or new IT infrastructure, may not necessarily generate long-term market value.

Relationship between Financial Risk Exposure and Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks in Kenya

Currently, there is a financial crisis affecting commercial banks in Kenya occasioned by high levels of loan loss provision as a result of Non-Performing Loans. The past decade has seen the collapse of major banks like Chase Bank among others. This trend on Non-Performing Loans of the institutions requires urgent measures to reverse failure to which the entire sector is likely to collapse, and customers would lose a significant amount of their deposits. This study sought to investigate the effect of credit risk and liquidity risk on non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks in Kenya and appraise the moderating effect of firm age on the relationship between financial risk exposure on non-performing loans of commercial banks in Kenya. The study was underpinned by liquidity preference theory. The examination adopted a positivist paradigm guided by explanatory research design. The study targeted 40 commercial banks as the unit of analysis while branch managers, operations and risk managers were the units of observation drawn from the banks adding to 120 respondents and census was used. The study collected both primary data using structured questionnaire on the independent variable and secondary data from publications by Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and respective banks and the same was analyzed through the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 26 in a descriptive and inferential manner. The study established that credit risk (p<0.05) and liquidity risk (p<0.05) were all found to have significant effect on NPLs of commercial banks in Kenya and significantly moderated by their sizes. It was concluded that financial risk exposure has significant effect on NPLs of commercial banks in Kenya. It was recommended that finance manages working in commercial banks in Kenya to balance the investment in short term and long-term assets to maintain operational liquidity levels for better management of liquidity risks. Credit managers working for commercial banks in Kenya need to review the existing credit risk management efforts and mechanisms to minimize exposure to NPLs.

Revisiting the January effect anomaly: evidence from international stock markets

A recurring theme in the literature and discussion of stock market analysis is the concept of the January effect which essentially implies buy in December and sell in January. The January effect is based on the perceived seasonality trend where short term investors hope to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between December and January. However, this perceived anomaly continues is seen as a myth and has been strongly rejected by many market participants in the current dispensation. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the January effect in the Nikkei 225, JSE, CAC 40, DAX, and the NASDAQ Index from February 2019 to February 2024. A F-test statistics was used to explore the phenomenon. The findings indicated that there is no significant difference between the realised returns in January and those of the other month for the most recent five years. This led to the conclusion that, while the January effect may have been observed, it is no longer evident in financial markets, hence market participants should avoid using this type of arbitrage approach because it may result in massive losses

The Role of Public Development Banks During the Pandemic: Impact Evaluation of BICE's Innovative Credit Response

ABSTRACT The global COVID-19 pandemic triggered a renewed impetus for the countercyclical role of development banks, marked by widespread adoption of diverse instruments to mitigate its impact. Argentina's development bank (BICE, Banco de Inversión y Comercio Exterior, specialized in loan for long term investment, responded to the 2020 health and economic crises implementing a working capital loan program. Amidst a lack of substantial evidence on the efficacy of similar counter-cyclical interventions, we employed a quasi-experimental methodology, incorporating Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Fixed Effects (FE) estimations, to evaluate the program's impact. Our results demonstrate that firms benefiting from the loan maintained employment levels, in stark contrast to a nearly 6 per cent decrease for those without it. The program effectively mitigated the employment impact of the transient shock. Robustness checks, along with falsification tests, bolster our identification strategy. Complementary findings emphasize that the program's success lies in providing credit during adverse conditions, when private sector credit contracts. This insight, rather than the exceptional terms of the credit, offers a crucial lesson for the future.

CAPITAL BUDGETING

The project talks about a capital budgeting and its methods including discounted cash flow, payback, and throughput analyses. The process involves analyzing a project’s cash inflows and outflows to determine whether the expected return meets a set benchmark, we are going to talk about how capital budgeting is also important for small and big companies to evaluate major projects and investments, such as new plants or equipment. In the present scenario the efficient allocation of capital resources is a most important function of project management. This function involves firm’s decision to invest its funds in long-term assets like plant, machinery land, building, equipment etc. These assets are extremely important to the firm because the organizational profits are derived from the use of its capital investment in assets which represent a long-term commitment of funds. The future development of an enterprise depends on the capital investment projects. These projects may be the replacement of existing capital assets which turns out to be less attractive to the firm or expansion of business for implementing new ideas and planning. Thus, long term investment decisions of an enterprise fall within the definition of project budgeting or capital expenditure decisions. These decisions are concerned with the acquisition of assets in which funds will be invested by an enterprise. The assets of business include long term assets and short-term assets. Long term assets will yield a return over a period of time whereas short term assets are those assets which are easily convertible into cash within one accounting period, normally a year. The long-term investment decision is known as project budgeting/capital budgeting and the short-term investment decision are identified as working capital management.

How do energy security risk and ICT affect green investment?

Green investment yields financial returns while positively influencing the environment. Several empirics have tried to find the factors that impact green investment, but none of them has focused on energy security risks and ICT as potential determinants of green investment. This analysis intends to scrutinize the influence of energy security risk and ICT on green investment from 1996 to 2021 with the help of a novel CS-ARDL model. The findings confirm the positive association between energy security risks and long-term green investment globally and in Asia, America, Europe, and Africa. Similarly, ICT boosts green investment in the long term globally and in America and Europe. Carbon emissions also escalates green investment globally and in Asia, America, Europe, and Africa. However, GDP boosts green investment globally and in Asia, America, and Europe, while FD boosts green investment globally and in America and Europe. Lastly, trade openness also increases green investment in Asia and America in the long run. The short-term impacts are mostly insignificant except for the GDP, CO2, and financial development variables, which boost green investment in one or two regions. Thus, governments should strategize to encourage ICT for sustainable green investments.

The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies of the US, EU, and China on global green investment

This study investigates how the monetary policies of the USA, EU, and China affect global green investment differently by using the dynamic autoregressive distributive lag (DARDL) model and kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS). DARDL's results show that US monetary policy is not conducive to global green investment in the short and long term. The EU's conventional monetary policy negatively impacts global green investment, but only in the short term. However, China's conventional monetary policy boosts global green investment in the long term. The inference from the response simulations implies that the conventional monetary easing policy of the US, EU, and China positively influences global green investment in the long and short run. However, the magnitude of the response of the EU is greater than that of the US and China. Unconventional monetary policy easing of the US negatively influences global green investments in the short run, whereas China and EU policies affect it positively. However, in the long run, global green investment is unaffected by unconventional monetary policy easing in the case of the US. In contrast, China's and the EU's unconventional monetary policies easing have had a positive impact. In the case of financial development, a negative impact on global green investment is more strongly evident for China than for the US and the EU. Overall, the empirical results of this study recommend that a significant change in the monetary policies of large economies is required to promote global green investment for ecological transition.

THE NEXUS BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION EFFECT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Currently, energy consumption is an important factor regarding its contribution to economic growth rather than the inputs used for its realization. It is known that economic decision units are linked to energy consumption. Innovation of technologies and the use of technology in production increases the energy demand. Energy is complementary to labor and capital in countries' economic and technological development. 
 The study aims to determine the impact of electricity consumption on economic growth by utilizing selected economic indicators for the period between 1996 and 2022 in Turkey. The study uses the ARDL bounds test approach to analyze the cointegration relationship using economic growth, electricity consumption, foreign direct investment, and general price level data. Short and long term effects have been revealed. It is observed that energy consumption and economic growth have a positive relationship with the same direction in the short and long term. Inflation has a negative impact on energy consumption in the short and long term. In addition, the increase in foreign direct investments in the short term leads to a significant increase in energy consumption in the relevant period in Turkey.

The Impact of Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy on Urban Economic Development—A Case Study of Beijing

Since 2010, Beijing's purchase restriction policy has been adjusted several times to adapt to the market and promote stability. In April 2024, the policy was eased for housing areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, marking the first major adjustment in 13 years. This paper analyses the economic impact of Beijing's real estate purchase restriction policy, focusing on its effect on investment, consumption, industrial structure, and employment. The study indicates that the purchase restriction policy initially hinders investment and consumption in the short term but contributes to market stability and industrial optimization in the long run. The policy change has increased housing sales and growth in related industries outside the Fifth Ring Road, promoting economic development in the suburbs. Furthermore, the policy has a nuanced impact on the employment market, encouraging labor mobility toward high-tech and service industries while affecting employment in real estate-related sectors. The study suggests that policymakers need to consider the impacts of various aspects to ensure the healthy development of the real estate and employment markets.

Creating an Informal Transport Route

Problem, research strategy, and findings This study shares the results of a test I established of a new minibus route in Kampala with the Uganda Transport Operators Federation (UTOF). Informal transport provides the bulk of urban mobility in the Global South but may be limited in the connectivity and spatial coverage it is able to provide. I tested the effectiveness of market response by temporarily subsidizing operations in an unserved location and found that even a limited expansion of routing found passenger demand, showing a countercurrent of travel against the existing pattern of radial, central business district–to-suburb travel. Female street vendors were a particularly important previously unserved group of passengers. For operators, the study revealed that establishing new services can be difficult, requiring organizational capacity and substantial investment and risk in terms of time and money. In parallel, when such investments are made, other formal and informal actors, such as police, government bureaucracy, and competing operators, can act to extract the benefits, further slowing the change and growth of the transport network. Takeaway for practice I describe the implementation steps and lessons learned from a small-scale pilot project that could be scaled for use as a planning intervention as well as to assess the equity of market-driven public transport and identify mobility gaps. This study expands the body of evidence on the effectiveness of informal transport systems for diverse mobility needs and spatial coverage, providing unique data and a methodological approach to address latent and hidden mobility needs for urban residents. It develops a potential avenue of intervention for regulators and planning practitioners for a cheap, light-touch intervention that collaborates with informal transport workers to expand accessibility and equity for passengers.