Tephra Dispersal Research Articles

The 23–24 March 2021 lava fountain at Mt Etna, Italy

In 2021, more than 50 paroxysmal episodes occurred at the South-East Crater (SEC) of Mt Etna, Italy. The 23–24 March lava fountain was one of the longest episodes and began with weak Strombolian explosions, gradually transitioning to lava fountaining. The eruption intensity then dropped more slowly than in previous episodes, resulting in pulsating Strombolian explosions dominated by ash emission. Thirty-four tephra samples were used to reconstruct the fallout dispersal and estimate the total erupted mass. Grain size, textural, petrological and geochemical analyses indicate different features and were compared with the gas phase (SO2 and HCl) in the volcanic plume. By applying stochastic global optimization to simulations of the temporal evolution of the eruption column height and tephra dispersal and deposition, the total erupted mass retrieved (6.76 × 108 kg) matches well the total erupted mass estimation by the ground-based deposit (8.03 ± 2.38 × 108 kg), reducing the column height throughout the episode from 6.44 to 4.5 km above sea level and resulting in a mass eruption rate ranging from 1.96 × 105 to 8.18 × 103 kg/s. The unusual duration of the March episode and the characteristics of the erupted products point to the change in explosive style and magma fragmentation from fountaining to ash emission phases, associated with a slower magma supply inducing a change in magma rheology and a final, prolonged ash generation. Furthermore, this study showed that using observational data and the variation in eruption source parameters for numerical simulations can improve the accuracy of predicting the dispersal plume, thus mitigating the potential impact of longer paroxysmal episodes.

Tephra dispersal and composition reveal the explosive onset of a large basaltic fissure eruption: Timanfaya, Lanzarote, 1730–1736 CE

Tephra dispersal and composition reveal the explosive onset of a large basaltic fissure eruption: Timanfaya, Lanzarote, 1730–1736 CE

A quantum algorithm for computing dispersal of submarine volcanic tephra

In this paper, we develop a quantum computing algorithm for solving the partial differential equation (PDE) for tephra dispersal through advection in the semi-infinite horizontal buoyant region of a submarine volcanic eruption. The concentration of pyroclastic particles in the fluid domain of a hydrothermal megaplume provides important information about the rate of volcanic energy release, mechanism of formation of the megaplume, and submarine depositional patterns. This work leveraging on previous works [F. Gaitan, NPJ Quantum Inf. 6, 61 (2020); F. Gaitan, Adv. Quantum Tech. 4, 2100055 (2021)] further opens up opportunities to solve wider classes of PDEs with different applications of interest. Some additional specific contributions of this work are transforming the semi-infinite spatial domain problem into a problem on a finite spatial domain for applying the quantum algorithm, and the investigation into the effect of spatial and temporal resolution on the solution of PDEs for the quantum algorithm. Furthermore, possible modification of the algorithm with different spatial discretization schemes has been presented and their influence and implications on the solution of the PDE have been discussed. Also, studies are conducted to examine the effect of regularity conditions in time and the presence of statistical noise in the spatial domain, on the solutions obtained using quantum algorithms. The study in this paper paves an important pathway to venture into other types of advection-diffusion problems.

PROMETHEUS: Probability in the Mediterranean of Tephra dispersal for various grain sizes. A tool for the evaluation of the completeness of the volcanic record in medial-distal archives

PROMETHEUS is a statistical tool that allows creating maps showing the probability of finding tephra deposits of different grain sizes, originating from eruptions of a specific volcanic source, at any location around the vent. It couples wind profiles at different heights in the Mediterranean area with terminal velocity of volcanic particles. The input parameters include the height of the eruption column (which characterizes the intensity of the eruption), wind statistics (directions and intensities), and tephra deposits of a selected grain size. In particular, we used the parameterizations provided by Costa et al. (2016) and performed simulations using the HAZMAP tephra dispersal model to determine the maximum reachable distances that tephra can cover under weak, medium, and strong wind conditions (e.g. 7, 30, and 70 m/s velocities at the tropopause) and with column heights of 10, 20, and 30 km, depositing of at least the loading corresponding to 0.1 mm (corresponding to cryptotephra). Three alternative configurations of the model are validated analyzing first the eruptive source of Somma Vesuvius, with the related explosive eruptions from 22 ka Pomici di Base to the 1944 eruption. A further validation is made by comparing the probabilistic maps with the tephrostratigraphy of known marine and terrestrial cores using standard test of proportions (binomial distributions) and the binary logistic regression model, statistically quantifying the effectiveness of the model against the tephrostratigraphy recorded within this time frame. Based on this validation, a preferred configuration of PROMETHEUS is selected. PROMETHEUS probability maps will guide the selection of sampling sites for specific tephra deposits and could also support the study of the completeness of overall eruption catalogs over time.

Eruption plumes extended more than 30 km in altitude in both phases of the Millennium eruption of Paektu (Changbaishan) volcano

AbstractThe Millennium Eruption of Paektu volcano, on the border of China and North Korea, generated tephra deposits that extend >1000 km from the vent, making it one of the largest eruptions in historical times. Based on observed thicknesses and compositions of the deposits, the widespread tephra dispersal is attributed to two eruption phases fuelled by chemically distinct magmas that produced both pyroclastic flows and fallout deposits. We used an ensemble-based method with a dual step inversion, in combination with the FALL3D atmospheric tephra transport model, to constrain these two different phases. The volume of the two distinct phases has been calculated. The results indicate that about 3-16 km3 (with a best estimate of 7.2 km3) and 4-20 km3 (with a best estimate of 9.3 km3) of magma were erupted during the comendite and trachyte phases of the eruption, respectively. Eruption rates of up to 4 × 108 kg/s generated plumes that extended 30-40 km up into the stratosphere during each phase.

Revisiting the Holocene tephrochronology of northwestern Argentina: Insights from geochemical characterization of the tephras from the Tafí valley

In the southernmost sector of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), spanning from 23° to 28°S, there is an estimated count of 30–40 potentially active volcanoes. Due to its remote location, the primary volcanic threat in this area during explosive eruptions is the dispersal and fallout of tephra. Among various approaches, tephrochronological studies have proven to be the most effective in compiling a comprehensive record of recent explosive eruptions in this region. The intermontane valleys nestled at the eastern foothills of the Andes, situated around 200–300 km from the volcanic arc, harbor a Holocene stratigraphic record containing multiple layers of tephra. These layers are evidence of the recurrence of substantial volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) during recent times, particularly within the last 10,000 years. Improving the tephrochronological knowledge of the southernmost edge of the CVZ constitutes a crucial initial step in evaluating the ash-fall hazard of this region. In this context, the Tafí valley emerges as a prominent candidate for serving as a dependable tephrochronological "anchor point" for regional correlations. Its strength lies in its conspicuous record of Holocene tephras and its well-documented morpho-stratigraphic setting, which has been rigorously constrained by absolute age dating. Despite these advantages, some of the Holocene tephras found within Tafí valley remain uncharacterized in terms of both glass shard and mineral geochemistry. This limitation has consequently hindered their utility in facilitating regional correlations. Thus, we present the glass shard and mineral composition of these uncharacterized Holocene tephras previously identified within Tafí valley. Our findings have not only enhanced regional correlations beyond the Tafí valley but have also provided more precise source constraints. Ultimately, our work represents an upgrade of the Holocene tephrochronological framework of Northwestern Argentina and a stride toward a more reliable assessment of volcanic hazard and risk within the region.

40Ar/39Ar and U-Pb age correlations of the large Rupelian Rhodope Massif eruptions with airfall tuffs in SE, S and Central Europe

Numerous Eocene and Oligocene volcanic tuff layers within the Eastern, Central and Southern Europe sedimentary basins attest to extensive volcanic activity. Tephra dispersal of these tuffs covers areas of more than 1 000 000 km2, and the volume of erupted material to 1000s of cubic kilometers. The sources of the eruptions, however, remain unknown. Using precise 40Ar/39Ar and U-Pb radiometric dating, we correlate some of these tuff layers to three silicic Rhodope Massif Rupelian (еarly Oligocene) supereruptions dated at 33.2 Ma, 32.8 Ma and 31.6 Ma and named Dazhdovnitsa, Borovitsa and Perelik. Hence, these tuff layers can now be used as regional stratigraphic isochronous marker horizons for correlating, dating and synchronizing deposits and events in geologic and paleoenvironmental studies.

Unsuspected explosive activity of Montagne Pelée (Lesser Antilles) during the 25–10 ka period

The recent eruptive history of Montagne Pelée volcano was dominated by a period of vigorous basaltic andesitic magma production (36−25 ka) followed by a long period of lower activity (i.e., with less frequent and less voluminous eruptions) and a renewal of felsic magma production in the last 10 ka. The temporal succession of volcanic events that occurred during the 25−10 ka period and the timing of felsic magma production are currently poorly constrained. This study focuses on the stratigraphy and eruptive dynamics of the pyroclastic deposits emplaced immediately after 25 ka. New on-land stratigraphic correlations and radiocarbon dating measurements allow us identifying six major explosive eruptions. We use field data on tephra dispersal, thickness and grain-size distribution together with physical models of explosive volcanic plumes to estimate the eruption source parameters. Our results show that these events are VEI 4 eruptions with intermediate magnitudes (from M = 4.2 to M = 5.1) and intensities (from I = 10.6 to I = 11.6). These eruptions share several characteristics with the most recent Plinian eruptions of Montagne Pelée volcano (i.e., mass eruption rate, maximum column height, runout of pyroclastic density currents, glass composition). The tephra succession documents two phases of magma production rates. The first phase from 25 to 14 ka corresponds to a period of low activity with a magma production rate of 0.04 km3 kyr−1. The second phase from 14 to 10 ka is characterized by a significant increase of the volcanic activity with a magma production rate of 0.4 km3 kyr−1, consistent with previous estimates.

Historical explosive activity of Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field (Antarctica) revealed by englacial tephra deposits

Five tephra layers named BRH1 to 5 were sampled in an ice cliff located on the north-eastern flank of Mount Melbourne (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica). The texture, componentry, mineralogy, and major and trace element compositions of glass shards have been used to characterize these layers. These properties suggest that they are primary fall deposits produced from discrete eruptions that experienced varying degrees of magma/water interaction. The major and trace element glass shard analyses on single glass shards indicate that Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field is the source of these tephra layers and the geochemical diversity highlights that the eruptions were fed by compositionally diverse melts that are interpreted to be from a complex magma system with a mafic melt remobilizing more evolved trachy-andesitic to trachytic magma pockets. Geochemical compositions, along with textural and mineralogical data, have allowed correlations between two of the englacial tephra and distal cryptotephra from Mount Melbourne, recovered within a marine sediment core in the Edisto Inlet (~ 280 km northeast of Mount Melbourne), and constrain the age of these englacial tephra layers to between the third and the fourth century CE. This work provides new evidence of the intense historical explosive activity of the Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field and better constrains the rates of volcanism in northern Victoria Land. These data grant new clues on the eruptive dynamics and tephra dispersal, and considerably expand the geochemical (major and trace elements) dataset available for the Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field. In the future, this will facilitate the precise identification of tephra layers from this volcanic source and will help define the temporal and spatial correlation between Antarctic records using tephra layers. Finally, this work also yields new valuable time-stratigraphic marker horizons for future dating, synchronization, and correlations of different palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic records across large regions of Antarctica.

Tephra sedimentation and grainsize associated with pulsatory activity: the 2021 Tajogaite eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain)

Long-lasting eruptions are of complex characterization and are typically associated with challenging risk assessment and crisis management due to the usual occurrence of multiple interacting hazards evolving at different temporal and spatial scales (e.g., lava, tephra, and gas). The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma) demonstrated how even hybrid events that are mostly effusive can be associated with widespread and impacting tephra deposits as a result of a complex interplay among gas flux, conduit geometry, and magma feeding rate. In this novel study, direct observations, syn-eruptive and post-eruptive sampling, and statistical analysis of pulsatory activity have been combined to provide new insights into eruption dynamics. They show how rapid gas segregation and high magma ascent rate modulated the gas flux at multiple vents, resulting in short-time fluctuations among the different explosive styles (ash-poor gas puffing, Strombolian, violent Strombolian, and lava fountaining) and unsteady tephra ground accumulation. Various size-selective sedimentation processes were also observed, including particle aggregation and ash fingers, which have impacted the overall tephra dispersal. In fact, even though both local and total grainsize distributions of selected layers, units, and of the whole tephra blanket are unimodal with a low fine-ash content, grainsize analysis of 154 samples suggests no correlation of particles <63 μm with distance from vents. Our analyses demonstrate the need to include a detailed characterization of all products of hybrid eruptions for a comprehensive interpretation of eruptive dynamics and to use multiple classification strategies that can capture eruptive styles at different temporal scales.

A New Radar‐Based Statistical Model to Quantify Mass Eruption Rate of Volcanic Plumes

AbstractAccurate forecasting of volcanic particle (tephra) dispersal and fallout requires a reliable estimation of key Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) such as the Mass Eruption Rate (QM). QM is usually estimated from the Top Plume Height (HTP) using empirical and analytical models. For the first time, we combine estimates of HTP and QM derived from the same sensor (radar) with mean wind velocity values (vW) for lava‐fountain fed tephra plumes associated with 32 paroxysms of Mt. Etna (Italy) to develop a new statistical model based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for model parameter estimation. This model is especially designed for application to radar data to quickly infer QM from observed HTP and vW, and estimate the associated uncertainty. It can be easily applied and adjusted to data retrieved by radars worldwide, improving our capacity to quickly estimate QM and related uncertainties required for the tephra dispersal hazard.

Real-time probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard for tephra dispersal and fallout at Mt. Etna: the 2021 lava fountain episodes

Starting from February 2021, Mt. Etna (Italy) experienced a period of intense explosive activity with 17 lava fountain episodes between 16 February and 1 April 2021. During the eruptive cycle, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) issued 62 alert notifications known as VONAs (Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) to inform the aeronautical authorities about the volcanic activity. We present an automated VONA-based workflow aimed at real-time assessment of the volcanic hazard due to tephra fallout at Mt. Etna. When a VONA reporting tephra emission is issued by INGV-OE, numerical simulations accounting for atmospheric and eruptive uncertainties are automatically initialized to produce probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout and atmospheric dispersal. We applied the workflow to three lava fountains that occurred during the 2021 eruptive cycle. To test the modelling results, we compared the simulated ground load with field data, and the extent and position of the simulated volcanic cloud with the observed or estimated volcanic cloud from the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. Overall, we found a good match between simulated and observed quantities (tephra loads and volcanic cloud position), especially when accurate information on eruptive conditions (column height and duration) are supplied by the VONAs. Finally, through a statistical analysis, we found that column height and wind field are fundamental in determining tephra ground accumulation. For this reason, these parameters should be constrained by observational data as accurately as possible when performing numerical simulations, especially in the line of developing operational workflows.

First field evidence of the electrical multipolar nature of volcanic aggregates.

The description of the formation of ash aggregates is crucial to our understanding of tephra dispersal and, therefore, to the forecasting of volcanic ash concentration in the atmosphere. Regardless of the importance of electrostatic processes, particle and aggregate charge is of complex determination both in the field and in the laboratory. We have measured the bulk charge carried by single aggregates at Sakurajima volcano (Japan) by inverting the sedimentation trajectory across two high-voltage copper plates filmed using a high-speed camera. Some aggregates were filmed during their breakage caused by the external electric field, which revealed the presence of inner highly charged multipoles with bulk charge up to one order of magnitude larger than the bulk aggregate. This electrical multipolar nature reveals the key role played by multipoles in aggregate formation and the shielding effect of aggregation on particle charge.

On the feasibility and usefulness of high-performance computing in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: An application to tephra hazard from Campi Flegrei

For active volcanoes, knowledge about probabilities of eruption and impacted areas becomes valuable information for decision-makers to develop short- and long-term emergency plans, for which probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) is needed. High-resolution or spatially extended PVHA requires extreme-scale high-performance computing systems. Within the framework of ChEESE (Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth; www.cheese-coe.eu), an effort was made to generate exascale-suitable codes and workflows to collect and process in some hours the large amount of data that a quality PVHA requires. To this end, we created an optimized HPC-based workflow coined PVHA_HPC-WF to develop PVHA for a volcano. This tool uses the Bayesian event tree methodology to calculate eruption probabilities, vent-opening location(s), and eruptive source parameters (ESPs) based on volcano history, monitoring system data, and meteorological conditions. Then, the tool interacts with the chosen hazard model, performing a simulation for each ESP set or volcanic scenario (VS). Finally, the resulting information is processed by proof-of-concept-subjected high-performance data analytics (HPDA) scripts, producing the hazard maps which describe the probability over time of exceeding critical thresholds at each location in the investigated geographical domain. Although PVHA_HPC-WF can be adapted to other hazards, we focus here on tephra (i.e., lapilli and ash) transport and deposition. As an application, we performed PVHA for Campi Flegrei (CF), Italy, an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under busy air traffic routes. CF is currently in unrest, classified as being in an attention level by the Italian Civil Protection. We consider an approximate 2,000 × 2,000 × 40 km computational domain with 2 km grid resolution in the horizontal and 40 vertical levels, centered in CF. To explore the natural variability and uncertainty of the eruptive conditions, we consider a large number of VSs allowing us to include those of low probability but high impact, and simulations of tephra dispersal are performed for each of them using the FALL3D model. Results show the potential of HPC to timely execute a vast range of simulations of complex numerical models in large high-resolution computational domains and analyze great volumes of data to obtain quality hazard maps.

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: the distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.

Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards

Abstract. Regional volcanic threat assessments provide a large-scale comparable vision of the threat posed by multiple volcanoes. They are useful for prioritising risk-mitigation actions and are required by local through international agencies, industries and governments to prioritise where further study and support could be focussed. Most regional volcanic threat studies have oversimplified volcanic hazards and their associated impacts by relying on concentric radii as proxies for hazard footprints and by focussing only on population exposure. We have developed and applied a new approach that quantifies and ranks exposure to multiple volcanic hazards for 40 high-threat volcanoes in Southeast Asia. For each of our 40 volcanoes, hazard spatial extent, and intensity where appropriate, was probabilistically modelled for four volcanic hazards across three eruption scenarios, giving 697 080 individual hazard footprints plus 15 240 probabilistic hazard outputs. These outputs were overlain with open-access datasets across five exposure categories using an open-source Python geographic information system (GIS) framework developed for this study (https://github.com/vharg/VolcGIS, last access: 5 April 2022). All study outputs – more than 6500 GeoTIFF files and 70 independent estimates of exposure to volcanic hazards across 40 volcanoes – are provided in the “Data availability” section in user-friendly format. Calculated exposure values were used to rank each of the 40 volcanoes in terms of the threat they pose to surrounding communities. Results highlight that the island of Java in Indonesia has the highest median exposure to volcanic hazards, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. Hazard seasonality, as a result of varying wind conditions affecting tephra dispersal, leads to increased exposure values during the peak rainy season (January, February) in Java but the dry season (January through April) in the Philippines. A key aim of our study was to highlight volcanoes that may have been overlooked perhaps because they have not been frequently or recently active but that have the potential to affect large numbers of people and assets. It is not intended to replace official hazard and risk information provided by the individual country or volcano organisations. Rather, this study and the tools developed provide a road map for future multi-source regional volcanic exposure assessments with the possibility to extend the assessment to other geographic regions and/or towards impact and loss.

Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.

Estimating the velocity of pyroclastic density currents using an operational dual-PRF radar

Pyroclastic density currents are one of the deadliest hazards produced by a volcano. Understanding their dynamics and generation mechanisms is critical for developing better hazard mitigation strategies. This study presents a method for retrieving velocity profiles across a natural moving PDC, applied here to a PDC generated by collapsing column during the eruption of Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, on 19 February 2018 at the onset time of 08:53. We used an operational dual Pulse Repetition Frequency (PRF) weather radar, located ~7.8 km to the SE of the volcano, to estimate the velocity profile components of the volcanic plume: updraft, fallout, and horizontal advection. Doppler radar data was post-processed by applying two different filters: median and Laplacian, to correct errors associated with dealiased Doppler velocities. The Laplacian filter method was more effective in correcting the dealiasing errors by producing a more continuous velocity field without over smoothing its values. Following the dealiasing process, the velocity profile components were retrieved according to radar parameters such as Doppler velocities, copolar correlation, and reflectivity intensity factor. Initially, the pyroclastic clast was released at a lower exit velocity of ~120 m/s (84 s after the onset). A maximum of ~190 m/s exit velocity was then observed at 08:57:52 (292 s after onset). Lower exit velocity in the initial phase and less than 10 m/s estimated wind speed are the main factors causing the partial collapse of the plume at ~2.5 km height above the vent. The part of the collapsing column was associated with a more than 50 dBZ reflectivity intensity factor of fallout velocity exceeding −50 m/s at 126 s after the onset. Dilute PDCs were observed until 09:09:34 (994 s after onset), moving downslope at SE sector at a maximum velocity of −84 m/s (i.e., in the direction of the radar) . The extracted velocity components are essential parameters in the numerical model of PDCs and tephra dispersal, enforcing the benefit of weather radar to complement the remote monitoring system of volcanic hazards.

Real-Time Tephra Detection and Dispersal Forecasting by a Ground-Based Weather Radar

Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band multi-parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was performed by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity factor. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of an ensemble prediction system (EPS). Cross-validation was performed using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imageries. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results are in agreement with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution falls within the range of in situ grain size. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.

The explosive, basaltic Katla eruption in 1918, south Iceland, II: Isopach map, ice cap deposition of tephra and layer volume

Due to poor preservation and lack of proximal tephra thickness data, no comprehensive isopach map has existed for the tephra layer from the major eruption of the Katla volcano in 1918. We present such a map obtained by combining existing data on the thickness of the 1918 tephra in soil profiles with newly acquired data from the 590 km² Mýrdalsjökull ice cap which covers the Katla caldera and its outer slopes. A tephra thickness of 20–30 m on the ice surface proximal to the vents is inferred from photos taken in 1919. The greatest thicknesses presently observed, 30–35 cm, occur where the layer outcrops in the lowermost parts of the ablation areas of the Kötlujökull and Sólheimajökull outlet glaciers. A fallout location within the Katla caldera is inferred for the presently exposed tephra in both outlet glaciers, as estimates of balance velocities imply lateral transport since 1918 of ∼15 km for Kötlujökull, ∼11 km for Sólheimajökull and about 2 km for Sléttjökull. Calculations of thinning of the tephra layer during this lateral transport indicate that the presently exposed tephra layers in Kötlujökull and Sólheimajökull were respectively over 2 m and about 1.2 m thick where they fell while insignificant thinning is inferred for the broad northern lobe of Sléttjökull. The K1918 layer has an estimated volume of 0.95±0.25 km³ (corresponding to 1.15±0.30×1012 kg) whereof about 50\% fell on Mýrdalsjökull. About 90\% of the tephra fell on land and 10\% in the sea to the south and southeast of the volcano. The volume estimate obtained contains only a part of the total volume erupted as it excludes water-transported pyroclasts and any material that may have been left on the glacier bed at the vents. While three main dispersal axes can be defined (N, NE and SE), the distribution map is complex in shape reflecting tephra dispersal over a period of variable wind directions and eruption intensity. In terms of airborne tephra, Katla 1918 is the largest explosive eruption in Iceland since the silicic eruption of Askja in 1875.