Economic Tendencies Research Articles

Results of Economic Tendency Surveys in Nowcasting GDP Growth

The article proves the usefulness of including aggregate information from economic tendency surveys in the system of nowcasting of economic growth. The authors compare the efficiency of vector autoregressive models that include the economic sentiment indicator based on the results of Rosstat business activity and consumer expectations surveys, and the business climate indicator based on the results of the Bank of Russia enterprise monitoring.Statistical testing of time series of composite indicators and GDP volume index confirmed a significant correlation and causality between them, as well as the similarity of their cyclical profiles. Both indices pass cyclical turning points synchronously or ahead of the GDP volume index, their predictive capabilities are enhanced by the early availability of information. The capabilities of GDP growth nowcasting using survey information are assessed in three specifications of the vector autoregressive model with dummy variables. On the in-sample period, the model including two composite indicators and the GDP volume index demonstrates the highest accuracy.The proposed approach allows us to obtain flash estimates of GDP growth prospects that are significantly ahead of the official statistical information

Adoption of Imitation Modeling Tools in Industrial Small and Medium Enterprises: Value Creation and Competitive Advantage

Currently, value creation is considered as a major part of strategic planning and a source of competitive advantage. Competition increases and customers ask for higher service level, but resources are always limited. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) often face the enlarged requirements of rapid changes created by the modern economic tendencies. Therefore, businesses should react promptly and without spending excessive resources (otherwise SMEs may simply stop existing). On this issue, imitation modeling tools give a considerable advantage to SMEs: almost any decisions of strategic or operational management levels can be tested before implementing real business processes. The research question arises at the point of defining the conceptual framework for testing, adopting and implementing new practices (such as digital technologies and projects) with imitation modeling tools. Currently, business excellence often depends on how and at what extent digital solutions transform the traditional way of managing operations. This study is focused on considering many factors influencing logistics business processes in SMEs. The adjusted three-zone model is suggested for achieving operational excellence in industrial SMEs with imitation modeling tools. The suggested approach is based upon the triple bottom line concept, and creates value from several perspectives: economic, social and environmental.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

In the era of globalization and the advancement of information technology, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market encounters economic uncertainty, particularly amid efforts to overcome the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the challenges posed by a full-scale armed invasion by Russia. This situation introduces a range of short-term and long-term obstacles, notably disrupting established trade routes and supply chains, impacting the balance of imports and exports, and placing significant strain on the foreign exchange market among other areas. This article aims to analyze the current peculiarities of the domestic foreign exchange market’s operation amidst economic uncertainty, focusing on the impact of governmental and regulatory actions on its dynamics, especially throughout 2022-2023. It delves into the regulatory measures enacted to stabilize the foreign exchange market under martial law conditions. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has implemented several countermeasures in response to these challenges, including covering 37% of the currency supply, which resulted in a reduction in daily transactions and an enhanced role in market equilibrium. The measures also include restrictions on capital transactions and the facilitation of international assistance to satisfy foreign exchange demands. The future outlook of the foreign exchange market is contingent upon economic recuperation, foreign investments, macroeconomic policies, geopolitical risks, and regulatory frameworks. The significance of domestic reforms and international support is underscored as pivotal. It is also noted that global economic tendencies will influence Ukraine’s foreign exchange market in the aftermath of the conflict. This study is aimed at providing insights for professional analysts of the foreign exchange market, governmental bodies, and international financial institutions. Future investigations will explore the implications of the NBU’s policies on the foreign exchange market and their potential to foster economic recovery in Ukraine amidst prevailing challenges and threats.

Džejms Junker - posthladnoratovski horizonti Svetske države

Starting from the circumstances in the post-Cold War period, the Paper provides a cross-section through theoretical works that are trying to revive interest in the idea of global supranational integration, ie the idea of the World State, regardless of whether they treat it affirmatively, ambivalently or negatively. Then, among the rare examples of affirmative attitude towards the realization of the idea of the World State, the work is focused on the proposal of the American economist James Junker presented in his books "World Union on the Horizon" (1993) and "The Idea of World Government: From Ancient Times to the 21st Century" (2011). The Paper, using analytical and synthetical methods, analyzes in detail Junker's economic views and institutional proposals for building a "minimal" World State (which he calls the Federal Union of Democracies) as well as his global plan to bridge the gap between the rich North and the poor South, which he sees as main obstacle of supranational integration. The final part of the Paper gives a critical review of Junker's ideas, which takes into account modern economic and political processes at the time of the emergence of a multipolar world. The growth of a multipolar world on the remains of its bipolar and unipolar predecessors shows other economic tendencies than those predicted by Junker. The new regional centers of power are interconnected and have their own interregional initiatives based on mutual benefit, beyond the West and its plans to reduce the economic gap between North and South. Now poor South isn't waiting for help from the developed North (i.e., the West), but it is getting the basis for independent development from the East, ie. its strengthening centers of power. All in all, although evidently flawed, one-sided, and naive, Junker's moderate proposal for a Federal Union of global reach stands as one of the few original proposals for a "minimum" World State in the post-Cold War era. With all his atypicality, Junker's proposal maintains the hope of the proponents of the idea of the World state who are still convinced that the risks of embarking on such ventures are not only justified but also necessary, taking into account the potential advantages of global political integrations both in the field of economy, politics, social sphere and ecology

ЕКОЛОГІЧНИЙ ТРЕНД У ФОРМУВАННІ БІЗНЕС-МОДЕЛІ

Current economic tendencies stimulate entrepreneurs to seek innovative and sometimes revolutionary approaches to business conduct. Companies aiming to be trendsetters are characterized by their significant impact on addressing current social and environmental challenges. Projections indicate a nearly quadruple growth in the global market for green technologies and sustainable development. Nowadays, companies have access to modern tools in order to minimize negative environmental impact. Digitalization and sharing economy promote for generating tools to address environmental issues, with generational shifts intensifying societal focus on such concerns. Consequently, adherence to principles of sustainable development, particularly in the context of addressing environmental challenges, is a crucial aspect of modern business performance. Ukrainian businesses face the challenge of adapting to the European Green Deal, necessitating a review of their environmental goals and strategies for competitiveness. With the establishment of ambitious environmental goals, companies are compelled to reshape their business models. The influence of the environmental trend on shaping each element of a company's business model is important. Business model Canvas avails to recognize this impact. Analyzed customers segments and offering eco-centric value propositions are crucial for success. Key activities, especially in resource-intensive sectors like manufacturing, require innovation for environmental responsibility. Collaboration with stakeholders is essential for eco-friendly execution, as companies remain dependent on suppliers whose resources can provide neutralize harmful environmental impacts. Thus, environmental production primarily relies on innovation, despite the additional investments and risks involved.

The Problem of “Art-House” and Economic Tendencies in the Project “Great Vladivostok”

Abstract The project “Great Vladivostok,” conducted during the period of Nikita Khrushchev, was very important for the Primorye region and state, but remained little known in the wider history of the USSR due to the policy of the Soviet government after 1964. It was not only part of the great housing reform in the country but was also an attempt at establishing the Soviet position (through the large new city of Vladivostok) in the East Asian region. However, many processes within this project are unknown for various reasons—primarily political ones. We consider and analyze one of these processes, the question of “art-house” and “economic” styles in “Great Vladivostok.” The authors have used oral history materials (for example, collected interviews), visual sources, written works, and records from Russian archives to consider and analyze the results of the “art-house” and economic styles in “Great Vladivostok” as applied to housing developments.

The future of social policy in assessment of the student youth: the experience of a socio-pedagogical research

Introduction. Global crises connected with the epidemiological situation, negative tendencies in economics, and international conflicts in 21st century are accompanied by increased attention of population including the student youth to social support measures and functioning of the social system as a whole. Therefore there is a contradiction between the necessity of future social policy image creation in the view of the contemporary studying youth and insufficient detectability of symbolic constructions of higher school students. The research aim is to conduct a socio-pedagogical analysis and determine symbolic constructions representing images of future social policy in contemporary Russia and perspectives its future development in the view of the student youth. Materials and methods. The authors conducted their research found on studying international documents, Laws of Russian Federation, woks of leading scientists, practitioners in the sphere of political science, sociology, social pedagogy and other related disciplines. The problem is viewed in terms of two main paradigmatic solutions: paternalism and liberalism. The methodological basis of the study is based on the application of a systematic, integrated approach to research of perspectives and images of social policy in the assessment of the student youth. Sociological survey results were used as the main empirical base, the survey was conducted in January 2023 by the method of representative sociological survey (questionnaire) of students in Lipetsk region. 360 people from higher education students were interviewed as respondents. Research results. While analyzing goals of social policy, prioritized focus-groups and factors greatly influencing the perspective development of social protection sphere the authors identified preferable for the studying youth social policy and perspectives of Russian social situation development. Students considering the format of social policy prefer coherent targeted support of all categories of people (71,7%). Most students hold the state responsible for functioning of virtually all spheres of social life. Young people do not see the state leaving the sphere of social policy; do not support the transfer of social protection functions to citizens and business organizations, linking their positive expectation with health care (44,7%), quality of education (42,5%) and fertility (41,4%), support the lowering of the retirement age (73,3%), expansion of pension public funding (59,2%). Preferable image of social policy is closely connected with the image of Russia as a country surplus budget of which makes it possible to finance socially without direct borrowing from citizens (66,9%). Conclusions. The results obtained can be applied when making management decisions on the formation of social policy at all management levels and implementing social policy and priority national projects “Education” and “Demography”. Keywords: higher education, students, social policy, social support of citizens

Identity Group Stratification, Political Economy & Inclusive Economic Rights

Abstract This essay demonstrates the necessity of formally incorporating identity group stratification as a pillar alongside economic and political understandings of any political economy framework. We make our case by juxtaposing mutual inadequacies and myopic limitations associated with two influential but polar political economy frameworks-Marxian and public choice theory-since neither framework formally incorporates an identity group stratification lens beyond class reductionism. Finally, in addition to presenting an identity group stratification lens to economic thought, we present an Inclusive Economic Rights policy framework as a critical baseline component of human rights, foregrounding political economic tendencies toward identity group stratifications as a pathway forward to achieve a “moral political economy.”

Economic Tendencies and Bubble Identification in the Metaverse

Economic Tendencies and Bubble Identification in the Metaverse

Детермінація національних загроз як передумова формування інтегрованої системи економічної безпеки на загальнонаціональному рівні

The article considers specificity of determination of national threats as prerequisites for formation of an integrated system of economic security at the national level. It is noted that the integrated system of economic security is a complex structure that includes various components that cover the main spheres of functioning of the national economy. It is defined that the growing complexity of the global geopolitical and economic environment increases the need to create an effective system for managing the country’s economic security. It is noted that the main advantage of the integrated system of economic security of the State is the possibility of its full consideration of fluctuations of the global economic system through careful analysis and monitoring of economic tendencies, changes in world trade or financial markets, and other key global factors. This becomes of particular importance in the view of the State adapting in a timely manner to changes in the global economic environment while ensuring its economic stability and security. The role of determination of national threats in formation of an integrated system of economic security is analyzed. The key factors influencing the economic security of the country, such as geopolitical location, natural resources, technological development, demographic situation, level of corruption, etc., are examined. It is found that the determination of national threats allows to identify the potential risks and vulnerabilities of the national economy. The principles of formation of strategic approaches and policy of ensuring economic security at the national level have been proposed. The peculiarities of introduction of integrated systems of economic security on the basis of determination of national threats are considered. The importance of studying national threats for the formation of an effective system of economic security is proved. The application of the analysis of determination of national threats for the development of strategies for ensuring stability and development of the national economy has been proposed.

Trend rasta cena hrane - faktor u promeni ponašanja konzumenata u pogledu rukovanja otpadnom hranom

This paper aims to determine the influence of food prices in changing behaviour regarding reducing food waste in households. The motive for this research primarily originates from the ongoing global economic tendency of increasing the prices of energy sources which is also a direct factor affecting the prices of food products. Survey data were collected via questionnaires in North Macedonia. A descriptive and empirical presentation interprets the attitudes of different categories of consumers. The research concludes that prices significantly impact awareness of the importance of food. Hence, respondents agree that the amount of food waste in the home is reduced in the last year.

EU-Sub-Saharan Africa relations: The history of (un)equal partnership

This paper explores some exploitative economic tendencies in Africa-EU relations, tracking them from the Treaty of Rome, continuously through Yaounde, Lome and Cotonou initiatives. As time passes, the exploitative aspect of this relationship is getting vaguer through vocabulary changes and more subtle economic mechanisms. Each new cooperation framework tried to emphasize the importance of equality in the EU-Africa partnership but the inequality between the two parties constantly grew. This is the case with the newest, Global gateway framework. This investment plan is an adhoc initiative designed to counter Chinese interests in the region. The EU tends to be a norm creator in the African continent. The paper reexamines the capability of the EU to fulfill that role.

Моделювання змінення цін на стандартні номери в польських готелях (Краків)

The tendencies in the development of the hotel industry in Europe and in Poland in particular are analyzed. Extensive and relevant statistical material was taken from booking sites as of November 2022. Most often, the analysis of economic tendencies in the development of the hotel industry is based on expert assessments or statistical data from travel agencies. The conducted analysis is based on mathematical modeling and the use of Microsoft Excel mathematical and statistical tools. The world market of hotel services is constantly changing, has a dynamic structure, develops in interaction with other markets of goods and services, is influenced by the market environment. Therefore, modern hotels have to adapt to a new type of tourists with rather high requirements for accommodation conditions. In Europe, there is a tendency to stay in 1* and 2* hotels. The study covers data from the Polish city of Krakow. These data represent the spatial series, on the basis of which regression mathematical models are built for evaluating the tendencies of changes in the level of prices for the corresponding hotel rooms. The series are spatial because the data are collected at a specific point in time, but from different objects located geographically at different points. The built models are not representative, but they provide an opportunity to assess the tendencies of price growth or decline and the possibility of entering into crisis economic occurrences. The work is devoted to the analysis of tendencies of changes in hotel room prices and the evaluation of these changes using the construction of regression economic-mathematical models of space and time series. The relevance and significance of the study lies in the analysis and assessment of price tendencies for standard hotel rooms in the popular segment of 1* and 2* hotels in Poland. This country is Ukraine’s closest neighbor, therefore the study of economic trends in the development of its hotel industry is relevant not only for tendencies in Europe, but also for the future of the hotel segment of our country. The conducted analysis showed the presence of a mathematically defined tendency towards a moderate increase in prices for «standard» hotel rooms. The price function for these hotel rooms is an increasing one, but it does not cross the growth limit of the corresponding exponential function built on the same spatial number series. But such a tendency should not lead to any crisis occurrences in the hotel sector of Poland

From crisis into crisis – the previous decade of Ukraine’s economy

The Ukrainian economy has been highly cyclical over the past 15 years. Regardless of whether we consider a series of domestic/foreign political events (2013-2015), an external financial/economic shock (2008-2009), or a shock caused by a pandemic (2020-2021) as the trigger, the Ukrainian economy has been hit by a severe economic crisis every five years or so since 2008, which has impeded its from catching-up at the regional level. From Ukraine's perspective, the period that started with the global financial and economic crisis was marked not only by global recessions (2008-2009 and 2020-2021), affecting both the neighboring countries and the world economy as a whole, but also by a crisis of local origin (2014-2015) – involving an annexation/occupation of territory which is not recognized by international law and an armed conflict – which, by its very nature, exacerbated the country's devergence from international norms. Consequently, Ukraine – compared to neighboring countries – was in a completely different situation when the pandemic arrived, since its economy was characterized by a slow but stable growth and recovery phase which had followed a severe recession marked by armed struggles, rising Russian-Ukrainian tensions, internal political skirmishes, reform initiatives, Western integration efforts, lending and aid programs, and by laws restricting the rights of national minorities and all the diplomatic conflicts that went along with them. Against this background, an assessment of the success of the pandemic response cannot be complete without an analysis of the main economic indicators for the preceding period 2013-2019. Thus, this study examines the economic tendencies of the given period, while the regional comparison of the state of the Ukrainian economy will provide us important information about the effectiveness of recovery from the recession caused by the Eastern Ukrainian conlict, namely: the measure of catching-up or lagging behind compared to the neighboring countries.

Extractivist States: Contesting and Negotiating the “Commodities Consensus” in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Across Latin America

Extractivist States: Contesting and Negotiating the “Commodities Consensus” in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Across Latin America

Religious aberration in Nigerian contemporary society: A critique

Religion has been a part of sociopolitical movements from the dawn of history. With a strong emphasis on morality, religion and religious people were expected to live an exemplary life in society. Thus, religion is a veritable tool for shaping and stirring of the human society. However, religion has placed immense stress on public discourse as the literature on the manipulation of religion by religious leaders for their personal gain and aggrandisement is scanty. This research intends to fill this gap. The theoretical framework of this study is functionalism. It adopts a qualitative research approach. The data was derived mainly from primary and secondary sources. The discussions in this article expose the religious impropriety in Nigerian society, which includes intolerance, hypocrisy, commercialisation of religion, manipulation and exploitation of the adherents, subjecting them to laziness, frustration, desperation and poverty. This alters individual rights and personal development, which are deterrents to progress and oppose the religious tenets of holiness, truthfulness and sacredness. This article advocates good religious values for good behaviour to enhance the social structure and boost societal development.Contribution: This contemporary time in Nigeria is the era of religious explosion, where there are uncountable new religious faiths and groups. Religious practices in Nigeria are commercialised. Church leaders have abandoned the precepts on which the Church and other religious practices are founded to pursue economic or commercial-oriented interests and tendencies.

Determining impact of digitalization on the potential-forming space of regions in the context of sustainable development

The economic essence of digitalization of economic systems is investigated in the article. The challenges of digitalization of the economy of the regions include: the need for consistency of the dynamics of digitalization with economic and legal principles and institutional transformations; digital infrastructure development; intellectualization and digital literacy of the population; access to information and communication innovations. Guidelines for digitalization of the economy of the regions allow to ensure the following results: acceleration of economic business processes and innovative development; increasing the openness and accessibility of knowledge, information, communications; reduction of time and cost in production processes, sales and product promotion; formation of information databases for managing large data sets and accelerating the exchange of information; transformation of economic relations and adaptability to the demands of society. The implementation of the described goals and projects of digitalization of the regions requires the activation of economic potential, as well as the transformation of the institutional environment of the region. Economic factors and tendencies of digital activity of the population of the region are described. Promising areas have been identified to further stimulate the implementation of programs and projects to digitize regions and increase their investment attractiveness to attract financial support.

Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle—the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate and consist of economic tendency surveys results from many countries around the world. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection procedure, in which a pre-set correlation threshold and the targeted leads to the reference series are used as selection criteria. In the second stage, the selected variables are combined and transformed into the respective composite indicators, computed as the first partial least squares factor with the reference series as response variable. We analyse the characteristics of the two new indicators in a pseudo real-time setting and demonstrate that both are useful additions to the small number of indicators for the global business cycle published so far. Finally, yet importantly, the Barometers were quick to plunge in the beginning of March 2020 and have since then given a reliable real-time reflection of the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Europe and Ottoman City Imaginations and Economic Tendencies in the 16th-19th Centuries

Kentselleşme, hangi kültürde olursa olsun, ortaçağ sonrasında çoğunlukla yüksek konfor/rahatlık ve düşük maliyet/sıkıntıya doğru artan bir biçimde yol almıştır. Bu çalışmada XVI-XIX. yüzyıl Avrupa ve Osmanlı kentlerinin kentselleşme yönelimleri, model grafikler üzerinden incelenecek; grafiklerde, bir şehirde yaşayanların, kentselleşmeye konu varlık ve hadiselere maliyet/konfor ilişkisi açısından nasıl yaklaştıkları modellenecektir. Optimum yönelim kavramı, toplumun manevi unsurları için yüksek güven ve düşük kaygıya doğru seyri vurgulamaktadır. Güven: derinlik, inanç, bilinç ve yakınlaştırıcı bireyselleşmeyi içerdiği gibi kaygı da endişe ve yalınlaştırıcı bireyselleşmeyi gerektirmektedir. Bir xy düzleminde, yüksek güven ve düşük kaygı istikametindeki tercih noktalarının bir araya gelmesiyle optimum yönelim eğrisi; yüksek konfor ve düşük maliyet noktalarının bir araya gelmesiyle ise optimum yönelim doğrusu oluşmaktadır. Bir sosyal ünitenin kentselleşmesinde ağırlıklı olarak insani-psişik değerlerle ilgili tercihler optimum yönelim eğrisini; iktisadi-rasyonel değerlerle ilgili tercihler ise optimum yönelim doğrusunu etkilemektedir.

The Role of Political Economy in Determining the Goals of Firm Laws

The emergence of political schools, especially leftist views, created a closer link between economy on the one hand and political views and schools on the other hand. In fact, prior to the advent of economics-based political schools, the relationship between political schools and economics was not clear, and instead, economic tendencies were mostly stressed by scholars and business organizations. Despite the fact that mercantilism did not last long, and survived for almost only two centuries, it exerted a profound impact on the structure of the western economy. Although the classical school, and mainly Adam Smith, played a role in undermining the idea of mercantilism, it lost its position with the rise of nationalist ideas in the 19th century. In fact, the discriminatory implications and issues of the liberal approach led to the boom of socialism. In the field of political economy, the function of corporate governance has long been of interest to scholars, at the core of which are the two shareholder-based and stakeholder-based views. While the former highlights the interests of the ultimate owners of the company, the latter underscores the interests of the community and all stakeholders as the goal of corporate governance, and both pursue different and sometimes conflicting objectives. The basis of such a difference lies in the discrepancy between individualism and socialism, an influential factor in goal determination of firms.