Temporary Life Expectancy Research Articles

Educational Disparities in Preventable Deaths: Do They Explain the Longevity Gap Between Mexico and Spain?

Determine how preventable causes of death contribute to the life expectancy gap between Mexico and Spain. We used a linear integral decomposition to analyze the impact of preventable mortality on life expectancy between ages 30-75 (temporary life expectancy) between Mexico and Spain in 2018. Additionally, we computed cause-deleted life tables to estimate potential gains in temporary life expectancy. Analyses were stratified by educational attainment, sex, and age. Low-educated Mexicans showed the largest gains in temporary life expectancy from removing preventable deaths (3.4 years for males, 1.6 for females), partially explaining the gap with Spain. Removing these deaths would close the gap almost entirely due to a higher relative decrease for middle- and high-educated individuals. While access to adequate healthcare is crucial for improving population health, appropriate non-medical public policies can significantly reduce mortality disparities between Mexico and Spain, especially for individuals from higher educational backgrounds.

Life Expectancy Changes and Their Consequences for Pension System in Finland and the Czech Republic

Finland and the Czech Republic are among the countries where population ageing has been the most pronounced in the last decade. The aim of the paper is to describe future development of life expectancy in the context of pension system reforms that are currently prepared by the politicians in analysed countries. One-year age-and-sex-specific mortality rates for population aged 0 to 100+ were taken from the Human Mortality Database for 1950–2021 and projected to 2050. Three stochastic models were calculated in R and compared. Suitable was Lee-Carter model modified by Li-Lee-Gerland (with rotation of bx parameter) because of low infant mortality in both populations. Projected year-on-year change of life expectancy was comparable to the Eurostat, but absolute values were too optimistic in our case. Values of temporary life expectancy between 60 and 70 years and indices of annual relative changes revealed relatively fast pace of increase in life expectancy in both populations which the pension systems should také into account.

Describing Mortality Differentials from the Perspective of Various Effects on Life Expectancy and Life Disparity Using Decomposition Methods: The Case of Czechia

The growth in life expectancy has accelerated since the 1990s in Czechia, which preceded a long period of stagnation or even a decrease during the communist era from the 1960s. This article aims to evaluate differences in mortality in terms of the impact of various effects on life expectancy and life disparity before and after the Velvet Revolution in Czechia. Three indicators were considered – life expectancy at birth, temporary life expectancy between ages 0 and 65, and the life disparity measure e-dagger (e†). In the article, we followed the decomposition method according to Arriaga (1984). Based on this method, the effect of mortality was further decomposed into an exclusive effect reflecting improved or worsened mortality in the given age group and into an interaction effect reflecting changes in mortality as a whole. Based on the results, it was found that the indirect effect prevailed in the case of life expectancy, while the direct effect dominated in the life disparity measure. Furthermore, we focused on the differences in life expectancy at birth between the sexes and between the two countries forming parts of the former Czechoslovakia – Czechia and Slovakia. For this purpose, we followed the contour decomposition method, so that we distinguished the effect of changes in mortality corresponding to the initial period and the effect of changes corresponding to changes in mortality in terms of time.

Does time heal all wounds? Life course associations between child welfare involvement and mortality in prospective cohorts from Sweden and Britain.

Child welfare involvement reflects childhood adversity and is associated with increased adult mortality, but it remains unclear how this association changes over the life course. Drawing on the Stockholm Birth Cohort Multigenerational Study (Sweden) and the National Childhood Development Study (Great Britain) this study examines whether inequalities within these cohorts diverge or converge. Involvement with child welfare services (ICWS) is divided into two levels (‘child welfare contact’ and ‘out-of-home care’). For each cohort, we quantify absolute health inequalities as differences in cumulative probabilities of death (18–58 years) and temporary life expectancy; and relative inequalities as hazard ratios in ten-year intervals and ratios of lifetime lost. Persistently, ICWS was associated with premature mortality. The strength of the association varied by age, sex and level of ICWS. Consistently across both countries, the most robust relationship was between out-of-home care and mortality, with statistically significant age-specific hazard ratios ranging between 1.8 and 3.4 for males and 1.8–2.1 for females. Child welfare contact that did not result in out-of-home placement showed less consistent results. Among females the mortality gap developed later compared to males. Estimates attenuate after controlling for family socioeconomic and other background variables but patterns remain intact. Our results show that absolute inequalities widen with increasing age, while relative inequalities might peak in early adulthood and then stabilize in midlife. The relative disadvantage among looked-after children in early adulthood is heightened by overall low rates of mortality at this age. Absolute inequality increases with age, highlighting the weight of the accumulation of disadvantage in mortality over time. The bulk of excess deaths that could be attributed to ICWS occurs from midlife onwards. Mechanisms that uphold the disadvantage after childhood experiences require further exploration. This study highlights that the association between out-of-home care and premature mortality seems to transcend welfare systems.

Contribution of avoidable causes of death to premature mortality in Poland and selected European countries

Our study, availing the new, agreed by the OECD and Eurostat, lists of preventable and treatable causes of death, seeks to quantify the contribution of avoidable causes to premature mortality and its dynamics in Poland and Central European countries – Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia, in comparison with Sweden serving as a benchmark country in 1999–2017. We calculated age standardised death rates for the broad groups of avoidable causes and more specific ones, which comprised preventable and treatable cancer and diseases of the circulatory system (DCS), preventable injuries and alcohol-related diseases. Deaths from not avoidable causes were also analysed. The analysis of time trends in the death rates and calculation of the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) for the overall trend were performed with joint-point models. The contribution of changes in mortality from avoidable causes to increase life expectancy during 1999–2017 and contribution of the difference in mortality from these causes to the difference in life expectancy between five countries and Sweden were based on the decomposition of temporary life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e(0-75)]. For the calculation of life expectancy, we used the classic Chiang method and the decomposition of life expectancy by the death causes and age was conducted with the Arriaga method. The AAPC of death rates from avoidable causes in 1999–2017 was similar in all the countries but Lithuania, where the decline started later. The decline in the death rates from not avoidable causes is much slower than the rates from avoidable causes. Mortality from treatable causes was decreasing faster than from preventable causes in most populations. In 1999–2017, the average rate of mortality decline for preventable cancer was greater among men than among women, while for treatable cancer the sex-related differences were much smaller and in favour of women. As for preventable and treatable death from DCS, their decrease was faster among women than men in all the countries but Sweden. Improvements in mortality from causes that could be avoided through prevention or treatment made substantial positive contributions to the overall change in life expectancy in all the countries. The differences in temporary life expectancy e(0-75) between the analysed Central European countries and Sweden were much smaller in 2017 than in 1999, due to the reduction of the gap in mortality from avoidable causes. Our results show that among men, and to a lesser extent among women, mortality from preventable causes contributes more than mortality from causes that can be effectively treated to shorter life expectancy in the countries of Central Europe than in Sweden.
 This indicates that in reducing the health gap between the inhabitants of Central Europe and Western Europe, the healthcare system should consider disease prevention even to a greater extent than just treating them.

Youth homicide in Mexico and its impact in male life expectancy: geographical variations and associated factors.

This study analyzes the impact of youth homicide (between 15 and 29 years of age) on male life expectancy in Mexico and its 32 states in the periods 2004-2006 and 2014-2016, and identifies the factors that best explain the variations in the years of male life expectancy lost (YMLEL) due to youth homicide at the state level in 2014-2016. Based on official data, male temporary life expectancy (MTLE) between 0 to 85 years of age and years of male life expectancy lost, in total and due to youth homicide, were calculated in each three-year period. Through a linear regression analysis, factors associated with the variations of the years of male life expectancy lost due to youth homicide among states were identified. The male temporary life expectancy decreased between the three-year periods in the country and in 25 states; years of male life expectancy lost due to youth homicide increased in 31 states, in eight of them with a figure higher than 0.5 years in the 2014-2016 period. Factors such as the presence of drug trafficking, illegal firearms and the perception of insecurity explain the variations in the years of male life expectancy lost due to youth homicide within the Mexican states in the 2014-2016 period.

Violence deaths and its impact on life expectancy: a comparison between Mexico and Brazil.

Using official data, this study analyzed violent deaths (homicide, suicide, events of undetermined intent and deaths due to legal intervention) in Brazil and Mexico in the three-year periods 2002-2004 and 2012-14, the impact of these causes of death on life expectancy in both countries and the role of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL). Abridged life tables were constructed for both countries for both periods. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL between zero and 80 years by selected causes and age groups were calculated for each triennium. The leading cause of YLEL among men was homicide in both periods in Brazil (1.5 years) and in the second period in Mexico (one year). Violent deaths (VD) accounted for around 16% of YLEL in Brazil and 13% in Mexico in 2012-2014. Among women, YLEL due to homicides and suicides showed the greatest relative increase in both countries, although VD accounted for barely 3% of total YLEL. The highest percentage of YLEL due to VDwas found among the 15 to 29 year age groups in both countries and for both sexes. The increase in rates of VD in Mexico, above all among young people, has curbed further increases in life expectancy in recent years, especially among men. Likewise, the high rates of VD in Brazil in both periods have hindered the growth of life expectancy.

The increase of firearm mortality and its relationship with the stagnation of life expectancy in Mexico.

This study analyzes firearms mortality (FA) and their impact on life expectancy in Mexico -compared to other causes of deaths- during the three-year periods 2000-2002 and 2010-2012 and the weight of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL) due to this cause. Based on official death and population data, abridged life tables in Mexico were constructed for the three-year periods studied. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL for aged 15 to 75 by selected causes and age groups were calculated in each three-year period. Among men, FA mortality went from being the cause less YLEL caused in 2000-2002 to be the main cause of YLEL between 15 and 75 years in 2010-2012. Among women, YLEL for FA mortality had a higher relative growth. In both sexes, the greatest increase in YLEL by FA mortality was between 20 and 34 years. Findings indicate that the increase in FA mortality, especially among young people, has substantially contributed to the stagnation of life expectancy in recent years, and even his decline in the case of men. This reflects that violence linked to the FA is not only a security problem but also a collective health problem that must be copied in an interdisciplinary and intersectoral form if it is to increase the life expectancy of the country.

Dynamic Life Table for Guwahati City: An Urban Set Up of North Eastern India

The period life table is based on the assumption that the mortality experienced by the population in a given period will remain substantially the same throughout their lives. However, the past records shows continuous decline in mortality, leading to the possibility of a case where the mortality rates does not remained the same. Although, India has experienced continuous decline in mortality rates since more than two decades, Assam is one of the underdeveloped state where mortality rates including infant mortality rate is found to be higher in comparison to other developing states of India. However, during recent years mortality declines have appeared to be more rapid in an urban area of Assam, Guwahati, which is also a premier city of North-Eastern India. This paper attempts to study the pattern of mortality along with life expectancy under dynamic scenario in Guwahati. Further, an attempt has also been made to formulate temporary life expectancy under dynamic consideration and thereby measures the differences between period and dynamic temporary life expectancies.

Sensitivity of model-based human mortality measures to exclusion of the Makeham or the frailty parameter

Adult human mortality is well captured by a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model that accounts for the exponential increase in individual hazards, the existence of age-independent mortality component, and unobserved heterogeneity in the study population. The article studies the impact of neglecting statistically significant extrinsic mortality or frailty on human mortality measures: aggregate indicators like life expectancy, life disparity, entropy, and the Gini coefficient are little affected while the rates of individual and population aging, the modal age at death, and temporary life expectancy can be substantially distorted. Trifon I. MISSOV, Assistant Professor, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany and Institute of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany. E-mail: missov@demogr.mpg.de . Laszlo NEMETH, Guest Researcher, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. E-mail: nemeth@demogr.mpg.de .

Changes in mortality by cause of death in Polish voivodships

This study analyses the avoidable mortality in Poland at the regional level of 16 voivodships over the last two decades, 1991–2010. The author divided the mortality causes into three groups: treatable disease, preventable diseases and ischemic heart disease. We used a decomposition technique to calculate the contribution of changes in mortality from these conditions to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 for the two periods 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 by sex and age group. The analyses were based on temporary life expectancy between birth and age 75 (e0–75). Chiang’s method was used for constructing abridged life tables, and Arriaga’s method was used for decomposition. The results revealed differences in the temporary life expectancy level and pace of change between voivodships, causes of deaths and sex.

Mortalidad por lesiones de tráfico y su impacto en la esperanza de vida: comparativa entre México y España

ObjectiveTo determine the impact of mortality due to motor vehicle traffic injuries (MVTI) compared with other causes of death on life expectancy in Mexico and Spain during the three-year periods 2000-2002 and 2010-2012 and the weight of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL) due to this cause. MethodsBased on official death and population data, abridged life tables in Mexico and Spain were constructed for the three-year periods studied. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL for persons aged 15 to 75 years were calculated by selected causes (MVTI, diabetes mellitus, malignant neoplasms and ischemic heart diseases) and age groups in each three-year period. ResultsIn Spain, YLEL decreased in both sexes from all the causes studied, especially MVTI; this reduction was greater in the younger ages. In addition, temporary life expectancy increased. In Mexico, YLEL due to MVTI increased in men, mainly in young people, and remained unchanged among women. Temporary life expectancy declined in men but increased slightly among women. ConclusionsThe reduction in YLEL due to MVTI in Spain has contributed to increased life expectancy. By contrast, the increase in YLEL due to MVTI among Mexican men has contributed to the decline in male life expectancy.

Diabetes mellitus: Aporte al cambio en esperanza de vida en México 1990, 2000 y 2010

To analyze the level and trend of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Mexico, and its contribution to the changes in temporary life expectancy between 20 and 100 years of age, in the period 1990-2010. Data comes from National Mortality Vital Statistics and from the Population Census from the Mexican National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI). We calculated standardized mortality rates. To analyze the impact of DM on the temporary life expectancy (80e20) we used Pollard’s method. Between 1990 and 2010, the standardized mortality rate for people 20 years and older increased by 224 %. The contribution of DM for men to the change in life expectancy during 1990-2000 was a reduction of 0.31 years; for women was a reduction of 0.32 years; in the period 2000-2010 the reduction continued for both men and women (0.34 and 0.12 years respectively). Mortality from DM continues to increase, especially for men, but for women a modest reduction was observed. It is essential to apply health services and programs aimed at reducing mortality from this cause, focused on prevention, early detection and timely treatment, with concrete actions on vulnerable groups.

Growing gaps: The importance of income and family for educational inequalities in mortality among Swedish men and women 1990-2009.

Although absolute levels of mortality have decreased among Swedish men and women in recent decades, educational inequalities in mortality have increased, especially among women. The aim of this study is to disentangle the role of income and family type in educational inequalities in mortality in Sweden during 1990-2009, focusing on gender differences. Data on individuals born in Sweden between the ages of 30 and 74 years were collected from total population registries, covering a total of 529,275 deaths and 729 million person-months. Temporary life expectancies (age 30-74 years) by education were calculated using life tables, and rate ratios were estimated with Poisson regression with robust standard errors. Temporary life expectancy improved among all groups except low educated women. Relative educational inequalities in mortality (RRs) increased from 1.79 to 1.98 among men and from 1.78 to 2.10 among women. Variation in family type explained some of the inequalities among men, but not among women, and did not contribute to the trend. Variation in income explained a larger part of the educational inequalities among men compared to women and also explained the increase in educational inequalities in mortality among men and women. Increasing educational inequalities in mortality in Sweden may be attributed to the increase in income inequalities in mortality.

Trends in U.S. life expectancy gradients: the role of changing educational composition.

I examined age patterns and the role of shifting educational distributions in driving trends in educational gradients in life expectancy among non-Hispanic Whites between 1991 and 2005. Data were from the 1986-2004 National Health Interview Survey with mortality follow-up through 2006. Life expectancies were computed by sex, period and education. Age decompositions of life expectancy gradients and composition-adjusted life expectancies were computed to account for age patterns and shifting educational distributions. Life expectancy at age 25 among White men increased for all education groups, decreased among the least-educated White women and increased among White women with college degrees. Much of the decline in measured life expectancy for White women with less than a high school education comes from the 85+ age group. Educational gradients in life expectancy widened for White men and women. One-third of the gradient is due to ages below 50. Approximately 26% (0.7 years) and 87% (0.8 years) of the widening of the gradient in life expectancy between ages 25 and 85 for White women and men is attributable to shifting education distributions. Over half of the decline in temporary life expectancy among the least-educated White women is due to compositional change. Life expectancy has increased among White men for all education groups and has decreased among White women with less than a high school education, though not to the extent reported in previous studies. The fact that a large proportion of the change in education-specific life expectancy among women is due to the 85+ age group suggests changes in institutionalization may be affecting estimates. Much of the change in education-specific life expectancy and the growth in the educational gradient in life expectancy is due to the shifting distribution of individuals across education categories.

Convergent and divergent trends in the European mortality: What is the position of Czechia?

Study of convergence and divergence tendencies could be taken almost as a separate field of study e.g. in demography or geography. In the article, a transparent method of quantification and visualization of convergence tendencies is introduced. Czechia was selected as a case country on which convergence tendencies can be studied and illustrated. The aim of the study is to find and apply a method of measuring and analyzing the convergence tendencies of this selected country to other countries. We focused on the process of mortality, for which necessary data are available in a unified structure for most of the European countries. The analysis was based on temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 65 and life expectancy at the age of 65 years. It was proven that the “demographic nearest neighbor” in a mortality point of view for Czechia is Denmark. Such approach could be conveniently applied to any other studied process.

Changes in mortality and human longevity in Kerala: are they leading to the advanced stage?

Background During the last century, Kerala witnessed drastic mortality reduction and high improvement in longevity. This achievement is often compared with that of developed countries. However, how far the early advantages in mortality reduction have further enhanced in Kerala remains unknown. In most developed countries, advanced stage of mortality reduction and further increase in longevity was achieved mainly due to the mortality shift from adult and older ages to oldest ages (Olshansky and Ault 1986). Objectives Considering the lack of comprehensive study on the change in longevity in Kerala, this study focuses on discovering (i) the historical time-periods that provided the biggest gain to life expectancy and also the beneficiaries (by age group and sex) and (ii) the contributions of major groups of causes of death in mortality reduction and consequent improvement in longevity. Methodology and data The study uses the methodology proposed by Olshansky and Ault in 1986. It used methods such as Temporary Life Expectancy (TLE), Annual Relative Change in TLE, Decomposition of changes in longevity among different age groups (gender and spatial) and causes of deaths, for the analysis. It used data from various sources such as Census, Civil Registration System (CRS) and Directorate of Health Services (DHS), as well as survey data from Sample Registration System (SRS) and Medically Certified Causes of Deaths (MCCD) for this study. Finding and conclusion The study found that overall mortality dramatically declined in the state in the recent decades. Younger ages have contributed the most for this reduction. Therefore, further mortality reduction is possible in adult and early old ages. However, the contribution of these ages to life expectancy was lower than that of youngsters until 1991–2000 especially among males. This may indicate a slow progress towards the advanced stage of epidemiological transition characterized by high prevalence of non-communicable diseases. The paper concludes that although the health issues of infants, children, and mothers in the reproductive age group, are effectively addressed through various policies in Kerala, the state needs to focus more on the health problems of adults, especially males.

Zgony możliwe do uniknięcia – opis koncepcji oraz wyniki analizy dla Polski / Avoidable mortality – the concept end empirical study for Poland

The study is divided into theoretical end empirical part. First part presents the concept of avoidable mortality (Rutstein et al. 1976) including its further development and modifications. The objective of the second part is to examine the potential impact in medical care on changing population health in Poland from 1999 to 2008. We used the concept of avoidable mortality divided into three groups: treatable disease, preventable diseases and ischemic heart disease (Newey et al. 2004). We calculated the contribution of changes in mortality from these conditions to changes in life expectancy. The analyses were based on temporary life expectancy between birth and age 75 (e0-75). Chiang’s method was used for constructing abridged life tables, and Arriaga’s method was used for decomposition. Mortality data were obtained from the WHO mortality files using IC D-10th revision (WHO 2011).

The contribution of medical care to changing life expectancy in Germany and Poland

This paper assesses the impact of medical care on changes in mortality in east Germany and Poland before and after the political transition, with west Germany included for comparison. Building upon Rutstein's concept of unnecessary untimely deaths, we calculated the contribution of conditions considered responsive to medical care or health policy to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [ e (0–75)] for the periods 1980/1983–1988 and 1991/1992–1996/1997. Temporary life expectancy, between birth and age 75, has been consistently higher in west Germany, intermediate in east Germany and lowest in Poland. Although improving in all three regions between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, the pace of change differed between countries, resulting in a temporary widening of an initial east–west gap by the late 1980s and early 1990s. In the 1980s, in east Germany, 50–60% of the improvement was attributable to declining mortality from conditions responsive to medical care (west Germany: 30–40%). A net positive effect was also observed in Poland, although counterbalanced by deterioration in ischaemic heart disease mortality. In the former communist countries, improvements attributable to medical care in the 1980s were due, largely, to declining infant mortality. In the 1990s, they benefited also adults, specifically those aged 35+ in Poland and 55+ in Germany. A persisting east–west gap in temporary life expectancy in Germany was due, largely, to higher mortality from avoidable conditions in the east, with causes responsive to health policy contributing about half, and medical care 16% (men) to 24% (women) to the differential in 1997. The findings indicate that changes in the health care system related to the political transition were associated with improvements in life expectancy in east Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Poland. Also, differences in the quality of medical care as assessed by the concept of ‘unnecessary untimely deaths’ appear to contribute to a persisting east–west health gap. Especially in Poland and the former German Democratic Republic there remains potential for further progress that would narrow the health gap with the west.